The coming recession

[OlivierMo]

BTW I highly recommend the Over My Shoulders newsletter from Mauldin Economics. It's 4.95 a month and gives you some good and quick insights on the economy
Financial Newsletters, Economic & Investment Analysis - Mauldin Economics

 

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[Mattie]

When the gov gets involved, usually scarcity happens and so prices go up



I am not denying the level of spending but the US has a social welfare state now that is almost comparable to European levels. The per capita spending in welfare is around 600 dollars a month vs 800 in France for example. Problem is: more money in the US is pissed away because US federal and local governments are highly inefficient and greedy. (Compared to French civil servant salaries, US gov salaries are super high.)

I also ran into this interesting video the other day.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIgsmm2uR8M


Social security and medicare are running out of money within 10-20 years anyways.

Can't say they didn't warn me about this in 7th grade. lol, they told us back in 1984, the Social Security would be gone for out generation.

 

[WJK]

Yes, it appears that we're at a tipping point with our economy.
The EU and Japan have spent very little on military expenses since WWII. They have redirected that money toward social programs. That is changing and they'll have re-think how they spend their money.
The US used to have a war dependent economy. Now the wars that drive the US economy are in trade, in financial issues, and in innovations.
The wildcard in all of this is China. They are going to challenge every developed nation on earth. They have pretty significant cracks in their armor, but they are neighborhood bully.
The US can no longer afford the drain of taking care of the world. We can't afford the social welfare programs we have going either. The US is going to have to make some hard decisions. The expanding economy will help, but it won't totally fix the problems.

 

[OlivierMo]

Read a story today about China starting to trade oil futures in Yuan. If the US loses its world currency status, it's game over.

 

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[OlivierMo]

Just saw on the French news that Germany was also putting some of its currency reserves in yuan.