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The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

Bekit

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That's pretty scary. I wonder why, then, young people mostly get C0VlD-19 and are seemingly unscathed, and can potentially be carriers.
I would not set much stock in the idea that young people escape "unscathed."

Yes, it has been drilled into our heads by the media, but I don't believe it matches the evidence.
  1. China published a study that 80% of patients had mild disease, 15% had severe disease, and 5% were critical.
  2. The media latched on to that 80% number and the game was on.
  3. "Mild" transformed to "asymptomatic" or "you may never even know you had it."
  4. Come to find out, that "mild" segment from the original Chinese study included people with pneumonia. Once you needed oxygen, you were "severe," and once you needed intensive care, you were "critical."
Trouble is, the actual evidence (accounts from real recovered patients) is very hard to find. In some countries, it's too early to have large numbers of recovered people. In other cases *cough China cough*, the evidence is being actively and forcibly suppressed from view.

People are flippantly expecting to get this disease and recover, like they always do with the flu. But if it is like the recovery prognosis from SARS, people's lives could be permanently changed.

In 2012, I went to Haiti, thinking I was invincible. I was in excellent health; pretty much the most energetic person I knew.

I came down with malaria, cholera, and dengue fever while I was there.

My health has never been the same. I now have to completely sit out things I loved to do, like games of ultimate Frisbee. I had extreme fatigue for 4 years (for instance, just a simple task like taking a shower consumed what felt like 3/4ths of my energy for the day). I experience pain on a daily basis and get sick easily. I have to stick to an extreme diet in order to be able to function.

So now I have a very healthy caution about getting exposed to an unknown disease.

And nothing I have seen in the actual evidence has reassured me that this is a disease that ANYONE will escape unscathed. Even if you live, like most children seem to do, no one knows if there will be after effects (like how shingles crops up later in life of those who have had chicken pox, or like how adults who survived polio often develop post-polio syndrome). It's way too early to tell.

I fear that a lot of young people are in for a rude awakening when they get sick.
 
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million$$$smile

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So I am going to state the obvious, mainly for my benefit but we're going to apply simple business strategy to stay calm. We're faced with a new set of circumstances, and I am mindful of the old book "Who Moved My Cheese." People are resistant to change, and I can lump that in with the discussion(s) we have had here about normalcy bias.

Thank you Vig.
Man, I needed that. Really needed that.
Sometimes business decisions, life decisions almost seem overwhelming.

I need to take a step back, breathe deep, and take a walk.

Everything else can wait. All the questions that I just don't have answers to.

Block them out, clear the mind, pray (or meditate) and relax.

This post was meant for me.

This. Too. Shall. Pass.
 
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Suzanne Bazemore

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The mortality of covid Is considerably lower in young people, but I would expect that organ injury (morbidity) would be significant and possibly in similar numbers at all ages. This is my speculation of course.

young people likely die less because they have more physiologic reserve, which means that they have more unused capacity. For example with the lungs, they are typically healthy in young people and say they are typically using 30% of their total lungs ability (this number is not accurate, I didn’t look it up, just used as example). In an older person, especially smokers and others with lung disease, they may already be using 90% of their lungs ability.

these older people can’t sustain breathing on their own with even a minor insult.

p.s. if you smoke stop immediately. Death rates appear to be 2-3x in smokers compared to non smokers.
@GIlman, thank you for taking the time to answer my question. The example you use regarding lung capacity is a great illustration of the impact age difference can make. Also, I texted a family member immediately and told them what you said and to stop smoking, so if anyone else on this forum smokes, and they listen to you, think of all the lives you could save just from that single statement. If they listen.

In 2012, I went to Haiti, thinking I was invincible. I was in excellent health; pretty much the most energetic person I knew.

I came down with malaria, cholera, and dengue fever while I was there.

My health has never been the same.
@Bekit, thank you for sharing your personal experience regarding your trip to Haiti. I can't imagine having all three of those diseases simultaneously. By the way, you still seem like you might be the person in a room with the most energy.
 

InspireHD

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Amazon is suspending shipments into their warehouses from third party sellers. They need to prioritize warehouse space for important and essential supplies.

Someone on Facebook was freaking out because they cant read. They read it as amazon was suspending shipments out to consumers unless it was medical supplies, essential items, etc. Someone was whining because they ordered stuff for their kid’s birthday party.
 
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drpeppehr

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It hurts me to say it, but I feel like America, as a whole, is just a bunch of children right now who can’t listen to their parents.

I almost think the government should rip the band aid off and force lockdown now. Just something that’s currently on my mind.

Trying to take this time to grow some Fastlane skills!

You can't judge America as a whole. Each state is responding differently. My state is pretty much on lockdown. Everywhere is closed. We're told to stay home. Restaraunts, bars, and gyms are closed. It's like a ghost town.


On a side note, is this good time to continue working on my web design business? What do you guys think?
 

Trevor Kuntz

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FYI, to anyone who thinks that C0VlD-19 isn’t going to kill them, know that the insurance companies have only agreed to cover the cost of C0VlD-19 TESTING.

If you get the virus and require hospitalization, there is no guarantee that health insurance companies are going to cover the full cost of your care. Therefore, it is both physically AND financially prudent for you to do everything possible to minimize your chances of catching the virus.
 

MTEE1985

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  • If you are quarantined, you can exercise. If you aren't, get out and get some fresh air. Get moving. Get your adrenaline going. Release some of those stress endorphins. Take a longer walk than you have taken before, and do it again tomorrow.
  • Invest in the kids. Really be present for any younger ones you have around. Intentional. Focused. They might be stressed also, but YOU can remedy that simply by meeting their emotional needs. Be there. Invest. Calm. Engage.

Amen brother. We are combining the 2 on a daily basis.

311893119031191

Edit: Made it to the top!31205
 
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GIlman

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FYI, to anyone who thinks that C0VlD-19 isn’t going to kill them, know that the insurance companies have only agreed to cover the cost of C0VlD-19 TESTING.

If you get the virus and require hospitalization, there is no guarantee that health insurance companies are going to cover the full cost of your care. Therefore, it is both physically AND financially prudent for you to do everything possible to minimize your chances of catching the virus.

Not only this, but young people tend to work in less stable jobs, servers, hostess, fast food, etc, etc, etc...The longer this lasts, the longer they will be out of jobs, and the greater the financial impact to them. Even if the government gives out some for of payment to each of them for a brief period of time...this has to be repaid at some point with interest, in the form of increased taxation in the future. So the short term financial help will come at a life long financial cost.

Not only that, but their parents are more vulnerable then they are. How many of these younger generations rely on parental support for housing, cellphone, car insurance, cars, food, tuition, etc....what happens if your parents die or are disabled. There are lots and lots of parents 40-60+ years old with kids that are teens or very young adults.

Even though we think of ourselves as individuals, we are part of a chain interlinked with other people of various ages and health. If one link in the chain is broken it can have massive impact on other people linked to them.

EDIT: Just out of curiosity, I wonder how many life insurance companies have suspended underwriting new policies? And, how many life insurance companies may become insolvent and unable to honor their financial obligations to people with life insurance policies. The actuarial tables could be easily flipped on their head from an event like this.
 

Andy Black

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So I am going to state the obvious, mainly for my benefit but we're going to apply simple business strategy to stay calm. We're faced with a new set of circumstances, and I am mindful of the old book "Who Moved My Cheese." People are resistant to change, and I can lump that in with the discussion(s) we have had here about normalcy bias.

A few times over the last few days, I have become overwhelmed within my own thoughts. What about... this? What if .... this... happens. What about that?

A few coping strategies :
  • people are refreshing spirituality - and if that is your thing, this is an excellent time to double down. If you "believed" during good times, now is the time to put that "faith" to the test
  • exercise. If you are quarantined, you can exercise. If you aren't, get out and get some fresh air. Get moving. Get your adrenaline going. Release some of those stress endorphins. Take a longer walk than you have taken before, and do it again tomorrow.
  • Invest in the kids. Really be present for any younger ones you have around. Intentional. Focused. They might be stressed also, but YOU can remedy that simply by meeting their emotional needs. Be there. Invest. Calm. Engage. They may never forget this time.
  • Take one block at a time. How do we solve business issues? We focus on the immediate need. We look long term, but then we take action in smaller steps. Methodical steps.
  • Slow everything down. It's ok to just BE, today. It's ok to let yourself relax a bit. To let go of the stress.
  • Find some new podcasts. Find some new music. Find some new religious streams. What ever. Find some new things of interest.
  • Let your life begin to adjust.
I have a vehicle whose lease was up... this week. I just called the bank and said I wasn't going to deal with that for a few months. I wasn't bringing it back, wasn't buying it, wasn't doing anything. That's one thing I am just not dealing with today. Know what the bank said? OK. Problem solved. I will deal with that some other time. BTW the worker from the bank I talked with? Today was her first day working at home. New reality for her, in her job, talking to me.

Amazon sellers in the United States are freaked out because Amazon announced overnight suspension of FBA shipments to Amazon. Know what my reaction is? OK. I will deal with that as it flows. I'll handle it. If I allow myself (like the hundreds of posts on their forum) to get my underwear all tied up in knots about it, I am not problem solving.

My business doesn't stop. Heck, I want to meet with more retail buyers, and now I don't have to fly to see them! I can SAVE MONEY and they would totally understand... they don't want to meet me face to face. So over the next few weeks, I will be changing my business to ZOOM with as many prospective customers as will take my invitation, and I may NEVER go back to the way it was.

My warehouse rent is due at the end of the month. I will deal with that... at the end of the month. There will probably be some forced flexibility there. However, prime example. NOT ON MY LIST TO DEAL WITH TODAY.

I have a family wedding in April. Guess what? NOT ON MY LIST TO DEAL WITH TODAY.

Prioritize like you would ANY business issue. Make this transition clinical. To coin a phrase from Steven Covey(?) put FIRST THINGS FIRST. Big rocks. Work only on the things that matter. Let some other things slow down for a while. Let some not so big priorities sit there.

Clear your head. Focus only on what matters. Turn off the TV news - there's plenty of other people that will fill you on on critical developments. For example, my buddy just messaged me - Florida is shutting bars and BREWERIES at 5PM. Now, I might let myself REACT to that a bit... I need to grab a few brewskis for 30 days coverage. But the news found me. I didn't have to study every late breaking press conference. The things that are important will work their way into your bunker.

Wash your hands. Seriously, were you people not washing your hands before?

This was just my current brain dump, as much to recalibrate where I am spending energy. Hope someone out there in the internet needed it as much as I did.
Great post @Vigilante.

Kill one rock at a time, starting with the rock right in front of you.


It may help folks to have two lists: What needs done today, and what doesn’t.

Start every day with a blank “today list” and only add tasks that need done *today*.

Go kill some rocks.
 

Andy Black

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windchaser

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In medicine, we discuss 2 things. Mortality which is death rate, and morbidity which is long term health effect.

The mortality of covid Is considerably lower in young people, but I would expect that organ injury (morbidity) would be significant and possibly in similar numbers at all ages. This is my speculation of course.

young people likely die less because they have more physiologic reserve, which means that they have more unused capacity. For example with the lungs, they are typically healthy in young people and say they are typically using 30% of their total lungs ability (this number is not accurate, I didn’t look it up, just used as example). In an older person, especially smokers and others with lung disease, they may already be using 90% of their lungs ability.

these older people can’t sustain breathing on their own with even a minor insult.

p.s. if you smoke stop immediately. Death rates appear to be 2-3x in smokers compared to non smokers.

when it comes to organ damage though, young people can be susceptible to this for the same reason old people are. Think polio and the long term health consequences that disease had when children were infected.

I want to reiterate that it is not clear how much impact covid has on heart, lungs, liver, and other organs. It may take years to really understand the impact.

but what this does mean, is that young people should not take this lightly. There are health impacts suspected beyond just death. Impacts which could effect them for the rest of their lives. And health impacts which may compromise them in the future if another pandemic comes through.

Absolutely. There are some studies showing that many recovered patients have lung damage reducing their lung capacity on 20-30% although it is early to tell.
In Europe, around 15% of UCI patients are under 50 and despite they try to hide it, it is starting to rise concern.

I agree with you, people should not take this likely.
In my country, Spain, we have been seeing very reckless behaviour, especially by young people who believe they are "in the clear" for being young, and now we are in lockdown and a week behind Italy in terms of deaths and contagions and our hospitals are about to collapse... it is a shame we had to come to this for people to react and take it seriously.
 

Trevor Kuntz

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Probably because from a public health standpoint, it is F*cking stupid to call a named disease by an informal name, especially given how stupid at least half of the general public is.

Any messaging from government officials or media should be using the official named terms for the virus (SARS-Cov-2) or the official named term for the disease, C0VlD-19. Even “Coronavirus” is not really the proper term, since it is describing a family of viruses. Using multiple terms to describe one thing jumbles messaging. Anyone with any understanding of branding and messaging would know that. Combine that with public stupidity and it’s pretty clear why it is moronic to use informal terms.

I noticed today people are more worried about insensitivities by calling it a Chinese virus or, "the wuhan virus." Could people be any more ridiculous?

This could be a good thing honestly. The idiots of this country are starting to see the next shiny object thing to be enraged by and weeks of debate will ensue.
 
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NovaAria

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Speaking of blood cells and corona virus, here is an interesting study coming from China.

Group A blood types seem more susceptible to catching it, while O type people are the least likely. The difference is of only +5% for A people and -8% for O types, but its interesting regardless.

Personally, my family is all B so this doesnt concern us, but it's an interesting observation.
 

GIlman

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Probably because from a public health standpoint, it is F*cking stupid to call a named disease by an informal name, especially given how stupid at least half of the general public is.

Any messaging from government officials or media should be using the official named terms for the virus (SARS-Cov-2) or the official named term for the disease, C0VlD-19. Even “Coronavirus” is not really the proper term, since it is describing a family of viruses. Using multiple terms to describe one thing jumbles messaging. Anyone with any understanding of branding and messaging would know that. Combine that with public stupidity and it’s pretty clear why it is moronic to use informal terms.

The best name would be something that is not abstract "Deadly lung crowned virus", yes its not correct, but the best name is one that conveys information as well as identification. SARS-COV-2 and C0VlD-19 are horrible names because they keep it abstract, but that's why people have such a hard time understanding doctors and medical issues to begin with.
 

Premixedd

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I think today I will declare to my employer that I am taking minimum 2 weeks of leave. If they respond negatively I will just quit. I work in what I would call a high risk environment with people who regularly use public transit and the rest who think this is a joke or will be gone in a week.

Not to mention I grew up with mild asthma.... plus CDC not testing younger people my age would mean my symptoms would have to be severe to get treatment or a test.
 
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Cat Lady

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BUSINESS COVID STUFF: I'm mostly lucky*, in that my income isn't totally halted from this, because I'm in digital/broadcast media. But a lot of my customers/listeners are in service industry and their income has been all but halted. Not to mention, speaking gigs have been completely cancelled for the next two months. My wholesaler wrote to say that for sure their retail orders have all but died due to lockdowns, and to expect insignificant checks right now.

It's very hard as someone in media to know what to do during this time: provide entertainment for people that has nothing to do with how massively the landscape shifted? or provide useful information but add to the deluge?

Yesterday I ended up deciding to start a daily short economic policy podcast/radio segment that explains the responses to C0VlD-19 for people without a business background, launching this week. I already have the income and distribution strategies since I already work in media. I've assembled my team and most of the components for it in less than 24 hours. (If you want to see more process, check out my process thread).

*I am unfortunately, American, and therefore stuck with our terrible health insurance system, and I'm immunosuppressed so I'm completely self-isolated now for my safety. But all in all, young and otherwise healthy with stable, diversified income and savings.
 

loop101

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I think today I will declare to my employer that I am taking minimum 2 weeks of leave. If they respond negatively I will just quit. I work in what I would call a high risk environment with people who regularly use public transit and the rest who think this is a joke or will be gone in a week.

Not to mention I grew up with mild asthma.... plus CDC not testing younger people my age would mean my symptoms would have to be severe to get treatment or a test.

The next 2 weeks may not be so bad, since less people have it now than will have it in 2 weeks, plus the country is on a voluntary self-quarantine. In 2 weeks, more people will have it, and they may tell people to go out and travel again.

I expect after 2 weeks they will extend it again, and again, and again. They just can't tell everyone up front that they are doing an 12 week quarantine, people would go crazy.

They might have some "cheat days" between quarantines. Like 2 weeks quarantine, 1 week normal, repeated until it is solved. During the cheat week, people would probably still stay home because they would be use to doing it.

The first 2 week quarantine will be up on April 1st, so they might say, "April Fools! Everyone stay home for another 2 weeks!", lol.
 

Trevor Kuntz

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3526 new cases and 345 new deaths in Italy: Bergamo (Lombardy region) has run out of intensive care beds. Unions are demanding the closure of post offices after the deaths of 2 postal workers who were on their job until a few days ago.

If package services are stopped globally or in the US, expect even more problems personal and financial problems. Hopefully US companies and the federal government (USPS) will have better protections for US Fedex, UPS, and USPS workers, but I'm not hopeful.

Source is in Italian, so use Google Translate
 
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Kak

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Probably because from a public health standpoint, it is F*cking stupid to call a named disease by an informal name, especially given how stupid at least half of the general public is.

Any messaging from government officials or media should be using the official named terms for the virus (SARS-Cov-2) or the official named term for the disease, C0VlD-19. Even “Coronavirus” is not really the proper term, since it is describing a family of viruses. Using multiple terms to describe one thing jumbles messaging. Anyone with any understanding of branding and messaging would know that. Combine that with public stupidity and it’s pretty clear why it is moronic to use informal terms.

And the great debate begins! Hahaha.

You’ll have to find someone else to do it with though because I don’t give a shit. :rofl:
 

Trevor Kuntz

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So far, your posts in this thread have been as much of a contribution as Rivolis, so keep it up!

And the great debate begins! Hahaha.

You’ll have to find someone else to do it with though because I don’t give a shit. :rofl:
 

ShamanKing

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Ing

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5 -15% of people with health problems have Coronavirus es in them. Since about 30 years the same.
The only difference this year is, that someone invented a Test for Coronavirus. Btw. The test isn’t prooved to do right yet.
But someone earns a lot of money.

And : this year the number of ill people is a bit UNDER the longyears average.
 

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5 -15% of people with health problems have Coronavirus es in them. Since about 30 years the same.
The only difference this year is, that someone invented a Test for Coronavirus. Btw. The test isn’t prooved to do right yet.
But someone earns a lot of money.

And : this year the number of ill people is a bit UNDER the longyears average.

That's the only difference, eh?

You are...literally...insane.

My hope for you is that this is just a language barrier and broken English.
 
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Bekit

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5 -15% of people with health problems have Coronavirus es in them. Since about 30 years the same.
The only difference this year is, that someone invented a Test for Coronavirus. Btw. The test isn’t prooved to do right yet.
But someone earns a lot of money.

And : this year the number of ill people is a bit UNDER the longyears average.
This is a bit of an incomplete look at the idea of a coronavirus.

Up until 2002, there were 4 known coronaviruses that affected humans. They produced symptoms of the common cold. When you say that people have been experiencing health problems for at least 30 years from coronaviruses, they were probably suffering from one of these 4 viruses.

(Keep in mind that there are many more than 4 coronaviruses in the world. Different coronaviruses affect other animals, such as dogs, birds, pigs, or bats. However, only 4 coronaviruses actually affected humans.)

In 2003, a 5th coronavirus was identified in humans: SARS. SARS caused 8,096 cases and 774 deaths. [source]

In 2012, a 6th coronavirus was identified in humans: MERS. MERS has caused about 2,494 cases and 858 deaths. [source]

In 2019, a 7th coronavirus was identified in humans, and it was initially termed a "Novel" coronavirus because its features were different from the coronaviruses we knew up until that point.

Now, we know that 7th coronavirus as "SARS-CoV-2" and we know the disease it produces as "C0VlD-19."

So yes, they recently created a test to detect the presence of this new coronavirus. Because it was spreading to a lot of people and producing extreme disease symptoms, including organ failure and death.

The development of a test did not bring this coronavirus pandemic into the world.

The pathogen came into the world, and people responded by making a test.
 
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Bekit

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Data models from reported infections in China suggest that up to 79% of all infections were caused by people NOT KNOWN TO BE INFECTED.

In other words: you're most likely to catch it from someone who doesn't know they are sick and you can't tell is sick.

Just another factor supporting the plea to stay home, even if you don't think you're sick.

 

Kak

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Data models from reported infections in China suggest that up to 79% of all infections were caused by people NOT KNOWN TO BE INFECTED.

In other words: you're most likely to catch it from someone who doesn't know they are sick and you can't tell is sick.

Just another factor supporting the plea to stay home, even if you don't think you're sick.


Makes me want to be tested.

Imagine if 10-20x as many Americans have had this than they initially thought. That is actually good news because it means we have recoveries that have fought it off. These are also people that can re-enter the world without worry about infection or spreading.
 
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Siddhartha

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