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HOT TOPIC Will the Wuhan Coronavirus kill us all?

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@momo

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Factories have already been closed for Chinese New Years, and many are being told by the government (including mine) to not return to work until Feb 10. This could easily be extended if the situation worsens.

Delays will be highly likely.
Oh shit my supplier is in China
 

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Bekit

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Here's my observation, as someone who does not consume mainstream media.

I sense that people have real fear about this, but I can't tell if that fear is justified or just something manufactured by skillful fearmongers.

The media has really heightened and honed their ability to breed real fear of diseases over the past few years.

Fear is naturally contagious, but there will always be those people who shrug it off and say, "Meh, whatever. It's not going to be as bad as they're trying to get you to think."

I'm one of those people. But it seems that we have gotten thinned out by the media's increasing ability to convince a huge number of people that it WILL be as bad or worse than we think.

I remember discussing Ebola a few years back with a co-worker who was genuinely terrified of Ebola. His attitude was the same as the one in this thread title: "Is Ebola going to kill us all?" I realized then, "Wow, people actually believe this!" This guy was not unstable or just a wuss. He was a manly dude, earning very high wages, well liked, extremely good looking, and overall someone who was enjoying life and fun to be around.

I remember SARS being a thing. I went to China in January of 2004, and lots of people were still wearing masks. I've noticed periodically the contrast between how EVERYONE in China seemed to be adopting mask wearing as a normal thing, and how very few people here do so. It seems to me that China has been MORE successful at breeding that fear population-wide, but we are catching up.

I think this fear becomes easier and easier to breed because every successive event taps into the fear that was already aroused in the last round and just layers on top of it. So for instance, all the fear that built up in my coworker who was afraid of Ebola will probably revive in full force, and now coronavirus will just build on that.

Is it possible to experience a worldwide pandemic? Yeah.

Is it likely that this is it? I don't think so.

Will it affect some people? Yes. Will it be heartbreaking for them? Yes.

But car accidents affect people every day, and we're not terrified to drive our cars. In fact, we tend to think, "It won't happen to me."

Car accidents cause about 40,000 deaths per year in the US [source]. Worldwide, there are an estimated 1.24 million car accident deaths per year [source].

I can see us freaking out and feeling like "it might affect me" if the numbers approach car accident numbers.

I can see us progressing to think, "it might kill us all" if the numbers rise to double or triple that.

Until the death toll for this comes closer to car accident numbers, though, I think it's all just a bunch of hype and manipulation.
I pooh-poohed this at first, but this video really brought some concerning facts to light...

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSIt496d82s


Pretty crazy.

(Also, I posted this in a different thread. I have a friend who lives in China, and this happened when she attempted to post a positive message about how to disinfect to kill coronavirus:

 

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I was at Costco tonight and it was unusually crowded, but orderly. Saw some folks wearing masks as well. A bit unnerving.
 
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loop101

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Are these N95 masks people are supposed to get? They are supposedly in stock from Amazon 3rd sellers. I was surprised to see them:
Amazon.com: 3M Particulate Respirator 8210, N95, Smoke, Dust, Grinding, Sanding, Sawing, Sweeping, 20/Pack: Computers & Accessories
Those are the masks most people are getting, assuming they can find them. (It's hard to know how much good they'd do, but they'd almost surely be better than nothing.) Alas, the reason you see them in stock is because at $88, they're priced obnoxiously high. I bought the same exact 20-pack a week ago on Amazon for $15.20. If this blows over, the price will go back down again eventually. But do you wait? Man, that's a hard call.

Jeez. While I was writing this response, they literally sold out. Crazy.

I was at Costco tonight and it was unusually crowded, but orderly. Saw some folks wearing masks as well. A bit unnerving.
Yikes. It's good to see people taking precautions and stocking up, but still, that would definitely be unnerving.
 
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loop101

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Those are the masks most people are getting, assuming they can find them. (It's hard to know how much good they'd do, but they'd almost surely be better than nothing.) Alas, the reason you see them in stock is because at $88, they're priced obnoxiously high. I bought the same exact 20-pack a week ago on Amazon for $15.20. If this blows over, the price will go back down again eventually. But do you wait? Man, that's a hard call.

Jeez. While I was writing this response, they literally sold out. Crazy.


Yikes. It's good to see people taking precautions and stocking up, but still, that would definitely be unnerving.
CVS's website sold out, masks were 25 cents a piece, lol. Amazon still has some N95's at $10 a mask. 25 for $250.

A co-worker just returned from a vacation in China, they told them to work from home for the next 2 weeks. Or 3 weeks, if they wanted.
 

ChickenHawk

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CVS's website sold out, masks were 25 cents a piece, lol. Amazon still has some N95's at $10 a mask. 25 for $250.
Holy crap! It really makes you think, you know? Right now, we're talking about masks of debatable usefulness. Just imagine if it's ever food or water. Right now, you can still easily find food and water at regular prices. That could change almost overnight under the right (aka wrong) conditions.

Seeing stuff like this makes me want to scamper to the store for more water, etc.
 

andrewsyc

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If you're in relatively good health I wouldn't worry too much.
There's a lot you can do to stop a lot of viruses in their tracks, I won't even get my flu shot anymore, just stack a bunch of specific antivirals that target different parts of the viruses replication process when it hits and it'll reduce the replication speed by a factor of 8 or more. Slow a step by 50% in 3 different areas (1/2)^3 = 1/8. The virus simply can't move nearly as fast and the body gets the upper hand very rapidly.

Let's given an example, influenza h1n1:
Quercetin (supplement you can pick up at local store):
"Virus entry is the initial step of the viral replication cycle; prevention of viral entry leads to suppression of viral infectivity and is an attractive antiviral strategy"
Very broad spectrum.
Other supplements that may work are: Berberine, Curcumin, Resveratrol. Just look it up on nih.gov in a google search. A lot of those supplements work on cold viruses and other entroviruses. What they do is counteract a lot of the dysregulation viruses introduce to a host environment to significantly enhance replication. Dose and absorption are a little less clear but they are relatively safe even at very high doses.

AZT (zidovudine): AZT-TP mainly prevents the incorporation of incoming nucleotide involved in initiation of vRNA replication. Conversely, 2FdGTP used as a positive control binds to pocket-B at the end of tunnel-II with a highest ΔG of - 16.3 Kcal/mol inhibiting chain termination with a similar IC50 (inhibitory concentration 50% replication) of 1.12 µM

and of course tamiflu (Oseltamivir):
"Oseltamivir is a neuraminidase inhibitor, a competitive inhibitor of influenza's neuraminidase enzyme. The enzyme cleaves the sialic acid which is found on glycoproteins on the surface of human cells that helps new virions to exit the cell" Last stage of replication.

I know I'm a little nuts on the different medications one can use, it just bothers me that some drugs aren't repurposed fast enough for other diseases they might work for or an old drug has to go through some rigorous clinical trial.
 

andrewsyc

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One day these numbers will drop, but not today.


View attachment 30015

View attachment 30016
Those are ones they only admit to, I heard that it's very likely north of 100,000. :(
Seems like a common thing with the CCP does is ignore a problem until absolutely it can't be ignored in order that they may save face.
In popular culture the novel "World War Z" This act caused the zombie outbreak to become unmanageable and spread.

"Although the exact origin and cause of the plague is unknown, a young boy from a village called Dachang in Chongqing, China is identified as the outbreak's official patient zero. The zombies of this setting are slow-moving, with no intelligence or senses, but with almost superhuman strength and a primal drive to consume living flesh (for reasons unknown, they possess the ability to tell the difference between the living and the dead). Infected corpses have a greatly reduced rate of decomposition, are immune to damage by most chemical means such as from freezing or sea water, and can only be killed permanently by destroying the brain.

China initiates a military crisis with Taiwan to distract from their attempts to contain the initial outbreaks. However, the plague continues to spread to neighbouring nations by human trafficking, refugees and the black market organ trade. Initially these nations are able to cover up their smaller outbreaks, until a much larger outbreak in South Africa brings the plague to public attention. At this point, the public and governments around the world begin to refer to the plague as "African Rabies", as most believe the zombies to merely be humans infected with a new strain of rabies rather than the living dead."


On a side note, I highly recommend the dramatized audiobook of WWZ, it's one of the best productions I've listened to. Several different narrators from Alan Alda, Rob Reiner, Mark Hammal, John Turturro.
 

ZF Lee

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Holy crap! It really makes you think, you know? Right now, we're talking about masks of debatable usefulness. Just imagine if it's ever food or water. Right now, you can still easily find food and water at regular prices. That could change almost overnight under the right (aka wrong) conditions.

Seeing stuff like this makes me want to scamper to the store for more water, etc.
I see opportunity in buying/selling bug-out bags, survival info reports and ‘escape route’ plans...

me thinks I should re-route my copywriting gigs and practice to target businesses in the SHTF/survival niche.

But even ‘investing for the boogaloo’ should take significant investment, pretty much like contributing to a portfolio, due to the accumulated cost of tools, supplies and prep...to blow full cash on supplies may be foolhardy.

I think after I’ve locked in on masks and sanitizers, I’ll get bug-out bag basics, using some lists from the preppers subreddit, and load up on dried foodstuff lol.

If got extra time, I might get some excess supply and go @Xeon’s way haha.
 

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MattR82

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I see opportunity in buying/selling bug-out bags, survival info reports and ‘escape route’ plans...

me thinks I should re-route my copywriting gigs and practice to target businesses in the SHTF/survival niche.

But even ‘investing for the boogaloo’ should take significant investment, pretty much like contributing to a portfolio, due to the accumulated cost of tools, supplies and prep...to blow full cash on supplies may be foolhardy.

I think after I’ve locked in on masks and sanitizers, I’ll get bug-out bag basics, using some lists from the preppers subreddit, and load up on dried foodstuff lol.

If got extra time, I might get some excess supply and go @Xeon’s way haha.
I dunno man, personally I wouldn't feel good about cashing in on people during an emergency at this time. Just feels a bit too icky for me.
 

Lex DeVille

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I dunno man, personally I wouldn't feel good about cashing in on people during an emergency at this time. Just feels a bit too icky for me.
There is no emergency for the target audience of bug-out-bags. People in an emergency are dealing with the immediacy of the situation at hand. They are responding. Not mitigating, nor preparing.

If your hair catches fire, you will do whatever you can to put it out with the resources at your disposal. You will not go shopping for fire extinguishers. And if your car skids on ice and careens off the road, your response will not be to shop Tire Rack for new tires. You will call the police and probably a tow truck and maybe an ambulance if you are hurt.

People in an emergency respond to the immediate situation, so there is nothing to feel "icky" about because those people will not be your customers until the emergency subsides.
 
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ZF Lee

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I dunno man, personally I wouldn't feel good about cashing in on people during an emergency at this time. Just feels a bit too icky for me.
Me too, TBH.

For myself, since it’s my first time looking at a business selling position in an emergency, I would just go in to learn stuff.

I’ve subbed quite a few SHTF newsletters, and one good selling point I see them using Isn’t always the urgency/scarcity angle, but more on ‘clarifying fake news/clearing up poor online content/myths’

One could choose to sell to the hyper-desperate buyers, but I find the ‘picky’ buyer types who still check into details (‘Is this mask really N95?) more interesting.


There is no emergency for the target audience of bug-out-bags. People in an emergency are dealing with the immediacy of the situation at hand. They are responding. Not mitigating, nor preparing.

If your hair catches fire, you will do whatever you can to put it out with the resources at your disposal. You will not go shopping for fire extinguishers. And if your car skids on ice and careens off the road, your response will not be to shop Tire Rack for new tires. You will call the police and probably a tow truck and maybe an ambulance if you are hurt.

People in an emergency respond to the immediate situation, so there is nothing to feel "icky" about because those people will not be your customers until the emergency subsides.
True.

I’ve been wondering though if this crisis could chain to another...these few weeks have been very eventful with other happenings haha.
 

MattR82

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There is no emergency for the target audience of bug-out-bags. People in an emergency are dealing with the immediacy of the situation at hand. They are responding. Not mitigating, nor preparing.

If your hair catches fire, you will do whatever you can to put it out with the resources at your disposal. You will not go shopping for fire extinguishers. And if your car skids on ice and careens off the road, your response will not be to shop Tire Rack for new tires. You will call the police and probably a tow truck and maybe an ambulance if you are hurt.

People in an emergency respond to the immediate situation, so there is nothing to feel "icky" about because those people will not be your customers until the emergency subsides.
I'm talking about in this instance, hurriedly trying to profit of a current disaster.

I think I may have read his posts wrong.
 
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BizyDad

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I dunno man, personally I wouldn't feel good about cashing in on people during an emergency at this time. Just feels a bit too icky for me.
How about shorting airline stocks? I mean...

 

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Talking about stocks...

View attachment 30067

Being the primary website where people get their masks does have its advantages in a disease scare.
"I'm so glad I joined the FIRE movement, only to be dependent on the stock market to live my life"
 

Jake

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Talking about stocks...

View attachment 30067

Being the primary website where people get their masks does have its advantages in a disease scare.
Amazon is still highly reliant on sellers of Chinese goods and selling Chinese goods themselves. Every single supplier I've spoken to in China has absolutely no idea when they will go back to work again and when they will start producing / shipping again. Expect a blood bath all around..global trade is going to get hammered. The only benefit being cheaper oil for those producing elsewhere.
 

ShepardHumphries

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If it doesn't kill up, ebola or the talibans or the illegal messicans, or the gays, or the marijuanas will. Geesh, the stuff they try to scare us with! lol
 

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ShepardHumphries

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When the clock strikes midnight.... 1999 going in to 2000.... WE ARE SCREWED!!! Oh wait, I lived. But in all seriousness, we are all going to die so everyone needs to send me all of their money NOW! DO NOT wait another day! Because if you wait another day, you might figure out you aren't dead yet.... but that's beside the point.... SEND YOUR MONEY NOW!!! Send me a message for PayPal invoice.
Amen! Yet another thing that I need to be protected from by my benevolent masters who ask only for 40% a year of the fruits of my labor...
 

richxiaohe

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Well, it seems there's no one comes from China here.
Since I'm in the province near Wuhan now. And there're 20 confirmed cases in my place(1km - 5km around, and there's one in my community) til yesterday, what I saw is:
1. the situation is worse than SARS.
2. many people died before they has been confirmed(in Wuhan), so the actual numbers is more than published(there's some one calculated it by data from Funeral Home, we can ensure that from help information on weibo.)
3. Although it's worse than usual, most provinces are returning to normal this week or next week(the epidemic affect Wuhan mainly, even in Wuhan my friend there told me it's Controllable).
So, absolutely we won't be killed.
what I wanna know is its impact on economy and the stock market. what will economy evolve after this epidemic.
 
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Kevin88660

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Well, it seems there's no one comes from China here.
Since I'm in the province near Wuhan now. And there're 20 confirmed cases in my place(1km - 5km around, and there's one in my community) til yesterday, what I saw is:
1. the situation is worse than SARS.
2. many people died before they has been confirmed(in Wuhan), so the actual numbers is more than published(there's some one calculated it by data from Funeral Home, we can ensure that from help information on weibo.)
3. Although it's worse than usual, most provinces are returning to normal this week or next week(the epidemic affect Wuhan mainly, even in Wuhan my friend there told me it's Controllable).
So, absolutely we won't be killed.
what I wanna know is its impact on economy and the stock market. what will economy evolve after this epidemic.
I am in Singapore. We have 2-3 news cases confirmed daily.

I do not buy into the perception that Chinese government is doing a cover up.

Ya surely there are people who died before getting diagnosed. For every such cases there is probably 98 cases of people who are infected but recovered on their own, therefore mistaking it as a flu. This does not inflate or underreports the death statistics.

From the statistics on international traveller evacuated, it is much like a new flu. People who got the virus outside China do not have a significant higher death rate.

From a biological perspective virus evolve to coexist with the host. It is not in the interest of the virus to kill the host.

And the world is insanely focused on stopping the virus from spreading.

I am putting where my money is by investing heavily into Chinese equities and Crude oil service providers who got hit badly in the market by this crisis. So far it worked really well as there is a recent pullback in the market. I will continue to buy the dips.
 

ShepardHumphries

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I am in Singapore. We have 2-3 news cases confirmed daily.

I do not buy into the perception that Chinese government is doing a cover up.

Ya surely there are people who died before getting diagnosed. For every such cases there is probably 98 cases of people who are infected but recovered on their own, therefore mistaking it as a flu. This does not inflate or underreports the death statistics.

From the statistics on international traveller evacuated, it is much like a new flu. People who got the virus outside China do not have a significant higher death rate.

From a biological perspective virus evolve to coexist with the host. It is not in the interest of the virus to kill the host.

And the world is insanely focused on stopping the virus from spreading.

I am putting where my money is by investing heavily into Chinese equities and Crude oil service providers who got hit badly in the market by this crisis. So far it worked really well as there is a recent pullback in the market. I will continue to buy the dips.
You seem like a rational thinker, nice.
 

Xeon

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what I wanna know is its impact on economy and the stock market. what will economy evolve after this epidemic.
I wouldn't worry too much about that if you're talking about China's economy. Its growth has been steady and going up and this is only a temporary dent. All kinds of international experts have been "predicting" and "analyzing" the death of China's economy since 2000 LOL

What I'm more interested is, will chinese manufacturers and factories charge lower prices for production due to this virus? :smile:
 

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I think, we will all die!
But most of car accidents, cancer and so on.... but the number of deads of the corona in western countries will not be remarkable.

Just forget about it! Is my prediction.
 
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Defection

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What I'm more interested is, will chinese manufacturers and factories charge lower prices for production due to this virus? :smile:
I'm more concerned about the virus and the people whose lives have been devastatingly affected by it. Many people have lost their friends and family members.

If anything, this is the time we should be giving rather than taking from them.
 

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Is it just me or does Wuhan Coronavirus sound like a weird band?
 

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