Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Antifragile]

Excellent report to read, enjoy:

Crypto Theses for 2022​

Key trends, people, companies, and projects to watch across the crypto landscape, with predictions for 2022

https://messari.io/pdf/messari-report-crypto-theses-for-2022.pdf

 

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[Ocean Man]

Don't get me wrong, I'm very into crypto. But this interview was hilarious, especially the last bit!

Time to find a metaverse I can afford and work hard guys! ‍
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUZvW3f-uzQ

 

[Lex DeVille]

Don't get me wrong, I'm very into crypto. But this interview was hilarious, especially the last bit!

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GUZvW3f-uzQ

haha just finished it a little bit ago They had me rolling

 

[Antifragile]

Mirror

Built on web3 for web3, Mirror’s robust publishing platform pushes the boundaries of writing online—whether it’s the next big white paper or a weekly community update.

mirror.xyz

@MTF @MJ DeMarco

 

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[MTF]

Mirror

Built on web3 for web3, Mirror’s robust publishing platform pushes the boundaries of writing online—whether it’s the next big white paper or a weekly community update.

mirror.xyz

@MTF @MJ DeMarco

I saw this one some time ago. The website is terrible as it tells nothing about what it is. Their guide is useless as well. No idea what it's for. I checked online but it's so vague it looks like a potential scam.

 

[Ocean Man]

I saw this one some time ago. The website is terrible as it tells nothing about what it is. Their guide is useless as well. No idea what it's for. I checked online but it's so vague it looks like a potential scam.

I've seen a few articles and it just seems like Medium. I like the idea but I'm not really sure how to actually gain access to it, I think only a select people are able to write on it. I personally wanted to make one but wasn't sure how.

Here's an example article: Full-Time DAOs — Mirror
And the person's profile: Coopahtroopa

 

[MTF]

I've seen a few articles and it just seems like Medium. I like the idea but I'm not really sure how to actually gain access to it, I think only a select people are able to write on it. I personally wanted to make one but wasn't sure how.

I read they had some "races" where members voted for new writers to join: $WRITE RACE — Mirror

But it seems to be paused now:

$WRITE RACE — Mirror

$WRITE RACE is a weekly showdown between people joining the Mirror DAO.

mirror.xyz

 

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[Ocean Man]

I read they had some "races" where members voted for new writers to join: $WRITE RACE — Mirror

But it seems to be paused now:

$WRITE RACE — Mirror

$WRITE RACE is a weekly showdown between people joining the Mirror DAO.

mirror.xyz

Interesting! Thanks for sharing!

I was looking at the posts and they do have the author's wallet address tied to each post. Once you click on the address it takes you to the author's etherscan, which leads me to believe that the articles created may have a record on the blockchain.

 

[MTF]

Interesting! Thanks for sharing!

I was looking at the posts and they do have the author's wallet address tied to each post. Once you click on the address it takes you to the author's etherscan, which leads me to believe that the articles created may have a record on the blockchain.

You can turn them into NFTs but not sure how this would be valuable. Perhaps similar to an art patron sponsoring a promising artist here you can sponsor this way a promising writer and if they become famous, your NFT will be more valuable.

 

[MTF]

Excellent report to read, enjoy:

Crypto Theses for 2022​

Key trends, people, companies, and projects to watch across the crypto landscape, with predictions for 2022

https://messari.io/pdf/messari-report-crypto-theses-for-2022.pdf

Just finished reading/browsing through it. I skipped pages 51-91 as they were way too dense and/or boring (I don't care about the US policy).

All in all, I've learned some really interesting stuff. It was very dense at times and a newbie won't understand much. Thankfully he provides links to tons of resources (my bookmarks hate me now).

Here's stuff I highlighted that I found particularly interesting:

one of the primary unifying forces behind this movement is the belief that decentralized technologies with embedded financial incentives (a good shorthand for Web3) offer a compelling, often lucrative, alternative to our decaying legacy institutions

we’re going from
an internet built on “rented land” with monopoly overlords, to an infinite frontier of new possibilities. On
the frontier, crypto presents a credible revolution to all monopolies, which is why its inevitability scares the
incumbents.
We have all the key ingredients we need to succeed.
• Talent: Brilliant, passionate, big-visioned young builders are flocking to the open design space of crypto
in record numbers, often on their nights and weekends.
• Capital: We’ve seen mammoth venture capital fund raises, crypto startup fundraises, and staggering
growth in emerging liquid protocols across Web3 use cases.
• Timing: Critical infrastructure was installed during the last bear market that made it easier than ever
(socially and practically) to embrace this techno-political movement.

If history were to repeat itself, what’s that mean in dollar terms? Hitting a MVRV of 3 again this year
would take us to the $100,000-125,000 range. Not bad!
If things went completely bonkers beyond that, the next target for bitcoin would be the gold market
cap. At today’s prices, parity with gold would bring us a $500,000 bitcoin. So there may still be a
10x investment opportunity there, but even that moon case offers a relatively low ceiling compared
to bitcoin’s historical returns.

Could ETH overtake Microsoft, Apple, or Google? That would be
a 3-5x from here. Could it eclipse all five combined? That would be a 15-20x, which feels like a tall order
even if ETH at 5% of FAMGA market cap feels cheap

Ethereum had rallied nearly 10x on the year, which is
nothing to sneeze at, but the real story of 2021 was Ethereum’s
blockspace congestion, high fees, and the subsequent explosion of
its Layer 1 competitors. Avalanche is up 25x year over year, Solana
and Polygon 110x, Fantom 160x. But it’s Terra that has reigned
supreme, with a staggering 170x return

Get used to hearing the term “Web3” because it could eventually replace “crypto” as the go to moniker for
the decentralized tech movement. It plays better to new audiences, it’s less scary sounding to regulators, and
it’s a faster and more accurate meme.

NFTs are cool because they represent verifiably scarce, portable, and programmable pieces of digital
property. An NFT could be a share of stock, a virtual sword in a MMORPG, a profile picture on social media,
a new digital art piece, a plot of land in the metaverse, or your data record on Facebook. The potential
for NFTs is essentially unlimited as blockchains become global transaction ledgers for both natively virtual
property and physical property (or at least, their digital receipts).
The “real world” version of an NFT might be something like the deed to my house (verifiably scarce), if I
could prove ownership to my insurance company by signing a transaction in a wallet that holds the receipt
of my deed (digital representation of property). I could grant access to the house for Airbnb guests with the
NFT (programmable), or I could take out a home equity line of credit and pledge the NFT as collateral on a
peer-to-peer lending platform (portable).

. Almost all of the smart folks in crypto agree that most NFTs will go the
way of most 2017 ICOs...to zero.
But some early projects will succeed at tremendous scale, and the asset class as a whole will explode over
the next decade. NFTs will impact every sector of the economy and kids will own more stuff that “look like
NFTs than physical items.” You must understand the impact NFTs will have by 2040 even if you don’t care
about them today.

Even if you invest in a Beeple original or another top tier project, it’s probably going to be impossible to
keep pace with the growth of the total NFT “market cap.” As such, the winning long-term plays I like in
the NFT space are infrastructure related, which will outperform - by a wide margin - the expected value of
even the bluest chip NFT projects. Investing in infrastructure in a niche like art (e.g. SuperRare), might not
outperform the eventual top 1% of NFTs, but your expected value will be higher, it will save you lots of time,
and you won’t need to be a tastemaker to have success. As NFT infrastructure expands in every feasible
asset category, the infrastructure space becomes especially appealing

To recap the
meta NFT thesis: attention is finite, the internet is vast, we’re tribal creatures driven by mimetic desire, and
we’re building an insane parallel financial system that may have found a bridge to celebrities and mass retail
adoption via crypto-enabled art and collectibles. When you add all of that up, NFTs allow you to “own a
piece of the internet.”
Now let’s substitute “the internet” with “your favorite entertainers” - in music, film, sports, fashion, gaming,
etc. Fan tokens are simply collectibles with member rights. Those rights can be financial (tickets, shared
royalties), or non-financial (social signal as a super fan, experiential access), or a combination of the two.
Think of what might happen with NBA Top Shots for illustration.
Top Shots are collections of virtual playing cards that capture NBA players and iconic moments from the
game. The dumb v1 of Top Shots? They’re collectibles like old baseball cards. But how about v2, v3...v8?
Top Shots collectors might get invited to VIP players’ events in the off-season or to the All-Star Game. Maybe
they’ll earn entries in a lottery for courtside playoff seats for their favorite home team. Or have a say in the
league’s new jersey designs.
Or in music, let’s say you bought one of the first 1,000 NFTs for your favorite indie band’s new album. They go
mainstream, and now you’ve got backstage passes (via your NFT) for their next tour stop in your town. You get
a split of the royalties from a Netflix documentary on their rise. In fact, your NFT gives you voting rights in the
DAO that voted on the royalties deal in the first place! Maybe that NFT gets you an Audius airdrop.
What if Lil Nas X had dropped a token? He went from 900 to 50 million Spotify listeners in two years. If
you were one of the 900, would you have purchased (or been airdropped!) a $NAS token back then for
helping him promote his early singles? $NAS could have tracked early “true believers” and allowed fans to
personally share in his financial success

We can make all of the pie-in-the-sky predictions we want about crypto taking over [insert industry] and being an
unstoppable force. The truth is that our physical survival depends on the decentralization of hardware. The war
against censorship resistance will be fought in the cloud, and how effectively we wrest control of that infrastructure
from today’s dominant monopolies will be the difference between an open internet, and a police state

Helium is one of the strongest performers (+3,000%) within the Web3 sector year-to-date as its global
wireless hotspot network continues to attract huge partners like DISH, who announced that they would begin
to deploy Helium’s new line of 5G hotspots.

Worldcoin launched this fall with some impressive backers and an audacious goal: get a fair launched digital
currency into the hands of 1 billion people by tying their retinal scans to a unique verified identity. They
use zero knowledge cryptography to secure the identities on-chain, and an incentivized network of “Orb
Operators” to onboard new users $10 at a time in return for looking into the metal scanners. The early
results sounded impressive.
Look, I know this sounds bad.
Yes, it involves a metal iris-scanning orb built by the folks working on OpenAI.
Yes, the goal is to airdrop a new world currency and 20% is owned by wealthy seed backers.
Yes, the onboarding model relies on door-to-door techno-mormons getting paid $10 per convert willing to
store their biometrics on these new devices.
Yes, the manufacturer’s name is undisclosed, and that could end poorly.
Yes, the orb does look like the death star on its side, but with a fresh wax, and an eye-scan eligible digital
currency was also the currency of the galactic empire (I think).
But, what if it works?

DAOs are one of the most important constructs in crypto, and they will change every aspect of the
economy, politics, and probably even your social life in the years ahead. If 2020 was all about DeFi, and 2021
was all about NFTs, 2022 will be the year of the DAO

 

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[Timmy C]

I'm in the elongating cycle camp and think it will be a bull for 2022 also.

So balls deep in this haha.

 

[Andy Black]

Just finished reading/browsing through it. I skipped pages 51-91 as they were way too dense and/or boring (I don't care about the US policy).

All in all, I've learned some really interesting stuff. It was very dense at times and a newbie won't understand much. Thankfully he provides links to tons of resources (my bookmarks hate me now).

Here's stuff I highlighted that I found particularly interesting:

Wow. Thanks for your effort summarising this for us @MTF.

One of my key takeaways is that Crypto may start getting called Web3.

Another was that betting on infrastructure might be the best strategy (I read that as selling shovels).

I had to Google DAO:




One of my key takeaways from that Wikipedia article was:

Decentralized autonomous organizations aim to be open platforms where individuals control their identities and their personal data.

 

[MTF]

I had to Google DAO:

If you want to go deeper:

DAO Reading List | Notion

If I missed something great, please tweet @maartjebus or email maartje@thedigitalasset.io me

the-dutchess.notion.site

 

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[Andy Black]

Have you looked at Steemit before @MTF? I’m not saying it’s a great example, but is this an example of a Web3 site where members “own” their accounts and are rewarded for publishing content that other members like?

@MJ DeMarco … I can’t quite get my head round it, but could the forum have its own currency? Like the forum rep from before, but somehow more?

 

[MTF]

Have you looked at Steemit before @MTF? I’m not saying it’s a great example, but is this an example of a Web3 site where members “own” their accounts and are rewarded for publishing content that other members like?

I'm not entirely sure if Steemit is fully decentralized these days: Crypto Logic Platforms and the Cautionary Tale of Steemit

@MJ DeMarco … I can’t quite get my head round it, but could the forum have its own currency? Like the forum rep from before, but somehow more?

There could be a $FASTLANE token issued but setting it up as a smart contract rewarding participation would probably be quite difficult, also considering additional security you'd need.

A way more interesting thing would be an NFT limited to, say, 500 seats, with exclusive perks, behind the scenes, priority for new products, etc.

 

[Antifragile]

I read they had some "races" where members voted for new writers to join: $WRITE RACE — Mirror

But it seems to be paused now:

$WRITE RACE — Mirror

$WRITE RACE is a weekly showdown between people joining the Mirror DAO.

mirror.xyz

This is new tech from 2021. I think it'll take some time for blockchain based apps like Mirror to overtake web2 apps.
That said, I think the concepts are as sound as they come. The voting thing is gone and as of December they are open to anyone who has Eth in their wallet. As long as you are on Eth network, you can be part of Mirror.
Instead of web2 of read/write, now in web3 you got read/write/own.

For those with massive twitter followings, it's another way to monetize your writing. You could pre-sell your work for eth.

I do agree that their platform needs a LOT of work.

 

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[GPM]

The future is bright.

The internet was a pain in the arse pre 2000. I remember needing to download every video before watching it back in the day. I have distinct memories of being in computer class as a kid and spending the entire class hoping that the episode 1 star wars trailer would download and we could watch it before class ended.

Now we have YouTube and instant streaming of nearly anything ever recorded in the history of man.

 

[EVMaso]

Guys, I swear reading and learning about crypto and all this web3 stuff is like trying to drink from a firehose. I encounter way more information than I can possibly hope to properly absorb.

 

[Ocean Man]

Guys, I swear reading and learning about crypto and all this web3 stuff is like trying to drink from a firehose. I encounter way more information than I can possibly hope to properly absorb.

You don’t have to learn it all. Find areas of web3 that interest you and delve deeper into those. DeFi, DAOs, NFTs, etc.

 

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[Antifragile]

Guys, I swear reading and learning about crypto and all this web3 stuff is like trying to drink from a firehose. I encounter way more information than I can possibly hope to properly absorb.

The industry is moving at a rapid clip too… it’s hobby for me, so I feel the same way. Only people who are full time can begin to “keep up”. Still, such an exciting time to be watching this space. I’m sure it’ll overlap with my business soon enough and I’ll be ready.

 

[Roli]

$WAGMI on the Solana blockchain.

Purchase with the Phantom or any other Solana wallet.


Thank me later.

 

[Timmy C]

$WAGMI on the Solana blockchain.

Purchase with the Phantom or any other Solana wallet.


Thank me later.

Seems promising.

It's super hard to outperform Ethereum I find, but I should get some Link and Sol.

 

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[Antifragile]

$WAGMI on the Solana blockchain.

Purchase with the Phantom or any other Solana wallet.


Thank me later.

I’ll thank you right now buddy, if you elaborate and maybe share a little more! I’m only 6 months into the web3 rabbit hole and part time too. Hard to keep up. SOL had a meteoric rise in 2021. Huge success for their speed! Tell us more. Thanks.

 

[MTF]

For all newbies... I was wondering how to approach investing (lump sum vs dollar cost averaging) and decided to do as suggested here:

How to dollar-cost average into crypto on Bankless

This tactic is the most effective way I know to increase your crypto wealth.

newsletter.banklesshq.com

Dollar-cost averaging (DCA) in crypto works like this:

1. You take the amount you want to invest in crypto: say $9,000
2. You pick a frequency and time period for your buys: say weekly over a year
3. You commit to the schedule and you follow through

That’s it!

It’d be really simple to implement the above: you might schedule your crypto purchases on Sundays at 8pm, buying part ETH and part BTC once a week. You’d buy $173 worth of this mix every Sunday, making 52 of these buys over the course of the year, investing your full $9,000 by the end.

This tactic ensures that you end up with the average price of those 52 combined Sundays throughout the year. You never bought too low, you never bought too high. You reduced the impact of volatility. And your cost-basis is a nice average price.

The time period requires some thought. If the period is too short you’ll find yourself overweight on a short-term trend. Too long and you’re missing upside. No one has the perfect answer on time period, some do 6-12 months, others longer. Less than 3 months is probably ineffective. With crypto cycles getting longer, I’d say 12 months seems about right if you’re starting now.

 

[Antifragile]

Wow. Thanks for your effort summarising this for us @MTF.

One of my key takeaways is that Crypto may start getting called Web3.

Another was that betting on infrastructure might be the best strategy (I read that as selling shovels).

I had to Google DAO:

View attachment 41283


One of my key takeaways from that Wikipedia article was:

If you are interested in going deeper @Andy Black

DAOs: Absorbing the Internet | The Generalist

What comes after the company? DAOs are an alternative vehicle for talent formation with revolutionary advantages and clear trade-offs.

www.readthegeneralist.com

https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefings

DAOs: Absorbing the Internet​

Actionable insights​

If you only have a couple of minutes to spare, here’s what investors, operators, and founders can learn about DAOs.

• DAOs are a new way of organizing people. Traditionally, a company structure has been the most effective free-market approach to accruing talent in pursuit of a goal. That labor is usually persuaded and controlled through wages. DAOs seek similar ends — the creation of value — but rely on a decentralized framework in which workers, users, and other stakeholders have true ownership of the entity.
• Various types of DAOs have emerged to serve different use-cases. As interest in the space has increased, DAOs have begun to diversify and experiment with the boundaries of what’s possible. There are DAOs for investing, DAOs for building new products, DAOs for socializing, and many iterations both between and beyond.
• Meaningful assets are being managed by these entities. Those skeptical of the crypto space in general and DAOs in particular, may want to reconsider their stance. These are organizations with real sway, and real capital. Tens of billions are being managed across top DAOs, with some, like Compound, boasting a treasury of almost $1 billion itself.
• We’re still early when it comes to DAO infrastructure. DAOs have many of the same needs as corporations, but must often deal with greater complexities given their scale, fluidity, and technical stack. That necessitated the emergence of tooling for formation, communication, collaboration, payments, and more. DAOs have a handful of providers to select across these categories, but by and large, choice is limited. We should expect many new entrants to the space in years to come.
• DAOs have clear vulnerabilities that have yet to be fully addressed. The first DAO was famously hacked, with a bad-actor attempting to siphon off millions in Ethereum. While DAOs are safer today, they carry risks. Contributors often join pseudonymously, meaning reputation capital is not entirely on the line. Furthermore, without sufficient protections, some DAOs are still vulnerable to exploitation.

 

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[Ing]

Btw:“ crypto cycle gets longer.“

What observations is that based on?
I so, than the prize had to rise far up now.
But who knows. I don’t.
If bear market comes now, the peak times of the last twi cycles are exactly the same.

 

[MitchC]

All of these celebrity and big brand nft deals like the new mila kunis tv show only being able to be watched by 10000 nft holders sound good for adoption.

But really it’s just moving millions of dollars of eth from long term holders who don’t want to sell and pay taxes, to paper hands celebrities that saw a get rich quick opportunity.

Long term this is still good for adoption but what we really need is nfts that people actually want, something people not in this space will open their wallets and buy eth so they can buy these with. Nike is probably one of the few companies that could do this. Kanye definitely. And I think Gary Vee was super early on doing this too.

 

[EVMaso]

You don’t have to learn it all. Find areas of web3 that interest you and delve deeper into those. DeFi, DAOs, NFTs, etc.

Yeah for sure! I will say though even the nuts and bolts of it, like transferring between various chains and wallets and "why do I have $500k of dex88.org coins in my Metamask" type of stuff still bogs me down sometimes.

So over the Christmas break I wanted to deep dive into Play2Earn games. Spoiler: They're all kind of shit right now. However I narrowed it down to 2 projects: Defi Kingdoms and Rising Sun (soon to be rebranded as Samurai Legends). Despite my background as a degenerate hardcore bone-grinding mobile gacha game player, I don't have the bandwidth at this time to properly min-max two games, so I opted to go with Samurai Legends. It's going to be a ride, and I'll definitely make my own thread for that.

 

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[Roli]

I’ll thank you right now buddy, if you elaborate and maybe share a little more! I’m only 6 months into the web3 rabbit hole and part time too. Hard to keep up. SOL had a meteoric rise in 2021. Huge success for their speed! Tell us more. Thanks.

Essentially it's on the Sol network and big things are going on at the moment.

$WAGMI are launching their gaming token $WAGMIX on the 3rd of Jan and are doing an airdrop to anyone holding more than 33k and are farming on Aldrin.

The token itself can be staked to add liquidity to swap pools. I'm just finding out about the joys of that, the interest is very impressive.

The platform is planning on releasing a bunch of games as I said and also a casino, then next to that a decentralised exchange (DEX), whereby using the WAGMI token will give you loads of benefits.

at the moment WAGMI is around 0.00081 Sol I personally have over 500k and am looking to get to 1m in order to unlock loads of whale benefits.

Obviously do your own research.

I recommend following them on Twitter and from there you'll get the Discord link. Definitely jump into their Discord as you'll get firsthand news about comps and airdrops.

Lastly we are in an uptrend, we have gone from just under 0.00020 to where we are now in about 2 weeks.

$WAGMI to the moon baby!

 

[Ocean Man]

Copied one of my LinkedIn articles and posted my first post on mirror.xyz, An Introduction to Big O Notation — Mirror