5 Reasons Why a Recession will Come in 2023

[jetstoltz]

I've been watching the economy recently and am starting to get a little nervous about what I am seeing. I thought it might be helpful to share some of the data with the Fastlane Crew and get your input and opinion on this.

The first thing is the yield curve inversion. Normally, longer-term bonds offer higher yields than shorter-term bonds, but what we are seeing now is the opposite. The yield curve has inverted before every recession since 1955, and it is currently at its lowest level since 1981.

The second reason is the rising debt. Americans owe more than 1 trillion in credit card debt and housing debt is quite a bit above the recommended 36% (In my opinion too high) recommendation.

The third is the continued global supply chain issues are still disrupting production and distribution. While this is improving since the pandemic it still is not at a great spot.

The fourth is the Russia-Ukraine war and the geopolitical tensions involved with that.

The fifth is the collapse of SVB. This has been the largest bank failure since 2008 and could lead to more. The main reason for this collapse is because of the treasuries it was invested in. With inflation going up the treasuries were losing value extremely quickly. This failure can cause fear and uncertainty in the financial system. JP Morgan just received 70 billion in liquidity to help with the situation.

Not trying to spark fear in anyone, but in the case of a recession there is a lot of opportunity to get rich and preparation will allow you to win.

 

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[jetstoltz]

First Republic Says Fed, JPMorgan, Push Liquidity to $70 Billion not a good sign...

 

[Johnny boy]

reason 6

 

[door123]

reason 6

Thats a real good meme! wait! Is this a meme or actually ad? the graphics look memey

Financing a pizza...lolz..we'r 100% in recession, maybe even in a depression

 

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[jetstoltz]

 

[Johnny boy]

Thats a real good meme! wait! Is this a meme or actually ad? the graphics look memey

Financing a pizza...lolz..we'r 100% in recession, maybe even in a depression

Subscribe to read | Financial Times

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[ZackerySprague]

reason 6

This can’t be real, lmao.

 

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[ZackerySprague]

This can’t be real, lmao.

Dude… it’s a real thing… we now can place pizza orders through Zilch and pay 4 payments of, smh. Oh my gaaaa.

Done *throws hands up*

 

[ZackerySprague]

I’ve got mash potatoes, does anyone have beans? I’ll barter with some vegetables. Let me know haha!

 

[jetstoltz]

For those curious about the 10-year minus 2-year treasury yield curve inversion below is a graph that might help. The grey areas indicate a recession.



Source: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=11elg

 

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[JordanK]

Ireland also offering 3 payments pizza!

 

[RicardoGrande]

reason 6

IIRC that startup and a few others like it were in the SVB portfolio and now SVB is tits up after the gov seized it last week.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Reason #7...

NFTs.

 

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[Andreas Thiel]

We mostly discuss such things in the general Stock Market Discussion thread: HOT! - CHAT - Stock Market Discussion, Chat About the Latest Market Action

While SVB might have been a special case - related to cryptocurrency exposure of its customers - (unrealized losses are not that bad, as long as customers don't withdraw much money), there are some things that we should look for now.

Customers have not profited from higher yields much. That is one reason for them to move money from bank accounts directly into higher yielding bonds. That can lead to problematic realized losses for banks.

There also seems to be an issue (the main Credit Suisse issue, if I understand this correctly) with a specific investment asset type - leveraged buyouts (LBO) - which sounds a lot like the retarded shit that they did with mortgage backed securities (MBS) and credit default swaps (CDS) back then.

Without significant events, we are still in an environment where there is a lot of liquidity and earnings seem mostly okay. Due to the tightening, liquidity should start to dry up over time - but programs like the Bank Term Funding Program might stabilize things for quite a while longer.

 

[jetstoltz]

Credit Suisse, Battered Lender, Gets a Lifeline From Central Bank

It looks like Credit Sussie may be the next bank to collapse. This would be a much bigger problem than the SVB collapse, possibly causing a domino effect on other banks.

 

[ZackerySprague]

Reason #8

Crypto.

You still see people on Twitter still saying “buy the dip boys” (Tweet from a girl who represented Fashion Nova).

Crypto, NFTs, Web3.0, theirs nothing good from these technologies.

Crypto -> can’t match up to Visa and Mastercards technology and the number of transactions done per minute. Fake coins being created from open technology. Not enough “coins” to go around. Fake markets being created. It’s such a money laundry scheme. People rug pulling other peoples money.

NFTs -> their honestly just crypto coins in disguise but just pixel art.

Look up James Jani and his latest video on the subject.

 

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[heavy_industry]

Reason #9

I ran out of coffee.

 

[Kevin88660]

I've been watching the economy recently and am starting to get a little nervous about what I am seeing. I thought it might be helpful to share some of the data with the Fastlane Crew and get your input and opinion on this.

The first thing is the yield curve inversion. Normally, longer-term bonds offer higher yields than shorter-term bonds, but what we are seeing now is the opposite. The yield curve has inverted before every recession since 1955, and it is currently at its lowest level since 1981.

The second reason is the rising debt. Americans owe more than 1 trillion in credit card debt and housing debt is quite a bit above the recommended 36% (In my opinion too high) recommendation.

The third is the continued global supply chain issues are still disrupting production and distribution. While this is improving since the pandemic it still is not at a great spot.

The fourth is the Russia-Ukraine war and the geopolitical tensions involved with that.

The fifth is the collapse of SVB. This has been the largest bank failure since 2008 and could lead to more. The main reason for this collapse is because of the treasuries it was invested in. With inflation going up the treasuries were losing value extremely quickly. This failure can cause fear and uncertainty in the financial system. JP Morgan just received 70 billion in liquidity to help with the situation.

Not trying to spark fear in anyone, but in the case of a recession there is a lot of opportunity to get rich and preparation will allow you to win.

The worst crash usually comes when times are good, and no one is paying attention. Pre-2008 and Pre-2020 Feb crashes are such examples.

These banks are sacrificed because they are not too big to fail.

It looks like max pain before things turn around for the better, slowly.

It generally does not get too bad when everyone worries about a crash. Regulators are monitoring closely and extend credit if necessary. The market price is also pricing negative outcomes into it.

All it takes is China and U.S. to reach such new deals, as both need to kick-start their economy after 3 years of chaos. China starts to buy U.S. debt while U.S. resume import of Chinese goods and stop the tech/chips sanctions. Russia and Ukraine war will reach a ceasefire as both sides run out of ammunition/men. This will ease the inflation matter on the supply side greatly and reduce the pressure on Fed to keep on hiking.

In the future, we might look back at Q1 and Q2 of 2023 as blood in the street moment.

 

[thechosen1]

reason 6

Reason #7...

NFTs.

This ad should be an NFT. I'd buy it.

 

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[Fox]

Reason #10... Freelancers

 

[Bicollo]

I've been watching the economy recently and am starting to get a little nervous about what I am seeing. I thought it might be helpful to share some of the data with the Fastlane Crew and get your input and opinion on this.

The first thing is the yield curve inversion. Normally, longer-term bonds offer higher yields than shorter-term bonds, but what we are seeing now is the opposite. The yield curve has inverted before every recession since 1955, and it is currently at its lowest level since 1981.

The second reason is the rising debt. Americans owe more than 1 trillion in credit card debt and housing debt is quite a bit above the recommended 36% (In my opinion too high) recommendation.

The third is the continued global supply chain issues are still disrupting production and distribution. While this is improving since the pandemic it still is not at a great spot.

The fourth is the Russia-Ukraine war and the geopolitical tensions involved with that.

The fifth is the collapse of SVB. This has been the largest bank failure since 2008 and could lead to more. The main reason for this collapse is because of the treasuries it was invested in. With inflation going up the treasuries were losing value extremely quickly. This failure can cause fear and uncertainty in the financial system. JP Morgan just received 70 billion in liquidity to help with the situation.

Not trying to spark fear in anyone, but in the case of a recession there is a lot of opportunity to get rich and preparation will allow you to win.

Credit Suisse might also fall creating a huge domino effect

 

[Skroob]

Reason #8

Crypto.

You still see people on Twitter still saying “buy the dip boys” (Tweet from a girl who represented Fashion Nova).

Crypto, NFTs, Web3.0, theirs nothing good from these technologies.

Crypto -> can’t match up to Visa and Mastercards technology and the number of transactions done per minute. Fake coins being created from open technology. Not enough “coins” to go around. Fake markets being created. It’s such a money laundry scheme. People rug pulling other peoples money.

NFTs -> their honestly just crypto coins in disguise but just pixel art.

Look up James Jani and his latest video on the subject.

All money is fake. I don't see a fundamental difference between crypto and currency, besides who's actively manipulating it. That said, I'm sure as hell not counting on my bitcoin position to make me rich, same as I'm not counting on my Apple stock or my 401k. That's slowlaner thinking.

NFTs are dopey though. The tech concept is interesting (distributed ledger of ownership of something) but using it exclusively to shuffle monkey gifs around is a shame.

 

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[ZackerySprague]

All money is fake. I don't see a fundamental difference between crypto and currency, besides who's actively manipulating it. That said, I'm sure as hell not counting on my bitcoin position to make me rich, same as I'm not counting on my Apple stock or my 401k. That's slowlaner thinking.

NFTs are dopey though. The tech concept is interesting (distributed ledger of ownership of something) but using it exclusively to shuffle monkey gifs around is a shame.

It is true that even the USD dollar is a hyperreality and it's based on a belief system. I was expressing that until the USD dollar falls, until it's no longer the standard, I won't be using any other form of currency.

The Ledger was never going to be stable compared to the Mastercard and Visa Technology that exist today.

 

[ZackerySprague]

Reason #9

I ran out of coffee.

Did you make some more?

 

[heavy_industry]

Did you make some more?

Currently in the process of getting off caffeine.

EXECUTION - Q1 Progress

Inspired by @Spenny and @REV5028 , I decided to document my progress for Q1. To keep things very simple, I have two main goals for this quarter: 1. Max out health. 2. Finish the current stage of one of my projects. Health is very difficult to measure objectively, so I will have to use a few...

www.thefastlaneforum.com

But I looked at the remaining coffee in the cup (was not very much), and determined that global scarcity of resources is imminent.

 

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[jetstoltz]

It is true that even the USD dollar is a hyperreality and it's based on a belief system. I was expressing that until the USD dollar falls, until it's no longer the standard, I won't be using any other form of currency.

The Ledger was never going to be stable compared to the Mastercard and Visa Technology that exist today.

If the dollar falls and we have a world depression my prediction would be that the world economic forum comes together and produces a central digital currency.

This currency would be similar to China's current currency where since it is all digital they would be able to control everything. There would be no need for banks anymore since it is all managed by technology. The scariest thing is the way China currently has the "social credit score" based on where you shop and what they know about you.

Power and greed are what these guys run on, why wouldn't they do something like that? They would mask it all with some sort of "common good & we are saving the world" idea.

 

[thechosen1]

I can see Congress or whatever frankenAgency introducing a 40 year mortgage soon in the USA.

This will mean lower monthly payments but probably higher overall purchase prices and higher costs. More inflation.

Maybe they don't do that. But they are still printing lots of money to protect these banks right now.

No matter what they do, everything points towards more inflation.

 

[Timmy C]

We are already in a recession. Oh wait no we ain't, they already redefined that word some time ago as well.

Progress!

 

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