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Random Chat, Thoughts, Posts, and/or Rants Thread

MitchC

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Antifragile

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Has anyone ever seen something like this in real life?

Not saying I’d buy one but I’m curious to actually see one in person they look cool

Check out this product on Alibaba App Newest design floating sea house water house
Source Newest design floating sea house water house on m.alibaba.comView attachment 44878


On First Nations land in the Victoria city marina they have 3 level houses, basically a way to live on the water but docked 100% of the time. Can’t float to the ocean, but then even this shouldn’t stray from the dock. Imagine the storms!
 

MTF

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Actors are storytellers. And storytelling is the essential human art. It’s how we understand who we are

I don’t mean to make it sound high-flown. It’s not. It’s discipline and repetition and failure and perseverance and dumb luck and blind faith and devotion. It’s showing up when you don’t feel like it, when you’re exhausted and you think you can’t go on. Transcendent moments come when you’ve laid the groundwork and you’re open to the moment. They happen when you do the work. In the end, it’s about the work.


- Bryan Cranston, from his autobiography A Life in Parts.

I always find it fascinating how you can find the same advice on success regardless of the field it comes from. Here it's about acting but it can apply just as well to business, sports, arts, or anything else.
 
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Andy Black

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Andy Black

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Mathuin

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Kak

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Damn. So many of these tools now. I love how simple they are.


That’s cool! I like these link tree solutions.

I have one from Linq and an associated e-business card. Love it. It only cost the business card. Got it for like 15 bucks on Amazon.

 

xShepherdx

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I genuinely can't tell if I'm dumb, or if I just don't understand how marketing firms work. (small or large)

After interviewing and asking multiple marketing agencies variations of "If I spend $X amount with you, what is the average return I could expect to see?"...

90% of the responses have been something like "Well, we can't say for sure, and it's going to take at least three months for us to really know."

I totally understand you can't guarantee results, it depends, etc. but as someone who's dropping a significant amount of money (to me) on your services, I feel like I need SOME idea of what to expect. And without performance targets/goals, how will we know when to improve things, switch channels, etc? Also, I have two years of data to start with, so it's not like we're starting from scratch.

It just feels like a total run-around "I just want your money" game where nobody will give me an answer that instills any sort of confidence in their service. It's like they expect me to just blindly use their service and hope things work out.

I'm all for giving people a chance and I understand things take time and money to get going, but blind hope doesn't quite work for me.

Maybe I'm wrong for asking what to expect, but after talking to so many people I'm starting to wonder if I'm approaching this completely wrong and asking the wrong questions.
 

MattR82

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I genuinely can't tell if I'm dumb, or if I just don't understand how marketing firms work. (small or large)

After interviewing and asking multiple marketing agencies variations of "If I spend $X amount with you, what is the average return I could expect to see?"...

90% of the responses have been something like "Well, we can't say for sure, and it's going to take at least three months for us to really know."

I totally understand you can't guarantee results, it depends, etc. but as someone who's dropping a significant amount of money (to me) on your services, I feel like I need SOME idea of what to expect. And without performance targets/goals, how will we know when to improve things, switch channels, etc? Also, I have two years of data to start with, so it's not like we're starting from scratch.

It just feels like a total run-around "I just want your money" game where nobody will give me an answer that instills any sort of confidence in their service. It's like they expect me to just blindly use their service and hope things work out.

I'm all for giving people a chance and I understand things take time and money to get going, but blind hope doesn't quite work for me.

Maybe I'm wrong for asking what to expect, but after talking to so many people I'm starting to wonder if I'm approaching this completely wrong and asking the wrong questions.
I wouldn't trust anyone giving guarantees, and yes, it takes time to work . Doesn't sound strange to me.
 
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Bekit

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I genuinely can't tell if I'm dumb, or if I just don't understand how marketing firms work. (small or large)

After interviewing and asking multiple marketing agencies variations of "If I spend $X amount with you, what is the average return I could expect to see?"...

90% of the responses have been something like "Well, we can't say for sure, and it's going to take at least three months for us to really know."

I totally understand you can't guarantee results, it depends, etc. but as someone who's dropping a significant amount of money (to me) on your services, I feel like I need SOME idea of what to expect. And without performance targets/goals, how will we know when to improve things, switch channels, etc? Also, I have two years of data to start with, so it's not like we're starting from scratch.

It just feels like a total run-around "I just want your money" game where nobody will give me an answer that instills any sort of confidence in their service. It's like they expect me to just blindly use their service and hope things work out.

I'm all for giving people a chance and I understand things take time and money to get going, but blind hope doesn't quite work for me.

Maybe I'm wrong for asking what to expect, but after talking to so many people I'm starting to wonder if I'm approaching this completely wrong and asking the wrong questions.
No, you're not dumb.

I saw how this worked from the inside in a large marketing agency where I worked for two years.

At least in that company, the employees had training but not what I would call any methods that instilled confidence that they would work.

I saw customer after customer pay thousands of dollars only to get no results.

Occasionally, our customers would get results, but not in a way that was a repeatable pattern that we could apply to other businesses and see similar results.

On the other hand, it typically really is true that legitimate marketing agencies really are that much in the dark about the results of any campaign. There are so many variables that just can't be factored into an expected set of outcomes ahead of time.
  • Running ads on Google or Facebook is always going to be dependent on Google and Facebook not pulling the rug out from under you and changing the rules. This applies to everything from being able to successfully target your desired audience, to actually having your ads appear for the right keywords (and not the wrong ones that G or F "helpfully" substitute for you), to not suddenly getting your ad banned for no reason, to trusting that the ads are actually running in the geographical region that you picked, and so on.
  • The price per click is different for every industry and keyword, meaning your cost to acquire a customer can be very different from someone else's, meaning that your "break-even point" (where it no longer makes sense to pour money into ad spend) is going to be different for every campaign.
  • The amount of competition and other people running similar ads and campaigns is different for every industry.
  • The audience sophistication will vary widely. A jaded audience who has seen variations of your campaign over and over again will respond very differently than an audience who is brand new to that kind of thing. This means that regardless of your cost per click, the response to your ad can be low or high in terms of getting qualified prospects who actually become customers.
  • Regional differences will play into the effectiveness of your campaigns.
  • The product category will change the strategies you are able to use effectively. (e.g. New invention vs mature product that everyone knows about.)
  • How much your target customer is in pain will vary compared to other businesses the marketing firm has worked with, and this will also affect which strategies are able to be successful.
  • The marketing firm employees' existing understanding of your niche will greatly affect their ability to be successful.
  • Any regulations that apply to your industry will limit the ways that you can be innovative in running campaigns. (E.g. lawyers are super restricted in how they can advertise.)
I could go on and on.

What I would expect is this: asking that question is going to continue to get you variations of, "we don't know for sure," no matter who you work with, because that's the truth, and anyone who is being honest with you has to say that.

And if you're shopping by who is giving you the best results or the biggest promised ROAS (return on ad spend), that's probably going to land you with an unethical liar who has no issue with promising you the moon.

I think it's going to come down to this:

Who has the best approach, that they can explain clearly, that makes sense to you, where you can say to yourself, "Yeah, I see that working"?
- The more proof of prior results, the better.
- The more customers they have made successful in your industry, the better.
- The more straightforward and upfront they are with you, the better. I would steer clear of anyone who makes specific promises of results, unless they're putting their money where their mouth is (e.g. if they're saying, "We'll get you a minimum of 25 customers per month," I wouldn't believe it for one second, unless it was accompanied by an arrangement like, "You only pay us if we bring you a customer." That is going to be super unlikely to find, though. If you do find it, it'll either be a unicorn who has truly worked out how to repeatedly get results in your industry, or it will be someone who is just getting started and really doesn't know their stuff, but it's structuring the deal like that in hopes of getting their first few clients.

Rather than asking, "If I spend $X amount with you, what is the average return I could expect to see," a question that's likely to get you more actionable information is, "Based on my two years of data, how confident are you that you could give me an uptick in results, and what approach would you use to make that happen?" Give them time to look at your data and make a plan and get back to you with a quote. See if their plan makes sense and if you're willing to go along with it for a long enough time to see if it is working. It'll really come down to a judgment call by you rather than any meaningful guarantee of results.
 
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BizyDad

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I genuinely can't tell if I'm dumb, or if I just don't understand how marketing firms work. (small or large)

After interviewing and asking multiple marketing agencies variations of "If I spend $X amount with you, what is the average return I could expect to see?"...

90% of the responses have been something like "Well, we can't say for sure, and it's going to take at least three months for us to really know."

I totally understand you can't guarantee results, it depends, etc. but as someone who's dropping a significant amount of money (to me) on your services, I feel like I need SOME idea of what to expect. And without performance targets/goals, how will we know when to improve things, switch channels, etc? Also, I have two years of data to start with, so it's not like we're starting from scratch.

It just feels like a total run-around "I just want your money" game where nobody will give me an answer that instills any sort of confidence in their service. It's like they expect me to just blindly use their service and hope things work out.

I'm all for giving people a chance and I understand things take time and money to get going, but blind hope doesn't quite work for me.

Maybe I'm wrong for asking what to expect, but after talking to so many people I'm starting to wonder if I'm approaching this completely wrong and asking the wrong questions.
I think it's a good question to ask. Because it will expose how a marketing firm approaches their craft.

But I think you need to understand how difficult it is to actually answer that question. Remember you're talking to a salesperson not a math nerd.

The formula for calculating ROI sounds fairly straightforward. And if you a product-based business it could be straightforward.

How much traffic will be generated to the site multiplied by a conversion rate will get you how many leads or product sales are being generated.

But if leads are being generated, you have to take that number and multiply it by another conversion rate to figure out how many sales get generated, and the marketing firm would need to know your profit margin on those sales.

And if you're in a business where customers repeat, then that should be calculated in so you'll need to know the lifetime value of your customers. You'll also need to know how long before customers repeat. Are you offering a monthly service, or a product that people purchase every so often?

Many of these numbers are not available to a marketing firm during the sales process. So the best they could do is guess. And they aren't in the best position to give a solid educated guess.

But they think you're going to hold them to their guess.

If they guess low, they have a better chance of wowing you, but you might not hire them. And if they guess high, they might not live up to their expectation and you might fire them.

So actually giving you a number is not in a marketing firm's best interest.

I'm lucky that in search engine marketing I can look at keyword research and give a rough idea of ROI. I can look at the keywords that we're going to target and get a rough idea of the intent of the searcher to assume a better or worse conversion rate.

But if you're talking to social media marketers, that's a harder calculation. They have to figure out if their audience is better than the audience that historically you used to drive the traffic for 2 years and adjust their conversion rate accordingly. But how can they know that until they actually get data?

You might think the marketing company specializes in your industry so they should know these things. But I've seen two websites and two similar areas offering the same set of services each have wildly different conversion rates. My garage door guy in the East valley does really well selling new garage doors, but loses bids on quick spring repair. Meanwhile my garage door guy in the West valley is exactly the opposite.

So the next time I get a garage door guy, which one should I use as the template?

Being a former banker, I'm really comfortable bringing up ROI in my sales meetings. But I hardly ever give an exact number. Typically I respond to the question of ROI by pointing out that the ROI gets better the longer we work together. Then I give rough timeline of when I expect our campaign to break even. And I tell them if they really want an ROI figure, I'd be happy to calculate it but I'm going to need the expected lifetime value of their customers for each of their services they offer.

And that's where that part of the conversation stops...

If you don't like the answer to your question, then follow up with a question of how long before we break even on the campaign.

If they don't want to give you a good answer to that, ask how many leads you can expect.

You can also ask how long before you see your first lead/sale.

Once you get them to give you a number or time frame, ask them how they came up with that number.

All you're really looking for is somebody who's got their neurons firing and understand the priorities of the business owner, and the process to get you there.

And ask for referrals. It's easier to trust the marketing company if you talk to three other clients and they all said, yes absolutely they got me a great ROI within 3 months or 6 months...

Lastly... Everybody always focuses on how quickly you'll start making money.

Ask them how they plan on improving their results a year from now. Two years from now.

Very few will have answers for questions like that, but the ones who do are the ones who know their stuff.
 

Antifragile

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I find this truly fascinating.

"Similarly, we do not know what is happening at the moment farther away in the universe: the light that we see from distant galaxies left them millions of years ago, and in the case of the most distant object that we have seen, the light left some eight thousand million years ago. Thus, when we look at the universe, we are seeing it as it was in the past." (Stephen Hawking, A Brief History of Time)

When we contemplate if there is life elsewhere in the universe similar to what we see on Earth... just looking at best yields the answer of "millions of years ago there was [fill the blank] and we have no idea about today". And that presumes we could actually get there, snap a photo/video and return millions of years later! Mind blowing. :jawdrop:

And Stephen Hawking, A Brief History of Time book was excellent.
 

PureA

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Haha, if this is real, you can confidently say that this guy isn't happy with his life. Wow.

I would have to be on the edge of a mental breakdown to get to that place.

edit: to be clear, I'm referring to the guy screaming.
 
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G

Guest-5ty5s4

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Haha, if this is real, you can confidently say that this guy isn't happy with his life. Wow.

I would have to be on the edge of a mental breakdown to get to that place.
I dunno, do you hear how horrible those paparazzi people are? Or is that what you mean? The guy on the phone seems to be living his best life, the guy yelling sounds deranged.
 

PureA

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I dunno, do you hear how horrible those paparazzi people are? Or is that what you mean? The guy on the phone seems to be living his best life, the guy yelling sounds deranged.
I'm referring to the guy screaming.
 
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StrikingViper69

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Haha, if this is real, you can confidently say that this guy isn't happy with his life. Wow.

I would have to be on the edge of a mental breakdown to get to that place.

edit: to be clear, I'm referring to the guy screaming.

Parparazzi are even worse than estate agents, fortunately most of us don't need to deal with them.
 

Mathuin

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Parparazzi are even worse than estate agents, fortunately most of us don't need to deal with them
Dealing with Estate Agents atm as I’m moving.

I hate them so much
 

StrikingViper69

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Dealing with Estate Agents atm as I’m moving.

I hate them so much

If I fail as a musician, my back up business will be an Estate Agents with the advertising slogan, "We're not shit!". It'll blast the competition out of the water. :rofl:
 
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xShepherdx

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Holy crap, this is all massively helpful! Thank you so much for taking the time to share.

I want to be clear that I'm not shopping based on results, but trust. I've had people guarantee me 10x ROAS (LOL) and others who won't talk about anything related to what they're going to do, prior results, etc. As an outsider it's strange, but reading your previous points it does make a lot more sense.

I've run my own ads for a while now on many of those platforms so I get that things aren't so simple, but hearing your perspective helped it "click" that I probably sound like I want guaranteed results - even though I actually just want to know I'm hiring someone who can do the job well, communicate, and is trustworthy.

Who has the best approach, that they can explain clearly, that makes sense to you, where you can say to yourself, "Yeah, I see that working"?
- The more proof of prior results, the better.
- The more customers they have made successful in your industry, the better.
- The more straightforward and upfront they are with you, the better. I would steer clear of anyone who makes specific promises of results, unless they're putting their money where their mouth is (e.g. if they're saying, "We'll get you a minimum of 25 customers per month," I wouldn't believe it for one second, unless it was accompanied by an arrangement like, "You only pay us if we bring you a customer." That is going to be super unlikely to find, though. If you do find it, it'll either be a unicorn who has truly worked out how to repeatedly get results in your industry, or it will be someone who is just getting started and really doesn't know their stuff, but it's structuring the deal like that in hopes of getting their first few clients.

The part I quoted resonates the most, as it's exactly the part where the conversation essentially stalls on their end. No shared results, no industry experience (I don't expect this, it's too niche tbh), and they're just not straightforward at all. To me, this feels super weird, but that's probably just be a hurdle I have to overcome by taking a calculated leap of faith lol.

Rather than asking, "If I spend $X amount with you, what is the average return I could expect to see," a question that's likely to get you more actionable information is, "Based on my two years of data, how confident are you that you could give me an uptick in results, and what approach would you use to make that happen?" Give them time to look at your data and make a plan and get back to you with a quote. See if their plan makes sense and if you're willing to go along with it for a long enough time to see if it is working. It'll really come down to a judgment call by you rather than any meaningful guarantee of results.
This is golden advice and clears up a lot for me. This is a much better question and giving them access to my data before committing to a deal would be hugely beneficial.

Thanks again, I feel less dumb and more confident now.
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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How long is a normal amount of time to search for a tenant for a single family rental property? Should it take at least 1 month? When is it too long and time to fire your property manager?
 

xShepherdx

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Thanks so much for taking the time to respond, this is hugely helpful!

I think it's a good question to ask. Because it will expose how a marketing firm approaches their craft.

But I think you need to understand how difficult it is to actually answer that question. Remember you're talking to a salesperson not a math nerd.
Based on the average size of the firms I've talked to (very small, relatively) I think I'm actually talking to a technician 90% of the time. There's very little selling going on, it's never clear what I get out of the deals, and all they talk about is that they used to work for X big firm and the latest platform changes.

Many of these numbers are not available to a marketing firm during the sales process. So the best they could do is guess. And they aren't in the best position to give a solid educated guess.

But they think you're going to hold them to their guess.

If they guess low, they have a better chance of wowing you, but you might not hire them. And if they guess high, they might not live up to their expectation and you might fire them.

So actually giving you a number is not in a marketing firm's best interest.
I think you're totally correct and this is the biggest problem and is why things stall/get weird. Compared to my current approach, I believe Bekit's question (quoted in my post above) is a far better way to get the answers I'm looking for.

Typically I respond to the question of ROI by pointing out that the ROI gets better the longer we work together.
This is where my unfamiliarity with the space shows IMO. I've heard this many times and it's always a red flag to me because - in my mind - of course, they want me on the hook for as long as possible. That's how they make their money!

But reading through the responses it seems this might actually be the truth, not just a way to get me to stay for additional chunks of time.

And that's where that part of the conversation stops...

If you don't like the answer to your question, then follow up with a question of how long before we break even on the campaign.

If they don't want to give you a good answer to that, ask how many leads you can expect.

You can also ask how long before you see your first lead/sale.

Once you get them to give you a number or time frame, ask them how they came up with that number.
These are super helpful - especially the last one. Thinking through it now, I feel like I've been missing the "why" from a lot of my conversations. As in, why things take 3-6 months, why they're unable to tell me anything, why they won't say what their strategy is, etc. But your last question will definitely help me iron those wrinkles out.

All you're really looking for is somebody who's got their neurons firing and understand the priorities of the business owner, and the process to get you there.
Literally for the last two months lol. But the advice shared here will definitely help me overcome this hurdle.

Lastly... Everybody always focuses on how quickly you'll start making money.

Ask them how they plan on improving their results a year from now. Two years from now.

Very few will have answers for questions like that, but the ones who do are the ones who know their stuff.
This is fantastic. Shifting the timeframe from today -> ~2 years will be huge for both parties IMO.

I'll admit I got 1) scared of hiring a bad marketing firm, and 2) too focused on near-term growth. You and @Bekit have helped me shift my perspective, slow down a bit, and refine my questioning/approach with these firms.

Dang, I love this place lol. Thanks again!
 
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Antifragile

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How long is a normal amount of time to search for a tenant for a single family rental property? Should it take at least 1 month? When is it too long and time to fire your property manager?

Lol

Depends on:

1. Vacancy rates in the area
2. Absorption rates
3. Size and desirability of the said property
4. Your asking rent compared to competitors
5. Quality of the house, location, access, yard, views, transit access etc.


Yeah, you should fire your manager for not explaining any of the above.

You are welcome. ;)
And good luck.
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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Lol

Depends on:

1. Vacancy rates in the area
2. Absorption rates
3. Size and desirability of the said property
4. Your asking rent compared to competitors
5. Quality of the house, location, access, yard, views, transit access etc.


Yeah, you should fire your manager for not explaining any of the above.

You are welcome. ;)
And good luck.
Thanks. Yeah, I've had to really press them for any feedback from the showings they've had. It doesn't seem like great service on their part, but what I'm asking is timeframe i.e. this is like "just getting started" as far as searching for tenants goes, or if this is a pretty long time on market already and I should have found my tenant myself instead.

Thing is that I don't really have time to schedule showings, which is why I hired them.
 

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Anyone ever been to a Burning Man? Looks like the event has returned from a pandemic hiatus.

Is it a SXSW for hippies? Because I have a little of both, LOL.
 
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Daniel A

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GET "Marathon, Revised and Updated 5th Edition: The Ultimate Training Guide: Advice, Plans, and Programs for Half and Full Marathons" by Hal Higdon on Kindle for $1.99


I just bought it although I ran my first marathon a little over a month ago. I used Hal Higdon's app for 100% of my marathon training, so I don't hesitate to share his book which is on sale.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Yikes, a box office weekend of $7 million. And that's at inflationary numbers.

Movie theaters are in trouble.


The last time I went to a movie theater I think Obama was president.

I offered my wife a visit to the theater to see Top Gun since she's a fan and she looked at me incredulously and said "hell no" - instead we streamed it in our own theatre... no gunky seats, no sticky floors, no driving, no traffic, no obnoxious teens, no coughing spectators three seats down... the value skew of staying home in the comfort of your own home will be the end of the theatre experience, unless value skew is somehow dramatically raised.
 

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