Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order by Ray Dalio

[Fox]

I'd love to see some discussion on this video.

 

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[mdot]

Thanks for sharing. The video moved this book up my Audible wishlist haha.

Given that the cycle is described partly in terms of a country's financial strength and implemented systems, one thing I wonder about is how crypto will affect this repetitive cycle in the future. Never before has there been a currency and economic system that effectively sidesteps national systems (at least to the extent that it is tolerated by each country).

 

[Andy Black]

That’s on my Audible wishlist but is hours long. Thanks for sharing. I’ll put it in my calendar to watch one evening.

 

[p0stscript]

Not watched the full video yet but have just started reading the book and what struck me was how he pointed out that when the Dutch Empire gave way to the British Empire and when the British Empire gave way to the US Empire, most or all of the following things happened:

Debt restructuring and debt crisis
Internal revolution (peaceful or violent) that leads to large transfers of wealth from the “haves” to the “have-nots”
External war
Big currency breakdown
New domestic and world order

and I'm mentally ticking them off wondering if we are on the cusp of the next change. Will comment further after I've watched the video, thanks for posting.

 

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[Mammoth]

I think that the Russians trading oil in Yuan and the Saudis now talking with Beijing about moving toward a petroyuan is very significant in regards to the Big Cycle we are in. We are truly living in historic times week after week here.

Is it really possible to reverse trajectory? Has any empire done it before?
Based on the actions of the US empire lately, I don't see it happening.

Should we all starting learning some Mandarin?

 

[Guyfieri5]

Should we all starting learning some Mandarin?

Probably not a bad idea lol.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

I think that the Russians trading oil in Yuan and the Saudis now talking with Beijing about moving toward a petroyuan is very significant in regards to the Big Cycle we are in. We are truly living in historic times week after week here.

Is it really possible to reverse trajectory? Has any empire done it before?
Based on the actions of the US empire lately, I don't see it happening.

Should we all starting learning some Mandarin?

Yes, it could have been reversed, but our "leaders" really suck, and they have failed over and over and it might be too late now.

 

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[Andy Black]

Just finished watching that this Sunday evening with our 13 year old.

It all makes perfect sense.
Rise > top > decline.
It’s the same for countries, companies, and each of us individually.

On the way up people are hardworking and scrappy.

At the top decadence and entitlement creep in. Work ethic and productivity decreases - people don’t want to work, they want to live the good life. The wealth gaps increase, as do the hostilities between the haves and “have-nots”. The have-nots know something is wrong but don’t know how to change it. They’re ok if their standard of living keeps increasing, even if it’s not as fast as for others. Shit hits the fan if their lifestyle decreases though.

My first thought is to wonder how best to equip my sons for the future. And that it’s almost inevitable that there’ll be military conflicts ahead.

Our 13 year old’s summary was “It’s like that line: Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” I’m proud of him. You’ll go far son.

Now is not a good time to be a scripted consumer, have poor work ethic, or expect things to stay the same forever.

Personally, I feel the need to batten down the hatches, kill non-revenue generating business activities (indulgences), and stay nimble.

 

[tomzestatlu]

Very interesting video and it makes a lot of sense.

For past few years there was a lot of talk about decline and I would say, that during last two years, we got into the downward spiral and everything is falling apart faster and faster.
We are literally waiting for the point, when everything will break up and we don´t know, whether it will be next week or few years. I live in Europe and things seem to be a little bit upside down and the future very unclear.
It almost feels like our civilization would deserve a "coup de grace".

It´s being said, that you gotta work with what you got. None of us is going to change about what´s going to happen. The question is, how to prepare and find yourself on the better part of redistribution.

 

[p0stscript]

Having now watched the full video I am wondering how far along the downward slope the US are, and if they can slow down, if not halt, the decline; or are they too far along the negative path to change things?

 

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[DWX]

Having now watched the full video I am wondering how far along the downward slope the US are, and if they can slow down, if not halt, the decline; or are they too far along the negative path to change things?

I think the US can slow it down. However, unless they heal the division that has plagued their country, they will succumb to the inevitable like so many empires did before them.

Populist politics, big media, and incessant censorship has rocked their foundations.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

However, unless they heal the division that has plagued their country

Until the media loses its power over an easily influenced citizenry, or starts being honest, this ain't happening.

The end is gaining momentum.

 

[garyfritz]

Until the media loses its power over an easily influenced citizenry, or starts being honest, this ain't happening.

Neither of which is very likely, unfortunately. Too many people make money by lying to gullible idiots.

We have more internecine conflict in this country than we've seen since the Civil War. There are enough violent and gun-toting loons that we could easily tip into another internal war like that. The Jan. 6 insurrection could be a small preview of coming attractions.

 

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[tnekwerd]

Big Ray Dalio fan and I've read the book. He estimates that the US is about 70% through its "big cycle" and that we're in what he calls "stage 5"—high internal conflict, bad economic fundamentals/lots of inequality, large debt with high prospects of default (most likely through printing lots of money since we're the largest reserve currency), corruption and weak leadership, etc.

"Stage 6" is where the internal conflicts turn into bloodshed and even civil war, which he estimates there's a 30% chance of something like that happening in the next 10 years or so. That's...concerning, to say the least.

Could this be reversed? Dalio isn't very optimistic. He does point out that the US has had a pretty incredible ability to bend and not break in it's 250-ish years of existence. But the trends in all of the indicators he's watching are not promising.

One of the big indicators he pays attention to is whether or not people are following the rules (essentially, how well the rule of law is holding up). In the past two national elections, each side has accused the other of "stealing" the election (Russian interference in 2016 and voter fraud in 2020).

So already, both sides are primed to question the legitimacy of the other side winning. In all likelihood, 2024 is going to be a mess and I'll be watching very carefully how each side reacts.

Another indicator to watch is how various factions feel about the other. In 1960, only 5% of the population said they'd be upset if one of their children married someone from the "other" political party. In recent surveys, it's at or over 50% for both conservatives and progressives. Something like 15-20% of respondents also said that the world would be better off if everyone in the "other" party "just died".

That's a pretty big red flag to me that many people have already dehumanized the "other" side. It's not hard to get the herd to do some real heinous shit once they've breached that mindset. We're seeing glimpses of that already, I think.

Personally, I'm hoping for the best, but preparing for the worst.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

Another indicator to watch is how various factions feel about the other. In 1960, only 5% of the population said they'd be upset if one of their children married someone from the "other" political party. In recent surveys, it's at or over 50% for both conservatives and progressives. Something like 15-20% of respondents also said that the world would be better off if everyone in the "other" party "just died".

That's a pretty big red flag to me that many people have already dehumanized the "other" side. It's not hard to get the herd to do some real heinous shit once they've breached that mindset. We're seeing glimpses of that already, I think.

Yup, nothing has changed in 2000 years. As long as Facebook, FOX, or CNN advocates whatever the "current thing" is, the morons will comply. COVID proved the gullibility of the general populous to accept whatever authority says, no matter how ridiculous ("two weeks to slow the spread" which is now 2 years.) At this point in time, Joe Rogan is likely a better source than any corporate media network or tech aristocracy, and even he has to fight his own master.

https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/community/threads/the-milgram-experiment-why-you-must-always-question-authority.95714/

 

[ohmamecr]

I'd love to see some discussion on this video.

That video opened my mind so hard, i was thinking about the past 1971 to see what is happening now and when i saw the video i realize that he was doin the same thing for 50 years

 

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[Daniel A]

View: https://youtu.be/8z5VtVARMag

Original Source:

View: https://youtu.be/dFn8_ESsffI

 

[Jadus]

Excellent video. I read Simon Black's Sovereign Man newsletter every day. He's a student of history as well and often tells stories of the rise and fall of past empires. The similarities to modern day America are uncanny.

 

[Ela]

I watched this Ray Dalio's video after i bought his book, the video gives the best explanation of how economical cycle works and move to next phases.

This guy studied the history of economics in depth in this book, also the explanation was very simple and anyone can understand.

We can also compare the current world situation with the world, and it fits right.

 

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[Zardiw]

I'd love to see some discussion on this video.

I've been stockpiling physical Silver and Gold. Getting some diamonds (downside of diamonds is the price is artificially kept high by DeBeers....there are TONS of diamonds out there - especially in Russia (btw we gave Russia NO CHOICE but to invade Ukraine...do the research to see what I mean) )...so Emeralds, Rubies may be a better choice....if you have large volumes of cash is also probably a good idea. They are small and portable for going through metal detectors and such. That's if you need to GTF out of town........lol.........which may be a good idea anyway.....cause the shit is going to hit the fan in the not so distant future.....

z

 

[Zardiw]

View: https://youtu.be/8z5VtVARMag

Original Source:

View: https://youtu.be/dFn8_ESsffI

I try to avoid watching that pervert of a buffoon........it's just upsetting......and takes my mind off the true purpose of life: Making a shit ton of money.

z

 

[Silverfox148]

I hope this thread doesn't get dragged into the wasteland that is U.S politics or increasingly foreign issues.

I saw a series that Dalio was running on LinkedIn on this some time back, to actually publish this on his end is courageous because he is subtly laying out the eventual downfall of the U.S empire.

The downfall of the U.S empire is increasingly at hand, the biggest factor in my opinion is the absolute moral bankruptcy of all three branches of the U.S government with the Executive and Legislative long gone, you have individuals on all sides engaged in INSIDERS stock trading and amassing tens/hundreds of millions either directly or via family members. The last remaining branch, the judicial is increasingly also becoming politicized and once that loses it's credibility I believe you will start to see real on the ground developments.

Most people don't realize that the main factor that keeps the U.S as a world power both domestically and internationally is the belief that the nation overall inherently stands for good and represents a positive force in the world both domestically and internationally. This belief is gone domestically and internationally, it just hasn't been acknowledged. We are already having a reputational civil war domestically online.

 

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[Zardiw]

I'd like to point out that the dollar is STILL backed by Gold.

Why? Because you can BUY Gold with dollars. All the dollars in existence CAN still be backed by gold.......of course you would need the price of gold to be at $100,000+ / oz or something...lol......

We never needed to run out of gold back in the 70's.......we just needed to raise the price of Gold.

BUT, since the price of Gold AND Silver have been manipulated for YEARS....that wasn't an option.....

Because the major banks had large short positions on these, and would have gone tits up if the price had sky rocketed.......and fwiw, that is STILL the case.

z

 

[NickVGreen]

These are more just quick reflections/rants than a discussion on my end.

In general
In a world where way too many people predict X, Y and Z without data or humility (and no repercussions for being wildly off the mark), it is refreshing to have Dalio be so cautious in sharing the reflections he and his team have gathered so much data on. Throughout the book, he repeatedly notes that these are trends, not guarantees, and essentially invokes the "past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results" caveat. He writes with a remarkable humility.

Yet, I am inclined to believe that the data and trends he presents are correct and I don't have enough reasons to believe that the United States is going to become the first "empire" to not fail. Even if every elected official in the US read this book and took it to heart, I believe the temptations of personal and party gain (and voter support) would trump consideration of the US' future place in the world. The US electorate at large would probably not support such candidates, as those candidates would preach increased taxes combined with reduced entitlements and to invest only where those investments would increase productivity rather than political favor.

Falling does not mean Max Max anarchy though (at least not necessarily). The Netherlands and the UK still exist as civilized countries after their respective falls-as-empires. One of the trickier parts of the US is its size and composition and whether some states (either individually or as groups) will see themselves as better off separate from a disgraced-and-desperate federal government. Alternatively, maybe some states end up confronting the federal government and reduce the concentration of power it has gained over the years.

Municipal/county debt
Though Dalio doesn't speak of it, he reminds me of something the Strong Towns movement in the US points out: many local communities in the US have a lot debt, due in part to uneconomical suburban development. Local communities build new suburban developments with low density and high utilities to pay off previous debt, get enough money from sales to deal with some previous debts, but must then build more new suburban developments to cover the new debts from the latest development (and eventually go bankrupt because the low density development doesn't bring in enough tax revenue to pay for utilities maintenance).

I don't know how, but I have a feeling that this could play a role in the US overall debt problems (unless Strong Towns has exaggerated the problem or I misunderstood the scope of the problem). Some communities have apparently dealt with the problem by moving toward medium density/mixed-used developments.

The invasion of the Ukraine
I believe that the US, following whatever agreement results at the end of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, will appear to win over Russia even as the it (the US) ultimately loses. The speed and efficiency of the US and European sanctions will and have turned a few countries away from investing in US bonds/USD, as they see how quickly the US and Europe can strike at countries that have deep trade and investment relationships with them. I imagine it as one of those classic moments of apparent success overshadowing the coming fall. This will be part of countries moving their investments away from the US, further worsening US debt.

(Russia is going to lose regardless, either with Ukraine as a burdensome occupied state or with a compromise that weakens internal cohesion in addition to its pathetic and weakening economy; F*ck Putin for having wasted decades of Russia's potential)

Personal note
In reading and listening to Dalio though, I have to caveat myself as being a determinist leads me to more easily see and agree with the kind of cyclical determinism Dalio presents with short- and long-term debt cycles and the rise and fall of empires. It is easy to support views that fall in line with what I already believe, but I believe that Dalio is genuine in his expressed desire to share his actual reflection and the data he and his team have gathered. There may be flaws in what he presents, but he is forthright about aiming for the general trend over any precise details (accuracy over precision).

 

[Dan_Cardone]

Stockpile precious metals all you want but be sure to get in shape, make friends with your neighbors and community leaders, get some medical training, and get some firearms training.

Wouldn’t hurt to learn about obtaining food and keeping a few extra months worth of supplies on hand as well. Maybe you will never need it but can you really see many cons to any of the above? I can’t.

 

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[BaiAnrui]

Our 13 year old’s summary was “It’s like that line: Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” I’m proud of him. You’ll go far son.

@Andy Black , That is great, have to remember this one!
You raised him well

 

[Andy Black]

@Andy Black , That is great, have to remember this one!
You raised him well

Thanks.

That’s a famous line. He likely learned it off YouTube where he binge watches history channels (as well as gaming channels).

 

[Onakosa]

Just finished watching that this Sunday evening with our 13 year old.

It all makes perfect sense.
Rise > top > decline.
It’s the same for countries, companies, and each of us individually.

On the way up people are hardworking and scrappy.

At the top decadence and entitlement creep in. Work ethic and productivity decreases - people don’t want to work, they want to live the good life. The wealth gaps increase, as do the hostilities between the haves and “have-nots”. The have-nots know something is wrong but don’t know how to change it. They’re ok if their standard of living keeps increasing, even if it’s not as fast as for others. Shit hits the fan if their lifestyle decreases though.

My first thought is to wonder how best to equip my sons for the future. And that it’s almost inevitable that there’ll be military conflicts ahead.

Our 13 year old’s summary was “It’s like that line: Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” I’m proud of him. You’ll go far son.

Now is not a good time to be a scripted consumer, have poor work ethic, or expect things to stay the same forever.

Personally, I feel the need to batten down the hatches, kill non-revenue generating business activities (indulgences), and stay nimble.

Just finished watching that this Sunday evening with our 13 year old.

It all makes perfect sense.
Rise > top > decline.
It’s the same for countries, companies, and each of us individually.

On the way up people are hardworking and scrappy.

At the top decadence and entitlement creep in. Work ethic and productivity decreases - people don’t want to work, they want to live the good life. The wealth gaps increase, as do the hostilities between the haves and “have-nots”. The have-nots know something is wrong but don’t know how to change it. They’re ok if their standard of living keeps increasing, even if it’s not as fast as for others. Shit hits the fan if their lifestyle decreases though.

My first thought is to wonder how best to equip my sons for the future. And that it’s almost inevitable that there’ll be military conflicts ahead.

Our 13 year old’s summary was “It’s like that line: Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.” I’m proud of him. You’ll go far son.

Now is not a good time to be a scripted consumer, have poor work ethic, or expect things to stay the same forever.

Personally, I feel the need to batten down the hatches, kill non-revenue generating business activities (indulgences), and stay nimble.

Interesting reading this, Andy. I've felt we've been on the edge of something for the last few years. I'm about the same age as you, I think, and I can't remember the country feeling this divided before. Seemed to start with Brexit and snowball from there. Factor in that, in real terms, the cost of living has escalated while wages haven't increased much in the last 30 years, and it's all a bit 1979 (but without the good music). "Stay nimble" indeed.

 

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[chimichangatime]

People have been predicting the end of the world since there were people, and this includes countries. Yet, here we are. This is more of the same. It's like those "longevity experts" - there's a "law" out there that they always predict immortality will arrive 20 years from now but before the researcher is too old to benefit.

COVID didn't prove anything except how much people only care for themselves, but that's basically game theory and we knew that already.

Joe Rogan is a moron, IMHO, and I support any platform, even this one (which has "canceled" members it does not like or that pissed them off) and their right to boot anybody they damned please for any damned reason, or to keep them on and let them spout their opinions. As long as it's not the government, EVERYONE has an agenda and they can promote it how they see fit on their platform. (I did not cancel my Spotify account, FYI, I just don't listen to his show)

I firmly don't believe people just support "the current thing." Sure, it makes a pithy quote and cute avatar, but most people don't even have the slightest idea what's going on in the world outside their bubble. Wasn't it The Man Show that asked people about Women's Suffrage and people didn't know what it was, they thought "suffrage" meant "suffering" and most people they met were adamantly against it. I could ask you something outside of your domain that sounds like something else and trick you, too. This proves nothing.

It's not CNN's/etc. fault that people are generally ill-informed (It IS, however, Fox's fault that their viewers are actually less informed than people that watch no news at all). And being ill-informed doesn't mean you're stupid, it just means you're trying to live your life, man. I could mean you're stupid, but probably not.

 

[MexicanCreator48]

I'd love to see some discussion on this video.

This guy makes really awesome videos. I recommend you watch the principles video.