The Entrepreneur Forum | Startups | Entrepreneurship | Starting a Business | Motivation | Success

HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

Remove ads while supporting the Unscripted philosophy...become an INSIDER.

Andreas Thiel

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 27, 2018
315
259
130
40
Karlsruhe, Germany
Thanks for your response, brother.

Answering to your question: I'm putting money that I am "okay" with losing, so any potential losses of 60-80% would be swallowed and I would learn a lesson.

But as I'm planning to have the other 50% of my networth in fiat, hopefully I wouldn't have to liquidate the loss in case of a temporary crash in prices.

Now if BTC comes to an end, like in the scenario you articulated, I'd be with my eyes on the market to jump out before the train falls off the cliff.

My plan is to take profits regularly (on the bulls) so I can compensate for that.

BTW... What do you think is most likely to happen in a near future? Mass adoption of BTC/other cryptos or BTC coming to an end?

I think that all this news about big banks and big companies signing contracts with blockchain technologies may be a indicator that this is the future.
Difficult to say. I think mass adoption of Bitcoin as a currency was never likely. It can store value well ... like gold.
So I'd ignore when PayPal allows people to pay with Bitcoin and listen when big investors put money in Bitcoin and hodl.

I do like the odds of Bitcoin as a store of value and Ethereum from the technological standpoint (and maybe Ether as a currency - because it is not designed to store value via its stock-to-flow ratio plans).

Bitcoin and Ethereum have serious communities behind it ... some other coins go for the more professional looking / polished brand, but I don't think that is a winning strategy.

But when it comes to the math as an investment vehicle ... I become careful.
Imagine you put $1000 dollar in and you have a 50% chance of it going to $5000 and a 50% chance of it going to zero ... then it is an okay speculation option but no reasonable investment. I am not convinced that the odds are much better than 50%. It is up to very few big players if Bitcoin succeeds or not. There might already be a plan in place - it could all be rigged. That is why I personally have less than 10% in Bitcoin and Ether right now. I also regularly check DeFi Pulse | The DeFi Leaderboard | Stats, Charts and Guides to see how the "value locked in defi" develops over time. I might become more aggressive, but new input must trigger such a shift.
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

coursereview

New Contributor
Oct 25, 2020
4
1
12
New York
Hey Fastlaners,
As Bitcoin is slowly becoming the real deal. I wanted to give Bitcoin it's own thread containing just long-term & short-term predictions & any big crypto news to help any others who's trading, hodling, etc. a place to throw in your predictions & any actions you plan on taking.

I see the current stage of Bitcoin & crypto as the new Napster & Limewire. Industry bigs (middle-men) will do all they can to fight it & shut it down, but they will soon find out - You can't beat the under-lying ideals & world-changing tech. It will carry on & win out in other forms because the market has experienced the benefits and the market always wins (it will even beat out government regulations).

Bitcoin is in the experienced the benefits stage. As more and more adopt to use Bitcoin as a form of payment (even if the sellers offering to take Btc as payment are valuing on speculative price/trading); the fact remains: They are still using Bitcoin as currency. It is being used as the real deal of exchange between goods & money.

Predictions Nov 8, 2017:
A fork titled B2X was recently cancelled (or "suspended") by their own backers & creators. This is going to give Btc a big bull-run for the next week or so to ~$9,000.

Once it hits this; if the bull-run slows down; a market correction drop of ~20-30% will hit around early or mid December. This will be a short-lived correction though as many are waiting on the sideline (who haven't jumped in the game) for this drop to happen and ready to buy into Bitcoin.

With or without this market correction happening; I strongly believe Btc will at least flirt with $10k before the year is over with.

My actions: I am going to Hodl until I see about a ~15% drop then going to sell half of my coins to later re-buy in once it begins climbing back from the drop. Then Hodl, Hodl, Hodl.
$20,000 again end of 2020 or early 2021 . $50,000 to $100,000 in 3-10 years . I might be low balling .
 

Hwil4321

New Contributor
Jun 1, 2020
6
2
11
Stoke-on-Trent
The logic behind investing in crypto as a non-gambler is this, put a small amount of your reserves, say 3% in btc. the likelihood of it going 10x are very likely, the other likely option is for whatever reason you lose all your money. Well if the 3% goes 10x, that is a 30% gain which is crazy, if you lose it, you lose only 3% which is not even noticable.

This is what Square are doing by putting 1% of their reserves in crypto. I think the trend will only get bigger as other assets start to get over-inflated and people realise that crypto didnt go to zero after the last crash, you now how banks etc who called it a scam now taking positions and seriously talking about it. I used to work as a stock broker and I follow alot of the finance meme pages etc, even traditional finance people are starting to see it as something to speculate on.
 

csalvato

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,776
5,214
1,296
35
Rocky Mountain West
The logic behind investing in crypto as a non-gambler is this, put a small amount of your reserves, say 3% in btc. the likelihood of it going 10x are very likely, the other likely option is for whatever reason you lose all your money. Well if the 3% goes 10x, that is a 30% gain which is crazy, if you lose it, you lose only 3% which is not even noticable.

This is what Square are doing by putting 1% of their reserves in crypto. I think the trend will only get bigger as other assets start to get over-inflated and people realise that crypto didnt go to zero after the last crash, you now how banks etc who called it a scam now taking positions and seriously talking about it. I used to work as a stock broker and I follow alot of the finance meme pages etc, even traditional finance people are starting to see it as something to speculate on.

I'm more like Saylor than Jack. I have over 70% of my investments in BTC, and I'm a non-gambler. To me, the EV is much too high on Bitcoin to be bashful.
 

csalvato

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,776
5,214
1,296
35
Rocky Mountain West
But when it comes to the math as an investment vehicle ... I become careful.
Imagine you put $1000 dollar in and you have a 50% chance of it going to $5000 and a 50% chance of it going to zero ... then it is an okay speculation option but no reasonable investment. I am not convinced that the odds are much better than 50%. It is up to very few big players if Bitcoin succeeds or not. There might already be a plan in place - it could all be rigged. That is why I personally have less than 10% in Bitcoin and Ether right now. I also regularly check DeFi Pulse | The DeFi Leaderboard | Stats, Charts and Guides to see how the "value locked in defi" develops over time. I might become more aggressive, but new input must trigger such a shift.

I am a super BTC bull, so what will follow is clearly biased by my beliefs.

First, I don't think your probability estimates are correct. AT this point, BTC has less than a 1% chance of going to 0.

Even if it loses 90% of it's value by some circumstance I can't foresee, it has proven itself as a valuable store of value and medium of exchange for the unbanked, even if that only includes criminals.

With that in mind, I see a the probability of BTC going to 0 of being neglegable.

On the flipside, the probability of BTC going to 100k, 500k, or even 1M per coin is significant. At the time of this writing where BTC is ~14k, 100k would be <700% gain; 1M would be 7000% gain. My gut tells me the probability of BTC going to 100k or beyond is well beyond 50% over the next 30 years.

I won't pretend to predict the drivers of that, but these facts convince me that we are barely in the first inning of BTC's reign as a global currency:

  • Even though BTC at scale is costly in terms of energy output, it's still vastly more efficient than our current financial system. The current financial system requires significant computing power for all the "unhackable" data centers, and a lot of wasted human effort in fraud prevention, cyber security, government oversight and banking staff, amongst other inefficiencies. More efficient technologies will always win, assuming a critical mass is reached, because saving human labor is what opens up humans to pursue other, more meaningful endeavors. Keeping track of what money should be in what account is not a good use of human intelligence.
  • BTC has had 12 years to prove itself as a store of value, and the adoption as such is only increasing. I believe the next domino to fall to bring us to 50k or even 100k will be corporate treasuries. Corps with 500M+ in cash reserves (e.g. Microsystems + Square) are protecting their cash by putting their corporate treasury into Bitcoin. This is significant, and I could likely write an entire 2000+ word post on why this will bring us to 50k or 100k/coin within the next few years.
  • The narrative is already starting that you are insane to not own bitcoin among incredibly smart people. This narrative gets stronger and stronger every year.
  • There are only 21M BTC that will ever exist. If all 7.8B humans had a "fair share" they would have 0.0027 bitcoin each. But more companies are gobbling up the BTC for their treasury, which decreases the available supply and drives up value. This is where we see BTC exceed 100k in value, IMO. If you have 10 or even 1 bitcoin now, you stand to be a great position within 10-20 years...or much sooner.
I don't tread lightly into BTC, personally. I know it's not the conventional wisdom of "diversifying your portfolio". I don't care about diversity. I care about being where I believe where the puck is going.

I'd rather be wrong and lose significantly than be right and not have followed my gut with massive action.

And when I evaluate the probabilities as I can best guess them, the EV on a $1 bet on Bitcoin is anywhere from $6 to $100.

If you believe that, too, I wouldn't tread lightly, either.
 
Last edited:

mguerra

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Mar 23, 2015
116
118
138
28
I don't tread lightly into BTC, personally. I know it's not the conventional wisdom of "diversifying your portfolio". I don't care about diversity. I care about being where I believe where the puck is going.

I'd rather be wrong and lose significantly than be right and not have followed my gut with massive action.

Same here.

Thanks for you post brother.

Ps: How are you storing your BTCs? Any recommendations of a specific wallet?
 

csalvato

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,776
5,214
1,296
35
Rocky Mountain West
Same here.

Thanks for you post brother.

Ps: How are you storing your BTCs? Any recommendations of a specific wallet?
I have three Ledger Nano S devices that I use as cold storage, stored in a physical safe. The keys are storein three other locations, away from the wallets themselves. That’s for my long term HODLs.

I also have some play money “invested” in bitcoin on Robinhood, just for the ease and speed of trading without fees if I want to do some fun swing trades.

I also do weekly buys on coinbase that I transfer to cold storage about once a year.

The vast majority of my BTC is in that cold storage from when I bought it a few years ago, though.
 

Andy Black

Dad, Husband, Inbound Marketeer
Staff member
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
May 20, 2014
11,347
45,701
4,306
Ireland
I have three Ledger Nano S devices that I use as cold storage, stored in a physical safe. The keys are storein three other locations, away from the wallets themselves. That’s for my long term HODLs.

I also have some play money “invested” in bitcoin on Robinhood, just for the ease and speed of trading without fees if I want to do some fun swing trades.

I also do weekly buys on coinbase that I transfer to cold storage about once a year.

The vast majority of my BTC is in that cold storage from when I bought it a few years ago, though.
Lol. I have visions of dry ice coming out of vaults. I’ve no clue about crypto, and knowing my obsessive-compulsive nature I’ll probably keep it that way. Good luck though, and thanks for bringing a bit of sci-fi to my Sunday afternoon!
 

csalvato

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,776
5,214
1,296
35
Rocky Mountain West
Lol. I have visions of dry ice coming out of vaults. I’ve no clue about crypto, and knowing my obsessive-compulsive nature I’ll probably keep it that way. Good luck though, and thanks for bringing a bit of sci-fi to my Sunday afternoon!
Just open a coinbase account and buy some. It’s easier than a bank account and I’m pretty sure it’s available in Ireland :)
 

Andreas Thiel

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 27, 2018
315
259
130
40
Karlsruhe, Germany
Not sure about the optimism regarding Bitcoin reaching 100k. Currently the market cap is at ... Google says roughly 200 billion U.S. dollars. So you think an inflow of 1,8 trillion is likely? Personal savings in the U.S. were around 1.3 trillion in 2019? Sure, there were 6.18 trillion in ETFs in 2018 I think ... so it can happen, but I think there will be a showdown between different asset classes and if most investors are careful, then reaching 100k will be difficult. Momentum will play an enormous role in that race. And many people are going to bet that big tech will profit from the crisis in some way ... and many people consider investing in real estate as well.
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

Last edited:

csalvato

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,776
5,214
1,296
35
Rocky Mountain West
Not sure about the optimism regarding Bitcoin reaching 100k. Currently the market cap is at ... Google says roughly 200 billion U.S. dollars. So you think an inflow of 1,8 trillion is likely? Personal savings in the U.S. were around 1.3 trillion in 2019? Sure, there were 6.18 trillion in ETFs in 2018 I think ... so it can happen, but I think there will be a showdown between different asset classes and if most investors are careful, then reaching 100k will be difficult. Momentum will play an enormous role in that race. And many people are going to bet that big tech will profit from the crisis in some way ... and many people consider investing in real estate as well.
It seems to me You are looking only at consumers and American markets. This is global, and the big waves will come from corporate holders, domestic and international.

Gold has a market cap of 9T, so BTC taking most of that pie seems highly likely to me.

Eclipsing it entirely also has a significant probability, imo.

Also, it seems that you may be thinking that 1.8T needs to actually be invested. Is that right?

if so, that’s a fallacy. There doesn’t need to be an injection of 1.8T to be worth 1.8T, just like you don’t need to put $100k into your house to see it appreciate 100k in value. The value goes up as demand far exceeds supply. If, tomorrow, every Fortune 500 company wanted to store 20M of their treasury in BTC, the demand would be huge and supply would be relatively low, so you’d see a disproportionate rise in price.

What am I missing? What do I have incorrect?
 
Last edited:

Kasimir

Bronze Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
Sep 4, 2020
271
240
150
Switzerland
It seems to me You are looking only at consumers and American markets. This is global, and the big waves will come from corporate holders, domestic and international.

Gold has a market cap of 9T, so BTC taking most of that pie seems highly likely to me.

Eclipsing it entirely also has a significant probability, imo.

Also, it seems that you may be thinking that 1.8T needs to actually be invested. Is that right?

if so, that’s a fallacy. There doesn’t need to be an injection of 1.8T to be worth 1.8T, just like you don’t need to put $100k into your house to see it appreciate 100k in value. The value goes up as demand far exceeds supply. If, tomorrow, every Fortune 500 company wanted to store 20M of their treasury in BTC, the demand would be huge and supply would be relatively low, so you’d see a disproportionate rise in price.

What am I missing? What do I have incorrect?
While I like how you view the situation and I often forget to look at what you mentioned in your post.
I look more at how different for example the US election could impact the bitcoin prices. I think it's important that we look at all facts. The current biggest, short-term impacts on bitcoin will be the US election 2020 and Covid.

Here my take on the short-term action we'll see in my mind.
Honestly, I thought it will get uglier before the election. I'm a little disappointed with both parties. Since the first debate, it's more like any election, even Trump isn't Trump anymore. As seen in the last debate.
A short look at the current numbers and it's pretty clear that it doesn't look good for Trump. I like to look at numbers from "The Economist" which isn't inherently left-wing or right-wing. They are considered as European center, which is a little left-wing in the US, but a find that they are quite neutral in the elections and political matters. President—Forecasting the US 2020 elections Interesting to read and they give Trump around a 5% chance of winning. As I experienced 2020 I think everything is possible so I'm not 100% sure.

But here are my scenarios for the election and the impact on the bitcoin market:
1. Trump wins: Protests, some riots, and the left-wing will try to start a movement. Potentially really bad for stock markets. This means it could be good for Gold and Bitcoin. Maybe the Democrats will try to delay the election and get Pelosi into the Whitehouse. Which would be a really mean but totally badass move.
2. Biden wins, but it's close: Fox News and Trump will say it's rigged and try everything to change the results. Maybe they even have a chance with three supreme court judges nominated by Trump. Quite difficult to predict. But not knowing who won will definitely scare investors, that won't be good for the US Dollar and the US stock market. And could be good for other assets like Bitcoin, Gold, etc.
3. Biden wins, but by a lot: I don't like this scenario when analyzing Bitcoin. Can imagine a peaceful transferal of power at the moment. But if the election is won by Biden with around 345 (Biden) vs 193 (Trump), which is the Forcast from the Economist right now, it could be difficult for Trump. Most republicans won't help Trump if they see him lose that big. And obviously some of his fans will make trouble, some shooting, some protests but not too much that will move markets. They will rather be bullish in such a scenario. But what will Trump to until January? Will he behave and do everything normal or will he try to do some stupid things? Hard to figure out but could potentially be pretty bad for all sides, stock markets, Bitcoin, gold, etc. It could have a really big bullish effect on Bitcoin and gold, but for that, he needs to do so much trouble that companies and people don't want to have USD and that's difficult in two months even for Trump.

So what will happen? It's so difficult, but I still believe Bitcoin will go up another 5k - 15k with only looking at fundamental aspects.

What do you guys think?

Covid doesn't have a big direct effect on the markets right now. But through inflation it has. And that isn't looking good right now.
Bildschirmfoto 2020-11-02 um 16.19.57.png
But do people belive enough in Bitcoin that it could go to 100k? I really don't know. But I do.
 

Andreas Thiel

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 27, 2018
315
259
130
40
Karlsruhe, Germany
It seems to me You are looking only at consumers and American markets. This is global, and the big waves will come from corporate holders, domestic and international.

Gold has a market cap of 9T, so BTC taking most of that pie seems highly likely to me.

Eclipsing it entirely also has a significant probability, imo.

Also, it seems that you may be thinking that 1.8T needs to actually be invested. Is that right?

if so, that’s a fallacy. There doesn’t need to be an injection of 1.8T to be worth 1.8T, just like you don’t need to put $100k into your house to see it appreciate 100k in value. The value goes up as demand far exceeds supply. If, tomorrow, every Fortune 500 company wanted to store 20M of their treasury in BTC, the demand would be huge and supply would be relatively low, so you’d see a disproportionate rise in price.

What am I missing? What do I have incorrect?
I do not see a reason to get out of Gold. Bitcoin needs momentum for a shift from Gold. Or is there another reason?

You might be right about the price. I have read about the stock-to-flow ratio ... but not about the machanism behind how the price develops. Is there a scenario where "only" 300 billion additional dollars go towards Bitcoin ... and the price goes to 100k? If that is a likely development, than yes ... that would significantly change how I feel about the odds.
 

csalvato

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,776
5,214
1,296
35
Rocky Mountain West
I do not see a reason to get out of Gold. Bitcoin needs momentum for a shift from Gold. Or is there another reason?

You might be right about the price. I have read about the stock-to-flow ratio ... but not about the machanism behind how the price develops. Is there a scenario where "only" 300 billion additional dollars go towards Bitcoin ... and the price goes to 100k? If that is a likely development, than yes ... that would significantly change how I feel about the odds.
Hm i may be wrong, but it seems we are both thinking on different time scales (as the post from @Kasimir highlights, where he discusses short term prices).

As a buy and hold investor, I am thinking very long term.I purchased several years ago and don't intend to sell for 20-30 more years.
 

csalvato

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,776
5,214
1,296
35
Rocky Mountain West
But here are my scenarios for the election and the impact on the bitcoin market:
1. Trump wins: Protests, some riots, and the left-wing will try to start a movement. Potentially really bad for stock markets. This means it could be good for Gold and Bitcoin. Maybe the Democrats will try to delay the election and get Pelosi into the Whitehouse. Which would be a really mean but totally badass move.
2. Biden wins, but it's close: Fox News and Trump will say it's rigged and try everything to change the results. Maybe they even have a chance with three supreme court judges nominated by Trump. Quite difficult to predict. But not knowing who won will definitely scare investors, that won't be good for the US Dollar and the US stock market. And could be good for other assets like Bitcoin, Gold, etc.
3. Biden wins, but by a lot: I don't like this scenario when analyzing Bitcoin. Can imagine a peaceful transferal of power at the moment. But if the election is won by Biden with around 345 (Biden) vs 193 (Trump), which is the Forcast from the Economist right now, it could be difficult for Trump. Most republicans won't help Trump if they see him lose that big. And obviously some of his fans will make trouble, some shooting, some protests but not too much that will move markets. They will rather be bullish in such a scenario. But what will Trump to until January? Will he behave and do everything normal or will he try to do some stupid things? Hard to figure out but could potentially be pretty bad for all sides, stock markets, Bitcoin, gold, etc. It could have a really big bullish effect on Bitcoin and gold, but for that, he needs to do so much trouble that companies and people don't want to have USD and that's difficult in two months even for Trump.
I'm not huge on day trading, swing trading, weekly trading, etc. Whenever I've tried to do it, I suck at it. I've come to learn that my strength is in recognizing longer term trends that will maturate over 10-15 years or more. My weakness is timing local tops and bottoms.

In any of these three scenarios, when I look over the next 4 years of the presidency of the winner, there are significant economic challenges that will really put pressure on breaking the USD as the global reserve/sovereign currency.

If Trump wins, he will continue to blindly pump the stock market, despite the economy unraveling under the surface. If Biden wins, expect socialism to kill innovation and drive out entrepreneurs, classic Atlas Shrugged style.

In both situations, expect much more money printing, as this seems to be the de facto method of solving problems these days.

So when I consider BTC vs. DXY over the next 4 years, DXY doesn't really stand a chance, from what I can see. I don't have a crystal ball though, so let me know if you think I'm missing something significant.
 

Andreas Thiel

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 27, 2018
315
259
130
40
Karlsruhe, Germany
Hm i may be wrong, but it seems we are both thinking on different time scales (as the post from @Kasimir highlights, where he discusses short term prices).

As a buy and hold investor, I am thinking very long term.I purchased several years ago and don't intend to sell for 20-30 more years.
Well ... difficult to take apart. I am talking about the validity of hodling as well ... but I think the next year ... maybe two years might decide how lucrative that bet is. We have seen the narrative that the Bitcoin bubble has burst before ... and if Gold performs a lot better short term, than that narrative can scare investors away for good. And there are many people who want their "told-you-so" moment in both camps.
 

Kasimir

Bronze Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
Sep 4, 2020
271
240
150
Switzerland
I'm not huge on day trading, swing trading, weekly trading, etc. Whenever I've tried to do it, I suck at it. I've come to learn that my strength is in recognizing longer term trends that will maturate over 10-15 years or more. My weakness is timing local tops and bottoms.

In any of these three scenarios, when I look over the next 4 years of the presidency of the winner, there are significant economic challenges that will really put pressure on breaking the USD as the global reserve/sovereign currency.

If Trump wins, he will continue to blindly pump the stock market, despite the economy unraveling under the surface. If Biden wins, expect socialism to kill innovation and drive out entrepreneurs, classic Atlas Shrugged style.

In both situations, expect much more money printing, as this seems to be the de facto method of solving problems these days.

So when I consider BTC vs. DXY over the next 4 years, DXY doesn't really stand a chance, from what I can see. I don't have a crystal ball though, so let me know if you think I'm missing something significant.
While I may analyze the markets on a short-term level I never invest in weekly trading or so. But it can help to get a good entry or exit point. Tried day trading and just lost too much and I don't like the basics of it. Then I rather just go to a casino or put my money on a candidate in the upcoming election. That would be a whole different topic.

Think you are right on the inflation on a long-term view. Think the inflation will be worse with Biden but also not great with Trump. On BTC vs. DXY I'm also on the same page as you're. Think DXY doesn't have a chance.

I'm thinking about putting more money in BTC, but still not sure. Hadn't a big problem if I lost 100% of it, but just not sure that 13k is the best entry-level.
 

csalvato

Legendary Contributor
EPIC CONTRIBUTOR
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Summit Attendee
Speedway Pass
May 5, 2014
1,776
5,214
1,296
35
Rocky Mountain West
I'm thinking about putting more money in BTC, but still not sure. Hadn't a big problem if I lost 100% of it, but just not sure that 13k is the best entry-level.

I think it's possible we see a pull back to 12k, 11k or even high 9s.

That said, I suck at predicting tops and bottoms.
 

Kasimir

Bronze Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
Sep 4, 2020
271
240
150
Switzerland
I think it's possible we see a pull back to 12k, 11k or even high 9s.

That said, I suck at predicting tops and bottoms.
Think it's really difficult to predict atm. And I suck too at least if I don't concentrate on one topic, like election or Covid. Invested most of my current assets a long time ago. I'll put in some more at around 12k and wait with the rest. But thanks a lot!
 

Kasimir

Bronze Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
Sep 4, 2020
271
240
150
Switzerland
Holy shit. I knew that there were some tricks to get or be president. But didn't know that it was that bad. Totally changes my statements.

If Biden wins with a small margin and Trump won't go out of office there will be a problem. The question is if he would lose his republicans back or not. If so he could easily get impeached.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WZWRhLW7Y8w


What do you guys think?
 

Don't like ads? Remove them while supporting the forum. Subscribe.

Kasimir

Bronze Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
Sep 4, 2020
271
240
150
Switzerland
Sorry if my last post didn't suit much in that thread. But I think it could have a big influence on Bitcoin.
I'm not for or against either presidential candidate.
I think there's never been a better time to own BTC.
Couldn't agree more. I'm waiting a little until I'm sure that it'll turn out this way and then it could be a great entry signal.
 

mguerra

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Mar 23, 2015
116
118
138
28
What kind of influence do you guys think it will be on Bitcoin?

I think most of the people will jump on it after the world chaos that will follow in the next months...

I'm going bullish now.

No fear.


Ps: What's are you guys entry points?
 

Kasimir

Bronze Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
Sep 4, 2020
271
240
150
Switzerland
What kind of influence do you guys think it will be on Bitcoin?

I think most of the people will jump on it after the world chaos that will follow in the next months...

I'm going bullish now.

No fear.


Ps: What's are you guys entry points?
Really difficult question. I'm going in when I'm sure that Biden wins. Doesn't matter if it's already at 15k and I lost 1'000$/bitcoin. I like to minimalize risk which doesn't have to be taken.
If I get an entry point under 15k I'm happy. Think if we really get the big chaos which I think we get we'll see some new highs. I think the key to these new highs are that Trump doesn't want to leave the Whitehouse.
On that topic something interesting to watch:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KuqhhrmhfCI

I know it's CNN and it's not neutral, regardless it's interesting to know.

I don't like the fact that I'm betting on world chaos and I'd never go bearish on an index like S&P 500 but I just believe in Bitcoin and it'll go up even without the chaos. The only worry is that it already went up to 14.5k from 10.5k. But we'll see.
 

mguerra

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Mar 23, 2015
116
118
138
28
Thanks man, I appreciate your answer.

I'm already all in on BTC and jumping out of the government. I think Bitcoin is only the logical next step for our civilization to make to advance as a society.

To me Bitcoin is like a young genius startup that disrupted the financial system.

Regardless of it's failures and needed improvements, it will keep growing because it has massive forces behind it.

The laws of the "new market " are heavily poiting towards Bitcoin / decentralized currency - and there are lots of upsides to be taken advantage of until it loses its crazy volatile returns.

The old system is broke. We are on the information era. The timing is right.

Too many people have access to internet, information and technology today. Censorship is difficult now and this makes difficult to mantain control over the population. Too many people know what's going on... and have the power to do something about it.

Maybe Bitcoin is the next tech bubble. Maybe it is the next level of our organization as a species.

One thing I know for sure: fiat is dead.

Get in before is time to get out.
 
Last edited:

Kasimir

Bronze Contributor
Read Millionaire Fastlane
Speedway Pass
Sep 4, 2020
271
240
150
Switzerland
Thanks man, I appreciate your answer.

I'm already all in on BTC and jumping out of the government. I think Bitcoin is only the logical next step for our civilization to make to advance as a society.

To me Bitcoin is like a young genius startup that disrupted the financial system.

Regardless of it's failures and needed improvements, it will keep growing because it has massive forces behind it.

The laws of the "new market " are heavily poiting towards Bitcoin / decentralized currency - and there are lots of upsides to be taken advantage of until it loses its crazy volatile returns.

The old system is broke. We are on the information era. The timing is right.

Too many people have access to internet and information today. Censorship is difficult now and this makes difficult to mantain control over the population. Too many people know what's going on... and have the power to do something about it.

Maybe Bitcoin is the next tech bubble. Maybe it is the next level of our organization as a species.

One thing I know for sure: fiat is dead.

Get in before is time to get out.
Couldn't agree more. I think and hope that it will be the next big thing. But I'm not ready to lose all my money. As of my current situation, I don't have to worry about finances too much. However, I'm not ready to lose all of it. Have now about 25% of my assets in BTC and maybe put in another 10-25%.

Really hope that you/we are right.
 

Andreas Thiel

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 27, 2018
315
259
130
40
Karlsruhe, Germany
Thanks man, I appreciate your answer.

I'm already all in on BTC and jumping out of the government. I think Bitcoin is only the logical next step for our civilization to make to advance as a society.

To me Bitcoin is like a young genius startup that disrupted the financial system.

Regardless of it's failures and needed improvements, it will keep growing because it has massive forces behind it.

The laws of the "new market " are heavily poiting towards Bitcoin / decentralized currency - and there are lots of upsides to be taken advantage of until it loses its crazy volatile returns.

The old system is broke. We are on the information era. The timing is right.

Too many people have access to internet and information today. Censorship is difficult now and this makes difficult to mantain control over the population. Too many people know what's going on... and have the power to do something about it.

Maybe Bitcoin is the next tech bubble. Maybe it is the next level of our organization as a species.

One thing I know for sure: fiat is dead.

Get in before is time to get out.
That is just irrational. The odds of idealists organizing, using Bitcoin and transforming the way the world works are zero.

Most people who complain about the broken system go and loot stores or complain on social media. What are those massive forces that you talk about? I don't see them. I only see big players who do everything to water down the original concept and provide commercial alternatives.

When I look at Bitcoin I don't see more than a less proven alternative to Gold ... which might do well in the current system.

If there is a Blockchain that you could bet on if you truly believe that the current system will be eaten up by it, then go for Ethereum with its smart contracts. There is nothing behind Bitcoin that could play much of a role in such a transformation process. If Bitcoin did mature and the price did stabilize the way you describe, then it would be a horrible currency.

I think the chart about how well Bitcoin follows the stock-to-flow projection is interesting and one of my main considerations for future actions:

There are also voices that say that there are issues with the stock-to-flow projections and a corrected version is less thrilling.


... $100,000 reached in 2024, not 2021 ... so still fine I guess.
 
Last edited:

mguerra

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Mar 23, 2015
116
118
138
28
That is just irrational. The odds of idealists organizing, using Bitcoin and transforming the way the world works are zero.

Most people who complain about the broken system go and loot stores or complain on social media. What are those massive forces that you talk about? I don't see them. I only see big players who do everything to water down the original concept and provide commercial alternatives.

When I look at Bitcoin I don't see more than a less proven alternative to Gold ... which might do well in the current system.

If there is a Blockchain that you could bet on if you truly believe that the current system will be eaten up by it, then go for Ethereum with its smart contracts. There is nothing behind Bitcoin that could play much of a role in such a transformation process. If Bitcoin did mature and the price did stabilize the way you describe, then it would be a horrible currency.

I think the chart about how well Bitcoin follows the stock-to-flow projection is interesting and one of my main considerations for future actions:

There are also voices that say that there are issues with the stock-to-flow projections and a corrected version is less thrilling.


... $100,000 reached in 2024, not 2021 ... so still fine I guess.
You are right, brother. I'm talking more about Blockchain when I say the future of finances.

Bitcoin is just the hot potato of the moment.

Sorry my incomplete communication. I should've been clearer.


PS: Thanks for the resources!
 

Andreas Thiel

Bronze Contributor
FASTLANE INSIDER
Read Millionaire Fastlane
I've Read UNSCRIPTED
Speedway Pass
Aug 27, 2018
315
259
130
40
Karlsruhe, Germany
You are right, brother. I'm talking more about Blockchain when I say the future of finances.

Bitcoin is just the hot potato of the moment.

Sorry my incomplete communication. I should've been clearer.


PS: Thanks for the resources!
Yes, the value of Blockchain technology should not be underestimated.

But I think that the future explosive grassroots disruption is not as likely as most people think.

Probably the adoption will be evolutionary and happen very much in line with the way things currently work, for example with IBM Blockchain services.
Big companies will just need to pay less for middlemen and lawyers and be able to automate processes to improve their margins.

So a case can be made that you should rather bet on the potential of Blockchain technology by buying the stocks of S&P 500 or Nasdaq ... or by trying to spot smaller companies before they get acquired by larger ones.
 

Sponsored Offers

  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Lex DeVille's - Advanced Freelance Udemy Courses!
If you read the last message then you know I'm removing my courses from Udemy next month. You...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Fox Web School "Legend" Group Coaching Program 2020
I might join in a couple weeks. I have so many things I have to take care of and I hate to sound...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE You Are One Call Away From Living Your Dream Life - LightHouse’s Accountability Program ⚡
This program helped me to triple my revenue over 7 months while also moving to a new city in the...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Grow Your Business With a Book (An Unorthodox Marketing Strategy That Built One of the Largest...
PS. what do you think about the idea of setting up live Busking experiences on Air BNB? I could...
  • Sticky
FEATURED! Introducing... WEALTH EXPO$ED, A Short Story By MJ DeMarco
Hi Mj, I just bought it. And reading it. I think is a great idea to write using the stories to...
  • Sticky
MARKETPLACE Kill Bigger Incubator
@Kak Thanks for the reply. Whats interesting is that I have an idea that's been cooking which...



Forum Sponsor

sponsor

New Topics

Fastlane Insiders

View the forum AD FREE.
Private, unindexed content
Detailed process/execution threads
Monthly conference calls with doers
Ideas needing execution, more!

Join Fastlane Insiders.

Top Bottom