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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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mguerra

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I don't know. I still think (besides investment purposes,) 90% of the use of cryptocurrencies is buying crack on DarkNet markets. That's the reason it has value. Bitcoin is going to be a target for Law Enforcement because of that, and if they have their way the value of BTC is going to nosedive like an eagle going in for a fish.

Expert consensus:

View attachment 32270

View attachment 32273



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Just be educated on what you're investing in. Like when you buy stock in Google, you're placing a bet that Google is going to succeed. When you buy Bitcoin you're placing a bet that Bitcoin is going to suceed. You're basically investing in a company that helps people send money anonymously to drug dealers. That is the primary use of Bitcoin. Anything else is naive. I don't care about the moral implications of purchasing guns or drugs.. it's not my business what people buy. I just don't think it's a safe bet. I think the odds of LE shutting down a currency that's primarily used to buy illegal goods is pretty high.

The FBI is going to be cracking down on it. The IRS is going to be cracking down on it. And once that happens, the bubble is going to pop. I mean if you want to gamble on it before it pops.. go for it.. but Bitcoin, I can almost say with 100% certainty, is not here to stay. Other cryptos are potentially a different story.
Thanks for that information, brother. I didn't know this issues about BTC and drug dealers. You've changed my mind about trying to speculate on BTC for a while.

Personally I'm a big believer in blockchain technology and think there's a lot of money to be made if you invest in the right ones. Meaning the ones that solves real-world, real-people problems.

As far as other cryptos goes, can you share your thoughts which ones have a brighter future and why?

Thanks in advance,
 

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Bearcorp

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Thought this thread might have been a bit busier recently, BTC up, ETH up, DeFi gone crazy, is anyone on here still investing/trading/watching the crypto space?
 

Timmy C

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Thought this thread might have been a bit busier recently, BTC up, ETH up, DeFi gone crazy, is anyone on here still investing/trading/watching the crypto space?

Yes mate I have purchased more Vechain a few days ago and i just made another purchase of ETH.


Precious Metals and cryptocurrency I am heavily invested in right now.
 

scottmsul

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Thought this thread might have been a bit busier recently, BTC up, ETH up, DeFi gone crazy, is anyone on here still investing/trading/watching the crypto space?
I bought a lot of BTC back in May around the halving. The last two halvings were followed by bull markets that lasted 12-18 months, so I'm fairly optimistic.

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The way I think about it, price is an equilibrium between supply and demand. For bitcoin, supply is the number of new bitcoin sold each day, and demand is the number of new dollars sold each day. Dividing new dollars by new bitcoin gives units of (dollars/BTC), eg a price. There's three components to understanding bitcoin supply and demand: difficulty adjustments, halvings, and network effects.

Difficulty adjustments keep the supply constant. Currently 6.25 bitcoin are issued every 10 minutes, and miners will sell some of that in order to pay for electricity. Every two weeks, the difficulty is readjusted to keep blocks at 10 minutes. So the supply curve is extremely inelastic, even flat or negative. If the price skyrockets, the same amount of bitcoin get mined (unlike most commodities, eg oil), and less might get sold since miners don't have to use as many BTC to pay for electricity.

Halvings introduce supply shocks. Every four years the number of new BTC issued per block drops in half, with the most recent being in May. Naively, this should double the BTC price, assuming the price is determined by inflows and outflows. However it takes a while to adjust the price because most of the selling volume probably isn't miners but day traders or long-term holders selling their position. I'm curious to see data on this.

Network effects are the real kicker though. One of bitcoin's main use cases is digital gold - it preserves wealth but doesn't pay interest (which is good right now given low interest rates and potentially high inflation). Most investors don't like bitcoin as a store of value because of high volatility. However, as price goes up, volatility goes down, so demand should go up. The fact that bitcoin's demand should increase with price is rather crazy.

The market cap is only $200B which is small compared to many stocks and very small compared to gold. Because it's small in relative terms there's a lot of upside so it's a pretty asymmetrical bet. An econometrics guy under the pseudonym Plan B is predicting $288K for this cycle using a stock-to-flow model but that feels high IMO. The (cycle peak/price at halving) were about 100x and 30x for the last two halvings respectively, so it may be getting weaker each time. 10x seems pretty reasonable though. In the end it's unpredictable but the outlook seems pretty good right now.
 

Timmy C

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Bitcoin has so many flaws.

1. It is replicateable. It would be difficult, but if it grows large enough there will be secondary and tertiary coins with self-sustaining networks as well. They can overtake Bitcoin if they are ‘better’ and crush all crypto credibility as a long term SOV.

2. If Bitcoin is a currency then it needs to keep moving. If it is deflationary this disincentivizes movement as a currency as people hold. This makes Bitcoin more of an asset.

As an asset it gives no value to the holder, and it’s actually a very poor asset to hold. Ponzi-esque.

I am not bearish on Bitcoin.

I think it’s strong and will probably remain strong for the time being, but I am not sold as a full on believer. I think it has a chance otherwise I wouldn't be invested.
 

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Some of Bitcoin's biggest problem is that it is still small enough to be manipulated. Some big holders can sway the market to "crash" and then buy even more. For that reason people should be careful. Adoption has a long way to go.

I believe in the technology, as in "money for the internet". It is actually built for the internet.
Really, its security features is something we have never seen before. Don't get hung up too much in those crypto exchanges that are hacked every now and then. This is about hackers getting access to their private keys. When you leave these keys exposed to be stolen through the Internet it's bound to happen. The network itself has never been hacked. And that is ridiculous, if you think about the players that would like to see it dead and buried.

If you use those hardware wallets to pay for goods, you are infinitely more secure against fraud compared to using credit cards and other popular solutions on the internet. Look at the numbers when it comes to credit card fraud. It's about hundreds of millions each year. Bitcoin solves this problem.
 

DaanH

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Is there a bot for day tradying crypto anyone ever ran into one?
Yes serveral: Nefertiti, 3commas, Apextrader. I personally use Altrady tradingplatform from where I can maintain an excellent overview of my buy and sell orders on several exchanges.
 
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James Fend

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Long time, no see guys... I am back. 2020 has been bat shit crazy for me on a personal level, it would make a great book lol.

Anyways, on a trading standpoint; I spent most of 2020 riding various swings in both stocks and crypto. Not allowing any exposure to big sudden downsides that I thought was going to happen at any time (although Tesla could actually be popping); may have missed some gains here and there, but didn't miss much.

Anyways.... onto my Bitcoin/Ethereum prediction (copy and pasted straight from my TradingView charts)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
BUY BITCOIN 2021 MOON INCOMING: $10k to $15k to $12k to $25,000+

34816

PRELUDE NOTES: Bitcoin is currently $10,100, and as of currently 9/8/2020... Most of the crypto and investment universe thinks Bitcoin is going to drop hard before it climbs up. That this $10,000 area won't hold. I was one of them. Everybody is calling for $9k or $8k and will completely miss their entry if they don't enter here within the next few days (maybe a week). But by then, it will be too late as the PERFECT LOW ENTRY will have passed. Now onto my prediction...

Imagine being in a time machine and today is the year 2016.. April 27th of 2016 to be exact. What would you do? You would buy Bitcoin .. Immediately. And Hold it for 1.5 years.

From today 9/8/2020 we will go to somewhere in the $15,000ish range, then sell off/pullback into the $12,000ish area around mid-late December 2020. From early January, Bitcoin will climb slowly, steadily, with some ugly fast ups, fast downs, slow ups and slow downs to eventually go from $12,000ish to $25,000+ nearing the end of 2021.

Me, personally, I think ETH has a CRAZY amount of Upside and will likely position majority of my capital into ETH and rest split into BTC . (of course, if this thing does indeed go bull over the next 1.5 years, there will be various cycles of runs that one will experience while the other sits still... I will likely switch back and forth to maximize gains just like I did in the 2017 run up)

Well it's that time again. After doing hours and hours of analysis.. I have concluded, I am completely switched to a FULL ON BULL. Why? Why the 180* flip?

Bitcoin to this date has not proven any real world utility, until now. (I have wrote about this fundamental analysis alot before but going to rehash it real quickly).

BITCOIN WILL FINALLY HAVE IT'S FIRST PROOF OF CONCEPT.. A CONCRETE ONE. ONE THAT IS NO LONGER IN QUESTION. AND THAT IS...

A STORE OF VALUE. A LIMITED ASSET. A GLOBALLY AGREED UPON HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION .

No, its not currency. Bitcoin's DNA and technical backbone would suck at transactions.. But as a store of value, it's GOLD . Literally... But..

Until now and the recent months since COVID hit and the development of the economic conditions, inflation /deflation threats, Fed printing, JPow promises, stocks decoupling from economy, etc... Bitcoin is still a question mark in this utility of "STORE OF VALUE AS A LIMITED PRECIOUS ASSET/METAL". We see it moving with Gold and Silver , but yet there's just simply not enough data, track record, and convincement that it is on the same caliber as a precious metal. Sure.. it's been shadowing it, but it's such a risky, sketchy unknown.. it could literally fall off by the waste side when Gold / Silver does continue it's climb over the next 5 years.

BUT... What IF? What if it is indeed Gold and Silver? What if it is just as good? So far, it's proven it.. What more proof do we need to get a global wide convincement that would set this into a full blown BULL? We need the correlation of the dollar to directly inverse Bitcoin / Gold / Silver and to continue to do it until there is concreteevidence of inflation happening... And once this concrete evidence of inflation is in, there is no more denying that Bitcoin is no longer some skeptical, controversial, speculative asset if that happens.

Then the Bitcoin BULL will begin gaining major traction. Early people like me and the few other crazy bulltards thinking it could actually have a 100% PROVEN REAL WORLD UTILITY now would be in wayyy early while the Early Majority and Late Majority come piling in over the 12 months of 2021.

Let's take some evidence...

JPOW is very, very adament in letting inflation happen, increase, etc. to levels NEVER allowed before. He will no longer suppress inflation . Because he is so scared of the even more serious detrimental effects of Deflation.. The most powerful man in the world is giving everyone a handshake of guarantee that he will do whatever it takes to get the ball rolling for inflation to happen. Over the next 2 years, its highly likely he does indeed print enough money, keep interest rates low, etc. etc. to spark inflation to actually get going.

The dollar will continue to drop in value (to who knows what, I have no earthly idea) and a few other economic conditions that are an after effect of inflation (beyond my brain level that indicate what they are) will almost certainly without a doubt bring..

TRILLIONS LOOKING TO AND CONTINUING TO HOLD ASSETS THAT WILL HEDGE.

Good luck my friends.... Am I crazy? Sure... Will I be rewarded in 1.5 years? Maybe, maybe not. "It's Okay to Try and Fail. It's Not Okay to Fail at giving a Try."

p.s. - Ain't it crazy how we completely forgot all about a Halving that took place in May 2020, 4 months ago... 2020 has been a hell of a year. The halving will begin to have it's effects onto Supply from here on out.
 

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Kasimir

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Great value, thanks a lot.
I myself have put quite a lot in Bitcoin recently. About ETH I'm not so sure. But I think the halving will have an extreme impact on Bitcoin in the next 3 months. But maybe it will drop a little before it goes up. But definitely keep my investment in it may put a little more if we see it coming down to 9k or even 8k. You don't think that it comes down right now, do you? If so why not?
 

Bekit

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Long time, no see guys... I am back. 2020 has been bat shit crazy for me on a personal level, it would make a great book lol.

Anyways, on a trading standpoint; I spent most of 2020 riding various swings in both stocks and crypto. Not allowing any exposure to big sudden downsides that I thought was going to happen at any time (although Tesla could actually be popping); may have missed some gains here and there, but didn't miss much.

Anyways.... onto my Bitcoin/Ethereum prediction (copy and pasted straight from my TradingView charts)

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
BUY BITCOIN 2021 MOON INCOMING: $10k to $15k to $12k to $25,000+

View attachment 34816

PRELUDE NOTES: Bitcoin is currently $10,100, and as of currently 9/8/2020... Most of the crypto and investment universe thinks Bitcoin is going to drop hard before it climbs up. That this $10,000 area won't hold. I was one of them. Everybody is calling for $9k or $8k and will completely miss their entry if they don't enter here within the next few days (maybe a week). But by then, it will be too late as the PERFECT LOW ENTRY will have passed. Now onto my prediction...

Imagine being in a time machine and today is the year 2016.. April 27th of 2016 to be exact. What would you do? You would buy Bitcoin .. Immediately. And Hold it for 1.5 years.

From today 9/8/2020 we will go to somewhere in the $15,000ish range, then sell off/pullback into the $12,000ish area around mid-late December 2020. From early January, Bitcoin will climb slowly, steadily, with some ugly fast ups, fast downs, slow ups and slow downs to eventually go from $12,000ish to $25,000+ nearing the end of 2021.

Me, personally, I think ETH has a CRAZY amount of Upside and will likely position majority of my capital into ETH and rest split into BTC . (of course, if this thing does indeed go bull over the next 1.5 years, there will be various cycles of runs that one will experience while the other sits still... I will likely switch back and forth to maximize gains just like I did in the 2017 run up)

Well it's that time again. After doing hours and hours of analysis.. I have concluded, I am completely switched to a FULL ON BULL. Why? Why the 180* flip?

Bitcoin to this date has not proven any real world utility, until now. (I have wrote about this fundamental analysis alot before but going to rehash it real quickly).

BITCOIN WILL FINALLY HAVE IT'S FIRST PROOF OF CONCEPT.. A CONCRETE ONE. ONE THAT IS NO LONGER IN QUESTION. AND THAT IS...

A STORE OF VALUE. A LIMITED ASSET. A GLOBALLY AGREED UPON HEDGE AGAINST INFLATION .

No, its not currency. Bitcoin's DNA and technical backbone would suck at transactions.. But as a store of value, it's GOLD . Literally... But..

Until now and the recent months since COVID hit and the development of the economic conditions, inflation /deflation threats, Fed printing, JPow promises, stocks decoupling from economy, etc... Bitcoin is still a question mark in this utility of "STORE OF VALUE AS A LIMITED PRECIOUS ASSET/METAL". We see it moving with Gold and Silver , but yet there's just simply not enough data, track record, and convincement that it is on the same caliber as a precious metal. Sure.. it's been shadowing it, but it's such a risky, sketchy unknown.. it could literally fall off by the waste side when Gold / Silver does continue it's climb over the next 5 years.

BUT... What IF? What if it is indeed Gold and Silver? What if it is just as good? So far, it's proven it.. What more proof do we need to get a global wide convincement that would set this into a full blown BULL? We need the correlation of the dollar to directly inverse Bitcoin / Gold / Silver and to continue to do it until there is concreteevidence of inflation happening... And once this concrete evidence of inflation is in, there is no more denying that Bitcoin is no longer some skeptical, controversial, speculative asset if that happens.

Then the Bitcoin BULL will begin gaining major traction. Early people like me and the few other crazy bulltards thinking it could actually have a 100% PROVEN REAL WORLD UTILITY now would be in wayyy early while the Early Majority and Late Majority come piling in over the 12 months of 2021.

Let's take some evidence...

JPOW is very, very adament in letting inflation happen, increase, etc. to levels NEVER allowed before. He will no longer suppress inflation . Because he is so scared of the even more serious detrimental effects of Deflation.. The most powerful man in the world is giving everyone a handshake of guarantee that he will do whatever it takes to get the ball rolling for inflation to happen. Over the next 2 years, its highly likely he does indeed print enough money, keep interest rates low, etc. etc. to spark inflation to actually get going.

The dollar will continue to drop in value (to who knows what, I have no earthly idea) and a few other economic conditions that are an after effect of inflation (beyond my brain level that indicate what they are) will almost certainly without a doubt bring..

TRILLIONS LOOKING TO AND CONTINUING TO HOLD ASSETS THAT WILL HEDGE.

Good luck my friends.... Am I crazy? Sure... Will I be rewarded in 1.5 years? Maybe, maybe not. "It's Okay to Try and Fail. It's Not Okay to Fail at giving a Try."

p.s. - Ain't it crazy how we completely forgot all about a Halving that took place in May 2020, 4 months ago... 2020 has been a hell of a year. The halving will begin to have it's effects onto Supply from here on out.
Thank you for the great post. I agree with you and am bullish on Bitcoin.

I was surprised, though, that it dropped from the $11,000 range. Why do you think this happened?

Since you're good at reading sentiment, do you see any ramifications on Bitcoin one way or the other based on the results of the elections?
 
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James Fend

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You don't think that it comes down right now, do you? If so why not?
Yes, and no. I think 80% chance we don't drop from here, and then there's the 20% it might happen... only because of some pure technicals on a chart. (outside of technicals, the sentiment matches that of a reaccumulation phase and we are nearing the spring end stage where it gets pushed up and out the price range into a run which is why I am 80% on why it won't happen).

Technicals:
  1. 200 Daily moving average may need to be hit once again and if it retests that and bounces off, that is the clearest Green light for Bitcoin bull that'll ever print lol.
  2. I believe we are around a stage like April 27, 2016. It bounced and tested and looked shaky and looked like a super bad area for entry. It even had a few harsh drops and printed long bottom wicks that touched low (like a 200 daily moving average). We've touched 100 daily MA, but that stupid 200 lol.
  3. Do we need to officially touch down and give another Green light signal like the 200 daily MA on this Huge down trendline we broke finally after 3 years? (draw line from top at 2017 all the way down to all the other highs). This line could also match up to the 200 daily MA as well soon.
So at the current moment; I will take fundamentals and psy first over technicals on a chart.. purely because I believe that behavior is what drives markets that prints as prices. Forecast the behavior is like skipping the middle man. Kind of like peeping and sensing you're about to get cut off in traffic before it happens and preventing any collision. The tell tell signs of someone looking in the side mirror and not noticing you, slight over correction to the other side before switching, etc. Chart technicals would be like seeing their odometer speed which would only give you a possible signal that is about to happen if there is a ever so slight reduction in speed.
 
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James Fend

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I was surprised, though, that it dropped from the $11,000 range. Why do you think this happened?
I think it just got over-extended along with most people thought surely a second stimulus to print more money (aka drop the DXY even more) was for sure going to be in effect before the July 31st deadline. As it became clearer that it likely wasn't on the near term horizon, the DXY had a chance to pop up a bit. As soon as we initially left that $11-12k area and we went to re-visit, that it would drop like a rock once it hit $12k.

Proof: Hit play button this: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/VuF79gwf-Possible-Bitcoin-Route-Leading-Into-Elections-Covid-Recovery/ (however, I am pivoting as I don't think we will drop down as far as on that chart because sentiment kind of shifting course, so scrap anything after that $12k top drop lol)
 
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James Fend

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Since you're good at reading sentiment, do you see any ramifications on Bitcoin one way or the other based on the results of the elections?
Yes, ALOT.

So... Bitcoin and Gold react to the Dollar which reacts to Economy. I put a big fat asterisk* over stocks because it's completely decoupled from the economy, and has the biggest divergence in history (which on a whole other topic will lead to 1930s stuff). So I ignore stocks and use no correlation to it other than broad market all equities sell off which isn't likely anymore unless some financial sector's stress fracture right now breaks (which I am betting it doesn't so as long as the Fed props things up and the DXY hasn't quite hit inflation yet aka... a mid-term window before it closes)

Anyways.. back to elections and it's affect on the US Dollar:
  1. We got a wild card of a candidate that equates to almost a guaranteed full out Cold War between the two biggest economies in the world (US and China) during an economic recession (possibly Depression with Black Swan event to trigger it on the brink).
    1. Result: DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with high chance it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  2. The same wild card candidate will also almost guaranteed to dig into JPow's a$$ and harass him over and over and over again the minute any significant stock market drops (because Stock Market = Economy apparently).
    1. Result: JPow will likely print more US Dollars than he'd do with the other candidate. More dollar supply = DXY goes down. With that threat of a wild card.. again.. DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with high chance it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  3. With 110% Uncertainty any new stimulus is coming or not coming.. the DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with a higher chance that it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  4. There is a good chance if Trump loses, he will have to be physically forced out of the White House by the military. That is a scary thought. Uncertainty = DXY does NOT go up.
All in all... I think there's a significant reason why there is Trillions upon Trillions sitting on the sidelines right now and have remained on the sidelines during one of the biggest, most profitable recoveries in history.

There is significant reason why Russia and China have completely dumped the US Dollar (officially completed as of a few months ago) and have accumulated physical Gold in the past decade. They may not be my most favorite governments in the world, but they for sure aren't dumb. The long-term motive behind it is very concerning.

There is significant reason why Italy has done the same and sits on a HUGE physical gold reserve. If Italexit were to ever happen (which is very quite possible the further we see how international travel is the absolute last thing to recover to normal) and the stress fracture finally cracks.. Italy is already pegged to something worth lots (and will be even more by then).

We, the US, have been selling physical gold. We have never been further away from the gold standard while other super power countries have went more towards it. That divergence is scary in the mid-long term.

Anyways.. I say all that to say..

Bitcoin and Gold will likely continue going up as we near November. DXY to hit major resistance and likely continue it's fall as the first stimulus supply of printed money makes its way through the system and it's effects become more tangible.
 
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James Fend

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Bitcoin's future has never been tied closer to how the global economy will behave. So for right now, it's more important to forecast what the world's largest economies do and expect Bitcoin to inverse/hedge than the purely look at Bitcoin.

With that said... Economies look like complete and utter shit with a ton of stress fractures on a few financial sectors that is way over-leveraged and eventually the super slow recovery will break it. Will it be enough to be a Black Swan? They are everywhere, not just the US. It's complete shit with a clown face painted on it. It may take months even two years for the effects to finally break surface.
 
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James Fend

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My take on US Stocks:

In 2017-2018 before the second Bitcoin "bubble" burst into a 3 year bear market.. Shitcoins like Verge, Tron, etc. (completely SHIT) were pumping.. and dumping... eventually back into the earth where they belong after years.

Right now, Nikola is the equal of a SHIT COIN along with Kodak, Hertz, etc.

In late 2017, late majority came rushing in and these retail traders were pouring borrowed money from personal loans, credit cards, Kabbage, friends, family, etc. into Bitcoin. This is a direct resulting behavior from the emotion of: Invincibility. The last stage after Euphoria.

"Stonks only go up" "Gay bears" "I am smarter than Buffett" etc. People lost their a$$ in the last 3 days.... lost it all, lost most of it, etc.

And then comes the Final Stage right after this that will unfold over our very eyes in the next months..

REVENGE TRADING TO MAKE UP THOSE HUGE LOSES. Borrowing and leveraging even more. Things like Tesla won't all crash without a huge rebound (that doesn't quite make it back to all time highs) that will be convincing enough that it is not entered Bear territory.

Right now, people can be public about their losses and even joke.

When you lose at revenge trading though, you throw in the towel. You don't even speak of it. Shame, embarrassment, guilt, etc. This stage is very hard to tell and the only way to stiff this stage out is by merely looking at volume on buys/sells and chat/community volume and volatility.


When we reach that stage... final capitulation happens into the low trough.

Conclusion: Although I treat US Stocks with a big fat * cause it's completely decoupled from the Economy, it can quickly couple right back as well.

But it will be over months.. so plenty of time to just keep a passive eye over things as they develop.
 

Kasimir

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Thanks for that valuable information!
On a technical side, I was on a similar standpoint with my own charts but you certainly helped a lot on the fundamental side. I wasn't sure if the election would have a negative effect on bitcoin, but your forecast seems reasonable.

I also agree that bitcoin is acting contrary to DXY atm. And I personally think the US is at a pretty bad point right now. Not only with corona, which is still rising but also with inflation. And also the whole BLM movement which we don't hear a lot about now but will certainly come back and if the orange man gets reelected we could see something similar to a civil war in the US.

I could potentially only see a problem if a vaccine is found before the election and distributed to everyone. What do you think bitcoin will do then? Because normal stock markets will go up in my opinion, do they?

Think in the next year or two we see gold, silver, bitcoin, and whiskey be bullish. Because they are new security against inflation and stocks become less trusted.

But where I'm really unsure is the bitcoin prices until the end of this year. Since corona, the stock market does some weird things so I have no idea but I wouldn't be confused if BTC goes down to 8k or so. But what's for sure is that we are still living in a time of crisis and everything will collapse someday and then we can see bitcoin go up to new highs.
I'm not an expert and are after five years in the business market still a beginner.
But thanks a lot for your really valuable advice.
 

Kasimir

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"Stonks only go up" "Gay bears" "I am smarter than Buffett" etc. People lost their a$$ in the last 3 days.... lost it all, lost most of it, etc.
I think here we have a different standpoint. I think your right and stocks will go down and everything. But I still think in a very long term perspective 20 to 50 years indexes like S&P 500 will eventually go up. But in a shorter perspective, we could see a bearish trend for a really long time. Since the 2000 bubble, we haven't had a big crash without a quick comeback and it's time for something huge in the stock market. Something which needs 20+ years to get back to previous levels. Think that we potentially see something like this in the next two years. So I took all my money out of stocks last week, yes luckily before the bearish trend over the last few days and hope for BTC and gold atm.
Again thanks for your really good advice.
 

Sethamus

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Yes, ALOT.

So... Bitcoin and Gold react to the Dollar which reacts to Economy. I put a big fat asterisk* over stocks because it's completely decoupled from the economy, and has the biggest divergence in history (which on a whole other topic will lead to 1930s stuff). So I ignore stocks and use no correlation to it other than broad market all equities sell off which isn't likely anymore unless some financial sector's stress fracture right now breaks (which I am betting it doesn't so as long as the Fed props things up and the DXY hasn't quite hit inflation yet aka... a mid-term window before it closes)

Anyways.. back to elections and it's affect on the US Dollar:
  1. We got a wild card of a candidate that equates to almost a guaranteed full out Cold War between the two biggest economies in the world (US and China) during an economic recession (possibly Depression with Black Swan event to trigger it on the brink).
    1. Result: DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with high chance it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  2. The same wild card candidate will also almost guaranteed to dig into JPow's a$$ and harass him over and over and over again the minute any significant stock market drops (because Stock Market = Economy apparently).
    1. Result: JPow will likely print more US Dollars than he'd do with the other candidate. More dollar supply = DXY goes down. With that threat of a wild card.. again.. DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with high chance it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  3. With 110% Uncertainty any new stimulus is coming or not coming.. the DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with a higher chance that it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  4. There is a good chance if Trump loses, he will have to be physically forced out of the White House by the military. That is a scary thought. Uncertainty = DXY does NOT go up.
All in all... I think there's a significant reason why there is Trillions upon Trillions sitting on the sidelines right now and have remained on the sidelines during one of the biggest, most profitable recoveries in history.

There is significant reason why Russia and China have completely dumped the US Dollar (officially completed as of a few months ago) and have accumulated physical Gold in the past decade. They may not be my most favorite governments in the world, but they for sure aren't dumb. The long-term motive behind it is very concerning.

There is significant reason why Italy has done the same and sits on a HUGE physical gold reserve. If Italexit were to ever happen (which is very quite possible the further we see how international travel is the absolute last thing to recover to normal) and the stress fracture finally cracks.. Italy is already pegged to something worth lots (and will be even more by then).

We, the US, have been selling physical gold. We have never been further away from the gold standard while other super power countries have went more towards it. That divergence is scary in the mid-long term.

Anyways.. I say all that to say..

Bitcoin and Gold will likely continue going up as we near November. DXY to hit major resistance and likely continue it's fall as the first stimulus supply of printed money makes its way through the system and it's effects become more tangible.
Every point here leans on Trump being re-elected or in the 1 where he doesn't he refuses to leave peaceful.
Can you give your few point on BTC and gold if Biden gets elected and trump doesn't fight it? You kind of just skipped over that possibility.
 

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James Fend

James Fend

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@Kasimir ah yes, most of what I wrote is mid-term like 2-10 years from now. In 10+ years, I definitely agree 100% with you. There's some big tech that given 10-15 years will create another big boom like the internet did.. mostly around autonomy like automatic transportation of people, shipments, etc. Automated semis, RVs, eventually even sea vessels, etc. I think think virtual reality will come into the picture in a big way around 20-30 years from now.


Every point here leans on Trump being re-elected or in the 1 where he doesn't he refuses to leave peaceful.
Can you give your few point on BTC and gold if Biden gets elected and trump doesn't fight it? You kind of just skipped over that possibility.
Ah yes.. I did skip over that... mostly cause it would be boring lol. Overall, it will mostly be the Fed that will drive the dollar, Bitcoin, and stocks... some key differences:
  1. Biden: No cold war with China. Trump: Cold war with China.
    1. Result: Biden would make things unfold slower while Trump would accelerate things. Either candidate, the inevitable inflation is going to happen, just a matter of sooner or later.
  2. Biden: No pressure on Fed, more focus on Congress passing monetary stuff. Trump: Extreme pressure on Fed trying to bypass Congress.
    1. Result: Same thing as last time. Trump cause accelerated pace of inevitable inflation, Biden same result but in a slower pace.
Kind of like being on cart heading towards the edge of a cliff. Trump would yell and whip the horse over the cliff while Biden wouldn't touch the horse and eventually we get to the cliff.

Biden wins, he will win another term if his old age isn't kicked him over. Essentially, slowing things down and pushing a 90 year Depression cycle in a 100 year cycle so... a big major Black Swan event happens around 2028-2030. Trump wins; the Black Swan event will likely happen during his first year of second term in late 2021 with history books putting the "big crash into 2020's Depression to happen in March of 2020 vs. Dec of 2021" if that makes sense.
 
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James Fend

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And also the whole BLM movement which we don't hear a lot about now but will certainly come back and if the orange man gets reelected we could see something similar to a civil war in the US.
This is a great point. From an economic standpoint; this is a huge sleeper factor. This is no small civil unrest.. it's actually just the tip of the iceberg and beneath it is a huge problem in divergence: polarism.

"Tragedy unites us (9/11, etc.) and ideology divides us (religion, politics)"

Ideology is much much much more powerful then people realize. It's so powerful, its resulted in genocide of millions of people. Religion alone has been the #1 biggest killer of human beings since our existence.

This divide in Ideology between red and blue politics is HUGE. There is no middle. If you're in the middle, you're against either party.

When things get to a point where being an objective middle lights up and sparks outrage from either side, it means it is time for re-balancing.

Essentially, we've reached the boundaries of US democracy. A re-balancing will happen. Just not sure in what form (civil war, militia against federal govt, evolution of brains being able to process objectively aka getting smarter socially (right now we're like a bunch of 5 year olds fighting over toys and just socially ignorant), etc.)

With all this on the subconscious minds of people all across the world: I just don't see Gold or Bitcoin going in a downward trend for the next 10 years; only a huge macro uptrend.
 
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James Fend

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@Sethamus - actually there is one more kicker that I haven't thought about.. interest rates and the effect of Biden vs. Trump on them. Biden would likely give more wiggle room for any U-turns JPow may want to do including raising interest rates earlier or just ditching raising inflation as the underlying economy gets more stable. Trump would be the exact opposite; no U-turn for JPow including interest rates staying at 0, etc. that would hurt the stock market going down with or without the underlying economy being stable or unstable.
 

Sethamus

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Thanks for the reply.
Kind of like being on cart heading towards the edge of a cliff. Trump would yell and whip the horse over the cliff while Biden wouldn't touch the horse and eventually we get to the cliff.
Agree that we are getting to this point no matter who gets elected. When reading Ray Dalio's changing world order, there are many trigger points that are starting to happen.
When things get to a point where being an objective middle lights up and sparks outrage from either side, it means it is time for re-balancing.

Essentially, we've reached the boundaries of US democracy. A re-balancing will happen
Talking with my dad and a few others his age he does not see this, but I think it is more them not wanting to. I feel many around my age (low 30s) that have both somewhat grew up in this new age of shared information and also have been in the workforce are already there. It won't be noticed and acted upon I believe until the current (16-25yr) kids get out of the school system and someone from the far left gets elected and they notice little change that actually makes their life better. I'd guess depending on this election 5-10 yrs before we start seeing momentum.
 

Kasimir

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@James Fend Great that you agree with me on a really long term view.

I personally thought that Biden is really just in it for one term but we’ll see. I think Biden will win, but Trump will try to distroy everything on the way out. Watched some documentary what could happen if Trump doesn’t get reelected. And prison is the smallest of his problems. Surely he has cash so he never will set a foot into it, but for sure he will be a long time in court, and he knows it. So he’ll try to make a lot of noise when he leaves.
But thanks again for you really valueable bitcoin advice.
 
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James Fend

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Thoughts on TRON Network for developing a dApp?
Tbh; I haven't followed many alt coins other than just Eth and maybe XRP. Sorry I can't be of zero perspective on Tron. I will say, an overall rising in tide will raise it. And it likely being way under-valued comparatively to other big cap coins, it will likely catch up quick when it does happen.

A couple things I am keeping a corner of my eye on is LINK and DOT. I don't know much about the coins other than a quick overview read, however; just watching it's rise (compared to other coins) and big cult following of the deep underlying tech it provides.. I think one of these has a big shot at over-taking XRP in market cap in the possible coming bullrun.
 
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James Fend

James Fend

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Keeping a close eye and guard on a possible broad market sell off.. Not a crash but more so a nice sized pullback over a longer period (few weeks instead of days).

I wanted to wait until I got a bit more confirmation from a technical standpoint and fundamentals before sharing this, but the following chart is something I mapped out a few weeks ago and have been loosely following. I am long-term (like weekly candles) bullish on Gold, Bitcoin, etc... However, for the mid-term (until elections, etc.) I am watching for big possible swings to take advantage of.

Note: Take my note boxes with half seriousness, it's just mental notes of varying moves to look into if the trend played out. The timing of the trendline and note boxes are off, so it's the bigger technicals I am following along like this 3400 SPX level. I think this level carries some importance as a support/resist depending on varying fundamentals (stimulus, feds, elections, sentiment, etc.) and may be revisited quite a bit from both top and bottom acting a good pivot area.

So far, yes, been fairly dead on with ETH and Bitcoin, etc. But... I always stay objective and never caught in the emotion. Meaning that today's ETH pump from $360 to $380s was something I don't like (even in a long position), rapid upmoves like this leave a bigger chance window of a quick downside. And it just doesn't time well with everything else I am watching, only adding more evidence to further downside moves I am leaning towards.

Today, I began reducing various positions. Even dribbling into some 3x Short ETFs..

Screen Shot 2020-09-16 at 8.37.24 PM.png
 

Sethamus

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By the time in 2017 I was interested in Crypto, there was tons of talk about it so I stayed out.

Late 2020/2021 outlook:
If we truly hit the long-term debt cycle in 2008, than you can argue that Covid was the turning point for the short term debt cycle and the current fed has not done a great job at deleveraging in the past 6 months (rebound curve is too sharp so an adjustment will happen as @James Fend is predicting above and supports what @Kak has mentioned on his radio show about false market values due to the printing of money). If my assumption is correct we will have another 4-8 years of growth after the next dip.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0
- Long term debt cycle by Ray Dalio

What am I doing?
1.Selling some Indexes soon to lock in the gains I have made and will also watch those up till the election and beyond waiting. I purchased a handful of dividend companies that have not seen super high growth (relative to the total market), so I am holding those and if they do drop I will pick up more.
2. After doing some research and seeing the big broker firms starting to take interest (though still limiting who can get in) it may be time to allocate some cash and hold crypto. Apparently the big money has it going to 8k so I'll wait and see if it gets close to the low 9's. If not I will buy 2-3 of the top coins where they are at and wait. Wish I would have researched this back in January to buy the dip.
See this commercial all the time - https://grayscale.co/
3. Current holdings are "0". I thought of some gold etf as a hedge as well and can see it doing good for the same reason crypto will. I had some gold mining companies that I sold in late March/April to buy the dividend companies in #1. I do not think any currency will ever go back to a gold standard due to the limited amount that can be produced each year( saw a report that supply is super limited from like 2018 in terms of total gold ever mined) and the Fed not able to "print" money at will on a gold standard. The growth I see compared to crypto is not as much, though a safer bet for now.

In total Crypto and Gold will only be 20-30% of my portfolio once I purchase initially. 401K which rode the trend up is getting converted to SD IRA. Haven't decided if I want to utilize part or all of it on real estate yet. So moving to cash fund like VUSXX which is 73% cash currently until I decide. I may miss some upswing, but I won't lose what I gained.

Just my thoughts and laying it out here so someone can tell me I am an idiot or not.
 

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