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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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Sethamus

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so I got a bit excited and bought at 40k, I am fairly new to this and didn't want to miss out since I missed the train last month at 18k. Is my best strategy to hodl now, and maybe buy some more now?
What exchange did you purchase on?
 

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Cris1011

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As a young college student, that's probably what I would do. At a young age, you can tolerate a huge amount of risk.
Yeah I am 20 studying engineering in Texas.

Risk tolerance should be high but at the same time I don't want to lose money on investments.
 

mguerra

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We will have an alt season in my opinion yes.

Otherwise I wouldn't be positioned in some of them.

In regards to your coins. No one has any idea man.

Me personally, I would not hold on to them and plan on selling them at some point. I have already taken back my initial investment on my alts and now most of them are risk-free moonshots.

Altcoins dropped some 99% at the end of 2017, no guarantee they will get back to those highs, most won't. So keep in mind, what you put in alts can disappear overnight. Asses your risk tolerance, and study your countries tax code CAREFULLY.

Many crypto to crypto trades are taxable events. You can be left with a huge tax bill and no fiat to pay them, all the while your alts have evaporated into worthlessness.

I know what of mine are investments and what I am speculating on. It is best to have a long term time horizon in this market.

If you haven't invested in crypto before, you will most likely get eaten alive.

Just my thoughts.

Thanks for the tip on taxes brother. It's much appreciated.

Ended up touching $30.2k, and luck has been by my side as I caught something very nice to it. I'm hoping over the next 24 hours my entry is so low inside the long bottom green wick that it doesn't even get close to getting retested.

Anywho... $34,500 happened, didn't hold, and if this $30.2k holds, we should be green light for $45k (more likely $50k though). I suspect a slower (over 2-3 weeks) for it to crawly upwards and upwards to $45-50k.

Once that happens though... it's time to get out imo. Reduce exposure as a bigger pullback is to be fully expected after that. Once we survive that bigger pullback (which could be March/April) before we bottom from that... it will be green light and rockets away to $60k+ (late spring).



Yes, it is. Specifically; it's when Bitcoin pumps then pulls back to a strong support line and holds it. That's usually the Go light for the Alts as it deems it fairly safe that Bitcoin was not doing some blow off top.

I think only a select few will return to visit all time highs; the stronger ones from 2017. Eth, Xlm, Ltc, Ada, Eos.

Thanks my man. I'm sticking to the stronger ones this time too.

Lets see how this unfolds.
 
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Sethamus

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Very limited options (Buy or Sell) on Coinbase. If buying for the long term and not looking to get in and out without having to watch daily then coinbase would work.

Consider another option if you are going to try and play these swings that are being talked about(exchanges that offer stop loss orders, limit orders, etc).
Like @csalvato mentioned, you need to decide what type you are.
 

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The average confirmation time for a Bitcoin transaction was 12.74 minutes in October 2020. The effect of the longer transaction time may not be an issue for cryptocurrency speculators, but it may make Bitcoin an unattractive medium of exchange.

source: Bitcoin transaction confirmation time 2020 | Statista

Given this, Bitcoin as it is can't become a currency for everyday small purchases. This was also discussed by crypto experts like Nick Szabo:

Nick Szabo: The first layer is the blockchain itself; the Bitcoin we call the Capital B blockchain doing the secure transactions and the ones you can do from Albania to Zimbabwe without a trusted third party going through the blockchain. The second layer and the ability to grow the transactions per second on that is very limited. You can grow the value per transaction quite substantially, but the ability to grow transactions for the second is limited because those have a certain size and you have to make copies of them around it and so forth.

Tim Ferriss: I see, so the second layer would be for the coffee or the pizza.

Nick Szabo: Yeah. And so as this grows, as more and more people start using this, they’re competing for that limited block space and the fees are going up. So if you want to have a up of coffee without having to pay as much fee as you paid for the coffee, in two or three or four years from now you’re going to have to use one of these side chain or what I call peripheral financial networks that it’s collateralized on the blockchain. It’s almost as trust minimized as the blockchain itself but it’s for lower value transactions that only periodically settle on the blockchain.

So, can Bitcoin ever become something else than digital gold or do we need another cryptocurrency for everyday purchases where transactions can be processed as quickly as right now through Visa/Mastercard?

Can Ethereum serve this function or is it also limited?

How do you account for the risk that none of the currently available cryptocurrencies may work for this purpose and something else, much better, emerges in, say, two years and dominates the market?

Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?
 

maverick

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source: Bitcoin transaction confirmation time 2020 | Statista

Given this, Bitcoin as it is can't become a currency for everyday small purchases. This was also discussed by crypto experts like Nick Szabo:



So, can Bitcoin ever become something else than digital gold or do we need another cryptocurrency for everyday purchases where transactions can be processed as quickly as right now through Visa/Mastercard?

Can Ethereum serve this function or is it also limited?

How do you account for the risk that none of the currently available cryptocurrencies may work for this purpose and something else, much better, emerges in, say, two years and dominates the market?

Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?
Some very good questions.

I believe Ethereum will serve as the foundation on which these innovations will be built. A new token could arise that serves the needs of payment providers (such as Visa/Mastercard). Using roll-ups and eventually Ethereum 2.0 will yield enough txs per second.
 

Kevin88660

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source: Bitcoin transaction confirmation time 2020 | Statista

Given this, Bitcoin as it is can't become a currency for everyday small purchases. This was also discussed by crypto experts like Nick Szabo:



So, can Bitcoin ever become something else than digital gold or do we need another cryptocurrency for everyday purchases where transactions can be processed as quickly as right now through Visa/Mastercard?

Can Ethereum serve this function or is it also limited?

How do you account for the risk that none of the currently available cryptocurrencies may work for this purpose and something else, much better, emerges in, say, two years and dominates the market?

Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?
The world would probably transit to an asset backed currency.

The Dollar replaced Sterling when Old Europe lost most of their gold to U.S. fighting two world wars.

When Uncle Sam got stuck in Vietnam war and post war spending deficit the gold backing was removed. Kissinger reached a deal with the Saudi to allow them to jack up the price of oil without retaliation, in return they use dollar oil payment.

Oil is too small a market to back the dollar today. Today fiat is backed by debt and liability management worldwide. As long as treasuries bills can pay the interest and dollar can be used to pay down liabilities (rental, debt interest) people will continue to hold. Of course nations are more skeptical of the dollar these days and hold a lot less than necessary.

It is a fragile system because U.S. needs to be in perpetual debt and consumption to send out the money oversea to facilitate global use. This creates an unsustainable debt bubble that leads to either bankruptcy or hyperinflation. Once U.S. fail to service the debt other nations will dump the dollar. Once U.S. inflate too much other nations will also dump the dollar.

If the system gets broken people around tbe world will be much more skeptical towards something that isn't backed by anything. The prerequisite to running a “scam like” system is being honest for the first 20-30 years until everyone trusts you and there isnt any better alternative.

As for crypto there is still an accessibility ceiling. Crypto is still a geek’s toy for men under 40. It can still grow 50 times within this market but there is a roof to prevent it getting further adoption. Most of the money and assets are in the hands of boomers generation and this is the generation that still struggle with traditional online banking.
 

maverick

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Don't necessarily agree with the above. The main reason for USD (or any other currency) to be asset-backed is to enable governments to print money when they need to e.g. using it to control inflation/deflation levels OR funding a war on terrorism.

In theory, this could be substituted by a cryptocurrency. Issuing more when needed, using it to control inflation/deflation etc.

The main thing that is currently stopping this is that people are being paid in USD. This can also be substituted though.
 

Timmy C

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source: Bitcoin transaction confirmation time 2020 | Statista

Given this, Bitcoin as it is can't become a currency for everyday small purchases. This was also discussed by crypto experts like Nick Szabo:



So, can Bitcoin ever become something else than digital gold or do we need another cryptocurrency for everyday purchases where transactions can be processed as quickly as right now through Visa/Mastercard?

Can Ethereum serve this function or is it also limited?

How do you account for the risk that none of the currently available cryptocurrencies may work for this purpose and something else, much better, emerges in, say, two years and dominates the market?

Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?


Well in my view Bitcoin is already far superior to gold and should easily eclipse it's market cap, so it isn't much of a risk the way I see it. And yes, bitcoin can still become something more than gold.

Like anything, you hold other assets. It's not like my entire net worth is in this asset class.

I also take profits and diversify them into other assets and or stack the cash in my bank account.
 

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Timmy C

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source: Bitcoin transaction confirmation time 2020 | Statista

Given this, Bitcoin as it is can't become a currency for everyday small purchases. This was also discussed by crypto experts like Nick Szabo:



So, can Bitcoin ever become something else than digital gold or do we need another cryptocurrency for everyday purchases where transactions can be processed as quickly as right now through Visa/Mastercard?

Can Ethereum serve this function or is it also limited?

How do you account for the risk that none of the currently available cryptocurrencies may work for this purpose and something else, much better, emerges in, say, two years and dominates the market?

Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?

People also make a common mistake in interpreting all of these assets as trying to be a currency. It's understandable given the name ''cryptocurrency''.

Many are tackling supply chain issues and identifying counterfeit goods.
 

Timmy C

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Another question: when (not if) the world loses confidence in USD, do you guys think crypto has a chance or is it still too early given not enough trust, infrastructure, and ease of use? If not crypto, what can at least temporarily replace USD?

Well, let's look at Venezuela, shall we.

If your government-backed currency was getting devalued at such a rate as this. Would you care that Bitcoin was slow? probably not as your buying power still remains.

Would you care that payments were expensive? Nope, that expense is well worth the cost.

Even if Bitcoin or litecoin isn't ready, it's still better.
 
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Timmy C

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Does anyone else not agree that the lightning network is already amazing and fast?
Looks like Bitcoin has already solved the scale issue most likely.
 

Kevin88660

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Well, let's look at Venezuela, shall we.

If your government-backed currency was getting devalued at such a rate as this. Would you care that Bitcoin was slow? probably not as your buying power still remains.

Would you care that payments were expensive? Nope, that expense is well worth the cost.

Even if Bitcoin or litecoin isn't ready, it's still better.
A few years back it is true.

But stablecoin could be eating the lunch. Those living in Venezuela can hold crypto backed by US dollar.
 

Frinys

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Does anyone else not agree that the lightning network is already amazing and fast?
Looks like Bitcoin has already solved the scale issue most likely.
I agree. The lightning network is amazing and fast. But it's overly complex and much more prone to double-spend attacks compared to Bitcoin.

I rather think that the future for Bitcoin is to act as a security layer for second layers, like the Omni layer and VeriBlock's Proof-of-Proof protocol.
 

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Almost 2,300 average monthly developers worked on Ethereum across the third quarter of 2020, with Bitcoin in second at a bit under 400.
 

James Fake

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I think we are going to have an alt run over the span of the next 2-3 weeks. Entering positions in this morning:
1) ETH: $1030
2) XLM: $.2710
 
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Timmy C

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GPM

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Look to the future, eventually something will be backed by the people who believe in it. If a billion people are trading in some currency it is backed by those billion people saying that it is worth something. Crypto has the first chance in the history of man of being that something. Keep in mind we are barely 10 years into this.

To always think that something has to be backed by a country or government is foolish. No government has ever stood since its inception, and to think one will is just ignoring thousands of years of history.
 

James Fake

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Looks like your order was just filled. Are you grouping ETH in with the alts?

Yeah.. for this bull run; I am sticking with mainly just ETH and XLM. XRP was kicked off the list unfort lol.

I think this bull run cycle is unique in that it is more about Bitcoin as a store of value against the inflating currencies around the world rather than blockchain itself like 2017.

So I'm just sticking with ETH and XLM, not venturing too far into blockchain itself. I will likely dip my toes in alts in the next bear market as I think blockchain by then will be a big force of technology that will have gained significant traction in actual use cases and that coming bull run will be back on blockchain: medical records, more use of currency, some type of cool mass use by mobile phone users, or whatever inventions that doesn't even exist yet, or applications of blockchain that hasn't even been thought about.

So far; ETH is so far ahead of everything.. as long as they keep developing and improving it.. maybe we'll be on Ethererum 4.0 by the next bull run cycle? I can't imagine what that'll have..
 

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Guys...

Any and every analysis I do; and in every scenario, the end result is nearly the same:

BITCOIN TOPS OUT AT $240,000

How ironic is it that the Tulip Mania finally popped when one was worth a house.

Another way to put it is like this:

A tulip popped when worth 10,000 hours of skilled labor. Let's say a skilled person makes about $50,000/year. That's roughly $24/hour x 10,000 = $240,000.



Note: Not that I am not a firm believer in blockchain tech and crypto as a currency, but many legendary early stage assets have "popped" before; in that it's price (or even business structure itself) wasn't worth anything for a long, long time and only the best make it back and above.

Examples: Amazon popped in dot com bubble. Apple popped. Tesla is much the same, it'll eventually pop but roar back. Same as I see with Bitcoin. It will TOP and go through probably it's longest stretch of bear market ever, (last was late 2017 to late 2020) maybe 4 or 5 years.

Maybe in Bitcoin's case; it tops out at $240,000 and crashes 90% back to $20,000 and stays in that zone for a long, long time. It's still actually worth quite a bit...
 
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Timmy C

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Guys...

Any and every analysis I do; and in every scenario, the end result is nearly the same:

BITCOIN TOPS OUT AT $240,000

How ironic is it that the Tulip Mania finally popped when one was worth a house.

Another way to put it is like this:

A tulip popped when worth 10,000 hours of skilled labor. Let's say a skilled person makes about $50,000/year. That's roughly $24/hour x 10,000 = $240,000.



Note: Not that I am not a firm believer in blockchain tech and crypto as a currency, but many legendary early stage assets have "popped" before; in that it's price (or even business structure itself) wasn't worth anything for a long, long time and only the best make it back and above.

Examples: Amazon popped in dot com bubble. Apple popped. Tesla is much the same, it'll eventually pop but roar back. Same as I see with Bitcoin. It will TOP and go through probably it's longest stretch of bear market ever, (last was late 2017 to late 2020) maybe 4 or 5 years.

Maybe in Bitcoin's case; it tops out at $240,000 and crashes 90% back to $20,000 and stays in that zone for a long, long time. It's still actually worth quite a bit...
I am not as optimistic of the top being that high but I am more optimistic about the bottom than yourself.

Our market bottom in my opinion for the bear market will be around $40,000 based on the Stock To Flow model.
 

Timmy C

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Guys...

Any and every analysis I do; and in every scenario, the end result is nearly the same:

BITCOIN TOPS OUT AT $240,000

How ironic is it that the Tulip Mania finally popped when one was worth a house.

Another way to put it is like this:

A tulip popped when worth 10,000 hours of skilled labor. Let's say a skilled person makes about $50,000/year. That's roughly $24/hour x 10,000 = $240,000.



Note: Not that I am not a firm believer in blockchain tech and crypto as a currency, but many legendary early stage assets have "popped" before; in that it's price (or even business structure itself) wasn't worth anything for a long, long time and only the best make it back and above.

Examples: Amazon popped in dot com bubble. Apple popped. Tesla is much the same, it'll eventually pop but roar back. Same as I see with Bitcoin. It will TOP and go through probably it's longest stretch of bear market ever, (last was late 2017 to late 2020) maybe 4 or 5 years.

Maybe in Bitcoin's case; it tops out at $240,000 and crashes 90% back to $20,000 and stays in that zone for a long, long time. It's still actually worth quite a bit...


What analysis makes you think $20,000 is the bottom of the next cycle?

Every time in the past when we broke the previous ATH, we never seen it again.
 

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all we know is that no one knows anything...too many experts calling tops and bottoms. Create a strategy that works for you and which you will be able to sleep with.
 

James Fake

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What analysis makes you think $20,000 is the bottom of the next cycle?

Every time in the past when we broke the previous ATH, we never seen it again.

Good points, it could very well be $40,000.

My thoughts on throwing out $20,000 is that is is about 90%'ish away from what I think will be The Top.

The Top mainly comes from me thinking mainly that this is the Perfect Environment for Bitcoin to moon to $240,000 and those conditions are based upon a 'once in a multi-generational' event such as a global pandemic.

It's really all one big synchronized game (which btw; I have to spend about 50+ hours studying every single last one of these 'cause and effects' and reverse engineer it just to narrow down a time frame to sell The Top lol)

I'm going to post the chain of events/things list in the next post as I feel it is quite interesting..
 

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The Chain Of Events To Determine How, What, and When Bitcoin will eventually reach The Top...


Pandemic Covid. (Global just like Bitcoin)

equals

Constraining Conditions That Severely Weaken Economies

equals

Stimulus and Interest Rates

equals

Inflation + Acceleration of Business and Market Cycles + A Rush To Equities & Other Assets & Hedges

equals

Flood of New Retail "Dumb Money" Traders (with historical buying power funded by stimmys)

equals

Marketing and Vouching (shilling lol) by Institution & High Profile Investors

equals

drumroll.... Bitcoin Price
 

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The Chain Of Events To Determine How, What, and When Bitcoin will eventually reach The Top...


Pandemic Covid. (Global just like Bitcoin)

equals

Constraining Conditions That Severely Weaken Economies

equals

Stimulus and Interest Rates

equals

Inflation + Acceleration of Business and Market Cycles + A Rush To Equities & Other Assets & Hedges

equals

Flood of New Retail "Dumb Money" Traders (with historical buying power funded by stimmys)

equals

Marketing and Vouching (shilling lol) by Institution & High Profile Investors

equals

drumroll.... Bitcoin Price

Do you not feel we’re too far into the mania phase to reach such crazy heights as $240k though?

I’m still working while running my business and everyone was talking about Bitcoin today at work. There’s been a story broadcasted on BBC here in the UK how some guy has lost something like $250 million because he threw his old laptop out before it blew up or something? Haha.

IMO everything is too hyped up for it to keep rising much more, which I know sounds counterintuitive, but if you subscribe to the saying “Be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful”, it makes more sense!
 

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