A Summary Thread for the C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic discussion...

[Andreas Thiel]

The Coronavirus thread has gotten really hard to parse, so how about a summary thread.

Important:

This is probably doomed to fail, but please discuss these summaries in the Discussion thread (HOT TOPIC - The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...) and only add your own summaries and additions here.


Here my high level summary of the two camps. Feel free to add summaries regarding the numbers or other aspects as well as your own take on the high level situation.

The Pro-Lockdown Enforcement Camp position:

We need to flatten the curve by slowing down the amount of new infections:

The most important point are long term effects and the fact that intensity of contact can change how severely active cases progress.
Apart from that, flattening the curve would not make any difference if all the properties of the virus were constant. Eventually the same amount of people would get infected and the same amount of people would die.

There are many variables though, that make flattening the curve worth it. Assume the baseline mortality per age group looked like this:
70-80: 10%
40-70: 2%
0 -40: 0.5%

Those percentages go up when people don't receive the proper intensive care (like access to ventilators). If the curve is flat, then the health system is never under any stress.
If those numbers go up to 30% percent in the 70-80, then 66% of the deaths in that age group could have been prevented, leading to a worse bottom line for the steep curve.
The percentages also change depending on the intensity of exposure to the virus. Lockdowns and restraint minimizes them and leads to the more desirable outcome.

Initially people hoped that the restrictions could become unnecessaryin summer, but now seasons are not expected to make a difference. Still, reducing the numbers by flattening the curve also means more people will benefit from a vaccine once it is available.
Economic troubles are temporary and there should be a fast recovery once the lockdown can be lifted. Death, on the other hand, is permanent.


The Anti-Enforcement Camp position:

Once a vaccine is available, most of the potential damage will already be locked in. Access to ventilators does not improve the numbers as much as many people make it seem. Most people who need a ventilator die either way.
While there will be some people who die because they do not get access to a ventilator, the side effects of a lockdown and Corona related restrictions are likely to kill more people than a health system under virus caused stress does. For example surgery that is postponed can be deadly, cancer might not get diagnosed because people are hesitant to go to a hospital, many people won't be able to afford the healthcare they could pay for before losing their jobs ... etc.

Not imposing a lockdown also does not mean that no protection for the elderly is introduced at all. There just has never been a discussion about what alternate measures could be taken to provide more targeted protection.

Finally, the other damage done by the lockdown also must be taken into consideration when we look at the bottom line. People don't just commit suicide, many people will live in poverty. Some entrepreneurs will go out of business permanently. The snowball effect could lead to a multi-year recession instead of a quick recovery.

While this summary focuses on the lockdown numbers, there is also the aspect of the erosion of the freedom of the individual due to the government policies. That aspect probably deserves its own post with examples and some elaboration.

 

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