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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

nitrousflame

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Jeez, kudos to those that have the patience to reply to all the comments in this thread. As someone who has been around since early 2013, I must say that it's reassuring that the same arguments keep popping up every cycle.

Just gonna leave this here:
View: https://twitter.com/craigwarmke/status/1349712696401387520


Vires in numeris. :bicep:
 
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James Fake

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Hey @James Fake , Do you still believe the above is true?

Yes to all your questions. The bottom at $20,000 was just a ballpark I threw out, but trying to give out a point that is ~90% drop from $200,000 or whatever the top may eventually be.

All things works in cycles; and inflationary sensitive assets/hedges have their season.

As someone who has been around since early 2013, I must say that it's reassuring that the same arguments keep popping up every cycle.

The triple O G.
 

James Fake

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So.. whether you're a fan of Biden or not; there are some very interesting things going on.

Biden elected by public = Bitcoin pumped and broke all time high.
Biden officially elected by govt = Bitcoin pumped.
Trump impeached = Bitcoin pumped.
Biden inaugurated = (Bitcoin is currently coiling up with higher highs and higher lows on a retest bounce in a big consolidation range).. I'm going to say its safe to assume; Bitcoin pumps big tomm.

Here's the BIG kicker though:
Biden wants and nominated Gary Gensler (a MIT professor of blockchain and digital assets) to SEC Chairman.

We have an inflation spike scare right around the corner and have early big money moving/moved some of their portfolio towards inflation sensitive assets over the past months and ramping up in the past weeks (look how much Greyscale has accumulated and getting money thrown to them from big big money).

I... Don't.... Know.... How... Much.... More.... Bullish.... Signs.... We... Can.... Get... That... Bitcoin... Is... Headed.... To.... $240,000.
 

csalvato

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I... Don't.... Know.... How... Much.... More.... Bullish.... Signs.... We... Can.... Get... That... Bitcoin... Is... Headed.... To.... $240,000.
You're clearly ignoring all the signs that we are going to zero, like careless early dabblers losing their wallet keys :hilarious:

(^ sarcasm, clearly)
 

James Fake

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So..... this is kind of the timeline I got from staring at a corner for hours. (I'll try to spare the super details)

1. Bitcoin going into the $40k's = Biden inaugurated

2. Bitcoin pumping into $60k's = Bitcoin ETF becomes a very real possibility after YEARS as word gets around of the new SEC Chairman being super-pro-crypto since he freakin' teaches it at MIT.

3. Bitcoin then corrects back to $40k or so.

4. Bitcoin pumps back to $60k's = Inflation data for January is released and it looks.... concerning. Even more of the super-savvy institutional money trying to stay a step ahead moves into the inflation sensitive asset.

5. Bitcoin pumps into $90k's = Same inflation data is now finally spreading around in the retail communities and more and more people talk about it, and most retail finally get a grasp of how inflation actually works. FOMO is right around the corner as people begin to pile in cause at that point; with the inflation numbers right there, it's hard to deny Bitcoin won't be going to $1 Million (as most YouTubers and "experts" will be claiming by then and at that psychological stage)

6. Bitcoin pumps into $200k's = February inflation data is released in mid-March. This data looks terrible towards inflation likely going to do a huge spike for March. Now "inflation" is the buzzword around the crypto community and just investor world in general as people are FOMO'ing left and right into Bitcoin.

7. Bitcoin stays in the $200k's range bouncing around for a couple weeks = THE TOP is actually put in already, as FOMO retail and world awaits inflation data on March that will be released in April.

8. Bitcoin leaves the $200k's range and begins decline as it enters "Denial" and "Return to Normal" stage = March inflation data released and indeed it is a big unexpected spike in inflation metrics. However, it's always a Sell The News event as the smart big money took off with 400% profits as FOMO retailers were awaiting. The smart money knows the FED will act immediately and curb the inflation therefore the inflation cycle likely begins the other way as the new business cycle begins.

9. Bitcoin enters a 1-2 year correction = Just like last time, all those FOMO'ers jumped on the bus at the last stop and then refused to believe (denial) the ride was over.

10. In 2023 or 2024, Bitcoin starts another Bull Market. But this time; ETHERERUM IS TO STEAL THE SHOW and the great Flippening happens = Gary Gensler, the new super-pro-crypto-MIT-professor-who-freakin-teaches-blockchain-and-digital-assets-at-MIT-of-all-places, is the new SEC Chairman and they finally feel it is time to release a Bitcoin ETF.

11. That bull run ends in 2028 as we near another Great Depression caused by overstimulating (no choice) the economy during Covid. Not just the US as many other countries did the same. This is an exact play by play replica of how the Big Japanese Housing and Stock market crash happened.

Stimmy doesn't work this time cause stimmy is what caused it in the first place. Wealth gap was only accelerated in Covid and continued to grow bigger and bigger throughout the Roaring 2020's... Great Depression creates Gotham City-like places. What two US cities put out the most GDP? And what do they share in common with Gotham City?

The doomsayers now (or rather the mainstream buzzword) is to say the US Dollar will crash soon and this is why Bitcoin is going up. They are about 10 years too early.

The US Dollar is not crapping out right now due to money supply (that is just a very small part of it). The US Dollar is crapping because we sucked during 2020 and did AWFUL in handling Covid and our economy suffered worse than other countries (comparatively); therefore other countries lost faith in the US Economy strength and devalued the dollar compared to other country's currencies. There is only one way up from here, and the USA Economy will be ROARING back.. and so will our Dollar as other countries in the EU are hitting major struggle walls as we are looking up, nobody will trust China fiat, and welp... the US Dollar will reign on top again near the end of this year of 2021.

The 2029 Great Depression is when the US Dollar will shit bricks, and also when Bitcoin will legitimately have a Global VALUE WORTHY of a $1Million. (many countries, not just the US, enter a Great Depression; and ones that don't go under suffer greatly cause they lose our revenues).

12. I will shit my pants if all this actually happens
. Hopefully I'm on the right side of the whole thing as it plays out.

Side Note: This thread will go crazy when we reach around #5 the $90,000 range as "inflation" gains traction as a buzzword and can't be ignored. Users outside of the typical 4-5 we saw in this thread for the entire past year begin showing up left and right asking when the dip is. I will also Quote this exact thing and post it in the thread as it happens lol.
 
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csalvato

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So..... this is kind of the timeline I got from staring at a corner for hours. (I'll try to spare the super details)

1. Bitcoin going into the $40k's = Biden inaugurated

2. Bitcoin pumping into $60k's = Bitcoin ETF becomes a very real possibility after YEARS as word gets around of the new SEC Chairman being super-pro-crypto since he freakin' teaches it at MIT.

3. Bitcoin then corrects back to $40k or so.

4. Bitcoin pumps back to $60k's = Inflation data for January is released and it looks.... concerning. Even more of the super-savvy institutional money trying to stay a step ahead moves into the inflation sensitive asset.

5. Bitcoin pumps into $90k's = Same inflation data is now finally spreading around in the retail communities and more and more people talk about it, and most retail finally get a grasp of how inflation actually works. FOMO is right around the corner as people begin to pile in cause at that point; with the inflation numbers right there, it's hard to deny Bitcoin won't be going to $1 Million (as most YouTubers and "experts" will be claiming by then and at that psychological stage)

6. Bitcoin pumps into $200k's = February inflation data is released in mid-March. This data looks terrible towards inflation likely going to do a huge spike for March. Now "inflation" is the buzzword around the crypto community and just investor world in general as people are FOMO'ing left and right into Bitcoin.

7. Bitcoin stays in the $200k's range bouncing around for a couple weeks = THE TOP is actually put in already, as FOMO retail and world awaits inflation data on March that will be released in April.

8. Bitcoin leaves the $200k's range and begins decline as it enters "Denial" and "Return to Normal" stage = March inflation data released and indeed it is a big unexpected spike in inflation metrics. However, it's always a Sell The News event as the smart big money took off with 400% profits as FOMO retailers were awaiting. The smart money knows the FED will act immediately and curb the inflation therefore the inflation cycle likely begins the other way as the new business cycle begins.

9. Bitcoin enters a 1-2 year correction = Just like last time, all those FOMO'ers jumped on the bus at the last stop and then refused to believe (denial) the ride was over.

10. In 2023 or 2024, Bitcoin starts another Bull Market. But this time; ETHERERUM IS TO STEAL THE SHOW and the great Flippening happens = Gary Gensler, the new super-pro-crypto-MIT-professor-who-freakin-teaches-blockchain-and-digital-assets-at-MIT-of-all-places, is the new SEC Chairman and they finally feel it is time to release a Bitcoin ETF.

11. That bull run ends in 2028 as we near another Great Depression caused by overstimulating (no choice) the economy during Covid. Not just the US as many other countries did the same. This is an exact play by play replica of how the Big Japanese Housing and Stock market crash happened.

Stimmy doesn't work this time cause stimmy is what caused it in the first place. Wealth gap was only accelerated in Covid and continued to grow bigger and bigger throughout the Roaring 2020's... Great Depression creates Gotham City-like places. What two US cities put out the most GDP? And what do they share in common with Gotham City?

The doomsayers now (or rather the mainstream buzzword) is to say the US Dollar will crash soon and this is why Bitcoin is going up. They are about 10 years too early.

The US Dollar is not crapping out right now due to money supply (that is just a very small part of it). The US Dollar is crapping because we sucked during 2020 and did AWFUL in handling Covid and our economy suffered worse than other countries (comparatively); therefore other countries lost faith in the US Economy strength and devalued the dollar compared to other country's currencies. There is only one way up from here, and the USA Economy will be ROARING back.. and so will our Dollar as other countries in the EU are hitting major struggle walls as we are looking up, nobody will trust China fiat, and welp... the US Dollar will reign on top again near the end of this year of 2021.

The 2029 Great Depression is when the US Dollar will shit bricks, and also when Bitcoin will legitimately have a Global VALUE WORTHY of a $1Million. (many countries, not just the US, enter a Great Depression; and ones that don't go under suffer greatly cause they lose our revenues).

12. I will shit my pants if all this actually happens
. Hopefully I'm on the right side of the whole thing as it plays out.

Side Note: This thread will go crazy when we reach around #5 the $90,000 range as "inflation" gains traction as a buzzword and can't be ignored. Users outside of the typical 4-5 we saw in this thread for the entire past year begin showing up left and right asking when the dip is. I will also Quote this exact thing and post it in the thread as it happens lol.
I hope you’re right, though it feels like lots of huge leaps and jumps to conclusions, particularly past March. I think 240k by March to be highly unlikely. If it does happen, a massive correction and bear market would def follow.
 
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GPM

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I am looking for the parabolic spike to "the moon", which is where I want to cash out. Once it crashes to a new stable high I am buying back in using what I sold out at. When this all goes round and round again in 2024 I will be sitting pretty.... I missed half the equation in 2017/2018. I won't miss it again.
 

csalvato

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I am looking for the parabolic spike to "the moon", which is where I want to cash out. Once it crashes to a new stable high I am buying back in using what I sold out at. When this all goes round and round again in 2024 I will be sitting pretty.... I missed half the equation in 2017/2018. I won't miss it again.
Yeah that’s my intention as well, just horribly difficult to time when breaking through ATHs
 
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Timmy C

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If your trying to time the top then buy back in, it probably isn't a good idea if you haven't held more than a year.

At least not in australia.

CGT is 50% that means you would have to time the top and bottom almost perfectly to actually end up with more bitcoin than you started.

I am holding.
 
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Hai

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If your trying to time the top, then buy back in; it probably isn't a good idea if you haven't held more than a year.

At least not in Australia.

CGT is 50%, which means you would have to time the top and bottom almost perfectly actually to end up with more bitcoin than you started.

I am holding. I don't see the need to create a tax liability if you don't have to.

If you need the cash, sure.
I disagree. Tax liability likely not higher than the amount it will crash. Imagine holding a bag for years underwater.
 

Timmy C

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I disagree. Tax liability likely not higher than the amount it will crash. Imagine holding a bag for years underwater
What's the point?

Seems dumb to sell if you don't need the money.

You would have to time the top and bottom so closely that it's so unlikely you'll coke out with less bitcoin than before, most likely.

Sell at the top

Buy at the bottom.

If you don't do that perfectly, your left with less bitcoin than before.

Everyone has a different situation. If your a long term holder, it makes no sense to sell anything.

What else would I do with the money?

Nothing.

Holding.
 

Dora Wi

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Beating XRP is kind of expected.

XRP will fade away into worthlessness.
You might be right. For a while there I thought it can still recover, many people still seemed supportive of XRP after the lawsuit emerged, and they might still win it. But it looks less and less likely that they will win this and many are dumping.
 
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Hai

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What's the point?

Seems dumb to sell if you don't need the money.

You would have to time the top and bottom so closely that it's so unlikely you'll coke out with less bitcoin than before, most likely.

Sell at the top

Buy at the bottom.

If you don't do that perfectly, your left with less bitcoin than before.

Everyone has a different situation. If your a long term holder, it makes no sense to sell anything.

What else would I do with the money?

Nothing.

Holding.

I would not buy back in at all. If you can exit at the cycle top, it doesn't make sense to hold into a 70-98% drawdown.
 

Timmy C

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I would not buy back in at all. If you can exit at the cycle top, it doesn't make sense to hold into a 70-98% drawdown.
It's clear we have 2 different mentalities about this.

That's fine.
 
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csalvato

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I don't know why you wouldn't be long crypto, stocks, real estate, and gold over the next few years.

They are going to print so much money.

I have no desire to stack cash, at least no more than I'll need that is.

same. I want anything but fiat for the next 20 years. We are in for a hell of an inflation ride. Holding usd or other fiat is a terrible mistake.

don’t like crypto? Ok, get highly leveraged in real estate.

now is the time
 

Andy Black

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same. I want anything but fiat for the next 20 years. We are in for a hell of an inflation ride. Holding usd or other fiat is a terrible mistake.

don’t like crypto? Ok, get highly leveraged in real estate.

now is the time
I had considered selling my remaining couple of little rental properties, but decided to keep them for just this reason. I see prices of comparable properties are higher than I expected already. I’ll not get into crypto as I’ve other fish to fry, but I’ll keep an eye on what’s happening at the macro level.
 
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Ravens_Shadow

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James Fake

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Alright... well; thats out the way. Saw some really, really promising price action this morning and I am for sure, underlyingly we are very bullish coming out this consolidation range.

So here's what I see for the coming 24 hours...

We touch $36,000 and then begin a downtrend down with the bottom coming in around $33,200 early tomorrow.

Then WE MOON....
 

AceVentures

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If you want to read up on how terrible tether really is for crypto. Article is a wild ride! The Bit Short: Inside Crypto’s Doomsday Machine

On binance you don't have a direct Crypto-->USD fiat channel. Meaning you can't connect to your bank account as you can on coinbase.

It makes sense to me therefore that the flow of crypto spreads across stablecoins instead of fiat USD, with tether being a larger stablecoin market player.

I think there is evidence of market manipulation by stablecoin players. At least the tether coin isn't the only one in play in the crypto space. And the people holding Bitcoin, those coins you don't see flowing to anything.

The US dollar and the guys running that coin don't give a shit about inflating the numbers. Just last year they printed 30% of all the USD in existence, and most people's house and life savings are in the same playing field as it.
 
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AceVentures

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You know what trips me out though? I think about stablecoins as banks. And then compare them to banks.

Does your bank have every one of your dollars in reserve? Or are they graciously selling you on under their management to actually gamble with your money?

I couldn't even withdraw all my money from my bank if I wanted to - I gotta make a bunch of calls, talk to some robots, talk to some dudes in a third world country, "authenticate" myself against what's rightfully mine, schedule a meeting in person, wear a F*cking mask over my face and rub alcohol over my skin, and hope they don't "catch me" on a recent change of home address, cause they'd othewise lock up me funds for another 10 days due to their home address policies.

I kinda like it in the crypto space... that freedom has inherent value to me, and I'll gladly continue to adapt to and expand my use of decentralized services.
 

Ravens_Shadow

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You know what trips me out though? I think about stablecoins as banks. And then compare them to banks.

Does your bank have every one of your dollars in reserve? Or are they graciously selling you on under their management to actually gamble with your money?

I couldn't even withdraw all my money from my bank if I wanted to - I gotta make a bunch of calls, talk to some robots, talk to some dudes in a third world country, "authenticate" myself against what's rightfully mine, schedule a meeting in person, wear a f*cking mask over my face and rub alcohol over my skin, and hope they don't "catch me" on a recent change of home address, cause they'd othewise lock up me funds for another 10 days due to their home address policies.

I kinda like it in the crypto space... that freedom has inherent value to me, and I'll gladly continue to adapt to and expand my use of decentralized services.
But then you can't withdraw crypto coins for physical currency like you were just alluding to haha.
 

AceVentures

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But then you can't withdraw crypto coins for physical currency like you were just alluding to haha.

You could if you wanted to - there are various exchanges available, and you can transfer between different wallets very quickly, especially if you use faster and cheaper transfer-rate coins for your transfers.

My investment in crypto is long term - I won't be using bitcoin for any purchases, or converting it to physical currency. That would assume I deem that physical currency more valuable than the bitcoin itself.

edit: I also don't own any tether.
 
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Timmy C

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If you think tether will affect Bitcoin to such a negative degree even with the fact you have institutions buying bitcoin like no tomorrow.

I don't know what to say other than

Cool, good luck.

The Tether FUD makes me laugh, as even if it's true, that's what banks have been doing for year's.
 

Timmy C

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csalvato

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I’m not in crypto and I don’t know as much about it as I should, but be careful boys:

I don't know much about guns, but all you trained police officers better be careful with them.

I don't know much about riding bucking broncos, but you rodeo stars better be careful on them.

I don't know much about starting a business, but you business owners better be careful you don't lose it all.

I don't know much about owning a home, but you guys better be careful your house doesn't get set on fire.

I don't know much about smoking weed, but it will literally kill you so be careful.

I don't know much about driving, but be careful you don't die in a car accident

I don't know much about fighting fires, but you should be careful if you're a firefighter running into a burning building.

I don't know much about construction, but you should be careful that your foundation is installed properly
 
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