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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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JinYang

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I hold some three kinds of altcoin, currently it worth about 100K USD. I don't know the technology and philosophy behind it, but I do know it has bear and bull cycle just like the stock market and much shorter than that.

My core principle is this, if I am wrong I could afford to lose, but If I am right I will make a killing, 0 OR 100x .

Whether you call it a scam or not, think me a speculator or trader whatever I just want to make money

If I do succeed then I will just put that money into some high dividend stock and just build my money system.
 

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fastlaner_1992

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There is a place for those types of investments within the parameters of the unscripted model; the "f*ck you" pot.


 

JinYang

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Yeah, you are right, I am absolutely a gambler, but my chance is 0 OR 10 Million

I have my own house no mortgage, a car no loan, and a job pay my daily bill, with the 100K I just can afford to lose

I also consider throwing it into stock markets, but the 100K can go nowhere in a few years, it can change my life in a few years, and I just don't want to wait for twenty, thirty years to have an unscripted life

Instead, I believe the bitcoin will have a bull run in a few years, and the altcoin will follow the bitcoin have a big bull run, that's a chance to gain big profits, even though the odds are low, I have to give it a try.

But If I have 10 Million now, I also don't want to gamble the altcoin, just invest in the stock market to live on dividend, that is fine.

Everyone is different, I just make my decision according to my conditions
 

c4n

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There is a place for those types of investments within the parameters of the unscripted model; the "f*ck you" pot.

Absolutely. I also own a bunch of crypto.

My point was to call it what it is. If you throw money at something with no good understanding of what is behind it or how it works, that's not investing.
 

James Fend

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I hate to bring in politics but unfort it is a big factor in markets right now and for the foreseeable future.

1. Biden just tremendously upp'ed his chances. I am short on time, but I will write more on this later. To leave a short: Completely ignore those who were going to vote for Biden or Trump regardless and look entirely at swing state middle-class suburban families. To most of them, yes, last night was a complete shit show and disappointing, but there's a huge underlying mass psy thing people are looking past.

Trump was Trump. Biden was not Biden. One blade was one-bladed as expected and verified once again. The other blade though.. unexpectedly showed it can be a two-sided blade.

This two-sided blade (once it can prove in the next debate that it can return back to it's other blade side) will win the election. The one-sided blade will inevitably only show one-side in the next debate.

The asset of having both sides a sharp edge will bring balance that swing voters are subconsciously yearning for and lean towards whether they know it or not.

The Main Question in America and to the world was: Is Biden mentally capable of holding a President position (not "will he be a good President").
The answer was Yes, but in an extremely underlying but powerful way that most (as I have yet to hear anyone mention what mass psy I am seeing in play) have yet to even realize.

2. Inflation is more likely with Biden. However, taking a deep look at Deflation.. it is very concerning. The only way to stop Deflation in the long term (3-10 years) is entirely dependent on govt's passing of various policy. My faith in that is not so strong, so I am at a crossroads right now with Inflation vs. Deflation battle.

3. The next round of stimulus is likely to pass. With the Presidential vote now being a "total toss up" to the masses (but our little secret is we know about this mass human psy blade thing)... it will be extremely critical for any and every politician to keep their seat. The stimulus passes this month in October. Likely $400-500/week in unemployment and $1200 checks til January 1st.

Regardless of who wins; I believe 2021 will bring the Trillions that's sitting in the sidelines to finally trickle into the market as the K-shaped recovery confirms more and more. The various Black Swans I am looking at can still hold water with their stress factors for many years to come (unless the govt. stresses them more)

January 2021 (at the current moment's fundamentals) would be an extremely great time to enter all equity markets. As sideline Trillions begin to pour in, and the stimulus checks and unemployment lump sums start getting into the hands of millions of people.

It could start in December, but it's likely the big whales will wash trade out in losses to offset capital gains for tax purposes and then re-buy in at same or lower prices in January. Unregulated assets like Crypto usually wash trades out in early-mid December, stocks are defined by a 30 day rule, so probably mid to late November for stock whales.
 
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James Fend

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Kind of early since my last reply, but stimulus "process" steps are moving faster than I anticipated. Although it looks like Dems/Reps didn't come to an agreement to the public; they unspokenly did. I didn't think that would happen next week.

Pretty much & Unofficially: They didn't agree on specific terms today, but they body languaged agreed to put in heavy work to pass one.

There is now a 90% chance that a stimulus bill will pass this October month.

The Short:
1. All equity assets including stocks, crypto, and gold will move up from now (start of Oct) to peak in late Nov for a pullback.
2. Pullback will bottom out near right after Christmas and will continue to climb from then all the entire 2021 year. (regardless of who wins)

Wallstreet/Crypto Whales
:
Likely got the confirmation they needed today, and will (collectively make their moves aka giving each other an unspoken "Im about to throw an alley oop" eye contact) begin to do a spring push out of a reaccumulation zone that we've been in. aka September sell-off. The whales will front-run the stimulus ("rumor") as they see what I see, and will continue front-running for the week to build their floor, then back off, and let the retail pick up the rest of the price movement until late Nov/early Dec. ("news day") when the stimulus money (lump sums of unemployment, stimulus checks, etc.) are actually in people's hands.

Whales likely targeting at least 20%+ or so in profit margin.

I'm following the first portions of my predictions posted on Sept. 9th. I will re-evaluate where I think we stand around March 2021 for Inflation or Deflation on the next macro position trades.
 

James Fend

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Covid does a full circle and infects Trump.

I am ditching all moves I've written about for the short term future. Will be watching and observing over the next weeks; way too many variables that can go from 0 to 100 in either direction. Risk/reward is not in favor imo.
 

Kasimir

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Great input @James Fend and yeah due to Trump's infection it's hard to predict atm.

But I still believe that there will be a lot of action in December/January.
1. If Trump wins the election the protests will get bigger and bigger. More riots will accrue and with the rightwing which is protected by Trump, the chances are high that it will escalate. And in the end, be a small civil war. What this will do to the stock market and to crypto is more or less predictable.
2. If Biden gets elected Trump will surely go to the supreme court. And try everything in his power to remain in the Whitehouse. The last few weeks confirmed that theory. It's not a prediction anymore it's the reality that he doesn't want to leave. So that will leave a mark in the crypto, stock markets, etc.
3. If Biden wins by a lot. Don't believe that this is going to happen but if he wins with 70+ percent Trump surely doesn't have a chance in court or with his republican friends. That's the only scenario where I see stocks going up. But even here Trump will probably try to destroy as much as possible till January.

In my opinion, the trillions on the side will have a big impact, but rather in Q1 or even Q2 2021. When the world is back to more or less normal. I strongly believe that there will be an extreme market movement in the next year, either a bullish phase like never seen before or the 2nd dot com bubble. But not sure what that will mean for crypto especially bitcoin if I'm honest. But I'm sure that we'll see some action in the next couple of months.
I hope for the best and once again glad that I don't live in the States. :)
 

rockit11

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Great input @James Fend and yeah due to Trump's infection it's hard to predict atm.

But I still believe that there will be a lot of action in December/January.
1. If Trump wins the election the protests will get bigger and bigger. More riots will accrue and with the rightwing which is protected by Trump, the chances are high that it will escalate. And in the end, be a small civil war. What this will do to the stock market and to crypto is more or less predictable.
2. If Biden gets elected Trump will surely go to the supreme court. And try everything in his power to remain in the Whitehouse. The last few weeks confirmed that theory. It's not a prediction anymore it's the reality that he doesn't want to leave. So that will leave a mark in the crypto, stock markets, etc.
3. If Biden wins by a lot. Don't believe that this is going to happen but if he wins with 70+ percent Trump surely doesn't have a chance in court or with his republican friends. That's the only scenario where I see stocks going up. But even here Trump will probably try to destroy as much as possible till January.

In my opinion, the trillions on the side will have a big impact, but rather in Q1 or even Q2 2021. When the world is back to more or less normal. I strongly believe that there will be an extreme market movement in the next year, either a bullish phase like never seen before or the 2nd dot com bubble. But not sure what that will mean for crypto especially bitcoin if I'm honest. But I'm sure that we'll see some action in the next couple of months.
I hope for the best and once again glad that I don't live in the States. :)
Looks pretty accurate to me. It's amazing how much people from outside of the United States know about the United States. If you'd recommend Switzerland, I'd consider re-locating!
 

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Kasimir

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Looks pretty accurate to me. It's amazing how much people from outside of the United States know about the United States. If you'd recommend Switzerland, I'd consider re-locating!

Thank will take that as a compliment. Yeah, it's a little say about how much we know. But it's 2020 nothing surprises me anymore.

Don't know if you mean it seriously with re-locating to Switzerland, but if you are. Heck yeah! Would say it's quite different from the US but except for some rather cold winters it's perfect!
 

James Fend

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But I still believe that there will be a lot of action in December/January.
1. If Trump wins the election the protests will get bigger and bigger. More riots will accrue and with the rightwing which is protected by Trump, the chances are high that it will escalate. And in the end, be a small civil war. What this will do to the stock market and to crypto is more or less predictable.
2. If Biden gets elected Trump will surely go to the supreme court. And try everything in his power to remain in the Whitehouse. The last few weeks confirmed that theory. It's not a prediction anymore it's the reality that he doesn't want to leave. So that will leave a mark in the crypto, stock markets, etc.
3. If Biden wins by a lot. Don't believe that this is going to happen but if he wins with 70+ percent Trump surely doesn't have a chance in court or with his republican friends. That's the only scenario where I see stocks going up. But even here Trump will probably try to destroy as much as possible till January.

In my opinion, the trillions on the side will have a big impact, but rather in Q1 or even Q2 2021. When the world is back to more or less normal. I strongly believe that there will be an extreme market movement in the next year, either a bullish phase like never seen before or the 2nd dot com bubble. But not sure what that will mean for crypto especially bitcoin if I'm honest. But I'm sure that we'll see some action in the next couple of months.
I hope for the best and once again glad that I don't live in the States. :)

Great analysis! I think you're spot on with #2.. if it is anywhere near close, we might not know who the actual winner is for months after. Who knows how much unrest there will be during those waiting months... I can see Gold and Bitcoin being a good safe haven for govt. unstableness.
 

GoodluckChuck

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The narratives are already in place to draw out the election process as long as possible. If Biden wins the popular vote, Dems will claim victory and the media will rejoice. If Trump wins the pop, the Dems and media will keep counting for as long as possible until January and try to get Pelosi in.

I don't see a scenario where Trump wins without a fight, even if he wins the votes.

Behind my opinions, I think it's all a giant reality TV show meant to distract from the real elephant in the room: Currency changes.
 

Mainstream7

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I hold some three kinds of altcoin, currently it worth about 100K USD. I don't know the technology and philosophy behind it, but I do know it has bear and bull cycle just like the stock market and much shorter than that.

My core principle is this, if I am wrong I could afford to lose, but If I am right I will make a killing, 0 OR 100x .

Whether you call it a scam or not, think me a speculator or trader whatever I just want to make money

If I do succeed then I will just put that money into some high dividend stock and just build my money system.

Dude....rip
 

Kasimir

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Great analysis! I think you're spot on with #2.. if it is anywhere near close, we might not know who the actual winner is for months after. Who knows how much unrest there will be during those waiting months... I can see Gold and Bitcoin being a good safe haven for govt. unstableness.
Thanks!
I totally agree on gold as usual in such scenarios gold will to well compared to others. But I’m not sure about bitcoins, yes in theory it should be similar to gold. But I’m just not 100% sure, yeah probably you’re right. Bitcoin is surly better then stocks at the moment, but still not convinced that it’s the best.
My problem is just we never had such an extreme situation before.
And nobody knows what is going to happen. Could be that everything ends peacefully or it could potentially end in the biggest crises ever.

Good input @GoodluckChuck totally forgot about Pelosi which could come into play when Trump wins. But petty sure that’s not going to happen.

My current prediction:
Biden wins the popular vote by around 58/42 or so. Trump will try everything to make a scandal and will try to go to the Supreme Court. If done successfully the democrats will try to get Pelosi in. Either way, it’s going to bell hell of a fight.
And it will be the best movie ever. Will be watching from a safe distance with some popcorn.
 

Sethamus

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Playing around on Asset Correlations today and since Mar-Apr there has been a positive (.2+) correlation between total US markets, GLD, and crypto(used greyscale trust). Many factors are helping each rise together in the past 6 months, but would this not be an indicator that one or two of these is being lifted up artificially?

Still doing some research but;
1.My short term bet -Late 2020-2021 is gold and blockchain up.
2. I will definitely be in the market, but keeping majority of my buying power on the sideline after I took out my gains from September. I still believe this is where the correction will come.
3. Looking into companies that focus on cloud, AI, and implementation of blockchain for the next 10 years.
4. Record # of IPOs. Big hype and the average is up untypically their first year. This has me going back to #2 - a correction in this area and looking for opportunities from #3 for when this happens.
 

Kasimir

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After the debate of the vice president and the potential future vice president of the recent action in the last days, I think I need to amend my last statement. I really underestimated the democratic party. Yes, I thought that the Trump administration will have some tricks and try to do everything possible to remain in office. But the recent days taught me that both sides are dangerous at the moment.

In my mind, it's interesting to see that more and more investors are getting more comfortable with the idea that Biden could be the next president. Interesting to read on that topic: A Clear-Cut Biden Win Is Emerging as a Bull Case for Stocks

For the US markets, it will be of a huge benefit if there was a peaceful transfer of power. And if there was as little time of uncertainty of who the winner is as possible, no matter the winner. But I don't think that will happen.
Trump knows that he is behind atm. Yes, polls can be misleading or a little inaccurate but right now Trump doesn't have a chance. And he knows that. And he isn't willing to lose, and that makes him dangerous.
Even Fox News is saying that Trump is behind in polls and not by a little: Fox News Poll: Biden gains ground over Trump

What does Trump's poor handling of COVID in the Whitehouse tell us about COVID will be handled in the future?
For me, that was the last puzzle that made it clear that corona won't disappear on Trump's leadership. So there will be a vaccine needed. If a vaccine even gets an immunity of 70% around 90 to 95% of the people would need to take it that we reach herd immunity. With still a little of social distancing, masks in place and the already infected people, you'd still need around 70 to 80% of US citizens to take it. Which is difficult to archive. So in my mind, COVID won't just disappear at the current efforts made, at least in the US. If Biden's administration would do a better job can't be answered at the moment. Obviously they rather focus on handling COVID then pushing the economy, but it's difficult to predict how they will do with such a difficult challenge.


So it's still unchanged, Gold and Bitcoin will surely go up in Q4 2020 and probably also in Q1 2021. The only change is that in my mind now all parties are ready to do everything needed to win this election, doesn't matter the costs.

The recent bullish trend of Bitcoin has surely something to do with the election but rather with an investment of Square which transferred in 1% of there assets into bitcoins. Would love to see this happening more in the next few weeks, that would be a confirmation that big businesses are scared to have their assets in USD.
What's the opinion of you guys?

Just again glad that I'm not in the US. I couldn't support either candidate to 100%, but luckily I don't have to.
I'll just eat my popcorn and watch from a safe distance and hope for the best.
 

mguerra

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Hey brothers,

Nice to be back on this thread!

Like @JamesFend, I think there's a good upside and opportunities in crypto for the next 12 months and I'm watching closely from the sidelines.

I've lost some money on 2017 due some dumb decisions and arriving late to the party. This time I'm wiser and will jump in early.

Excited to share ideas here with my fellow fastalaners and hope to see many in this thread/forum progress together.

Let's get started!
 

Donut

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I hold some three kinds of altcoin, currently it worth about 100K USD. I don't know the technology and philosophy behind it, but I do know it has bear and bull cycle just like the stock market and much shorter than that.

My core principle is this, if I am wrong I could afford to lose, but If I am right I will make a killing, 0 OR 100x .

Whether you call it a scam or not, think me a speculator or trader whatever I just want to make money

If I do succeed then I will just put that money into some high dividend stock and just build my money system.
Which 3 altcoins?
 

Sethamus

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Bitcoin in the news a lot today. Been tied up doing a refinance on my house so missed the ramp up the past weeks. Finishing it up so maybe when it bounces down from testing this high I can jump in - though later than I wanted.
 

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mguerra

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Bitcoin in the news a lot today. Been tied up doing a refinance on my house so missed the ramp up the past weeks. Finishing it up so maybe when it bounces down from testing this high I can jump in - though later than I wanted.
How low do you estimate it will bounce?
 

Timmy C

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I'm happy with my cryptocurrency positions and will no longer be adding any more until they moon or bust.

50/50 split between stocks and crypto ATM. I will be adding to ETFs for the next year.
 

Sethamus

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How low do you estimate it will bounce?
When a high is tested in the market, stocks/bitcoin whatever it can be down for a few hours. It really depends if you think the assets are going to continue to rise near term. When I figure out we are officially in a bull run in the stock market I will be putting money in like @Timmy C mentioned for 2021.

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read the 2017 stuff (sort by best post to get the majority of it) crypto took much larger swings on it's way up. I'm hoping it still acts the same and gives me a better buy position.

Any input for me @James Fend ?
 

denj

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I'm working on my blockchain business developement. Hope it is still be profitable in the next few years. I found bitcoin ad networks that can help to attract target crypto audience. It provides effective and affordable ads and it's probably the easiest and explicit way of buiyng ads these days.
 
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mguerra

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What do you guys are thinking about the BTC scenario on the upcoming US ellection and in the next 6-12 months?

It's my belief that it will only go up from there on. I came to believe that based on my perceptions of where the world is going and some recent researches on Bitcoin and other financial assets.

Of course there will be corrections, high volatility and variations on the price - which brings huge and profitable opportunities for swing trades but I'm not really interested in that.

What I'm interested is securing my share of what I believe will be the asset of the next decade (wich is scarce and have limited supply).

I'm thinking about putting 30-50% of my networth there.

I can liquidate to fiat anytime I want. Unless it tanks to $0, which I think a 5-10% probability.

The reason Im doin'g this is because blockchain seems to be a better money system than fiat/stocks. With huge potential returns (3-20x) and limited loss.


Based on that, I have two questions to ask to my most experienced fellow Fastlaners in this particular area:

1. Can anyone show me any flaws in my thinking? What could go wrong that invalidates my belief and make it a bad move?
2. What BTC wallet do you guys recomend to use in 2020?

PS: Mind you I'm still hustling and working on my business. That will never stop. So, my plan is to continue feeding this "Money System" with my earnings for the next 2-3 years or so.

Thanks in advance for your answer, boys!
 

Kasimir

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What do you guys are thinking about the BTC scenario on the upcoming US ellection and in the next 6-12 months?

It's my belief that it will only go up from there on. I came to believe that based on my perceptions of where the world is going and some recent researches on Bitcoin and other financial assets.

Of course there will be corrections, high volatility and variations on the price - which brings huge and profitable opportunities for swing trades but I'm not really interested in that.

What I'm interested is securing my share of what I believe will be the asset of the next decade (wich is scarce and have limited supply).

I'm thinking about putting 30-50% of my networth there.

I can liquidate to fiat anytime I want. Unless it tanks to $0, which I think a 5-10% probability.

The reason Im doin'g this is because blockchain seems to be a better money system than fiat/stocks. With huge potential returns (3-20x) and limited loss.


Based on that, I have two questions to ask to my most experienced fellow Fastlaners in this particular area:

1. Can anyone show me any flaws in my thinking? What could go wrong that invalidates my belief and make it a bad move?
2. What BTC wallet do you guys recomend to use in 2020?

PS: Mind you I'm still hustling and working on my business. That will never stop. So, my plan is to continue feeding this "Money System" with my earnings for the next 2-3 years or so.

Thanks in advance for your answer, boys!
Sounds like an interesting move. At first sight I can’t see any big flaws in your method. I like looking into and finding the the source which would support my theory. I’m thinking about doing a move too. Either putting more in or getting some out which I invested at 8.8k.
Not sure what I’ll do. But probably decide today or tomorrow. Will inform you and tell you what my exact opinion is. Cheers
 

Andreas Thiel

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What do you guys are thinking about the BTC scenario on the upcoming US ellection and in the next 6-12 months?

It's my belief that it will only go up from there on. I came to believe that based on my perceptions of where the world is going and some recent researches on Bitcoin and other financial assets.

Of course there will be corrections, high volatility and variations on the price - which brings huge and profitable opportunities for swing trades but I'm not really interested in that.

What I'm interested is securing my share of what I believe will be the asset of the next decade (wich is scarce and have limited supply).

I'm thinking about putting 30-50% of my networth there.

I can liquidate to fiat anytime I want. Unless it tanks to $0, which I think a 5-10% probability.

The reason Im doin'g this is because blockchain seems to be a better money system than fiat/stocks. With huge potential returns (3-20x) and limited loss.


Based on that, I have two questions to ask to my most experienced fellow Fastlaners in this particular area:

1. Can anyone show me any flaws in my thinking? What could go wrong that invalidates my belief and make it a bad move?
2. What BTC wallet do you guys recomend to use in 2020?

PS: Mind you I'm still hustling and working on my business. That will never stop. So, my plan is to continue feeding this "Money System" with my earnings for the next 2-3 years or so.

Thanks in advance for your answer, boys!
You write that you can liquidate to fiat anytime ... but how well are you prepared for a 40%, 60% or 80% loss when you do it?

A bear case could look like this:

We have seen that Bitcoin gets sold when cash is needed. Another credit crunch is extremely likely. Mining Bitcoin is expensive and the halvings create a need for higher prices. What happens when prices go down and miners start throwing in the towel? That could potentially be the end of Bitcoin (which could mean: Bitcoin hovering around $6000 with extremely low trading volume).

Investors need to embrace Bitcoin as one of the best investments for the bull case. Money that is now in Gold, Bonds, equity etc. has to be moved into Bitcoin. I think this could turn into a competition with a winner takes all dynamic. And the value of equity is just more easily understood ... so I think this (probably big tech stocks mostly) is the competitor to look out for. Why else would the Nasdaq be where it is now? When Bitcoin is cheap and equity as well ... what will most people buy?

You could start at 10% of your networth ... and not increase that until you see signs of significant inflows compared to equity.
 
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mguerra

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You write that you can liquidate to fiat anytime ... but how well are you prepared for a 40%, 60% or 80% loss when you do it?

A bear case could look like this:

We have seen that Bitcoin gets sold when cash is needed. Another credit crunch is extremely likely. Mining Bitcoin is expensive and the halvings create a need for higher prices. What happens when prices go down and miners start throwing in the towel? That could potentially be the end of Bitcoin (which could mean: Bitcoin hovering around $6000 with extremely low trading volume).

Investors need to embrace Bitcoin as one of the best investments for the bull case. Money that is now in Gold, Bonds, equity etc. has to be moved into Bitcoin. I think this could turn into a competition with a winner takes all dynamic. And the value of equity is just more easily understood ... so I think this (probably big tech stocks mostly) is the competitor to look out for. Why else would the Nasdaq be where it is now? When Bitcoin is cheap and equity as well ... what will most people buy?

You could start at 10% of your networth ... and not increase that until you see signs of significant inflows compared to equity.

Thanks for your response, brother.

Answering to your question: I'm putting money that I am "okay" with losing, so any potential losses of 60-80% would be swallowed and I would learn a lesson.

But as I'm planning to have the other 50% of my networth in fiat, hopefully I wouldn't have to liquidate the loss in case of a temporary crash in prices.

Now if BTC comes to an end, like in the scenario you articulated, I'd be with my eyes on the market to jump out before the train falls off the cliff.

My plan is to take profits regularly (on the bulls) so I can compensate for that.

BTW... What do you think is most likely to happen in a near future? Mass adoption of BTC/other cryptos or BTC coming to an end?

I think that all this news about big banks and big companies signing contracts with blockchain technologies may be a indicator that this is the future.
 

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