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- #1,321
Since you're good at reading sentiment, do you see any ramifications on Bitcoin one way or the other based on the results of the elections?
Yes, ALOT.
So... Bitcoin and Gold react to the Dollar which reacts to Economy. I put a big fat asterisk* over stocks because it's completely decoupled from the economy, and has the biggest divergence in history (which on a whole other topic will lead to 1930s stuff). So I ignore stocks and use no correlation to it other than broad market all equities sell off which isn't likely anymore unless some financial sector's stress fracture right now breaks (which I am betting it doesn't so as long as the Fed props things up and the DXY hasn't quite hit inflation yet aka... a mid-term window before it closes)
Anyways.. back to elections and it's affect on the US Dollar:
- We got a wild card of a candidate that equates to almost a guaranteed full out Cold War between the two biggest economies in the world (US and China) during an economic recession (possibly Depression with Black Swan event to trigger it on the brink).
- Result: DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with high chance it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
- The same wild card candidate will also almost guaranteed to dig into JPow's a$$ and harass him over and over and over again the minute any significant stock market drops (because Stock Market = Economy apparently).
- Result: JPow will likely print more US Dollars than he'd do with the other candidate. More dollar supply = DXY goes down. With that threat of a wild card.. again.. DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with high chance it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
- With 110% Uncertainty any new stimulus is coming or not coming.. the DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with a higher chance that it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
- There is a good chance if Trump loses, he will have to be physically forced out of the White House by the military. That is a scary thought. Uncertainty = DXY does NOT go up.
There is significant reason why Russia and China have completely dumped the US Dollar (officially completed as of a few months ago) and have accumulated physical Gold in the past decade. They may not be my most favorite governments in the world, but they for sure aren't dumb. The long-term motive behind it is very concerning.
There is significant reason why Italy has done the same and sits on a HUGE physical gold reserve. If Italexit were to ever happen (which is very quite possible the further we see how international travel is the absolute last thing to recover to normal) and the stress fracture finally cracks.. Italy is already pegged to something worth lots (and will be even more by then).
We, the US, have been selling physical gold. We have never been further away from the gold standard while other super power countries have went more towards it. That divergence is scary in the mid-long term.
Anyways.. I say all that to say..
Bitcoin and Gold will likely continue going up as we near November. DXY to hit major resistance and likely continue it's fall as the first stimulus supply of printed money makes its way through the system and it's effects become more tangible.
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