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HOT TOPIC The coming recession

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minivanman

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So were any of you in business for the last one? If so, what did you do then? Did that business survive or did it fall? Give us the low-down.
 

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ernesto50

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This is a great thread. I've been having the same thoughts. A recession has to be around the corner(0-2 years?). I agree with the OP, it could be very bad.
To me, the Dow could fall from 24,000 to 14,000 and still not be 'cheap'. The Dow was expensive before the crash when it was ~14,000 and the only thing that's changed is low interest rates.

I'm currently all cash. My debate is whether to buy rental properties during the next downturn or buy stocks.

I'm also studying a second profession to add marketability.

Have you made a decision here yet, re stocks vs real estate?
 

butfirstcoffee

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Two possibilities I've been thinking of are either something political happens (Trump gets impeached, or really loses his mind) or the crazy weather continues or gets worse and people start to truly panic about global warming.

Long term our country's debt will spiral out of control and that will become an actual concern, since our politicians seem incapable of fixing that, but that may be awhile?
 

WJK

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Have you made a decision here yet, re stocks vs real estate?
Personally, I'll take income real estate any day. I have a lot more control over my rentals. People have to live somewhere. In a down turn, I adjust my rents. As long as I follow the law, I can vet and control my renters. I can change management directions, and control my bottom line.

I do own some shares of a particular stock, because it's for a mining project here in Alaska. They are in the permitting stage, and they plan to build some of infrastructure for the project down the coast from me. I know people who are working and have worked on that project. It a "home town" project. I'm willing to hold and watch how it plays out.
 

natopotato

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I do own some shares of a particular stock, because it's for a mining project here in Alaska. They are in the permitting stage, and they plan to build some of infrastructure for the project down the coast from me. I know people who are working and have worked on that project. It a "home town" project. I'm willing to hold and watch how it plays out.

This isn't the Pebble Mine is it?
 

Supercar

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Some of my stocks are peaking just like the bitcoin a month ago. Will the market crash next month or next year? LOL!

If you search archives, there have been "The coming recession/crash" threads since 2010. I think this time it will happen for real. Pretty soon. And I do not think cash will be the safe haven. Gold is safer.

I also wonder whether the cryptos will crash or skyrocket. It will depend on the cause of the recession. If it is related to money printing and inflation, then the cryptos will be the asset to hold. If it is something else, then the cryptos may seize to be an "asset" until the recovery.
 
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Kid

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I see the stocks achieving record highs. The only thing that, in my opinion, is lacking to make recession or crash is big push by retail investors.

In 2008/9 there was push on subprime lending. In 2000 there was internet push.

Now, there is no country/global scale push on something. The crypto market capitalization was roughly halved and it didn't trigger meaningful stocks price reduction.

I guess that when people will get confident that there is some kind risk-less investment, based on overall good economy indicators, they will start to invest unwisely. That will be the beginning of recession.
 

Real Deal Denver

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If you search archives, there have been "The coming recession/crash" threads since 2010. I think this time it will happen for real. Pretty soon. And I do not think cash will be the safe heaven. Gold is safer.

I learned a very valuable less from the show Barney Miller - must be 20 to 30 years ago. I recognize good advice, and never forget it when I run across it.

A guy comes in to the police station and is talking about how he invests in diamonds, and gets them at fantastic prices. Another guy says he's an idiot, no matter how cheap he gets them for. The first guy can't believe what he just heard, and asks why is he an idiot? The second guy says that nobody will need, or even want, diamonds if the economy crashes. Supplies to live on, shelter, and land will - however - be in great demand.

End of story.

So fast forward. The economy crashes and you have a stash of 100 Krugerrands in mint condition. Good luck with me selling or trading you some gasoline, or tires, or food, for your shiny gold. Don't need it, and can't use it for anything. I don't know how much cash will be worth, but at least it will be the most liquid asset we have, until it crashes and everything is done on a barter system. That wouldn't happen overnight, so I'd have time to liquidate my cash - and I am sure not going to be using it to buy gold or diamonds!

End of story.
 

WJK

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This isn't the Pebble Mine is it?
Yes, it is. Yes,the stock is down right now due to the option to partner. I like the direction they are going with the project. I like the fact that their plans are out of the Bristol Bay water shed and they are going to have their dock and facilities on Cook Inlet rather than going through Bristol Bay. I like the fact it is on State land and the State needs the royalties. I think it's going to be built. I'm going to a reception for Governor Walker this coming Saturday night in Anchorage. I'm going to ask him about that project and the LNG project that is planned for 3 1/2 miles up the road from me.
 

justonemore

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Have you made a decision here yet, re stocks vs real estate?

No, haven't made up my mind.
I'm curious what others here are doing.
From what I've seen, there's no real deals left in realestate and stocks, to me, seem overpriced by over 100%.
So I'm staying cash until things blow up again.


Personally, I'll take income real estate any day. I have a lot more control over my rentals. People have to live somewhere. In a down turn, I adjust my rents.

I agree with you. That's what my gut says.
With Amazon killing off companies left and right, and AI and Robotics will probably follow, I'm not sure I would want to be in any single stock.
An index is safer, but still, when can you ever buy in at a good price?
You would be a fool to buy in now I think.


Two possibilities I've been thinking of are either something political happens (Trump gets impeached, or really loses his mind) or the crazy weather continues or gets worse and people start to truly panic about global warming.

Long term our country's debt will spiral out of control and that will become an actual concern, since our politicians seem incapable of fixing that, but that may be awhile?


There's a lot of things that could go wrong.
In theory, the Fed can't print money or keep interest rates at 0% forever. Raising them could trigger it.
North Korea is a big issue.
FBI/CIA corruption if true could be a big issue.
Something happening to the president would lead to chaos.
Some countries are tying to bypass the USD as the world reserve currency. That could be a problem.
Or it could just be natural. The market turns over and people take their profits while they can.

I do wonder, if the USD collapsed, what would happen to various assets? Stocks, Gold, Real Estate, Land would be fine right? They would just be revalued in the new currency. Savings accounts and bonds would be worthless, right.


A guy comes in to the police station and is talking about how he invests in diamonds, and gets them at fantastic prices. Another guy says he's an idiot, no matter how cheap he gets them for. The first guy can't believe what he just heard, and asks why is he an idiot? The second guy says that nobody will need, or even want, diamonds if the economy crashes. Supplies to live on, shelter, and land will - however - be in great demand.

There's a problem with that logic.
It assumes a binary On/Off crash. AKA, things crash 100% and it's people shooting each other for food, or there's 0% crash.
More than likely, any crash will be in the middle. Like the last one, plus or minus 25%.
I've been told stories(probably half true) of the great depression where if you have an ounce of gold, you could basically buy a football team.
 
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Supercar

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I do wonder, if the USD collapsed, what would happen to various assets? Stocks, Gold, Real Estate, Land would be fine right? They would just be revalued in the new currency. Savings accounts and bonds would be worthless, right.
I've lived through a few currency collapses in other countries. The US dollar is unlikely co collapse, unless it collapses together with all the other fiat world currencies and people will switch to barter. But a significant inflation is very likely. These already was hyperinflation in the US in the 70's.

In case on a high inflation, almost everything will devalue. I think gold and land will be the only assets to hold. Art too, if you know what to buy and can afford it. The real estate will crash. Even land will become cheaper in dollars (at least initially until the inflation brings the prices up), and of course in terms of gold as well. The stocks will crash. Very few businesses would benefit from hyperinflation. Perhaps only precious metal and other mining stocks.

In case of high inflation it is safer to be in debt (assuming you make payments and have food to eat) than to sit on a pile of cash. Both the pile of cash and the debt will vaporize in case of hyperinflation. I would rather lose the debt than the cash. This is why I do not want to pay off my two mortgages. They are adjustable rate mortgages but are capped at 8%. Insead of paying them off I look for solid assets to buy.
 

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WJK

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These already was hyperinflation in the US in the 70's...
In case of high inflation it is safer to be in debt (assuming you make payments and have food to eat) than to sit on a pile of cash. Both the pile of cash and the debt will vaporize in case of hyperinflation. I would rather lose the debt than the cash. This is why I do not want to part with my two mortgages. They are adjustable rate mortgages but are capped at 8%. Insead of paying them off I look for solid assets to buy.
When I started in real estate in 1976, interest rates were 9.5%. Then, at the start of 1980, interest rates went to 21% and 22%. Real estate stopped in its tracks.

Your talking about OPM (other people's money) is safer. Uh? When the next recession happened starting around 1990, a bunch of my friends were over extended on their real estate investments. We had been experiences hyperinflation and then thing suddenly stopped -- and the prices started slipping. A bunch of my friends went belly-up and lost everything.

During that run up in late 1980s, my parents sold an apartment building. The buyer was doing a 1031 transaction (tax deferred exchange). I made the buyer formally assume the loan. The buyer and his agent were up in arms -- telling me I was crazy and didn't know what I was doing. I was too conservative and I didn't understand investing. But, I held my ground for my parents best interests. When he lost the building in the subsequent downturn, the bank tried to come back on my parents and put on their credit. I paid the bank a visit with our paperwork in hand, and got it all straightened out.

This is my 6th business cycle. I don't sit out markets. I simply run against them. When everyone is buying, I'm selling. When everyone is selling, I am buying.

I understand my segment of the real estate market and I am basically recession proof. I have low to moderate income rentals, RV spaces during the summers, a couple of guest rooms -- all located in my mobile home park; a self-service Laundromat; and on the side, a trust deed business. Everyone has to have a place to live -- and regularly, they have to wash their clothes.

Yes, when the time is right, I will sell out. In the meantime, I get up and go to work everyday. And I'm proud of that.
 
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Supercar

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Your talking about OPM (other people's money) is safer. Uh? When the next recession happened starting around 1990, a bunch of my friends were over extended on their real estate investments. We had been experiences hyperinflation and then thing suddenly stopped -- and the prices started slipping. A bunch of my friends went belly-up and lost everything.
If the debt is large, but the payments are small and fixed, then the debt disappears when the hyperinflation kicks in. The prices and the incomes go up, and all of a suddden your debt is not large but tiny. You pay it off easily and quickly with the new inflated cheap money. And you get to keep the underlying asset at the end.

If you have a loan/mortgage with high payments, and you rely on the rental income to pay it off, and you suddenly lose that income, then yes, you're screwed.
 

WJK

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If the debt is large, but the payments are small and fixed, then the debt disappears when the hyperinflation kicks in. The prices and the incomes go up, and all of a suddden your debt is not large but tiny. You pay it off easily and quickly with the new inflated cheap money. And you get to keep the underlying asset at the end.

If you have a loan/mortgage with high payments, and you rely on the rental income to pay it off, and you suddenly lose that income, then yes, you're screwed.
Maybe. If the world turns just the way you think it will. I don't count on that kind of luck...
I have experienced hyperinflation, then a total drop in market values, coupled with a huge disruption in rental income streams.
We had whole Class A office buildings that sat vacant in downtown Los Angeles in the early 1990s. We called them "see through" buildings. It was the effect of the recession, voice mail and computerization. These vacancies cascaded through every level of the office building market. That also caused a similar effect in the industrial/warehouse market due to on-time deliveries rather than 60 days worth of inventory on hand. It all happened at the same time. And a bunch of these buildings were owned by investors from Japan. They dumped their holds here because they had to make margin calls in their stock market -- which had deflated due to their deep recession. Their economy has never really come back since that dip.
That was the worst recession California had ever had, including the 1930s depression. And it went on until almost the end of the decade.
And that only one cycle I've been through. Shall I go on? I have 42 years in the real estate business and 64 years of living -- so I think about things differently from you...
 

Real Deal Denver

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When I started in real estate in 1976, interest rates were 9.5%. Then, at the start of 1980, interest rates went to 21% and 22%. Real estate stopped in its tracks.

Yes, when the time is right, I will sell out. In the meantime, I get up and go to work everyday. And I'm proud of that.

Just a couple of side notes... I bought my first home in 1978 and was lucky to get 11.5%. It dipped down briefly from 13% we were locked into, and we grabbed it. The greedy banker was not going to give us the lower rate - until we said, in no uncertain terms, that we would tear up the contract and walk down the street to their competition to start a new loan, with the new shiny 11.5% interest rate. He quickly realized his foolish mistake and grabbed our money with his cold bony hands - just as if we were new customers walking through the front door that day. I should have tore it up right there, as I have a distinct dislike for anyone that takes a lunge at me in trying to put me in such an unfavorable position. But back then, I was nice. I've learned so much since then, and now refuse to do business or even associate with vermin such as this.

The only other comment I have is you being proud of going to work every day. Really? Well, hmph... I can't judge that because I don't know what it is that you do. If you own your business and it is a tourist hang out on the bay, then horray for you! If it's answering phones for a banker... then you need a slap. Maybe two. Your comment, though, seems to go against the very heart of Fastlane. No, we should not want to go to a job everyday.

Besides those comments, I do completely enjoy your comments and valuable insight. Your voice of experience is loud and clear here, which is a rare and very good thing!
 

WJK

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The only other comment I have is you being proud of going to work every day. Really? Well, hmph... I can't judge that because I don't know what it is that you do. If you own your business and it is a tourist hang out on the bay, then horray for you! If it's answering phones for a banker... then you need a slap. Maybe two. Your comment, though, seems to go against the very heart of Fastlane. No, we should not want to go to a job everyday.

Besides those comments, I do completely enjoy your comments and valuable insight. Your voice of experience is loud and clear here, which is a rare and very good thing!
I've been self employed in various aspects of the real estate business for 42 years. Now that I supposed to be retired, I'm a professional real estate investor in residential rentals, summertime RV spaces, and trust deeds. I also own a self-service laundromat. I don't care if it's considered to be Fastlane or not, since the majority of my activities create Passive Income.

Yes I could sell out and never work another day in my life. I have worked since I was 11 years old when I lost my Grandmother. I guess I don't know how to NOT work. It keeps me interested in life and learning. I get to play Monopoly with real money. Making deals is the fun part.

And as a side issue, I get to help many people around me, and I touch a lot of lives. I believe in random acts of kindness and paying forward.
 

Real Deal Denver

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I've been self employed in various aspects of the real estate business for 42 years. Now that I supposed to be retired, I'm a professional real estate investor in residential rentals, summertime RV spaces, and trust deeds. I also own a self-service laundromat. I don't care if it's considered to be Fastlane or not, since the majority of my activities create Passive Income.

Yes I could sell out and never work another day in my life. I have worked since I was 11 years old when I lost my Grandmother. I guess I don't know how to NOT work. It keeps me interested in life and learning. I get to play Monopoly with real money. Making deals is the fun part.

And as a side issue, I get to help many people around me, and I touch a lot of lives. I believe in random acts of kindness and paying forward.

I'm following in your footsteps. Great job!

I love real estate because nobody can take it away, unlike a job or stocks.

Even if a tornado would suck it up into the sky, I'd still have the land, and the payoff from insurance.
 

MTF

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I love real estate because nobody can take it away, unlike a job or stocks.

Technically the government can always take it away or greatly reduce your freedom of using or selling it. And as long as you're living in a country with property taxes (the vast majority of countries in the world) you don't even really own it.

Having said that, I do love the feeling of owning real estate and plan to invest more; I just would be more conscious of the risks associated with it. You can't move real estate to another more favorable jurisdiction when politicians pass a stupid legislation, while a company (your investment in stocks) theoretically can.
 

GMSI7D

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Yes I could sell out and never work another day in my life. I have worked since I was 11 years old when I lost my Grandmother. I guess I don't know how to NOT work. It keeps me interested in life and learning. I get to play Monopoly with real money. Making deals is the fun part.

.



this makes me sick.


so you are saying that your mission in life is working ?


you do not know what to do with yourself if you are not part of the capitalist system


you are what i call an "energy supplier of the matrix system "

let me explain

most people spend their day at the office and do not know what to do with their life once back home.

the human battery ,once used during the day doesn't know what to do with its life at home

people do their family duty and then watch TV or try to escape their free time in another absurd activity

once retired at 65 , they do not know what to do with their time

" honey, what can we do ? going to the beach ? watching TV ? "


at least 90 % of people are like that


metaphoricaly speaking , people are that :

duracell_matrix.jpg

this is true

the matrix movie is a metaphor for our world

remember this as well :


View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JI8AMRbqY6w




.

most people are on earth to supply the matrix system with their life energy and they DO NOT know what to do with their life .

--> wich means their mission above these absurd paying bills activities




here is my definition of a human : someone who might be forced to earn money in any way but has a mission , a main purpose in life, away from that matrix system.

humans are part of a global evolution : the next society, the next human potential and so on

their mission is to evolve in many ways, not to be a daily energy supplier for the actual system.
 
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Curtis Randolph

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Can you elaborate on this or is this private?

[/QUOTE]

Healthcare, to me, is probably the biggest strain on everyone, but there are already disruptions happening which a lot of people aren't seeing yet. I think these private injections (pardon the pun) of new capitalistic ideas are going to crush the national medicine doctrine we have, and bring about a much simpler system. I'm already a part of it.
.[/QUOTE]
 

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justonemore

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Can you elaborate on this or is this private?

I can't speak to what he posted, but if you watch the JRE video on page 2, it sounds like stem cell injections may cure a lot of major issues better than anything else. Imagine 1 treatment that can cure 50 major problems. If true, that's major disruption. Many thousands will be healthier, and many thousands will lose their job.
 

Supercar

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I can't speak to what he posted, but if you watch the JRE video on page 2, it sounds like stem cell injections may cure a lot of major issues better than anything else. Imagine 1 treatment that can cure 50 major problems. If true, that's major disruption. Many thousands will be healthier, and many thousands will lose their job.
No, the scientific and technical progress in the last 50-100 years alone has not shown to lower the price of healthcare. Quite the opposite. Nor is the proress likely to cause a recession. It is the OPM (other peoples money) that everyone in the industry, especially the insured patients, is so eager to spend, plus the good old hungry lawyers, that are responsible for the spiraling costs.

The basic healthcare is simple and cheap. Always been and will always be. The changes in the advanced healtcare and terminal care are unlikely to bring down the economy. Unless they invent a method to preserve human heads in glass jars, like in the Futurama, and then the lawyers claim that the afterlife in a jar is a basic human right of every American. But we are gettting off-topic here.
 

Real Deal Denver

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The basic healthcare is simple and cheap. Always been and will always be.

What? Cheap is relative. When it's half a house payment, I don't call that cheap. I know lots and lots of people that don't have it. That's a putrid giant stain on our so called great country. Even Cuba manages to care for their people. Our worthless politicians should be SO ashamed, but that's modus operandi for them!

The health industry/cartel needs a crushing blow, and I am hoping Bezos and Buffett will lead the charge. If Gates and Zuckerberg joined them, that could be the greatest boon to the country's economy in the last 50 years. The gas embargo was nothing - absolutely nothing - compared to the health care crisis.

Crush them all - they'll recover. They have the "care plan" to handle it. Too many good people don't.

Even our government couldn't handle this monster. We need business minded people to do it, and we have them. I hope they are up to taking it on.
 

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If I may pipe in from a mother's perspective, I agree wholeheartedly about the medical industrial complex. Lots of people are turning to alternative healthcare providers and concierge type practices and medical sharing programs. This is the future IMO.
 

Real Deal Denver

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If I may pipe in from a mother's perspective, I agree wholeheartedly about the medical industrial complex. Lots of people are turning to alternative healthcare providers and concierge type practices and medical sharing programs. This is the future IMO.

This is news to me. Can you provide more details?
 

MiaMills

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This is news to me. Can you provide more details?

Yes, faith based medical sharing programs are exempt from the Affordable Care Act. Concierge medical practices require a membership and monthly fee and don't deal with insurance at all. Alternative healthcare providers include naturopaths, chiropractors, acupuncture, etc. that wouldn't normally be covered by insurance anyway.
 

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