Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[AceVentures]

Anyone part of Small Cap / Pre-ICO group discussions?

I'm looking more for DAPP projects with an emphasis of solving problems utilizing the underlying tech. Med / Long term plays...

— Don't care much for payments/currency/lending crypto projects as it's full of noise.
— Buying into underlying protocols are too technical for me to understand.
(Although to be fair, I hold a basket of coins in both categories)

Examples like Audius. Also (although these aren't small cap anymore), things like Filecoin or Helium. Projects where decentralized governance and/or processing power is favorable to centralization.

Thanks in Advance!!!

Problem with most new projects is that they're nothing but a copy of other more prominent whitepapers. Everything builds on the bitcoin whitepaper, and most new projects don't bring anything unique to the ecosystem.

For example most NFTs today are a gimmick, and more of a proof of concept than real adoption. The issue being that the underlying standards that hold NFTs today don't provide for functionality at scale. You have a JSON file linked to a smart-contract, but from a composability standpoint, these JSON files can't speak to other smart-contracts so their use is very limited.

What really changes the game are simple things - like the ERC20. It's a very simple abstraction that becomes very powerful because of it's simplicity. What you should be on the lookout for are other standards or functions that change the game. A good example of this is Chainlink and how they approach the Oracle problem.

On-chain performance is one thing - but bringing functionality to the blockchain requires fetching, verifying, and interacting with off-chain data to link to on-chain blocks. The Oracle problem goes hand-in-hand with smart-contract functionality. Chainlink just dropped their whitepaper 2.0, which you should absolutely read to try to understand why it's a game changer. Talk about undervalued projects... Chainlink is working on what they call Decentralized Oracle Networks. These nodes will work to fetch all kinds of APIs and bring them on-chain.

Other examples of game-changing technology are scaling solutions. The reason why Polygon has exploded for example is because they offer a L2 alternative that is scalable, useable, and all the hungry liquidity in the market is flowing to it at the moment. It's a temporary fix, but the entire Polygon ecosystem could grow and get network effect, they've had a monumental increase in TVL in a short amount of time, which speaks to the market needs. You can also begin to think which protocols may benefit with additional scalability - so AMMs and any high-frequency throughput function will benefit and become more valuable.

What's in my opinion the element that changes the game entirely is identity. Pseudonomyous, anonymous, or even IRL-linked identities and account management change everything. From a user experience standpoint - it frees the masses from thinking about the technical private/public key-pair and seed-word abstractions. They disappear and instead people can manage their identities as well as their assets seamlessly across every device without over-exposed technical or social risk. The blockchain that allows people's web3 experience to be indistinguishable from their web2 experience will bring in hoards of adopters.

Brands --> look for what existing reputable organizations are doing to take advantage of the blockchain. Who is incentivized to use blockchain, and how does it benefit them? Reputable brands and all merchants are incentivized to make their offerings available to consumers via blockchain. Why? Not only does it fight counterfeit, it provides provenance of the products and sources, credibility to creators and designers, and it allows brands to establish a stronger relationship with their customers. Customer acquisition cost and lifetime value are high - brands have every incentive to strengthen their relationship after the sale, not to end it there. Tokenizing and identity management allow for very interesting and creative merchant-customer relationships.

Be careful as a lot of these ICOs are scams -- new projects with infinite supply of their magic beans will offer these beans to influencers for practically free, they shill to the plebs, the marketing team does their thing, and after distribution everyone on the in can exit at 100x+ multiples and the plebs can hold the bag with hopes that the likely anonymous/mysterious/noname team of 23 year olds goes on to change the world and become multi-billion dollar entities.

 

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[Timmy C]

Problem with most new projects is that they're nothing but a copy of other more prominent whitepapers. Everything builds on the bitcoin whitepaper, and most new projects don't bring anything unique to the ecosystem.

For example most NFTs today are a gimmick, and more of a proof of concept than real adoption. The issue being that the underlying standards that hold NFTs today don't provide for functionality at scale. You have a JSON file linked to a smart-contract, but from a composability standpoint, these JSON files can't speak to other smart-contracts so their use is very limited.

What really changes the game are simple things - like the ERC20. It's a very simple abstraction that becomes very powerful because of it's simplicity. What you should be on the lookout for are other standards or functions that change the game. A good example of this is Chainlink and how they approach the Oracle problem.

On-chain performance is one thing - but bringing functionality to the blockchain requires fetching, verifying, and interacting with off-chain data to link to on-chain blocks. The Oracle problem goes hand-in-hand with smart-contract functionality. Chainlink just dropped their whitepaper 2.0, which you should absolutely read to try to understand why it's a game changer. Talk about undervalued projects... Chainlink is working on what they call Decentralized Oracle Networks. These nodes will work to fetch all kinds of APIs and bring them on-chain.

Other examples of game-changing technology are scaling solutions. The reason why Polygon has exploded for example is because they offer a L2 alternative that is scalable, useable, and all the hungry liquidity in the market is flowing to it at the moment. It's a temporary fix, but the entire Polygon ecosystem could grow and get network effect, they've had a monumental increase in TVL in a short amount of time, which speaks to the market needs. You can also begin to think which protocols may benefit with additional scalability - so AMMs and any high-frequency throughput function will benefit and become more valuable.

What's in my opinion the element that changes the game entirely is identity. Pseudonomyous, anonymous, or even IRL-linked identities and account management change everything. From a user experience standpoint - it frees the masses from thinking about the technical private/public key-pair and seed-word abstractions. They disappear and instead people can manage their identities as well as their assets seamlessly across every device without over-exposed technical or social risk. The blockchain that allows people's web3 experience to be indistinguishable from their web2 experience will bring in hoards of adopters.

Brands --> look for what existing reputable organizations are doing to take advantage of the blockchain. Who is incentivized to use blockchain, and how does it benefit them? Reputable brands and all merchants are incentivized to make their offerings available to consumers via blockchain. Why? Not only does it fight counterfeit, it provides provenance of the products and sources, credibility to creators and designers, and it allows brands to establish a stronger relationship with their customers. Customer acquisition cost and lifetime value are high - brands have every incentive to strengthen their relationship after the sale, not to end it there. Tokenizing and identity management allow for very interesting and creative merchant-customer relationships.

Be careful as a lot of these ICOs are scams -- new projects with infinite supply of their magic beans will offer these beans to influencers for practically free, they shill to the plebs, the marketing team does their thing, and after distribution everyone on the in can exit at 100x+ multiples and the plebs can hold the bag with hopes that the likely anonymous/mysterious/noname team of 23 year olds goes on to change the world and become multi-billion dollar entities.

Yeh spot on mate.
I think the next bull market will reveal the True Defi and NFT game changing tech.

 

[Timmy C]

Bitcoin and crypto markets crash on US crackdown reports

The drop appears to coincide with reports that the US Treasury is planning to tackle financial institutions for money laundering carried out through digital assets.

finance.yahoo.com

Fake news.
It's an IQ test, much like the tether fud which many failed.

 

[Timmy C]

This is punishment for letting doge get to a 23 billion dollar market cap.

 

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[Kasimir]

Waiting for the US gov to start banning / regulating this shit, then I'll get my potato chips ready.

hahaha you wish. How will they ban it when one of the biggest companies own that "shit"? If they do so it will mean the next financial crisis.

 

[Timmy C]

I got a new shiba today.
What do you all think?

 

[Hai]

I got a new shiba today.
What do you all think?View attachment 37627

How many hundred ETH did he cost?

 

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[Timmy C]

How many hundred ETH did he cost?

Many ETH.
Much worth it, future currency of the moon.

 

[MitchC]

Many ETH.
Much worth it, future currency of the moon.

You should buy the nft of that image

 

[Timmy C]

Anyone part of Small Cap / Pre-ICO group discussions?

I'm looking more for DAPP projects with an emphasis of solving problems utilizing the underlying tech. Med / Long term plays...

— Don't care much for payments/currency/lending crypto projects as it's full of noise.
— Buying into underlying protocols are too technical for me to understand.
(Although to be fair, I hold a basket of coins in both categories)

Examples like Audius. Also (although these aren't small cap anymore), things like Filecoin or Helium. Projects where decentralized governance and/or processing power is favorable to centralization.

Thanks in Advance!!!

I stay away from that stuff personally.

You'll find that most projects are scams.

I only put in 1-5% of my total portfolio value into the way more speculative stuff such as STX.

If you want dapps, just bet on the underlining protocol (ETH)

 

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[Timmy C]

So when doge collapses and profits are taken...

Where do you think that liquidity will flow?

 

[Deleted78083]

So when doge collapses and profits are taken...

Where do you think that liquidity will flow?

Are doge's hodlers smart enough to sell at the top and reinvest that into something else?

 

[Timmy C]

Are doge's hodlers smart enough to sell at the top and reinvest that into something else?

Someone has to sell the top.

What will they buy?

Surely not bitcoin or eth...

I think we will see many more altcoins go on absurd runs ones it's over.

 

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[Timmy C]

Someone has to sell the top.

What will they buy?

Surely not bitcoin or Seth...

I think we will see many more altcoins go on absurd runs ones it's over.

I tip the ETH killer narrative coins such as DOT to go on a run because it's cheaper!

More gain bro!

This is another reason I think litecoin will pop hard.

When the herd arrives, they will pump it.

Because, it's basically bitcoin but cheaper...

 

[Deleted78083]

I tip the ETH killer narrative coins such as DOT to go on a run because it's cheaper!

More gain bro!

This is another reason I think litecoin will pop hard.

When the herd arrives, they will pump it.

Because, it's basically bitcoin but cheaper...

In any way, crypto still isnt mainstream. Institutional investors barely entered in the US, it will take 2-3 more years before they do the same in Europe. So i think as well that BTC can pump much higher in the long term. As for a ban, it is too late.

You dont ban assets worth 1$ trillion. They should have banned it in 2010, but they didnt cuz they didnt understand what it was.

At this point, any coin is cheaper than btc lol but i like your case for litecoin.

 

[Timmy C]

In any way, crypto still isnt mainstream. Institutional investors barely entered in the US, it will take 2-3 more years before they do the same in Europe. So i think as well that BTC can pump much higher in the long term. As for a ban, it is too late.

You dont ban assets worth 1$ trillion. They should have banned it in 2010, but they didnt cuz they didnt understand what it was.

At this point, any coin is cheaper than btc lol but i like your case for litecoin.

They 100% can ban it, I 100% believe they cannot stop it.
Those who do will eventually bend the knee as they will fall behind.

That's why you need an OTC contact.
That's why you need to set yourself up on a decentralized exchange.
That's why I will say again if anyone wants to sell me their BTC or ETH to DM me.

 

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[AceVentures]

You can't ban a global computer, you can only ban yourself from using it.

This needs to be repeated because of how often that FUD of a narrative is spread, and how people on this forum still don't seem to get it. Pointing to yahoo finance articles about the next narrative some out-of-touch-with-reality boomer thought up.

Go tell your friends that still don't get it. You can't ban the internet. The US can't ban it either - neither can the SEC. They can only try to change your perception - beyond that they're powerless.

If ever the FED imposes laws against Crypto transactions, it's the USD price and the Central Banks that would collapse, not the other way around! Because crypto would continue to trade freely, it's the US entities that would be barring themselves from engaging with this economy.

Whoever is talking about "banning" crypto needs to learn what it is.

It still blows my mind that most people are still uneducated on the topic, despite everything that's going on in the world and the literal LASER BEAM eyes on crypto.

"Banning" crypto is akin to setting up sanctions against your entire nation from participating in a booming global economy. Even if imposed as law, how long before that nation falls out of favor with it's citizens because it's citizens prefer to engage in another economy than their nation's closed market?

Look at Venezuela's currency. Look at Iran's currency. Look at Argentina's currency. Those guys' ability to engage in free markets was disrupted and their shit is now worthless. Their own people don't even use it, in fact they'd rather Runescape gold than that shit!

Can you ban WiFi communication? What about NFC? Can you ban people from bluetoothing information to each other? Why or why not? If you can answer those questions, you can stop worrying about anybody "Banning" crypto.

You never could ban it. Not even 10 years ago. You could never have banned it, the same way you couldn't ban the Internet Protocol. It's inevitable, because it's a form of communication that's peer to peer. You can't "ban" people from talking to each other. If you can understand that, then you can understand that crypto is a form of talking, and it can't be banned because this form of talking happens whether anybody likes it or not.

 

[Deleted78083]

You can't ban a global computer, you can only ban yourself from using it.

This needs to be repeated because of how often that FUD of a narrative is spread, and how people on this forum still don't seem to get it. Pointing to yahoo finance articles about the next narrative some out-of-touch-with-reality boomer thought up.

Go tell your friends that still don't get it. You can't ban the internet. The US can't ban it either - neither can the SEC. They can only try to change your perception - beyond that they're powerless.

If ever the FED imposes laws against Crypto transactions, it's the USD price and the Central Banks that would collapse, not the other way around! Because crypto would continue to trade freely, it's the US entities that would be barring themselves from engaging with this economy.

Whoever is talking about "banning" crypto needs to learn what it is.

It still blows my mind that most people are still uneducated on the topic, despite everything that's going on in the world and the literal LASER BEAM eyes on crypto.

"Banning" crypto is akin to setting up sanctions against your entire nation from participating in a booming global economy. Even if imposed as law, how long before that nation falls out of favor with it's citizens because it's citizens prefer to engage in another economy than their nation's closed market?

Look at Venezuela's currency. Look at Iran's currency. Look at Argentina's currency. Those guys' ability to engage in free markets was disrupted and their shit is now worthless. Their own people don't even use it, in fact they'd rather Runescape gold than that shit!

Can you ban WiFi communication? What about NFC? Can you ban people from bluetoothing information to each other? Why or why not? If you can answer those questions, you can stop worrying about anybody "Banning" crypto.

You never could ban it. Not even 10 years ago. You could never have banned it, the same way you couldn't ban the Internet Protocol. It's inevitable, because it's a form of communication that's peer to peer. You can't "ban" people from talking to each other. If you can understand that, then you can understand that crypto is a form of talking, and it can't be banned because this form of talking happens whether anybody likes it or not.

When i used the word "ban", i meant "imposing restrictions on citizens attempting to own, buy, or sell cryptocurrencies". The same way you are not supposed to pirate movies. That doesnt stop people from doing it, but it is certainly less mainstream than if it was legal.

 

[TeacherToOwner]

I have read they are pumping up doge tomorrow for "Dogeday" and attempting to get the coin to 69 cents. I'm honestly tempted to buy and sell, but I don't like a lot about this coin.. like the fact that a majority of the coin owners are only a small group of people so they have the ability to literally have a huge sell off and let this thing drop. What are you guys thinking about "buying/gambling" on this ?

 

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[Kevin88660]

How are you getting your coins?
are you buying them?
Because if so, you're missing the point.

A few years ago, I put money into something called ''Bananacoin''
I redeemed them and was shipped a crate full of bananas. Essentially the price of bananas was tied to the coin.

Banana coin isn't tradeable on any exchange. I can't swap out a crate of bananas for a single Eth. In fact, the entire exchange was done by giving out my routing and account number, then supplying an address to send me coins. Scary, to say the least, I used a new account to make the trade.

But what if it was? What if I could pay for the train, buy tickets, purchase a car with a virtual token that's swappable for the current value of bananas? Sure, that's a fantasy akin to craziness, but that's exactly where we are today.

The value of money isn't tied to the state fiat of the coin.
With banana coin I could move to a developing country and bring bananas of a lifetime. I could move to the tropical rainforests of Africa and be the banana king. I could live in a shack and survive on bananas until I died of radiation poisoning.

But at no point during my (short) lifetime would I need to interact with a banking system again. I could go so far off-grid I'd only show up to the systems that track people in the pretense of off-grid living.
None of this happened. I traded in my coins for bananas and received far more nanners than I knew what to do with. I made banana bread. I gave away bananas and told people I'd bought them with an online token.

I invested again in titcoin. no that's not a typo.
I thought it was a clever idea to pay sex workers, who frequently can't get paid. It went tits up. I lost everything put into it, which wasn't much. I decided never to go balls deep in a coin again.

The same thing could have happened. In a near-distant future titcoincould have been accepted as a fiat currency. Lord knows Mark Zuckerberg is trying to do this himself, desperately attempting to create a fiat currency for the world to use. After all, anyone who figures it out is an instant millionaire.

Let's go back to what I said before
how are you getting this coin>?
Because if you are buying it, you're missing the point.

If you are trading pounds for some new or old coin online, you are playing tamogatci with existing currency.

The real power of crypto is its anonymity.
When you mine a coin (haha good luck!) you own an untraceable asset.
If I mine my own BTC I can buy a phone registered to someone else. I can buy a home, rent a plane, and I can do it in seconds. I don't have to wait for contracts, papers, lawyers, or ANY other red tape. Not that I need to do any of the above, but the possibility is there.

That power causes animosity.
With good reason, governments don't want invisible citizens.
and there are protections in place to ensure that the moment you trade crypto outside it's own circulation and exchange it for dollars, pounds or your state currency that it's tracked to the teeth.

Try it yourself. Register for a new exchange —driver's license, a photo of your face, heck maybe some fingerprints. Go to a bitcoin ATM and read the notice on the machine. Pay attention to the person who's slowly eaten the same sandwich for the past year in the same chair, a plainclothesman. Look up. Yeah, that's a facial recognition camera that costs as much as your car.

Crypto on an exchange is a farce.
Speculation on day-to-month prices, people using money to buy coins with the intent of ''mooning'' them, it's a farce.
Sure, you can make or lose money betting on how a coin raises or loses in value. But that isn't the real power. It never was.

I understand the the early bitcoin community were driven by libertarian ideals, but as the church gets bigger the old guards need to accommodate the 95 percent who are in it for the money.

The strongest political force behind the entire crypto community is really down to this and nothing really about technology or libertarianism in particular. It is really about a bloodless revolution, and revolution is always about fighting for wealth and resources. The older generations and people in position of wealth and power have enormous wealth in securities and real estates. The younger and less wealthy generation has to work their whole life to own some stocks and a small house. So the game is to push the crypto concensus and narrative as much as they can and thus “HODL”, so that the entire crypto assets valuation can reprice against the real estate and securities.

There is only a fixed amount of real purchasing power measured by global assets. So as the crypto holders get richer actually they have “stolen” wealth from the people holding stocks and real estates.

Michael Saylor, a once successful business who scorns about bitcoin. Now a struggling businessman in the software sector who became a convert? Why? Because he knows he has no future in the old paradigm as SAAS gets more competitive. He saw through the game and this is his only chance. All in on bitcoin and join the bandits. A second chance.

The more you read about crypto stories the political narrative becomes apparent. If you can control and fight for the narrative of what is actually valuable, you have the power to snatch the wealth of others without causing any bloodshed.

 

[AceVentures]

I have read they are pumping up doge tomorrow for "Dogeday" and attempting to get the coin to 69 cents. I'm honestly tempted to buy and sell, but I don't like a lot about this coin.. like the fact that a majority of the coin owners are only a small group of people so they have the ability to literally have a huge sell off and let this thing drop. What are you guys thinking about "buying/gambling" on this ?

I'm personally staying vigilant. The market sentiment is very strange - nobody can seem to make out what's going on or why. Leverage traders keep getting rekt. A lot of money changing hands. High volatility.

I speculate and make earnings here and there, but when you have the option to invest in a highly undervalued global computer, and a bunch of lottery memes, I would rather put my money on the global computer. Fundamental analysis > hype.

Likely won't make you rich in the short term, but will make you rich in the long term.

If you want to make a more educated gamble - pick a hot narrative and do some research. In DeFi, which is set to explode imo, hot topics include DEXs, derivatives, algorithmic stablecoins (think Terra ecosystem), yield aggregators, lending/borrowing services, and insurance among other things. There are also baskets like the DPI (DeFi Pulse Index) which is collateralized 1:1 for every coin in the basket which can be redeemed against the DPI. It currently consists mostly of UNI at 30% down to smaller and smaller positions with varying degrees of risk.

Or just hodl and maybe deposit into safe LP for some kickback.

Last note on the topic of DOGE,

For every winner in the run, there will likely be thousands maybe millions of losers. It's passed the valuation of Deutsche Bank, Ford, and many others while having no development for like 2 years. Without anything to benchmark the thing against, it's pure gambling. Who knows what happens? Maybe DOGE is the future... However, the odds would seem stacked against me in a game where some dude owns half the economy. But man, there is NO telling about anything.

If you buy DOGE - I really wish you the best and hope it actually goes to $1 and beyond! Send me a bottle of champagne when you're on the moon.

 

[Kevin88660]

I'm personally staying vigilant. The market sentiment is very strange - nobody can seem to make out what's going on or why. Leverage traders keep getting rekt. A lot of money changing hands. High volatility.

I speculate and make earnings here and there, but when you have the option to invest in a highly undervalued global computer, and a bunch of lottery memes, I would rather put my money on the global computer. Fundamental analysis > hype.

Likely won't make you rich in the short term, but will make you rich in the long term.

If you want to make a more educated gamble - pick a hot narrative and do some research. In DeFi, which is set to explode imo, hot topics include DEXs, derivatives, algorithmic stablecoins (think Terra ecosystem), yield aggregators, lending/borrowing services, and insurance among other things. There are also baskets like the DPI (DeFi Pulse Index) which is collateralized 1:1 for every coin in the basket which can be redeemed against the DPI. It currently consists mostly of UNI at 30% down to smaller and smaller positions with varying degrees of risk.

Or just hodl and maybe deposit into safe LP for some kickback.

Last note on the topic of DOGE,

For every winner in the run, there will likely be thousands maybe millions of losers. It's passed the valuation of Deutsche Bank, Ford, and many others while having no development for like 2 years. Without anything to benchmark the thing against, it's pure gambling. Who knows what happens? Maybe DOGE is the future... However, the odds would seem stacked against me in a game where some dude owns half the economy. But man, there is NO telling about anything.

If you buy DOGE - I really wish you the best and hope it actually goes to $1 and beyond! Send me a bottle of champagne when you're on the moon.

I think there is a good chance that we are getting into a supercycle.

This means that if you are trying to time the top and avoid the 3 years bear market and 80 percent drawdown you risk missing the train.

As crypto asset market cap gets larger, it gets more respect and attention and moves up in the value chain. In short it will have characteristics that is becoming somewhat more like stocks than before.

This means that the bull cycle are longer and gentler with reduced volatility, while the bear cycle is much shorter. You can have a market top followed by mass liquidation of leveraged position and blood bath, then 3-6 months again we are at all time high again and higher.

A lot of the crypto old players are still fearful of getting caught in the peak of the cycle right in front of a 80 percent drawdown. Once the market is shown to be resilient we are going to develop the consensus of “cryptos only go up” just like how we get used for stocks. And it help to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Some of the richest people in crypto space are actually over 90 percent in crypto and not doing the macro timing of switching crypto to stable/fiat. It is kind of scary and I will never do that for myself, but it shows how much they buy into the thesis of supercycle.

 

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[mr4ffe]

#1. Monero (XMR) is THE privacy coin. This one will inevitably moonrocket. It will take a very long time, though. I'm willing to bet it'll surpass Bitcoin around year 2040, but a lot can happen before that.

#2. Oxen is an interesting Monero fork, but it's unlikely to see widespread adoption, so I'm on the fence.

#3. Ethereum has already received pretty wide adoption, but it has some drawbacks. It's a decent short-term investment.

 

[AceVentures]

I think there is a good chance that we are getting into a supercycle.

This means that if you are trying to time the top and avoid the 3 years bear market and 80 percent drawdown you risk missing the train.

As crypto asset market cap gets larger, it gets more respect and attention and moves up in the value chain. In short it will have characteristics that is becoming somewhat more like stocks than before.

This means that the bull cycle are longer and gentler with reduced volatility, while the bear cycle is much shorter. You can have a market top followed by mass liquidation of leveraged position and blood bath, then 3-6 months again we are at all time high again and higher.

A lot of the crypto old players are still fearful of getting caught in the peak of the cycle right in front of a 80 percent drawdown. Once the market is shown to be resilient we are going to develop the consensus of “cryptos only go up” just like how we get used for stocks. And it help to become a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Some of the richest people in crypto space are actually over 90 percent in crypto and not doing the macro timing of switching crypto to stable/fiat. It is kind of scary and I will never do that for myself, but it shows how much they buy into the thesis of supercycle.

Yep - seems more and more like it. Again I ask the group, what is your bear market catalyst? Everything points to up-only, and I haven't found a likely catalyst for change in the opposite direction.

This was on CNBC today - and I don't think the market has swallowed it whole yet. But China seems to be open to crypto... surprise surprise! Li Bo, who was appointed by the People's Bank of China as the deputy governor just last week, is now declaring cryptocurrencies as viable investment alternatives.

Fun question, how much would it cost the PBOC to invest in a sizeable bag across every prominent DeFi ecosystem? How much would it cost them if for 10 years they've been strategically buying a small share of the possible infrastructure of the future? Relative to their GDP I mean. It seems like a drop in a sea of money for China. I mean think about it, they're led by engineers. For 10-12 years since Bitcoin first came out, the secret service or the intelligence agencies or whoever the hell knows a thing or two about networking in China doesn't get the memo about this? This is pure speculation but interesting to think about.

 

[GPM]

lol @ litecoin being cheaper than bitcoin so easier to buy. Love that. We are dealing with something that is literally infinitely divisible, and divisibility has no effect on the product.

Gotta get me that whole litecoin rather than that fraction of a BTC. But yea, this is how most schlubs think.

 

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[Kevin88660]

Yep - seems more and more like it. Again I ask the group, what is your bear market catalyst? Everything points to up-only, and I haven't found a likely catalyst for change in the opposite direction.

This was on CNBC today - and I don't think the market has swallowed it whole yet. But China seems to be open to crypto... surprise surprise! Li Bo, who was appointed by the People's Bank of China as the deputy governor just last week, is now declaring cryptocurrencies as viable investment alternatives.

Fun question, how much would it cost the PBOC to invest in a sizeable bag across every prominent DeFi ecosystem? How much would it cost them if for 10 years they've been strategically buying a small share of the possible infrastructure of the future? Relative to their GDP I mean. It seems like a drop in a sea of money for China. I mean think about it, they're led by engineers. For 10-12 years since Bitcoin first came out, the secret service or the intelligence agencies or whoever the hell knows a thing or two about networking in China doesn't get the memo about this? This is pure speculation but interesting to think about.

The only bear market catalyst is crypto winners thinking they have won too much money and this is unreal and unsustainable. So they cash their crypto out and park it elsewhere. Because in 2017 fomo is too strong and there are very little good projects to invest in other than speculating on btc prices. As a result people who bought at the top suffered and that gave crypto a bad reputation.

This time the money is likely to stay in the crypto circle because there are a lot of good projects to continue to invest in and lack of better risk reward options in tradfi investment spaces. And if the bull market gets more gentle and slower there is no need for a rush to exit out of a bubble. And when people who bought at the top found that they are able to break even holding 3-4 months easily, it is likely to attract more investment interest.

To trigger a bear market must have something so bad like a major improvement in quantum computing or a UN decision pushed by multiple countries to curtail crypto worldwide.

 

[Kevin88660]

I also see a fastlane opportunity within crypto without launching your own token or registering a crypto service business.

There are a lot of microcap crypto projects less than 5 million that has a decent protype product but poor marketing. Basically what you can do is join the community. Ask them questions. Offer to help them and invest a few thousand dollar yourself.

If the project is priced at 3 million but its undervalued due to poor marketing a decent marketing can push it 10-20x the valuation. With further development and contribution on the underlying fundamental you can push it another 2-3x more conservatively. It is not really a lot of work to turn a 5k investment into 100k (at least in theory).

The beauty of it is that you are
1) not starting from absolute zero with your own business. Website, roadmaps, prototypes are usually ready.
2) You do not have to learn multiple skills often required to run a single business by yourself. Just focus on your strength.
3) There is amazing exit liquidity, and you do not have to worry about selling your profitable business at present value which is often the case
4) You have a chance just to be lucky at the right place right time. There are other active investors working with you. The bullish market sentiment can reward you earlier even than you deserve. If marker turns against you it doesnt really affect you and you keep holding and doing what you should be doing, because even if you have started your own business and invested in business equipment it is always a near zero sunk cost which is far worst.
5) A great experience to be with other business minded and entrepreneurial minded people. If you start your own business and hire two employee you are probably the only one sharing such values.

Your edge could be offering marketing, could be technical..could be anything. An undervalued project that you could help in critical areas.

I am involved in one project and it is gaining some good momentum both in the development and the token price. It doesn’t even take your whole commitment if you are involved in one project only.

If you are leadership driven kind of person (which I am not) you can inspire the team and push the price even higher. I can identify value and offer critical assistance but I cannot (as a new member) ask some of the sleeping early members to wake the hell up and do the work. (a common issue I realise)

 

[cviji]

I also see a fastlane opportunity within crypto without launching your own token or registering a crypto service business.

There are a lot of microcap crypto projects less than 5 million that has a decent protype product but poor marketing. Basically what you can do is join the community. Ask them questions. Offer to help them and invest a few thousand dollar yourself.

If the project is priced at 3 million but its undervalued due to poor marketing a decent marketing can push it 10-20x the valuation. With further development and contribution on the underlying fundamental you can push it another 2-3x more conservatively. It is not really a lot of work to turn a 5k investment into 100k (at least in theory).

The beauty of it is that you are
1) not starting from absolute zero with your own business. Website, roadmaps, prototypes are usually ready.
2) You do not have to learn multiple skills often required to run a single business by yourself. Just focus on your strength.
3) There is amazing exit liquidity, and you do not have to worry about selling your profitable business at present value which is often the case
4) You have a chance just to be lucky at the right place right time. There are other active investors working with you.

Your edge could be offering marketing, could be technical..could be anything. An undervalued project that you could help in critical areas.

I am involved in one project and it is gaining some good momentum both in the development and the token price. It doesn’t even take your whole commitment if you are involved in one project only.

If you are leadership driven kind of person (which I am not) you can inspire the team and push the price even higher. I can identify value and offer critical assistance but I cannot (as a new member) ask some of the sleeping early members to wake the hell up and do the work. (a common issue I realise)

I like this idea, I do fear though that in this industry there are more projects out there that can and are marketing very well, but that lack the quality in the underlying project / use case / execution. Rather than Vice versa.

I haven't seen this thread for a while but have read / listened to more and more and allowed myself to be convinced that BTC is only heading one way for the foreseeable. I have however invested in a number of other coins over the last few months. In addition to BTC now holding some of Vechain, Cardono, ICON, and Polkadot. Plus a few others, one of note FEG token - For simple reasons that I like the marketing, community, use case and tokenomics. Seems like it could come to something however we'll see.

Is anyone participating in any Lauchpads? Unfortunately the amount needed to stake in order to get a seat at the table on these ICOs can be rather large and out of reach for the regular small time investor?

 

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[Kevin88660]

I like this idea, I do fear though that in this industry there are more projects out there that can and are marketing very well, but that lack the quality in the underlying project / use case / execution. Rather than Vice versa.

I haven't seen this thread for a while but have read / listened to more and more and allowed myself to be convinced that BTC is only heading one way for the foreseeable. I have however invested in a number of other coins over the last few months. In addition to BTC now holding some of Vechain, Cardono, ICON, and Polkadot. Plus a few others, one of note FEG token - For simple reasons that I like the marketing, community, use case and tokenomics. Seems like it could come to something however we'll see.

Is anyone participating in any Lauchpads? Unfortunately the amount needed to stake in order to get a seat at the table on these ICOs can be rather large and out of reach for the regular small time investor?

The coins that have excellent marketing with questionable use cases are Usually doing very well-above 50M market cap or doing not well because they are outright scams/pump and dump schemes.

A lot of the potential for active investing are those with good road map and prototype but stuck with marketing and execution and management issue. There is a fund for the dev to work on it as designed but when it is time to work everyone pretends to be a “volunteer”. You need to pressure them a bit to have a proper accountability system set up, and meanwhile earn your respect by willing to do the work and contribute.

A lot is about team morale. When things get stuck everyone gets silent until a new comer comes in to pump some hopium and tell them that their business us worth 50x more.

 

[cviji]

I wanted to share something with the fam - something I think is very important to consider from a macro perspective. Especially on a red day like this that makes most want to fork their eyes out than to look at their portfolio.

Read this article in it's entirety - please do if you care about DeFi or are interested at all in the direction blockchain technology is going. It will surely give you much needed perspective to appreciate how early you still are.

Most won't read anyway so I'll highlight the premise to give you more incentive:

• Without first understanding “why” digital assets can inflict fatal body blows on our current analogue financial system, you would never have the conviction to ride an asset down 90% in the bear market, to up 10x in the bull market
• If you bought Bitcoin at the 2017 high of $20,000, by late 2018 you were down close to 90%.But if you held on until today, that investment is up 3x, which still beats the percentage growth of the Fed’s balance sheet
• A peer-to-peer system that moves information from point to point without a centralised, trusted gate keeper is the goal of the whole decentralised finance movement
• If we imagine a future where some decentralised digital coin, token, or cryptocurrency can replace a portion of the need for blind trust in a centralised trust cartel, how much upside is there left in the market right now?

When you start considering what the world is currently paying for banking and auditing services (Savings accounts, Checking accounts, loans, trust services, bookkeeping and other accounting services, etc.) you can better appreciate the threats and opportunities to ETH.

In 2020 the combined "tax" paid to these institutions was $2.68 trillion. To put that in context, that is between 2% to 3% of world GDP. That is our collective banking tax. Looking at the top accounting firms, In 2020 we paid a "tax" of $87.09 billion to these bean counters.
Any ability to reduce this tax while allowing more people and firms access to sound financial services is a net benefit to humanity

A portion of all fees spent using the trust rent-seeking gatekeepers of the traditional financial economy could in the future accrue to these decentralized networks.

If you take the median price/revenue of ETH over the past year as an approximation of forward looking price/revenue, you can begin to estimate potential ETH price based on a percentage capture of the global banking and auditing revenues.

Even if DeFi manages to capture 0.10% of the yearly revenue generated by these banks and accounting firms - you're looking at a 2x ETH price from today (again assuming median price/revenue for ETH)

If this doesn't make you bullish - maybe reading up on EIP1559 and PoS may. In any case, I wish everyone the best of luck. Oh and don't use leverage or you'll get f*cking rekt like most people did last night.

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I think Bitcoins place in this ecosystem is secure and its value will continue to grow, as the baseline / reserve cryptocurrency.

You have put an awful lot of emphasis on ETH though here. I don't think this is necessarily correct and don't ever see ETH as the one and only home for DeFi in a winner takes all scenario. I think what is more likely is an eco system of many blockchains, with eventual interoperability, ETHs fees will remain (relatively) high but this is in return for its superior security, I think there will be a spectrum of blockchains to cater across the board, of which ETH will be one part of.