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The definitive guide for MFG/QC issues and what you ecommerce sourcers and inventors must know

Niptuck MD

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Hey @Arun Siva how do you approach pricing when you get quotes? Do you always presume there is room to move? Is it worth making a small <10% saving if it has a potential impact on the working relationship?

so regarding this, after you have done your DUE DILIGENCE (asking probing about every single facet of what your production pieces entail) and gotten other quotes from other reputable suppliers, you can negotiate accordingly. ideally you want to facilitate a long term ongoing relationship. This is a challenging part; most chinese warehouses may fool you to believe htat they are in it for the "long run" however anything can happen; they may fall under, they may have x y z reasoning for slips in quality down the road; you have to do ALL of this research up front; if you dont have time, pay someone to probe for you. it will save you thousands later on.... metrics can be fudged these days, however word of mouth cannot go away and will always remain your best source for finding the ideal suppliers/manufacturers. A trip to the physical location etc will give you the most comprehensive idea (90% of info you need to pull the trigger) and then yea, obviously you negotiate for your terms and then maybe cajole them that it is a performance/quality based assessment in future pricing to keep things going smoothly.
 
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SYK

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so regarding this, after you have done your DUE DILIGENCE (asking probing about every single facet of what your production pieces entail) and gotten other quotes from other reputable suppliers, you can negotiate accordingly. ideally you want to facilitate a long term ongoing relationship.

Thanks for the intel! My preferred supplier who I have done months' worth for due diligence and have gone through full DFM with is coming in at between 10-40% more per unit depending on quantity vs. my secondary supplier who while cheaper are a smaller operation and dealing with them hasn't been as smooth from a communications perspective. Plan is to use the pricing of supplier 2 to negotiate with supplier 1.
 

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Plan is to use the pricing of supplier 2 to negotiate with supplier 1.

Big manufacturers do this day in and day out.


Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
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Niptuck MD

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Any advice on how to go about it for a small manufacturer? ;)
Just approach them in a manner that you want it to seem like you are doing them a favor by tendering your contract. You mean more to them then they do to you.

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Just approach them in a manner that you want it to seem like you are doing them a favor by tendering your contract. You mean more to them then they do to you.

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Thanks - appreciate it!
 
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Niptuck MD

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Thanks - appreciate it!

You also want to make sure that as your business grows, they will continue to work with you maybe not in pricing but in other facets (think incoterms even maybe instead of FOB you can get them to DAT if your negotiations are apt.)

EXW : EX WORKS, named place of delivery. The seller makes the goods available at its premises. This term places the maximum obligation on the buyer and minimum obligations on the seller. The Ex Works term is often used when making an initial quotation for the sale of goods without any costs included. EXW means that a seller has the goods ready for collection at his premises (works, factory, warehouse, plant) on the date agreed upon.The seller doesn't load the goods on collecting vehicles and doesn't clear them for export. If the seller does load the good, he does so at buyer's risk and cost.

FCA : FREE CARRIER, named place of delivery. The seller hands over the goods, cleared for export, into the disposal of the first carrier (named by the buyer) at the named place. The seller pays for carriage to the named point of delivery, and risk passes when the goods are handed over to the first carrier.

FAS : FREE ALONG SIDE SHIP, named port of shipment. The seller must place the goods alongside the ship at the named port. The seller must clear the goods for export. Suitable only for maritime transport but not for multimodal sea transport in containers.

FOB : FREE ON BOARD,named port of shipment. The seller must load themselves the goods on board the vessel nominated by the buyer. Cost and risk are divided when the goods are actually on board of the vessel. The seller must clear the goods for export. The term is applicable for maritime and inland waterway transport only but not for multimodal sea transport in containers. The buyer must instruct the seller the details of the vessel and the port where the goods are to be loaded, and there is no reference to, or provision for, the use of a carrier or forwarder.

CFR : COST AND FREIGHT, named port of destination. Seller must pay the costs and freight to bring the goods to the port of destination. However, risk is transferred to the buyer once the goods are loaded on the vessel (this rule is new!). Maritime transport only and Insurance for the goods is not included.


CIF: COST, INSURANCE AND FREIGHT, named port of destination. Exactly the same as CFR except that the seller must in addition procure and pay for the insurance. Maritime transport only.

CPT : CARRIAGE PAID TO, named place of destination. The seller pays for carriage. Risk transfers to buyer upon handing goods over to the first carrier.

CIP : CARRIAGE AND INSURANCE PAID TO, named place of destination). The containerized transport/multimodal equivalent of CIF. Seller pays for carriage and insurance to the named destination point, but risk passes when the goods are handed over to the first carrier.

DAT : DELIVERED AT TERMINAL, named terminal at port or place of destination). Seller pays for carriage to the terminal, except for costs related to import clearance, and assumes all risks up to the point that the goods are unloaded at the terminal.

DAP : DELIVERED AT PLACE, named place of destination. Seller pays for carriage to the named place, except for costs related to import clearance, and assumes all risks prior to the point that the goods are ready for unloading by the buyer.

DDP : DELIVERED DUTY PAID, named place of destination. Seller is responsible for delivering the goods to the named place in the country of the buyer, and pays all costs in bringing the goods to the destination including import duties and taxes. This term places the maximum obligations on the seller and minimum obligations on the buyer.
 

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For more manufacturing pointers here is one on machining parts for whatever you are designing.

Machinists’ Tips For Achieving Precision Small Metal Parts
At Metal Cutting, we like to say we can machine any part. And it is absolutely true that we have a team of experienced machinists who are highly skilled in using an array of CNC machining equipment to produce complex, precision metal components. The question always is, can we machine a part efficiently — in a way makes the part cost-effective both for our customers and for us? Below are some common issues to keep in mind when considering machining and its cost.


Avoiding “Back To The Drawing Board”
One of the challenges in CNC machining services is often not the process itself, but preparing to do the work — specifically, making sure machinist and design engineer are on the same page. As machinists, when we receive a drawing we look at it to determine, first of all, if the part can be made, then how it is going to be made and what attributes are important for the type of machine we’ll be using to make the part. Realistically, not everything that is on paper can be made on a machine, so it is helpful if engineers do some research before they do their drawings, to make sure their vision is in harmony with CNC machining capabilities and the equipment that their vendor (such as Metal Cutting) has available.

For example, a design engineer might provide a very thorough drawing, showing every step that needs to be done to produce a part. However, a closer look might reveal that not all of the steps can be accomplished using the same discipline; for instance, we may be able to do seven out of ten steps on a lathe, but two other steps would need to be done using EDM and a final step would require an additional process from an outside vendor. These added steps and a secondary process from a third-party vendor would all have an impact on cost.

More Steps May Be Needed
A common challenge in CNC machining — one that we handle every day here at Metal Cutting, where we specialize in very small precision components — is the deburring of parts that have extremely small attributes. A case in point is a part that appears to be the size of a pencil in a drawing but that in actuality, when you look at the specifications and scale, turns out to be the size of a pinhead. With a part having such small dimensions, it’s difficult to physically get into tiny spaces within the part; that is where the addition of a secondary process such as electropolishing would be necessary to ensure that the part is burr-free.

Sometimes, stumbling blocks appear when you least expect them. A good example is a high-pressure coolant fitting that one of our customers needed. Our Swiss-style automatic lathe was perfectly suited to the part — however, we lacked an extra tool for the back spindle. As a result, a secondary process was required to add the necessary threading. While it only added about 30 seconds (per part) to the entire operation, it would have been more efficient to complete the part in a single process, from solid bar stock to finished fitting.

Simple Features May Require Complex Machining
Of course, sometimes the little issues in CNC machining DO occur somewhere within the process itself. A good example is when we produced a part for a cathode ray tube — a project that required a lot of demanding ID work. It involved taking a solid piece of metal and machining it into a part that looked like two separate tubes joined at the center by a solid plate. The job required not only removing 98% of the mass of the part, but also drilling a burr-free center hole that would join the two asymmetrical ID cavities. This hole needed to have a 0.020” (0.5 mm) diameter but with a concentricity that referenced the overall OD datum to 0.0002″ (0.005 mm). While creating the hole — making sure it was dead center and the correct size — was challenging, once we figured out the best technique to use, it was not that difficult. Instead, the trickiest task was trying to bore out the major ID without breaking the tools or having the boring bars wear out.

Similarly, another project required us to take a solid and turn it into a very thin-walled tube with a scooped end. While tubes are so commonplace at Metal Cutting that we cut them every day, here the difficulty was holding the part while maintaining its roundness; not distorting the OD, with a tube wall only 0.0025” (0.0635 mm) thick; and deburring the part inside and out.

Material Matters
In CNC machining services, the choice of material is another critical consideration. For instance, we might look at a drawing and initially think it is a great part to machine, but on closer examination we might discover the engineer wants to make the part out of tungsten — a material that not everyone can machine well. Even for Metal Cutting, if the drawing specified using a CNC mill, lathe, or Swiss-style screw machine, it might be very challenging to finish the part exactly the way the customers wants it, making it more likely that the tungsten part should be ground rather than machined. Or, an engineer might specify making a small tube from a solid piece of 304 stainless steel — a very popular material known for its corrosion resistance, among other beneficial traits. However, SS304 is very tough and burrs don’t break off very easily; therefore, it might not be the best choice for a very small tube that needs a burr-free finish.

 

Niptuck MD

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Just a primer on what questions you all should be asking potential suppliers (domestic and international)

1. What are my payment terms and are they negotiable? One of the primary ways Frye sustained his business was by negotiating terms with his vendors. While payments for invoices are often due within 30 days, you can talk to your vendor about getting 60 or 90 days. Receiving a discount if you pay in advance should also be part of that discussion.



2. What will my total costs be? While a supplier might give you a quote for the cost of a product or materials, be sure to ask about other fees;
For example, will you have to pay delivery fees, fuel surcharges or restocking charges for returns? Have suppliers go back to the contract and identify any line item that is going to cost you money

3. Can you give me a liability insurance certificate? Your suppliers should provide written proof that they have adequate liability insurance in the event that their products or parts malfunction. Get a new copy of the liability insurance certificate each year to make sure the policy is being renewed

4. Are you going to sell direct? If you're a distributor buying a finished product, you want to make sure your supplier doesn't sell it directly to the end user at such a sharply discounted rate that you can't compete. Sometimes manufacturers will use distributors to help get their brand established, then cut them out of the picture. It's kind of the cardinal sin of supply chain if a manufacturer jumps directly to the end user


5. Can I have a guaranteed sell-through?
You don't want to get stuck with a finished product that flops or the parts and raw materials for a product that doesn't sell. Talk to your suppliers about their return policies. You want to negotiate a guaranteed sell-through, which gives you the opportunity to return unsold products or materials, whether for credit or cash.

6. What happens if materials don't arrive? It's inevitable that orders will sometimes arrive late. But what happens then? You want to find out whether your suppliers will offer a discount for goods that don't arrive on time or pay for goods they didn't deliver and you had to get from another source

7. What is my expected gross margin? If you're a distributor, ask the manufacturer how much you should expect to make selling particular products. For example, if your company generally averages a 32 percent gross margin and your supplier says you should be getting only 25 percent on its products,


8. Under what circumstance might prices change? You need to be prepared for suppliers to spring price increases on you. Ask them what determines a change in price. Is it tied to inflation or an industry index? If prices go up, how much notice will you receive? Conversely, if a supplier's own costs go down, will your price go down, too?

9. Do you have a volume rebate? Often suppliers offer incentives. You want to ask about discounts you could be eligible for. If you agree on a certain purchasing goal and reach it, find out if you can receive a rebate

10. When do I take ownership of the product? Does the product you ordered become yours as soon as it's delivered or after a certain grace period? You want your supplier to give you time to inspect goods and ensure they are in proper condition. Also if possible include a delivery and inspection clause in your contract that allows three to five days to check out an order before taking full ownership.
 
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Sorry its been awhile;

Today we will target Non conformances. These are parts and product issued to you from your respective supplier(s) that do not meet your specs;

A system for controlling nonconformities is, by its very nature, defensive. Its purpose is to contain nonconformities and prevent them from reaching customers. Implementing a great system won't make an organization world-class. On the other hand, a poor system can cause very serious problems, and possibly even lead to the organization's demise. Therefore, it makes sense to construct an effective system that everybody will use and understand.

ISO 9001:2000 leaves most requirements for controlling nonconformities unchanged from earlier revisions. Despite this, much confusion exists about the full range and scope of control.

What is a nonconforming product?

First, it may be useful to define exactly what a nonconforming product is. For such a product to exist, one or more of the following conditions must be present:

Formal verification activities. By definition, nonconforming products result from verification, inspection or test activities. If these don't exist at a particular stage of product realization, then nonconforming products don't exist either. Organizations shouldn't abuse this by claiming they're not performing verification when they really are. Formal verification activities are very easily recognized by auditors. More important, an organization is playing the business version of Russian roulette when it tries to circumvent nonconforming product procedures for the sake of convenience.

Removing a product from the material flow or product realization process . If a product's condition is such that it can be handled in the normal production flow, then the organization may elect to handle the product outside its nonconforming product procedures. This only works if there are formal verification activities that take place downstream in the production process.

Operating conditions intended to produce conforming products. If process conditions aren't intended to produce conforming products, then the organization may handle the results of these processes outside its nonconforming product procedures. An example might be a production line that unavoidably produces a certain amount of start-up scrap. The scrap is simply part of getting the process up to normal operating conditions. The organization could elect to handle this product outside of its procedures for nonconforming products, especially when the scrap or waste in no way resembles conforming product. Trouble arises when the scrap or waste looks exactly like conforming product, as it does in many industries, such as chemical manufacturing. In these cases, potential misidentification outweighs other factors and makes nonconforming product procedures a necessity.

Risk to the organization . Regardless of any other considerations, an organization can decide that the business risk or potential liability is great enough to treat products as nonconforming at any particular stage of the process. Regardless of ISO 9001:2000 requirements, this is the category that matters most when deciding if something is nonconforming.

Even given these guidelines, an organization may discover a considerable amount of gray area regarding what is or isn't nonconforming product. This is only natural and a reflection of the real-life complexities of business. The organization must look objectively at its own operations, analyze its unique risk factors and decide what will be included within its system for nonconforming products. Some situations will be quite obvious, and others won't. As a last resort, the organization can always contact its registrar for an interpretation. But, remember, these interpretations are only opinions, and common sense should always prevail.

Identifying nonconforming products

The first requirement for nonconforming products in ISO 9001:2000 states, "The organization shall ensure that product which does not conform to product requirements is identified and controlled to prevent its unintended use or delivery." The two key words here are "identification" and "control." Let's address identification first.

Simply put, an organization must identify products that don't conform to requirements. This is an extension of the requirement for identifying all products by suitable means throughout product realization. Everything must be identified, period. The standard, however, doesn't prescribe any particular methods of identifying nonconforming products. Indeed, it can take many forms, all of which have their place:

Tags, signs or stickers affixed to the product

Labeled bins, boxes and bags

Remarks or descriptions written directly on the product

Tape or ribbon wrapped around the product

Paint spots or other coded markings on the product

Electronic identification, often by means of a barcode affixed to the product

Storing the product in specially marked areas



The organization is responsible for deciding which forms of identification are most appropriate for its manner of operations. No universal conventions exist for what nonconforming identification should look like. Is a green "rejected" tag OK? Sure, if that's what the organization wants to use. How about the word "crappy" scrawled in crayon on the product? No problem. The identification system needn't be conventional. What's important is that it's effective and understood by users. One or two interviews with employees will usually indicate if an identification system is working.

Controlling nonconforming products

Control is the next issue that the standard requires organizations to address, and it actually encompasses a large category of activities:

Establishing special handling requirements

Segregating from conforming products

Securing in locked or protected areas

Establishing documented procedures

Defining chain of command for the documented procedures

Training employees on procedures

Defining timeframes for taking action

Defining dispositions

Recording nonconformities

Connecting process to the corrective/preventive action system



In other words, "control" summarizes all the methods that lead to two desired outcomes: preventing nonconforming products from reaching the customer and eliminating the root cause of nonconforming products. Identification is actually a component of control, although the standard treats it separately. The specific means of control used by an organization will be described in a documented procedure.

Documenting procedure

The next requirement stipulated by ISO 9001:2000 is, "The controls and related responsibilities and authorities for dealing with nonconforming product shall be defined in a documented procedure." This requirement is self-explanatory.

Try to make this procedure simple and concise. How complex is your system for controlling nonconforming products? Probably not very. Ensure that the documented procedure is equally uncomplicated. The organization might consider using graphic explanations, such as flow diagrams, to make the procedure more intuitive and user-friendly.

Responsibilities and authorities must be defined clearly in the documented procedure for each stage of control. Consider at least the following issues within the procedure:

Who can identify nonconforming products?

Who can move or handle nonconforming products?

Who can authorize disposition of nonconforming products?

Who can carry out the disposition?



These responsibilities and authorities should be addressed in a no-nonsense manner, and the persons who have responsibilities and authorities within the system should receive appropriate training. Defined responsibilities and authorities are useless if nobody knows about them.
 

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Dispositioning nonconforming products

ISO 9001:2000 next addresses dispositioning of nonconforming products. "The organization shall deal with nonconforming product by one or more of the following ways: a) by taking action to eliminate the detected nonconformity; b) by authorizing its use, release or acceptance under concession by a relevant authority and, where applicable, by the customer; and c) by taking action to preclude its original intended use or application."

Simply stated, dispositioning means deciding what to do with nonconforming product. ISO 9001:2000 offers three possible dispositions; let's examine each individually.

Taking action to eliminate the detected nonconformity. The key word here is "eliminate." The product will maintain its basic identity as a product, but the nonconformity will be eliminated. This can occur in a variety of ways:

* By repairing . This includes actions that make the product functional although it doesn't conform perfectly to the original requirements. Such a product may not carry the same warranty as first-quality products, for instance.

* By reworking. Actions that make the product conform to the original requirements. In the customers' eyes, this product is exactly the same as a first-quality conforming product.

* By reprocessing . Sending the product back through the transformation process. This is done in many continuous process industries, such as chemicals and plastics.



By authorizing its use, release or acceptance under concession by a relevant authority and, where applicable, by the customer. In this case, the product still doesn't meet requirements. Nothing has been done to eliminate the nonconformity or alter the product's quality or performance. However, somebody has decided to use, release or accept the product anyway. If a product is nonconforming according to the organization's internal specifications but acceptable according to the customer's specifications, then a concession can be issued by the organization. However, if the product is nonconforming according to the customer's specifications, then the concession can only come from the customer.

The term "concession" may cause some confusion. It's nothing more than an agreement to use, release or accept a product. Concessions are always recorded; otherwise, they're worthless. If no record of the concession exists, then the organization has nothing to stand behind in the case of later disputes. Moreover, ISO 9001:2000 requires concessions to be recorded.

Concessions normally include the following details:

* The condition or quality level that has been accepted

* The quantity of product that is covered under the concession

* The person who has authorized the concession, including a signature, if

possible

* The date and time the concession was granted



These could be recorded on the original sales order, the customer's purchase order, internal quality assurance records or other relevant documentation. Regardless of where and how the concession is recorded, the important thing is that it's clear and unambiguous.



By taking action to preclude its original intended use or application. This disposition can lead to a number of different actions. Ultimately, the product isn't going to be used or applied as it was originally intended. This normally occurs through one of the following actions:

* Scrapping. This action that actually gets rid of the product, such as tossing it into a dumpster.

* Recycling. The product is sent to an outside party who can recycle the product or its components into something usable

* Reprocessing. The product is changed into something entirely different from what was originally intended.

* Regrading. This is possible when the product was nonconforming according to one set of requirements but it conforms to a lesser or different set of requirements. ISO 9000:2000 lists regrade as an example of "eliminating a detected nonconformity," but it seems to fit more logically under this category.

In their procedures for controlling nonconforming products, some organizations stipulate time limits within which a disposition must be accomplished (e.g., "Nonconforming products must be dispositioned within 30 days of being identified."). However, common sense dictates that some dispositions may take longer to arrive at than others. Time limits are rarely a good idea, and they usually result in the organization violating its own procedures. If organizations want to reduce the amount of time between identification and disposition, managers simply need to monitor products in their nonconforming areas, a responsibility that is often ignored.

Records

The standard requires that records be maintained describing the nature of nonconformities along with any subsequent actions taken. This requirement has given people a lot of heartache: "We're going to spend all our time filling out records!" The truth is that if an organization has that many nonconformities, completing records is the least of its problems.

At least the first three of the following pieces of information must be recorded:

A description of the nonconformity

Action taken, otherwise known as "disposition"

Reverification (i.e., when the nonconformity has been corrected)

Details of concessions, if any



Because we've already discussed documenting the concession, let's focus on the other three items. The description of the nonconformity and action taken can easily be recorded on the form that identifies the product as nonconforming. Keep it simple. Like most paperwork, the more complex a record is, the less employees will use it. The best option is electronic record keeping, particularly for organizations that identify nonconforming products through barcodes or other electronic means.

Reverifying nonconforming products

When nonconforming products are corrected, they must be reverified. This verification must match the original requirements that the product was intended to meet--otherwise, you've regraded the product. Reverification can be done through the original inspection process or by a completely different function--it doesn't matter. The important thing is that the reverification is recorded, just like any formal verification. Two elements must be included in this record:

Evidence of conformity with acceptance criteria (i.e., actual measurements or observations)

identification of the person authorizing the release (i.e., the person performing the verification or responsible for seeing that the task is carried out)



The reverification record can be kept anywhere that makes sense to the organization. The only imperative is that the relevant people know where it is and can retrieve it.

Nonconformities detected later

Occasionally--but presumably not often--nonconformities will be detected after delivery or after the customer has used the product. The standard requires that the organization take action appropriate to the effects or potential effects of the nonconformity. This can mean a number of things. Typically, organizations institute a returned goods process to deal with nonconformities that are detected after delivery or use has begun. For most goods, this system works fairly well and follows this general sequence:

1. The customer contacts the organization to report the nonconformity.

2. If it's determined to be appropriate, the customer is issued a tracking number of some sort. This number is often referred to as RMA (returned materials authorization) or RGA (returned goods authorization).

3. The customer is asked to mail or ship the product back to

the organization, referencing the assigned tracking number.

4. When the product returns to the organization, it's handled much like any other nonconformity. The primary difference is that there may be the additional issue of crediting the customer for all or part of the product's cost.

5. Corrective action is initiated to determine and eliminate the root cause of the nonconformity, as with in any other nonconforming product situation. The key benefit of a returned goods process is that the organization can see the nonconformity for itself, rather than just hearing about it.



Sometimes the "effects" of the nonconformity may require more or less action than the returned goods process described above. For wide-ranging or potentially harmful nonconformities, the organization may institute a universal recall of all products sold within a certain time period. For very small nonconformities, the customer may simply receive an automatic credit and be asked to discard the nonconforming product. In any case, the organization must consider the nonconformity's effects and take action that logically matches those effects.

Integrating to corrective action

Do all instances of nonconforming products result in corrective action? This is a very good question, and the answer requires some interpretation.

The ISO 9001:2000 requirements for corrective action are straightforward. "The organization shall take action to eliminate the causes of nonconformities in order to prevent recurrence." This basically means that all nonconformities will be submitted for corrective action, but the very next sentence provides something of a trap door: "Corrective actions shall be appropriate to the effects of the nonconformities encountered." My interpretation is that "appropriate actions" can include anything from companywide initiatives to no action at all. It all depends on the effects of the nonconformities. In other words, the organization must evaluate, among other considerations, the organizational risk and potential impact on customer satisfaction, and then take action that logically fits the description of "appropriate." As long as there's evidence that the organization has performed this evaluation and has an objective basis for its action--or nonaction--then nobody should object.

Keep in mind that the corrective and preventive action system is worthless if it's not used. An organization should look for every possible opportunity to put it to use and enforce root-cause investigation into nonconformities. Clearly, the link between corrective actions and control of nonconforming products is one of the most critical relationships within any management system. In the end, your system for controlling nonconforming products will be fatally flawed if it doesn't include a clear and direct connection to your corrective action system.
 

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hopefully this white paper may help you importers regarding customs duties.
 
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Niptuck MD

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If anyone on the FLF INSIDERS need any help with manufacturing/quality control, design implementation and or other services regarding to manufacturing and implementation of your idea/product new product design, please feel free to reach out and PM me. I am available to analyze documents and to help with complex situations and scenarios if needbe.
 

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so just a nugget of potential wisdom here,
my recent consulting gig involved a big time well known tractor and heavy equipment/earth moving supplier and then once I was finished with that, their competitor immediately called me; its funny how the industry works and how word gets around ever so quickly. This is something that you all should consider when sourcing. The manufacturing plants overseas all have competitors and copycats that are waitting to copy steal ideas, patents, technologies, processes, methodolgies etc etc. be wary all and always Trust but verify and implement OODA (OBSERVE ORIENT DECIDE ACT) when dealing with people from afar.
 

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Something for you guys to ponder;

The Manufacturers Council recently released a report, "Worldwide Manufacturing Predictions 2018," surveying the global manufacturing landscape. When creating its predictions the firm examined ecosystems and experiences, greater intelligence in operational assets and processes, data capitalization, the convergence of information technology (IT) and operations. Most of the group’s predictions refer to a continuum of change and digital transformation (DX) within the wider ecosystem of the manufacturing industry and global economy.

Technologies that will have the greatest impact include cloud, mobile, big data and analytics, and internet of things (IoT). Manufacturers also have high expectations for the business value of technologies that are in earlier stages of adoption, such as robotics, cognitive computing/artificial intelligence (AI), 3D printing, augmented reality/virtual reality (AR/VR), and even blockchain.

Over the next few years, IDC identified some of the most notable changes in the industry:

  • Redefining how businesses design (or define), deliver and monetize products and services
  • Developing new contextualized and customized experiences for customers, employees and partners
  • Increasing coordination and collaboration between IT and line-of-business organizations, as well as among ecosystem participants
  • Changing the nature of work and how it's accomplished with people, process, and technology coming together
While the predictions offered largely focus on the near- to midterm (2018–2021), the impact of many of these will be felt for years to come. IDC’s worldwide manufacturing 2018 predictions are:


Prediction 1: By 2020, 60% of the top manufacturers will rely on digital platforms that enhance their investments in ecosystems and experiences and support as much as 30% of their overall revenue.

Manufacturers are looking to digital platforms as the underpinnings for collaboration and coordination processes, bringing together the essential technology components for the benefit of cloud-based ecosystems — including employees, customers, suppliers, and partners. The platform facilitates information exchange and processes, at scale, simplifying connectivity and ensuring a level of security and trusted business interactions. The platform will be anchored by an open architecture and open access and, in many cases, by an open marketplace to support monetizable information flows and new revenue opportunities. As a result, digital platforms allow manufacturers to more seamlessly and quickly apply new capabilities, leveraging technology for "experiences" and supporting revenue generation activities within an ecosystem. While platforms may support traditional revenue streams online, some new opportunities will also develop explicitly because of the ecosystem effect.

Prediction 2: By 2021, 20% of the top manufacturers will depend on a secure backbone of embedded intelligence, using IoT, blockchain, and cognitive, to automate large-scale processes and speed execution times by up to 25%.

Most manufacturers will look for their major enterprise applications to be the means through which they automate and speed execution, using embedded intelligence. For many, this will happen through intelligent ERP systems, which integrate IoT for critical data input, cognitive to enhance the analytics, and blockchain to maintain the integrity of the data and decision making. We're in a transition stage where systems of record are being replaced by new systems of intelligence, which retain the core "systems of record" capabilities while layering in new technologies and capabilities. These intelligent applications incorporate the four pillars of the 3rd Platform and increasingly embed and leverage the innovation accelerators — IoT, cognitive computing, next-generation security, 3D printing, robotics, and even AR/VR. These systems leverage cloud and machine learning but more generally analytics of all types to manage data coming from new and existing sources. Some of the outcomes are:

  • IoT: Actual product/asset performance data that can initiate preventative maintenance activities and increase customer satisfaction; inventory tracking to facilitate higher levels of accuracy in the supply chain, minimizing order delays resulting from inaccuracies
  • Cognitive: Advanced analytics to complement existing analysis, focusing more on identifying patterns and prerequisites for workflows and processes, such as preventative maintenance and customer sentiment to direct sales, identifying customer preferences for more efficient product innovation
  • Blockchain: Data to ensure the authenticity and quality of goods in transit, increasing product and service quality; speeding processing from order to cash and traceability for data and contracts
Prediction 3: By 2020, 75% of all manufacturers will participate in industry clouds, although only one-third of those manufacturers will be monetizing their data contributions.

The proliferation of IoT-enabled connected products, assets, and processes is creating a wealth of performance- and location-based operational data, more quickly and easily, at lower technology costs. Industry clouds are an appealing option for sharing and analyzing this information. Furthermore, manufacturers are looking to industry clouds for sourcing and supplier management as well as working with customers. The cloud provides the mechanism for not only data sharing, analysis, and collaboration or joint ventures but also integration with even more data sources, such as environmental conditions (weather or traffic) or customer demand signals.

Despite the draw to industry clouds, the ability to monetize the participation of manufacturers in industry clouds is still a work in process. We believe maximizing the value of operational data requires sharing it with other companies. This will allow them to apply and analyze the data in the context of larger business requirements, such as yield, quality, utilization, preventative maintenance, and customer service. In the most advanced stages, companies will also monetize the data through the clouds, for example, using aggregated performance data to create more automated replenishment of inventory or spare parts.

Prediction 4: By 2019, the need to integrate operational technology and information technology as a result of IoT will have led to more than 30% of all IT and OT technical staff having direct project experience in both fields.

The report shows that operational equipment has become widely instrumented, and increasingly interconnected, with IoT being a major contributor to connectivity. To leverage that connectivity, manufacturers are finding that the approach requires collaboration between information technology and operational technology and their respective organizations. OT includes the hardware and software that monitors and manages operational assets and processes on the plant floor and in the supply chain, for example, supervisory control and data acquisition (SCADA), meters, valves, sensors, and data historians. The fundamental ability to understand the business process, as well as work with the data that process generates, is leading to changes in how IT and OT work together on projects. This change is driven by several factors:

  • The need to apply new technologies without negatively hampering operational effectiveness
  • The recognition that tremendous amounts of data are already available and go unused or analyzed well past the date when it could impact business decisions
  • The spotlight on unique security requirements in operations
In addition to embedding IT in operations and requiring project teams to have representatives from both IT and OT, manufacturers will also look for new talent in both organizations to have a broader perspective that connects technology with business outcomes and requirements. Employees will increasingly take part in training programs that prepare them for the shift in roles.

Prediction 5: By 2019, 50% of manufacturers will be collaborating directly with customers and consumers regarding new and improved product designs through cloud-based crowdsourcing, virtual reality, and product virtualization, realizing up to a 25% improvement in product success rates.

Product failure rate is high across industry, in some cases, up to 80%, in large part because manufacturers don't consistently take the time to understand customer needs at the front end of innovation. Or they presumed what the market wanted. This is a lesson the FMCG industry learned decades ago because of a highly competitive market and varied product portfolio. These same "fast-moving," dynamic characteristics are making their way into other industries that traditionally have had a longer product life cycle, such as automotive, heavy equipment, and industrial machinery. Companies in asset-intensive industries like chemicals also recognize the need for a proactive, flexible approach to product and process innovation. With the growth and maturation of cloud-based platforms, the integration of social media–like capabilities within collaborative innovation systems, and the broader use of simulation and virtualization of product models or digital twins, the tools are available now for manufacturers in all industries to progress and modernize their approach to ideation, innovation, and new product development.

Improving product innovation success rate (31%), better sensing and responding to customer needs (27%), and developing product-related services (30%) are all focus areas for manufacturers, according to IDC Manufacturing Insights' 2017 Product and Service Innovation Survey. And 39% of manufacturers are looking to apply analytics for improved ideation and innovation management — all indicators that the innovation management process (ideation, costing, product/formula modeling, and product portfolio management) needs to mature and extend beyond a small workgroup of marketing and design to include the extended internal, and external, team. This "team" should include tier 1 suppliers, partners, and at minimum a core group of strategic customers. Automotive manufacturers such as Ford and Daimler have emerging initiatives around design thinking and customer experience design. Crowdsourcing with a broader audience of customers, prospects, and domain experts should also be a part of this growing open innovation paradigm.

Prediction 6: In 2020, augmented reality and mobile devices will drive the transition to the gig economy in the service industry, with "experts for hire" replacing 20% of dedicated customer and field service workers, starting with consumer durables and electronics.

The gig economy has been defined to include part-time, temporary, and freelance jobs. It was one of the indirect consequences of the Great Recessions of 2008 as full-time workers were displaced and turned to part-time or temporary work to earn income. In 2017, it has now become a significant portion of the workforce in the United States and globally in countries that have the digital infrastructure to support it. This digital infrastructure is a core reason the gig economy is so popular, even in a non-recessionary market — it enables talent accessibility.

Gig economy technology platforms have proliferated, including several that are geared specifically toward managing services, like HelloTech, which provides services for computer electronics, including computer repair, smart homes, networking, and internet. More recently, IKEA, the Swedish manufacturer and retailer, announced its intent to purchase TaskRabbit, one of the early gig economy platforms with more than 60,000 freelance workers that range from handymen to movers to assistants.

IDC has seen the increase of "experts for hire" in manufacturing service–related roles as customer demands for faster service intersect with digitally enabled service platforms. Now, customer service representatives have flexibility of both location and schedule (e.g., working from home Sunday evenings), and skilled field service workers can respond to more opportunities in the market, servicing an entire category of product (printers) rather than a specific brand. IDC expects the trend to expand further with technologies that are now available through Android and iPhone app store downloads, including PTC's Vuforia Chalk, which allows peer-to-peer AR through "digital chalk" markups that will help guide a customer through troubleshooting or self-repair processes.

The benefits to manufacturers include cost savings through a variable workforce that can be more closely tied to customer demand, access to skilled experts who would not be traditional hires (e.g., the personal computer hobbyist with another career), and higher customer service levels. All of this is made possible by the 3rd Platform — notably, the proliferation of personal mobile devices — and innovation accelerators like augmented reality, which enable guided repairs and remote expert instruction.

Prediction 7: By the end of 2020, one-third of all manufacturing supply chains will be using analytics-driven cognitive capabilities, thus increasing cost efficiency by 10% and service performance by 5%.

Most of the larger organizations have been investing in supply chain technologies that can enable the data capture and analysis functions. IDC defines the concept of digitally enhanced supply chain as something that would leverage internet of things and sensor data to provide real-time data insights that can essentially serve as inputs for building a cognitive model. Further, deep learning modules can aid in the creation of cognitive models, which in turn would be the core of a highly automated supply chain. This will drive cost efficiencies in labor expenditures, waste reduction, and better utilization of assets. Also, improvements in service performance will extend to delivery times, allocating inventory to high-priority orders, and faster new product introductions.

The key sources of this data would be logistics operational systems, warehouse management systems, shipping manifests from OEMs, dealer management systems, and point-of-sale (POS) devices. The data thus collected will aid in creating supply chain models that account for the unstructured data in the form of environmental, seasonal, and economic factors by creating cognitive models that can predict the inventory and logistics requirements with a high degree of accuracy. Organizations have been investing in applications with an aim to disrupt their existing supply chains and create a competitive differentiation through increased customer satisfaction levels.

The concept of a cognitive supply chain also allows organizations to proactively manage inventory by moving it closer to customer demand, which ultimately can reduce the overall cost of supply chain operations and increase the service levels. The challenges for digitally transforming the existing supply chains are equally daunting and would require the complete ecosystem to be at the same level of maturity coupled in terms of both technology and business processes.

Contd;.
 

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Prediction 8: By 2020, 80% of supply chain interactions will happen across cloud-based commerce networks, dramatically improving participants' resiliency and reducing the impact of supply disruptions by up to one-third.

Today, business networks are the essential enablers of digital transformation. In fact, recent IDC research highlights how the majority of companies realize the tremendous potential of expanding their focus beyond the four walls of their enterprises to collaborate with their business partners. Of the manufacturers that are participating in cloud-based commerce networks, 54% say they have seen tangible cost savings, and 44% indicate the networks allow easier access to suppliers and other types of providers (IDC's 2016 Supply Chain Survey). This requires a completely different management approach and use of tools than traditional, linear supply chains. As such, companies are restructuring their supply chains to allow them to be quickly reconfigured depending on the order volumes and geographic source of demand. At the same time, operators try to take fixed costs out of the network so that the supply chain profitably operates regardless of demand level. This cost focus is particularly high when serving emerging economies where demand is much less predictable.

Since business success will be centered around the timely and effective analysis of the large data sets generated by business and sensors, it is the view of IDC that the best supply chains will be those that have the ability to quickly analyze large amounts of disparate data and disseminate business insights to decision makers in real time or close to real time.

Therefore, open and flexible cloud architectures will be an essential tool as they enable data generation from any source (both internal and external to the manufacturer), comprehensive and fast analysis, and then ubiquitous consumption (initially with on-premise access as significant but declining over time).

Prediction 9: By 2020, 25% of manufacturers in select subsectors will have balanced production with demand cadence and achieved greater customization through intelligent and flexible assets.

One of the holy grails in manufacturing is how to achieve perfectly fine-tuned demand-driven (or shelf-driven, in CPG) value chains. This means aligning to the speed and changing needs of a demanding market without sacrificing the essential cost optimization results achieved in the past. A lot is being done by infusing real-time "intelligence" into networked, information-centric processes — essentially by providing decision makers with up-to-date information regarding the execution status of the processes they are leading and about the expected business outcome of their decisions.

Building on these data-driven processes, manufacturers are now ready to launch digitally executed processes, thanks to the advancement in tools and machine technology. We see today the market availability of assets that are intelligent (i.e., able to take AI-powered decisions) and flexible (i.e., that can perform variable tasks without the need of human intervention, such as intelligent co-robots, 3D printers, and machines with retooling capabilities).

These assets will be essential to automatically execute operational processes based on demand-driven order. Today, they — and the flexibility coming with them — are deployed to augment execution effectiveness and flexibility. Machines are designed to operate in synergy over an IoT platform, focused on the delivery of smart products that produce, record, and share information about their operating status to enable new business models. Elon Musk, founder, Tesla Motors, when commenting about the company's Gigafactory, which is due to be the biggest battery factory in the world and will be embedded with the most innovative technologies, including cognitive intelligence and AI, said, "A factory deserves more innovation and more engineering skill than the product itself." Musk added, "We consider [the factory] to be a product. The factory itself is the machine that builds the machine." In the future, the company will be directly connected to and informed by market conditions, enabling the near-real-time operational adjustments of assets performance and resources consumption based on demand variations. The main impact will be in balancing production processes with demand cadence and in achieving mass customization (or "lot size 1"). This transformation will provide a further growth opportunity for companies deploying advanced automation that will cover all the process where humans cannot bring any added value.

Different sectors will probably leverage technologies in different ways. In the fashion industry, we see already the availability of ready-made personalized clothing. Asset-intensive industries will probably able to reap the economic benefits of adapting production to demand requests and energy prices. In the engineering-oriented sectors, companies will establish autonomous end-to-end processes to deliver individualized and custom-based components and products. In the pharma industry, opportunities are around the delivery of mass-produced individualized drugs and treatment.

Prediction 10: By 2019, 15% of manufacturers that manage data-intensive production and supply chain processes will be leveraging cloud-based execution models that depend on edge analytics to enable real-time visibility and augment operational flexibility.

Factory execution processes have not yet been much impacted by cloud as much as other business domains, such as the supply chain. However, this is changing. The widespread availability of a reliable cloud infrastructure is making cloud a tool in the hand of process leaders. The opportunity of converting raw data from the machine level into enterprise-grade information can transform and elevate the role of shop floors in manufacturing organizations and make them central in the fulfillment process. To fulfill this promise, companies need to aggregate data from multiple sources and provide the right information, at the right time.

So far, companies' decisions are mostly torn between two main options: from one side, an on-premise execution system directly linked to machine data that guaranteed reliability, and latency, but lacked flexibility and accessibility; from the other side, a cloud-based system that ensures easy deployability and collaboration while sacrificing data availability and granularity.

To overcome this, companies will need to reconcile data in the production process that is execution relevant — that needs very little latency and cannot be transferred easily via cloud — with data that is visibility relevant for which cloud could be the best alternative. Interesting enough, IDC Manufacturing Insights' recent survey highlighted how cloud investment and OT/IT integration will take very high priority among operational technologies investments, with more than 40% of companies prioritizing investments in cloud software and platforms to support their OT processes.

Today, the availability of edge analytics that transform the massive amount of in-machine process data into aggregated and descriptive information is blurring this dichotomy. Edge analytics allow manufacturers to retain and process the data where it naturally resides — the machine — while ensuring this data is made properly visible to next-generation applications with measurable value to the business. We can refer to this process as "edge-ecution" or execution at the edge. The number of addressable business processes will grow exponentially. These hybrid execution models based on and depending on edge analytics will enable real-time, anticipatory, and adaptive operations.

EXCITING TIMES AWAIT

"IF YOUR NOT NEEDED, YOUR JUST NOT NEEDED"
 
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I am celebrating my bday early with you guys. 7/10 was a great day.
 

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Guys/Gals, here is a good document on GD&T (geometric dimensioning and tolerancing.) GD&T is a system for defining and communicating engineering tolerances. (from print to production)
It uses a symbolic language on engineering drawings and computer-generated three-dimensional solid models that explicitly describes nominal geometry and its allowable variation. May be of use for you prototypers
 
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GD&T Profile Definition
In GD&T, profile tolerance defines a uniform boundary around a surface within which the elements of the surface must lie. Profile is a complex tolerance that simultaneously controls a feature‘s form, size, orientation, and sometimes location. Profile is a three-dimensional tolerance that applies in all directions regardless of the drawing view where the tolerance is specified. It is usually used on parts with complex outer shape and a constant cross-section like extrusions.

An example of profile tolerance is shown below. The top figure shows the profile tolerance applied to a curved surface. The boxed symbols can be read “with respect to datum A, this surface must lie between two surface boundaries 0.8 apart and spaced equally about the true (or ideal) surface profile”. The bottom figure shows an example of a part that meets this tolerance.
 

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GD&T Total Runout Definition
In GD&T, total runout is a complex tolerance that controls a feature‘s straightness, profile, angularity, and other geometric variation. Total runout is different than runout because it applies to an entire surface simultaneously instead of individual circular elements.

An example of total runout tolerance is shown below. The top figure shows a total runout tolerance applied to a horizontal surface. The boxed symbols can be read “this entire surface must have full indicator movement (FIM) of less than 0.1 relative to datum A”. The lower figure shows how total runout is verified. Note that the indicator is applied all along, and perpendicular to the surface to which the tolerance is applied.
 

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