So were any of you in business for the last one? If so, what did you do then? Did that business survive or did it fall? Give us the low-down.
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Free registration at the forum removes this block.This is a great thread. I've been having the same thoughts. A recession has to be around the corner(0-2 years?). I agree with the OP, it could be very bad.
To me, the Dow could fall from 24,000 to 14,000 and still not be 'cheap'. The Dow was expensive before the crash when it was ~14,000 and the only thing that's changed is low interest rates.
I'm currently all cash. My debate is whether to buy rental properties during the next downturn or buy stocks.
I'm also studying a second profession to add marketability.
Personally, I'll take income real estate any day. I have a lot more control over my rentals. People have to live somewhere. In a down turn, I adjust my rents. As long as I follow the law, I can vet and control my renters. I can change management directions, and control my bottom line.Have you made a decision here yet, re stocks vs real estate?
I do own some shares of a particular stock, because it's for a mining project here in Alaska. They are in the permitting stage, and they plan to build some of infrastructure for the project down the coast from me. I know people who are working and have worked on that project. It a "home town" project. I'm willing to hold and watch how it plays out.
If you search archives, there have been "The coming recession/crash" threads since 2010. I think this time it will happen for real. Pretty soon. And I do not think cash will be the safe heaven. Gold is safer.
Yes, it is. Yes,the stock is down right now due to the option to partner. I like the direction they are going with the project. I like the fact that their plans are out of the Bristol Bay water shed and they are going to have their dock and facilities on Cook Inlet rather than going through Bristol Bay. I like the fact it is on State land and the State needs the royalties. I think it's going to be built. I'm going to a reception for Governor Walker this coming Saturday night in Anchorage. I'm going to ask him about that project and the LNG project that is planned for 3 1/2 miles up the road from me.This isn't the Pebble Mine is it?
Have you made a decision here yet, re stocks vs real estate?
Personally, I'll take income real estate any day. I have a lot more control over my rentals. People have to live somewhere. In a down turn, I adjust my rents.
Two possibilities I've been thinking of are either something political happens (Trump gets impeached, or really loses his mind) or the crazy weather continues or gets worse and people start to truly panic about global warming.
Long term our country's debt will spiral out of control and that will become an actual concern, since our politicians seem incapable of fixing that, but that may be awhile?
A guy comes in to the police station and is talking about how he invests in diamonds, and gets them at fantastic prices. Another guy says he's an idiot, no matter how cheap he gets them for. The first guy can't believe what he just heard, and asks why is he an idiot? The second guy says that nobody will need, or even want, diamonds if the economy crashes. Supplies to live on, shelter, and land will - however - be in great demand.
I've lived through a few currency collapses in other countries. The US dollar is unlikely co collapse, unless it collapses together with all the other fiat world currencies and people will switch to barter. But a significant inflation is very likely. These already was hyperinflation in the US in the 70's.I do wonder, if the USD collapsed, what would happen to various assets? Stocks, Gold, Real Estate, Land would be fine right? They would just be revalued in the new currency. Savings accounts and bonds would be worthless, right.
When I started in real estate in 1976, interest rates were 9.5%. Then, at the start of 1980, interest rates went to 21% and 22%. Real estate stopped in its tracks.These already was hyperinflation in the US in the 70's...
In case of high inflation it is safer to be in debt (assuming you make payments and have food to eat) than to sit on a pile of cash. Both the pile of cash and the debt will vaporize in case of hyperinflation. I would rather lose the debt than the cash. This is why I do not want to part with my two mortgages. They are adjustable rate mortgages but are capped at 8%. Insead of paying them off I look for solid assets to buy.
If the debt is large, but the payments are small and fixed, then the debt disappears when the hyperinflation kicks in. The prices and the incomes go up, and all of a suddden your debt is not large but tiny. You pay it off easily and quickly with the new inflated cheap money. And you get to keep the underlying asset at the end.Your talking about OPM (other people's money) is safer. Uh? When the next recession happened starting around 1990, a bunch of my friends were over extended on their real estate investments. We had been experiences hyperinflation and then thing suddenly stopped -- and the prices started slipping. A bunch of my friends went belly-up and lost everything.
Maybe. If the world turns just the way you think it will. I don't count on that kind of luck...If the debt is large, but the payments are small and fixed, then the debt disappears when the hyperinflation kicks in. The prices and the incomes go up, and all of a suddden your debt is not large but tiny. You pay it off easily and quickly with the new inflated cheap money. And you get to keep the underlying asset at the end.
If you have a loan/mortgage with high payments, and you rely on the rental income to pay it off, and you suddenly lose that income, then yes, you're screwed.
When I started in real estate in 1976, interest rates were 9.5%. Then, at the start of 1980, interest rates went to 21% and 22%. Real estate stopped in its tracks.
Yes, when the time is right, I will sell out. In the meantime, I get up and go to work everyday. And I'm proud of that.
I've been self employed in various aspects of the real estate business for 42 years. Now that I supposed to be retired, I'm a professional real estate investor in residential rentals, summertime RV spaces, and trust deeds. I also own a self-service laundromat. I don't care if it's considered to be Fastlane or not, since the majority of my activities create Passive Income.The only other comment I have is you being proud of going to work every day. Really? Well, hmph... I can't judge that because I don't know what it is that you do. If you own your business and it is a tourist hang out on the bay, then horray for you! If it's answering phones for a banker... then you need a slap. Maybe two. Your comment, though, seems to go against the very heart of Fastlane. No, we should not want to go to a job everyday.
Besides those comments, I do completely enjoy your comments and valuable insight. Your voice of experience is loud and clear here, which is a rare and very good thing!
I've been self employed in various aspects of the real estate business for 42 years. Now that I supposed to be retired, I'm a professional real estate investor in residential rentals, summertime RV spaces, and trust deeds. I also own a self-service laundromat. I don't care if it's considered to be Fastlane or not, since the majority of my activities create Passive Income.
Yes I could sell out and never work another day in my life. I have worked since I was 11 years old when I lost my Grandmother. I guess I don't know how to NOT work. It keeps me interested in life and learning. I get to play Monopoly with real money. Making deals is the fun part.
And as a side issue, I get to help many people around me, and I touch a lot of lives. I believe in random acts of kindness and paying forward.
I love real estate because nobody can take it away, unlike a job or stocks.
Yes I could sell out and never work another day in my life. I have worked since I was 11 years old when I lost my Grandmother. I guess I don't know how to NOT work. It keeps me interested in life and learning. I get to play Monopoly with real money. Making deals is the fun part.
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Can you elaborate on this or is this private?
No, the scientific and technical progress in the last 50-100 years alone has not shown to lower the price of healthcare. Quite the opposite. Nor is the proress likely to cause a recession. It is the OPM (other peoples money) that everyone in the industry, especially the insured patients, is so eager to spend, plus the good old hungry lawyers, that are responsible for the spiraling costs.I can't speak to what he posted, but if you watch the JRE video on page 2, it sounds like stem cell injections may cure a lot of major issues better than anything else. Imagine 1 treatment that can cure 50 major problems. If true, that's major disruption. Many thousands will be healthier, and many thousands will lose their job.
The basic healthcare is simple and cheap. Always been and will always be.
If I may pipe in from a mother's perspective, I agree wholeheartedly about the medical industrial complex. Lots of people are turning to alternative healthcare providers and concierge type practices and medical sharing programs. This is the future IMO.
Christian Healthcare is an insurance alternative, medical sharing program.This is news to me. Can you provide more details?
This is news to me. Can you provide more details?
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