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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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James Fake

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Although I'm waiting until about late or last week of November to early December for a drop to begin; until then... I believe Bitcoin goes into a bit of a consolidation. Maybe a top range type thing. Bitcoin is showing strength to hold a price range right now; which should give some strong alts some room to run.. possibly 15%+ pops. I plan on swing trading some of these while in mostly cash and awaiting the bigger correction.
 

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I'm going to join this party soon.

The deal is, the same metrics that make me a big gold bull, also bode well for bitcoin, assuming bitcoin is ultimately the "chosen one."

Being a bitcoin bull FAR from makes me a gold or silver bear.

I think we are entering a time in history where this illusion of strength in central banks is going to crumble. John Maynard Keynes is about be be proven ridiculously wrong. One day, in the not so distant future, people are going to look at his work as another failed experiment in human history. Fallible people with political motivations can't be trusted with currency.

Everyone is always highly bullish before the crash. I have never seen more bullishness than than the blind trust in the FED manipulating currency being a great idea. The road to hell is paved with good intentions.

Bitcoin, gold, silver, ethereum (perhaps) should all stand to benefit from this.
 
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Timmy C

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Over 50% of my portfolio is invested in cryptocurrency, and after reading the bitcoin standard(highly recommended), this has confirmed my conviction in this asset class.

For the first time since the emergence of the modern state, individuals have a clear technical solution to escaping the financial clout of the governments they live under.
 

Andreas Thiel

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Over 50% of my portfolio is invested in cryptocurrency, and after reading the bitcoin standard(highly recommended), this has confirmed my conviction in this asset class.

For the first time since the emergence of the modern state, individuals have a clear technical solution to escaping the financial clout of the governments they live under.
IMHO a weird thing to say, after the DOJ seized over $1 billion in Bitcoin.

Some more random illegal pornography in some of the blocks and we'll see what the government decides to do.
Yes, I know there is not much substance behind those claims ... but will that stop the government?
 
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Timmy C

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IMHO a weird thing to say after the DOJ seized over $1 billion in Bitcoin.

Some more random illegal pornography in some of the blocks, and we'll see what the government decides to do.
Yes, I know there is not much substance behind those claims ... but will that stop the government?

I'm not aware of what all the governments in every country do, so forgive my ignorance.

All-time price highs in Brazil, Turkey, Argentina, Sudan, Angola, Venezuela, Pakistan, and Zambia.

It show how rampant inflation has ravaged these currencies a great deal.

It kicks the shit out of keeping it in cash as it's getting printed constantly.
 
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mguerra

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You only have to answer one question:

Does the upside potential of this investment outweigh the downside risk?

To me, yes absolutely.
I think the same.

The bigger risk to me now is to have my BTC stolen as I don't have a hardware wallet yet. Lol
 

csalvato

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IMHO a weird thing to say, after the DOJ seized over $1 billion in Bitcoin.

Some more random illegal pornography in some of the blocks and we'll see what the government decides to do.
Yes, I know there is not much substance behind those claims ... but will that stop the government?
Forgive me if I’m wrong, but it seems like you’re looking for every reason to not get involved, and perhaps subconsciously deleting all the reasons why you should.

The risk of a government ban is almost laughable, for example. If that should happen the price of BTC ultimately goes up, not down, imo.
 

Andreas Thiel

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Forgive me if I’m wrong, but it seems like you’re looking for every reason to not get involved, and perhaps subconsciously deleting all the reasons why you should.

The risk of a government ban is almost laughable, for example. If that should happen the price of BTC ultimately goes up, not down, imo.
Check my earlies messages. I am involved but want to caution people because this is all about odds and many people are irrationally optimistic. The stakes are high when people put in 25% of their net worth ... so I think it is fair to point out risks. Why would the price go up after a ban? Why is the DOJ seizing 1 billion a laughable excuse? Please explain.

The bull case reasoning is very emotional with some substance ... but not as much as most idealists seem to see.
 
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csalvato

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The bull case reasoning is very emotional with some substance ... but not as much as most idealists seem to see.
I see. Interesting perspectives.

Time will have to tell us. We'll see when I revisit this thread in 2 years as per the usual. Either way, I hope your portfolio does well. :)
 

Andreas Thiel

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I see. Interesting perspectives.

Time will have to tell us. We'll see when I revisit this thread in 2 years as per the usual. Either way, I hope your portfolio does well. :)
Guess we won't be able to avoid checking / commenting on intermediate results until then ^^. But yes, good luck to you too :).
 

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People have billions in savings more because of the corona crisis, interest rates at all time low, halving was in may. This is going to explode very soon so prepare yourself.
 

c4n

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You only have to answer one question:

Does the upside potential of this investment outweigh the downside risk?

To me, yes absolutely.

This is the exact same reason why I am in crypto. Very limited and controllable downside, potentially unlimited upside.

Invest an amount you can really afford to lose without sweating it, then let it run its course.
 

Andreas Thiel

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This is the exact same reason why I am in crypto. Very limited and controllable downside, potentially unlimited upside.

Invest an amount you can really afford to lose without sweating it, then let it run its course.
According to many successful investors you should go deeper than that.

Yes, asymmetric rewards are where it is at ... but then
  • you need to look at the odds of the bet succeeding (simply assuming 50% is too crude) and
  • you need to think about what gains can be expected (maybe think bell curve distribution)
Say you make that bet 10 times ... would you still make more than you lose?

My simplified current take on this is that reaching $100,000 in 2024 (SwissRex capped stock to flow model - Swissrex model for the valuation of Bitcoin) has a 30% probability. Seems fine ... turning 15,800 into 100,000 and doing that 3 times beats losing 15,800 * 7.

But what if the odds get worse (it is reasonable down to 15% but more speculative in nature) ... or the expected upside gets capped (at 30% probability of a success it needs to more than double)?
All I am saying is that we should keep looking for signs that warn us if the probability of success might be worse than we thought or that the upside might be more limited.

"Potentially unlimited upside" is also way to simple. It is a pretty crowded bet and if there actually are millions of Bitcoin millionaires in 2024, then lets see how the public thinks and how the governments tax the gains.
 

csalvato

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According to many successful investors you should go deeper than that.

Yes, asymmetric rewards are where it is at ... but then
  • you need to look at the odds of the bet succeeding (simply assuming 50% is too crude) and
  • you need to think about what gains can be expected (maybe think bell curve distribution)
Say you make that bet 10 times ... would you still make more than you lose?

My simplified current take on this is that reaching $100,000 in 2024 (SwissRex capped stock to flow model - Swissrex model for the valuation of Bitcoin) has a 30% probability. Seems fine ... turning 15,800 into 100,000 and doing that 3 times beats losing 15,800 * 7.

But what if the odds get worse (it is reasonable down to 15% but more speculative in nature) ... or the expected upside gets capped (at 30% probability of a success it needs to more than double)?
All I am saying is that we should keep looking for signs that warn us if the probability of success might be worse than we thought or that the upside might be more limited.

"Potentially unlimited upside" is also way to simple. It is a pretty crowded bet and if there actually are millions of Bitcoin millionaires in 2024, then lets see how the public thinks and how the governments tax the gains.

I understand your calculations of upside probabilities. The broad strokes make sense to me (the details probably would, too, I just haven't gone that deep to break down your analysis).

My question is on how you are evaluating the downside risk.

You've said in the past that there's a 50% chance of going to zero (admittedly, that may have been for illustrative purposes), so I am curious as to where you put the probability of BTC experiencing a 90% loss over the next 5-10 years (including going to 0)?

I estimate this probability is near 0. And we can't calculate a back-of-the-envelope EV unless you have an understanding of the different outcomes and their probabilities.

I'd be interested in your take.
 

Abenh

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what do you think about the Top World Nation are starting to develop a blockchain Bank like China, Japan , Switzerland ?
Are we going to see the end of transaction using fiat currency ? aCashless Society 5-10 years from now ?
It's the case in China right Now, Look a this video
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaELQS5kTso


Will Bitcoin be The New Gold ?
Special Question: Will Forex trading will be affected if the Fiat currency are gone ?

Crypto Currencies are the futur for sure , we just need to figure how to surf this transaction(from fiat to crypto) and learn how to benefit from it
 

Andreas Thiel

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I understand your calculations of upside probabilities. The broad strokes make sense to me (the details probably would, too, I just haven't gone that deep to break down your analysis).

My question is on how you are evaluating the downside risk.

You've said in the past that there's a 50% chance of going to zero (admittedly, that may have been for illustrative purposes), so I am curious as to where you put the probability of BTC experiencing a 90% loss over the next 5-10 years (including going to 0)?

I estimate this probability is near 0. And we can't calculate a back-of-the-envelope EV unless you have an understanding of the different outcomes and their probabilities.

I'd be interested in your take.
Yes, tough one. Let's lock in the 30% of it going to $100,000 ... and I see no chance of Bitcoin millionaires being the last men standing who get to rule the world in a financial shit hits the fan scenario ... then how would I break the other 70% down further?

I'd put the danger of it going to zero at 20%. Government intervention once there is an official digital currency, hacks, etc.
Then I'd put the probability of it hovering around $6,000 after a credit crunch (within two years) for a while at 50%. Have not really thought about what would happen in that case ... but maybe miners would get in trouble and after some discussions in the community and attempts to save it - that could also lead to somebody pulling the plug. In that case it might be easy enough to exit without losing those $6,000.

Of course it might be possible to spot the signs (like smear campaigns) before the government takes actions against Bitcoin as well to avoid a 100% loss.
 

csalvato

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Yes, tough one. Let's lock in the 30% of it going to $100,000 ... and I see no chance of Bitcoin millionaires being the last men standing who get to rule the world in a financial shit hits the fan scenario ... then how would I break the other 70% down further?

I'd put the danger of it going to zero at 20%. Government intervention once there is an official digital currency, hacks, etc.
Then I'd put the probability of it hovering around $6,000 after a credit crunch (within two years) for a while at 50%. Have not really thought about what would happen in that case ... but maybe miners would get in trouble and after some discussions in the community and attempts to save it - that could also lead to somebody pulling the plug. In that case it might be easy enough to exit without losing those $6,000.

Of course it might be possible to spot the signs (like smear campaigns) before the government takes actions against Bitcoin as well to avoid a 100% loss.
You put <10k at a probability of 70%, which would obviously mean you think BTC is not a terrific investment, with a 30% upside of about ~7x .

So if you are betting $1, the EV based on your calculations is -.2 (a total loss at 20%) - .15 (a 2/3 loss at 50%) + 2.1 (a 7x gain at 30%) = $1.75

It's still positive, so you're betting on it, but you wouldn't be surprised if it went to 0, so you're being conservative.

I would point out that, even with your calculations, an EV of 1.75 on 1 is a pretty terrific bet, so you may want to consider going longer based on your own estimated probabilities.

That aside, I'd put the price probabilities for the rough price 5 years from now like this:

$01%
<$10k4%
$10-20k5%
$20k-50k40%
$50k-100k40%
$100k+10%
>$1M1%

Let's just assume I'm an oracle and those probabilities are correct. Here's what my EV calculation looks like at a current price of $15k:

-0.01 - 0.02668 + 0 + 1.2 + 2.64 + 2.8 + 0.66 = $7.27

$7.27 on $1 is ridiculously good, so good, that you'd be stupid not to bet on it – IF you agree with those probabilities.

That's why I'm as long as I am. The EV is tremendous by my estimations

If you look at my chart and compare it to your beliefs on probabilities, the main area where we diverge is not on the upside, it's on the downside.

Once of us is going to be proven wrong (I hope it's not me, but who knows!), so is there something we can learn by understanding and analyzing the other side?

The main reason I think that you're wrong on the downside is because it seems that you're basing your assessment on two things:

  1. The government can and will shut down BTC at some point.
  2. There are foreseeable events (such as exchange hacks or other hacks) that will cause a massive decline in price.
The first one is a moot point to me. All governments throughout history have been terrible at banning things people really want to use. It being global makes things even more difficult. If a government bans BTC, it will hurt that government more than BTC, imo.

The second one was a bigger risk earlier in the game. In recent years, each exchange hack had less of an impact on the price. The market is becoming less sensitive to exchange hacks.

Do you disagree? Are there other scenarios that you think can cause such a massive decline?

cc @James Fend
 
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Bones81

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I've only dabbled with BTC swing trading the futures contact. It's in a very bullish pattern with strong momentum behind it at the moment. Looking for an opportunity to buy at the next correction; a cycle analyst I follow is projecting it to top out at the end of this month and then correct down to ~14,000 before taking off again at the beginning of 2021. Would be nice to get it at that price but it's so strong at the moment, it might just keep on chugging to 20,000 by year-end.
 

Andreas Thiel

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what do you think about the Top World Nation are starting to develop a blockchain Bank like China, Japan , Switzerland ?
Are we going to see the end of transaction using fiat currency ? aCashless Society 5-10 years from now ?
It's the case in China right Now, Look a this video
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CaELQS5kTso


Will Bitcoin be The New Gold ?
Special Question: Will Forex trading will be affected if the Fiat currency are gone ?

Crypto Currencies are the futur for sure , we just need to figure how to surf this transaction(from fiat to crypto) and learn how to benefit from it
Cashless could happen sooner. A currency reform is overdue, the mounting piles of debt ... the nominees for Bidens finances transition team ... but I think such a development would be bad for Bitcoin and other coins that exist now.

You put <10k at a probability of 70%, which would obviously mean you think BTC is not a terrific investment, with a 30% upside of about ~7x .

So if you are betting $1, the EV based on your calculations is -.2 (a total loss at 20%) - .15 (a 2/3 loss at 50%) + 2.1 (a 7x gain at 30%) = $1.75

It's still positive, so you're betting on it, but you wouldn't be surprised if it went to 0, so you're being conservative.

I would point out that, even with your calculations, an EV of 1.75 on 1 is a pretty terrific bet, so you may want to consider going longer based on your own estimated probabilities.

That aside, I'd put the price probabilities for the rough price 5 years from now like this:

$01%
<$10k4%
$10-20k5%
$20k-50k40%
$50k-100k40%
$100k+10%
>$1M1%

Let's just assume I'm an oracle and those probabilities are correct. Here's what my EV calculation looks like at a current price of $15k:

-0.01 - 0.02668 + 0 + 1.2 + 2.64 + 2.8 + 0.66 = $7.27

$7.27 on $1 is ridiculously good, so good, that you'd be stupid not to bet on it – IF you agree with those probabilities.

That's why I'm as long as I am. The EV is tremendous by my estimations

If you look at my chart and compare it to your beliefs on probabilities, the main area where we diverge is not on the upside, it's on the downside.

Once of us is going to be proven wrong (I hope it's not me, but who knows!), so is there something we can learn by understanding and analyzing the other side?

The main reason I think that you're wrong on the downside is because it seems that you're basing your assessment on two things:

  1. The government can and will shut down BTC at some point.
  2. There are foreseeable events (such as exchange hacks or other hacks) that will cause a massive decline in price.
The first one is a moot point to me. All governments throughout history have been terrible at banning things people really want to use. It being global makes things even more difficult. If a government bans BTC, it will hurt that government more than BTC, imo.

The second one was a bigger risk earlier in the game. In recent years, each exchange hack had less of an impact on the price. The market is becoming less sensitive to exchange hacks.

Do you disagree? Are there other scenarios that you think can cause such a massive decline?

cc @James Fend
I do think it is an incredible speculation option, but not a great investment.
Even when you look at the year over year gains, which would be roughly around 60% if it goes to $100,000 in 2024 I think (... but I might be wrong. Did the math in a hurry). Even in a bull market after a terrible decline those numbers can't be expected from technology ETFs.

One other reason why I am more pessimistic - and the biggest one - is that we have seen that Bitcoin was not disconnected from other asset classes when all asset classes declined because suddenly cash was king (even gold).

I think there could be a credit crunch and I think it is quite a gamble that Bitcoin will be the winner in that case.
Look at Bitcoin from the perspective of the big players that consider joining the party only now that Bitcoin does really well - how will they feel if Bitcoin drops to 9k? Will they still be convinced that Bitcoin is the future, or will they think there are other, more proven asset classes with less risk?

Probably you picked up on it, but I also worry about unrest in some of the bull case scenarios.
There are so many people making bets now. Assume that Bitcoin "wins" and many other people are left with almost nothing because their bets were flops. What kind of system will we live in then? Will people simply accept that those people who bet on Bitcoin were really lucky? Will governments be forced to tax wealth and redistribute it to avoid unrest? Will the mechanisms to cash out work reliably / at all? Will enough people decide to hodl or will too many people want to take profits at once at some point? I don't see why that point is moot ... especially after the recent DOJ "proof of concept". They can fix public opinion in a heartbeat, especially if billions of people hate the fact that there are winners who do not deserve being rich while they missed out.

The more I think about it, the more I agree that a phase of irrational exuberance and Bitcoin following the uncapped stock to flow projections could be in the 1-3 percent range, though. I'd expect sudden bubble deflation mechanics and a rough awakening at some point, but maybe it should be part of my considerations as well.
 
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c4n

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According to many successful investors you should go deeper than that.

Yes, asymmetric rewards are where it is at ... but then
  • you need to look at the odds of the bet succeeding (simply assuming 50% is too crude) and
  • you need to think about what gains can be expected (maybe think bell curve distribution)
Say you make that bet 10 times ... would you still make more than you lose?

My simplified current take on this is that reaching $100,000 in 2024 (SwissRex capped stock to flow model - Swissrex model for the valuation of Bitcoin) has a 30% probability. Seems fine ... turning 15,800 into 100,000 and doing that 3 times beats losing 15,800 * 7.

But what if the odds get worse (it is reasonable down to 15% but more speculative in nature) ... or the expected upside gets capped (at 30% probability of a success it needs to more than double)?
All I am saying is that we should keep looking for signs that warn us if the probability of success might be worse than we thought or that the upside might be more limited.

"Potentially unlimited upside" is also way to simple. It is a pretty crowded bet and if there actually are millions of Bitcoin millionaires in 2024, then lets see how the public thinks and how the governments tax the gains.

I personally couldn't care less if BTC or ETH or XRP... go to 0. I have 0 downside. I already pulled a lot of profit from them, mostly from arbitrage when the market was much less in sync than today. The days of easy money in crytpo are probably gone.

My point being: you're overthinking it. No one can predict what will happen 1 year in the future, let alone 5, 10, 20 or even 30 years in the future. Assigning a probability % to BTC reaching some valuation based on any model is just nonsense.

You have no control over BTC so why stress it? I'm now in it just enough to avoid major FOMO and that's it. Will it make me a millionaire? Probably not. But focusing on other stuff I have more control over will.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has some great books on the subject of randomness and asymetrics in life.
 

mguerra

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@James Fend Your estimations on the correction are still strong?

Seems like we're going to see a bull run in the next days...
 

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Is there any news about the integration between PayPal and Cryptos?. In Argentina we need something like that now, is a massacre what happened when you want to import your hard-earned dollars.
 

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We have been in a bull run for the last 6 months man.
I was referring to going pass $16k and possibly reaching $17k. Thanks for the response anyways, my man.

I firmly believe we will be pulling back hard to 12k ish.

But it will be short-lived and then go parabolic, so I'll be buying up a shitload then.
Yes, I'm on the same boat.

I'm not messing with swing trading anymore.

I made a small profit (~10%) selling my positions this week but i've come to conclude that's not worth the emotional swings and anxiety I get.

Better stock my wallet in this next correction and back to focus on my business instead.
 

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