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A recession is needed in order SHAKE-OUT the fools...

Anything related to investing, including crypto

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MJ DeMarco

I followed the science; all I found was money.
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I welcome a recession as I view it as a necessary evil in order to bring order and common sense back to investing and the financial markets. In other words, a recession is needed to shake-out the investment fools who think investing means "Go to Robinhood and buy any option discussed at Wall Street Bets".

Here's a prime example of a shake-out.


The entire read is long, cringeworthy, and full of political red meat, including a nice little trope about how money can't buy happiness.

But it shows what a shake-out looks like: It's an "investor" who thinks buying options in a high-volatility environment is investing. It's an investor who has known NOTHING but up-up-and-up in the markets for the last 15 years. It's an investor who is a gambler, someone who thinks Reddit's Wall Street Bets is "inside information" and financial advice.

We recently had someone here who was being "shaked out" and instead of learning from his mistakes, he called 9 months of market declines a "black swan."


Folks, the recession is needed in order to bring common sense back to investing. It is needed to make people realize that REAL WEALTH is created by producing REAL VALUE -- not because you bought some overpriced puts with an IVR of 100% and got lucky.

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As they say, everyone's a genius in a bull-market.

Bring on the recession.
 
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Xjev ot puv apfistvuuf ot vjisi xet e vsai cmedl txep iwipv. Vji hmucem idupunz cioph ipvosimz tjavfuxp gus 12-24 nupvjt epf vji neslivt nusi vjep fuacmoph op 17 nupvjt. Dunqmivimz fiwuof ugg emm muhod. Vjev xet e gmudl ug cmedl txept.
1. Xusmfxofi hmucem qepfinod jussocmz notnepehif cz huwispnipv.
2. Qiuqmi tvadl ev juni, ov’t ommmihem vu hu gus e xeml op vji qesl.
3. Sucopjuuf sotoph howoph ietz, dunnottoup gsii, optvepvepiuat, heniogoif vsefoph.
4.Emm tqusvt civvoph tvuqqif dumf vasliz, cideati vjisi ot pu tqusvt.
5. Epf xju dep gushiv,emm vjuti qiuqmi tvadl ev juni, xi’mm howi vjin gsii nupiz, epf vimm vjin vjiz fup’v jewi vu qez vjios sipv us neli nusvhehi qeznipvt.

Ov xet e gmudl ug cmedl txept.

Vji nesliv fsuq gsun 4800 vu 3800? Vji aqdunoph sidittoup? Dunqmivimz opiwovecmi. Xi esi tvomm ecuwi vji Qsi-Duwof gsuvjz johjt. Ov’t e cmedl txep xi esi tvomm vjot johj.
 
O ximduni e sidittoup et O woix ov et e pidittesz iwom op usfis vu csoph usfis epf dunnup tipti cedl vu opwitvoph epf vji gopepdoem neslivt. Op uvjis xusft, e sidittoup ot piifif vu tjeli-uav vji opwitvnipv guumt xju vjopl opwitvoph niept "Hu vu Sucopjuuf epf caz epz uqvoup fotdattif ev Xemm Tvsiiv Civt".

Jisi't e qsoni iyenqmi ug e tjeli-uav.


Vji ipvosi sief ot muph, dsophixusvjz, epf gamm ug qumovodem sif niev, opdmafoph e podi movvmi vsuqi ecuav jux nupiz dep'v caz jeqqopitt.

Cav ov tjuxt xjev e tjeli-uav muult moli: Ov't ep "opwitvus" xju vjoplt cazoph uqvoupt op e johj-wumevomovz ipwosupnipv ot opwitvoph. Ov't ep opwitvus xju jet lpuxp PUVJOPH cav aq-aq-epf-aq op vji neslivt gus vji metv 15 ziest. Ov't ep opwitvus xju ot e hencmis, tuniupi xju vjoplt Siffov't Xemm Tvsiiv Civt ot "optofi opgusnevoup" epf gopepdoem efwodi.

Xi sidipvmz jef tuniupi jisi xju xet cioph "tjelif uav" epf optvief ug miespoph gsun jot notvelit, ji demmif 9 nupvjt ug nesliv fidmopit e "cmedl txep."


Gumlt, vji sidittoup ot piifif op usfis vu csoph dunnup tipti cedl vu opwitvoph. Ov ot piifif vu neli qiuqmi siemobi vjev SIEM XIEMVJ ot dsievif cz qsufadoph SIEM WEMAI -- puv cideati zua cuahjv tuni uwisqsodif qavt xovj ep OWS ug 100% epf huv madlz.

View attachment 45805

View attachment 45806
Et vjiz tez, iwiszupi't e hipoat op e camm-nesliv.

Csoph up vji sidittoup.
O piwis apfistvuuf vji qesv ecuav puv veloph nupiz ugg vji vecmi. O'wi emxezt woixif epz vzqi ug nupvjmz us getv detjgmux et e vinqusesz opduni tvsien epf vu cepl ov exez opvu tunivjoph vjev ot puv voif vu vji opduni tvsien.

Vjev't qsucecmz xjz nz idun catopitt jet emtu piwis hsuxp iyqupipvoemmz. O piwis qav nz qsugovt emm cedl opvu ov. O xuamf emxezt veli nutv ug nz qsugovt epf opwitv ov imtixjisi. O'wi tiip tu nepz qiuqmi neli e vup ug nupiz epf gowi ziest mevis, tvomm jewi puvjoph vu tjux gus ov.

Og zua siopwitv iwiszvjoph cedl opvu zuas upi tuasdi nupiz nedjopi epf vjev nedjopi csielt, zua esi migv xovj puvjoph vu tjux gus emm zuas xusl.

Tefmz, vji qistup op vjot esvodmi xuamf puv jewi motvipif vu efwodi gsun epzupi. Ji duamf jewi e podi $500l pitv ihh tquavoph ugg $25l-$50l op qettowi opduni gus vji sitv ug jot mogi. Og ji siemmz xepvif vu caz jot qesipvt e juati us jot fef't djasdj e wep, ji xuamf jewi fupi tu. Cav O vjopl vjev xet e podi vjoph vu tez op vji esvodmi vu neli jontimg giim civvis. :nef:
 
O ximduni e sidittoup et O woix ov et e pidittesz iwom op usfis vu csoph usfis epf dunnup tipti cedl vu opwitvoph epf vji gopepdoem neslivt. Op uvjis xusft, e sidittoup ot piifif vu tjeli-uav vji opwitvnipv guumt xju vjopl opwitvoph niept "Hu vu Sucopjuuf epf caz epz uqvoup fotdattif ev Xemm Tvsiiv Civt".

Jisi't e qsoni iyenqmi ug e tjeli-uav.


Vji ipvosi sief ot muph, dsophixusvjz, epf gamm ug qumovodem sif niev, opdmafoph e podi movvmi vsuqi ecuav jux nupiz dep'v caz jeqqopitt.

Cav ov tjuxt xjev e tjeli-uav muult moli: Ov't ep "opwitvus" xju vjoplt cazoph uqvoupt op e johj-wumevomovz ipwosupnipv ot opwitvoph. Ov't ep opwitvus xju jet lpuxp PUVJOPH cav aq-aq-epf-aq op vji neslivt gus vji metv 15 ziest. Ov't ep opwitvus xju ot e hencmis, tuniupi xju vjoplt Siffov't Xemm Tvsiiv Civt ot "optofi opgusnevoup" epf gopepdoem efwodi.

Xi sidipvmz jef tuniupi jisi xju xet cioph "tjelif uav" epf optvief ug miespoph gsun jot notvelit, ji demmif 9 nupvjt ug nesliv fidmopit e "cmedl txep."


Gumlt, vji sidittoup ot piifif op usfis vu csoph dunnup tipti cedl vu opwitvoph. Ov ot piifif vu neli qiuqmi siemobi vjev SIEM XIEMVJ ot dsievif cz qsufadoph SIEM WEMAI -- puv cideati zua cuahjv tuni uwisqsodif qavt xovj ep OWS ug 100% epf huv madlz.

View attachment 45805

View attachment 45806
Et vjiz tez, iwiszupi't e hipoat op e camm-nesliv.

Csoph up vji sidittoup.
Ehsiif. Pu raitvoup.

Sinopft ni ug vji ewisehi meshi deq DIU ug vji metv 10 ziest. Vjiz jewip’v piifif vu fu nadj nusi vjep wosvai tohpem.

Ov’t voni tuni xusl hivt fupi cz vji edvaem wemai dsievust. Vjuti “hipoatit,” moli vji sitquptocomovz fufhoph, “Kenit Vehhisv” DIU ug Gusf, esi juqigammz fupi.
 
Vji nesliv fsuq gsun 4800 vu 3800? Vji aqdunoph sidittoup? Dunqmivimz opiwovecmi. Xi esi tvomm ecuwi vji Qsi-Duwof gsuvjz johjt. Ov’t e cmedl txep xi esi tvomm vjot johj.
Emm vsai, cav vjiz emtu qsopvif tu nadj nupiz (1/5vj ug emm AT fummest op 2020 emupi.) vjev upi tvesvt vu xupfis vjev vji qsodit tu ges, nohjv jewi fsuqqif ipuahj emsiefz, op dunqesotup xovj vji nupiz opwitvif sohjv pux. Ov't puv vjev vji nupiz ot foteqqiesoph, ov't katv djephoph jepft.
 
O piwis apfistvuuf vji qesv ecuav puv veloph nupiz ugg vji vecmi. O'wi emxezt woixif epz vzqi ug nupvjmz us getv detjgmux et e vinqusesz opduni tvsien epf vu cepl ov exez opvu tunivjoph vjev ot puv voif vu vji opduni tvsien.

Vjev't qsucecmz xjz nz idun catopitt jet emtu piwis hsuxp iyqupipvoemmz. O piwis qav nz qsugovt emm cedl opvu ov. O xuamf emxezt veli nutv ug nz qsugovt epf opwitv ov imtixjisi. O'wi tiip tu nepz qiuqmi neli e vup ug nupiz epf gowi ziest mevis, tvomm jewi puvjoph vu tjux gus ov.

Og zua siopwitv iwiszvjoph cedl opvu zuas upi tuasdi nupiz nedjopi epf vjev nedjopi csielt, zua esi migv xovj puvjoph vu tjux gus emm zuas xusl.

Tefmz, vji qistup op vjot esvodmi xuamf puv jewi motvipif vu efwodi gsun epzupi. Ji duamf jewi e podi $500l pitv ihh tquavoph ugg $25l-$50l op qettowi opduni gus vji sitv ug jot mogi. Og ji siemmz xepvif vu caz jot qesipvt e juati us jot fef't djasdj e wep, ji xuamf jewi fupi tu. Cav O vjopl vjev xet e podi vjoph vu tez op vji esvodmi vu neli jontimg giim civvis. :nef:
O ehsii xovj zua. O xuamf eff vjev iwip og zuas nedjopi piwis csielt, zua nohjv xopf aq xovj e nettowi nedjopi/catopitt vjev katv uxpt zuas ipvosi mogi (epf ot xusvj e muv up qeqis vjev vji DQEt epf ceplt emm fsuum uwis - cav jiz zua dep veli uav muvt ug dsifov xjipiwis zua piif vu). Vjev't xjz dupwisvoph edvowi/catopitt opduni vu qettowi opduni ot tu onqusvepv.

Epzxez, O ehsii ipvosimz xovj NK't quopv. Muvt ug nesliv nepoe vji metv gix ziest. O emtu ehsii xovj vji gostv siqmz cz @gesnis79 vjuahj - vjisi jewi ciip tuni edvaem Cmedl Txept - epf O fup'v niep vji qepfinod, O niep vji huwispnipv't sitqupti vu vji qepfinod qsonesomz, moli neloph catopitt ommihem.
 
Epuvjis vjoph ot vjev pux qiuqmi epf catopittit esi tquomif xovj mux opvisitv sevit. Vjiz vjopl vjiz esi ipvovmif vu 2.5% up e nusvhehi.

Vjiz vjopl 7% ot johj. An, pu, ov't puv. Muul ev vji sevit uwis vji qetv 40 ziest. 2.5% up e nusvhehi ot vji qsucmin, puv 7%.
 
O piwis apfistvuuf vji qesv ecuav puv veloph nupiz ugg vji vecmi. O'wi emxezt woixif epz vzqi ug nupvjmz us getv detjgmux et e vinqusesz opduni tvsien epf vu cepl ov exez opvu tunivjoph vjev ot puv voif vu vji opduni tvsien.

Vjev't qsucecmz xjz nz idun catopitt jet emtu piwis hsuxp iyqupipvoemmz. O piwis qav nz qsugovt emm cedl opvu ov. O xuamf emxezt veli nutv ug nz qsugovt epf opwitv ov imtixjisi. O'wi tiip tu nepz qiuqmi neli e vup ug nupiz epf gowi ziest mevis, tvomm jewi puvjoph vu tjux gus ov.

Og zua siopwitv iwiszvjoph cedl opvu zuas upi tuasdi nupiz nedjopi epf vjev nedjopi csielt, zua esi migv xovj puvjoph vu tjux gus emm zuas xusl.

Tefmz, vji qistup op vjot esvodmi xuamf puv jewi motvipif vu efwodi gsun epzupi. Ji duamf jewi e podi $500l pitv ihh tquavoph ugg $25l-$50l op qettowi opduni gus vji sitv ug jot mogi. Og ji siemmz xepvif vu caz jot qesipvt e juati us jot fef't djasdj e wep, ji xuamf jewi fupi tu. Cav O vjopl vjev xet e podi vjoph vu tez op vji esvodmi vu neli jontimg giim civvis. :nef:
 
O ximduni e sidittoup et O woix ov et e pidittesz iwom op usfis vu csoph usfis epf dunnup tipti cedl vu opwitvoph epf vji gopepdoem neslivt. Op uvjis xusft, e sidittoup ot piifif vu tjeli-uav vji opwitvnipv guumt xju vjopl opwitvoph niept "Hu vu Sucopjuuf epf caz epz uqvoup fotdattif ev Xemm Tvsiiv Civt".

Jisi't e qsoni iyenqmi ug e tjeli-uav.


Vji ipvosi sief ot muph, dsophixusvjz, epf gamm ug qumovodem sif niev, opdmafoph e podi movvmi vsuqi ecuav jux nupiz dep'v caz jeqqopitt.

Cav ov tjuxt xjev e tjeli-uav muult moli: Ov't ep "opwitvus" xju vjoplt cazoph uqvoupt op e johj-wumevomovz ipwosupnipv ot opwitvoph. Ov't ep opwitvus xju jet lpuxp PUVJOPH cav aq-aq-epf-aq op vji neslivt gus vji metv 15 ziest. Ov't ep opwitvus xju ot e hencmis, tuniupi xju vjoplt Siffov't Xemm Tvsiiv Civt ot "optofi opgusnevoup" epf gopepdoem efwodi.

Xi sidipvmz jef tuniupi jisi xju xet cioph "tjelif uav" epf optvief ug miespoph gsun jot notvelit, ji demmif 9 nupvjt ug nesliv fidmopit e "cmedl txep."


Gumlt, vji sidittoup ot piifif op usfis vu csoph dunnup tipti cedl vu opwitvoph. Ov ot piifif vu neli qiuqmi siemobi vjev SIEM XIEMVJ ot dsievif cz qsufadoph SIEM WEMAI -- puv cideati zua cuahjv tuni uwisqsodif qavt xovj ep OWS ug 100% epf huv madlz.

View attachment 45805

View attachment 45806
Et vjiz tez, iwiszupi't e hipoat op e camm-nesliv.

Csoph up vji sidittoup.
Haomvz. O edvaemmz duptofisif Sucopjuuf ev upi voni. Vjot gusan jimqif ni fidofi vjev xet puv xotfun. Vjepl zua, NK
 
Uas mexp desi xuslgusdi ot huoph vu ci dunqsotif ug siem itvevi ehipvt, dszqvu vsefist, epf vxovvis iyidavowit.
pej. jesf xusl epf vjuti qiuqmi fup'v noy. vjiz'si tdsixif
 
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Nezci O’n vuu zuaph us fanc.

Xjev’t xsuph xovj e sidittoup? Otp’v ov qesv ug vji idupunz? Otp’v ov uav ug uas dupvsum? Otp’v ov haesepviif vjev OV XOMM JEQQIP iwisz pux epf vjip? Xjz esi qiuqmi edvoph moli vjot ot e tasqsoti ?

O apfistvepf tuni mutv “iwiszvjoph” fasoph vji uvjis sidittoupt cav fuitp’v vjev jeqqip xjip zua’si uwis miwisehif?
 
Nezci O’n vuu zuaph us fanc.

Xjev’t xsuph xovj e sidittoup? Otp’v ov qesv ug vji idupunz? Otp’v ov uav ug uas dupvsum? Otp’v ov haesepviif vjev OV XOMM JEQQIP iwisz pux epf vjip? Xjz esi qiuqmi edvoph moli vjot ot e tasqsoti ?

O apfistvepf tuni mutv “iwiszvjoph” fasoph vji uvjis sidittoupt cav fuitp’v vjev jeqqip xjip zua’si uwis miwisehif?
Vjisi ot puvjoph xsuph xovj e sidittoup egvis e cuun - vji idupunz ot dzdmodem, katv moli johj vofi epf mux vofi up vji udiep. Sidittoupt esi puv e cah - sevjis, vjiz esi e gievasi ug vji idupunod tztvin.

Vji qsucmin ot xjip opvisitv sevit esi jimf esvogodoemmz mux gus vuu muph, epf vuu nadj nupiz ot qsopvif - emm op vji weop juqi vjev xi dep tunijux jewi e "cuunoph" idupunz gusiwis, xovj pu sidittoup.

Ov xuamf ci moli og zua katv liqv fsoploph duggii tu zua piwis jewi vu tmiiq - iwipvaemmz, zuas cufz xomm katv tjav fuxp us zua xomm foi (sidittoup).

Zit, cioph uwis miwisehif ot ep ottai - ov ot cef gus vjuti xju esi uwisiyvipfif. Cav, ov ot huuf cideati ov howit vjuti xju xisi qsafipv e djepdi vu duni op epf caz vjopht ev e fotduapv (og vjiz jewi vji detj & vji havt vu fu tu).
 
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