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Web 3.0 (Ethereum) is happening, and most people have no idea what it even is.

Johnny Bravo

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I'm brand new to this forum so I'm not entirely sure if there is a search within thread option anywhere...

So if this is redundant, feel free to ignore it!

There is one platform however that you will be hearing a lot more about in the future that is really going to change the way we do things. ... Ethereum is a programmable blockchain, and this makes it a very robust platform.

Ethereum is a fantastic platform, but probably not the "Web 3.0" as advertised in the OP. EOS, on the other hand, has a very good chance of being this sort of platform.

In very broad, layman's terms, Bitcoin (and similar) was designed specifically as a currency. It is a single purpose technology and can accurately be described as a cryptocurrency. Ethereum is a smart contract platform which was NOT designed to be a currency. It was designed in order to run other programs (or dApps - Distributed Apps). Ethereum has it's own limitations, but is being pretty heavily utilized and has a lot more potential to grow, especially after the change to PoS. EOS can be compared roughly to Ethereum, but more aggressive. If Ethereum is an operating system which allows applications to run within its framework, EOS is the computer itself which allows an operating system to do its thing.

There are tons of great DLT projects out there and the list will continue to grow. If you are considering investing, think of it like the dot com bubble. DLT is simply a tool to make an already sound business idea more efficient.

Sláinte!
 
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Ginto

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Yes, most of these ICOs will fail, probably 99%. You have to pick the right ones.

Here is a tip, follow investments of seasoned investors and not some anonymous crypto guru.

Here is an example - Jim Breyer 40 yrs of investing experience, managing 3bil. Heavily invested in ethereum and a new player - VeChain. You can see the portfolio here: https://breyercapital.com/portfolio/
 

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It's an interesting topic, so may as well make my first post here.

I think cryptocurrencies are going to turn out to be a bust outside of what they've already shown promise in: an outlet for tulip mania, and criminal international e-commerce.

The concept is certainly very clever, but here are the things that are indicating the conclusion I've come to:

First, no barrier to entry whatsoever. There are infinite forms of computational proof of work schemes. The only thing giving any given one value is popularity. Bitcoin will one day be the Betamax to someone else's VHS, and then DVD, and so on.

On the other hand, the barrier to entry for gold, for instance, is being a scarce element. You cannot create a new element with the monetary utility of gold without breaking the laws of physics.

And the barrier to entry for a new fiat currency is a successful separatist rebellion.

This discrepancy is so stark that I think this is enough by itself to discredit it. If it cannot be a reasonably reliable store of value, it cannot be a money.

Secondly, no one is using it for general payments. I've yet to meet a single person in real life who's paid for anything with bitcoin.

It's primarily being used where the merchants cannot use standard payment processing but want something easier for e-commerce than cash -- i.e. contraband.

There is no compelling reason, no pain, that would indicate cryptocurrency for normal commerce. PayPal & Stripe have lower fees and much faster clearing than Bitcoin, the most popular CC.

Put simply, its only clear utility is for people in conflict with a state (without judgement on whether they or the state is the cause). Hiding wealth, storing savings safely in a hyperinflation / social breakdown, trading in contraband. Nothing indicates a compelling need for it in a functioning, developed, wealthy state, which is where most money is to be made anyway.

Thirdly, the volatility, speculation, poor convertability, and unenticing transaction costs render it useless. People fret over the relatively glacial volatility of forex. They aren't going to use something with the insane volatility of Bitcoin. Furthermore, they can't even buy/sell it at places like Travelex. You'd think it'd be the perfect monetary account for travelers. If you want to convert it to cash overseas you have to meet some guy off the internet in an alley.

Fourthly, no one can understand its value. People, even very smart people, cannot understand or accept its value even after reading the best beginners guides available multiple times. Contrast that with gold: it's pretty and scarce; or fiat: you have to use it by force of law. Very, very simple.

So my conclusion is that this can only be popular due to true believer tulip mania, to the extent it's not used in conflict with a state or states. The comedy of "ICO"s is a great way to make yourself poorer and someone else richer (unless you want to be one of the comedians yourself).

And furthermore, most of the talk of using "blockchain technology" for within companies, is nonsense. There is no compelling advantage over centralized databases. And even the one remaining possible edge case of using it for supply chain QA in places like China is not compelling. Ask any farmer. He doesn't fear public reputation loss generally. He fears the big supermarket chain rejecting his product. The alleged problem fix that blockchain will provide will fix automatically as consumers demand and expect better quality. It's concept is most compelling in a poor & dysfunctional country, where desperation encourages cheating, not a rich one.

I currently see no good reason to put time and money in anything related to the blockchain concept. Any money put in it just looks like gambling than investment in a compelling play, which strikes me as unwise.
 

Coalission

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I think cryptocurrencies are going to turn out to be a bust outside of what they've already shown promise in: an outlet for tulip mania, and criminal international e-commerce.

VEq9cfO.gif
 
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million$$$smile

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@GoGetter24

There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.
Ken Olsen 1977
Founder, Digital Equipment Corp.

We will never make a 32-bit operating system.

– Bill Gates, 1989

Spam will be a thing of the past in two years’ time.
– Bill Gates, 2004

Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.
– Sir Alan Sugar, 2005
Founder, Amstrad. Member of house of Lords, England

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." -- Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, inventor of Ethernet, 1995.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt. I think you could make available the Second Coming in a subscription model, and it might not be successful." -- Steve Jobs, in Rolling Stone, Dec. 3, 2003

"Apple is already dead." -- Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO, 1997

"There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States." -- T. Craven, FCC commissioner, 1961

ad nauseam...
 
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steelandchrome

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There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.
Ken Olsen 1977
Founder, Digital Equipment Corp.

We will never make a 32-bit operating system.

– Bill Gates, 1989

Spam will be a thing of the past in two years’ time.
– Bill Gates, 2004

Next Christmas the iPod will be dead, finished, gone, kaput.
– Sir Alan Sugar, 2005
Founder, Amstrad. Member of house of Lords, England

"I predict the Internet will soon go spectacularly supernova and in 1996 catastrophically collapse." -- Robert Metcalfe, founder of 3Com, inventor of Ethernet, 1995.

"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." -- Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943

"The subscription model of buying music is bankrupt. I think you could make available the Second Coming in a subscription model, and it might not be successful." -- Steve Jobs, in Rolling Stone, Dec. 3, 2003

"Apple is already dead." -- Nathan Myhrvold, former Microsoft CTO, 1997

"There is practically no chance communications space satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio service inside the United States." -- T. Craven, FCC commissioner, 1961

ad nauseam...
"I currently see no good reason to put time and money in anything related to the blockchain concept. Any money put in it just looks like gambling than investment in a compelling play, which strikes me as unwise."
-GoGetter24 2018

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GoGetter24

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"The Segway will be to the car what the car was to the horse and buggy."
- Dean Kamen, 2001

"I told you so."
- Warren Buffet, 2001

Gentlemen, we're all here because we're interested in getting rich.

The fact that you've responded to that with eye-rolling dismissal, rather than rebutting any of the points I've made, that the investment can only be defended in that way, does not bode well for this as a play.

Anyone who was considering investing in crypto-currency should note that the responses to a criticism speak even louder than than the criticism itself. Not looking good for this one.
 
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million$$$smile

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@GoGetter24

Secondly, no one is using it for general payments. I've yet to meet a single person in real life who's paid for anything with bitcoin.

https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@steemi...nies-that-accept-bitcoin-and-cryptocurrencies

Sir,
I can understand that you may think that cryptocurrencies or blockchain technologies is not going to be in our future. Fine. I am not going to try to dissuade you of your opinion.
But there ARE a large assortment of companies that are investing in this realm. Everyone from AMEX to Disney.
Have you Googled what companies and investors are investing in this technology? What countries (example Japan) actually consider them a form of legal tender?

I don't want to argue or try to change your opinion, though I am surprised at some of your reasons why it might not be here long term.

Anyway, welcome to the forum. We are all here to learn, grow and help each other.
Good luck on your road to the Fastlane!
 

Johnny Bravo

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It's an interesting topic, so may as well make my first post here.

Welcome!

GoGetter24 said:
I think cryptocurrencies are going to turn out to be a bust outside of what they've already shown promise in: an outlet for tulip mania, and criminal international e-commerce.

I've rebutted this elsewhere so I'll simply supply a link.

GoGetter24 said:
First, no barrier to entry whatsoever. ... This discrepancy is so stark that I think this is enough by itself to discredit it. If it cannot be a reasonably reliable store of value, it cannot be a money.

No barrier? I didn't realize computers, internet, and electricity were free. In fact, one of the biggest complaints against Bitcoin is that the PoW protocol utilizes the energy consumption of a small country. Looks like a pretty massive barrier to me.

Furthermore, there is no such thing as a store of value. Nothing on earth is a store of value because value is entirely subjective. If an asteroid made of gold suddenly landed on the earth the gold bugs of the world would be crying themselves to sleep because the value of gold would plummet immediately and dramatically.

GoGetter24 said:
Secondly, no one is using it for general payments. I've yet to meet a single person in real life who's paid for anything with bitcoin.

I know dozens of people (including myself) who have used Bitcoin for all sorts of purchases. That said, Bitcoin is not a very good example of what a good cryptocurrency should look like. Monero, Zcash, Dash, and many others are much better examples. Dash is doing today what Bitcoin claimed it would someday be able to do (but never has). It also has the privilege of being used in about two dozen countries around the world quite extensively and I know of one guy who uses nothing BUT Dash.

GoGetter24 said:
It's primarily being used where the merchants cannot use standard payment processing but want something easier for e-commerce than cash -- i.e. contraband. There is no compelling reason, no pain, that would indicate cryptocurrency for normal commerce.

And here is the source of your ignorance. Would you believe that there are roughly 2 billion people in this world who have no reliable access to a bank? This means that 2 billion people (law of large numbers) have a very real need for something outside the "normal" payment system that people in advanced nations take for granted. They are typically called the unbanked and they potentially represent one of the fastest growing sectors of our society. Your quick determination of nefarious activity is entirely unfounded and probably based on your lack of knowledge in this area.

GoGetter24 said:
Nothing indicates a compelling need for it in a functioning, developed, wealthy state, which is where most money is to be made anyway. ... And furthermore, most of the talk of using "blockchain technology" for within companies, is nonsense. There is no compelling advantage over centralized databases.

Tell that to the largest financial institutions in the world. Walmart, FedEx, IBM, Microsoft, JP Morgan, Renault, HSBC, Air France KLM, Moller-Maersk, Eastman Kodak, and dozens upon dozens other (57% of major corporations according to a recent survey) are all moving into this field.

Perhaps you need to crack a book.
 

GoGetter24

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Would you believe that there are roughly 2 billion people in this world who have no reliable access to a bank? This means that 2 billion people (law of large numbers) have a very real need for something outside the "normal" payment system that people in advanced nations take for granted.
The most likely way this will be rectified is, like everywhere else, they gain reliable access to banks as their economy grows. It is more likely (and actually happening) that they will use mobile banking & centralized services (such as Alipay/Weepay).

Furthermore, there is no such thing as a store of value. Nothing on earth is a store of value because value is entirely subjective.
Best ask wikipedia to delete this page then: Store of value - Wikipedia . Everyone else is wrong.

No barrier? I didn't realize computers, internet, and electricity were free. In fact, one of the biggest complaints against Bitcoin is that the PoW protocol utilizes the energy consumption of a small country. Looks like a pretty massive barrier to me.
No barrier to making a cryptocurrency. No reason I should choose one over any other existing or future ones. All use cryptographic proof of computational work. There may be an artificial fixed stock of bitcoins (and purely by the will of its current rulemakers), but there is no fixed stock of cryptocurrency generally.

Witness the froth: ICO Alert - The only complete list of ICOs, token sales, and crowdsales. Calendar of active and upcoming Initial Coin Offerings.

Perhaps you need to crack a book.
I'd rather write and sell one. "Blockchain will Dominate the 21st Century: How to Invest in Cryptocurrency and Get Rich".

Sell shovels in a gold rush.

Tell that to the largest financial institutions in the world. Walmart, FedEx, IBM, Microsoft, JP Morgan, Renault, HSBC, Air France KLM, Moller-Maersk, Eastman Kodak, and dozens upon dozens other (57% of major corporations according to a recent survey) are all moving into this field.
Proof of nothing. Interest rates are pretty low: they may as well. I can just as soon list the companies who invested in sub-prime. Plenty of big names among them.

Even Isaac Newton lost his shirt on his century's version (South Sea Company).
 
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GlobalWealth

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. PayPal & Stripe have lower fees and much faster clearing than Bitcoin, the most popular CC.

.

PayPal just filed a Blockchain patent.

Stripe offers cryptocurrency payment solutions.

I'll take their think tank over yours.

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First, no barrier to entry whatsoever. There are infinite forms of computational proof of work schemes. The only thing giving any given one value is popularity. Bitcoin will one day be the Betamax to someone else's VHS, and then DVD, and so on.
.

This was my first indication that you speak from literally zero understanding.

For even the most basic mining operation, you are looking at 10's of thousands of dollars in investment.

I doubt you could build anything even remotely profitable without 100k to start.



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SquatchMan

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That was in 2001. Buffett would have been pretty well off he'd gone in on Amazon, but he didn't....

"I was wrong on Google and "too dumb" on Amazon"
-Warren Buffett, 2017

Will you be saying you were "too dumb" on crypto like Buffett on Amazon?

Note: Buffett is a guy that literally doesn't use a computer and actively avoids tech stocks because he doesn't understand the business model. Not exactly a great source on technology.
 
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Coalission

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The fact that you've responded to that with eye-rolling dismissal, rather than rebutting any of the points I've made, that the investment can only be defended in that way, does not bode well for this as a play.

Anyone who was considering investing in crypto-currency should note that the responses to a criticism speak even louder than than the criticism itself. Not looking good for this one.

The eye-rolling isn't a dismissal, but a "here we go again". The "investment" doesn't need to be defended, you're just one of those people who will end up being on the consumer end vs the early adopter and investment side.

Back in the day, you likely would have been critical of the internet "hype" as well, for being a haven for criminals and pedophiles, because "I don't know anyone who uses the internet", etc. Fine, don't invest in the internet, fight it all you want, but you WILL be ordering stuff from Amazon.com and handling most of your banking online eventually.

The funny thing is, most of your points aren't completely absurd, they just come from a lack of knowledge of the space. Some people (like myself) had similar initial gut reactions to the idea of cryptocurrencies and blockchains, but the difference is I educated myself further on the subject. You took your initial gut reaction and ran with it, and now that's just your new opinion on the subject for the time being, until eventually every company around you shoves it down your throat, every person around you uses it and wonders why they can't just pay you like they can everyone else so you become that annoying person who holds out on new technology until the bitter end (Why can't I just email you, I have to call you? Why can't I just call you, I have to mail you a letter? I can't just email this to you, I have to fax it? I can't just send you $20, I have to walk into a building and give all of my information and open this "bank" account thing? I have to use one of Paypal's old legacy accounts that were connected to these bank things?).

By that time, it may be too late to invest in the space, and you'll constantly hear people wishing they were around during the "blockchain boom", but hey, you stuck to your guns and that's something to be proud of. For the rest of us who don't hate innovation and support the crazy people who think they can change the world, and maybe want to become filthy rich along the way by betting on them, just let us be.
 

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When you explain how credit cards were able to overcome all the obstacles you pointed out for bitcoin
Are you saying that the long string of numbers from Amazon is a "store of value," but the long string of numbers defining a crypto token are not?
The former are credit, the latter is a cryptographic key. The credit is a promise to pay in a common, familiar base currency, backed either by physics or state force. A cryptographic token has arbitrary current popularity based value.

But all of this is besides the point, and so is the rest of the inevitability faith that's been presented by others as rebuttal. Pointing out that prior technology X was dismissed but succeeded, is completely irrelevant. It's selection bias with defensive intent. It is no rebuttal, hindsight is 20 20, and I'm not interested in that. I'm interesting in hearing why this particular technology is a compelling play, versus any other opportunity. I suspect the primary reason people are so into it is because at least it's an opportunity. What else is hot right now? Not everyone's got the capital to make rockets that land themselves. But it's not stacking up.

Will you be saying you were "too dumb" on crypto like Buffett on Amazon?
If it actually catches on, yes.
 

GoGetter24

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You took your initial gut reaction and ran with it, and now that's just your new opinion on the subject for the time being
Not really. My initial opinion was that it was going to be a good thing for the world, due to the stark reality of developed-nation government debt. As I saw it, there was no possible way (still isn't) that the US or Japan would repay their government debts, nor that the EU (and thus EUR) would remain intact, and the obvious result of this would be a currency race to the bottom. Bitcoin & co would offer a defensive mechanism against that, that would be easier than burying chunks of metal.

But actually stuff like "ICO"s is triggering the bullshit detector.

The fact that this investment thesis is being defended primarily with a tone of forgone conclusion, that we're the smart guys for being on board and you're just going to be left behind, is indicative.

I suspect a lot of guys are going to be left with some data on their hard-drive that they were told was worth thousands of dollars, but has actually ended up its typical value.

Also out of interest, any of those who've invested in this technology: has your investment extended beyond simply trading dollars for cryptocurrencies? Has anyone invested in equity in cryptocurrency plays?
 
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Coalission

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Not really. My initial opinion was that it was going to be a good thing for the world, due to the stark reality of developed-nation government debt. As I saw it, there was no possible way (still isn't) that the US or Japan would repay their government debts, nor that the EU (and thus EUR) would remain intact, and the obvious result of this would be a currency race to the bottom. Bitcoin & co would offer a defensive mechanism against that, that would be easier than burying chunks of metal.

Ok, and what changed? To clear it up, are you saying Bitcoin will fail? All cryptocurrencies? Blockchain? These are all very different arguments. It's the difference between arguing Hotmail will fail, email will fail, and the internet will fail.

The fact that this investment thesis is being defended primarily with a tone of forgone conclusion, that we're the smart guys for being on board and you're just going to be left behind, is indicative.

I suspect a lot of guys are going to be left with some data on their hard-drive that they were told was worth thousands of dollars, but has actually ended up its typical value.

Your thesis is also being defended with a tone of foregone conclusion, that cryptocurrency will end up as worthless data on a hard drive. Does that make you wrong?

Also out of interest, any of those who've invested in this technology: has your investment extended beyond simply trading dollars for cryptocurrencies? Has anyone invested in equity in cryptocurrency plays?

I have, but only because the two companies didn't offer a token instead and only offered equity to accredited investors. I prefer tokens. Don't dig or this will turn into yet another different argument about tokens vs. equity.
 

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Your thesis is also being defended with a tone of foregone conclusion, that cryptocurrency will end up as worthless data on a hard drive. Does that make you wrong?
I said I suspect. Yet to hear anything to allay that suspicion.

Don't dig or this will turn into yet another different argument about tokens vs. equity.
Well I think it's a fair component to bring up. At least with equity you could be selling shovels (or jeans, more famously) to the gold miners. Any argument about the best way to get rich is surely relevant here.

If you disagree, you're in the minority.
Who cares. Following a crowd is no virtue by itself.

Yup. Just like the US dollar or any other fiat currency.
No, as mentioned, the barrier to entry for a new fiat currency is a successful separatist rebellion.
 

Coalission

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Yes. I actually prefer equity versus token investments. Token investments won't endure as an asset class, in my opinion.

Well I think it's a fair component to bring up. At least with equity you could be selling shovels (or jeans, more famously) to the gold miners. Any argument about the best way to get rich is surely relevant here.

To me, tokens and ICOs are simply liquid angel investments. A lot of angel investments are based on a concept, not fully fleshed-out ideas and working products, similar to a lot of these crypto companies ICOing. The difference is, with angel investments in this almighty "equity", you have to wait a long time for liquidity. You either get bought out, or you IPO and then basically get what you get with ICOs, shares/tokens. Anyone think AMZN or TSLA getting bought out anytime soon? No, you own that equity with the hopes the company keeps growing and you can sell it to someone else later on for much higher, same with my tokens.

Lots of tokens nowadays come with governance baked in based on the amount of tokens you own, so you can eventually vote on any changes to the protocol, etc. so there's your "voting rights", and if you don't IPO with equity but get bought out early instead, your return is similar or a lot of times will be less than what ICOs bring.

With the tokens you also have liquidity early on so if the company changes or goes in a different direction, you can buy and sell as you please. You can sell your Uber tokens right after the #DeleteUber and CEO controversy and buy back in cheaper, or sell your SpaceX tokens right after the first failures, then buy back in whenever you want, instead of sitting there with your equity wishing you had some liquidity.
 
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Ginto

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Wait, 99% of ICOs are going to fail? Over what period of time?

Just look at the dot com bubble. Basically something like that. However, big players will survive. Think bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin and a few others that have huge partnerships.
 

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Maybe I‘m missing something, but I‘ve yet to see anyone discount @GoGetter24 s points in an ad rem fashion instead of either ad hominem or going „the BIG companies all do it so it MUST be right“.
Having no idea about crypto and wanting to learn, I‘m curious to read a well-defined and -researched rebuttal which doesn’t rely on the above crutches. I‘m waiting.


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4symmetry

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Also, what’s the deal with comparing credit cards 50y ago to cryptocurrency? Besides both being „new technology“, how on earth is it the same thing? #cluelessiguess


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Coalission

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Maybe I‘m missing something, but I‘ve yet to see anyone discount @GoGetter24 s points in an ad rem fashion instead of either ad hominem or going „the BIG companies all do it so it MUST be right“.
Having no idea about crypto and wanting to learn, I‘m curious to read a well-defined and -researched rebuttal which doesn’t rely on the above crutches. I‘m waiting.

The 36 other pages didn't do it for you?
 

4symmetry

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The 36 other pages didn't do it for you?

I read them, and well: no. As stated above. Shouting more loudly and defending something more violently doesn’t make his points invalid. Maybe I‘m just dumb and unrefined though, in which case, please educate me. Properly.
 

Coalission

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I read them, and well: no. As stated above. Shouting more loudly and defending something more violently doesn’t make his points invalid. Maybe I‘m just dumb and unrefined though, in which case, please educate me. Properly.

All of his points, almost to the tee, have already been discussed in the thread (hence the gif), so no, I don't think you read all the pages.
 

Coalission

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Maybe I‘m just dumb and unrefined though, in which case, please educate me.

Also, not sure if you're insinuating that I think only dumb people don't understand this or don't agree, but that's certainly not the case. Even Bill Gates recently came out with some ridiculous statement recently about cryptocurrencies killing people because they're used in illicit transactions or something like that (Ban the US Dollar! It's guilty of murder!). Lots of extremely smart people on both sides of the fence. I just think it's a matter of not taking the time to dig deeper, or choosing to remain closed-minded on the subject.
 

RobD88

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You know...I've seen a lot of back and forth on this thread both good and bad about crypto. It reminds me of a never ending political argument between "friends" on Facebook.

I would think there is enough evidence on crypto to make any true, curious entrepreneur at least take a look at it, investigate and make an educated decision on whether it fits their personal business strategy. If it doesn't then great move on. Why argue about its merits or downfalls?

There isn't a one of us here that has the same exact business strategy or idea on how to bring value to the market. The one thing we do have in common is that we don't want to live in the slowlane. For those of you who support crypto more power to you! For those that don't more power to you too!

For those like me...thanks to both for making me think and interest me enough to take a look. I may not ever get directly involved with it but at least I am better educated than I was yesterday.
 
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ADR

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Thank you for posting. Never heard of ethereum before until now. Did some research on it and looks good.
I know someone that invests and mines Etherium. They say its very profitable. I haven't personally dealt with it.
 

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