The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[BizyDad]

You know, while this all sucks, let’s take a minute to appreciate the global response to all this on everyone’s part.

Amazon started prioritizing necessity items and hired 150,000 new employees.

Data Scientists and Mathematicians have begun doing free projections.

Websites have been set up to track the numbers.

The left and the right have been slightly less eager to kill eachother

Clorox has been ramping up production as much as possible and urging buyers to buy only what they need.

And this whole interconnected world we built is really shining more than ever.

Don’t get me wrong, this is still terrible; especially in italy, but had this happened 30 years ago I think this would have been 100x worse.

Your posts have the strangest kind of optimism I have ever encountered. I don't have words for it. It isn't naive or uninformed. Quite the opposite. But it doesn't quite seem like sound reasoning either.

I mean no disrespect. Just making an observation. It is just a weird brand of optimism. You march to your own drum. That's cool.

Congrats on being legendary.

We don’t shut down the economy for the 20,000 people that die from the normal flu here. We could shut it down to save lives. Why don’t we?

Rush for Jobless Benefits Crashes New York State Website (Published 2020)

Mayor Bill de Blasio said that New York City was taking steps to add hospital beds as the coronavirus outbreak continued to spread.

www.nytimes.com

treasury sec said jobless rate will go from 3% to 20% unemployment. Double the unemployment during 2008 crisis. We should just quarantine elderly and sick. Let everyone else get immunity. Then it won’t come back next season.

And your posts have the weirdest kind of pessimism.

I know, I know, don't feed the trolls.

But the flu is predictable. 30-40 died in Vegas from the flu last year. The same will this year, roughly.

The economic decision is easier.

But we don't know what this is capable of. And the possibility and threat of it being much much worse than 30-40 has governments erring on the side of caution.

When they run models of the worst case for the flu, cities stay open. When they model worst case for CV, likely due to incomplete data, governments don't feel like they can take the chance.

If this becomes seasonal I expect we won't keep closing down cities. Especially once there is a vaccine. Unless this proves to be historically deadly. And it still might.

But it is weird how you trust one government prediction about how bad it gets, and not trust the other predictions.

20% unemployment? Maybe a nothing burger?

So just calm down, keep your social distance, and try not to upset the locals.

The UK abandoned its coronavirus plan after realizing it would have resulted in 'hundreds of thousands of deaths'

The previous UK plan would have caused 'hundreds of thousands of deaths' and overwhelmed the healthcare system, a new report estimates.

www.yahoo.com

I'll leave you all with this thought, that I also never saw coming...

 

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[minivanman]

View: https://media.giphy.com/media/bJjlKoJuFZxCw/giphy.gif

 

[Ing]

I want to say a word about my further posts, which didn’t get approval by most:

the fact, that I m not afraid of the virus due to my posted arguments doesn’t mean, that I don’t follow the recommendations!

I avoid cowds, wash my hands ( at least as much and often as always), I don’t visit my dad.....

Thats my social responsibility

The other side, what I wrote,is my opinion.

Please see the difference!

 

[nowap]

Read in different reliable sources that the use of Ibuprofen can worsen the infection if you have C0VlD-19.

So if you are at home with high temperature, and you want to take something - use paracetamol, not ibuprofen.

In the USA you probably have different names for these medicines.

(besides the fact that many doctors say (and I believe so as well, as a total non-expert) that it's better to not suppres a fever since it's a natural response of the body against the infection and actually helps with fighting it.)

 

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[Timmy C]

Everyone is saying this is serious and I'm leaning on that side to.

Then can someone tell me why one of the smartest people in the world Elon musk thinks the panic is dumb and we should just get on with things?

 

[Mattie]

Half of Dutch coronavirus intensive care patients are under 50

Half of the coronavirus victims admitted to intensive care are under the age of 50. Coronavirus can cause severe respiratory problems in younger people.

www.iamexpat.nl

 

[ChrisV]

We don’t shut down the economy for the 20,000 people that die from the normal flu here. We could shut it down to save lives. Why don’t we?

Because the normal flu doesn’t completely overwhelm and shut down hospitals.

But I’m ‘beginning’ to suspect that any attempts of reasoning with you are completely in vain.

Everyone is saying this is serious and I'm leaning on that side to.

Then can someone tell me why one of the smartest people in the world Elon musk thinks the panic is dumb and we should just get on with things?

Because that was weeeeeekkkkkssss ago. Before this all got serious.

 

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[Ernman]

We don’t shut down the economy for the 20,000 people that die from the normal flu here. We could shut it down to save lives. Why don’t we?

The only reason I haven't "ignored" your posts is I find your position entertaining. I'm amazed that someone is either this ignorant or is able to play this game as long as you've been at it. I had thought to spend some time trying to explain why we must treat C0VlD-19 differently than the influenza we deal with every year, but it's clear from your posts in this thread you aren't interested.

 

[ChrisV]

The only reason I haven't "ignored" your posts is I find your position entertaining. I'm amazed that someone is either this ignorant or is able to play this game as long as you've been at it. I had thought to spend some time trying to explain why we must treat C0VlD-19 differently than the influenza we deal with every year, but it's clear from your posts in this thread you aren't interested.

I’m waiting for him to come back to the thread asking for advice for his ‘sniffles.’

 

[Ernman]

Read in different reliable sources that the use of Ibuprofen can worsen the infection if you have C0VlD-19.

So if you are at home with high temperature, and you want to take something - use paracetamol, not ibuprofen.

In the USA you probably have different names for these medicines.

(besides the fact that many doctors say (and I believe so as well, as a total non-expert) that it's better to not suppres a fever since it's a natural response of the body against the infection and actually helps with fighting it.)

I have read the same. Tylenol (acetaminophen) seems to be the better alternative.

 

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[Longinus]

Everyone is saying this is serious and I'm leaning on that side to.

Then can someone tell me why one of the smartest people in the world Elon musk thinks the panic is dumb and we should just get on with things?

Because the panic is harming more than the virus. It's why the drama posts also in this thread make me cringe af.

Like people are posting only empty shelves, other people can't put this into context and start freaking out. Yes, there are some empty shelves, doesn't mean there will be a worldwide famine. Overproduction is now showing it's helpful in times like these.

Just do what's within your control and stay cool.

If we look it from the bright side, this crisis is also showing the best in people. Countries worldwide are cooperating and helping each other to fight the virus together. At least it's better than fighting each other. Maybe we can draw lessons from this in case one day there will be a more lethal virus with a much higher death rate.

 

[Timmy C]

Because the normal flu doesn’t completely overwhelm and shut down hospitals.

But I’m ‘beginning’ to suspect that any attempts of reasoning with you are completely in vain.



Because that was weeeeeekkkkkssss ago. Before this all got serious.

Not so sure about that, I mean from what I gather he still thinks it's dumb.

I believe he is posting stuff that could help now because he realises he can't win that argument.

I could be wrong he could have changed his mind.

Still doesn't change the fact the economy will be F*cked though I guess.

 

[aspenriver]

Russia deploying fake news is not something new, but doing it about the virus seems just downright evil

Russia deploying coronavirus disinformation to sow panic in West, EU document says

 

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[ZF Lee]

The last few days in Malaysia were a whirlwind:
1. Me gets tip on TFLF to go stock up on supplies

2. Me goes out to buy, while family laughs and people keep living as usual

3. Case numbers spike, especially when a huge mosque meeting spread it out:

Made in Malaysia: How mosque event spread virus to SE Asia

Out of Malaysia’s 673 confirmed infections, nearly two-thirds are linked to the four-day meeting outside Kuala Lumpur.

www.aljazeera.com

4. Travel restrictions get enforced, as well as the order to shut down all businesses and public places up until 31 March (except for water, electric power, post, stores with food, etc.)

5. Interstate travel was supposed to be banned by midnight 17/3, but too many damned people queued up at the police stations for permits, and clogged up the highway (to flee to the rural areas), that they had to pull back the order.

Now I'm not sure whether that interstate travel ban order is still in motion.

6. I left earlier for my hometown, before the worst of the jams (with an extra stash of food lol). I remember passing by my nearby Jaya Grocer, and it was F*ckING FULL of people for DAYS.

7. Somehow an order comes out for universities to STOP e-learning.
(My degree gonna go to shambles, at this rate, so much for Slowlane)

8. I'm half-thinking of going into the jungles with nothing, but an axe and sweet potatoes, like my ancestors did during the Japanese Occupation lol.

9. Have never been busier in my life, arranging freelancing proposals and reading on bear market investing

 

[ddzc]

To all you peeps who read this thread weeks ago, analyzed the data, and make the right decisions, I salute you. And I share with you what you spared yourself from.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1239676109731647491

View: https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1239676109731647491

Holy fuk! Isn't their grocery delivery services down there? I've been ordering and shipping food and supplies to my house every other week.

 

[Andy Black]

Not so sure about that, I mean from what I gather he still thinks it's dumb.

I believe he is posting stuff that could help now because he realises he can't win that argument.

I could be wrong he could have changed his mind.

Still doesn't change the fact the economy will be F*cked though I guess.

Smart at A doesn’t mean smart at B.

 

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[Andy Black]

To all you peeps who read this thread weeks ago, analyzed the data, and make the right decisions, I salute you. And I share with you what you spared yourself from.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1239676109731647491

View: https://twitter.com/lopp/status/1239676109731647491

Whaaaaaaaaaaat?!? That queue though. Is there even anything left in that store?


The head of state in Ireland gave a very calm but serious address last night on St. Patrick’s Day. They’re expecting 15,000 confirmed cases in Ireland by the end of the month. I think we’re at 300+ at the moment.

 

[Ernman]

Everyone is saying this is serious and I'm leaning on that side to.

Then can someone tell me why one of the smartest people in the world Elon musk thinks the panic is dumb and we should just get on with things?

It's a good question Timmy. Mr. Musk is a thinker. Panic is the opposite of thinking. When we panic we make bad decisions and do stupid things. This is a time to think, listen to the science and take appropriate precautionary action.

 

[ChrisV]

Not so sure about that, I mean from what I gather he still thinks it's dumb.

I believe he is posting stuff that could help now because he realises he can't win that argument.

I could be wrong he could have changed his mind.

Still doesn't change the fact the economy will be F*cked though I guess.

Yea I looked it up after you said something and it looks like he’s maintaining that idea.

Elon Musk says 'coronavirus panic is worse than virus itself' in email to Tesla employees

Elon Musk sent a new email to all Tesla employees today to share some thoughts about the coronavirus as the...

electrek.co

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-elon-musk-tesla-workers-can-stay-home-C0VlD-19-2020-3

Elon Musk underplays coronavirus threat, tells employees that car crashes are more dangerous

Musk doesn’t appear to be too worried about coronavirus.

www.theverge.com

Elon Musk is a smart guy, but I suspect he’s mildly autistic (i mean that literally.. autistic people have a hard time understanding ‘human’ stuff and are extremely logical)

But he’s not wrong. Car crashes kill millions. Does that mean we should stop trying to make cars safer? If there’s a pile -up of 500 cars should we refuse to send paramedics because “oh well millions die anyway”

I can’t follow his thinking here.

Or maybe he’s right. I mean i can’t imagine anyone who is actively trying so hard to save the human race would be so negligent toward it.

But also keep in mind that while Musk is smart, he’s not an infectious disease expert. The people who study this (epidemiologists) are saying this is bad. Musk is a technologist.

I mean like @Primeperiwinkle pointed out the panic IS worse in some cases. The pictures of bare shelves is grossly out of proportion. A friend told me that the shelves were bare but then i went and only the Paper Towel aisle and Meat Cooler were impacted. That’s hardly what I consider ‘bare.’ Aside from that they had everything.

Are: Economy, I think it’s likely F*cked regardless. At least over the short term. I like MJ’s analogy if amputating an arm before things spread. Either we shut things down selectively or let the disease run it’s course where (aside from the more major issues) 70% of the population gets sick and will be out of work for weeks; while overwhelming the hospitals, or we shut thing down or purpose. Either way I think it’s a major hit. Yea it’s bad but it could be much worse. Right now at least many people can work from home. Amazon is kicking harder than ever, Skype use is at all-time high.

But overwhelming the hospitals means that if you break your bone or get an infection, doctors won’t be able to help you. Poisonings, drug overdoses, paramedics.. all on hold. Aside from the CV cases. That’s the BIGGEST concern and why were taking drastic action.

All we know is what happens when we don’t take action quick enough, which is what’s happening in italy. And the Italians DID take action, just not enough.

 

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[reedracer]

Holy fuk! Isn't their grocery delivery services down there? I've been ordering and shipping food and supplies to my house every other week.

This is a Costco. We went to ours yesterday to get a prescription and they have set up a flow. You go in where the carts/buggies are normally stacked. The main ingress doors are all blocked by pallets and carts.

On the way in signs and employees remind you about social distancing, products that they are out of. (Included Chicken and rice plus all the normal shortages.). The number of people allowed in the store is controlled by a counter.

At the door is rubber gloves, sanitary wipes, and such. An associate hands you a cart and off you go. People were pretty good at maintaining space once in.

To leave, you go out the usual door then exit through the alcove next to the Auto Center. I was impressed.

So if you are at home with high temperature, and you want to take something - use paracetamol, not ibuprofen.

paracetamol = acetaminophen in the U.S. (I keep track as I'm allergic to all NSAIDS and can only take acetaminophen for things like this).

 

[Ernman]

Well, it looks like we're finally starting to get an understanding of what the actual potential consequences of this virus might be if left unchecked.

Additionally, this gives us some insight into why the government has taken the steps that it has, and why we are suddenly feeling such a sense of urgency around this.

This analysis is somewhat sobering, but worth reading, especially for anyone who can't fathom why such extreme measures are needed to contain this thing.

It's about 20 posts... Worth reading to the end.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1239975682643357696

View: https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Thank you for sharing - definitely worth taking the time to read it through and think about what it is telling us.

 

[MTEE1985]

I can’t follow his thinking here.

My assumption is that the $100b drop in Tesla’s market cap over the last 2 weeks is clouding his thinking. As well as a general misunderstanding of what he is saying.

Plus they had finally reached critical mass after 15 years and officials just told him to close his factory. You know as an entrepreneur that’s driving him nuts. To Musk, money is not the issue but watching his baby and his 15 years of effort getting shut down is excruciating.

 

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[Ernman]

Russia deploying fake news is not something new, but doing it about the virus seems just downright evil

Russia deploying coronavirus disinformation to sow panic in West, EU document says

I'm not saying Putin is doing this, but if so - it would not surprise me.

 

[MoneyDoc]

My assumption is that the $100b drop in Tesla’s market cap over the last 2 weeks is clouding his thinking.

Plus initially the factory was going to remain open but officials just told him to close it. You know that’s driving him nuts after finally turning a corner with their production.

I disagree.

These guys have lost billions of dollars more than you and I will ever dream of making .

Panic makes every situation worse. It’s a novel virus. It’s supposed to spread. Following common sense and listening to EXPERTS is much better than fighting over toilet paper. Turn off the media, and rather than adding to the panic, think of solutions in which you can help.

I still stand by my original words: this is unnecessary panic. The technology, the health care advances we have in this day and age; we should be extremely grateful. Being in a third world country and dealing with an outbreak like this, should stir panic.

Turn off the unnecessary noise and do what entrepreneurs do best: solve problems.

 

[reedracer]

A reply from the Jeremy C. Young Imperial College thread.

 

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[Timmy C]

Well, it looks like we're finally starting to get an understanding of what the actual potential consequences of this virus might be if left unchecked.

Additionally, this gives us some insight into why the government has taken the steps that it has, and why we are suddenly feeling such a sense of urgency around this.

This analysis is somewhat sobering, but worth reading, especially for anyone who can't fathom why such extreme measures are needed to contain this thing.

It's about 20 posts... Worth reading to the end.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1239975682643357696

View: https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Up to page 8.....

Bought a tear to my eye.

Man....

Praying for all of us....

 

[MTEE1985]

I disagree.

These guys have lost billions of dollars more than you and I will ever dream losing .

Panic makes every situation worst. It’s a novel virus. It’s supposed to spread. Following common sense and listening to EXPERTS is much better than fighting over toilet paper. Turn off the media, and rather than adding to the panic, think of solutions in which you can help.

I still stand by my original words: this is unnecessary panic. The technology, the health care advances we have in this day and age; we should be extremely grateful. Being in a third world country and dealing with an outbreak like this, should stir panic.

Turn off the unnecessary noise and do what entrepreneurs do best: solve problems.

We’re on the same page. The problem as I’m reading it is when somebody like Musk says “don’t panic” it gets misinterpreted by the public as if he is saying “no big deal” when it’s not what he means.

Diligence is definitely needed, panic and hysteria is not.

 

[MoneyDoc]

We’re on the same page. The problem as I’m reading it is when somebody like Musk says “don’t panic” it gets misinterpreted by the public as if he is saying “no big deal” when it’s not what he means.

Diligence is definitely needed, panic and hysteria is not.

Agreed. At times like these, I can see why most of the public are not financial free. Even close family... their mentality is something else. It's unbelievable. It's sort of toxic.

 

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[Bekit]

Well, it looks like we're finally starting to get an understanding of what the actual potential consequences of this virus might be if left unchecked.

Additionally, this gives us some insight into why the government has taken the steps that it has, and why we are suddenly feeling such a sense of urgency around this.

This analysis is somewhat sobering, but worth reading, especially for anyone who can't fathom why such extreme measures are needed to contain this thing.

It's about 20 posts... Worth reading to the end.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1239975682643357696

View: https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

Excellent thread. Thanks for the share.

Here's the link to the Imperial College study that the data comes from.

We've been seeing all this stuff about "Flatten the curve" as if it looks like this:

But when you actually model it out, look where the Healthcare system capacity line ACTUALLY is (red horizontal line) compared to the various things we can do to flatten the curve.


In other words - even a combination of ALL mitigation measures will still exceed health care capacity.

From the paper (emphasis mine):

"The aim of mitigation is to reduce the impact of an epidemic by flattening the curve, reducing peak incidence and overall deaths (Figure 2). Since the aim of mitigation is to minimise mortality, the interventions need to remain in place for as much of the epidemic period as possible. Introducing such interventions too early risks allowing transmission to return once they are lifted (if insufficient herd immunity has developed); it is therefore necessary to balance the timing of introduction with the scale of disruption imposed and the likely period over which the interventions can be maintained. In this scenario, interventions can limit transmission to the extent that little herd immunity is acquired – leading to the possibility that a second wave of infection is seen once interventions are lifted.

[...]

Given that mitigation is unlikely to be a viable option without overwhelming healthcare systems, suppression is likely necessary in countries able to implement the intensive controls required. Our projections show that to be able to reduce R to close to 1 or below, a combination of case isolation, social distancing of the entire population and either household quarantine or school and university closure are required (Figure 3, Table 4).

[...]

The major challenge of suppression is that this type of intensive intervention package –
or something equivalently effective at reducing transmission – will need to be maintained until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more) – given that we predict that transmission will quickly rebound if interventions are relaxed."


After reading through the paper, here's my knee-jerk prediction about how this will play out.

After an initial halfhearted attempt at flattening the curve, Western nations will give up. "Mitigation doesn't work and suppression is too hard and people don't comply with it anyway."

So the virus will burn through the population and cause however many deaths it is going to cause.

Except that China will keep it suppressed. They've already shown that they can.

If it plays out like this, I see the following implications:

• Massive worldwide grief as people's hearts are broken when they lose multiple loved ones
• Obvious economic collapse as production drops to a fraction of the previous level (lost workers + bankrupt businesses + depressed or health-challenged survivors)
• Enormous national security risks as China sees an opportune time to covet American farmland

 

[GIlman]

Well, it looks like we're finally starting to get an understanding of what the actual potential consequences of this virus might be if left unchecked.

Additionally, this gives us some insight into why the government has taken the steps that it has, and why we are suddenly feeling such a sense of urgency around this.

This analysis is somewhat sobering, but worth reading, especially for anyone who can't fathom why such extreme measures are needed to contain this thing.

It's about 20 posts... Worth reading to the end.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1239975682643357696

View: https://twitter.com/jeremycyoung/status/1239975682643357696

This has been my concern for weeks, how do you come out of quarantine. The population remains vulnerable, the cycle can just repeat.

my concern was outlined about 1/2 back in this thread. I’m very concerned that the economic toll and isolationism from this lasts 1year plus and puts us into another depression. Not a recession, a full on depression. Like Dow going to 8-10K bad. Maybe worse. The government can’t save every business out there. They can’t inject unlimited cash they don’t have. At some point the dollar would get blown out and inflation would be insane. Stagflation at it’s worst.

but this isn’t about the money or economy to me. I have my family and that’s all that really matters to me. I pray my parents stay safe, I pray my 7 siblings and their children stay safe. I feel hopeful and upbeat that no matter where this goes, we will figure out how to move on.

here is my original post #1119

Ok, here is my own personal wild speculation....this is what at my core I feel Is gonna happen, could be totally wrong, but it’s my gut, so I’ll just share it.

This is obviously very wild speculation on my part which is totally different from my other posts where I have simply been trying to make sense of things that are known.

My bet is tonight (or in the very near future) that trump closes all boarders to the US and halts all or nearly all international flights.

Sometime in the not to distant future travel between states will be severely limited, and in all likelihood at some point either tonight or within the coming weeks all planes will be grounded.

We will see mass quarantines, that begin initially as recommendations, escalating to full scale military style quarantines.

I expect the hit to businesses will be massive from disruption of incoming supply chain, followed by lost wages, inability to buy, and restricted movement.

I feel there is significant probability that this is going to force us into a severe financial depression that lasts years. I expect this will be made even worse by the debt issues in the US government and lack of saving of the US population. Hopefully inflation doesn’t compound the problem.

Ultimately, as we recover I expect that means of production will come back into the US as people realize the risks of out sourcing everything and just in time inventory management.

National pride will predominate over one world order ideologies. There will be some very significant moves away from globalization, and many things like pharmaceuticals will be required by law to be made in the US.

This return of industry, and decreased globalization will ultimately lead the way to the return of prosperity and massive business opportunities.

I feel this cycle will take 10-15+ years to work it’s way through. History has a terrible way of repeating itself, because humans keep making the same mistakes.

So that’s my prognosis. Hopefully i am horribly wrong.