Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Mathuin]

 

[Xeon]

how we all feeling?

Sell the house, assets, cars, pets, wife, kids, savings, everything and go ALL IN on crypto, buy the dip and tread where others are fearful to. Ignore the market and charts and diamond hands all the way. WAGMI.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

This. People should read this twice.

I’m fortunate to get asked to speak at some events and universities. One question keeps coming up a lot: I’m asked to predict the future. What do I know, right?

Well… I know one thing. I chose my business because it’s been around for as long as history itself. Any product that was around for the past 100 years is likely to be around for another 50. Think items like forks, spoons, clothes, shoes etc.

When I gamble on a new startup (and lose), when I throw some money at crypto (and values plummet) - I know it was a distinct possibility. It’s OK. What is not OK is to bet the farm on something like this without being smarter (or more knowledgeable) than the market, which is a pretty high bar.

That’s why I love “old school” businesses. As @thechosen1 and @Kak discussed a long while back. Those businesses look hard! But hard is good. Easy is bad.

What drew people to crypto was its potential asymmetry while offering IMMEDIATE passivity. A small investment could yield 20000% returns. I invested $1000 in DOGE and now its worth $150,000!

What the average person fails to understand is that a Fastlane business also offers asymmetry, but with the promise of FUTURE passivity. Passivity comes from activity ... in other words, WORK.

You can start a business with $1000 and have it turn into $10M 5 years later, and you have a big element of control as well.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

One is based on his influence and decision making…

The other is not.

Come on man… still hoping and praying for the big break?

To clarify, I hope everyone makes a small fortune in BTC.

But lets be clear: it's a speculative investment, just like the 100+ stocks and crypto I own.

When one of those stocks makes me 40%, I don't post about it like I'm about to get rich.

I actively create wealth with my business ventures that I control.
I passively grow wealth with my investments that I do NOT control, like stocks and bitcoin.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Kinda quiet in here, wonder why...

In the meantime, how much has your business grown?

How many more customers have you acquired?

How much $$ have you stacked atop your business valuation?

If you sold your company now, what's it worth?

Are you making money while you sleep?

Or, are you still patiently waiting and hoping for some miraculous price explosion with something you have absolutely no control over?

 

[Coalission]

But that isn't what a bubble is. Clearly Homes/Real Estate have value, so do internet companies, and so do tulips. A bubble is when the price of something is way higher than the actual value and eventually the market corrects itself with a dramatic drop in price.

I don't believe bitcoins are worth more than 1 grand let alone 7.. I also believe most people buying are only in it to make a quick buck. This happens in a lot of bubbles. This has also artificially raised prices dramatically while more and more people hop on the bandwagon. Once all of the 'get rich quick' buyers have bought and want to cash out there will be nobody to sell too. This will cause a dramatic crash in price as everyone panics to sell.

If I were you I'd take advantage of this bubble and sell high while people are still buying. Sell all of your bitcoins now because this is too good to be true in my opinion.

But I could be wrong.

Crypto will go through bubbles and crashes again and again, you'll be right temporarily, and then for the next run there will be the next group of critics, until eventually Bitcoin is over $1,000,000 and its mostly owned by the government who uses it to back their USD infinite supply shitcoin that they made you trade in your Bitcoin for after making it illegal to own, assuming China doesn't buy it all up first. "Gold confiscation" ring a bell?

Zoom into the price history of Bitcoin and you'll see a lot of this:

At the end of the day, the only chart that matters is this:

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Looks like BTC @ $10,000 might just be a few days away.

Bitcoin is a bubble. Wait when it will blow up.

Good logic

And yet you've provided a ZERO evidence to support your conclusion. Is that logic as well?

Bitcoin is a bubble.

Perhaps. And possible.

Yet, if I buy a new Lexus with bitcoin and the it's sitting in my garage without a lien, does a BITCOIN bubble bursting make my Lexus invisible?

Or does someone come by and say "Excuse me sir, we have to confiscate your Lexus because you used BTC to buy it." ?

 

[James Fake]

November 28, 2017 Personal Diary Thoughts:

Very memorable day in the crypto world. Hitting $10,000 has a much bigger psychological impact than we realize. Hitting $10k means that throwing out predictions in five figures aren't a joke anymore. $10,000 means this is the final year for any nay-sayers to get on board; or the gap will be so out of reach soon hence why you see major financial institutes making moves now (not just "moves" but they have it #1 priority to get up & going, you never see these kind of ultra-conservative people rush so dang hard on launching stuff - that should tell you something!). They are some of the smartest people on the planet when it comes to money & following it.

This $10,000 is the first "serious" signal that the growing gap is spreading apart fast.. which forces those who are paralyzed by the fear of not understanding Crypto - to finally take time & open mind to understanding and conquering the fear... or continue to watch Facebook peers & less-skilled less-fastlane-mental co-workers glee about as a spectator.

$10,000 also means the nay-sayers get louder... but more people stop listening to them over the years because the mid/late majority develop an audible blind similar to ignoring the guy on the street with a loud-speaker screaming Jesus Is Coming To End The World tomorrow.

It's not my job to "teach" you or "convince" you to believe in crypto. My job is to be an advocate for technology that can help make the world a better place. My job is to share & fuel mental energy into this space & others like me!

$10,000 means crypto as a currency is here to stay. No matter what form or name...

$10,000 also means I fed my mom, my daughter and her mom with several $22/lb crab legs at Hot & Juicy.. and it didn't even put a dent into the profit I made off trading swings just today. (caution: day-trading crypto is not recommended & only use 30% of total portfolio to do it!)

Long-live crypto technology & crypto used as currency..

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

However, when most critics are big banks and corporations, you know it must be doing something right – it is controlled and regulated by the community instead of governments.

Yes, this is responsibly for moving my meter from skeptic to genuine curiosity. Yet even I'd admit, I'm a late-adopter and my late-adoption is a sign that we're at a bubble level. But then part of me understands the difference in this than say, an overinflated stock or a house. So here I sit smack dab in the middle, open to any outcome -- crash down or explosion up.

 

[James Fake]

December 4, 2017:
I pulled my profits out of LTC and such & back in fiat. I believe Bitcoin is heading into another consolidation phase around ~$11.4k.. slightly upward. You may catch it lows at $11.2k or $11.3k.. These have been breaking out faster and faster as the price has gotten higher & market demand has gotten bigger. Upward or downward, we do not know yet.

But my cryptical analysis says upward. I think it's all upward from here until CME comes on board. Without getting too deep; I believe the majority of crypto traders are setting up to give these little stock traders a nice big welcome to the wild wild West from their safe little playground aka a big correction aka cashing out profits when big arrogant money comes in aka those poor guys are going to lose a shit ton of money.

Just my opinion... because that's exactly what I plan to do. I wouldn't be surprised at steady $12k range, peaking at touching some $13k before they come on board. Around December 17th is when I predict the profits will start to be taken out; the smart ones will start pulling around the 15th.

 

[Jake]

• $0000 - $1000: 1789 days
• $1000- $2000: 1271 days
• $2000- $3000: 23 days
• $3000- $4000: 62 days
• $4000- $5000: 61 days
• $5000- $6000: 8 days
• $6000- $7000: 13 days
• $7000- $8000: 14 days
• $8000- $9000: 9 days
• $9000-$10000: 2 days
• $10000-$11000: 1 day
• $11000-$12000: 6 days
• $12,000-$13,000: 17 hours
• $13,000-$14,000: 4 hours

Bitcoin Explodes Above $14,000 - Korean PM Fears "Serious Pathological Phenomena"

 

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[Lex DeVille]

Solid! Chipping a few out to some early Gen2 coins like Iota and EOS every now & then for holding long (at least a year without touching it) wouldn't be a bad idea

This is what I've been doing. Just taking the gains from Bitcoin, Eth, Ltc and collecting alt coins on the side. At this point I'm not playing with my own money anymore. At least not beyond the initial investment. Fun money, and it's definitely fun.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Hey guys.... you know what is great about a Bubble? That you can get out....(no one is pointing a gun to your head)

You know what else is great about a Bubble? You can get out with a crap load of money...

So.. let's take Person A and Person B. Person A and Person B both agree Bitcoin maybe a bubble.

Person A says "I know it's a bubble, but it's a money machine and I will milk it until it begins to topple & I'll get out with all my profits. Maybe I get caught on just a tad bit of the down, but overall, I come out with 80%+ of my profits."

Person B says "This is a bubble. This is a bubble. This is a bubble." grins with joy & takes no action because it could come crashing down annnnnyyyy minute now.

4 Years Later...

Person A is now a multi-millionaire.

Person B is not a multi-millionare but can sure be super prideful about being soooo right that it was a bubble all along!

Person A is happy, very happy. His family is happy. His parents are proud. He has freedom.

Person B is well.... at work right now, he'll call you back when his shift is over.

Moral: It doesn't matter if it's a bubble or not. It's what you do and move knowing it could be a bubble.

p.s. Iota broke out downward out the consolidation triangle.. likely heading to 50% retracement of previous movement, and that low would be $3.09 give or take. So anytime between now and $3.09 in this downward movement, it should break out. =)

That really hits the nail on the hit, bubble and die, bubble and rebound, bubble and whatever...

You can manage your way through a bubble if you're prudent.

You just don't want to be the last man in... aka, the Greater Fool Theory.

Greater fool theory - Wikipedia

 

[Coalission]

You just don't want to be the last man in... aka, the Greater Fool Theory.

Greater fool theory - Wikipedia

True, although since cryptocurrency is a technological innovation related to money, it's possible that it's the first one of these adoption S-curves in human history that people can actually invest into directly:

Would've been nice to own any of those charts early, although telephone, air travel and cars had some nasty dips along the way! Maybe Bitcoin itself will eventually give way to another, but I wouldn't bet against cryptocurrency in general, or bet that there will eventually be a "last one in".

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Ya'll just remember this...
It's just money.

For me, it doesn't even feel like that. Just a number on a screen that magically appeared, and just as easily, can magically disappear. Like with my option profits, it doesn't compute as profit until I convert the "screen gains" until actual dollars sitting on a desk.

 

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[amp0193]

I panicked and sold 77% of my holdings. I'm too emotional for this $hit...

Even if the rest drops to 0, I still made a 200% profit in cryptos. Better than any other trading I have ever done.

Thanks for the cheap BTC.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

"Everyone is a genius in a bull market..."

Yup, my guess is there will be a "purge" somewhere down the road.

In the dot-com boom, everyone was a day trader and making millions. This strikes me as the same because you don't need much skill to make money. Everyone is making money by just being "in the market" much like back in 1999.

Then the purge came.

Some of those guys are still trading, but 99% of them aren't.

That's a purge.

And if you're still making money AFTER the purge, you're something special.

 

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[Coalission]

Most people have this backwards.

 

[biophase]

This thread is interesting... people pump it up and when cryptos go down it becomes silent. I guess a good signal on when to buy is to look up the numbers of days that have gone by on this thread without a post.

I have no idea what I'm doing with crypto, but buying and holding bitcoin at $3k sounded good last year as does buying more at $5k sounds pretty good to me now. Do it for the long term guys, not to trade!

 

[csalvato]

Guys just curious where you see bitcoin in 5-10 years?

- As a stable currency that doesn't go up and down as much as now?
- As more of a way to store wealth but with too much daily fluctuation to be used for everyday purchases?

I get it is in the boom stages (obviously) but are you guys with the experience expecting an eventual levelling out?

To me it just seems difficult to see which way it goes in the long run...
- To be an everyday currency it needs to be stable (no one wants to spend something that is worth 10% more a week later)
- To be stable it needs to be way less "hype" than it is now (from the perspective of the average new user)
- Nearly everyone I know in bitcoin is in it for the profit, not to use as actual currency (back to point #1)

I would love to know your thoughts on what exactly it is when the dust all settles.

(Not trolling at all, just don't see the eventual balance between investment/stable currency in the long term).

I can't really attach times to anything, but there are very natural and expected steps that BTC should go through (or any other crypto that "wins", which I think will be BTC because it's farther along in this process).

Here's one frame: just like any innovation, BTC must go through these steps:

1. You're a joke
2. You're a threat
3. You're obvious

Up until 2017, BTC was solidly in the "joke" phase. In 2017, it had a blip of being a "threat" but the massive mainstream run up and bubble bursting moved it solidly back into the "joke" category again. Thus, a 3 year bear market.

Starting this year, because of the massive amount of inflation, folks like me started to double down on BTC, and more institutions started dumping their money in, too, as they evaluated where to place their inflation hedges.

2020 marked the year that Bitcoin moved solidly into the "threat" category, and the response to the threat in governments worldwide are just beginning - starting with the legislation proposed on Dec 18 with the goal of heavily hindering BTC transfers from exchange to cold storage wallet.

Now that it's a threat, I believe the next 5 years will be rough for bitcoin in terms of adoption and regulation. Once this bull run really takes off, the us gov't will unleash the full force of its power to regulate BTC. I believe a total all out ban on BTC (and other crypto assets) has an extremely high likelihood.

I accept this reality. I believe that it will cause the price to surge short term, and is a necessary part of getting out of "threat" phase and into the "obvious" phase.

How long the US gov't wages war on BTC is a total wild card. I just know the war is coming, and it will make a lot of people very rich, because the US Gov't (and other worldwide gov'ts) will ultimately lose that fight, since there's no set of regulations that can reasonably control bitcoin, and bitcoin is all but impossible to seize if handle properly (which it will be for most people who endure the war).

During this war time, prices will go up because supply will be low, and massive international (and domestic) institutions will continue buying up BTC as a store of value and inflation hedge. This is already happening, and I expect it to continue.

Once we get out of those woods, BTC and crypto will be obvious. I believe, at this point, BTC will have a market cap of at least 9T ($525k/coin using today's USD/GLD rates), and can likely be much higher than that (1-10M/coin is not off the table, IMO).

Generally speaking, assets at these market caps are inherently less volatile, so using it as a day to day currency for larger transfers (like mortgage payments or payroll) is highly likely. Using it for smaller transfers (like milk and eggs) is less likely, but with continued innovation over a decade, very possible.

The end game for BTC is to be, at the least, a stable currency for storing massive amounts of value (10M+). As the Taproot protocol and lightning network get introduced to the mainstream (both run on BTC natively), we will see a hefty chunk of the finance industry running not just on blockchain, but all on BTC.

I believe if you ask any BTC bull their opinion on the future of Bitcoin, you'd get a different story with the same major themes.

 

[csalvato]

otherwise we're going to be in a world of pain.

Where have you been for the last 13 months?

No matter what happens, we are in for a world of pain.

buckle up

 

[nitrousflame]

The complexity argument is another one of those arguments that is easy to pick up and run with, but implicit within the argument is the assumption that complexity won't change over time.

Email was once too complicated to use for anyone other than engineers and complete nerds. Even in the late 90's, many email clients were still terminal based. Anyone remember PINE? It was getting long in the tooth when I was in college, but I very much remember using it:

Imagine thinking then that email was doomed to fail because the user interface left a lot to be desired! The impressive thing about email is that much of its underlying plumbing has remained unchanged since then, yet now even my technophobic mother can send emails. I will leave you to come to your own conclusion about the future complexity of using cryptocurrencies.

 

[AceVentures]

@AceVentures where did/do you go to learn DeFi ?

Might not like the answer if you were looking for a book or a course, but I get most of my info from Twitter and Medium. I hear it straight from the horse's mouth in real-time.

I don't think there is a right or wrong place to start - just start with anything and keep going down the rabbit-hole. All you need is to ask a question, and find answers, and keep doing this. You need to have patience with yourself, and by that I mean you should be open to look-up ANYTHING you don't understand, and take the time to understand it.

If you're impatient, you will slow down your learning process. Just keep learning and don't stop.

 

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[Frinys]

Security Inheriting Consensus Protocols​

One of the things I figured when I wrote my master's thesis (about blockchain technology) some years ago, is that it is impossible to secure all decentralized blockchains with Proof of Work or Proof of Stake.

• Proof of Stake requires a significant market cap before the consensus mechanism provides security.
• Proof of Work requires significant hash power before the consensus mechanism provides security.

This is feasible for the top cryptos, but it is impossible for lower-cap cryptocurrencies. The less used a blockchain is, the easier it is to attack. New blockchain solutions have a very hard time securing their blockchain, and 51% attacks are increasing both in frequency and strength.

There are two ways to solve this. Either by (1) creating the solution as smart contracts on top of an established cryptocurrency, like Ethereum. Or by (2) inheriting the security of an established cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin. Most people know about 1, but not about 2.

Inheriting the security of another blockchain as simple as sending transactions to the security providing blockchain (eg. Bitcoin) with metadata. By doing so, the security inheriting protocol (e.g Stacks) can prove that the transaction exists on the security providing (Bitcoin) blockchain.

It is a very clever approach. To do a 51% attack on a security inheriting blockchain, the attacker must also do a 51% attack on the security providing blockchain. And as we know, it's almost impossible to 51% attack Bitcoin.

Currently, there are only a few types of protocols that inherit Bitcoins security. Two of them are Stack's Proof of Transaction (PoX) and VeriBlock's Proof of Proof (PoP). I think both of these consensus protocols will be very successful in the future.

 

[Timmy C]

Coins secured in cold storage.

Government:
Crypto is now illegal, and people will be prosecuted, hand over your crypto assets now!

You:
I lost my wallet in a boating accident, I donno who has it. Me so poor I can't eat food!

 

[Frinys]

Coins secured in cold storage.

Government:
Crypto is now illegal, and people will be prosecuted, hand over your crypto assets now!

You:
I lost my wallet in a boating accident, I donno who has it. Me so poor I can't eat food!

 

[Ocean Man]

Planning on developing a pretty interesting and simple application not related to finance. I'll update you guys after we dev it. Pretty fun getting to know the ETH ecosystem.

 

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[AceVentures]

While we're worrying about price action, big money is getting strategic and grabbing opportunities.

Anyone on this forum that aspires for an Unscripted life should be paying attention to DeFi.

In a world whose legacy gatekeepers are looking for a Great Reset, crypto economies provide the ultimate cover. The incentives are aligned, and the flow of money is revealing clear patterns.

But idk man, maybe the 2 trilly in crypto rn is just all a scam, and it should instead be buying Amazon/Netflix stocks. Or no real estate! That's more solid. The housing market never goes down. Or wait maybe gold! Yess shiny metal everybody is going to want my certificates for shiny gold in the future. These Gen z and millennials who are shaping the future sure value all this shiny gold metal.

 

[AceVentures]

What makes you so sure that $40K is more correct than $5K or $2K? Your arguments are just as easily applied the other way.

I didn't actually lay out a price point - it was Volodya that brought up both the 40k target as well as his own 5k ceiling.

And yes I said what I said to Volodya because he had DM'd me asking me whether he should buy ETH and if it's a good investment. So I know he wants to participate, so I deduced that his 5k ceiling is not based on any fundamental reason other than his desire to get in at a discount.

Sure you could try to apply the argument the other way. But I've laid out my models for why ETH is undervalued even at these prices. It's all in this thread. I've gone over the issuance mechanisms, gone over DeFi at length, gone over ETH's price as a function of revenue, I've gone over all the macroeconomic factors that point to ETH, and I've tried at every instance to have an intelligent discussion around ETH. I've even laid out possible ranges for prices based on revenue as well as demand.

Nobody has challenged any of the things that I've laid out about ETH. You're free to disagree with my assessment and argue why 5k or 2k is more reasonable than a higher number, I'm all ears.

If I didn't know what I know today, I would have also assumed more conservative estimates because my human brain simply can't imagine how exponential curves manifest in practice.

"I suspect you only imagine that because you lack perspective. ETH to 40k is more reasonable for your mind to wrap around because you're likely betting for a meltup since you've gone all in, not because there's any fundamental reason or market dynamics to suggest it."

But there are fundamental reasons and market dynamic to suggest a melt-up. I've laid them out in this thread. I'm not hoping for a meltup because I've gone all in - I've gone all in because there's no other asset that I'd rather own.

See, I just flipped your argument. This is just jibberish that's unusable for any price predictions. It's just empty arguments that can be applied either way.

Empty arguments? I've laid out solid arguments as to why ETH could melt faces. What have you said to refute any of it? What logic or reason have you deployed to suggest ETH won't melt faces?

Or are you just getting technical with the semantics of what I said and how I said it?

 

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[Fox]

A classic...



Hope everyone hung in there today!