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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

James Fake

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Since you're good at reading sentiment, do you see any ramifications on Bitcoin one way or the other based on the results of the elections?

Yes, ALOT.

So... Bitcoin and Gold react to the Dollar which reacts to Economy. I put a big fat asterisk* over stocks because it's completely decoupled from the economy, and has the biggest divergence in history (which on a whole other topic will lead to 1930s stuff). So I ignore stocks and use no correlation to it other than broad market all equities sell off which isn't likely anymore unless some financial sector's stress fracture right now breaks (which I am betting it doesn't so as long as the Fed props things up and the DXY hasn't quite hit inflation yet aka... a mid-term window before it closes)

Anyways.. back to elections and it's affect on the US Dollar:
  1. We got a wild card of a candidate that equates to almost a guaranteed full out Cold War between the two biggest economies in the world (US and China) during an economic recession (possibly Depression with Black Swan event to trigger it on the brink).
    1. Result: DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with high chance it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  2. The same wild card candidate will also almost guaranteed to dig into JPow's a$$ and harass him over and over and over again the minute any significant stock market drops (because Stock Market = Economy apparently).
    1. Result: JPow will likely print more US Dollars than he'd do with the other candidate. More dollar supply = DXY goes down. With that threat of a wild card.. again.. DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with high chance it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  3. With 110% Uncertainty any new stimulus is coming or not coming.. the DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with a higher chance that it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  4. There is a good chance if Trump loses, he will have to be physically forced out of the White House by the military. That is a scary thought. Uncertainty = DXY does NOT go up.
All in all... I think there's a significant reason why there is Trillions upon Trillions sitting on the sidelines right now and have remained on the sidelines during one of the biggest, most profitable recoveries in history.

There is significant reason why Russia and China have completely dumped the US Dollar (officially completed as of a few months ago) and have accumulated physical Gold in the past decade. They may not be my most favorite governments in the world, but they for sure aren't dumb. The long-term motive behind it is very concerning.

There is significant reason why Italy has done the same and sits on a HUGE physical gold reserve. If Italexit were to ever happen (which is very quite possible the further we see how international travel is the absolute last thing to recover to normal) and the stress fracture finally cracks.. Italy is already pegged to something worth lots (and will be even more by then).

We, the US, have been selling physical gold. We have never been further away from the gold standard while other super power countries have went more towards it. That divergence is scary in the mid-long term.

Anyways.. I say all that to say..

Bitcoin and Gold will likely continue going up as we near November. DXY to hit major resistance and likely continue it's fall as the first stimulus supply of printed money makes its way through the system and it's effects become more tangible.
 
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James Fake

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Bitcoin's future has never been tied closer to how the global economy will behave. So for right now, it's more important to forecast what the world's largest economies do and expect Bitcoin to inverse/hedge than the purely look at Bitcoin.

With that said... Economies look like complete and utter shit with a ton of stress fractures on a few financial sectors that is way over-leveraged and eventually the super slow recovery will break it. Will it be enough to be a Black Swan? They are everywhere, not just the US. It's complete shit with a clown face painted on it. It may take months even two years for the effects to finally break surface.
 

James Fake

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My take on US Stocks:

In 2017-2018 before the second Bitcoin "bubble" burst into a 3 year bear market.. Shitcoins like Verge, Tron, etc. (completely SHIT) were pumping.. and dumping... eventually back into the earth where they belong after years.

Right now, Nikola is the equal of a SHIT COIN along with Kodak, Hertz, etc.

In late 2017, late majority came rushing in and these retail traders were pouring borrowed money from personal loans, credit cards, Kabbage, friends, family, etc. into Bitcoin. This is a direct resulting behavior from the emotion of: Invincibility. The last stage after Euphoria.

"Stonks only go up" "Gay bears" "I am smarter than Buffett" etc. People lost their a$$ in the last 3 days.... lost it all, lost most of it, etc.

And then comes the Final Stage right after this that will unfold over our very eyes in the next months..

REVENGE TRADING TO MAKE UP THOSE HUGE LOSES. Borrowing and leveraging even more. Things like Tesla won't all crash without a huge rebound (that doesn't quite make it back to all time highs) that will be convincing enough that it is not entered Bear territory.

Right now, people can be public about their losses and even joke.

When you lose at revenge trading though, you throw in the towel. You don't even speak of it. Shame, embarrassment, guilt, etc. This stage is very hard to tell and the only way to stiff this stage out is by merely looking at volume on buys/sells and chat/community volume and volatility.


When we reach that stage... final capitulation happens into the low trough.

Conclusion: Although I treat US Stocks with a big fat * cause it's completely decoupled from the Economy, it can quickly couple right back as well.

But it will be over months.. so plenty of time to just keep a passive eye over things as they develop.
 

Kasimir

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Thanks for that valuable information!
On a technical side, I was on a similar standpoint with my own charts but you certainly helped a lot on the fundamental side. I wasn't sure if the election would have a negative effect on bitcoin, but your forecast seems reasonable.

I also agree that bitcoin is acting contrary to DXY atm. And I personally think the US is at a pretty bad point right now. Not only with corona, which is still rising but also with inflation. And also the whole BLM movement which we don't hear a lot about now but will certainly come back and if the orange man gets reelected we could see something similar to a civil war in the US.

I could potentially only see a problem if a vaccine is found before the election and distributed to everyone. What do you think bitcoin will do then? Because normal stock markets will go up in my opinion, do they?

Think in the next year or two we see gold, silver, bitcoin, and whiskey be bullish. Because they are new security against inflation and stocks become less trusted.

But where I'm really unsure is the bitcoin prices until the end of this year. Since corona, the stock market does some weird things so I have no idea but I wouldn't be confused if BTC goes down to 8k or so. But what's for sure is that we are still living in a time of crisis and everything will collapse someday and then we can see bitcoin go up to new highs.
I'm not an expert and are after five years in the business market still a beginner.
But thanks a lot for your really valuable advice.
 
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Kasimir

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"Stonks only go up" "Gay bears" "I am smarter than Buffett" etc. People lost their a$$ in the last 3 days.... lost it all, lost most of it, etc.

I think here we have a different standpoint. I think your right and stocks will go down and everything. But I still think in a very long term perspective 20 to 50 years indexes like S&P 500 will eventually go up. But in a shorter perspective, we could see a bearish trend for a really long time. Since the 2000 bubble, we haven't had a big crash without a quick comeback and it's time for something huge in the stock market. Something which needs 20+ years to get back to previous levels. Think that we potentially see something like this in the next two years. So I took all my money out of stocks last week, yes luckily before the bearish trend over the last few days and hope for BTC and gold atm.
Again thanks for your really good advice.
 

Sethamus

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Yes, ALOT.

So... Bitcoin and Gold react to the Dollar which reacts to Economy. I put a big fat asterisk* over stocks because it's completely decoupled from the economy, and has the biggest divergence in history (which on a whole other topic will lead to 1930s stuff). So I ignore stocks and use no correlation to it other than broad market all equities sell off which isn't likely anymore unless some financial sector's stress fracture right now breaks (which I am betting it doesn't so as long as the Fed props things up and the DXY hasn't quite hit inflation yet aka... a mid-term window before it closes)

Anyways.. back to elections and it's affect on the US Dollar:
  1. We got a wild card of a candidate that equates to almost a guaranteed full out Cold War between the two biggest economies in the world (US and China) during an economic recession (possibly Depression with Black Swan event to trigger it on the brink).
    1. Result: DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with high chance it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  2. The same wild card candidate will also almost guaranteed to dig into JPow's a$$ and harass him over and over and over again the minute any significant stock market drops (because Stock Market = Economy apparently).
    1. Result: JPow will likely print more US Dollars than he'd do with the other candidate. More dollar supply = DXY goes down. With that threat of a wild card.. again.. DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with high chance it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  3. With 110% Uncertainty any new stimulus is coming or not coming.. the DXY will NOT be breaking up out of any significant resistance with a higher chance that it goes down. Aka good for Bitcoin and Gold to continue its climb.
  4. There is a good chance if Trump loses, he will have to be physically forced out of the White House by the military. That is a scary thought. Uncertainty = DXY does NOT go up.
All in all... I think there's a significant reason why there is Trillions upon Trillions sitting on the sidelines right now and have remained on the sidelines during one of the biggest, most profitable recoveries in history.

There is significant reason why Russia and China have completely dumped the US Dollar (officially completed as of a few months ago) and have accumulated physical Gold in the past decade. They may not be my most favorite governments in the world, but they for sure aren't dumb. The long-term motive behind it is very concerning.

There is significant reason why Italy has done the same and sits on a HUGE physical gold reserve. If Italexit were to ever happen (which is very quite possible the further we see how international travel is the absolute last thing to recover to normal) and the stress fracture finally cracks.. Italy is already pegged to something worth lots (and will be even more by then).

We, the US, have been selling physical gold. We have never been further away from the gold standard while other super power countries have went more towards it. That divergence is scary in the mid-long term.

Anyways.. I say all that to say..

Bitcoin and Gold will likely continue going up as we near November. DXY to hit major resistance and likely continue it's fall as the first stimulus supply of printed money makes its way through the system and it's effects become more tangible.
Every point here leans on Trump being re-elected or in the 1 where he doesn't he refuses to leave peaceful.
Can you give your few point on BTC and gold if Biden gets elected and trump doesn't fight it? You kind of just skipped over that possibility.
 

James Fake

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@Kasimir ah yes, most of what I wrote is mid-term like 2-10 years from now. In 10+ years, I definitely agree 100% with you. There's some big tech that given 10-15 years will create another big boom like the internet did.. mostly around autonomy like automatic transportation of people, shipments, etc. Automated semis, RVs, eventually even sea vessels, etc. I think think virtual reality will come into the picture in a big way around 20-30 years from now.


Every point here leans on Trump being re-elected or in the 1 where he doesn't he refuses to leave peaceful.
Can you give your few point on BTC and gold if Biden gets elected and trump doesn't fight it? You kind of just skipped over that possibility.

Ah yes.. I did skip over that... mostly cause it would be boring lol. Overall, it will mostly be the Fed that will drive the dollar, Bitcoin, and stocks... some key differences:
  1. Biden: No cold war with China. Trump: Cold war with China.
    1. Result: Biden would make things unfold slower while Trump would accelerate things. Either candidate, the inevitable inflation is going to happen, just a matter of sooner or later.
  2. Biden: No pressure on Fed, more focus on Congress passing monetary stuff. Trump: Extreme pressure on Fed trying to bypass Congress.
    1. Result: Same thing as last time. Trump cause accelerated pace of inevitable inflation, Biden same result but in a slower pace.
Kind of like being on cart heading towards the edge of a cliff. Trump would yell and whip the horse over the cliff while Biden wouldn't touch the horse and eventually we get to the cliff.

Biden wins, he will win another term if his old age isn't kicked him over. Essentially, slowing things down and pushing a 90 year Depression cycle in a 100 year cycle so... a big major Black Swan event happens around 2028-2030. Trump wins; the Black Swan event will likely happen during his first year of second term in late 2021 with history books putting the "big crash into 2020's Depression to happen in March of 2020 vs. Dec of 2021" if that makes sense.
 
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James Fake

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And also the whole BLM movement which we don't hear a lot about now but will certainly come back and if the orange man gets reelected we could see something similar to a civil war in the US.

This is a great point. From an economic standpoint; this is a huge sleeper factor. This is no small civil unrest.. it's actually just the tip of the iceberg and beneath it is a huge problem in divergence: polarism.

"Tragedy unites us (9/11, etc.) and ideology divides us (religion, politics)"

Ideology is much much much more powerful then people realize. It's so powerful, its resulted in genocide of millions of people. Religion alone has been the #1 biggest killer of human beings since our existence.

This divide in Ideology between red and blue politics is HUGE. There is no middle. If you're in the middle, you're against either party.

When things get to a point where being an objective middle lights up and sparks outrage from either side, it means it is time for re-balancing.

Essentially, we've reached the boundaries of US democracy. A re-balancing will happen. Just not sure in what form (civil war, militia against federal govt, evolution of brains being able to process objectively aka getting smarter socially (right now we're like a bunch of 5 year olds fighting over toys and just socially ignorant), etc.)

With all this on the subconscious minds of people all across the world: I just don't see Gold or Bitcoin going in a downward trend for the next 10 years; only a huge macro uptrend.
 

James Fake

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@Sethamus - actually there is one more kicker that I haven't thought about.. interest rates and the effect of Biden vs. Trump on them. Biden would likely give more wiggle room for any U-turns JPow may want to do including raising interest rates earlier or just ditching raising inflation as the underlying economy gets more stable. Trump would be the exact opposite; no U-turn for JPow including interest rates staying at 0, etc. that would hurt the stock market going down with or without the underlying economy being stable or unstable.
 

Sethamus

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Thanks for the reply.
Kind of like being on cart heading towards the edge of a cliff. Trump would yell and whip the horse over the cliff while Biden wouldn't touch the horse and eventually we get to the cliff.
Agree that we are getting to this point no matter who gets elected. When reading Ray Dalio's changing world order, there are many trigger points that are starting to happen.
When things get to a point where being an objective middle lights up and sparks outrage from either side, it means it is time for re-balancing.

Essentially, we've reached the boundaries of US democracy. A re-balancing will happen
Talking with my dad and a few others his age he does not see this, but I think it is more them not wanting to. I feel many around my age (low 30s) that have both somewhat grew up in this new age of shared information and also have been in the workforce are already there. It won't be noticed and acted upon I believe until the current (16-25yr) kids get out of the school system and someone from the far left gets elected and they notice little change that actually makes their life better. I'd guess depending on this election 5-10 yrs before we start seeing momentum.
 
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Kasimir

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@James Fend Great that you agree with me on a really long term view.

I personally thought that Biden is really just in it for one term but we’ll see. I think Biden will win, but Trump will try to distroy everything on the way out. Watched some documentary what could happen if Trump doesn’t get reelected. And prison is the smallest of his problems. Surely he has cash so he never will set a foot into it, but for sure he will be a long time in court, and he knows it. So he’ll try to make a lot of noise when he leaves.
But thanks again for you really valueable bitcoin advice.
 

James Fake

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Thoughts on TRON Network for developing a dApp?

Tbh; I haven't followed many alt coins other than just Eth and maybe XRP. Sorry I can't be of zero perspective on Tron. I will say, an overall rising in tide will raise it. And it likely being way under-valued comparatively to other big cap coins, it will likely catch up quick when it does happen.

A couple things I am keeping a corner of my eye on is LINK and DOT. I don't know much about the coins other than a quick overview read, however; just watching it's rise (compared to other coins) and big cult following of the deep underlying tech it provides.. I think one of these has a big shot at over-taking XRP in market cap in the possible coming bullrun.
 
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James Fake

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Keeping a close eye and guard on a possible broad market sell off.. Not a crash but more so a nice sized pullback over a longer period (few weeks instead of days).

I wanted to wait until I got a bit more confirmation from a technical standpoint and fundamentals before sharing this, but the following chart is something I mapped out a few weeks ago and have been loosely following. I am long-term (like weekly candles) bullish on Gold, Bitcoin, etc... However, for the mid-term (until elections, etc.) I am watching for big possible swings to take advantage of.

Note: Take my note boxes with half seriousness, it's just mental notes of varying moves to look into if the trend played out. The timing of the trendline and note boxes are off, so it's the bigger technicals I am following along like this 3400 SPX level. I think this level carries some importance as a support/resist depending on varying fundamentals (stimulus, feds, elections, sentiment, etc.) and may be revisited quite a bit from both top and bottom acting a good pivot area.

So far, yes, been fairly dead on with ETH and Bitcoin, etc. But... I always stay objective and never caught in the emotion. Meaning that today's ETH pump from $360 to $380s was something I don't like (even in a long position), rapid upmoves like this leave a bigger chance window of a quick downside. And it just doesn't time well with everything else I am watching, only adding more evidence to further downside moves I am leaning towards.

Today, I began reducing various positions. Even dribbling into some 3x Short ETFs..

Screen Shot 2020-09-16 at 8.37.24 PM.png
 

Sethamus

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By the time in 2017 I was interested in Crypto, there was tons of talk about it so I stayed out.

Late 2020/2021 outlook:
If we truly hit the long-term debt cycle in 2008, than you can argue that Covid was the turning point for the short term debt cycle and the current fed has not done a great job at deleveraging in the past 6 months (rebound curve is too sharp so an adjustment will happen as @James Fend is predicting above and supports what @Kak has mentioned on his radio show about false market values due to the printing of money). If my assumption is correct we will have another 4-8 years of growth after the next dip.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHe0bXAIuk0
- Long term debt cycle by Ray Dalio

What am I doing?
1.Selling some Indexes soon to lock in the gains I have made and will also watch those up till the election and beyond waiting. I purchased a handful of dividend companies that have not seen super high growth (relative to the total market), so I am holding those and if they do drop I will pick up more.
2. After doing some research and seeing the big broker firms starting to take interest (though still limiting who can get in) it may be time to allocate some cash and hold crypto. Apparently the big money has it going to 8k so I'll wait and see if it gets close to the low 9's. If not I will buy 2-3 of the top coins where they are at and wait. Wish I would have researched this back in January to buy the dip.
See this commercial all the time - https://grayscale.co/
3. Current holdings are "0". I thought of some gold etf as a hedge as well and can see it doing good for the same reason crypto will. I had some gold mining companies that I sold in late March/April to buy the dividend companies in #1. I do not think any currency will ever go back to a gold standard due to the limited amount that can be produced each year( saw a report that supply is super limited from like 2018 in terms of total gold ever mined) and the Fed not able to "print" money at will on a gold standard. The growth I see compared to crypto is not as much, though a safer bet for now.

In total Crypto and Gold will only be 20-30% of my portfolio once I purchase initially. 401K which rode the trend up is getting converted to SD IRA. Haven't decided if I want to utilize part or all of it on real estate yet. So moving to cash fund like VUSXX which is 73% cash currently until I decide. I may miss some upswing, but I won't lose what I gained.

Just my thoughts and laying it out here so someone can tell me I am an idiot or not.
 

JinYang

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I hold some three kinds of altcoin, currently it worth about 100K USD. I don't know the technology and philosophy behind it, but I do know it has bear and bull cycle just like the stock market and much shorter than that.

My core principle is this, if I am wrong I could afford to lose, but If I am right I will make a killing, 0 OR 100x .

Whether you call it a scam or not, think me a speculator or trader whatever I just want to make money

If I do succeed then I will just put that money into some high dividend stock and just build my money system.
 
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There is a place for those types of investments within the parameters of the unscripted model; the "F*ck you" pot.


 

JinYang

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Yeah, you are right, I am absolutely a gambler, but my chance is 0 OR 10 Million

I have my own house no mortgage, a car no loan, and a job pay my daily bill, with the 100K I just can afford to lose

I also consider throwing it into stock markets, but the 100K can go nowhere in a few years, it can change my life in a few years, and I just don't want to wait for twenty, thirty years to have an unscripted life

Instead, I believe the bitcoin will have a bull run in a few years, and the altcoin will follow the bitcoin have a big bull run, that's a chance to gain big profits, even though the odds are low, I have to give it a try.

But If I have 10 Million now, I also don't want to gamble the altcoin, just invest in the stock market to live on dividend, that is fine.

Everyone is different, I just make my decision according to my conditions
 
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c4n

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There is a place for those types of investments within the parameters of the unscripted model; the "f*ck you" pot.

Absolutely. I also own a bunch of crypto.

My point was to call it what it is. If you throw money at something with no good understanding of what is behind it or how it works, that's not investing.
 

James Fake

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I hate to bring in politics but unfort it is a big factor in markets right now and for the foreseeable future.

1. Biden just tremendously upp'ed his chances. I am short on time, but I will write more on this later. To leave a short: Completely ignore those who were going to vote for Biden or Trump regardless and look entirely at swing state middle-class suburban families. To most of them, yes, last night was a complete shit show and disappointing, but there's a huge underlying mass psy thing people are looking past.

Trump was Trump. Biden was not Biden. One blade was one-bladed as expected and verified once again. The other blade though.. unexpectedly showed it can be a two-sided blade.

This two-sided blade (once it can prove in the next debate that it can return back to it's other blade side) will win the election. The one-sided blade will inevitably only show one-side in the next debate.

The asset of having both sides a sharp edge will bring balance that swing voters are subconsciously yearning for and lean towards whether they know it or not.

The Main Question in America and to the world was: Is Biden mentally capable of holding a President position (not "will he be a good President").
The answer was Yes, but in an extremely underlying but powerful way that most (as I have yet to hear anyone mention what mass psy I am seeing in play) have yet to even realize.

2. Inflation is more likely with Biden. However, taking a deep look at Deflation.. it is very concerning. The only way to stop Deflation in the long term (3-10 years) is entirely dependent on govt's passing of various policy. My faith in that is not so strong, so I am at a crossroads right now with Inflation vs. Deflation battle.

3. The next round of stimulus is likely to pass. With the Presidential vote now being a "total toss up" to the masses (but our little secret is we know about this mass human psy blade thing)... it will be extremely critical for any and every politician to keep their seat. The stimulus passes this month in October. Likely $400-500/week in unemployment and $1200 checks til January 1st.

Regardless of who wins; I believe 2021 will bring the Trillions that's sitting in the sidelines to finally trickle into the market as the K-shaped recovery confirms more and more. The various Black Swans I am looking at can still hold water with their stress factors for many years to come (unless the govt. stresses them more)

January 2021 (at the current moment's fundamentals) would be an extremely great time to enter all equity markets. As sideline Trillions begin to pour in, and the stimulus checks and unemployment lump sums start getting into the hands of millions of people.

It could start in December, but it's likely the big whales will wash trade out in losses to offset capital gains for tax purposes and then re-buy in at same or lower prices in January. Unregulated assets like Crypto usually wash trades out in early-mid December, stocks are defined by a 30 day rule, so probably mid to late November for stock whales.
 
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James Fake

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Kind of early since my last reply, but stimulus "process" steps are moving faster than I anticipated. Although it looks like Dems/Reps didn't come to an agreement to the public; they unspokenly did. I didn't think that would happen next week.

Pretty much & Unofficially: They didn't agree on specific terms today, but they body languaged agreed to put in heavy work to pass one.

There is now a 90% chance that a stimulus bill will pass this October month.

The Short:
1. All equity assets including stocks, crypto, and gold will move up from now (start of Oct) to peak in late Nov for a pullback.
2. Pullback will bottom out near right after Christmas and will continue to climb from then all the entire 2021 year. (regardless of who wins)

Wallstreet/Crypto Whales
:
Likely got the confirmation they needed today, and will (collectively make their moves aka giving each other an unspoken "Im about to throw an alley oop" eye contact) begin to do a spring push out of a reaccumulation zone that we've been in. aka September sell-off. The whales will front-run the stimulus ("rumor") as they see what I see, and will continue front-running for the week to build their floor, then back off, and let the retail pick up the rest of the price movement until late Nov/early Dec. ("news day") when the stimulus money (lump sums of unemployment, stimulus checks, etc.) are actually in people's hands.

Whales likely targeting at least 20%+ or so in profit margin.

I'm following the first portions of my predictions posted on Sept. 9th. I will re-evaluate where I think we stand around March 2021 for Inflation or Deflation on the next macro position trades.
 

James Fake

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Covid does a full circle and infects Trump.

I am ditching all moves I've written about for the short term future. Will be watching and observing over the next weeks; way too many variables that can go from 0 to 100 in either direction. Risk/reward is not in favor imo.
 

Kasimir

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Great input @James Fend and yeah due to Trump's infection it's hard to predict atm.

But I still believe that there will be a lot of action in December/January.
1. If Trump wins the election the protests will get bigger and bigger. More riots will accrue and with the rightwing which is protected by Trump, the chances are high that it will escalate. And in the end, be a small civil war. What this will do to the stock market and to crypto is more or less predictable.
2. If Biden gets elected Trump will surely go to the supreme court. And try everything in his power to remain in the Whitehouse. The last few weeks confirmed that theory. It's not a prediction anymore it's the reality that he doesn't want to leave. So that will leave a mark in the crypto, stock markets, etc.
3. If Biden wins by a lot. Don't believe that this is going to happen but if he wins with 70+ percent Trump surely doesn't have a chance in court or with his republican friends. That's the only scenario where I see stocks going up. But even here Trump will probably try to destroy as much as possible till January.

In my opinion, the trillions on the side will have a big impact, but rather in Q1 or even Q2 2021. When the world is back to more or less normal. I strongly believe that there will be an extreme market movement in the next year, either a bullish phase like never seen before or the 2nd dot com bubble. But not sure what that will mean for crypto especially bitcoin if I'm honest. But I'm sure that we'll see some action in the next couple of months.
I hope for the best and once again glad that I don't live in the States. :)
 
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rockit11

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Great input @James Fend and yeah due to Trump's infection it's hard to predict atm.

But I still believe that there will be a lot of action in December/January.
1. If Trump wins the election the protests will get bigger and bigger. More riots will accrue and with the rightwing which is protected by Trump, the chances are high that it will escalate. And in the end, be a small civil war. What this will do to the stock market and to crypto is more or less predictable.
2. If Biden gets elected Trump will surely go to the supreme court. And try everything in his power to remain in the Whitehouse. The last few weeks confirmed that theory. It's not a prediction anymore it's the reality that he doesn't want to leave. So that will leave a mark in the crypto, stock markets, etc.
3. If Biden wins by a lot. Don't believe that this is going to happen but if he wins with 70+ percent Trump surely doesn't have a chance in court or with his republican friends. That's the only scenario where I see stocks going up. But even here Trump will probably try to destroy as much as possible till January.

In my opinion, the trillions on the side will have a big impact, but rather in Q1 or even Q2 2021. When the world is back to more or less normal. I strongly believe that there will be an extreme market movement in the next year, either a bullish phase like never seen before or the 2nd dot com bubble. But not sure what that will mean for crypto especially bitcoin if I'm honest. But I'm sure that we'll see some action in the next couple of months.
I hope for the best and once again glad that I don't live in the States. :)
Looks pretty accurate to me. It's amazing how much people from outside of the United States know about the United States. If you'd recommend Switzerland, I'd consider re-locating!
 

Kasimir

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Looks pretty accurate to me. It's amazing how much people from outside of the United States know about the United States. If you'd recommend Switzerland, I'd consider re-locating!

Thank will take that as a compliment. Yeah, it's a little say about how much we know. But it's 2020 nothing surprises me anymore.

Don't know if you mean it seriously with re-locating to Switzerland, but if you are. Heck yeah! Would say it's quite different from the US but except for some rather cold winters it's perfect!
 

James Fake

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But I still believe that there will be a lot of action in December/January.
1. If Trump wins the election the protests will get bigger and bigger. More riots will accrue and with the rightwing which is protected by Trump, the chances are high that it will escalate. And in the end, be a small civil war. What this will do to the stock market and to crypto is more or less predictable.
2. If Biden gets elected Trump will surely go to the supreme court. And try everything in his power to remain in the Whitehouse. The last few weeks confirmed that theory. It's not a prediction anymore it's the reality that he doesn't want to leave. So that will leave a mark in the crypto, stock markets, etc.
3. If Biden wins by a lot. Don't believe that this is going to happen but if he wins with 70+ percent Trump surely doesn't have a chance in court or with his republican friends. That's the only scenario where I see stocks going up. But even here Trump will probably try to destroy as much as possible till January.

In my opinion, the trillions on the side will have a big impact, but rather in Q1 or even Q2 2021. When the world is back to more or less normal. I strongly believe that there will be an extreme market movement in the next year, either a bullish phase like never seen before or the 2nd dot com bubble. But not sure what that will mean for crypto especially bitcoin if I'm honest. But I'm sure that we'll see some action in the next couple of months.
I hope for the best and once again glad that I don't live in the States. :)

Great analysis! I think you're spot on with #2.. if it is anywhere near close, we might not know who the actual winner is for months after. Who knows how much unrest there will be during those waiting months... I can see Gold and Bitcoin being a good safe haven for govt. unstableness.
 
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GoodluckChuck

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The narratives are already in place to draw out the election process as long as possible. If Biden wins the popular vote, Dems will claim victory and the media will rejoice. If Trump wins the pop, the Dems and media will keep counting for as long as possible until January and try to get Pelosi in.

I don't see a scenario where Trump wins without a fight, even if he wins the votes.

Behind my opinions, I think it's all a giant reality TV show meant to distract from the real elephant in the room: Currency changes.
 

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I hold some three kinds of altcoin, currently it worth about 100K USD. I don't know the technology and philosophy behind it, but I do know it has bear and bull cycle just like the stock market and much shorter than that.

My core principle is this, if I am wrong I could afford to lose, but If I am right I will make a killing, 0 OR 100x .

Whether you call it a scam or not, think me a speculator or trader whatever I just want to make money

If I do succeed then I will just put that money into some high dividend stock and just build my money system.

Dude....rip
 

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