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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Discussion in 'Investing/Trading/Cryptocurrency/Altcoins' started by James Fend, Nov 8, 2017.

  1. nitrousflame
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    nitrousflame Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    IMO, I think it's all a matter of time horizons. In the short term (weeks/months) I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to ~$6k and then back to ~$3k or slightly lower at some point, briefly. If your time horizon is more on the order of several months to years, then anywhere in that range would be a pretty decent entry I think.

    @Roli I'm curious to hear more about your theory. I too have a theory, though it's nothing really unique. Basically, I think much of this latest spike can be attributed to a short squeeze resulting in the liquidation and covering of said shorts, which of course then pushes the price even higher. Yet even so, the price has managed to push past the 200 daily average, but stopped just shy of the 200 monthly average... If the price closes/holds above the 200 monthly average, then perhaps we're in for another move higher and/or will begin to establish a longer term upward trend.

    DISCLAIMER: I do not trade BTC/crypto with short time horizons (e.g. day trading) so I probably don't know what I'm talking about. That said, I am still very much bullish with longer time frames and have started accumulating over the last few months again.
     
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  2. Seniorpreneur
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    Seniorpreneur New Contributor

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    Hi James! I made some money on the long upside that Bitcoin had last year. Today It SEEMS that Bitcoin has found a bottom and is slowing making it's way to the $5,000 USD level. I'm still not buying more BTC yet. Do you think that previous investors will sellout as soon as the BTC price reaches their own break even point? What do you think?
     
  3. Roli
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    Roli Gold Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED Speedway Pass

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    Okay, well this theory first came about from when they opened up the CME long/short mechanism. At the time I predicted it would be bad for Bitcoin, because ultimately there was a lot of negative press coming from the bankers. Even Goldman Sucks which went from completely deriding it, to opening up a small fund for their clients.

    So I predicted that when they entered the market they would find a way to screw everyone over, because they ultimately see crypto as a threat, and they control the money and they don't want to lose that control.

    My theory is that the banks are buying shed loads of btc and then shorting it (if this is illegal, they are finding ways round that illegality), then when the right time comes they dump their coin crashing the price and thus cashing in on their short.

    This is not as risky a strategy as it sounds because of the nature of the btc market.

    What is the overall theory of btc holders?

    HODL!

    Unlike other financial markets crypto heads talk about holding their assets regardless of what happens in the market.

    Also unlike other markets it is very difficult to sell large amounts of btc without moving the price. For example if I wanted to sell a million dollars worth of Chrysler shares nobody but me and my broker would notice. However if I tried to sell a million dollars worth of btc all at once I could single handedly cause a price fluctuation just by dumping it on Kraken or one of the smaller exchanges.

    So even though the market cap of btc is pretty large, the active players in the market are small, I believe Kraken and Coinbase are the largest exchanges and their 24 hour volumes can be measured in the thousands.

    So yeah, the banks are freaked out about btc and at first they tried to ridicule it, then they joined the party and now they're ruining it.

    With all that being said, there's still plenty of room for day/week traders to make some money, however for long term investment I think it sucks.

    The money will be in the BaaS (blockchain as a service) coins, in particular I'm keeping tabs on EOS as they seem to have a good handle on blockchain speeds and implementing games onto the chain.

    Steem (which I'm invested in) could also be good, its flagship dapp Steemit is kind of dying now, however they have the two top blockchain games in Steem Monsters and Drugwars.

    Dan Larimer (creator of Steem and EOS) announced the other day that he was going to create Steemit 2.0 on the EOS chain. I have a feeling that it will be bigger, better and shinier than his first attempt and there will be more social features to boot.

    At the moment I use btc as a temporary place holder as I buy and sell other cryptos...

    I hope I'm wrong about bitcoin, and if it goes past the $9000 mark and stabilises somewhere around the $10k mark then I'll admit my theory is wrong. If however I see it continually bounce between about $3k and $8k I'll believe I'm right.

    DISCLAIMER: Even though it sounds like it above, I am not a conspiracy theorist, I don't believe in the Deep State, alien pyramids, or that 9/11 was an inside job. :p:clench:
     
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  4. chuckypita
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    chuckypita Bronze Contributor

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    Buy GOLD. Tangible.... real.... GOLD.
     
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  5. nitrousflame
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    nitrousflame Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Thanks for putting your theory out there.

    The main thing that sticks out for me, and really ties it all together, is the market cap and the misconceptions surrounding it. I used to think that in order for the market cap to increase by one million dollars, that one million new, additional dollars had to enter the market. It seems that this line of thinking is rather common as well. However, this is akin to assuming no friction when running a physics calculation, except in this case, the "friction" is liquidity. When liquidity is low, a $1M injection (or withdrawal) from the market may end up moving the market by far, far more than $1M.
     
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  6. James Fend
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    James Fend Gold Contributor FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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  7. broswoodwork
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    broswoodwork Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED

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    Oof....

    Wish I didn't even find this thread, to be honest. I only pop in a few times a year, and I was out building my small boring irrelevant business during the crypto bull run.

    There's a lot of big names in here. People who's advice, unbeknownst to them, has been critical in me starting my journey. I hope I don't get blasted by too many of them (but I probably will)...

    Before anyone says, "hindsight is 20/20", I could've bought into btc at under $100, but passed because beneath the smokescreen of "future world reserve currency", new paradigm, only 21million, etc, etc it was a digital hashmark, devoid of use or intrinsic value, that nobody aside from drug dealers would accept as an exchange of value, and even they wouldn't take it at the rates people were buying in for.

    I couldn't afford to gamble, and I dislike gambling in general. Yes, people will say I could've cashed out for $2million at the all time high, but if I bought, I would've been fully cashed out incrementally by $700.

    To the point, alot of young impressionable people pass through here looking to get ahead in life, and when they see legendary contributors zealously advocating what amounts to a hot new black jack strategy, they may do ridiculous things, like get a second mortgage to buy hadhmarks or what have you.

    I understand most of the people contributing here have a lot more to play than I probably ever will; thus, never gamble what you can't afford to lose holds true, but what about the kids who's understanding of the principles laid down in the books are little less firm and shouldn't be gambling anything?

    I don't know... I'm ready to be called an idiot and a**hole (possibly banned). I can take it.

    Btw. @lewj24 deserves a special badge of some variety next to his name, because I wasn't seeing anyone else advancing the Greater Fool argument.
     
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  8. Adams Baker
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    Adams Baker New Contributor

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    When I was new to Forex market I also had the various question about cryptocurrency and trading in my mind. I asked to several individuals about this and one of the experienced traders recommended me Volume FX because they provide free training and support to the ones who are new to Forex and Crypto trading. I got training from Volume and now I able to trade confidently and successfully. So, from my experience with Volume I suggest you to checkout volumefx.com once.
     
  9. FE13
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    I believe in Bitcoin.
    I have been in BTC for about 5 years but I have never had a whole lot. I have sold some a couple of times but not life changing amounts. The last time I sold some it was for about twice the current price.

    I still have more than I have never sold and am not selling. I think of it as a once in a lifetime opportunity to hold some lottery tickets with very good odds.
    If the pattern of pumps continues just one more time it would be life changing and I'm not sure what I will do but likely something to set myself up for the future.

    If I sold them I could probably never afford to buy them back so I am not selling my lottery tickets for 5 figures.
    I have held from $600 to $200 to $20,000 to $3200 and now back to $5,000..
    Maybe I will sell when they are 6 figures each.. $100k to $300k ish

    I made them all trading, started from $5, but trading isn't what it used to be so now I just hold..
    I am not a coder but I know quite a lot about crypto and crypto trading and have experienced some amazing history in the crypto world.

    I have bought and sold countless DOGE when it first pumped. I've owned darkcoin/dash when it was brand new, etherium when it was new, and have seen so many rise and fall. I have probably owned over 100 different cryptos at one point in time.

    I have spent thousands of hours on exchanges and have been there to witness in person amazing pumps, amazing dumps, great successes, and massive scams.
    I was trading XPY live when garza put up the $20 "floor". I saw that.
    I made great %s on AUR.
    I have lost coin to exchange hacks and have taken advantage of extremely risky arbitrage on collapsing exchanges.

    It's been a long strange trip.
     
    Last edited: Apr 12, 2019
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  10. Dmoneyzzz
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    Dmoneyzzz Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane

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    I bought early, I sold into speculation and made profit.
    I bought into speculation, sold during a panic and lost a lot of money.

    I realized that I am not a good trader and I suffer being a long term investor especially with crypto because I don't really know if I can call it "investing". Also relates to "nothing backing up" the cryptocurrencies.

    Nonetheless, I am out of the crypto game but I wish you all the best of luck reaping in the profits you deem fit from your understanding!
     
  11. Adams Baker
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    gud
     
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  12. Vigilante
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    Vigilante Legendary Contributor Staff Member Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass LEGENDARY CONTRIBUTOR Summit Attendee

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    Hackers stole $41M of bitcoin on one of world’s largest crypto exchanges
     
  13. James Fend
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    James Fend Gold Contributor FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Crazy news.. Maybe we are on the wrong side of the fence?!? It'd be much more Fastlane to focus on hacking while security is still pre-mature and vulnerable in this space LOL

    ...And then its followed by a small push to break the $6,000 resistance price.. What a weird funny game lol. Whether it proves it can test and stay above $6,000, I'm not too sure of.
     
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  14. nitrousflame
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    nitrousflame Bronze Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    I'm not so sure I'd call hacking fastlane, unless perhaps it's some form of "white hat" service that helps protect said vulnerable funds rather than stealing them outright!

    That said, I find it rather telling that last week we had news of the big USD "stable coin" Tether being only 74% backed, and now Binance was hacked for 7000 BTC, and yet the market is just absorbing it like nothing happened.
     
  15. Timmy C
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    Timmy C I Will Not Stop! Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED FASTLANE INSIDER Speedway Pass

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    Good time to buy crypto. Basically any time this year is good to buy.
     
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  16. lewj24
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    Why?
     
  17. Vigilante
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    I met a hacker that turned good and now he is heading up security for a very large corporation in the United States.
     
  18. MJ DeMarco
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    Admin Post
    Looks like BTC is making a resurgence, back near $7500.
     
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  19. Creep
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    Creep New Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED

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    Here is my 2 cents on crypto after hundreds of hours reading whitepapers, looking at ALL projects on CMC, investing in a few of them, and being part of the investor groups for 15-20 months.

    State of crypto
    It's a young market with mostly deflationary assets. This makes the big cheese, BTC naturally increase in price forever, or untill something far better overtakes it in popularity. Imagine myspace vs facebook. If no new sites were ever made, myspace's registrations would be in the billions by now. But other alternatives have come up and are taking over.
    I believe the same will happen with BTC. There are already several projects with better teams and better technology than BTC, which is why I choose not to invest in BTC.

    What about smaller projects?
    It's my belief that adoption will drive price increase for transactional cryptocurrencies. As volume increases, the demand will naturally go up, and as more people hold the tokens, the exchange supply will decrease.
    From an investing standpoint I'm looking toward crypto with transactional value that are reaching broadly with their technology, but also with room for growth.
    If i put 1000 dollars into one of the top 5, i'm not expecting to ever get rich from that. But if I put it in a low market-cap project, I will expect some kind of return once they make it. (Most wont make it)

    Price predictions
    Most of you are probably aware that crypto has risen and fell in cycles. And I think the market will continue to do so. We saw an immense boost in 2017, and saw most coins value drop 90+% in the afternmath. In my opinion the industry has not done enough progress to justify a new bullrun at this time. If one starts the following months, I will sell and wait for a massive drop when people realize there are still no rules in crypto. Most people want rules around their assets.

    I expect a minimum of 2-3 years before we see solid default options in payment and processing within crpyto. I need to see mainstream stores implement crypto payments before I believe multi trillion market caps are possible.
    Untill then BTC will be dominant, and id be surprised to be over 50k.

    What to invest in
    As mentioned i dont believe in investing in top 5 projects for making the big score.
    I have my bets on smaller teams that are trying shake up things. They doing standarized payment methods, making assets of digital goods that would otherwise be forgotten and with no value, making currencies that dont require a warehouse of GPUs to contribute to.
    So far i have put some spare change in crypto since 2017 in several small projects. Some are -99% and dying. Some are going +1000% and rising.

    Based on these thoughts my top 3 recommendations of different risk groups are:
    High risk (high reward)
    EXRNchain - are making a network for cross-chain communication and transaction. In practice this means you can walk up to a shop accepting BTC and pay with ANY currency you want.
    This means they need to be the default option for the merchant. I feel like its a long shot, but the team has shown incredible dedication to the process, and I romantisize their effort.

    Medium risk (medium reward)
    Enjin Coin - are making game assets with real value. The gaming market is huge, and these guys are putting a dollar value on the shiny items the players are getting. They are making partnerships and announcements almost daily. I dont see how this project can fail apart from regulations making it difficult for them.

    Low risk (low reward)
    IOTA - Are doing micro-payment systems with no transaction cost, and a fair node network where everyone pulls their weight. This is in my opinion the surest bet in crypto. They have been talking with so many big companies about partnerships, and have a solid vision for the future. I will not be surprised if i see IOTA show up as the standard in micropayments within the next 10 years.
     
  20. Kevin88660
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    Kevin88660 Bronze Contributor I've Read UNSCRIPTED

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    I got into crypto in 2013 while still in University I realized I could mine it using the campus electricity. I sold them all in the 2014 rally. It was purely for fun.

    Crypto are not fraud and scams. But neither are they wonderful game changers because it is still early and there are a lot of problems to be deal with namely security issue, high transaction fee and slow transaction process.

    The speculation game is about hot money. With money printing all over the world and you have a new asset class, the skin is the limit... This is a market cap game.

    The bulls are right, that if bitcoin ever get treated as a serious asset class with a tiny portion of institutional money coming in, the sky will be the limit again. 6 figure bitcoin price is not impossible.

    But I do not see it coming because institutional players are not going to touch an unregulated market. And I think governments around the world hate bitcoin. The last thing they want to do is regulate it and made it more presentable as a safer investment.

    Without institutional money you only end up with millennials playing it and many were burnt by the 2017 rally. They are not coming back just after a few monthsAnd hence I do not see the current bitcoin rally as sustainable.
     
  21. Timmy C
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    is this where i shill my bags?
     
  22. JamesQB8
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    I've got just under 1k sitting in exchanges. Might dabble but still have no idea what I'm truly doing lmao
     
  23. Roli
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    Roli Gold Contributor Read Millionaire Fastlane I've Read UNSCRIPTED Speedway Pass

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    Looks like my theory is about to be put to the test, remember I said it would start crashing down between $7-8000.

    If I'm right, by this time next month it'll be about $5k
     
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  24. ashzgm09
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    ashzgm09 PARKED

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    After ignoring my best friend for the last 4 years, I missed the boat on the meteoric rise of cryptocurrency. So, of course, now that the average bro and grandma are looking into cryptocurrency, I finally dove in. Actually, I didn't dive in, I merely dipped a toe:) I have been subscribed to some Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin Youtube Channels to keep myself updated in the crypto world.
     
    Last edited: May 18, 2019 at 6:18 AM

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