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Random Chat, Thoughts, Posts, and/or Rants Thread

MJ DeMarco

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I've been trying to get a hold of my tree guy for a couple weeks to take down a big ash that is dying at a rental property. Yesterday I found out he's in jail awaiting trial for murdering his neighbor last month. Oops

Reminds me of a similar story... years ago the owner of a limousine company went on a shooting spree at LAX. It was labeled terrorism and was pretty big news. Did a search on my client records and sure enough, he was a paying customer in my biz.

What was the first thing in your life you saved up money to buy?

LOL, I actually remember this. A Precision Power 500 Watt Car Amplifier... BOOM, BOOM....
 
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splok

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Does anyone have any resources/suggestions/examples how people reinvent themselves in business or in personal life?

I've been working on the same business for years (self-publishing and writing in general). I'm stuck, bored, and burned out and may need a complete pivot. I'm not sure how to escape from this trap, though. I've invested so much of my life and identity into it that it's hard to let go.

I'm not even sure if I should actually do it, even though it's been already over a year of consistent self-doubt, frustration, and no longer believing that my skills are valuable.

I'd appreciate any suggestions.
From reading your posts in the various threads here, it sounds like you've been fretting over this for quite a while. I think that you're overcomplicating things and getting in your own way. Imo, the best way to change directions is to pick a project, something that's hard, that you don't know how to do, and then do it. Build an app, a saas, a house, whatever. You have the time to learn what you need to learn. Just pick something that feels like it will be worthwhile once it's done and then figure out how to make it happen.
 

ljean

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What was the first thing in your life you saved up money to buy?
A 1988 Ford Mustang when I was 15. It cost $1600 but my dad paid for half and I spent the rest of my savings on a Pioneer CD player, amp, & sub from Crutchfield. I was washing dishes in a restaurant for $5/hr or so at that time.
 
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Mathuin

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Andy Black

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Does anyone have any resources/suggestions/examples how people reinvent themselves in business or in personal life?

I've been working on the same business for years (self-publishing and writing in general). I'm stuck, bored, and burned out and may need a complete pivot. I'm not sure how to escape from this trap, though. I've invested so much of my life and identity into it that it's hard to let go.

I'm not even sure if I should actually do it, even though it's been already over a year of consistent self-doubt, frustration, and no longer believing that my skills are valuable.

I'd appreciate any suggestions.
@MTF ... I've not read any books on this, but would be happy to just have a chat. I've no idea if it might help to chat with me, but the offer is there.

Also... look at the likes of @Lex DeVille and @Fox who are constantly charging off doing different things or doing things differently. I'm always amazed in particular at all the different things Lex does, and how neither (seem) to have any fear of dropping something. Rob has a free Facebook group of 10k but decided his time and mental health were more important and dropped it.

I presonally am just fascinated by loads of things, and charge off creating "Figuring Out XYZ" progress threads - till I'm bored and "drop them like a hot snot" as they say here in Ireland.
 

Antifragile

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WHAT THE F***.

People voted to confiscate LEGALLY-ACQUIRED real estate just because the rents are too high? How can this even happen in a "civilized" country? What a way to discourage investors from investing in Germany.

I read “expropriation” not “confiscation”. The two are different.
Not condoning this (if it is in fact real news), just pointing out a huge difference. Expropriation can be at market and above market $$ values.

Regulation over rents isn’t new. It’s as old as regulation can be. This is just another “solution” while the government is missing the obvious. Supply and demand folks, supply and demand. Let developers build and there won’t be any problems with rental rates.

I could go on for a long time … but I won’t.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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I read “expropriation” not “confiscation”. The two are different.
Not condoning this (if it is in fact real news), just pointing out a huge difference. Expropriation can be at market and above market $$ values.

Regulation over rents isn’t new. It’s as old as regulation can be. This is just another “solution” while the government is missing the obvious. Supply and demand folks, supply and demand. Let developers build and there won’t be any problems with rental rates.

I could go on for a long time … but I won’t.
This is why we can't have nice things! And by that, I mean, why we end up with massive housing shortages, huge home prices and high rents, when we could instead let developers build.
 

MTF

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Just pick something that feels like it will be worthwhile once it's done and then figure out how to make it happen.

That's the problem—how do you pick it? Also, I've lost most of my confidence after repeatedly failing with every single project for the past 2-3 years. While it looks simple to just start building something new, it's not that easy if you automatically expect that it'll be another failed project.
 

ElleMg

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That's not true OnlyFans is legitimate according to supply & demand you're just required to have the "goods".
Nah, labour theory of value says something's value can be measured objectively based on the number of labour hours necessary to produce it.

OnlyFans is a great demonstration that this isn't true, value is based on what consumers are willing to pay.
 
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ElleMg

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it's not that easy if you automatically expect that it'll be another failed project.
There you go, you already have the answers
 

MTF

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There you go, you already have the answers

Lose low five figures on every project you launched in the last couple of years and tell me how easy it is not to expect the same thing again :smile:

I'm aware it's a mental block but it doesn't change the problem much. After a while you start thinking that it's best to put things on autopilot and save as much as you can. If not for all these failed projects, I'd be well ahead financially.
 

Andy Black

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Lose low five figures on every project you launched in the last couple of years and tell me how easy it is not to expect the same thing again :smile:

I'm aware it's a mental block but it doesn't change the problem much. After a while you start thinking that it's best to put things on autopilot and save as much as you can. If not for all these failed projects, I'd be well ahead financially.
I’d say it’s helping you find out what *not* to do. Keep swinging that bat MTF.
 
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Tony100

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What are your thoughts on the proposed increases of minimum wage?

In the UK, Labour party members have voted in favour of a £15 ($20.26) per hour minimum wage. This would be a 68% increase from £8.91 p/h for people age 23 and above, with a similar increase for younger age groups.

The Labour leader is refusing to confirm what the party's official min wage policy will be until just before the next election. However there is a lot of pressure for this increase from other Labour MP's, members and their biggest donor.

The current government (Conservatives) are increasing minimum wage to £10.50 p/h by 2024. But I know significant rises in minimum wage are being talked about in other countries too.

Politics aside, what do you think the effect of a 68% increase in minimum wage would have on a countries economy? If you increase wages without increasing productivity/value added, will it simply lead to inflation with everyone worse off? If your businesses wage bill rose by that amount (with cost increases from suppliers too), what would the effect on your business be/what would your strategy be?
 

Madame Peccato

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Politics aside, what do you think the effect of a 68% increase in minimum wage would have on a countries economy? If you increase wages without increasing productivity/value added, will it simply lead to inflation with everyone worse off?

Workers that can't produce enough to be worth the new wage will be fired.

Most businesses will have to raise prices or severely downsize their workforce. Most likely both. This means that yes, minimum wage workers who make the cut will, in fact, earn more. But they'll spend it all on the higher prices of products they consume.

The youngsters who want to get a job to save some money for college or whatever can wave goodbye to their dreams. Who's going to hire you for $15/hour right out of high school?

Finding a job with 0 experience will be almost impossible.

Unemployment will rise. More unemployed people means more government intervention, and more people depending from gov handouts.

TLDR: higher minimum wage -> higher unemployment -> expansion of welfare policies -> more money printing -> (eventually) turn into Zimbabwe/Weimar Germany/Venezuela (pick whichever one you likes the most). Ask @Kak how much he likes his one trillion dollars note.

And anyway, why $15/hour? If minimum wage is so good at killing poverty (it isn't), then why not make it $30? $100?

Further readings on this subject by people who understand economic better than me:

 

ElleMg

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What are your thoughts on the proposed increases of minimum wage?

In the UK, Labour party members have voted in favour of a £15 ($20.26) per hour minimum wage. This would be a 68% increase from £8.91 p/h for people age 23 and above, with a similar increase for younger age groups.

The Labour leader is refusing to confirm what the party's official min wage policy will be until just before the next election. However there is a lot of pressure for this increase from other Labour MP's, members and their biggest donor.

The current government (Conservatives) are increasing minimum wage to £10.50 p/h by 2024. But I know significant rises in minimum wage are being talked about in other countries too.

Politics aside, what do you think the effect of a 68% increase in minimum wage would have on a countries economy? If you increase wages without increasing productivity/value added, will it simply lead to inflation with everyone worse off? If your businesses wage bill rose by that amount (with cost increases from suppliers too), what would the effect on your business be/what would your strategy be?
Makes sense in a society ruled by automation where less workers are needed. Maybe 2030-2035? By which point it definitely wouldn't be a 68% increase.

In my opinion they don't believe this is a good policy and are desperate trying to hold onto their rapidly depleting working class support. Hope the working people realise neither major party care about them and vote reform or a regional/independent party over this decade.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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Makes sense in a society ruled by automation where less workers are needed. Maybe 2030-2035? By which point it definitely wouldn't be a 68% increase.

In my opinion they don't believe this is a good policy and are desperate trying to hold onto their rapidly depleting working class support. Hope the working people realise neither major party care about them and vote reform or a regional/independent party over this decade.
Some things can be automated, but many things can't.

Everyone sees the world from their unique perspective; most people on this forum do not work somewhere that people work with their hands, build things, or even set up and use the machinery that automates tasks - just maintaining, repairing, and running the machines can be a hefty task.

No, automation won't steal all of the jobs, it will just change them, and make the output far greater.

People said the same about the industrial revolution, but instead, workers moved to higher-output tasks (and I don't just mean the high IQ workers, I mean all workers down to the bottom). This trend has continued for over a hundred years, and will continue.
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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A skilled capital allocator will find the best use of manpower and technology.

Look at Bezos; Amazon is a tremendously advanced company but they still employ 1.3 million people.

Try automating all those jobs away. Even if you could, they would find new tasks for those people.

Just a few years ago they only employed 800,000.
 

splok

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That's the problem—how do you pick it? Also, I've lost most of my confidence after repeatedly failing with every single project for the past 2-3 years. While it looks simple to just start building something new, it's not that easy if you automatically expect that it'll be another failed project.
Well, it is simple, but that doesn't mean easy. Take a few days and think about things you wish someone else would build, things you wish existed but don't.

You're defining failure based on financial results, which makes sense for a business of course, but it sounds like you need to get out of a rut more than you need a business. If you pick something completely new and start down that path with the goal of learning/improving yourself, you don't need it to be a business yet, so the failure condition should be different. Besides, until you learn what you will learn by building it, you're probably not in a great position to make business decisions about it anyway. If you are, then maybe it isn't different enough.

No problem if you don't want to lose money on it, just decide from the start not to spend money on it, or at least cap the spend at a trivial amount. That might limit the scope of course. You're probably not building a house with zero money, but you can build software without spending anything. (Although you could get around that by having raising money as part of the project.)
 
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MJ DeMarco

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That's the problem—how do you pick it? Also, I've lost most of my confidence after repeatedly failing with every single project for the past 2-3 years. While it looks simple to just start building something new, it's not that easy if you automatically expect that it'll be another failed project.

If you could snap your fingers and get the exact life you wanted, how would it look?

Reverse engineer from there. 1/5/10 plan, or 1/3/5, or 1/4/8 ... doesn't really matter the time frames.
 

ElleMg

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Some things can be automated, but many things can't.

Everyone sees the world from their unique perspective; most people on this forum do not work somewhere that people work with their hands, build things, or even set up and use the machinery that automates tasks - just maintaining, repairing, and running the machines can be a hefty task.

No, automation won't steal all of the jobs, it will just change them, and make the output far greater.

People said the same about the industrial revolution, but instead, workers moved to higher-output tasks (and I don't just mean the high IQ workers, I mean all workers down to the bottom). This trend has continued for over a hundred years, and will continue.

I understand what you're saying from a historical and theoretical point, it just feels like the balance will be too tipped in the favour of using machines when I think of how industries like food service hire hundreds of millions people. If three machines can do the work of 12 McDonald's workers, with 4x efficiency, they're still limited by demand and practicality e.g. people have to come and make an order. Even if they require 2 humans for every machine that's still halved the workforce.

That said I do agree work will be more valuable and that's an exciting thought.
 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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I understand what you're saying from a historical and theoretical point, it just feels like the balance will be too tipped in the favour of using machines when I think of how industries like food service hire hundreds of millions people. If three machines can do the work of 12 McDonald's workers, with 4x efficiency, they're still limited by demand and practicality e.g. people have to come and make an order. Even if they require 2 humans for every machine that's still halved the workforce.

That said I do agree work will be more valuable and that's an exciting thought.
You're right, this is true. People will be displaced by those machines and have to find something else to do, and a lot of people won't have the ability to learn those new things

The fast food kiosks are a great example. So are the self-checkout registers in stores.

There are new opportunities but the gaps are always painful...
 
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Antifragile

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The unexpected benefit of taking cold showers is that mirrors are never fogged up.
 

DoingDeals

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Nah, labour theory of value says something's value can be measured objectively based on the number of labour hours necessary to produce it.

OnlyFans is a great demonstration that this isn't true, value is based on what consumers are willing to pay.
There's a police officer that turned into an OnlyFans model, recently.

“Usually I work 14-16 hours a day, and even if I’m on holiday I’ll do between four and six hours to make sure there is always new content up," she explained.

I was also making a joke about having the right "commodities".
 

Tony100

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Workers that can't produce enough to be worth the new wage will be fired.

Most businesses will have to raise prices or severely downsize their workforce. Most likely both. This means that yes, minimum wage workers who make the cut will, in fact, earn more. But they'll spend it all on the higher prices of products they consume.

The youngsters who want to get a job to save some money for college or whatever can wave goodbye to their dreams. Who's going to hire you for $15/hour right out of high school?

Finding a job with 0 experience will be almost impossible.

Unemployment will rise. More unemployed people means more government intervention, and more people depending from gov handouts.

TLDR: higher minimum wage -> higher unemployment -> expansion of welfare policies -> more money printing -> (eventually) turn into Zimbabwe/Weimar Germany/Venezuela (pick whichever one you likes the most). Ask @Kak how much he likes his one trillion dollars note.

And anyway, why $15/hour? If minimum wage is so good at killing poverty (it isn't), then why not make it $30? $100?

Further readings on this subject by people who understand economic better than me:

Proposing a £15 minimum wage seems to be based more on feelings rather than thinking. It could hurt the very people it is designed to help. Instead they should train people with new skills and education so they can add more value to society. Then they can earn a higher wage as they contribute more.
 

Tony100

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I understand what you're saying from a historical and theoretical point, it just feels like the balance will be too tipped in the favour of using machines when I think of how industries like food service hire hundreds of millions people. If three machines can do the work of 12 McDonald's workers, with 4x efficiency, they're still limited by demand and practicality e.g. people have to come and make an order. Even if they require 2 humans for every machine that's still halved the workforce.

That said I do agree work will be more valuable and that's an exciting thought.
Yes, if wages are going to increase by 67% then machines will be more attractive. If wages are £8.91 per hour and a machine works out at £14.00 per hour then a company will employ labour. If wages increase to £15.00 per hour and a machine is £14.00 per hour then a company will use the machine instead.

However, the company (and country) becomes less efficient because the most productive scenario was employing labour at £8.91 per hour. So now the company fires the labour but still has to raise prices. Lose lose.

Everyone sees the world from their unique perspective; most people on this forum do not work somewhere that people work with their hands, build things, or even set up and use the machinery that automates tasks - just maintaining, repairing, and running the machines can be a hefty task.
Technology does this too. Bookkeepers replaced by accounting software, sales assistants replaced by lead management software.

I agree with you that this is usually not a bad thing in the big picture. But if you increase the minimum wage by 67% it would make companies use technology/machines that are less efficient than labour was at the original wage.

There's also a bigger risk of jobs moving overseas, particularly anything that can be done remotely. At $20 an hour why would you have a call centre in the UK/US? You could move it to India where the wages are much cheaper with fewer employment laws. Or you could remove the jobs altogether and just have some crap frequently asked questions page on your website or slow email replies. Essentially the whole country becomes less competitive and less attractive for investment.
 

Kak

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Some things can be automated, but many things can't.

Everyone sees the world from their unique perspective; most people on this forum do not work somewhere that people work with their hands, build things, or even set up and use the machinery that automates tasks - just maintaining, repairing, and running the machines can be a hefty task.

No, automation won't steal all of the jobs, it will just change them, and make the output far greater.

People said the same about the industrial revolution, but instead, workers moved to higher-output tasks (and I don't just mean the high IQ workers, I mean all workers down to the bottom). This trend has continued for over a hundred years, and will continue.
They always say “this time it’s different.” It never is.

When human productivity goes up, so does the collective standard of living.

When big earth moving machines replaced 50 workers… They probably said there will be people out on the street…

When cars came about, I’m sure horse breeding went to crap too.

They say it now about AI.

On a microeconomic level, sure, if you are 26 years old and currently a truck driver, you probably made a bad decision.

On a macroeconomic level, when that 26 year old is 54, he will likely be doing something far more valuable than driving a truck. Why? Because with the assistance of AI, he can complete way more with his life than turn a steering wheel.

Here’s the deal… Let’s say AI replaces half of the US workforce in THEIR CURRENT ROLES. What are they working for? AI has no needs. AI has no desires. AI has no goals for betterment. My point is the production, all the production, preformed by AI, will be to serve human demand.

So why are humans demanding things? The answer is that they can afford it and desire it. Without the ability to afford something the demand won’t exist and therefore the supplyability of AIwon’t matter. It would be pointless to supply something without a demand.

So the point is, AI will explode human productivity, humans will get more done than ever before and because of that standards of living will be incredibly high due to the advancement.

The people who think AI will ruin our lives are ignoring the demand side of the supply and demand curve.
 
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Guest-5ty5s4

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buying timberland to "transition to a low carbon economy" really means jacking up the prices for wood and controlling the supply like a cartel.

 
G

Guest-5ty5s4

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Big companies and their bureaucracy are so terrible.

Dealing with large customers that you've done biz with for years, it's still impossible to get ahold of a real person sometimes.
 

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