My Personal Warning Alarm On Coronavirus - 1 MILLION+ Deaths

[Castillo]

ArcGIS Dashboards

ArcGIS Dashboards

gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com

Here's a good map to follow what's going on.

The issue with all data is the incomplete data. Confirmed cases vs unconfirmed, the biggest part being no data at all due to no tests done. China says there are 80k infections right now with 3k deaths which would make it almost .4% mortality rate, but you really think there's only 80k infections in china? Which has a billion+ people? Check South Korea and how they have 7k infections but only 44 deaths. That is a .6% mortality rate. South Korea's population is 50 million so 7 in 5000 people have got it, vs in China (where it allll started) is only 1/20,000? Makes no sense to me. There has to be many many more cases in china that we don't know about. If you look at a country such as South Korea that will have much more accurate data than China, you can see that the mortality rate is much lower, as well as China's true infected numbers must be vastly off.

You were saying that USA has 100 infected but 12 deaths?

I also call bullshit on this. There was an article how BC Canada (where I'm from) has tested more people in our province of 5 Million people, than the entire United States has with 300 million.

There are definitely more infected in the US than what is stated, and the 12 death number does NOT mean that there is a 10% mortality rate.

 

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[Castillo]

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer

Updated Statistics, graphs, and data tables showing the total number of cases, cases per day, cases by country, cases outside of Hubei in China, recoveries and discharges, newly infected, active cases, outcome of closed cases: death rate vs. recovery rate for patients infected with the C0VlD-19...

www.worldometers.info

This is another great website as well. They have detailed information such as mortality rates per age, infections per gender/age

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with C0VlD-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

Check this out ^

if you're between the ages of 10-39 you have basically a .2% mortality rate.

If you're 40-49, that DOUBLES :O to .4%.

All the deaths are from the old dudes that are in their 70s+.

Nothing to worry about here folks... Move along.

 

[David Fitz]

Bill Gates was right or was he?

View: https://youtu.be/6Af6b_wyiwI

 

[ecommercewolf]

It's an expression to reflect the fact that speaking frankly about this issue is not socially acceptable. There's an enormous pressure NOT to talk honestly about it. If you do, you're painfully aware that you're going to be automatically classified in the same group as flat earthers and conspiracy theorists. There's a heavy societal pressure to censor yourself on this topic.

@James Fend right on.

Keep it up.

I think 1 million is a conservative estimate.

It's surreal to be living through this.

"It's never popular to sound the alarm"

 

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[ecommercewolf]

2. Misinformation About The FLU Comparison

Fact: No immunity yet. First contact.

Fact: Higher spread via longer "incubation" period that not only can spread during that time, but also zero symptoms so you unknowingly do not reduce exposure to others at all.

Fact: Mortality rate thus far is 3.4% by W.H.O.
All said and done, there's a crap ton of discrepancy in that number. Like still sick, critical condition, not getting tested, etc. etc.

On the low end; I think it sits at 1-2%. (bro-science guess)..

Even if let's say it's below 1%... It's still much more deadlier than the Flu .1% by a large margin. If it's really 2-3% than its the difference between a 10 bedroom mansion and a tiny home.

Imagine this:
You're sitting in under the basketball goal and a three guys are dribbling full speed to you about to dunk on you.

Guy A is really really fast, but very very small. Yeah, he'll dunk on you, but.... it's not that bad. You probably won't get knocked to the ground and be a massacred highlight.

Guy B is very slow, but very very big. You'll prob just step out the way and not even get dunked on, but if you do, you're in for a pounding.

GUY C IS BOTH VERY VERY BIG, AND VERY VERY FAST. A FREAK OF NATURE ATHLETIC... THINK LEBRON JAMES. There's a reason why he dominates the NBA.

Essentially this sentence should be re-written like this:

BEING DUNKED ON BY LEBRON JAMES IS NO WORSE THAN BEING DUNKED ON BY THAT SUPER SMALL 75LB GUY. IN A GAME, THE 75LB GUY WILL GET THE SAME AMOUNT OF DUNKS IN A GAME THAN LEBRON JAMES.

A BIG FAT FALSE AND ANOTHER BIG FAT FALSE.

To add onto this... I would look closer at South Korea's number which is 0.6%. I believe that is the more accurate number if proper containment and measures are taken.

Keep in mind... South Korea’s death rate is 0.6% because they’re actually testing people. And then quarantining to stop the spread to sensitive populations.

They are testing about 10k people per day and have installed drive through testing facilities to minimize pressure on healthcare system. Right now in the U.S. we have nowhere near the amount of testing being done or transparency which worries me.

Depending on the numbers you look at ICU percentage for C0VlD-19 is anywhere from 10-20%. Find out the number of ICU units in any given metropolitan area, do the math on current cases and factor in exponential growth and that is the true concern. ICU overcapacity of the elderly. I do agree with other people that have mentioned that if you are young you do not have too much to worry about.

Ultra Festival & SXSW have already been cancelled and that's not to mention the events that have been cancelled worldwide. These huge events would not be cancelled if this was "just the flu".

Stay ready is all i can say.

 

[loop101]

All the deaths are from the old dudes that are in their 70s+.

Nothing to worry about here folks... Move along.

My parents are in their 80s, not all of us are going to "move along". My mother was a nurse in the 50s. She told me about a secret tunnel in the hospital where she worked. It had been used to sneak out bodies during the 1918 Spanish Flu, so people wouldn't know how many were dying. She said she didn't expect either of them to survive a seasonal flu, much less this one. At least one of them goes to a doctor or hospital every week. Unless this virus is contained soon, I expect to lose one or both of my parents to it.

 

[EVMaso]

My parents are in their 80s, not all of us are going to "move along". My mother was a nurse in the 50s. She told me about a secret tunnel in the hospital where she worked. It had been used to sneak out bodies during the 1918 Spanish Flu, so people wouldn't know how many were dying. She said she didn't expect either of them to survive a seasonal flu, much less this one. At least one of them goes to a doctor or hospital every week. Unless this virus is contained soon, I expect to lose one or both of my parents to it.

This is where I'm coming from. If I get Coronoavirus, I'll be fine most likely. However I can unknowingly transmit that disease to my elderly parents or other high-risk people unknowingly.

All these people saying "don't worry" seem like they don't have any high-risk people in their lives.

 

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[Here]

Yep, I'm worried about my elderly relatives. I'm not ready to lose any of them.

 

[Primeperiwinkle]

All these people saying "don't worry" seem like they don't have any high-risk people in their lives.

Maybe they’re just not afraid of suffering or death. Most of the ppl in my life aren’t.

 

[Timmy C]

Like others have stated there are older people in my lives I worry for, I worry I could unknowingly pass this on to them. I work in a gym and those places are filthy.

Do I quit my job, and isolate myself?

It's something I am considering...I don't want to be responsible for someone I love getting very sick or worse dying.

 

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[GIlman]

South Korea has the most solid numbers of any nation to date. The current mortality (death) rate is 0.7%, but this is misleading because this is of all comers. From people sick for weeks to those who just barely got sick and we’re diagnosed today-some of which will certainly die before they recover from the illness.

What we really need is time based stratification where we break people into weekly cohort groups and follow them over time to recovery or death. Then calculate the mortality for each group. After we get multiple groups with a final disposition (recovery or death) then we can create an inter group average to get a more accurate rate.

Obviously the factors above, i.e. including all people in all phases of illness to calculate mortality, artificially lowers the death rate significantly. However, there are also undiagnosed mild cases that if included would lower the mortality rate.

truthfully, the only way to actual know is to do a proper study by finding a large group of uninfected people (proven business testing for lack of antibodies to the virus), follow them for months. See who died, then test the entire group to look for antibodies to the virus again. This way you would know every single person that had ever gotten the illness regardless of how mild or severe. Then and only then can you calculate a good reliable mortality rate.

There are some other ways to design the study, but you have to make sure you include all possible cases of the virus in your population sample.

 

[biggeemac]

I went to drop a check off with my dad today. He invited me into his house for a visit and I declined for fear of having CV. My wife, myself, and two of my daughters all sick right now. Maybe its a cold, a flu, or CV. I don't trust the federal government right now that "things are under control". And since my parents are in their 60's, I'd rather use good judgement and not trust the information coming out that "everythings under control". I think once testing really gets underway, much more light will be shined on this thing. I am fairly optimistic that there are far more infections than we are aware of, and most people will recover without an issue.

In other news, the crazies are buying up bottled water from Costco. WTF?!?! I bought $3000 worth of food and supplies appropriate to keep my two homes operational and sanitary. I'm gonna sit back and relax while things unfold.

(side note) the commercial labs in Oregon supposedly should be able to do the testing here in the next two weeks.

 

[gloriusubiquity]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDelUkpFm60


Some notes from one of this country's top experts in Epidemiology from Harvard:

• 40 - 70% of the adult population will be infected
• Most people will have no symptoms (but can still carry and spread the virus)
• Let say half the people of those infected actually show symptoms
• If that's the case, millions of people will still die due to the scale of the virus
• The percentage of people who are symptomatic goes up with age (e.g. the older you are the more likely you will show symptoms from C0VlD-19)
• We have some bounds on what to expect: This will transmit globally
• For preparation:
  • Schools will close, public gatherings will be restricted
  • Business owners/workplaces will make it easier to stay home if sick (e.g., won't count sick days and still get paid)
  • If sick, stay home and be prepared to stay home for a while
  • C0VlD-19 will not be an existential threat. Things will be awful for a while but civilization will not be brought to its knees

From Ray Dalio: (My Thoughts About the Coronavirus)

The most important assets that you need to take good care of are you and your family. As with investing, I hope that you will imagine the worst-case scenario and protect yourself against it.

 

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[SkyLake]

You're more likely to die in a car crash than of Covid 19.

Stop fear-mongering people. Take precautions and be prepared, but don't panic, it doesn't help anyone.

 

[ChrisV]

Source: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY.

 

[ChrisV]

You're more likely to die in a car crash than of Covid 19.

Stop fear-mongering people. Take precautions and be prepared, but don't panic, it doesn't help anyone.

This.

Guys, I think it's really important to be careful who you listen to on this. We really need a sober analysis of what the dangers are and aren't. On the one hand, you don't want to underprepared, but on the other hand you don't want to unnecessarily freak out. It's important to get realistic takes on what's going on

Use reputable sources that are free from sensationalism. Keep in mind that while this is a somewhat serious situation, the media has a vested interest in keeping your eyes glues too their channel. Stick with primary sources like the CDC and the WHO.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/2019-ncov-factsheet.pdf

This site is a search engine that only links to reputable sources:

Search News based on Highly Factual Reporting

Search High or Very High Factual News Sites only and ignore the fake news propaganda on the net. Only sites with High or Very High reporting are included. Each site is classified into the following biases: Left, Left-Center, Least (or Center), Right-Center, Right and Pro-Science.

factualsearch.news

 

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[ChrisV]

Wise idea to start buying some vitamin C tablets/powder.

And for the fastlaners out there, this whole corona virus is a goldmine. Maybe it's the time to start wholesaling ''anti corona virus pills''

Holy shit, I can't believe I'm reading this here. Please do not do this. You guys aren't doctors and have no right on selling any type of coronavirus treatment or prevention. If there's a legitimate treatment the CDC or WHO will underline what is effective. Right now it's basically soap and hand sanitizer. This forum is all about ethical entrepreneurship. Amazon has been pulling items that purport to be coronavirus treatments.

Amazon has banned more than one million products which claim to protect against the coronavirus - or even cure it.

The online retailer told Reuters it had also removed "tens of thousands" of overpriced health products from unscrupulous sellers.

The World Health Organisation (WHO) expressed concern about some misleading Amazon listings earlier this month, including fake treatments.

The virus, which causes C0VlD-19, has killed about 2,800 people worldwide.

The WHO said fake coronavirus claims online were causing mass confusion, and urged tech giants to combat the spread of misinformation.

A search for "coronavirus" on Amazon brought up results for face masks, disinfectant wipes and newly-published books on viral infections, revealing how some sellers are cashing in on the health crisis.

It also offered results for vitamin C boosters - a fake cure for the virus that has been widely disseminated online.

Coronavirus: Amazon removes overpriced goods and fake cures

The retail giant is removing fake cures and tackling unreasonable price hikes amid public concern.

www.bbc.com

Guys come on. This is the type of stuff that gives capitalism a bad rap. Let's go back a few months:

HOT! - How to (ETHICALLY?) Profit Off of Natural Disasters

Don't. Seriously. Don't. With Hurricane Dorian bearing down on Florida, as Cat 4, there will be many people out there who gouge prices with the rationale of scarcity and demand. Good, ethical people don't do this. And I hope its pretty obvious to everyone here that this is not the way to...

www.thefastlaneforum.com

 

[Trevor Kuntz]

If you get sick, a hospital isn't going to be able to do much for you, especially if you aren't one of the first to get sick. You need to be prepared to monitor your own health numbers.

First, it is helpful to know if you are getting sick. I bought a temporal artery thermometer (scans your forehead and is considered as accurate as an oral thermometer or rectal thermometer) and am taking daily baseline readings. The likely first sign would be a fever, so I'm monitoring for an uptick of more than 1 degree F.

Second, if you do get sick, you need to monitor your lung function, because the biggest risk with C0VlD-19 is ARDS. For this, a pulse oximeter is an inexpensive and simple way to measure blood oxygen levels. For me personally, I have a baseline between 98% and 100%. If I get sick, I'll just self-quarantine and ride it out with fluids and fever meds and continue monitoring my blood pressure and blood oxygen levels. If my blood oxygen level falls below 90%, that is when I will know that shit is about to hit the fan for me personally and that is the only time I think I should attempt to get to a hospital and hope they still have oxygen available.

The chance of me getting ARDS is pretty low, even if I get the virus, but I will at least have the means to monitor my own health in the meantime.

 

[BellaPippin]

My whole goal about the thread is to raise awareness to things from perspectives that they may not have seen. The end goal: To help people. I risk every bit of looking like a Complete Fool to do it.

Yes, there are many i's and t's that are not dotted and crossed in my paragraphs, but I think some may be overlooking the title of the chapter.

You do look like a complete fool if you start a thread like this without your i's and t's dotted. There's more "awareness" being spread than virus at this point, I'm sick with THAT. There's another thread to discuss this as well.

Therefore, I'm going to abstain from this thread going forward.

Don't forget the 30 second rule and the sanitizer when you WASH YOUR HANDS FROM THIS THREAD

 

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[Rivoli]

Coronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer

Updated Statistics, graphs, and data tables showing the total number of cases, cases per day, cases by country, cases outside of Hubei in China, recoveries and discharges, newly infected, active cases, outcome of closed cases: death rate vs. recovery rate for patients infected with the C0VlD-19...

www.worldometers.info

This is another great website as well. They have detailed information such as mortality rates per age, infections per gender/age

Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with C0VlD-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, China

www.worldometers.info

Check this out ^

if you're between the ages of 10-39 you have basically a .2% mortality rate.

If you're 40-49, that DOUBLES :O to .4%.

All the deaths are from the old dudes that are in their 70s+.

Nothing to worry about here folks... Move along.

Literally what I’ve been saying.
It’s just like the flu. People die from the flu all the time. But the stock market doesn’t crash

 

[ChrisV]

Therefore, I'm going to abstain from this thread going forward.

Don't forget the 30 second rule and the sanitizer when you WASH YOUR HANDS FROM THIS THREAD

Lmfao.. i freakin love this girl

+Rep if we ever get it back

 

[Rivoli]

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iDelUkpFm60


Some notes from one of this country's top experts in Epidemiology from Harvard:

• 40 - 70% of the adult population will be infected
• Most people will have no symptoms (but can still carry and spread the virus)
• Let say half the people of those infected actually show symptoms
• If that's the case, millions of people will still die due to the scale of the virus
• The percentage of people who are symptomatic goes up with age (e.g. the older you are the more likely you will show symptoms from C0VlD-19)
• We have some bounds on what to expect: This will transmit globally
• For preparation:
  • Schools will close, public gatherings will be restricted
  • Business owners/workplaces will make it easier to stay home if sick (e.g., won't count sick days and still get paid)
  • If sick, stay home and be prepared to stay home for a while
  • C0VlD-19 will not be an existential threat. Things will be awful for a while but civilization will not be brought to its knees

From Ray Dalio: (My Thoughts About the Coronavirus)

That guy is a retard.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-r...onavirus-could-infect-60-of-global-population

He leaves out (or its edited out) that that number is if we did absolutely nothing to curtail its spread.

 

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[BizyDad]

Don't forget the 30 second rule and the sanitizer when you WASH YOUR HANDS FROM THIS THREAD

Lmfao.. i freakin love this girl

+Rep if we ever get it back

Savage.

 

[biggeemac]

That guy is a retard.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-r...onavirus-could-infect-60-of-global-population

He leaves out (or its edited out) that that number is if we did absolutely nothing to curtail its spread.

Agreed. No awareness, no intervention, no sanitizers, no increase in other forms of sanitation, no isolation.....this is what COULD happen if EVERYONE did NOTHING at all.

 

[Rivoli]

Agreed. No awareness, no intervention, no sanitizers, no increase in other forms of sanitation, no isolation.....this is what COULD happen if EVERYONE did NOTHING at all.

What’s infuriating is how irresponsible our mainstream media has become. It’s all about clicks and views now. They literally stand for nothing, so they can post interviews like that without a measured context so posters like in This thread freak out and start hoarding toilet paper

 

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[biggeemac]

View attachment 30922

View attachment 30923

View attachment 30924

Source: WHO, CDC, ECDC, NHC, DXY.

Love this graphic. It shows how hysterical we have become over this. I am not advocating a complete disregard of increasing preparedness or sanitation. But society is being very unreasonably fearful, which will probably result in far more deaths.

 

[gloriusubiquity]

That guy is a retard.

https://www.usnews.com/news/world-r...onavirus-could-infect-60-of-global-population

He leaves out (or its edited out) that that number is if we did absolutely nothing to curtail its spread.

Might be a little too hasty to conclude that the guy is a retard but I agree 60% seems a little high.

I think it was just more of a warning of what could happen and to be sufficiently worried.

Worry too little, and this thing could spread. Worry too much, and you get panic shopping for toilet paper at Costco.

Here's a video that shows how if we adjust the exponential growth constant it affects the total amount of people infected dramatically (at around 7:40):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg


In essence, if people are sufficiently worried then the rates will drastically cut down. If people aren't worried at all (e.g. don't wash their hands, travel even when sick, etc.) then this thing could spread to those 40-70% numbers that the so called retard describes.

 

[Rivoli]

Might be a little too hasty to conclude that the guy is a retard but I agree 60% seems a little high.

I think it was just more of a warning of what could happen and to be sufficiently worried.

Worry too little, and this thing could spread. Worry too much, and you get panic shopping for toilet paper at Costco.

Here's a video that shows how if we adjust the exponential growth constant it affects the total amount of people infected dramatically (at around 7:40):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg


In essence, if people are sufficiently worried then the rates will drastically cut down. If people aren't worried at all (e.g. don't wash their hands, travel even when sick, etc.) then this thing could spread to those 40-70% numbers that the so called retard describes.

60% a LITTLE to high?

Come on man, not even 0.6% of China got it.

 

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[bilkar1985]

My guess is 5mil. people are going to die in total. I know it sounds crazy like a number, but in the western world there are many people who are over 60+ and many of those have problems.

We shouldn't forget also that if someone has had the virus and is in this age group, probably his living days will get less.

Given the current growth in population every day, the total population would see the same number after at most a year, as this age group (60-65+ ) usually do not have children.

Anyway, time will tell.

Stay healthy everyone and protect yourself and loved ones.

 

[Rivoli]

My guess is 5mil. people are going to die in total. I know it sounds crazy like a number, but in the western world there are many people who are over 60+ and many of those have problems.

We shouldn't forget also that if someone has had the virus and is in this age group, probably his living days will get less.

Given the current growth in population every day, the total population would see the same number after at most a year, as this age group (60-65+ ) usually do not have children.

Anyway, time will tell.

Stay healthy everyone and protect yourself and loved ones.

Thats a really dumb guess.