My project got beaten to market first and would like some advice.

[Erik447]

Hi guys,

I've been in the process of developing a prototype of a small electronic product that would solve a problem for niche market. When I started researching about the problem, there was no solution to be found until recently. While doing further research online, I stumbled upon a product that works exactly the way I was intending mine to work to be released within the next few months. Seems like this product has about a year of head start after digging into the history of it. It was really hard to find as they haven't really pushed any marketing or have any following at all. The idea is already validated though, at least from my end. I did go door to door surveying my target audience and people asked me to comeback to them once I have it ready to sell. Competition was to be expected for sure, but seems like both product ideas have identical features. The only difference is the business model and price point. The other company wants to sell the device and run a subscription monthly plan type of service. I find their price too high and the subscription to be a ripoff. I wanted to offer a one time sale deal with the same features. They can easily pivot out of that overreaching price and subscription model fairly easily though. I want to go for it but I would like some advice on this. Any input would be greatly appreciated! thank you!

 

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[Madame Peccato]

Go on with your plan.

If what you said is true, you'll beat them by outcompeting them. If your device is useful it will get copied by hundreds of copycats anyway. You'll never be alone, there will always someone competing with you.

If anything, the fact that someone else is creating the same exact product as yours means you are onto something.

 

[Raoul Duke]

 

[Kid]

It was really hard to find as they haven't really pushed any marketing or have any following at all.

You have answer right there.

 

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[sparechange]

There's almost 8 billion people on the planet, it doesn't matter.

 

[Nick Kadutskyi]

Seems like this product has about a year of head start after digging into the history of it.

Do you mean a year of development or a year of sales?

I think it's important to differentiate your product so that it's clear that you will get large enough chunk of existing market.

The idea is already validated though, at least from my end. I did go door to door surveying my target audience and people asked me to comeback to them once I have it ready to sell.

I would say that since there is a competitor it further validates the idea. Since there are people who doesn't know about that another company it shows that there is demand but not enough supply.

I am curious about market size and idea validation. How many potential customers do you anticipate? After how many prospects that asked you to comeback with the product you decided that this idea is worth pursuing?
(I am kind of struggling with validating my own idea currently)

 

[Erik447]

A year of development. My idea is simple but tough to execute, all the way from getting the right microcontroller to building an application for the app store, which I must say has the highest level of bs I have ever seen. Now I see why Apple is getting so much hate.

You're asking a very good question there that I keep struggling with Unfortunately, I can't get good data that points to a clear picture of my market size. It is just not available. So I looked for data from which I could infer a worst/best case scenario assumption. I am also using anecdotal evidence from people in that field to make a stronger case. At least in my country, I estimate something between 2-3 million potential customers. If I can land anything between 5-10% of that number it would be a profitable thing based on the production costs that I am looking at, possibly even with marketing too. That is the best I could do. I think that the next step would be to try some low-cost tests to see the market reaction.

My issue is that my market will eventually disappear with time. How much time, many years but it will decline as it depends on dying infrastructure. I don't think it will completely disappear but it is a case of diminishing returns. The way I see it is I could take advantage of this, try to squeeze it, and use those gains to pivot to something else. I've been stressing out about whether if it's worth it.

 

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[Knugs]

A year of development. My idea is simple but tough to execute, all the way from getting the right microcontroller to building an application for the app store, which I must say has the highest level of bs I have ever seen. Now I see why Apple is getting so much hate.

You're asking a very good question there that I keep struggling with Unfortunately, I can't get good data that points to a clear picture of my market size. It is just not available. So I looked for data from which I could infer a worst/best case scenario assumption. I am also using anecdotal evidence from people in that field to make a stronger case. At least in my country, I estimate something between 2-3 million potential customers. If I can land anything between 5-10% of that number it would be a profitable thing based on the production costs that I am looking at, possibly even with marketing too. That is the best I could do. I think that the next step would be to try some low-cost tests to see the market reaction.

My issue is that my market will eventually disappear with time. How much time, many years but it will decline as it depends on dying infrastructure. I don't think it will completely disappear but it is a case of diminishing returns. The way I see it is I could take advantage of this, try to squeeze it, and use those gains to pivot to something else. I've been stressing out about whether if it's worth it.

1) you have somebody that validated your idea, product and concept. It’s the best thing ever. I would rather have that scenario instead of being the first one in the market

2) I have an issue with your 5-10% target until you are profitable. Can you elaborate

3) the main issue is your last point. How diminishing is it. It all depends on the significance of this point. Companies still create gas powered cars although we are looking at a future of EV.

 

[Erik447]

2) I have an issue with your 5-10% target until you are profitable. Can you elaborate

No, I guess I didn't express myself correctly there. I am estimating high margins from the very beginning which could be improved by volume later. I only meant that maybe that could be a realistic max share of this niche in my country.

Right now, I am just thinking about what would be the best way to test and get a feel for the market. The competition has not launched yet. I don't know if is wise to assume they will get a good response, especially cause their saas approach seems like an overreach into the pockets of a demographic that does not have that much money to begin with. I wonder if they even tested.

I am debating whether I should start with a bare-bones PCB and 3D printed case that just fixes the problem and try to sell as is locally. Would be great for spotting bugs and unaccounted for issues as well as low in cost. If I waterfall straight into a close to final product with an injection mold, it might feel more legit for clients but pivoting will take longer and be more expensive as manufacturing delays are very real at the moment.

 

[Black_Dragon43]

Hi guys,

I've been in the process of developing a prototype of a small electronic product that would solve a problem for niche market. When I started researching about the problem, there was no solution to be found until recently. While doing further research online, I stumbled upon a product that works exactly the way I was intending mine to work to be released within the next few months. Seems like this product has about a year of head start after digging into the history of it. It was really hard to find as they haven't really pushed any marketing or have any following at all. The idea is already validated though, at least from my end. I did go door to door surveying my target audience and people asked me to comeback to them once I have it ready to sell. Competition was to be expected for sure, but seems like both product ideas have identical features. The only difference is the business model and price point. The other company wants to sell the device and run a subscription monthly plan type of service. I find their price too high and the subscription to be a ripoff. I wanted to offer a one time sale deal with the same features. They can easily pivot out of that overreaching price and subscription model fairly easily though. I want to go for it but I would like some advice on this. Any input would be greatly appreciated! thank you!

Go for it. You have just one competitor. What about those of us who have THOUSANDS of competitors? Should we throw in the towel?

 

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