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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Kasimir

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Great analysis! I think you're spot on with #2.. if it is anywhere near close, we might not know who the actual winner is for months after. Who knows how much unrest there will be during those waiting months... I can see Gold and Bitcoin being a good safe haven for govt. unstableness.
Thanks!
I totally agree on gold as usual in such scenarios gold will to well compared to others. But I’m not sure about bitcoins, yes in theory it should be similar to gold. But I’m just not 100% sure, yeah probably you’re right. Bitcoin is surly better then stocks at the moment, but still not convinced that it’s the best.
My problem is just we never had such an extreme situation before.
And nobody knows what is going to happen. Could be that everything ends peacefully or it could potentially end in the biggest crises ever.

Good input @GoodluckChuck totally forgot about Pelosi which could come into play when Trump wins. But petty sure that’s not going to happen.

My current prediction:
Biden wins the popular vote by around 58/42 or so. Trump will try everything to make a scandal and will try to go to the Supreme Court. If done successfully the democrats will try to get Pelosi in. Either way, it’s going to bell hell of a fight.
And it will be the best movie ever. Will be watching from a safe distance with some popcorn.
 
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Sethamus

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Playing around on Asset Correlations today and since Mar-Apr there has been a positive (.2+) correlation between total US markets, GLD, and crypto(used greyscale trust). Many factors are helping each rise together in the past 6 months, but would this not be an indicator that one or two of these is being lifted up artificially?

Still doing some research but;
1.My short term bet -Late 2020-2021 is gold and blockchain up.
2. I will definitely be in the market, but keeping majority of my buying power on the sideline after I took out my gains from September. I still believe this is where the correction will come.
3. Looking into companies that focus on cloud, AI, and implementation of blockchain for the next 10 years.
4. Record # of IPOs. Big hype and the average is up untypically their first year. This has me going back to #2 - a correction in this area and looking for opportunities from #3 for when this happens.
 

Kasimir

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After the debate of the vice president and the potential future vice president of the recent action in the last days, I think I need to amend my last statement. I really underestimated the democratic party. Yes, I thought that the Trump administration will have some tricks and try to do everything possible to remain in office. But the recent days taught me that both sides are dangerous at the moment.

In my mind, it's interesting to see that more and more investors are getting more comfortable with the idea that Biden could be the next president. Interesting to read on that topic: A Clear-Cut Biden Win Is Emerging as a Bull Case for Stocks

For the US markets, it will be of a huge benefit if there was a peaceful transfer of power. And if there was as little time of uncertainty of who the winner is as possible, no matter the winner. But I don't think that will happen.
Trump knows that he is behind atm. Yes, polls can be misleading or a little inaccurate but right now Trump doesn't have a chance. And he knows that. And he isn't willing to lose, and that makes him dangerous.
Even Fox News is saying that Trump is behind in polls and not by a little: Fox News Poll: Biden gains ground over Trump

What does Trump's poor handling of COVID in the Whitehouse tell us about COVID will be handled in the future?
For me, that was the last puzzle that made it clear that corona won't disappear on Trump's leadership. So there will be a vaccine needed. If a vaccine even gets an immunity of 70% around 90 to 95% of the people would need to take it that we reach herd immunity. With still a little of social distancing, masks in place and the already infected people, you'd still need around 70 to 80% of US citizens to take it. Which is difficult to archive. So in my mind, COVID won't just disappear at the current efforts made, at least in the US. If Biden's administration would do a better job can't be answered at the moment. Obviously they rather focus on handling COVID then pushing the economy, but it's difficult to predict how they will do with such a difficult challenge.


So it's still unchanged, Gold and Bitcoin will surely go up in Q4 2020 and probably also in Q1 2021. The only change is that in my mind now all parties are ready to do everything needed to win this election, doesn't matter the costs.

The recent bullish trend of Bitcoin has surely something to do with the election but rather with an investment of Square which transferred in 1% of there assets into bitcoins. Would love to see this happening more in the next few weeks, that would be a confirmation that big businesses are scared to have their assets in USD.
What's the opinion of you guys?

Just again glad that I'm not in the US. I couldn't support either candidate to 100%, but luckily I don't have to.
I'll just eat my popcorn and watch from a safe distance and hope for the best.
 

mguerra

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Hey brothers,

Nice to be back on this thread!

Like @JamesFend, I think there's a good upside and opportunities in crypto for the next 12 months and I'm watching closely from the sidelines.

I've lost some money on 2017 due some dumb decisions and arriving late to the party. This time I'm wiser and will jump in early.

Excited to share ideas here with my fellow fastalaners and hope to see many in this thread/forum progress together.

Let's get started!
 
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Donut

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I hold some three kinds of altcoin, currently it worth about 100K USD. I don't know the technology and philosophy behind it, but I do know it has bear and bull cycle just like the stock market and much shorter than that.

My core principle is this, if I am wrong I could afford to lose, but If I am right I will make a killing, 0 OR 100x .

Whether you call it a scam or not, think me a speculator or trader whatever I just want to make money

If I do succeed then I will just put that money into some high dividend stock and just build my money system.
Which 3 altcoins?
 

Sethamus

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Bitcoin in the news a lot today. Been tied up doing a refinance on my house so missed the ramp up the past weeks. Finishing it up so maybe when it bounces down from testing this high I can jump in - though later than I wanted.
 

mguerra

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Bitcoin in the news a lot today. Been tied up doing a refinance on my house so missed the ramp up the past weeks. Finishing it up so maybe when it bounces down from testing this high I can jump in - though later than I wanted.
How low do you estimate it will bounce?
 
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Timmy C

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I'm happy with my cryptocurrency positions and will no longer be adding any more until they moon or bust.

50/50 split between stocks and crypto ATM. I will be adding to ETFs for the next year.
 

Sethamus

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How low do you estimate it will bounce?
When a high is tested in the market, stocks/bitcoin whatever it can be down for a few hours. It really depends if you think the assets are going to continue to rise near term. When I figure out we are officially in a bull run in the stock market I will be putting money in like @Timmy C mentioned for 2021.

If you go back to the beginning of this thread and read the 2017 stuff (sort by best post to get the majority of it) crypto took much larger swings on it's way up. I'm hoping it still acts the same and gives me a better buy position.

Any input for me @James Fend ?
 
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mguerra

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What do you guys are thinking about the BTC scenario on the upcoming US ellection and in the next 6-12 months?

It's my belief that it will only go up from there on. I came to believe that based on my perceptions of where the world is going and some recent researches on Bitcoin and other financial assets.

Of course there will be corrections, high volatility and variations on the price - which brings huge and profitable opportunities for swing trades but I'm not really interested in that.

What I'm interested is securing my share of what I believe will be the asset of the next decade (wich is scarce and have limited supply).

I'm thinking about putting 30-50% of my networth there.

I can liquidate to fiat anytime I want. Unless it tanks to $0, which I think a 5-10% probability.

The reason Im doin'g this is because blockchain seems to be a better money system than fiat/stocks. With huge potential returns (3-20x) and limited loss.


Based on that, I have two questions to ask to my most experienced fellow Fastlaners in this particular area:

1. Can anyone show me any flaws in my thinking? What could go wrong that invalidates my belief and make it a bad move?
2. What BTC wallet do you guys recomend to use in 2020?

PS: Mind you I'm still hustling and working on my business. That will never stop. So, my plan is to continue feeding this "Money System" with my earnings for the next 2-3 years or so.

Thanks in advance for your answer, boys!
 

Kasimir

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What do you guys are thinking about the BTC scenario on the upcoming US ellection and in the next 6-12 months?

It's my belief that it will only go up from there on. I came to believe that based on my perceptions of where the world is going and some recent researches on Bitcoin and other financial assets.

Of course there will be corrections, high volatility and variations on the price - which brings huge and profitable opportunities for swing trades but I'm not really interested in that.

What I'm interested is securing my share of what I believe will be the asset of the next decade (wich is scarce and have limited supply).

I'm thinking about putting 30-50% of my networth there.

I can liquidate to fiat anytime I want. Unless it tanks to $0, which I think a 5-10% probability.

The reason Im doin'g this is because blockchain seems to be a better money system than fiat/stocks. With huge potential returns (3-20x) and limited loss.


Based on that, I have two questions to ask to my most experienced fellow Fastlaners in this particular area:

1. Can anyone show me any flaws in my thinking? What could go wrong that invalidates my belief and make it a bad move?
2. What BTC wallet do you guys recomend to use in 2020?

PS: Mind you I'm still hustling and working on my business. That will never stop. So, my plan is to continue feeding this "Money System" with my earnings for the next 2-3 years or so.

Thanks in advance for your answer, boys!
Sounds like an interesting move. At first sight I can’t see any big flaws in your method. I like looking into and finding the the source which would support my theory. I’m thinking about doing a move too. Either putting more in or getting some out which I invested at 8.8k.
Not sure what I’ll do. But probably decide today or tomorrow. Will inform you and tell you what my exact opinion is. Cheers
 

Andreas Thiel

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What do you guys are thinking about the BTC scenario on the upcoming US ellection and in the next 6-12 months?

It's my belief that it will only go up from there on. I came to believe that based on my perceptions of where the world is going and some recent researches on Bitcoin and other financial assets.

Of course there will be corrections, high volatility and variations on the price - which brings huge and profitable opportunities for swing trades but I'm not really interested in that.

What I'm interested is securing my share of what I believe will be the asset of the next decade (wich is scarce and have limited supply).

I'm thinking about putting 30-50% of my networth there.

I can liquidate to fiat anytime I want. Unless it tanks to $0, which I think a 5-10% probability.

The reason Im doin'g this is because blockchain seems to be a better money system than fiat/stocks. With huge potential returns (3-20x) and limited loss.


Based on that, I have two questions to ask to my most experienced fellow Fastlaners in this particular area:

1. Can anyone show me any flaws in my thinking? What could go wrong that invalidates my belief and make it a bad move?
2. What BTC wallet do you guys recomend to use in 2020?

PS: Mind you I'm still hustling and working on my business. That will never stop. So, my plan is to continue feeding this "Money System" with my earnings for the next 2-3 years or so.

Thanks in advance for your answer, boys!
You write that you can liquidate to fiat anytime ... but how well are you prepared for a 40%, 60% or 80% loss when you do it?

A bear case could look like this:

We have seen that Bitcoin gets sold when cash is needed. Another credit crunch is extremely likely. Mining Bitcoin is expensive and the halvings create a need for higher prices. What happens when prices go down and miners start throwing in the towel? That could potentially be the end of Bitcoin (which could mean: Bitcoin hovering around $6000 with extremely low trading volume).

Investors need to embrace Bitcoin as one of the best investments for the bull case. Money that is now in Gold, Bonds, equity etc. has to be moved into Bitcoin. I think this could turn into a competition with a winner takes all dynamic. And the value of equity is just more easily understood ... so I think this (probably big tech stocks mostly) is the competitor to look out for. Why else would the Nasdaq be where it is now? When Bitcoin is cheap and equity as well ... what will most people buy?

You could start at 10% of your networth ... and not increase that until you see signs of significant inflows compared to equity.
 
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mguerra

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You write that you can liquidate to fiat anytime ... but how well are you prepared for a 40%, 60% or 80% loss when you do it?

A bear case could look like this:

We have seen that Bitcoin gets sold when cash is needed. Another credit crunch is extremely likely. Mining Bitcoin is expensive and the halvings create a need for higher prices. What happens when prices go down and miners start throwing in the towel? That could potentially be the end of Bitcoin (which could mean: Bitcoin hovering around $6000 with extremely low trading volume).

Investors need to embrace Bitcoin as one of the best investments for the bull case. Money that is now in Gold, Bonds, equity etc. has to be moved into Bitcoin. I think this could turn into a competition with a winner takes all dynamic. And the value of equity is just more easily understood ... so I think this (probably big tech stocks mostly) is the competitor to look out for. Why else would the Nasdaq be where it is now? When Bitcoin is cheap and equity as well ... what will most people buy?

You could start at 10% of your networth ... and not increase that until you see signs of significant inflows compared to equity.

Thanks for your response, brother.

Answering to your question: I'm putting money that I am "okay" with losing, so any potential losses of 60-80% would be swallowed and I would learn a lesson.

But as I'm planning to have the other 50% of my networth in fiat, hopefully I wouldn't have to liquidate the loss in case of a temporary crash in prices.

Now if BTC comes to an end, like in the scenario you articulated, I'd be with my eyes on the market to jump out before the train falls off the cliff.

My plan is to take profits regularly (on the bulls) so I can compensate for that.

BTW... What do you think is most likely to happen in a near future? Mass adoption of BTC/other cryptos or BTC coming to an end?

I think that all this news about big banks and big companies signing contracts with blockchain technologies may be a indicator that this is the future.
 

Andreas Thiel

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Thanks for your response, brother.

Answering to your question: I'm putting money that I am "okay" with losing, so any potential losses of 60-80% would be swallowed and I would learn a lesson.

But as I'm planning to have the other 50% of my networth in fiat, hopefully I wouldn't have to liquidate the loss in case of a temporary crash in prices.

Now if BTC comes to an end, like in the scenario you articulated, I'd be with my eyes on the market to jump out before the train falls off the cliff.

My plan is to take profits regularly (on the bulls) so I can compensate for that.

BTW... What do you think is most likely to happen in a near future? Mass adoption of BTC/other cryptos or BTC coming to an end?

I think that all this news about big banks and big companies signing contracts with blockchain technologies may be a indicator that this is the future.
Difficult to say. I think mass adoption of Bitcoin as a currency was never likely. It can store value well ... like gold.
So I'd ignore when PayPal allows people to pay with Bitcoin and listen when big investors put money in Bitcoin and hodl.

I do like the odds of Bitcoin as a store of value and Ethereum from the technological standpoint (and maybe Ether as a currency - because it is not designed to store value via its stock-to-flow ratio plans).

Bitcoin and Ethereum have serious communities behind it ... some other coins go for the more professional looking / polished brand, but I don't think that is a winning strategy.

But when it comes to the math as an investment vehicle ... I become careful.
Imagine you put $1000 dollar in and you have a 50% chance of it going to $5000 and a 50% chance of it going to zero ... then it is an okay speculation option but no reasonable investment. I am not convinced that the odds are much better than 50%. It is up to very few big players if Bitcoin succeeds or not. There might already be a plan in place - it could all be rigged. That is why I personally have less than 10% in Bitcoin and Ether right now. I also regularly check DeFi Pulse | The DeFi Leaderboard | Stats, Charts and Guides to see how the "value locked in defi" develops over time. I might become more aggressive, but new input must trigger such a shift.
 

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Hey Fastlaners,
As Bitcoin is slowly becoming the real deal. I wanted to give Bitcoin it's own thread containing just long-term & short-term predictions & any big crypto news to help any others who's trading, hodling, etc. a place to throw in your predictions & any actions you plan on taking.

I see the current stage of Bitcoin & crypto as the new Napster & Limewire. Industry bigs (middle-men) will do all they can to fight it & shut it down, but they will soon find out - You can't beat the under-lying ideals & world-changing tech. It will carry on & win out in other forms because the market has experienced the benefits and the market always wins (it will even beat out government regulations).

Bitcoin is in the experienced the benefits stage. As more and more adopt to use Bitcoin as a form of payment (even if the sellers offering to take Btc as payment are valuing on speculative price/trading); the fact remains: They are still using Bitcoin as currency. It is being used as the real deal of exchange between goods & money.

Predictions Nov 8, 2017:
A fork titled B2X was recently cancelled (or "suspended") by their own backers & creators. This is going to give Btc a big bull-run for the next week or so to ~$9,000.

Once it hits this; if the bull-run slows down; a market correction drop of ~20-30% will hit around early or mid December. This will be a short-lived correction though as many are waiting on the sideline (who haven't jumped in the game) for this drop to happen and ready to buy into Bitcoin.

With or without this market correction happening; I strongly believe Btc will at least flirt with $10k before the year is over with.

My actions: I am going to Hodl until I see about a ~15% drop then going to sell half of my coins to later re-buy in once it begins climbing back from the drop. Then Hodl, Hodl, Hodl.
$20,000 again end of 2020 or early 2021 . $50,000 to $100,000 in 3-10 years . I might be low balling .
 

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The logic behind investing in crypto as a non-gambler is this, put a small amount of your reserves, say 3% in btc. the likelihood of it going 10x are very likely, the other likely option is for whatever reason you lose all your money. Well if the 3% goes 10x, that is a 30% gain which is crazy, if you lose it, you lose only 3% which is not even noticable.

This is what Square are doing by putting 1% of their reserves in crypto. I think the trend will only get bigger as other assets start to get over-inflated and people realise that crypto didnt go to zero after the last crash, you now how banks etc who called it a scam now taking positions and seriously talking about it. I used to work as a stock broker and I follow alot of the finance meme pages etc, even traditional finance people are starting to see it as something to speculate on.
 

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The logic behind investing in crypto as a non-gambler is this, put a small amount of your reserves, say 3% in btc. the likelihood of it going 10x are very likely, the other likely option is for whatever reason you lose all your money. Well if the 3% goes 10x, that is a 30% gain which is crazy, if you lose it, you lose only 3% which is not even noticable.

This is what Square are doing by putting 1% of their reserves in crypto. I think the trend will only get bigger as other assets start to get over-inflated and people realise that crypto didnt go to zero after the last crash, you now how banks etc who called it a scam now taking positions and seriously talking about it. I used to work as a stock broker and I follow alot of the finance meme pages etc, even traditional finance people are starting to see it as something to speculate on.

I'm more like Saylor than Jack. I have over 70% of my investments in BTC, and I'm a non-gambler. To me, the EV is much too high on Bitcoin to be bashful.
 
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But when it comes to the math as an investment vehicle ... I become careful.
Imagine you put $1000 dollar in and you have a 50% chance of it going to $5000 and a 50% chance of it going to zero ... then it is an okay speculation option but no reasonable investment. I am not convinced that the odds are much better than 50%. It is up to very few big players if Bitcoin succeeds or not. There might already be a plan in place - it could all be rigged. That is why I personally have less than 10% in Bitcoin and Ether right now. I also regularly check DeFi Pulse | The DeFi Leaderboard | Stats, Charts and Guides to see how the "value locked in defi" develops over time. I might become more aggressive, but new input must trigger such a shift.

I am a super BTC bull, so what will follow is clearly biased by my beliefs.

First, I don't think your probability estimates are correct. AT this point, BTC has less than a 1% chance of going to 0.

Even if it loses 90% of it's value by some circumstance I can't foresee, it has proven itself as a valuable store of value and medium of exchange for the unbanked, even if that only includes criminals.

With that in mind, I see a the probability of BTC going to 0 of being neglegable.

On the flipside, the probability of BTC going to 100k, 500k, or even 1M per coin is significant. At the time of this writing where BTC is ~14k, 100k would be <700% gain; 1M would be 7000% gain. My gut tells me the probability of BTC going to 100k or beyond is well beyond 50% over the next 30 years.

I won't pretend to predict the drivers of that, but these facts convince me that we are barely in the first inning of BTC's reign as a global currency:

  • Even though BTC at scale is costly in terms of energy output, it's still vastly more efficient than our current financial system. The current financial system requires significant computing power for all the "unhackable" data centers, and a lot of wasted human effort in fraud prevention, cyber security, government oversight and banking staff, amongst other inefficiencies. More efficient technologies will always win, assuming a critical mass is reached, because saving human labor is what opens up humans to pursue other, more meaningful endeavors. Keeping track of what money should be in what account is not a good use of human intelligence.
  • BTC has had 12 years to prove itself as a store of value, and the adoption as such is only increasing. I believe the next domino to fall to bring us to 50k or even 100k will be corporate treasuries. Corps with 500M+ in cash reserves (e.g. Microsystems + Square) are protecting their cash by putting their corporate treasury into Bitcoin. This is significant, and I could likely write an entire 2000+ word post on why this will bring us to 50k or 100k/coin within the next few years.
  • The narrative is already starting that you are insane to not own bitcoin among incredibly smart people. This narrative gets stronger and stronger every year.
  • There are only 21M BTC that will ever exist. If all 7.8B humans had a "fair share" they would have 0.0027 bitcoin each. But more companies are gobbling up the BTC for their treasury, which decreases the available supply and drives up value. This is where we see BTC exceed 100k in value, IMO. If you have 10 or even 1 bitcoin now, you stand to be a great position within 10-20 years...or much sooner.
I don't tread lightly into BTC, personally. I know it's not the conventional wisdom of "diversifying your portfolio". I don't care about diversity. I care about being where I believe where the puck is going.

I'd rather be wrong and lose significantly than be right and not have followed my gut with massive action.

And when I evaluate the probabilities as I can best guess them, the EV on a $1 bet on Bitcoin is anywhere from $6 to $100.

If you believe that, too, I wouldn't tread lightly, either.
 
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mguerra

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I don't tread lightly into BTC, personally. I know it's not the conventional wisdom of "diversifying your portfolio". I don't care about diversity. I care about being where I believe where the puck is going.

I'd rather be wrong and lose significantly than be right and not have followed my gut with massive action.

Same here.

Thanks for you post brother.

Ps: How are you storing your BTCs? Any recommendations of a specific wallet?
 

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Same here.

Thanks for you post brother.

Ps: How are you storing your BTCs? Any recommendations of a specific wallet?
I have three Ledger Nano S devices that I use as cold storage, stored in a physical safe. The keys are storein three other locations, away from the wallets themselves. That’s for my long term HODLs.

I also have some play money “invested” in bitcoin on Robinhood, just for the ease and speed of trading without fees if I want to do some fun swing trades.

I also do weekly buys on coinbase that I transfer to cold storage about once a year.

The vast majority of my BTC is in that cold storage from when I bought it a few years ago, though.
 
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I have three Ledger Nano S devices that I use as cold storage, stored in a physical safe. The keys are storein three other locations, away from the wallets themselves. That’s for my long term HODLs.

I also have some play money “invested” in bitcoin on Robinhood, just for the ease and speed of trading without fees if I want to do some fun swing trades.

I also do weekly buys on coinbase that I transfer to cold storage about once a year.

The vast majority of my BTC is in that cold storage from when I bought it a few years ago, though.
Lol. I have visions of dry ice coming out of vaults. I’ve no clue about crypto, and knowing my obsessive-compulsive nature I’ll probably keep it that way. Good luck though, and thanks for bringing a bit of sci-fi to my Sunday afternoon!
 

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Lol. I have visions of dry ice coming out of vaults. I’ve no clue about crypto, and knowing my obsessive-compulsive nature I’ll probably keep it that way. Good luck though, and thanks for bringing a bit of sci-fi to my Sunday afternoon!
Just open a coinbase account and buy some. It’s easier than a bank account and I’m pretty sure it’s available in Ireland :)
 

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Not sure about the optimism regarding Bitcoin reaching 100k. Currently the market cap is at ... Google says roughly 200 billion U.S. dollars. So you think an inflow of 1,8 trillion is likely? Personal savings in the U.S. were around 1.3 trillion in 2019? Sure, there were 6.18 trillion in ETFs in 2018 I think ... so it can happen, but I think there will be a showdown between different asset classes and if most investors are careful, then reaching 100k will be difficult. Momentum will play an enormous role in that race. And many people are going to bet that big tech will profit from the crisis in some way ... and many people consider investing in real estate as well.
 
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csalvato

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Not sure about the optimism regarding Bitcoin reaching 100k. Currently the market cap is at ... Google says roughly 200 billion U.S. dollars. So you think an inflow of 1,8 trillion is likely? Personal savings in the U.S. were around 1.3 trillion in 2019? Sure, there were 6.18 trillion in ETFs in 2018 I think ... so it can happen, but I think there will be a showdown between different asset classes and if most investors are careful, then reaching 100k will be difficult. Momentum will play an enormous role in that race. And many people are going to bet that big tech will profit from the crisis in some way ... and many people consider investing in real estate as well.
It seems to me You are looking only at consumers and American markets. This is global, and the big waves will come from corporate holders, domestic and international.

Gold has a market cap of 9T, so BTC taking most of that pie seems highly likely to me.

Eclipsing it entirely also has a significant probability, imo.

Also, it seems that you may be thinking that 1.8T needs to actually be invested. Is that right?

if so, that’s a fallacy. There doesn’t need to be an injection of 1.8T to be worth 1.8T, just like you don’t need to put $100k into your house to see it appreciate 100k in value. The value goes up as demand far exceeds supply. If, tomorrow, every Fortune 500 company wanted to store 20M of their treasury in BTC, the demand would be huge and supply would be relatively low, so you’d see a disproportionate rise in price.

What am I missing? What do I have incorrect?
 
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Kasimir

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It seems to me You are looking only at consumers and American markets. This is global, and the big waves will come from corporate holders, domestic and international.

Gold has a market cap of 9T, so BTC taking most of that pie seems highly likely to me.

Eclipsing it entirely also has a significant probability, imo.

Also, it seems that you may be thinking that 1.8T needs to actually be invested. Is that right?

if so, that’s a fallacy. There doesn’t need to be an injection of 1.8T to be worth 1.8T, just like you don’t need to put $100k into your house to see it appreciate 100k in value. The value goes up as demand far exceeds supply. If, tomorrow, every Fortune 500 company wanted to store 20M of their treasury in BTC, the demand would be huge and supply would be relatively low, so you’d see a disproportionate rise in price.

What am I missing? What do I have incorrect?
While I like how you view the situation and I often forget to look at what you mentioned in your post.
I look more at how different for example the US election could impact the bitcoin prices. I think it's important that we look at all facts. The current biggest, short-term impacts on bitcoin will be the US election 2020 and Covid.

Here my take on the short-term action we'll see in my mind.
Honestly, I thought it will get uglier before the election. I'm a little disappointed with both parties. Since the first debate, it's more like any election, even Trump isn't Trump anymore. As seen in the last debate.
A short look at the current numbers and it's pretty clear that it doesn't look good for Trump. I like to look at numbers from "The Economist" which isn't inherently left-wing or right-wing. They are considered as European center, which is a little left-wing in the US, but a find that they are quite neutral in the elections and political matters. President—Forecasting the US 2020 elections Interesting to read and they give Trump around a 5% chance of winning. As I experienced 2020 I think everything is possible so I'm not 100% sure.

But here are my scenarios for the election and the impact on the bitcoin market:
1. Trump wins: Protests, some riots, and the left-wing will try to start a movement. Potentially really bad for stock markets. This means it could be good for Gold and Bitcoin. Maybe the Democrats will try to delay the election and get Pelosi into the Whitehouse. Which would be a really mean but totally badass move.
2. Biden wins, but it's close: Fox News and Trump will say it's rigged and try everything to change the results. Maybe they even have a chance with three supreme court judges nominated by Trump. Quite difficult to predict. But not knowing who won will definitely scare investors, that won't be good for the US Dollar and the US stock market. And could be good for other assets like Bitcoin, Gold, etc.
3. Biden wins, but by a lot: I don't like this scenario when analyzing Bitcoin. Can imagine a peaceful transferal of power at the moment. But if the election is won by Biden with around 345 (Biden) vs 193 (Trump), which is the Forcast from the Economist right now, it could be difficult for Trump. Most republicans won't help Trump if they see him lose that big. And obviously some of his fans will make trouble, some shooting, some protests but not too much that will move markets. They will rather be bullish in such a scenario. But what will Trump to until January? Will he behave and do everything normal or will he try to do some stupid things? Hard to figure out but could potentially be pretty bad for all sides, stock markets, Bitcoin, gold, etc. It could have a really big bullish effect on Bitcoin and gold, but for that, he needs to do so much trouble that companies and people don't want to have USD and that's difficult in two months even for Trump.

So what will happen? It's so difficult, but I still believe Bitcoin will go up another 5k - 15k with only looking at fundamental aspects.

What do you guys think?

Covid doesn't have a big direct effect on the markets right now. But through inflation it has. And that isn't looking good right now.
Bildschirmfoto 2020-11-02 um 16.19.57.png
But do people belive enough in Bitcoin that it could go to 100k? I really don't know. But I do.
 

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It seems to me You are looking only at consumers and American markets. This is global, and the big waves will come from corporate holders, domestic and international.

Gold has a market cap of 9T, so BTC taking most of that pie seems highly likely to me.

Eclipsing it entirely also has a significant probability, imo.

Also, it seems that you may be thinking that 1.8T needs to actually be invested. Is that right?

if so, that’s a fallacy. There doesn’t need to be an injection of 1.8T to be worth 1.8T, just like you don’t need to put $100k into your house to see it appreciate 100k in value. The value goes up as demand far exceeds supply. If, tomorrow, every Fortune 500 company wanted to store 20M of their treasury in BTC, the demand would be huge and supply would be relatively low, so you’d see a disproportionate rise in price.

What am I missing? What do I have incorrect?
I do not see a reason to get out of Gold. Bitcoin needs momentum for a shift from Gold. Or is there another reason?

You might be right about the price. I have read about the stock-to-flow ratio ... but not about the machanism behind how the price develops. Is there a scenario where "only" 300 billion additional dollars go towards Bitcoin ... and the price goes to 100k? If that is a likely development, than yes ... that would significantly change how I feel about the odds.
 
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csalvato

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I do not see a reason to get out of Gold. Bitcoin needs momentum for a shift from Gold. Or is there another reason?

You might be right about the price. I have read about the stock-to-flow ratio ... but not about the machanism behind how the price develops. Is there a scenario where "only" 300 billion additional dollars go towards Bitcoin ... and the price goes to 100k? If that is a likely development, than yes ... that would significantly change how I feel about the odds.
Hm i may be wrong, but it seems we are both thinking on different time scales (as the post from @Kasimir highlights, where he discusses short term prices).

As a buy and hold investor, I am thinking very long term.I purchased several years ago and don't intend to sell for 20-30 more years.
 

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But here are my scenarios for the election and the impact on the bitcoin market:
1. Trump wins: Protests, some riots, and the left-wing will try to start a movement. Potentially really bad for stock markets. This means it could be good for Gold and Bitcoin. Maybe the Democrats will try to delay the election and get Pelosi into the Whitehouse. Which would be a really mean but totally badass move.
2. Biden wins, but it's close: Fox News and Trump will say it's rigged and try everything to change the results. Maybe they even have a chance with three supreme court judges nominated by Trump. Quite difficult to predict. But not knowing who won will definitely scare investors, that won't be good for the US Dollar and the US stock market. And could be good for other assets like Bitcoin, Gold, etc.
3. Biden wins, but by a lot: I don't like this scenario when analyzing Bitcoin. Can imagine a peaceful transferal of power at the moment. But if the election is won by Biden with around 345 (Biden) vs 193 (Trump), which is the Forcast from the Economist right now, it could be difficult for Trump. Most republicans won't help Trump if they see him lose that big. And obviously some of his fans will make trouble, some shooting, some protests but not too much that will move markets. They will rather be bullish in such a scenario. But what will Trump to until January? Will he behave and do everything normal or will he try to do some stupid things? Hard to figure out but could potentially be pretty bad for all sides, stock markets, Bitcoin, gold, etc. It could have a really big bullish effect on Bitcoin and gold, but for that, he needs to do so much trouble that companies and people don't want to have USD and that's difficult in two months even for Trump.
I'm not huge on day trading, swing trading, weekly trading, etc. Whenever I've tried to do it, I suck at it. I've come to learn that my strength is in recognizing longer term trends that will maturate over 10-15 years or more. My weakness is timing local tops and bottoms.

In any of these three scenarios, when I look over the next 4 years of the presidency of the winner, there are significant economic challenges that will really put pressure on breaking the USD as the global reserve/sovereign currency.

If Trump wins, he will continue to blindly pump the stock market, despite the economy unraveling under the surface. If Biden wins, expect socialism to kill innovation and drive out entrepreneurs, classic Atlas Shrugged style.

In both situations, expect much more money printing, as this seems to be the de facto method of solving problems these days.

So when I consider BTC vs. DXY over the next 4 years, DXY doesn't really stand a chance, from what I can see. I don't have a crystal ball though, so let me know if you think I'm missing something significant.
 

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