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My Personal Warning Alarm On Coronavirus - 1 MILLION+ Deaths

Thoelt53

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bilkar1985

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MJ DeMarco

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Thats a really dumb guess.

Dude, take a chill pill. His opinion could be dumb, but so could yours. No one really knows (yet).
 

ChrisV

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That guy is a retard.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-r...onavirus-could-infect-60-of-global-population

He leaves out (or its edited out) that that number is if we did absolutely nothing to curtail its spread.
He's not though, unfortunately. I think those numbers are with the containment methods; which they've figured out there's not much they can do about.

 
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PizzaOnTheRoof

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On a more serious note:

View attachment 30891
No way Ebola was just as contagious as Corona is now. I’m calling BS on this graph.

You have to look at the region/culture where Ebola took off. They were washing dead bodies and have extremely poor sanitation, and even then it only affected tight communities. You literally have to be bleeding from your eyes onto someone for them to get Ebola.

Compare that to THOUSANDS of cases in developed 1st world countries + asymptomatic transmission?

Nah, fam.

Look at rabies too. I can’t give you rabies by sneezing next to you and yet it’s contagiousness is 10?
 
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Roger FS

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I went to drop a check off with my dad today. He invited me into his house for a visit and I declined for fear of having CV. My wife, myself, and two of my daughters all sick right now. Maybe its a cold, a flu, or CV. I don't trust the federal government right now that "things are under control". And since my parents are in their 60's, I'd rather use good judgement and not trust the information coming out that "everythings under control". I think once testing really gets underway, much more light will be shined on this thing. I am fairly optimistic that there are far more infections than we are aware of, and most people will recover without an issue.

In other news, the crazies are buying up bottled water from Costco. WTF?!?! I bought $3000 worth of food and supplies appropriate to keep my two homes operational and sanitary. I'm gonna sit back and relax while things unfold.

(side note) the commercial labs in Oregon supposedly should be able to do the testing here in the next two weeks.


It's a nasty cold season, which doesn't help. I rarely get a cold every couple years, and am now getting over my second bad one within a month's timeframe.

For what it's worth, some natural supplements that are supposed to help with immunity - I take a couple of these because of their supposed anti-cancer benefits (to help prevent recurrence):


There will probably be a run on many of these types of items at Amazon.
 

MarekvBeek

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I want to get this out there as soon as possible and I will go back and post into the thread some of my supporting perspectives but...

1 Million+ people will die from Coronavirus after it's all said and done. Please please take ACTION.

Here's what ACTION means... it does not mean wash your hands and bullshit (yeah do that, but we are past preventative stage), to increase the chances of not dying or being sick as a dog for weeks... we must play Offense.

Right now, it's "go into the hospital when you show symptoms and suspect Corona".. That's Bullshit. That is too late.

RAISE YOUR SELF AWARENESS & GO IN AS SOON AS SOMETHING SHOWS A BUMP IN CHANGE FROM BASELINE. Whether that's blood pressure, thirst, headache, couch, etc. etc. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU ARE "SICK".

When a foreign thing enters your body, your body will immediately give a reaction to it. Go in when you get this first initial reaction. If you blow it off or not aware enough to notice, and let the virus replicate and build enough in numbers to the point where you are actually feeling sick, then it's too late unless you want to be sicks for weeks, be near death, die, and everybody in your family going the same exact things.

"buT iF YouR yoUNg, yoU woNT Die" = Bullshit.

Think about this: you are sick as F*ck in the hospital bed, as well as other members in your family, and someone in your family dies. Yet, you are completely out of it cause you're sick, and although you don't die, you couldn't say your goodbyes.

Anyways, I will edit this later to add in my thoughts....

I'm not here to argue about the virus, try to prove my points, try to convince you I am some all knowing God, or this or that. I am truly giving out a plea for humanity with this. MJ will hate me and kick me off the forum, but I will try to bump this every day with more of what I see.

For the Record, at the time of this writing:
US Deaths = ~10 (some in critical condition and on the brink of)
US Infected Confirmed = ~122
Infected NYC Confirmed = 22

This is as of March 5, 2020. 8:37pm Pacific.

Even if it’s true that 1 mln will die. Why are you fear mongering?
 
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csalvato

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Whether or not @James Fend is right, wrong or out of line, threads like these are why the market is crashing.

This kind of panic-spreading is happening at mass scale.

The lesson here is to look out for that in the future. He made this extremely inflammatory post days before the crash.
 

scott wisniewsk

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Too much panic going on people buying toilet paper by the bulk ? That I just don't understand how that's going to help you . I stopped to buy some groceries at Walmart because it was on the way home from work. I was shocked Toilet paper and any paper products all gone . As well as any peanut butter , water , pasta , almost any soup and a lot of canned goods . People are going nuts over this corona . The news media is responsible for all this over hype. Now don't get me wrong you must be cautious . Does anyone remember the Swine flu of 2009 ? . 60 million infected and 300,000 hospitalized and thousands die in the U.S. Do you remember this type of hysteria then? Proof that the media is over hyped this big time .
 
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Jadpapi

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With what is going on in Italy, and all the hidden truth. You might be right, it looks like older people have no chance.
 

PirriRichFast

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I live in Holland.
But if this virus is really that dangerous then why did our governments didnt do much? they knew about the virus in china.
But still everyone was going on vacation in Europe and around the world.
Still people here are on vacation.. and traveled around Europe and South Amerika..
Now they are coming back.. and i bet they don't even test them.
1 week ago people still came back from Italy, Spain etc they dind't test them..
If people feel sick and ask for testing they refuse to test them.
They don't have enough test's and tests are not correct.

They think almost everybody or everybody will get it in holland

Don't get me wrong.. I don't believe that my government have the best interest in there citizens.
I mean that if it really is that fast and true air and all of that then there would me a much much more people getting it and getting sick etc..
People still traveling on a train, car, bus, plane, boats
People still work in crowded places, construction workers they all work close to each other..
No big outbreak...
I think that is weird if it is really so contagious.
Then they say on the news hospitals are full? Duhh here in holland even without this virus they are full.
They have no empty buildings.. for disasters or viruses or war..
If you want a new hip? Guess what maybe after 4 or more weeks they will operate..
If they need to make a picture.. or ct scan... People are like cows in the hospital..
Big waiting rooms, etc.
On a non virus free day on a nice day.. it will still be crowded in or hospitals.
Because people live like crap.. and eat like crap and follow the doctor with a pill for cholestrol.. or a pill for your 16 year old daughter, anti depresiva! Jeej! now the is F up for life... because its damn hard to live without it..
Dokters dont know how to fix people with good health, eating etc.. they have a big 5 6 7 8 year studie for?? Big pharma to sell your another bag of pills.

So jeah if some people get sick.. they cant handle it..
Its just pathetic.. Over the years they closed down allot of hospitals here..
When you get older and need help, they don't have enough people working in health care for the older people... people shit in there pants... and the same people that shit there pants have build this country..
Now they can wait for 2 days or if they are lucky some care taker will help them the same day..
Open your eyes.. people get distracted for what is really going on in this world..
Western world is getting worser every day.



So i mean for allot of weeks people to spread the virus like a mad man..
And it travels through air? and can live for very long on metal etc etc.. first only older people will get sick they say, then younger people then this then that blablabla... news change faster then a machine gun..

But look how much are really dead in Italy or Holland or Spain? and how much people have it?
If it really is so dangerous then there should be dying millions of people.

Its not bigger then the regular flew.. i think. Regular flew is in the same period and much more people died from that.
And they have tests but not enough, also sometimes test say positive next time same person negative?
etc etc.. maybe they just have the regular flew... only people over 65 all with other bad conditions died..
Stil very low dead numbers.. Regular flew much more.
So fear fear fear.. and 170 million people in lockdown for what>? For crashing the economy
But economic its Huge!!
And what about if they have a vaccine for this? Will it be obligated?


So i think this will be..
More control over people
Vaccines. After vaccination there will come a second wave and then allot of people will die..
Perhaps because we people believe that the people in power on this world. think they have your best interests. I don't believe that. I know people with children and they dind't have vaccination done for all the children.. And you can clearly see the difference.. its just poison.
Bill Gates speaks about how they want less people on earth.
No Cash money anymore.
Everything will get much more expansive..
If you don't obey then your screwed, Lol ^^ Just what i think about this stuff

Total slave control^^
 

PTFIRE

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This post is gonna do either one of two things :

- Prove that you have a great foresight if one million or more people die. '

- Prove that you watch too much of your favorite news channel, which by definition they're in the business of scaring people.

Jeff Bezos mentioned one of qualities of great people is their ability to be right not all the time but most of the time. It doesn't even matter how they do it. Even if it is a hunch.

I believe you will be completely wrong.

My prediction is that death's in the USA wont be more than 20k. Im not here to discuss how bad even one death is ( it is).

IT has to do with more than health or viruses. The fact the whole world has stopped for this bring a whole different message.

Look at every other mass hysteria virus, Ebola, SARS, the Spanish flu and by the numbers this is one of the weakest ones.
 

NateKruse

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I believe you will be completely wrong.

My prediction is that death's in the USA wont be more than 20k. Im not here to discuss how bad even one death is ( it is).

IT has to do with more than health or viruses. The fact the whole world has stopped for this bring a whole different message.

Look at every other mass hysteria virus, Ebola, SARS, the Spanish flu and by the numbers this is one of the weakest ones.

The problem with pandemics is that if people take the proper precautions and limit their exposure, the situation will be less severe. The government could enforce a quarantine with martial law and drastically limit the number of deaths but that would only reinforce your opinion that it was no big deal or a "nothingburger"

If nothing is done and the virus runs its course uninhibited, the medical system may be completely overwhelmed. In addition to the deaths from C0VlD-19, the people who could have been saved from other conditions will be unable to receive care. Increasing the all-cause death rate.
 
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BizyDad

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Ron Gipp

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You are probably not wrong about the death count, but I don't see it as a reason to panic. It's not much worse than a common flu. The flu kills each year over half a million people worldwide and I don't see anyone going crazy about it. I don't see how is this any different
Wow really, the common flu? This is the pandemic of our lifetime and is very serious
 

DrScream

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This is another great website as well. They have detailed information such as mortality rates per age, infections per gender/age


Check this out ^

if you're between the ages of 10-39 you have basically a .2% mortality rate.

If you're 40-49, that DOUBLES :O to .4%.

All the deaths are from the old dudes that are in their 70s+.

Nothing to worry about here folks... Move along.
Thank you for taking the time. You literally just came in and lifted ALL of the anxiety right off from under me. It's comforting to know I shouldn't be worried even though the world is at a standstill. I'm just going to focus on what I CAN control! ACTION
 
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arl

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Wow really, the common flu? This is the pandemic of our lifetime and is very serious

No shit Sherlock. You're replying to a 20 day old post. Things have changed quite a bit since then. I understimated how highly contagious the virus is.

But I stand by my point. The flu kills around half a million people a year. Covid19 has killed under 20.000 so far and it has managed to stop the world for who knows how long. I'm more scared of the economic consequences than the virus itself.

With that being said, just because I'm not at risk of dying from the virus it doesn't mean I'm not doing my part. I live in Spain and in the last 10 days I've just gotten out of the house once to buy groceries (and somehow I managed to catch it... I'm pretty sure I had it last week. But I'm almost recovered now).
 

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I call bullshit on the hysteria and manipulation while watching my back at the same time. An old sailing proverb would apply well here: Always one hand for the boat and one hand for yourself.

A few facts to put things in perspective:

According to the CDC, roughly 50 MILLION people worldwide contracted the FLU over the past five months.

That’s right. The flu. 50 million people. That works out to over 300,000 people PER DAY, which is pretty typical for a flu season.

Moreover, the CDC estimates that more than 50,000 people DIED of the flu during this past season.

But where was the mass panic? Where was the stock market crash? Where was the hysteria?
 

Mckenzie

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In 9-10 days.. New York City will be at 10,000+ infected. By mid-March, we will be Maximum Fear level (in the stock market sense anyways).

EDIT 8:15pm:
10,000 infected. I removed "confirmed" as I got ahead of myself. Being "confirmed" will greatly depend on testing availability. There will be a rather big lag from actual infected and those positive tests:

1) Incubation and symptoms are not immediate.

2) Difficulty to get Tests completed. Time delay, shortage of tests, etc.

Once #2 is squared away, there will be a spike of confirmed. Will that happen in 9-10 days, possibly, not sure. If #2 and #1 tie in around the same time, then the spike will be quite large.

I guess... only in hindsight will we be able to say "there likely was 10,000 infected at that point".

However, regardless of exact number... The general point is: The number is unimaginably "no F*cking way" high especially from where we are today.
What @James Fend predicted here early March. Where are you James?
 
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csalvato

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I call bullshit on the hysteria and manipulation while watching my back at the same time. An old sailing proverb would apply well here: Always one hand for the boat and one hand for yourself.

A few facts to put things in perspective:

According to the CDC, roughly 50 MILLION people worldwide contracted the FLU over the past five months.

That’s right. The flu. 50 million people. That works out to over 300,000 people PER DAY, which is pretty typical for a flu season.

Moreover, the CDC estimates that more than 50,000 people DIED of the flu during this past season.

But where was the mass panic? Where was the stock market crash? Where was the hysteria?

While I understand that perspective, I believe it is fundamentally flawed, and not based in reality, unfortunately.

Stats
Firstly, let's talk numbers. I did not find worldwide numbers from the CDC, so I am not sure what your source is. The CDC only predicts the burden of flu on the US, as far as I could find. Please correct me if I'm wrong:


According to this official CDC website:

CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season.​

Note that these numbers are spread over a 20 week period.

If we look at flu cases both in the US and globally for last season, this is what the curve looks like (source: WHO global data):

31611

31612

When you look at just the numbers, and are not used to looking at graphs like this, it looks like flu and C0VlD-19 are very similar. But they are not.

Looking at the total number of new positive cases for flu there are 50k new flu cases in a typical week at the height of the curve Here we are seeing 64k new cases globally in a day. That's a much more rapid spreading of the pathogen.

Source: Worldometer

31613

Second, when looking at this data, we have decades of flu data from previous years to compare to. The curve of infection and mortality looks similar year over year. We know what to expect, and have adjusted our healthcare system to accommodate these cases, as well as cases of all other diseases as a result.

C0VlD-19 has no data except what we have from this current epidemic.

We literally have no idea how many people this will affect, and are only looking at the current growth curve – which is starkly more steep than any flu we have ever seen before – so it certainly looks like it could be dramatically more impactful than the flu.

To draw a business analogy, the flu is a tried and true brick and mortar business that's been serving millions of people each year, predictably and reliably.

C0VlD-19 is a fast growing startup with hockey stick growth, with a huge total addressable market that could be the biggest business the world has ever seen. Sure, the startup could fizzle out like it's predecessors (H1N1, SARS, etc) – but it could be a unicorn that takes the world by storm, and the sky's the limit.

Right now, it appears to be taking the world by storm.

Practicalities

Following the conclusions from above, the practical handling of the pathogen is very difficult.

Firstly, there are many therapies and treatments for Flu. For example, we know that bacterial infections often follow flu, so we provide therapy with antibiotics. We know that certain anti-virals are effective in mitigating flu's symptoms, depending on the strain. Doctors also know a relatively predictable course the disease will take. This makes treatment relatively easy and predictable - even in the case where flu results in death.

With C0VlD-19, we are flying blind. There are no therapies for C0VlD-19, aside from providing a ventilator when breathing becomes too difficult. And in that case, ventilators may only be prolonging death since many C0VlD-19 patients are on ventilators far longer than recommended (25-30 days vs. 3-4 days), because there are no other known therapies.

The only therapy we know that has any effect (ventilators) are also expensive in every way – they require a hospital bed, hourly attention from nurses, daily attention from doctors and a relatively expensive piece of medical equipment. So even if there are just as many cases of C0VlD-19 as there are flu (which is likely to not be the case), the known therapy is vastly more difficult and expensive.

And, of course, our healthcare systems are built around known conditions, like the flu, and including other things (everything from broken legs to the sniffles to AIDS). C0VlD-19 is not factored into the equation at all.

So the systems are already under their normal load/burden (that is, still dealing with all those flu cases and every other disease we know about), and have to deal with the additional burden of this new pathogen that we have no idea how to handle.

The existing healthcare system is like a pint glass that's consistently 50-90% full. Adding C0VlD-19 to the mix, with no known therapies, is like pouring a gallon of water onto the top of it.

That means C0VlD-19 patients will suffer, as well as everyone else who is already expected to be within the healthcare system.

There's more to this story, obviously, but the main point is that you're comparing a very well known disease - flu in its various strains - to a new pathogen with a very unpredictable outcome that looks very grim .
 
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Two issues here:

1. This article is over 5 days old. The situation is VERY different now.
2. Off-guardian is not a credible news site, and is known to lean to conspiracy theories over facts

 

GIlman

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Two issues here:

1. This article is over 5 days old. The situation is VERY different now.
2. Off-guardian is not a credible news site, and is known to lean to conspiracy theories over facts


Exactly. Even the quoted #’s about the diamond princess is wrong. People just quit watching at some point and assume the story of the diamond princess is over. It’s not. Today 10 dead (not 7), 15 still struggling for their lives many of which are likely to die.

I’m quoting below another post on another thread so I don’t have to retype but it’s extremely relevant here too.


I don’t know anything about Sweden as a country, but as @Antti points out the situation appears to be deteriorating. One problem I’ve seen with this pandemic is that things change so rapidly that you must make sure to be looking at the Very latest news and data. Stories and data from 2+ days ago can be totally different than today. Again I haven’t dug deep into Sweden, but we can’t point to any country as a success where infection rate is growing not shrinking. We have seen this pattern time and again that places that seemed fine, just blow up with mounting deaths seemingly overnight.

Some countries may be hit harder than others for known or unknown factors. I’m told the elderly in Italy as a percentage is very high for instance. But one pattern is clear, lots of governments act in denial until the numbers really skyrocket or young/famous/important people die. Then there is a collective oh sh*t, and you see an about face in policy and opinion. Everyone believes they will be different until they are not.

Even news anchors and experts they have on are giving false information. Last night I saw an epidemiologist expert on saying that we shouldn’t expect it to be as bad as people are saying because on the diamond princess the death rate was 1% and 7 people had died - totally false. People assume they can stop watching eventually and things wind change. As I’ve been saying this is a very very long illness

As of yesterday when he said this in fact 10 people had died and 15 remain in serious/critical condition. It’s not a good sign for people to be in serious/critical condition for so long. Some of those are highly likely to die, and many of those who do live are highly likely to have life long handicaps and may even be ventilator bound for the rest of their lives.

As I’ve been saying this is a very very long illness. So so many people struggle with this concept. It literally takes months and months to see the impact. if someone doesnt grasp and factor this in, they will derive a very very different picture than what is happening under the surface.

In a live dynamic population, you can’t ever see the true picture because infected are sometimes unaccounted for and also the exponentially increasing influx of new cases clouds what’s happening. People usually die starting 2-3 weeks after they got sick, but it can take much longer. So the deaths you see today are outcomes from 2-3 weeks (or longer) ago infections .

With a mushrooming, exponentially growing, new # of infections, it appears that the # dead is much less significant than it really is. Just look at an exponential growth curve. As long as something is doubling at a high rate, it gives false hope and the wrong outlook.

Let’s do a little thought experiment to demonstrate this. On day 1 we have 100 people infected. We assume the infection doubles ever 7 days, and on average it takes 2 weeks to die. 10% of the infected die at exactly 2 weeks after they initially get infected and no additional people die after more than 2 weeks of becoming infected. Here is our data.

7 days in, total 200 (100 new) infected 0 dead.
14 days in, total 400 (200 new) infected 10 dead
21 days in, total 800 (400 new) infected 20 dead
28 days in, total 1600 (800 new) infected 40 dead
35 days in, total 3200 (1600 new) infected 80 dead
42 days in, total 6400 (3200 new) infected 160 dead
Assume at this point a treatment to prevent new infection is developed, but there is no cure and treatment for those infected.
49 days in, total 6400 (0 new) infected 320 dead
56 days in, total 6400 (0 new) infected 640 dead

At day 7 you could proclaim this is a nothingburger, 200 infections and no one is dying (hmmm...this happened here @trump and many others). Then, notice that at any other point in time you try and calculate death rate from infected population, it is only 1/4 of the real death rate if you allow everyone to go from infection all the way through recovery or death. The new infections drown out the scale of how many are dying. The faster the doubling time which results in a bigger influx of new cases, and the longer the delay in outcome (death or recovery), the greater this effect. Note coronavirus doubles faster and time to resolution is longer than this example. Death rate is unknown but likely less than this example.

We have exactly one example of coronavirus that is snapshotted over time, it is the most pure example to follow. The diamond princess. It is the only “fixed experiment” that we have. As opposed to other populations the DP population was exposed and infections painstakingly counted. The exposures on the DP were all essentially at the same time, over a short period of time. As we follow the DP overtime no fresh cases are being added to cloud the picture of what is happening. We can then follow the outcome of all passengers over the required weeks and months, without clouding the picture will new cases occurring. As stated currently 10 of 712 passengers have died, 15 are still serious/critical, depending how those 15 resolve we will have min 10 deaths maximum 25 deaths.

But...until ALL have resolved we cannot actually state any final death rate, just a range with a maximum and minimum. And consider how long this “experiment” has been going on and we still have no answer. In fact when all infections had occurred on the diamond princess, there were only something like 50 known cases in the entire US. Now > 100K. And still over 1/2 of the cases from the diamond princess we do not know the live/die outcome of. Let that sink In!!

Now, back to Sweden...

I’ve been trying to follow a lot of the local papers around the world to get information as close to the source as i can.


Every country will follow similar patterns, but somewhat different rates. The time it takes for cases to double is not the same everywhere. There are things that do appear highly correlated to the rate of spread though.

1) Places with large international gateway airports. Makes sense, people bring it from other countries.
2) Tends to be worse with increasing population density
3) Tends to be worse with increases shared spaces, this is likely part of the reason why NYC has blown up faster than LA or Seattle. People ride the subway vs people driving their own cars, etc.

Anyway, this post is long enough. If something is not clear let me know.
 

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