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GoGetter24

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Why argue about its merits or downfalls?
Could mean the difference between someone getting rich or not.

Lack of barrier to entry isn't an argument against the success of a technology.
It is when the technology is a money. Back when any bank used to print banknotes, there were umpteen types of them. But they all had to be redeemable in a single base currency -- i.e. they were credits, limiting the total stock.

So, this is argument doesn't make sense when trying to argue against the success of 99% of crypto coins/tokens in existence.
It does if there's going to be 10 times more of them next year.

And it does (on volatility) when none of them are using the same base.

Indeed in the case of a utility token it will be worse. The more people who are actually using a thing for trade, the more stable the value. Forex isn't particularly stable (versus prior metals regime), but it's stable enough, outside of crises. The reason is it's being traded in large quantities for actual commerce. Forex traders merely catalyze price discovery: they don't play the primary role in making that price. And hence price stability is decent enough. But even then, there is a tendency to default to USD as the international unit of account, especially at higher commerce volumes, to increase stability.

If it's a token used even more narrowly, such as a single utility, stability is going to be even less than bitcoin. And as a result, people are going to say "yes that's very clever, but do you take credit card?".

Again, he is assuming cryptocurrency has to be used as a replacement for fiat currency. And again, given that 99% of cryptocurrencies currently in existence aren't intended to replace fiat currency -- they are intended as utility tokens
Can you give us the best example of a compelling crypto utility token play.

My best argument against this is that I -- and many, many people I know -- have made a lot of money purchasing coins/tokens at ICO.
This is hindsight. A lot of people made big money off buying tulips -- by getting out before the music stopped.

It's an investment thesis, it doesn't matter what happened before, only what will happen next.

But, I don't know many people who understand technology that don't agree that blockchain has a LOT of advantages over centralized transactional solutions.
Give one case where it's better within a single company, and one where it will beat traditional trust & transaction mechanisms between companies.
 
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GoGetter24

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So, once crypto is being used more extensively, why do you think the value won't have stabilized?
If a particular crypto is used to the extensiveness of a standard fiat currency, it would stabilize.

Apparently, Maersk thinks blockchain to manage its supply chain is likely superior to a centralized database.
I'll take a look at it.

By the way, if price stability is your big argument, keep in mind that there are plenty of crypto companies creating "stable coins," where the price is pegged to a fiat currency or an index. There is no reason why you can't have cryptocurrency with a price just as stable as fiat, if that is what you need to support your use case.
I feel this is just proving the point though, because at that point you may as well use PayPal. The ultimate peg to a base currency is debt denominated in it.
 

GoGetter24

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- Immutability (transactions will never go away -- PayPal could go away tomorrow)
Accounting is highly immutable. Accounts are audited by law, and bad accounting can result in jail. Furthermore, I know of not a single case where bank account records were lost in such a way people lost their money. Even if a bank's computers were vaporized, people can present their own copies (usually in email now, but some in paper) of their accounts to the court in case of any dispute in who owes what. But I've never heard of a case where "the bank didn't keep backups".
- Transparency (every member of the network has access to data, not just the middleman)
Where is this currently a problem in conventional ecommerce?
- Self Governance (members of the community make the rules, not some arbitrary third-party)
If flat governance was superior, corporations wouldn't near-universally have the triangular structure they do.
- Reliability (as long as the entire network doesn't crash, the blockchain is available)
There is no indication there are reliability issues with conventional online payments. PayPal etc just keep immutable copies of accounts on multiple machines in the cloud. To join you in "go away for weeks and learn my wisdom", you can read up about systems like Kubernetes. I'd sooner put money in cloud systems than blockchain systems.
- Security (data must be changed in hundreds/thousands/millions of places to hack the ledger)
Can you explain how the famous Etherium or MtGox events were consistent with supposed superior security?
- Scalability (in theory, infinitely scalable if the members of the community want it to be)
No advantage over conventional online payment systems.
- Smart Contracts (there is currently no way to encapsulate complex transactional rules in a third-party system)
Could be right. Currently the solution to this is to make standardized base agreements (e.g. ISDA). But this still isn't compelling versus programmatic 3rd party escrow. If there is a compelling play here, I still think it's more likely it'll be fulfilled by financial institutions on normal accounts.
- Cost (blockchain transactions can be achieved for much less cost than traditional transactions)
It's not though, compared to standard ecommerce systems. If I see a widely used crypto with stable sub-3% transaction costs and immediate clearing, I'll believe you.

Also I still don't see why you keep repeating the utility tokens are 99% point. I fail to see how that's a rebuttal. If the crypto currency concept cannot prevail in the general case (money), how is it it can prevail in the narrow case (basically company gift vouchers, the world's lamest gift -- precisely because it's so clearly less valuable than the cash that bought it).
 
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madmoney

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c4n

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Can you explain how the famous Etherium or MtGox events were consistent with supposed superior security?

Is there a good GIF to show to someone who doesn't understand the difference between a technology (blockchain) and a private exchange company (MtGox)?
 

c4n

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LOL @JScott you are so patient and willing to provide value/answer questions that you missed the hidden sarcasm in my post ;)
 

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I thought it might be sarcasm, but I really liked that analogy I came up with... :)

The DMW is a central authority, may be better to rephrase it to say MtGox is a transport company that, at one point, operated 70% of the buses before it went bankrupt.
 
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LifeTransformer

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I'd sooner put money in cloud systems than blockchain systems.

Hmm...
 

LifeTransformer

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It's funny how many factions Cryptocurrency has created.

The most notable is being played out right here with Pro-crypto Vs Anti-crypto, but then there are also:

Bitcoin Vs Ethereum
Bitcoin Vs Bitcoin Cash
Ripple Vs Lumens
EOS Vs Ethereum
NEO Vs Ethereum
NEO Vs Qtum
VeChain Vs Walton

On and on it goes..

My point? Why bother arguing. :)
 

GoGetter24

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My point? Why bother arguing.
Arguing is very valuable in matters of money. For instance, Dalio of Bridgewater Associates - Wikipedia demands employees argue, and anyone of any rank can critisize anyone else's theories, including his.

It's a very good gauge of the strength of an investment thesis. Attack someone's investment and they'll automatically defend it. But the manner and content of the defense can give you data indicating if you should go long or short on it.
 
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LifeTransformer

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Arguing is very valuable in matters of money. For instance, Dalio of Bridgewater Associates - Wikipedia demands employees argue, and anyone of any rank can critisize anyone else's theories, including his.

It's a very good gauge of the strength of an investment thesis. Attack someone's investment and they'll automatically defend it. But the manner and content of the defense can give you data indicating if you should go long or short on it.

I'm still reading "Principles", don't think I've stumbled on that nugget of wisdom yet. I was thinking more along the lines of wasting time.

You seem to be set in your opinion, others have tried to point out to you that big businesses are definitely heading into "blockchain", that big businesses are using cryptocurrencies already, and that more adoption, or at least experimentation, is on the way.

IBM is partnered with Stellar Lumens, a company founded by the guy originally behind Ripple. Ripple have partnerships with large banks, and a partnership with Western Union in the works too. (I'm a Ripple hater, but can't deny there might be something here).

IBM is also a member of the Ethereum Enterprise Alliance (Ethereum being the main subject of this thread). There are hundreds more big names in that group too.

Supply chains and logistics plays are also gaining traction, with projects in that space linked to big companies like FedEx to name just one.

Tokenized assets have been mentioned in this thread too.

If you want to talk currencies, and don't believe in Bitcoin (I'm on the fence long term tbh, but hold it) then that's a whole other ballgame to be debating.

I think Bitcoin is like the steam engine myself, 7 TX per second? What a waste of energy! But there are newer, far more exciting projects coming together like Dash or Nano (examples) that could prove to be more successful in the future.

If you're a fan of the gold standard, there's even going to more than one gold back tokens on the market soon too.

This probably reads like a ramble, but there you go. It's not really a topic that can be condensed into one reply on a public forum. If you're not sold on blockchain, I'd suggest reading "The Blockchain Revolution".

Sure there is a hype factor involved too, Can't disagree with there, but there's been as much of a hype factor in the Marijuana sector just as an example too.

FOMO is strong, and it doesn't just apply to cryptocurrencies/tokens either. How many people bought the top of the stock market a few weeks ago I wonder? What about the Marijuana "boom"? Just as a few examples.
 

GoGetter24

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IBM is partnered with Stellar Lumens, a company founded by the guy originally behind Ripple. Ripple have partnerships with large banks, and a partnership with Western Union in the works too. (I'm a Ripple hater, but can't deny there might be something here).
You seem to be set in your opinion, others have tried to point out to you that big businesses are definitely heading into "blockchain", that big businesses are using cryptocurrencies already, and that more adoption, or at least experimentation, is on the way.
But this logic is wrong. It says: big businesses are investing in a space -> they must be doing it because they smell money -> if I invest in that space I'll get rich too -> if someone sees big businesses investing in a space, and reject that as a reason to enter it, it's due to stone-headedness. The number of logical fallacies in that is too many to count.

Big business investing in a space is not a compelling reason to do so yourself. They have different reasons, and different ways of profiting, than an individual. They can adopt blockchain technology, and you can be invested in a blockchain technology, but gain nothing from it (or lose money) while they used it highly profitably to reduce their costs or boost their profit margins.

And then of course there's LTCM & co. And they were led by nobel-prize winning economists. Being done by big companies doesn't make an investment thesis correct.

Then they can have other reasons to dabbling in a space. My question would be: what percentage of their capital is invested? I'm guessing a tiny fraction of a percent. That'd be a fairly cheap insurance policy of keeping their finger on the pulse in case there is something there, or a means of influence.

So I'm not convinced, not because I can't be convinced, but because this isn't convincing.

My conclusion is that concluding this is closed mindedness is projecting. Since I'm neither long or short on this, I have no skin in the game. Jumping to the conclusion that I'm set in an opinion could be pre-emptive accusation (he who said the rhyme did the crime).

If I get compelling indication of an investment play in this space, I may act on it. The value of being right is nothing compared to the value of getting rich: which is all I'm concerned with.
 
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GoGetter24

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Btw, I believe this is where your thinking is backwards...

You seem to think fiat is the general case, and utility is the specific case. But, utility functions aren't a subset of fiat. In fact, it's the complete opposite -- fiat could be a specific case of crypto as a utility. There are LOTS of utility functions of crytpo, with fiat being just one.
Interestingly, this is where I think your opinion is backwards too.

Let's confirm we're talking about the same things.

Fiat (and Bitcoin) is a currency: a commonly (or intended to be commonly) used unit of value exchange. I.e. it sits on one side of almost all transactions in an economy.

A utility token, such as Golem or Filecoin, is just a means of payment for a particular service. You want Golem stuff, you pay Golem. You do Golem stuff, you get Golem. Problem is of course, that my landlord won't accept Golem as payment. People want common payment, which is why the tendency with forms of payment is to default to the minimal possible options. In international commerce, it's USD (used to be gold). In local commerce at a cashier, it's cash or card (both denominated in the local currency only). And the online gold standard is PayPal -- also denominated in your local fiat currency.

The fan out of utility tokens is diametrically opposed to the real world dynamic of transactions & accounting.

You cannot divorce the fact that it's a 'utility token' from the fact it's a medium of exchange.

And the more I'm researching this, the more and more it's looking like scam central. Filecoin raised $250M. Go on kickstarter -- the largest crowdfunding platform. If I read correctly, the highest funded item there -- the pebble watch -- raised $20M total. Also check out: Dead Coins.

This is now smelling completely off.
 
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LifeTransformer

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But this logic is wrong. It says: big businesses are investing in a space -> they must be doing it because they smell money -> if I invest in that space I'll get rich too -> if someone sees big businesses investing in a space, and reject that as a reason to enter it, it's due to stone-headedness.

Big business investing in a space is not a compelling reason to do so yourself. They have different reasons, and different ways of profiting, than an individual. They can adopt blockchain technology, and you can be invested in a blockchain technology, but gain nothing from it (or lose money) while they used it highly profitably to reduce their costs or boost their profit margins.

That's not what we're saying, at least not entirely. For certain projects in the blockchain space, there is absolutely going to be a need for a specific token to be used by a corporation.

Take file storage for an example. You mentioned the cloud above (pun not intended), but the cloud is expensive and as we've seen a lot of cloud based hacks recently. (Blockchains themselves are virtually impossible to hack).

There are a lot of projects in the file storage space, but let's make Storj the project in question for an example. Say IBM decides they want to make use of Storj, they are going to have to buy the STORJ token in order to use that blockchain. A big corporation becoming a larger user of a certain project will inevitably drive the demand for that token higher, and therefor your invested capital should also go up.

That all depends on the token economics of course, and just an example.

I'm less bullish on Ripple despite their partnerships because if the token velocity increases along with adoption, then that token will likely lose value rather than say Bitcoin which is mostly "HODLed" by people.

(Except recently where the big post-hype cycle sell off has been happening of course).

And then of course there's LTCM & co. And they were led by nobel-prize winning economists. Being done by big companies doesn't make an investment thesis correct.

There's a book on that I'm sure. Not familiar with their back story myself, but I'm willing to bet where they lost, someone won.

Then they can have other reasons to dabbling in a space. My question would be: what percentage of their capital is invested? I'm guessing a tiny fraction of a percent. That'd be a fairly cheap insurance policy of keeping their finger on the pulse in case there is something there.

So I'm not convinced, not because I can't be convinced, but because this isn't convincing.

What percentage does a big corporation spend on anything? Wouldn't you want to supply Apple with stationery if possible? I bet that's chump-change to their budget, but who knows how much they spend on that? (Probably a poor example in this times, but you probably know what I mean).

My conclusion is that concluding this is closed mindedness is projecting. Since I'm neither long or short on this, I have no skin in the game. Jumping to the conclusion that I'm set in an opinion could be pre-emptive accusation (he who said the rhyme did the crime).

If I get compelling indication of an investment play in this space, I may act on it. The value of being right is nothing compared to the value of getting rich: which is all I'm concerned with.

I have no idea what that first sentence means, makes little sense to me. I only said "you seem" to be set in your opinion.

I value the getting rich part over being right too. That's why I own Bitcoin despite thinking it's fundamentally flawed.
 

LifeTransformer

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And the more I'm researching this, the more and more it's looking like scam central. Filecoin raised $250M. Go on kickstarter -- the largest crowdfunding platform. If I read correctly, the highest funded item there -- the pebble watch -- raised $20M total.

Does this not illustrate a point that it is easier to exchange value using digital/blockchain based tokens than it is Fiat currency? Even with the help of major credit card processing companies and even PayPal?
 

GoGetter24

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There are a lot of projects in the file storage space, but let's make Storj the project in question for an example. Say IBM decides they want to make use of Storj, they are going to have to buy the STORJ token in order to use that blockchain. A big corporation becoming a larger user of a certain project will inevitably drive the demand for that token higher, and therefor your invested capital should also go up.
They won't though. They'll just pay Amazon in USD for AWS via ACH. It's faster, easier, better.

I get the feeling that projects like Storj are clever projects run by engineers, rather than profit projects run by businessmen. In what world is spreading out your storage needs over people's home laptops a more compelling business play than just click "more HDD space" in AWS? Who the hell wants other random people's crap sitting on their personal laptop for a few cents? On what planet are people thinking this is truly compelling tech? This is pets.com stuff, not x.com stuff.

Does this not illustrate a point that it is easier to exchange value using digital/blockchain based tokens than it is Fiat currency? Even with the help of major credit card processing companies and even PayPal?
By wishful thinking -- I'd say it more vividly illustrates a scam or tulip mania. At least those kickerstarter backers will get a cool wristwatch out of it.
 
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LifeTransformer

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They won't though. They'll just pay Amazon in USD for AWS via ACH. It's faster, easier, better.

I get the feeling that projects like Storj are clever projects run by engineers, rather than profit projects run by businessmen. In what world is spreading out your storage needs over people's home laptops a more compelling business play than just click "more HDD space" in AWS? Who the hell wants other random people's crap sitting on their personal laptop for a few cents? On what planet are people thinking this is truly compelling tech? This is pets.com stuff, not x.com stuff.


By wishful thinking -- I'd say it more vividly illustrates a scam or tulip mania. At least those kickerstarter backers will get a cool wristwatch out of it.

Yeah, and the data on AWS can be hacked, just two examples: Uber Discloses Year-Old AWS Data Breach, Exposing Millions of Users -- AWSInsider
Over 14 Million Verizon Customers' Data Exposed On Unprotected AWS Server

I can think of why they might want to migrate to a cheaper/more secure platform.

"Tulip mania" again? The easily reproducible, non scarce, deteriorating, naturally occurring plant. That major difference aside; There will be bubbles again and again (have you seen a complete list? There's a bubble of some sort every 2-5 years, dating back as far as you can imagine). Also, if we've had a "bubble" in the cryptocurrency market, it's probably over. The market cap dropping from $800b to $400b in the past 2 months has probably popped it.

By the way, I don't agree with the "99%" number, but there are plenty of projects that I'm sure will fail. But the same is true for any business is it not? ("One in 10 startups will be successful yadda yadda").
 

GoGetter24

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You should tell that to Sequoia Capital, Andreeson Horowitz, Union Square Ventures, Y Combinator and the dozen other major VC firms that have invested in Filecoin.
Argument from authority - Wikiquote is not a legitimate form of reasoning, no matter how often you do it. We are not having an argument if you're just going to keep doing it and then I have to keep repeating 2000, SegWay, Housing Bubble & banks, LTCM, and so on -- that would be pointless dual monologues.

Looking at the Filecoin white paper, it's interesting to note that it's not mentioning the symbol $ much. It calls AWS & co "silos", virtue signalling how much they believe in decentralization. But it doesn't explain the accounting of how using thousands of little harddrives spread out over many different networks is going to be more profitable for storage purposes than putting big ones next to each other connected by short wires.

It completely violates the power law of economic return. People aren't watching videos from each other, they're all connecting into YouTube and watching videos there. Hub and spoke. They don't piggyback off each other to access the internet, they connect to an ISP. Hub and spoke. Take it wider. People don't trade directly in cash with companies, we do it via banks. People don't fly direct from Timbuktu to Reykjavik, they go via the hubs.

And there are other reasons people like Sequoia capital and co would want to put up that (for them) chump change other than compelling investment play (take note of the flogging Buffet got for not appearing to follow the crowd in 2000, and maybe Sequoia needs to buy a pulse in that me). If you want to simplify it all to "Sequoia put money in that general space, I put money in that general space = I get rich", fine. Not my money.

Yeah, and the data on AWS can be hacked
The darknet markets are great examples of the arrogance of this. I don't think there's a single one of them that didn't get taken down by the Feds. They were all so clever, encrypting everything, using cryptocurrency, completely hack-proof. And then someone tricks someone into looking away while they stuff a USB drive into a port, and it's all over.
security.png


There's no difference. The fact AWS was hacked is more to do with the fact that people use it, than the superiority of blockchain cleverness. Nothing about this indicates blockchain is a compelling play if the purpose is to get rich.
 
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SquatchMan

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The darknet markets are great examples of the arrogance of this. I don't think there's a single one of them that didn't get taken down by the Feds. They were all so clever, encrypting everything, using cryptocurrency, completely hack-proof. And then someone tricks someone into looking away while they stuff a USB drive into a port, and it's all over.

Darknet market =/= a cryptocurrency or blockchain.

They're basically eBay with crypto as a means of exchange. I genuinely believe that you still do not understand the difference between cryptocurrency, blockchain, and a marketplace/exchange.

On that note:
AlphaBay got busted because the founder did not cover his tracks when setting up (using his personal email when paying for hosting amongst other stupid mistakes)

Silk Road had a similar slip up by it's founder in the beginning.

There are still plenty of darknet markets in existence.
 
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GoGetter24

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I genuinely believe that you still do not understand the difference between cryptocurrency, blockchain, and a marketplace/exchange.
All pro-crypto people in this thread understand the world on a much higher level than me, and are all quite keen to point out that my lack of support is just because "I still don't understand". I wish one day to be as wise as them.

But that'll be the last one. I came into this thread with a question, and I think it's been answered. I won't be saying I told you so when you're left with some bits on a disk and wondering why they aren't worth what they told you.

So that's that. I'll be looking for plays elsewhere.
 

SquatchMan

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All pro-crypto people in this thread understand the world on a much higher level than me, and are all quite keen to point out that my lack of support is just because "I still don't understand". I wish one day to be as wise as them.

I didn't say your lack of support was because you didn't understand. You clearly don't understand because you said a blatantly wrong statement.

This isn't a debate. A darknet market isn't a blockchain or a cryptocurrency. You're wrong and have too much of an ego to admit it.

EDIT: I thought you said no more ad hominem attacks?
 

LifeTransformer

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Looking at the Filecoin white paper, it's interesting to note that it's not mentioning the symbol $ much. It calls AWS & co "silos", virtue signalling how much they believe in decentralization. But it doesn't explain the accounting of how using thousands of little harddrives spread out over many different networks is going to be more profitable for storage purposes than putting big ones next to each other connected by short wires.

Why would they need to mention "$"? If you use Filecoin, you spend FILE (guessing the ticker symbol) and get paid in FILE. Maybe you want to store stuff and get paid for storing the data of others too? Maybe I/you wouldn't want $? Maybe you'd want to swap it for something like Ethereum?

It completely violates the power law of economic return. People aren't watching videos from each other, they're all connecting into YouTube and watching videos there. Hub and spoke. They don't piggyback off each other to access the internet, they connect to an ISP. Hub and spoke. Take it wider. People don't trade directly in cash with companies, we do it via banks. People don't fly direct from Timbuktu to Reykjavik, they go via the hubs.

Really? DTube <--- That is going to change things. YouTubers are going to be flocking to a decentralized platform if they continue to censor and/or remain in Control of the way people are getting paid on that platform.

Guess what technology that platform uses...

And there are other reasons people like Sequoia capital and co would want to put up that (for them) chump change other than compelling investment play (take note of the flogging Buffet got for not appearing to follow the crowd in 2000, and maybe Sequoia needs to buy a pulse in that me). If you want to simplify it all to "Sequoia put money in that general space, I put money in that general space = I get rich", fine. Not my money.

No idea what your point is here...

The darknet markets are great examples of the arrogance of this. I don't think there's a single one of them that didn't get taken down by the Feds. They were all so clever, encrypting everything, using cryptocurrency, completely hack-proof. And then someone tricks someone into looking away while they stuff a USB drive into a port, and it's all over.
security.png


There's no difference. The fact AWS was hacked is more to do with the fact that people use it, than the superiority of blockchain cleverness. Nothing about this indicates blockchain is a compelling play if the purpose is to get rich.

Most darknet markets themselves are centralized as far as I'm aware (Not interested in them). But you again seem to be confusing the central point of failure with blockchains/cryptocurrencies.

Steemit again provides a great example here, not too long ago the site "steemit.com" got battered by DDoS attacks, meaning that website itself wasn't working. But! The blockchain itself, and the rest of the steemit front ends (of which dtube is one of them) remained intact, meaning the underlying technology carried on regardless of the attack.

If Facebook sustained a similar attack, it would have been entirely f*cked. Do you not see the power behind that?
 
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Ben Adams

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All pro-crypto people in this thread understand the world on a much higher level than me, and are all quite keen to point out that my lack of support is just because "I still don't understand". I wish one day to be as wise as them.

It's sad because you're being sarcastic but this is the first true thing you've said in this entire thread.
 

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I won't be saying I told you so when you're left with some bits on a disk and wondering why they aren't worth what they told you.

So that's that. I'll be looking for plays elsewhere.

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I applaud your ability to suck people into this black hole, surprised so many fell into it, but it's no one's job here to convince you to invest in anything. This is just one of those things that will be proven over time. Right now, you either believe it'll pan out, or you don't, and you didn't do a good job of convincing me I'm on the wrong side.
 
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