Twitter on the Deathwatch

[Vigilante]

I am putting Twitter on deathwatch.

I don't think they'll still be a thing by January 2018.

It will be around, but nobody will care. It will continue it's fade to irrelevance.

The next big platform hasn't been hatched yet, but you will see some new form of social media emerge in 2016.

Twitter is the MySpace of current social media.

Their 15 minutes of fame are over.

Shareholders will keep it alive artificially longer than they should, but it will be a slow bleed to zero.

They never had a superior value proposition to Facebook other than for stalking someone.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

I'm going to disagree... I think it will be bought out. It's too ubiquitous in media for it to disappear. Once it hits the cheap, it will be scooped up pretty quick.

 

[Andy Black]

Great thread.

I've shied away from social media platforms as I thought they were just a time suck. Then I realised I spend a lot of time on this forum, and it's really another social media platform, so I'm not as cr@p at "social media" as I presumed.

I don't know so much about the other platforms, but am pushing into them as of now.

I do trust Gary V, and he's BIG into Snapchat at the minute. He thinks NOW is that moment where it will go mainstream in another 12 months, so now is the time to do a landgrab and get positioned (and skilled) before it explodes.

Who am I to argue with him?


Saying that, I am going to get busy on Twitter, Facebook, LinkedIn, YouTube, Snapchat, Periscope, maybe Instagram, Slideshare, Google+, and any others that pop up on my radar.

I'm still kinda baffled by it all.

It's very interesting reading your thoughts in this thread. I'm learning loads, so thanks.

 

[AllenCrawley]

@Vigilante stop hating and trying to kill off businesses. First BigCommerce now twitter. Geez.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

To be honest the only thing anyone should ask with respect to Twitter is this: Is my target customer there? If so, you then should find it relevant -- impending doom or not. Until that question is answered differently, pontificating about the future is fun, but somewhat pointless.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

when does Facebook crack?

Facebook is a marketer's dream and a profit cow. As long as advertisers can reach specifically targeted groups, I doubt it will crack. Twitter on the other hand... another Silicon Valley pipe dream that sells dollars for nickels.

 

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[ilrein]

I think that Twitter fills an important need -- and we know well here, that so long as a need exists, their is a market for it.

The true value of Twitter is the ability for news to spread wildfire style. This massive communications platforms has made it very difficult for oppressive regimes to hide their actions from the world. Take a look at some of these "Twitter Revolutions".

There's too much value in a highly connected telecommunications network. 300 million active users is pretty stupendous, even if there are tons of dead accounts.

 

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[Andy Black]

I honestly wish LinkedIn were a little bit more active than it is. I would rather enjoy social media time on a professional platform (like this one) and market to THAT instead of trying to market to a bunch of Swagbottoms.

LinkedIn is actually annoying me at the minute. Sorry, the LinkedIn experience is, not the platform. I like how they're becoming a media platform and not just a social network, but you know what they say about marketers... My feed is so full of content marketing and click-bait titles that bore me to tears.

It's like everyone suddenly learned about Article Marketing and list building and are now pummelling us with it. It seems even worse than Facebook for some reason.

I'm finding it harder than I thought to be a consumer...

EDIT: The closest analogy I can think of is that all the business owners seem to be speed networking like they're at a local chamber of commerce networking event. All volume and no depth. (Shudder)

 

[LateStarter]

I do trust Gary V, and he's BIG into Snapchat at the minute. He thinks NOW is that moment where it will go mainstream in another 12 months, so now is the time to do a landgrab and get positioned (and skilled) before it explodes.

I like Gary too but I think you have to take his advice with a grain of salt when is comes to Snapchat. He's not as much of a business owner anymore as he is an adviser and VC investor...of which Snapchat is one he funds. So is Snapchat really going to blow up and somehow provide a platform for marketers to engage people? Or is he just trying to help one of his companies gain traction and create a self-fulfilling prophecy? I'm skeptical.

At it's core Snapchat is at best a push marketing platform which, coincidentally, is a tactic that doesn't align with Gary V's marketing philosophies. For him the platform works well to build his personal brand, distribute his thoughts and promote his key-note business. For that kind of a model there is ROI in Snapchat. For conventional products and consumer brands? I'm not so sure.

Who am I to argue with him?

Don't be so quick to discount your own opinions Andy! Gary V was a nobody at some point and discounted by many yet he kept his own views and forged his own road.

Edit: For me personally, Twitter has always been a lame-duck marketing platform. Engagements and conversions have always been much lower than Facebook. Twitter just isn't able to make ads sticky enough for real engagement with consumers. Facebook adds the element of Likes/Shares to campaigns which is peer-supported endorsements. It helps to validate your product and facilitate that buzz within a customers social circle.

 

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[Greyson F]

My reply to that @Vigilante involves that Peers, Inc. I mentioned in a recent reply.

With data science the forefront of most Value Propositions in social media, they are actually HIGHLY valuable to those who like to take advantage of user data.

Not to mention they are one of the strongest machine learning systems in the world for discovering and tracking localized, target, and worldwide trends.

I think Robbin Chase mentions something about scaled learning systems too. Things like Twitter are designed to grow until an Economic bubble pops them.

 

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[Vigilante]

They're slashing fixed and variable expenses, with massive layoffs last quarter. All of that will still not make them profitable. It will hopefully shorten losses while they pray for a hail mary pass. Too bad Aaron Rodgers isn't their CEO.

 

[Vigilante]

Great post.

I've never been a tweeter but whenever I heard an explosion in Kabul I would pull up twitter and a quick search would tell me exactly where the incident occured.

Theres value in the network but they may need to to change their overall strategy before a similar platform with better incentives replaces it.

Distributed, censorship resistant, global broadcasting system?

There's value in something that could be branded global broadcasting system

 

[IGP]

Twitter is as much about Chloe Kardashian as it is about breaking news from the middle east.

Right now trending on twitter, as I write this:

• [HASHTAG]#blizzard2016[/HASHTAG]
• [HASHTAG]#ChaseTheDay[/HASHTAG]
• [HASHTAG]#WelcomeBabyTomlinson[/HASHTAG]
• [HASHTAG]#Roe43[/HASHTAG]
• Charlotte Rampling
• [HASHTAG]#MyRoutineIn5Words[/HASHTAG]
• Josh Smith
• Macklemore
• Chingy
• Steve Harper

THATS Twitter.

Exactly why you have to be "tuned in" to the correct channel.

Trending right now on your TV are 43 reality TV shows, that doesn't mean you are watching them.

 

[Greyson F]

They're slashing fixed and variable expenses, with massive layoffs last quarter.

I think what they are doing is realizing they have a lack of control. Robbin mentions this when she analyzes Twitter. Out of all of the Social Media Platforms, Twitter is the one that has the most RAW data open to any and every software ready prowl through and organize it.

Facebook has ads.

Google has military contracts.

Twitter has...Donald Trump?

*Edited due to 4 "that" inputs in two sentences

 

[LateStarter]

I think the problem with Twitter is that people are trying to use it as a push marketing/sales platform and for that it just plain sucks. Content creators also piss me off because they're flooding the feed X times a day with the same shitty stories. That's not leveraging the platform's strengths!

It's strengths are two fold: 1) they're a decent communication platform for brands to engage customers with (both one-on-one and in mass) and 2) the data they aggregate serves as a good heartbeat to social issues and market conditions as seen by customers. You can react and engage quickly with the people that matter to you.

I don't think Twitter will go the way of MySpace but I don't think it will be the darling that it's made out to be now. Marketers are presently ruining Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram. I don't think Snapchat will get enough traction with buying demographics to become a replacement platform. The next best thing is still to come. People are watchign Peach closely but...I'm not sold on that either.

 

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[redsfaithful]

You can have an opposite opinion without being condescending.

I have been amazed through the years at the uncanny and unusual accuracy by which many of the predictions that emanated here, and MJ's predictions in particular but the regulars predictions overall, have come to pass. Way above average and I attribute it to above average intellect and above average knowledge quest of the posters here.

I have only been here a year and a half or so, and most of the predictions I have seen have been along the lines of the US economy is about to crash, the Fed is evil, bitcoin is the future, conspiracy theories galore and so on. The predictions I have read here (again, not comprehensive I'm sure) have been nearly uniformly wrong in the past year. However, I do not read every thread, of course.

Your thread here has more thought behind it than the threads I am referencing, but I'd be lying if I said it didn't make me think of the magazine indicator. I don't believe bringing that up was insulting, to be honest, but I did not intend condescension, and so I apologize for the offense.

 

[Vigilante]

Saw this the other day and thought it was interesting... Twitter still ranks #3 for total visits.

Twitter has stated in their annual reports that a significant % of their traffic is bots

 

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[Greyson F]

Twitter is as much about Chloe Kardashian as it is about breaking news from the middle east.

Right now trending on twitter, as I write this:

• [HASHTAG]#blizzard2016[/HASHTAG]
• [HASHTAG]#ChaseTheDay[/HASHTAG]
• [HASHTAG]#WelcomeBabyTomlinson[/HASHTAG]
• [HASHTAG]#Roe43[/HASHTAG]
• Charlotte Rampling
• [HASHTAG]#MyRoutineIn5Words[/HASHTAG]
• Josh Smith
• Macklemore
• Chingy
• Steve Harper

THATS Twitter.

I honestly wish LinkedIn were a little bit more active than it is. I would rather enjoy social media time on a professional platform (like this one) and market to THAT instead of trying to market to a bunch of Swagbottoms.

 

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[LeftBench]

I think Twitch is going to blow up... its video game related now but I see it being more social media oriented in the next 2-3 years. Myspace started as music, Facebook started as college kids, Twitch started as a platform to watch others play video games. I think it will change, evolve, and possibly become some type of massive social media platform.

 

[Vigilante]

I'm starting to think The Fastlane Forum predictions are akin to the magazine cover indicator. Funny to me that nobody in the thread has mentioned Vine (which they bought for $30 million and now has 200 million monthly users - something like 35% of teenagers use Vine and there are bonafide Vine celebrities) or Periscope. Twitter isn't going to be dead in two years. The stock price is actually getting to a price where I have been considering picking some up - I usually don't buy tech/growth stocks.

Are none of you sports fans? I can't imagine sports anymore without Twitter.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magazine_cover_indicator

The Magazine cover indicator is a somewhat irreverent economic indicator, though sometimes taken seriously by technical analysts, which says that the cover story on the major business magazines, particularly BusinessWeek, Forbes and Fortune in the United States is often a contrary indicator.


A famous example is a 1979 cover of BusinessWeek titled "The Death of Equities". The '70s had been a generally bad decade for the stock market and at the time the article was written the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 800. However, 1979 roughly marked a turning point, and stocks went on to enjoy a bull market for the better part of two decades. Even after the financial crisis of 2007–2010, stocks remain far above their 1979 levels.[1] Using the Magazine Cover Indicator, Business Week's projection that equities were dead should have been a buy signal. By the time an idea has had time to make its way to the business press, particularly a trading idea, then the idea has likely run its course.[2] Similarly, good news on a cover can be taken as an ill omen. As Paul Krugman has joked, "Whom the Gods would destroy, they first put on the cover of Business Week."[3]

You can have an opposite opinion without being condescending. Take a look at how MJ did on the second post, and contrast that to your post.

I have been amazed through the years at the uncanny and unusual accuracy by which many of the predictions that emanated here, and MJ's predictions in particular but the regulars predictions overall, have come to pass. Way above average and I attribute it to above average intellect and above average knowledge quest of the posters here.

Contrarian opinions welcome and even encouraged by me as I can learn from anything and anyone. Yours might be taken with more interest next time if you leave the over-the-top, insulting junior high debate points at Reddit where they belong.

 

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[Vigilante]

I have only been here a year and a half or so, and most of the predictions I have seen have been along the lines of the US economy is about to crash, the Fed is evil, bitcoin is the future, conspiracy theories galore and so on. The predictions I have read here (again, not comprehensive I'm sure) have been nearly uniformly wrong in the past year. However, I do not read every thread, of course.

Your thread here has more thought behind it than the threads I am referencing, but I'd be lying if I said it didn't make me think of the magazine indicator. I don't believe bringing that up was insulting, to be honest, but I did not intend condescension, and so I apologize for the offense.

No worries. Your comments here over the past year plus have generally been spot on.

There used to be an awesome forum called F*ckedCompany. Contrarians there would post INSIDERS-esque predictions, many of which came to pass. That's where my concept of death watch prognostication and investment speculation based on market and societal trends and history vs. technicals comes from. Plus, it's fun.

Watch MJ's predictions if you want to see an aberration. Most of them come to pass, primarily because he generally doesn't comment unless he knows exactly what he is talking about. Uncanny.

 

[LibertyForMe]

A bit of relevant news... whether this is good or bad remains to be seen.

http://www.fastcompany.com/3055843/...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

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[Imgal]

If all the talk of Twitter going to 10,000 characters is true (Gary V has been mentioning it so it must be ) then it does definitely feel like Twitter is on a slippery slope. A move like that isn't a pivot, it's a desperate attempt to try and be like all the other networks, but at the same time try and retain the same platform it's dedicated followers like. Basically it's the classic try to please everyone ... and no doubt in the end annoy everyone.

I work with a number of personalities and for them Twitter is actually still a very strong tool in terms of engagement. Getting out there and talking with people buying their music / watching their shows / using their service provides some big leaps in user retention and also developing a very committed following who will do your promotion work for you. The issue with that is it isn't scalable after a certain level. I'm currently doing a lot of work with Twitter and the other big four social networks and see what is providing the most value in terms of traffic and conversions and so far it's Facebook and Pinterest that are blowing the others out of the water. Twitter can still provide quality results, but it's a 5% of the percentage it used to be back in the day.

 

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[JDawg]

Saw this the other day and thought it was interesting... Twitter still ranks #3 for total visits.

 

[Jake]

I think that Twitter fills an important need -- and we know well here, that so long as a need exists, their is a market for it.

The true value of Twitter is the ability for news to spread wildfire style. This massive communications platforms has made it very difficult for oppressive regimes to hide their actions from the world. Take a look at some of these "Twitter Revolutions".

There's too much value in a highly connected telecommunications network. 300 million active users is pretty stupendous, even if there are tons of dead accounts.

Great post.

I've never been a tweeter but whenever I heard an explosion in Kabul I would pull up twitter and a quick search would tell me exactly where the incident occured.

Theres value in the network but they may need to to change their overall strategy before a similar platform with better incentives replaces it.

Distributed, censorship resistant, global broadcasting system?

 

[Vigilante]

That's exactly what twitter is: a news site.

It has replaced traditional news sources because it's 300MM people reporting the news. Now obviously you need to have your "channel" turned to the right station. ie. (following the people that provide news and not noise for whatever you are interested in.)

I don't use twitter, never have other than paying people to do my social for me.

But gone by 2018? Zero chance.

Twitter is as much about Chloe Kardashian as it is about breaking news from the middle east.

Right now trending on twitter, as I write this:

• [HASHTAG]#blizzard2016[/HASHTAG]
• [HASHTAG]#ChaseTheDay[/HASHTAG]
• [HASHTAG]#WelcomeBabyTomlinson[/HASHTAG]
• [HASHTAG]#Roe43[/HASHTAG]
• Charlotte Rampling
• [HASHTAG]#MyRoutineIn5Words[/HASHTAG]
• Josh Smith
• Macklemore
• Chingy
• Steve Harper

THATS Twitter.

 

[Greyson F]

I'm finding it harder than I thought to be a consumer...

I think the value in LinkedIn is not LinkedIn itself, but rather their groups and network niches.

It's much deeper than Facebook, and it is resource rich, quite like Reddit, in the way that their groups interact and actually build on the industry.

different than the way that the majority are trending things

Arbitrage with pretty much anything in life will lead to value, actually. I'm reading a book on private lending the right way, and its incredible how much value is laying around in places that people trend-stomp over.

 

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[Vigilante]

LinkedIn has been profitable since 2006.

 

[RHL]

They never had a superior value proposition to Facebook other than for stalking someone.

Twitter in a nutshell: Somebody made billions off making a network of people's AoL AIM away messages.

Proof that you don't need a great idea to hit it big.

You do, however, need one to stay big.

 

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[redsfaithful]

I think Twitch is going to blow up... its video game related now but I see it being more social media oriented in the next 2-3 years. Myspace started as music, Facebook started as college kids, Twitch started as a platform to watch others play video games. I think it will change, evolve, and possibly become some type of massive social media platform.

Amazon owns it now, but I am also bullish on twitch long term.