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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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farmer79

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So I thought I'd put my trading hat on and make a few comments. I didn't mean to come in and say Bitcoin is going to 0 because it is a bubble. Also my sense from reading this thread is it younger guys who may be trading seriously for the first time in their lives. I am a bit of a grizzled vet and maybe too old and set in my ways to have embraced this technology anyways. However I was a full time self financed stock and commodity trader for nearly 12 years and for approx 5 years made a living doing it. Not a great living, probably not enough for a wife and kids,but still actually paid the bills. I don't say that to brag I was no George Soros but trust me it is harder than you think. I don't think there are too many trading experiences that I have not experienced. Everything from drug like highs to actually needing to lunge at the garbage so I could throw up. (Lock limit move in live hogs don't ask anymore please)

Full disclaimer I truly believe Bitcoin is going to 0 someday, and if not I believe the advantages, especially in US will be legislated away eventually. But good trading is good trading.

A few points to BitCoin traders,
1. You have caught a 1-3 market of a lifetime. ENJOY IT!! If you are new to trading you have no idea how rare this is. Savor it. Trading is usually extremely hard, low margin, thankless etc, The last market like this was probably Internet bubble 1999-2000. Be addicted to it! Eat, sleep, breathe Bitcoin. Know everything. Sleep with your phone so you can check prices at night. I am not joking I am really not. In the fall of 2008 I made a small fortune (to me anyways) when markets were collapsing, my regret is I didn't enjoy it more. It was my high water mark as a trader and I didn't enjoy it like I should have.

2. Why is it important to savor it? Because it will not last, simple as that. I don't mean it will go to 0. I mean volatility will dry up. Although I here a lot that it "is totally new", or "nothing like it in history.". It is still a tradable instrument, and one that appears free of manipulation. So it will trade like every other instrument. Which means eventually the market will figure out how to price it and the volatility will disappear and it will move into a range. At this point the wild trading swings and just being able to hold for new highs will be gone.

3. If you are absolutely confident in your beliefs and analysis push the envelope and your risk factor. Although I suspect it is very late to suggest this. The point is when markets like this come along they can be life changing, don't miss that. This is my biggest regret in 2008 when markets were starting to collapse. I had quite literally a perfect read on the markets, I understood what was happening and I had strategies that worked perfect in that environment. Without a word of lie I could have made 7 figures in 90 days. But I made less than a tenth of that because I was afraid to push the envelope. Thinking I should still be trading cautiously. What I missed in 2008 wasn't market analysis, it was how special 2008 was. Same thing with internet bubble.

4. Remember the true measure of a successful trader is not %return, not what one year of your income tax return says, not how many great calls you make, not how high your account equity got, the true measure of a trader is, "how much money did you take out of the market?" I can't stress that enough. By out I mean out of your trading account into a bank account where you can buy stuff with it. I don't mean you need to spend it, but it needs to be removed from trading account. Pay living expenses, buy a car, or just save it. But actually remove it from harms way in your trading account.

5. Building on point 4. DO NOT SPEND UNREALIZED GAINS EVER! Especially for taxes. And they are due on Dec 31st not April 15th. Sorry for the caps but it is that important. You have no idea how many traders got badly burned during internet bubble when they had a huge tax bill in 1999 and all the money was gone by March 2000 but they hadn't paid taxes yet. And unrealized includes trades closed but money still in trading account. I dont mean to pick on James as his contributions here are epic and more importantly he has been gifted an insider subscription which is the highest fast lane honour of all. Also I don't like giving unsolicited advice especially to people I don't know. He may have more trading experience than me in which case I look silly. So I mean it as a painful lesson I learned trading junior exploration stocks in 2005-2006. James made the comment that he went out with family for fresh expensive crab with a tiny portion of trading profits a day ago. You should absolutely do things like this, you need to celebrate successes. It is important and fun. But make sure you actually take the money out, even only a few hundred dollars. Make this a rule you never break. Trust me not only will you enjoy it more but if you do get caught in downdraft it won't hurt nearly as much. Especially as gains get bigger. Next thing you know you'll pick up 10-15K on a Friday trading and decide to fly to SanDiego for a football game, however you'll think"I'll take money out next month or once account is over 250k etc." You get hit with a downdraft and suddenly you have the bill for a trip that may represent regret rather than celebration. Everyone says how easy to convert or send Bitcoin is. If you are going to spend gains take them out of account and really enjoy.

6. The Bad will happen. I know it feels like Bitcoin is revolutionary. It feels like there had never been anything that even compares to it, so old rules, especially valuation rules don't apply. There may be a kernel of truth to this in the early days when it is taking off to the moon. But ultimately it is currency, a freely traded currency without central bank influence obviously, but still a currency. Its value will eventually be set solely by that metric. Because it is a unique product and because it being used primarily as a tool to speculate in it is easy to forget that. We could soar to 12,500 tomorrow on George Soros saying Bitcoin is the future. Remember how internet analysts could move stocks back in 1999-2000? But eventually it is going to move on its utility as a currency.

7. Markets at all time highs trade differently. They are special. They can run up much farther than you think. Up until the drop today yesterday there was not a single person who was down money from any purchase point. This gives unbelievable rocket fuel because all the "sell when I get back to even people" simply do not exist. Once we retrace more for a significant period of time rather than price a market accumulates a lot of these. And this make new highs much tougher.

8. If things work perfectly there is still much that can go wrong. As I have thought about Bitcoin the last few days I thought maybe a good best case comparison is Amazon. The internet was completely disruptive technology. I don't think even the most bullish Bitcoin person could think Bitcoin is more revolutionary and transformative than the internet. We'll call Amazon the cream of the original internet crop. It has risen from virtually nothing to nearly 1200 USD per share. However between March of 2000 and Oct 2001, Amazon dropped from over $75 to 5.5. It lost over 90% of it's value. And it was the perfect internet company. If you don't like stock comparisons go to currencies. Although not as dire as stocks 30-50 percent moves are certainly possible. So build that into your risk profile. A 50-90% move is not only possible it is probable. And it doesn't mean anything is wrong or bad, it is just moving like every other tradable instrument in the universe.

I wish all of you really good trading . If it is just the first of a huge leg up to 25000, I really do hope you all catch it. If your understanding of this unfamiliar technology allows you to understand an intrinsic value of 100,000 I really hope you have the fortitude and patience to ride it out. But please take some money all the way out along the way.
 

James Fake

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Hmm, if you spend time daytrading, is there any time for the fastlane business left?

This. How you organize yourself on those two?

Sure thing.. basically, my fastlane path is baked right into the act of day-trading. So day-trading (apart from just looking for signals and analyzing stuff) involves quite a bit social activity; whether that's sharing ideas, reading/consuming content, or real-time chatting with others. By me simply trading throughout the day; I also grow my business at the same time.

Granted, eventually I will need to spend some time on outside stuff on marketing, right now; to gain traction - I can grow users by just being in it.

I don't plan on publicly explaining or starting a thread on this fastlane, simply because probably about 95% here are my target market - and I don't want to feel like every time I talk about crypto here, it feels like an under-cover ad. But I do hope that more others from this forum jump into & start some type of support product or service in this crypto space.. it's ALOT of money & ALOT of people willing to spend ALOT of money. It's still developing, so you may not be able to think of any viable ideas now, but trust, there will be an entire industry of avenues to choose from as it matures!

Out of curiosity, and this is 100% a "dumb trader" question, is day trading crypto to see these kinds of gains simply a result of taking advantage of fast moving volatility?

So I'll start off with what I always tell most people: Hold lol. In order for me to make money; someone has to lose it. The only way someone loses in this bull market is when they sell (usually panic sell) or attempt to sell high, buy at dips, to buy more coins. One can only do that for so long before taking a good amount of losses because no one can time this market.

With that said; you are speaking of swing trading.. I have done that before with some success but it's way too time & energy intensive with minimal profits. What I do is spot which coins are primed for a big run & go sit there before it happens. We are talking about runs of 10-15% minimum (which is an every day thing in crypto).. a few times per month; there are coins that go on 50% days back to back.

I catch 1 or 2 real good runs like Litecoin's most recent, etc. per month and about 2-3 of those smaller 10% runs per week and you can see where my bankroll is tripled pretty quick. I will take losses sometimes, but at this point; I usually go about 4 or 5 wins before I take a loss..

A specific example: This week and upcoming weekend; I suspect Bitcoin to make a big break towards the $20k's on Friday evening. Most would think I'm crazy and there is chatter that Bitcoin is on a bear'ish slope, but through experience I think it won't. Iota is sitting in a HUGE pennant pattern and consolidating waiting to bust out. LTC likes to piggy-back off any big BTC runs. So.. if we put that together, my bets are:

1. Sit in IOTA until it breaks. (hoping it breaks up which is more probably than not). Profit & move to..
2. Bitcoin by Friday til Monday. Profit and move to.. (this is conditional, I may not move on, it just depends)..
3. Litecoin to catch any mimmicking run that happens 12hrs to a day later..
4. Eth (sometimes) will mimmick a similar run.. (this is hit or miss)
 

MJ DeMarco

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My take is only put in what you can afford to lose and we all want to win

Yup, it's money you take to Vegas. If it isn't, one needs to have their head examined.

I realized that this crypto craze has been distracting me from my primary entrepreneurial pursuits

Crypto should be in the f*ck you/speculative pot and considered an investment unless you're on the entrepreneurial side and messing with the technology and an ICO.

Isn't crypto just an "event" and not a "process"?

People are confusing this as a business. It's a speculative investment and belongs in the F*CK YOU pot where speculative adventures are drawn.

Dumb money is definitely here.

Yup, I walked through that door a few weeks ago. Problem is, most people won't admit their the dumb money. I will. {Here's me raising my hand!} :p
 

Coalission

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My 100k "f*ck you pot" grew into a serious pot in a few months...thank you altcoins :cool:

 

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Horse racing is my real game. It's definitely gambling, but gambling with an edge. What happens in horse racing is you get to analyze charts and bet against dumb money. You are literally better off when dumb money flows into the race, because anytime you can gain a statistical Edge against the money flow you can win. Now horse racing is still dependent on variables that are outside of your control, but hopefully you are wagering with money that you can afford to lose. You do your homework, you take a Plunge, and you hope that the external factors break in your favor. However, the most money to be gained is the surge that happens when the uneducated money comes in. It's nothing to be afraid of... It's the reason you are there. Gaining an edge against the odds when dumb money Flows In is how you win at gambling. You don't have to have everything figured out. You just have to be one step ahead of the public at Large. One edge. One reason. One gamble that you can back with cash. And a little bit of luck on your timing.
 

James Fake

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These past weeks.. Outside of Feedbackz; I have been up to my neck in crypto. I move so fast now & I will have to self-profess that I have become a fairly good crypto trader. My plan is to exit out of this with no less than $10M.. hopefully $100M if my cards play out super-right.. all within 2 years.

At my current rate; I'm gaining 100% of my day-trade amount every week or so; this is profit pulled out. So every month I am nearly 3x to 4x my initial investment. Most of my profit is going back into Gen2 coins for long-holds. I'm looking to get 100x out of my long holds by mid 2019.

Outside of just trading & positioning coins; I also have a fastlane I'm almost done completing. If all goes well; this will bring in $2-3M to compliment my coin exit strategy.

Bubble or not; I am taking FULL ADVANTAGE & once I reach my projected number within a projected time frame; I'm out & gone. Once the smoke clears; then I'll come back & find the Apples, Facebooks, and Amazons of today...
 

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Newbie Crypto Advice From A Crypto Newb

1. If you can't research which platforms to buy/sell on or to get a wallet on = you shouldn't be in this game because you're gonna lose.
2. If you don't got money to play with, you don't get to play.
3. If you play with money you don't got, you're gonna lose.
4. This is a game of some risk.
5. If you're not willing to take risks, you won't win big (true for business also).
6. Who cares if it's a bubble. Markets go up and down and eventually back up.
7. If you have to ask which coin you should invest in, you shouldn't invest because you're gonna lose.
8. Just because you can't see the opportunity doesn't mean it isn't there.
9. Just because you believe something (i.e. a bubble) will happen, doesn't mean it will.
10. Just because a bubble pops doesn't mean it's the end of the world.
11. Your beliefs are invalid and irrelevant until validated and relevanted. <--- not sure that's a word.
12. If you wait too long, you'll miss out.
13. Just because the "masses" are jumping on board doesn't mean you can't still win.
14. Playing with house money instead of your own is a good idea.
15. The only thing that matters is the results you get. Try to come away with good results.
 

MJ DeMarco

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I did set up a Coinbase account, and dropped some money into ETH and LTC.

When the two old farts of the forum have bought into it, that means we're all in trouble. :blush:
 

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I tried to open a Coinbase account in June and could not get verified. Tried again in July, didn't work. It was never a huge priority. Then in October I finally got verified, deposited money and bought some stuff. Treating it all as education at the time. No sense of urgency. But ended up paying over 2-3x more for everything for just being lazy.

So even if you are on the sideline, I'd say set up that account, because the waiting times could be huge and cost you alot.

As with MJ, this is all a learning experience for me. I am treating it as such. I actually sent $15 to a friend in BTC the other day. It was pretty cool to do it using QR codes. Transaction fee was $15 lol.

I also sold some ETH and transferred it back into my bank account just to see the process and time frame.

I also transferred some BTC from coinbase to bittrex to see how that worked and how long it took.

I feel it is important to understand all these processes so when the time comes you aren't struggling to figure out how to do things.
 

Coalission

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Awesome. Congrats on your ROI :)

What are your lessons learned from this success? How much time did you put in on a daily basis to stay ahead of the markets and make your predictions?

Thanks, I think the most important lessons to learn during a market like this are about yourself, not about what coin to buy or when to buy. Like @JScott said, it doesn't take a genius to pick winners in this market, and my 10x in a few months is not really that impressive when you look at what the market as a whole has done during that time.

One important thing I've learned is you have to know what you're buying, and why you're buying it. If you're only buying because it's going up fast, fine, you may make some money that way, but it may also turn on you in the blink of an eye and you'll lose money when you sell, or even pat yourself on the back for an 8% profit, only for you to check on it a few weeks or months later and realized you would've 50x-ed your money if you had just held it. But you didn't. And why would you? You had no clue why you bought in the first place, so you didn't know what the near-term and long-term catalysts were for the coin to move in the long run.

I obsessively research every coin I buy, so I can only own 3 or 4 at most at a time. I want to be on top of every little thing that happens with them, and why it's happening. Others take a more "fund-like" approach, and buy like 50 coins, but I'm just one guy. I've tried that approach before, and what ends up happening is I end up selling most of them and keeping the few that I really like, so it just makes more sense for me to limit the amount of coins I buy to begin with but with more conviction. That way, I can buy during the inevitable dips vs. not knowing what's going on and just panic selling. Every extra investment takes up "mental space" I just don't want, even if I try not to think of them it's just there.

This is awesome.

I remember you posted a while back that you made roughly $300k profit on a $100k alt coin trade.

Is this the same trade ?

Also what alt coin did you invest in ?

Thanks.

No I'm no longer in that one, it was MANA.
 

Coalission

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Just closed out the best swing trade of my life, an altcoin I had been holding for a few months popped, avg. ~$125k total cost basis, closed out for $410,931, almost 300k profit. Expecting a pullback in Bitcoin soon so won't keep it BTC for long.
 

MJ DeMarco

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On top of that, Wall Street is not at the ground floor of this bubble.

True. In all past bubbles, Wall Street already made their fortunes and the public was left holding the bag.

Maybe this will be the reverse, the public will make the fortune and when/if the bubble bursts, Wall Street will be holding the bag!
 

James Fake

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Hey Fastlaners,
As Bitcoin is slowly becoming the real deal. I wanted to give Bitcoin it's own thread containing just long-term & short-term predictions & any big crypto news to help any others who's trading, hodling, etc. a place to throw in your predictions & any actions you plan on taking.

I see the current stage of Bitcoin & crypto as the new Napster & Limewire. Industry bigs (middle-men) will do all they can to fight it & shut it down, but they will soon find out - You can't beat the under-lying ideals & world-changing tech. It will carry on & win out in other forms because the market has experienced the benefits and the market always wins (it will even beat out government regulations).

Bitcoin is in the experienced the benefits stage. As more and more adopt to use Bitcoin as a form of payment (even if the sellers offering to take Btc as payment are valuing on speculative price/trading); the fact remains: They are still using Bitcoin as currency. It is being used as the real deal of exchange between goods & money.

Predictions Nov 8, 2017:
A fork titled B2X was recently cancelled (or "suspended") by their own backers & creators. This is going to give Btc a big bull-run for the next week or so to ~$9,000.

Once it hits this; if the bull-run slows down; a market correction drop of ~20-30% will hit around early or mid December. This will be a short-lived correction though as many are waiting on the sideline (who haven't jumped in the game) for this drop to happen and ready to buy into Bitcoin.

With or without this market correction happening; I strongly believe Btc will at least flirt with $10k before the year is over with.

My actions: I am going to Hodl until I see about a ~15% drop then going to sell half of my coins to later re-buy in once it begins climbing back from the drop. Then Hodl, Hodl, Hodl.
 

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A 70 year old woman I know, who can barely work her email, asked me yesterday if I knew anything about "this bitcoin thingy"

She's fairly wealthy and wants to buy some now.

Dumb money is definitely here.
 

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What are your lessons learned from this success? How much time did you put in on a daily basis to stay ahead of the markets and make your predictions?

Only speaking for myself (and most certainly not referring to Coalission in this post -- I think he clearly knows this industry well), I see two types of "investing" in crypto these days...

1. Investing in strong companies, with good products/roadmaps, well-pedigreed owners/engineers/investors that have a good chance of doing well once the industry matures. These are coins that likely won't have meteoric rises (though they might), and are the closest you'll get to "value" investments in this space. Finding and completing due diligence on these companies takes a lot of time and effort, but should hopefully pay off long-term.

2. Investing in "hot" coins purely on speculation. You can make a ton of money doing this as long as the market is going crazy (like it has been), but that won't always be the case. I've made 35x my money on a coin in a week and 9x my money on a coin literally overnight. That's gambling, and while I can pretend I'm a genius crypto investor all I want for making those investments, the truth is, I pretty much got lucky.

With #1, you can put a LOT of time into research, talking to other investors, etc. With #2, you can certainly do some research, but it's more just being in the right place at the right time.

What I've noticed is that 99% (made up number) of crypto "investors" are simply in the #2 category -- yet they believe they are in the #1 category.

As someone said to me recently, "Everyone is a genius in a bull market..."
 

MJ DeMarco

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Its gone mainstream, the end is near.

While I hold both ETH and BTC, I unfortunately have to agree with you because I look at myself. My knowledge is still at a 3 (out of 10) so I'm definitely in the "dumb money" category. And as I preached in TMF, when dumb money shows up, it's the end of the road.

The other part of me sees the potential in the decentralization aspects, plus added resistance to big banks/corporations/gubbermint. So I'm making my bets at the latter beating the former.
 

Coalission

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30 years ago, The Economist magazine predicted a collapse and a world currency, on the cover you can see what year is on the coin.



The Economist is owned by the Rothschilds...maybe the conspiracy theories are true.

Also the "10" could be like 1s and 0s, which is computer code, which could mean computer generated currency, or cryptocurrency.
 

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Bekit

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So if every company buys a bunch of bitcoin.
Do you think maybe, just MAYBE. All of their employees will get paid in Bitcoin as well in time?
Nah, no way, probably nothing.
I got paid in bitcoin for the first time last month (for freelance copywriting). I'm about to get a second payment in BTC next week. It felt really good.

The client was in another country and mentioned that it was an expensive hassle to wire funds. I said, "I mean, you could pay me in bitcoin if you want."

Their eyes lit up. "Really?"

"Absolutely, here's my address."

So amazing.
 

Tom.V

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So much inefficiency in this market. It's literally abundant at every turn. You have huge differences between different exchanges for the same coins (for example LTC on Poloniex hit low $80's last night, while GDAX only hit $95.01)
In relation to this piece, just put my money where my mouth was. LTC spiked, noticed huge price discrepancies between GDAX and Poloniex and Binance (GDAX was sitting around $170 when POLO was around $140, same for Binance). Bought about $8k worth of LTC at $142-$145, immediately transferred to GDAX, and sold both lots @ $175-$180 ranges. Easy $1,500 profit in 30 minutes with pure arbitrage.
 

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Take everything with a grain of salt, but here's going to be my strategy going forward...

Every so often, I'm going to simply pull out a "percentage of profits" from each coin I have (currently ETH and LTC) and and re-invest into other, non-mainstream coins. Here's why:
  1. If I lose my profits, oh well. When in Vegas...
  2. I'm also okay losing my investment (financially speaking). I'm using money I can 'afford to lose' in this.
  3. If one of the alts hits big, sweet. Unemotional, unequivocal fun money.
I am not as well read within the topic of crypto as I'd like to be; I can't devote the time and resources to doing so at this time. That said, I'm going to keep putting some money in the game to learn, and have some fun, too.

Since my start, I've doubled my money. And I know it can go away just as fast.

But, in the eyes of a Fastlaner, there is an especially interesting EV here, which heavily plays against the idea this is all just a lottery.​

I'm okay with calculated gambling, over a period of time, so long as it's systematic.

I'm going to attempt to make it so.
 

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  • I realized that this crypto craze has been distracting me from my primary entrepreneurial pursuits
  • Time and mental energy spent on this is spreading me thin
  • I did not meet my objectives for the week and it shows on Trello
  • I am going to establish a buy and hold as a long-term investment...
  • It will be about 2% of my portfolio, dollar cost averaged over time
  • Boom, DONE
 

James Fake

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Hey guys.... you know what is great about a Bubble? That you can get out....(no one is pointing a gun to your head)

You know what else is great about a Bubble? You can get out with a crap load of money...

So.. let's take Person A and Person B. Person A and Person B both agree Bitcoin maybe a bubble.

Person A says "I know it's a bubble, but it's a money machine and I will milk it until it begins to topple & I'll get out with all my profits. Maybe I get caught on just a tad bit of the down, but overall, I come out with 80%+ of my profits."

Person B says "This is a bubble. This is a bubble. This is a bubble." grins with joy & takes no action because it could come crashing down annnnnyyyy minute now.

4 Years Later...

Person A is now a multi-millionaire.

Person B is not a multi-millionare but can sure be super prideful about being soooo right that it was a bubble all along!

Person A is happy, very happy. His family is happy. His parents are proud. He has freedom.

Person B is well.... at work right now, he'll call you back when his shift is over.

Moral: It doesn't matter if it's a bubble or not. It's what you do and move knowing it could be a bubble.

p.s. Iota broke out downward out the consolidation triangle.. likely heading to 50% retracement of previous movement, and that low would be $3.09 give or take. So anytime between now and $3.09 in this downward movement, it should break out. =)
 
Last edited:

Yoda

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Over the last couple weeks, I've day traded quite a lot. My market value is down, but I'm winning, big time.

Here's why:

I stopped focusing on what Binance tells me I have, dollar-wise, and started focusing on what I can control most... coin count.
Hear me out.

When I originally got into this thing, my strategy was buy, hold, peel profits, re-invest. As I learned more about the market and what value different coins provided, I consolidated all my profits into three (VEN, ICX, XRB). My aim was then longer-term focused, and peeling profits at a very strategic pattern.

As things started moving downward, though, the strategy would mean simply holding; and so I did.

But, I had a decision to make... keep my strategy in force (ayyyy), or look at the logic of getting active as the streets turned blood red.

I actually put away the phone and computer for a couple days and reflected on what I wanted to do.

I weighed the pros, cons, and looked at the maximum possible loss versus maximum possible gain. The more I looked at the market, as a whole, I tried to see everything on a larger, longer timeline. That's when I had a thought...

What would "1-year-from-now-me" look back and advise myself?
The answer was, ultimately, accumulate more coins. If I knew, a year from now, every coin I owned of "X" was worth $1,000, what could I do which would allow me to have the most future value?

Simply, get more coins. The price of the coins now (as long as it was under $1,000) meant nothing.

None of us can control the value, but we can control the coin count.

That little shift in my mindset has made all the difference; instead of seeing my account value as a green or red, I'm now looking at my coin count as green or red.
I've been simply making what I'd call "micro-bets" each day. I'm trying to add 1-10 coins per day. That's it. Not trying to double my stack, not trying to make huge gains. It might mean catching a 2% swing over a 15-30 minute period. Small wins.

I'll pop in-and-out of a position, when I feel there is a legitimate trend or spiral, and then be done. My goal has been to accumulate a few coins per day, and it's working.

*Yes, this is day-trading. Yes, this is risky. So is all of crypto.

But, here's why this is different, and why I would ask you to consider your own stack count more than any other factor.
No matter what the market does, you can wake up every day and know your coin count hasn't diminished at all, unless you do something to lose it.

Focus on coin count.​
 

Vigilante

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