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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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James Fend

James Fend

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Spent a few hours today to study the Bitcoin market and came up with this analysis of the two likely paths I am watching closely for entry into another swing trade.

Screen Shot 2019-11-26 at 1.01.06 AM.png

- - - pasted from my TradingView - - -

There's two routes I think Bitcoin has a strong chance it will take. Blue Line and Orange Line. Both of which eventually reach $8,800 or higher by mid January, but with a prime opportunity and spot (green circle area at the top trend line ) to fill the CME $11.7k gap; I am hoping we touch that price instead by mid-January.

The two paths depend heavily on if we make it back above the weekly 50 MA or not this week. I lean heavily towards the Blue Line being most likely to happen which is that it will fail, dump down, create a shoulder, create a head (local bottom possibly on weekly 200 MA), and a last shoulder (this all in December) that should ultimately take this inverse head and shoulders pattern sideways out of the descending channel and exiting out the right (sometime in the first or second week of January). I don't think we are in a descending wedge (meaning the bottom is actually much lower than people anticipate but much higher than the super bears), and I believe we don't "shoot" out of this channel, but rather hit the bottom trend line of it again, then kind of scoot along sideways until we're out of it.

Here are some other factors I'm looking at:

- End of year. Annual wash trade to get those capital gains taxes in check. Which btw; the US has no tax wash laws for crypto currently. I don't forsee any rallys coming in December except a bottom and then a range before a following rally that will occur in early 2020. An inverse head and shoulders play would be perfect here in December, and it would also be a reverse pattern strong and convincing enough to warrant a rally to $11.7k starting possibly in January. I am not certain if we find an "absolute bottom" for this entire Bitcoin thing, but I do think we find a local bottom sometime in December that would be a good entry to a possibly relief rally.

- CME gap at $11.7k. Gaps don't have to be filled any time; it could be weeks, months, even years. However, I'm thinking CME is aiming for sooner rather than later. The top trend line drawn from the peaks of the two big rallys puts the price $11,700k in that January month. I think this would be a good spot where it would meet and touch the price and then get knocked back down from the top trend line resistance.

- Retail trader's sentiment is about 50/50 right now. The big overall trend is Down however, and it is likely the big ocean current will continue winning for the mid-term.

- The future Halving imo should not be too heavily weighted as I believe Bitcoin since the last halving include much bigger, financially experienced whales that not only have the ability to short (and capital and time), but to be able to Price In events before they are even in the picture view yet. It might be a possibly that the last rally with the $13k top was indeed the Pricing In.

- CNBC has unleashed a flury of negative bearish tweets including bad news of big drops, and a short article posted appearing on the front main website page. CNBC coupled with FUD from China's crypto bans. However, Usually with public "bad" news - it will create a short term opposite move (in this case a short bounce) but then return back to actually being bear'ish just like CNBC is presenting. However, it usually also means that there is a local bottom not too distant with only one or two more legs down in the sell off.

It's probably more stuff I looked into and analyzed and can't think of. Kind of short on time, but hopefully this gives you an another perspective or angle towards your own predictions. Anyways... Good luck.
 

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James Fend

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Same chart from a few posts ago. I was leaning towards the Blue line and failing the 50 weekly MA, however, so far the price action is following the Orange line. If so, then should be a slow trek upwards in December with a really good January. There are a couple stipulations that MUST be met with price action for this to follow through:

1. The weekly candle closes at least $350+ above the weekly 50 MA price (~$7,600+)

2. On the retrace from the $8,000 20 daily MA, it should retest and touch the weekly 50 MA and hold it.

3. If things can hold there and not break, then that should be the "Go" signal for most algorithms.

Good luck.


 

Debby_Tompkins

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Hey Fastlaners,
As Bitcoin is slowly becoming the real deal. I wanted to give Bitcoin it's own thread containing just long-term & short-term predictions & any big crypto news to help any others who's trading, hodling, etc. a place to throw in your predictions & any actions you plan on taking.

I see the current stage of Bitcoin & crypto as the new Napster & Limewire. Industry bigs (middle-men) will do all they can to fight it & shut it down, but they will soon find out - You can't beat the under-lying ideals & world-changing tech. It will carry on & win out in other forms because the market has experienced the benefits and the market always wins (it will even beat out government regulations).

Bitcoin is in the experienced the benefits stage. As more and more adopt to use Bitcoin as a form of payment (even if the sellers offering to take Btc as payment are valuing on speculative price/trading); the fact remains: They are still using Bitcoin as currency. It is being used as the real deal of exchange between goods & money.

Predictions Nov 8, 2017:
A fork titled B2X was recently cancelled (or "suspended") by their own backers & creators. This is going to give Btc a big bull-run for the next week or so to ~$9,000.

Once it hits this; if the bull-run slows down; a market correction drop of ~20-30% will hit around early or mid December. This will be a short-lived correction though as many are waiting on the sideline (who haven't jumped in the game) for this drop to happen and ready to buy into Bitcoin.

With or without this market correction happening; I strongly believe Btc will at least flirt with $10k before the year is over with.

My actions: I am going to Hodl until I see about a ~15% drop then going to sell half of my coins to later re-buy in once it begins climbing back from the drop. Then Hodl, Hodl, Hodl.
Thanks, it was quiet informative.
 
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James Fend

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Just FYI.. I am still eye'ing a possible $11,800 touch near the end of January. If not then, in February. By end of March, a sell off should start occurring in preparation for the "halving".

Here's a pasted comment I made regarding why I think this run up to near $12,000 is likely to occur.

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

entiment: grief. anger.

result: bearish bias causing sentiment mis-read that only fits bias

mis-read: euphoria and greed are not the same sentiment. either sentiment can exist without the presence of another. there “greed” is incorrectly identified by a large margin.

actual greed: bulls are happy. yet bulls are cautious near the major 200dma resist line. bulls if greedy would be piling on. in fact, the exact opposite is happening. shorts are at all time highs by 2x to 3x which indicates many over leveraged. THAT is the actual greed. “Timing the top” is GREED, happy but exercising extreme caution including partial profit taking is NOT greed (that is actually minor fear)

likely outcome: smart investors identify this counter-signal of anger and surprise pump the price clean through the 200dma ($9000) after a fakeout drop from consolidation.

the strong push pump will liquidate the ath of over leveraged shorts (greedy) and force other shorts to cover.. this ultimately results in creating an equally strong price push in addition to the whales 200dma break pump

recommendation: do not short. play the upcoming consolidation correctly and neutrally.


note: sentiment usually goes: relief > happy > euphoria > invincibility > and finally greed.

current: bulls = between relief and happy. bears = grief. anger. revenge. clouded logic due to over whelming hidden emotions.
 

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I warned everyone I knew back in 2017 that apart from bitcoin, all the other coins were worthless. I know someone who’s lost 60k. I hope people avoid all those coins.
 
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ZZZ

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I wanted everyone I knew back in 2017 that apart from bitcoin, all the other coins were worthless. I know someone who’s lost 60k. I hope people avoid all those coins.
You aren't talking about Eth, bcash, monero, ripple, right? Those certainly aren't worthless.
I agree 99% of altcoins are crap. But the top 25 or so aren't. Monero for example is unique & valuable because it's totally private transactions. Ripple is fast, takes seconds to use compared to bitcoin taking an hour sometimes for a few confirmations.
 

Rivoli

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You aren't talking about Eth, bcash, monero, ripple, right? Those certainly aren't worthless.
I agree 99% of altcoins are crap. But the top 25 or so aren't. Monero for example is unique & valuable because it's totally private transactions. Ripple is fast, takes seconds to use compared to bitcoin taking an hour sometimes for a few confirmations.

Those are worthless, in my best judgment.
 

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To you, losing 90% of value isn’t enough to consider a investment worthless?
All due respect, this is a very strange metric for considering the validity of an investment.



AMZN has lost over 90% of its value before. Would you consider Amazon worthless?
 

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To you, losing 90% of value isn’t enough to consider a investment worthless?
Sorry, I guess I should have been more clear in my question of "Why do you think they aren't worth anything".

Do you mind sharing what your friend invested in 2017 that caused him to lose $60k? Maybe we can learn something other than just "Altcoin bad!"
 

Rivoli

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Sorry, I guess I should have been more clear in my question of "Why do you think they aren't worth anything".

Do you mind sharing what your friend invested in 2017 that caused him to lose $60k? Maybe we can learn something other than just "Altcoin bad!"
Etherium and litecoin. He only owns bitcoin now
 

nitrousflame

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During the 2001 recession. These dropped 90% in value at the top of a bull market.
Would you mind clarifying this response? I don't think I understand the difference between AMZN dropping 90%+ during an equity recession (bear market) compared to BTC, ETH, etc dropping a similar amount during a crypto bear market.

Or, if you wish, we can stick with the crypto market. Bitcoin has had several such severe drops. What makes Bitcoin fail your "worthless" metric?
 

Rivoli

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Would you mind clarifying this response? I don't think I understand the difference between AMZN dropping 90%+ during an equity recession (bear market) compared to BTC, ETH, etc dropping a similar amount during a crypto bear market.

Or, if you wish, we can stick with the crypto market. Bitcoin has had several such severe drops. What makes Bitcoin fail your "worthless" metric?
Really? Why in your opinion is crypto in a bear market?
 

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Really? Why in your opinion is crypto in a bear market?
The reason why crypto is in a bear market is separate from the claim that an investment losing 90% of its value deems it a worthless investment. What I'm trying to work out is why you seem to think that Bitcoin is not worthless, despite itself having lost over 90% of its value on more than one occasion. Have I incorrectly interpreted something you said?
 
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James Fend

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There's two routes I think Bitcoin has a strong chance it will take. Blue Line and Orange Line. Both of which eventually reach $8,800 or higher by mid January, but with a prime opportunity and spot (green circle area at the top trend line ) to fill the CME $11.7k gap; I am hoping we touch that price instead by mid-January.
This was posted about 2 months ago.. So far, so good. I am off by about 15 days too early lol. But by some miracle, the overall trend followed really closely to that initial prediction chart.

At this point; the possibility for a "golden cross" of the 50 daily moving average to cross back over the 200 daily moving average is getting better in odds. If we can hold above this ~$9,000 price, retest, reconfirm, the odds would be really good.

In which point; alts would follow by default. And when Bitcoin kind of poots out of gas closer to halving in April/May; I would expect a bit of an ALT Season!... *gasp* Can't believe I really just said those two words lol.
 
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James Fend

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As I'm finally kicking myself into making videos even if it's crap at first... I am doing it lol. Anyways; here's why I think there will be a good chance to rally to $11.8k over the next month or so leading up the Halving.. and what my initial thoughts are for the Halving and it's effects itself.

 
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James Fend

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FYI; I'm still holding strong onto my big trend predictions from last year. Things are shaping up fairly well to it.

Here's a slightly smaller time frame of the trends I'm kind of eye'ing.

30137

Pasted Text from the TradingView idea:

Fundamentally; I don't see why not. Things lining up just right.
  • 2018 - 2019: Shorters mainly won. Longers mainly lost.
  • 2020 - 2021 = Longers mainly win. Shorters mainly lose. (people shorting the bottom getting greedy)
  • Golden Cross possible.
  • Gold sharing similar big trend price actions.
  • CME $100 gap.
  • Huge weekly cup & handle possible. Shares same emotional cycle so far of "last side of cup" found in smaller cup & handles.
  • "Steepness" of big timeframe MAs.
  • Volume is a concern, but not necessarily a definitive 'con' as volume can come mid-way and mis-judging volume too early in between the gap is commonly done.

Things To Look For:
  • 200MA retests and success or failures.
  • Random, common folk. (insert Homer Simpson meme where he comes out of the bushes)
  • What the more popular PermaBears show in underlying emotions. Anger, bias, gone missing, denial, etc. etc. All of this can be seen reading in between the lines. Even the action of going missing when they are terribly wrong give off emotional state signals. (Bonus: PermaBears usually appear out of no where or become much more active as we near the lip of the "last side of the cup", there shorts usually explode in numbers, the price drops into the first part of the "handle" and the PermaBears say "I told you so", etc. As it reaches to it's low and ranges, PermaBears grow more confident and "invincible" that prices cannot go up because certain "indicators" were "broken" below. Shorts ever increase. Then the uptrend occurs from the bottom of the handle to possibly break the line and explode up leaving many short covering, liquidations, etc. that help drive the price in it's second and third leg of pumps after whales push prices to break the "handle neckline" when PermaBears are feeling Invincible. Rinse, repeat. I believe this year (and 2021) is where in general, Bears will lose if they fight against the overall uptrend.

Good luck!
 
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James Fend

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I am predicting we hit the top around mid-next week and begin a fairly nice size sell off (Feb 10-11ish) to begin a downtrend for couple months then another rally to create a double top in May then downturn all the way to November.
Gold & Bitcoin will continue to move inversely to stocks this entire year.

(just for today's reference looking back at this post in a month. DJI: 29,040. Bitcoin: $9,473. Gold: $1,556)
On Feb 5th I wrote these in that recession thread (don't want to hi-jack that thread), and here are the updated prices:

February 11th
DJI: 29,402. (on Feb. 12th was the highest peak at 29,562)
Bitcoin: $9736
Gold: $1563

February 24th
DJI: 28,026
Bitcoin: $9706 (peak high price today was actually $10,000)
Gold: $1689

It will be very interesting to me to see if the crazy things I say actually do come to life lol.. (especially since those were my thoughts during the middle of stocks FLYING). Literally Feb 11th and 12th was the actual pivot reversal point thus far.

Some thoughts...

Dow Jones went down 4.79%, Gold went up 7.74%, and Bitcoin kind of stayed* the same.

* And this is what I want to point out for Bitcoin. Bitcoin in that time frame, unlike DJI and Gold (which went up/down, topped, then reversed); Bitcoin actually began pulling back on Feb 13th from $10,500.

So Bitcoin went from $9736, then shot up 7.55% to $10,500 (when stocks began to pullback) then went back down to the current day price of $9700.

Now this is the key "when stocks began to pullback". Money flowed into Bitcoin from stocks in a hidden way. Only in hindsight can we see that on Feb 11th; the stocks topped in price.. and in hindsight, we can also see where the money began leaking and flowing into hedging assets like Gold and Bitcoin. I mention HIDDEN because an equal pullback occurred on Bitcoin since Feb 11th to where if a normal person was to look at just the prices (now that the public is awoke to a possibility that last week was the top and we are now experiencing a downfall), they would not see Bitcoin as a hedging asset, and they would only see the obvious Gold.

I believe this to be a key play.

Thus, I believe that Bitcoin will continue to go up and the next movements will likely be in about 24-72 hours. Now that the public is getting its first dose of "stock sell off" fear, on the 2nd or 3rd day of selling off when the "stock sell off is garnering it's highest amount of attention", Bitcoin will begin pumping again and catching eyeballs of the average investor.

That will in turn lead to curiosity, leading to halving research, leading to even more money transfer from stocks to Bitcoin.
 
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James Fend

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Quick update on my current take on markets:

Over-reaction. Economically, yes Coronavirus on China reduced production will have an effect on our economy, but that will soon pass after at most a quarter and a half. Then things will return to "normal" with a flat to slightly upward trajectory. (vs the sell off down trends we will likely have for Q1 and Q2)

Right now; there is a crazy height of market fear thinking the US is going to have an all out disease control. I doubt it, healthcare is much better here and we already have a 100x step head start, whereas China neglected the virus until it went out of control.

Anyways... Stocks will be MEH until elections. Bitcoin and Gold will continue to rise over the next months to almost the end of the year.

At this $9300 Bitcoin price, I doubled down on some positions... I am hoping that we find the local bottom here and continue the bullish trend up to $11.8k or $13k to end March or early April. Then I plan to get back into fiat.

EDIT Add:
DJI at 27,200. The DJI for the past weeks has been full of "retail average Joe" traders. This is what we are seeing now; the selling off from them. We are near a local bottom and expect a bounce the rest of this week and next. Big money players know better than to sell at the bottom. They will buy up at bargain right now, pump the price, and likely another drop near the second (maybe first) week of March. The "retail average Joes" will sell and watch the price go back up over the next two weeks, feel stupid for over-reacting, buy back in, and the big players will dump.

Same with BTC. From $9,700 on down to current price is all "retail average Joes" panic selling. The price will rise again from this $9,300 just like the DJI.
 
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steelandchrome

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Always the worst when the average Joe's massive influx into trading and its always at the highs from FOMO. One or two bad days and they panic sell vs holding as we are seeing now. I'm looking to add capital to the markets (not adding to my crypto portfolio right now, but that could change...) I do anticipate a bit of an ALT rally and when it does I'm going to weed out of everything but BTC and ETH. (May keep a light position in LTC and LINK)
 
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James Fend

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Wow.. Took a fairly good size loss today. Got caught off guard on a crash that broke down below the 200 daily MA. Expensive lessons learned here for me. Will do better going forward!

With that said; I need to re-analyze Bitcoin again and see where things are now and where things need to pivot and where they might head as the current prediction had it bouncing off the $9300 area back to up fill the $11.8k gap.

Will post again here shortly..
 
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So.... I decided I'm moving any posts (past and current) regarding my analysis on all markets (stock, economy, crypto, gold, etc.) to this thread instead of the big Recession one.

  • My fundamental analysis is non-traditional and often "crazy" due it's contrarian views and timing. Almost as anti-technical as you can get.

  • By some miracle, my analysis were deadly spot-on, and I believe they warrant much more attention. Important: I DO NOT want to convince anybody with my fundamentals, however, it would be beneficial to always take into account different perspectives when creating your own (as should be with all things!)

EDIT 2/28/2020:
As I literally was writing out a summary (that took 2 hours) of all the predictions I posted on that thread and noting them with being Wrong or Right or To Be Determined; whatever powers may be, my browser tab decided 'go back' then 'forward' then 'exit' and I lost it all. Very frustrating, and I take that as a sign.

Anyways; not doing that again so I am making this chicken scratch notes (feel free to dig through my old postings):

  • I predicted exact top of major stock market sell off on Feb 11th due to Coronavirus that I predicted weeks before.
  • I predicted Gold would boom in January. (I made a shitload of money) as stock markets were being distributed into weak hands aka the TOP.
  • I predicted stock markets would continue flying upwards in a bull market to all time highs in August 2019 when fears was at maximum for Recession via Inverted Yield Curve event.

To Be Determined:
  • GREAT DEPRESSION IN ~2029, and right now is the Roaring 20's all over again.
    • The Internet brought us the economic boom and has tapped out in innovation.
  • Oil Prices could be a sleeper catalyst to recession.
  • The East is buying up all the Gold, and a remix version of the Gold Reserve Act of 1934 would re-emerge within the next 20 years.

I currently spent 10 hours analyzing if this MAJOR stock market sell off is indeed the beginning of a recession. Most of it, right now, is going to be determined by how the stock market behaves AFTER it's relief bounce pump to fill some gaps. I am leaning towards a double-top'ish hard crash again after the relief pump, but we'll see. I have to time NEWS into the equation.

Obviously people are at ALL TIME HIGH FEARS so it's probably a good time to buy to make some easy money for the short-term relief bounces.
 
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James Fend

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LADIES AND GENTLEMEN.... START YOUR RECESSION ENGINES!

I am now declaring with my bro-science fundamentals that we are officially entering inside Recession Territory. (5-6 years from now will I look back at this dated post and either go: 'you F*ckin wizard' or you 'F*ckin lunatic'). Either my 10 hours of analyzing last night was wasted, or I am about to capitalize BIG.

One:
We will see a relief bounce in Stocks followed by more long-term downside. Basically; a double top is what I'm calling. Here's why...

The incoming relief bounce that will happen over the next week or so is entirely comprised of "average Joes" aka Weak Hands aka the same people who bought from Dow Jones 25,000 to 30,000 aka people who think they are about to "buy blood in the streets" and "major sale prices on stocks"... Oh, they haven't experienced what real blood is yet. They are mistaken a bad cut with blood.

"Buy when there's blood on the streets", a bad cut isn't enough to spill blood on the street from people in their houses. Think About It.

The big players are out aka The Support aka The Strong Hands. Now we have a bunch of Weak Hands buying a bounce equals a price compromised of more quick sell-off whenever the rock gets rolling off the hill.

Two:
As mentioned numerous times in another Recession thread that I am moving my own analysis away from; I said (during the Inverted Yield Curve days) when public's interest goes to "dead" levels in the terms "Recession" and "Inverted Yield Curve" meaning Google Trends shows a dead dribble on the bottom coupled with an overlay of the Stock Market prices growing exponentially over that dead dribble is when the STOCK MARKET BIG SELL OFF AND RECESSION WOULD HAPPEN. And guess what...?? It happened.

Ironically; the bottom of stock market prices will happen when STOCK PRICES ARE DEAD but when public interest in RECESSION terms are spiked.


Third:

Silly bro-science fundamentals. But.. F*ckin TV Commercials. Too many damn commercials. I've noticed a trend where on major news, etc. etc. channels, commercial times have increased and air times have decreased.

This to me indicates Invincibility. The LAST STAGE OF ANY RUN UP. And we hit the tipping point on February 11-12.


Could I be completely wrong? Sure I could. But eventually; I have to come to terms with myself that my fundamentals and ability to analyze emotional sentiment is often spot-on.
 
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James Fend

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This brings me to back full circle around to Crypto. I have been looking at things every which way on how it all synchronizes...

I am leaning towards NOT GOOD. For short-term and mid-term.. I see a bottom that I have no idea where it's at (possibly mid $7000s) and until I see evidence of accumulation range and behavior by Strong Hands aka Whales, I am not married on a direction just yet for the long-term (meaning: How and what Bitcoin does post-halving)

Mathematically; post-halving should raise prices, but I need to first see if that was already priced in earlier this year or not. More on this later in the coming days...
 
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James Fend

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This is what I am eye'ing as a possibility for Bitcoin to do over the next three months. Pretty much, a drop to $7,600ish and then possibly to even lower $7,000ish (pink line) followed by a run up to $13k over the next two months reaching it in early May before Halving. Or green line where $7,600ish is the bottom.

This exact pattern can be almost identical to what US Stocks will do as well since they are very much tethered together right now. Except obviously US Stocks wouldn't pump up on the last part, but as long as it's a slow upward trend (or rather staying supported and clear of Coronavirus stuff) then Bitcoin should have a chance to fly.
 

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