Ray Dalio's Changing World Order... Thoughts?

[MJ DeMarco]

About 1/3rd of the way through this book, but I'm losing interest in it as it seems like a lot of minutia, but not nothing actionable yet.

Amazon.com: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail (Audible Audio Edition): Ray Dalio, Jeremy Bobb, Ray Dalio, Simon & Schuster Audio: Books

Amazon.com: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail (Audible Audio Edition): Ray Dalio, Jeremy Bobb, Ray Dalio, Simon & Schuster Audio: Books

www.amazon.com

Thus far it is quite an interesting historical account, but I'm not hearing any evidence why "this time is different" -- in centuries past, the global economy was very isolationist, today, it is deeply entwined.

Basically what I'm hearing is the the USA is in rapid decline (old news) and China is on the rise (old news) ... I didn't need to spend 4 hours to discover this ... shall I continue listening?

 

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[olli_23]

A while back I read several chapters as they were published before the book came out.

I also find it very heavy material and found it difficult to get through. In the end I don't think there will be huge take-aways or plot twists. It's a very detailed account of the actual cycles in a lot of detail. The point being that those cycles always return. (or have returned several times in the past).

That being said I believe Ray Dalio's analysis is very thorough and objective. This kind of research I imagine is what makes him one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the world. Knowing what happened in the past surely gives you an advantage in predicting the future. Especially since most people only go back as far as their own lifetime. Ray goes back lots of generations and does it in an amazing detail.

Keep in mind I haven't read the full book yet... But considering I dragged myself through those chapters and, as you say, there is not much actionable advice in it, I might skip this one.

 

[Antifragile]

I have enjoyed Dalio's prior works (even before he turned them into books). Material may be dense, but it's the exact type of research that most people are unwilling to do. And because it's usually dense the 99% won't read it, but the 1% will have enough tools to make good bets on the future. Comparatively speaking, this book is light and easy to read. I too am about 1/3 of the way. Unlike you, I am enjoying every bit of it and highlighting a lot.

About 1/3rd of the way through this book, but I'm losing interest in it as it seems like a lot of minutia, but not nothing actionable yet...
....Thus far it is quite an interesting historical account, but I'm not hearing any evidence why "this time is different" -- in centuries past, the global economy was very isolationist, today, it is deeply entwined.

I am surprised with your comment above, MJ. Were you expecting a "manual" or "10 actionable steps on how to beat the market"? Doesn't seem like something you'd say.

And what did you mean by "this time is different" comment? I interpreted it as you thinking that the world of today is intertwined and therefore this time it's different. Is that what you meant?

 

[MJ DeMarco]

MJ. Were you expecting a "manual" or "10 actionable steps on how to beat the market"?

Of course not.

However I was expecting more than a history lesson. As I said, I feel like 4 hours have passed and have not received any value other a confirmation to my bias that the US is going down, and China is rising. In a book of this length, you'd expect some definitive conclusions to be made (or clearly ascertained), but as I said, I haven't made it thru the entire book, so perhaps I will come away with something definitive. I was expecting some immense value in the PDF charts, but the Audible PDF is pretty much unreadable and the charts are poorly legend'ed. ... perhaps the book is different.

And what did you mean by "this time is different" comment? I interpreted it as you thinking that the world of today is intertwined and therefore this time it's different. Is that what you meant?

Yes. I butchered the statement, I meant that today's world is 1000% different than the examples provided just from a few short decades ago. So I'm not sure if what happened in the past can be accurately, even if minimally, projected and/or forecasted to the current state of the world economy which is tightly connected. The American stock market no longer is about American companies, but composed of world mega-corporations deeply entrenched in world economies. I think what happened in 2008 is an illustration of how tightly correlated world markets are today, and that was nearly 15 years ago when globalization was not nearly as advanced.

 

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[Antifragile]

OK, I get you MJ.

A few things:
1. Your read on the USA and China is not a bias. It's a fact. Verifiable fact.
2. Book is better than audible for this type of material. I can't imagine listening and staying interested. A book like "WILL" is Audible all day long.

I'll just do a snapshot of a small piece that confirms what many (hopefully most) on this forum already know. It is important because this forum is a niche, minority group. The vast majority don't think "UNSCRIPTED " or "FASTLANE" and live in their own echo chamber. But look at the data he's posting on the trust for media. That's data on the majority of the population - not just a segment like this forum!




We may all be thinking "gee, media sure feels like a political tool of influence". Now Dalio comes out and says this to everyone, yes it is! Beware. Fox, CNN is being used to create division. Being aware of that for the majority of the population is (or should be) useful in diffusing the populism. The only peaceful way forward is for people to calm the F*ck down. We are not that different even if one voted for the opposite side.

I am starting to ramble...

 

[MJ DeMarco]

OK, I get you MJ.

A few things:
1. Your read on the USA and China is not a bias. It's a fact. Verifiable fact.
2. Book is better than audible for this type of material. I can't imagine listening and staying interested. A book like "WILL" is Audible all day long.

I'll just do a snapshot of a small piece that confirms what many (hopefully most) on this forum already know. It is important because this forum is a niche, minority group. The vast majority don't think "UNSCRIPTED " or "FASTLANE" and live in their own echo chamber. But look at the data he's posting on the trust for media. That's data on the majority of the population - not just a segment like this forum!

View attachment 41480


We may all be thinking "gee, media sure feels like a political tool of influence". Now Dalio comes out and says this to everyone, yes it is! Beware. Fox, CNN is being used to create division. Being aware of that for the majority of the population is (or should be) useful in diffusing the populism. The only peaceful way forward is for people to calm the f*ck down. We are not that different even if one voted for the opposite side.

I am starting to ramble...

Yes, I definitely found myself nodding at a lot of the material. I guess a better way of saying what I originally posited, is I have yet to come away with anything *new* to my body of knowledge, and that would alter any future actions.

The info about most people realizing the media is crap is suspicious to me because the actual viewing numbers contradict this info. Why on earth would anyone watch something they realize is a bunch of liars? Why keep buying a product you know sucks? If this data was true, these media companies should be bankrupt by now, but they're not ... a mega corporation cannot survive alienating 87% of its customers, it simply isn't in the numbers.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

Yes, I definitely found myself nodding at a lot of the material. I guess a better way of saying what I originally posited, is I have yet to come away with anything *new* to my body of knowledge, and that would alter any future actions.

The info about most people realizing the media is crap is suspicious to me because the actual viewing numbers contradict this info. Why on earth would anyone watch something they realize is a bunch of liars? Why keep buying a product you know sucks? If this data was true, these media companies should be bankrupt by now, but they're not ... a mega corporation cannot survive alienating 87% of its customers, it simply isn't in the numbers.

It’s kind of like congress I think... the polls are abysmal, but everyone thinks “their guy” is great.

So “the media sucks, but my favorite (channel, newspaper, blog) doesn’t.”

 

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[David Fitz]

I finished it. Skip to the last chapter for some actionable advice on how he "predicts" things. Most of it is explaining history, how China will be the super power, how countries decline like USA is now, every country goes through ups and downs, wars and changes etc...

 

[WillHurtDontCare]

in centuries past, the global economy was very isolationist, today, it is deeply entwined.

Not true in the least. Modern technology obviously makes transportation of goods, ideas, and people much faster, but the world has always been deeply entwined. Just read about traders / sailors in the 1300s traveling the globe to trade silk & spices.

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B965f8AcNbw

 

[Kak]

Despite having liked his “Principles,” I think I’ll pass on this one considering the content in this thread.

Just another talking head who doesn’t know what’s going to happen any more than any other talking head. Most of us know the world is in trouble and what we choose to do with that information is a personal decision.

I’m here in TX now. I probably won’t be forever. I’ll always do what’s best for my family as I have zero emotional loyalty to a state or country.

My family>anything anyone else thinks is important.

 

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[Guest-5ty5s4]

Sounds like a book stating the obvious.

Coming from the point of “do something to the world” rather than “the world does something to you,” it feels like a very defeatist message on the part of Dalio, a person with tremendous influence.

On a personal level, I have less respect for him due to that message. He might be right but it just seems so “oh well, we lost, go learn Mandarin.”

Oh and learn to like communism. Get ready to make public apologies like John Cena, and bye bye Taiwan.

Is that the message Ray? Sheesh.

 

[Kevin88660]

About 1/3rd of the way through this book, but I'm losing interest in it as it seems like a lot of minutia, but not nothing actionable yet.

Amazon.com: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail (Audible Audio Edition): Ray Dalio, Jeremy Bobb, Ray Dalio, Simon & Schuster Audio: Books

Amazon.com: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed or Fail (Audible Audio Edition): Ray Dalio, Jeremy Bobb, Ray Dalio, Simon & Schuster Audio: Books

www.amazon.com

Thus far it is quite an interesting historical account, but I'm not hearing any evidence why "this time is different" -- in centuries past, the global economy was very isolationist, today, it is deeply entwined.

Basically what I'm hearing is the the USA is in rapid decline (old news) and China is on the rise (old news) ... I didn't need to spend 4 hours to discover this ... shall I continue listening?

I read the public analysis provided by bridge water years ago that were openly available on their website.

Basically when it comes to historical analysis they are just trying to say “long china” in a complicated way.

Indeed there is no much actionable content. It has been always been a fund manager speaking to other fund managers allocate more of their portfolio into China.

It is easy to counter argue with against this kind of broad historical extrapolation. As the famous “China Bear” Jim chanos said that he wasn’t arguing against the rise of China. You could be right on betting on the rise on U.S. in the past, but still get wiped out if you do it right before the American civil war.

There is also likely to have other agendas involved. Why does a multi-billionaire needs to spend his time to write a book just to shout “long china”? His clients are sovereign wealth fund. And probably China is his biggest client (or going to be).

The devils are in the details. The domestic Chinese stock market had poor performance. These are legacy state owned enterprise who had a reputation of low productivity and negative cashflow. All the competitive Chinese companies are listed in U.S. or trying to get listed in U.S.

There are also many small private companies in China that are profitable and serving the domestic Chinese market. But unless you are running a VC there they off reach to the typical investor staying outside China.

Large MNC like Macdonald and Apple and making a lot of money. They are making lots and lots of money.

A better and more useful book would be “How to sell to the China market for business”.

It doesn’t have to be physically in China. Just look at the real estate market and foreign students accommodation market in Australia.

I have a crypto Youtube channel in Chinese language. Because Youtube isn’t accessible from China, most viewers are Chinese speakers in U.S.

 

[Kevin88660]

Of course not.

However I was expecting more than a history lesson. As I said, I feel like 4 hours have passed and have not received any value other a confirmation to my bias that the US is going down, and China is rising. In a book of this length, you'd expect some definitive conclusions to be made (or clearly ascertained), but as I said, I haven't made it thru the entire book, so perhaps I will come away with something definitive. I was expecting some immense value in the PDF charts, but the Audible PDF is pretty much unreadable and the charts are poorly legend'ed. ... perhaps the book is different.



Yes. I butchered the statement, I meant that today's world is 1000% different than the examples provided just from a few short decades ago. So I'm not sure if what happened in the past can be accurately, even if minimally, projected and/or forecasted to the current state of the world economy which is tightly connected. The American stock market no longer is about American companies, but composed of world mega-corporations deeply entrenched in world economies. I think what happened in 2008 is an illustration of how tightly correlated world markets are today, and that was nearly 15 years ago when globalization was not nearly as advanced.

There are actually quite good sophisticated criticism towards China. They are just not found in the English language discussion.

This is because on aggregate there are far less people interested in the English speaking world.

The China bulls are driven by the argument that the end game was a democracy by design will always end up in debt and hyperinflation paying for welfare. So in contrast if you have a leadership that is able to take a long term development view undisturbed by popular votes, you could make long term investment in the country that is pro growth and not partisan.

But it could lead to very puzzling outcome if you buy into that pro-china narrative 100%. This is a country that have welfare level of that of a middle income country. Half of the population are living with below 200 USD per month, poverty level by the standard of developed countries. On the other hands you have world class infrastructure, roads, fast internet speed all over the country. And China is now building roads, schools and hospitals all over the world for developing countries.

Indeed very strange priorities.

Political stances produce narrative. If you are a China bull, you got to believe that they are doing goods for the whole world. Since IMF and the west didn't do them for the past decades.

On the other hands you could argue that they have no choices. They have too much state owned enterprise and bureaucracies that are designed for infrastructure expansion. If you accept the other economic direction, that the government role is to get into debt to enable consumers to have consumer welfare, then you have to massive fire the people in the whole extended bureaucracy, the technicians, engineers who know nothing other than setting up roads, flats and bridges. This is because in a one party socialist state, the power and support come from below, not the voters but who people who receive a paycheck in the bureaucracy and state owned company.

Political needs drive economic narrative. They will find all the possible economic narrative to justify a political need. In that regards there is no difference from other democracies. So basically China is just distorted in the opposite way.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Not true in the least. Modern technology obviously makes transportation of goods, ideas, and people much faster, but the world has always been deeply entwined. Just read about traders / sailors in the 1300s traveling the globe to trade silk & spices.

Well then we obviously disagree which is OK.

I tend to view a silk trader that takes 3 months to go from China to Paris different than the Apple Corporation which trades on the NASDAQ American stock exchange and whose product is in the hands of half of the planet and has their fingerprints in virtually every country. Centuries ago it was the East India Trading Company who influenced global commerce, now there are thousands of EITCs.

 

[Johnny boy]

It’s not a great “do something right now” book by the nature of it. Still worth a read