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It seems to me You are looking only at consumers and American markets. This is global, and the big waves will come from corporate holders, domestic and international.<br />
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Gold has a market cap of 9T, so BTC taking most of that pie seems highly likely to me.<br />
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Eclipsing it entirely also has a significant probability, imo.<br />
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Also, it seems that you may be thinking that 1.8T needs to actually be invested. Is that right?<br />
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if so, that’s a fallacy. There doesn’t need to be an injection of 1.8T to be worth 1.8T, just like you don’t need to put $100k into your house to see it appreciate 100k in value. The value goes up as demand far exceeds supply. If, tomorrow, every Fortune 500 company wanted to store 20M of their treasury in BTC, the demand would be huge and supply would be relatively low, so you’d see a disproportionate rise in price.<br />
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What am I missing? What do I have incorrect?
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</blockquote>While I like how you view the situation and I often forget to look at what you mentioned in your post. <br />
I look more at how different for example the US election could impact the bitcoin prices. I think it's important that we look at all facts. The current biggest, short-term impacts on bitcoin will be the US election 2020 and Covid. <br />
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Here my take on the short-term action we'll see in my mind.<br />
Honestly, I thought it will get uglier before the election. I'm a little disappointed with both parties. Since the first debate, it's more like any election, even Trump isn't Trump anymore. As seen in the last debate. <br />
A short look at the current numbers and it's pretty clear that it doesn't look good for Trump. I like to look at numbers from "The Economist" which isn't inherently left-wing or right-wing. They are considered as European center, which is a little left-wing in the US, but a find that they are quite neutral in the elections and political matters. <a href="https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president" target="_blank" class="link link--external" rel="noopener">President—Forecasting the US 2020 elections</a> Interesting to read and they give Trump around a 5% chance of winning. As I experienced 2020 I think everything is possible so I'm not 100% sure.<br />
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But here are my scenarios for the election and the impact on the bitcoin market:<br />
1. <b>Trump wins</b>: Protests, some riots, and the left-wing will try to start a movement. Potentially really bad for stock markets. This means it could be good for Gold and Bitcoin. Maybe the Democrats will try to delay the election and get Pelosi into the Whitehouse. Which would be a really mean but totally badass move. <br />
2. <b>Biden wins, but it's close</b>: Fox News and Trump will say it's rigged and try everything to change the results. Maybe they even have a chance with three supreme court judges nominated by Trump. Quite difficult to predict. But not knowing who won will definitely scare investors, that won't be good for the US Dollar and the US stock market. And could be good for other assets like Bitcoin, Gold, etc.<br />
3. <b>Biden wins, but by a lot</b>: I don't like this scenario when analyzing Bitcoin. Can imagine a peaceful transferal of power at the moment. But if the election is won by Biden with around 345 (Biden) vs 193 (Trump), which is the Forcast from the Economist right now, it could be difficult for Trump. Most republicans won't help Trump if they see him lose that big. And obviously some of his fans will make trouble, some shooting, some protests but not too much that will move markets. They will rather be bullish in such a scenario. But what will Trump to until January? Will he behave and do everything normal or will he try to do some stupid things? Hard to figure out but could potentially be pretty bad for all sides, stock markets, Bitcoin, gold, etc. It could have a really big bullish effect on Bitcoin and gold, but for that, he needs to do so much trouble that companies and people don't want to have USD and that's difficult in two months even for Trump. <br />
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So what will happen? It's so difficult, but I still believe Bitcoin will go up another 5k - 15k with only looking at fundamental aspects. <br />
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<b>What do you guys think? </b><br />
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Covid doesn't have a big direct effect on the markets right now. But through inflation it has. And that isn't looking good right now. <br />
<a href="https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/community/attachments/bildschirmfoto-2020-11-02-um-16-19-57-webp.35529/"
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But do people belive enough in Bitcoin that it could go to 100k? I really don't know. But I do.</div>
