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HOT TOPIC My Personal Warning Alarm On Coronavirus - 1 MILLION+ Deaths

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James Fend

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I want to get this out there as soon as possible and I will go back and post into the thread some of my supporting perspectives but...

1 Million+ people will die from Coronavirus after it's all said and done. Please please take ACTION.

Here's what ACTION means... it does not mean wash your hands and bullshit (yeah do that, but we are past preventative stage), to increase the chances of not dying or being sick as a dog for weeks... we must play Offense.

Right now, it's "go into the hospital when you show symptoms and suspect Corona".. That's Bullshit. That is too late.

RAISE YOUR SELF AWARENESS & GO IN AS SOON AS SOMETHING SHOWS A BUMP IN CHANGE FROM BASELINE. Whether that's blood pressure, thirst, headache, couch, etc. etc. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU ARE "SICK".

When a foreign thing enters your body, your body will immediately give a reaction to it. Go in when you get this first initial reaction. If you blow it off or not aware enough to notice, and let the virus replicate and build enough in numbers to the point where you are actually feeling sick, then it's too late unless you want to be sicks for weeks, be near death, die, and everybody in your family going the same exact things.

"buT iF YouR yoUNg, yoU woNT Die" = Bullshit.

Think about this: you are sick as F*ck in the hospital bed, as well as other members in your family, and someone in your family dies. Yet, you are completely out of it cause you're sick, and although you don't die, you couldn't say your goodbyes.

Anyways, I will edit this later to add in my thoughts....

I'm not here to argue about the virus, try to prove my points, try to convince you I am some all knowing God, or this or that. I am truly giving out a plea for humanity with this. MJ will hate me and kick me off the forum, but I will try to bump this every day with more of what I see.

For the Record, at the time of this writing:
US Deaths = ~10 (some in critical condition and on the brink of)
US Infected Confirmed = ~122
Infected NYC Confirmed = 22

This is as of March 5, 2020. 8:37pm Pacific.
 

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James Fend

James Fend

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In 9-10 days.. New York City will be at 10,000+ infected. By mid-March, we will be Maximum Fear level (in the stock market sense anyways).

EDIT 8:15pm:
10,000 infected. I removed "confirmed" as I got ahead of myself. Being "confirmed" will greatly depend on testing availability. There will be a rather big lag from actual infected and those positive tests:

1) Incubation and symptoms are not immediate.

2) Difficulty to get Tests completed. Time delay, shortage of tests, etc.

Once #2 is squared away, there will be a spike of confirmed. Will that happen in 9-10 days, possibly, not sure. If #2 and #1 tie in around the same time, then the spike will be quite large.

I guess... only in hindsight will we be able to say "there likely was 10,000 infected at that point".

However, regardless of exact number... The general point is: The number is unimaginably "no F*cking way" high especially from where we are today.
 
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loop101

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In 9-10 days.. New York City will be at 10,000+ confirmed infected. By mid-March, we will be Maximum Fear level (in the stock market sense anyways).
If the number of infected doubles every 6 days, and currently there are 22 cases in NY, wouldn't there be about 66 cases in 9 days?

22 * 2 = 44 (6 days)
44 * 1.5 = 66 (another 3 days)

It should take 54 days to get to 10k (9 doubles at 6 days each).
 
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James Fend

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The United States is re-playing China EXACTLY all over again.

10 deaths = Don't panic. Low risk. Wash your hands.
100 deaths = Wash your hands. Think about remote work.
1,000 deaths = Schools shut down. Curfew laws in some cities.

By 1,000 deaths, it's too late. We will be right back exactly where China is today.

Yes, the growth and death rate has topped and slowed there. A big part because they had the culturally luxury of wearing masks (and supply) AND they shut Hong Kong and China DOWN ENTIRELY for weeks.

Before the "MaSKs DonT HelP You FroM GetTinG It"...

Masks by fact, help prevent one that is sick from spreading it out. Meaning; you walk around for 2 weeks spreading it all around because of "masks don't prevent you from getting it" yet unknowingly because of shortage of testing available and difficulty of getting it done, you infect EVERYBODY in those two weeks.

Fact: Masks DO help. Don't let the "stay calm" government people tell you some bullshit, think about the hidden reasonings they have for saying that to you.

Except,... China, Korea, etc. also SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN way faster and quicker than us (yet look how significant their blow IS and CONTINUES to be). We have yet to even publicly say this "might get bad" except for WHO (who are getting carry the social stigma as THAT guy.. aka the guy with the Jesus sign yelling at you on the street).
 
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James Fend

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If the number of infected doubles every 6 days, and currently there are 22 cases in NY, wouldn't there be about 66 cases in 9 days?
I'm not really here to discuss the fundamentals for me being THAT guy right now.. But your question is a genuine question on my logic so for sure...

My reply is think about this math:
~10 US deaths (some in critical condition)
~100 confirmed infected

= 10% (give or take rough guess)

Everywhere else in the world... it's 3%.

WHY are we so much higher? Or... are we??
Unless....


The numbers are wrong. 10 dead bodies... can't really argue that. However, the number of tested infected? Hmmmm......
 
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James Fend

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Just great... Now CNN JUST posts as their main headline "The US is not ready for a massive breakout" from some town hall meeting.

Just know... everything I say in my warning is from my own perspective on seeing things unfold out and it ringing alarms. I hope what they are saying on that town hall is the same AND the government takes action.

But unlikely not, because right now... I am THAT guy. And those guys on that Town Hall are likely being seen by the main public as THOSE guys.

Until they're not...
 

Here

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Right now, it's "go into the hospital when you show symptoms and suspect Corona".. That's Bullshit. That is too late.

RAISE YOUR SELF AWARENESS & GO IN AS SOON AS SOMETHING SHOWS A BUMP IN CHANGE FROM BASELINE. Whether that's blood pressure, thirst, headache, couch, etc. etc. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU ARE "SICK".
You go into the hospital at that point, they'll send you right back home. Not sure what the point would be.
 

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Just great... Now CNN JUST posts as their main headline "The US is not ready for a massive breakout" from some town hall meeting.

Just know... everything I say in my warning is from my own perspective on seeing things unfold out and it ringing alarms. I hope what they are saying on that town hall is the same AND the government takes action.

But unlikely not, because right now... I am THAT guy. And those guys on that Town Hall are likely being seen by the main public as THOSE guys.

Until they're not...
I'm more confused now, I don't know what "THAT guy" and "THOSE guys" means. I think there are 233 confirmed infections in the US, and 12 deaths. That's a death-rate of 5.15%. If we assume there are more infected, then the death-rate goes down. For example, with 5x the infections, the death-rate is 1.03%.

I'm not saying there wont be millions of deaths in the US, but 10k in 10 days seems quicker than I expect.

I expect this virus to have a multitude of small outbreaks accross America, and if it gets bad in any one city, everyone will stay inside their homes until it is safe. If people lose their jobs, I expect the government to give extended unemployment benefits until the pandemic threat is over.
 

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I don't know what "THAT guy" and "THOSE guys" means.
It's an expression to reflect the fact that speaking frankly about this issue is not socially acceptable. There's an enormous pressure NOT to talk honestly about it. If you do, you're painfully aware that you're going to be automatically classified in the same group as flat earthers and conspiracy theorists. There's a heavy societal pressure to censor yourself on this topic.

@James Fend right on.

Keep it up.

I think 1 million is a conservative estimate.

It's surreal to be living through this.
 
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James Fend

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I'm more confused now, I don't know what "THAT guy" and "THOSE guys" means. I think there are 233 confirmed infections in the US, and 12 deaths. That's a death-rate of 5.15%. If we assume there are more infected, then the death-rate goes down. For example, with 5x the infections, the death-rate is 1.03%.

I'm not saying there wont be millions of deaths in the US, but 10k in 10 days seems quicker than I expect.

I expect this virus to have a multitude of small outbreaks accross America, and if it gets bad in any one city, everyone will stay inside their homes until it is safe. If people lose their jobs, I expect the government to give extended unemployment benefits until the pandemic threat is over.
With all due respect, I'm going to abstain from the convo. I'm not really looking to discuss or go back and forth about the fundamentals.

Note: The numbers change FAST and only in one direction. So fast that they changed after my post and right after your reply.

That in itself should be a worrying factor... Numbers like these should NOT be changing that FAST unless we are exponentially growing.
 

Einfamilienhaus

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I'm not here to argue about the virus, try to prove my points, try to convince you I
If you are not willing to deliver real arguments dont waste time.

Now CNN JUST posts as their main headline "The US is not ready for a massive breakout" from some town hall meeting.
Show me one country which is seriously prepared for a massive breakout.

There's a heavy societal pressure to censor yourself on this topic
Who puts this social pressure on you? Because you feel sometimes awkward or insecure about something it doesn't mean it is the fault of the environment.
 

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I was reading about the virus, alot of people have it and don't even know, its just a problem for people with bad immune systems, I might of just had it a week ago. Not to worried

Claim: ‘It only kills the elderly, so younger people can relax’

Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from Covid-19.

Coronavirus Cases:
98,424
view by country
Deaths:
3,386
Recovered:
55,640


Wise idea to start buying some vitamin C tablets/powder.

And for the fastlaners out there, this whole corona virus is a goldmine. Maybe it's the time to start wholesaling ''anti corona virus pills''
 
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James Fend

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Our President has a hard dilemma to make in the coming days:

1) Get our country to shut down and 99% put it into recession and jeopardize election

2) Let death toll rise where there is no other option (aka Italy once it broke 100)

We are at 13 now. +1 since I posted this. With 8 in serious critical condition.

It won't be that long before we break the 100 death count..

Ironically.. if he does #1 he would actually win the elections despite an almost for certain recession. He does #2, it would go the other way for votes depending on how bad the numbers run up and people begin discussing just how much could have prevented if #1 was done sooner.
 
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James Fend

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Again, not trying to argue. However, I appreciate the perspectives and thoughts... @Here @Einfamilienhaus @loop101 @sparechange

I could be incredibly wrong, and you guys could be incredibly right. In which case, feel free to totally hurl insults at me here on this thread... in a month! lol..

However, I think an unseen benefit is: It also records and shows the exact general public sentiment at the exact current time and stage of the cycle we are in now.

My take is: These same sentiments may not sound nearly the same here in a week.

@loop101 - I revised that 10,000 confirmed to infected with some additional stuff. I can see where some confusion would be.. none the less, I still think 4,000+ "confirmed" easy which is still a crazy number to imagine from today. (with the other 6,000 infected in 'incubation' period lag)
 
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I was reading about the virus, alot of people have it and don't even know, its just a problem for people with bad immune systems, I might of just had it a week ago. Not to worried

Claim: ‘It only kills the elderly, so younger people can relax’

Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from Covid-19.

Coronavirus Cases:
98,424
view by country
Deaths:
3,386
Recovered:
55,640


Wise idea to start buying some vitamin C tablets/powder.

And for the fastlaners out there, this whole corona virus is a goldmine. Maybe it's the time to start wholesaling ''anti corona virus pills''
I was over in Asia in late January and decided to come back early but I waited too long to order a ton of face masks. I ordered 500 and sold them all in a few days, then I tried to order thousands and not a single distributor had any left that I could find. I was kicking myself. Could've made tens of thousands.
 

Timmy C

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I was over in Asia in late January and decided to come back early but I waited too long to order a ton of face masks. I ordered 500 and sold them all in a few days, then I tried to order thousands and not a single distributor had any left that I could find. I was kicking myself. Could've made tens of thousands.
Same.

I couldnt keep up with orders and within not even 2 days i was sold out. I have more to sell but im keeping them for family.
 

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You're underestimating exponential growth. This statement isn't an attack on your intelligence. We aren't hardwired to understand exponential growth, and the projections are horrifying.

Of course we can't produce test kits exponentially, so the confirmed numbers won't reflect the following projection, but the math is pretty clear. We're doubling cases (outside China where the #s are more reliable) every 4 - 5 days. That's 6 - 7 doublings every month. We're at 17,000 cases outside China as of 3/5/20. 25 days to go in the month, so 5 - 6 doublings.

Assuming the trend holds:

We'll be at ~500k-1 million cases by the end of March.

Double 5 to 6 more times and we're at 50-100 million cases by the end of April. This means at least 3 million bodies by mid May.

500m to 1 billion cases by end of May. 30 million bodies by mid June, at the very least.

Can we buck the trend?

Most likely, but the end result is ultimately the same.

The terror of seeing bodies piling up in mass graves will keep people from congregating, which will limit the spread. I think this will shift the curve to the right, but not ultimately change the final #s. People are going to have to work and shop for essentials, so some amount of congregation is inevitable. This means we'll continue to have spread in localized pockets, and as soon as people travel so will the virus.

Here's a new prediction for the thread: the hysteria from this outbreak will be used to do away with cash. The governments of the world cannot resist using a tragedy to expand their power, and they've been salivating at the idea of going purely digital currency for years. What better excuse than transmission on cash?
 

Johnny boy

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You're underestimating exponential growth. This statement isn't an attack on your intelligence. We aren't hardwired to understand exponential growth, and the projections are horrifying.

Of course we can't produce test kits exponentially, so the confirmed numbers won't reflect the following projection, but the math is pretty clear. We're doubling cases (outside China where the #s are more reliable) every 4 - 5 days. That's 6 - 7 doublings every month. We're at 17,000 cases outside China as of 3/5/20. 25 days to go in the month, so 5 - 6 doublings.

Assuming the trend holds:

We'll be at ~500k-1 million cases by the end of March.

Double 5 to 6 more times and we're at 50-100 million cases by the end of April. This means at least 3 million bodies by mid May.

500m to 1 billion cases by end of May. 30 million bodies by mid June, at the very least.

Can we buck the trend?

Most likely, but the end result is ultimately the same.

The terror of seeing bodies piling up in mass graves will keep people from congregating, which will limit the spread. I think this will shift the curve to the right, but not ultimately change the final #s. People are going to have to work and shop for essentials, so some amount of congregation is inevitable. This means we'll continue to have spread in localized pockets, and as soon as people travel so will the virus.

Here's a new prediction for the thread: the hysteria from this outbreak will be used to do away with cash. The governments of the world cannot resist using a tragedy to expand their power, and they've been salivating at the idea of going purely digital currency for years. What better excuse than transmission on cash?
How much do you want to wager on that? I'll bet $5,000 there are under 30 million bodies by June 15. Care to take me up on it?
 

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Take half a day to stock up a months supply of food and essential gear.

Then get back to work.

A hospital is the last place I would want to go if I felt "something" - they will pack you in with 100s of other people who feel sick also.

The best way to not panic and keep your business running is to just do some basic preparation and then focus on what you control.

I found myself getting concerned too but then I did a big shop, got some essential gear, and now I have stopped reading the news every day wondering what will happen.

Focus on what you control right now and keep your eyes on what matters when it comes to your biz.
 

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James Fend

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Hmm... it would be wise for me to reply to the genuine questions. I have zero problems with having good talks with perspectives that are opposite of mine! It's just there are some where the underlying context of the questions are more personal jabs than genuine questions and/or going down a rabbit hole that is mostly irrelevant to the main goal: raise awareness from some very alarming things.

Anyways... so.. replying back now lol.

If the number of infected doubles every 6 days, and currently there are 22 cases in NY, wouldn't there be about 66 cases in 9 days?

22 * 2 = 44 (6 days)
44 * 1.5 = 66 (another 3 days)

It should take 54 days to get to 10k (9 doubles at 6 days each).
I think...
1) more people have it then realize
2) the density of NYC factors into "more reach" per infected.

But I absolutely get what you're saying. To throw an even bigger monkey wrench, you'd then have to subtract the ones that die and the ones that heal who no longer can spread it but still considered having be "infected" at some time lol.


You go into the hospital at that point, they'll send you right back home. Not sure what the point would be.
Testing.

I get it man, I do. But it's not about you nor I. It's about the family member that we all have that fits in the high mortality rate category. If you know you got it, and you're cleared healthy, then you'll take extra pre-caution before you go around grandpa or in my case my parents who are both older now.

And also, not unknowingly, spreading it to others.


I'm not saying there wont be millions of deaths in the US, but 10k in 10 days seems quicker than I expect.

I expect this virus to have a multitude of small outbreaks accross America, and if it gets bad in any one city, everyone will stay inside their homes until it is safe. If people lose their jobs, I expect the government to give extended unemployment benefits until the pandemic threat is over.
Indeed. I don't think China (which our government is taking the same 'downplaying' playbook) thought it would spread that fast either.

But I absolutely agree with you. Pockets. Mainly imo, where winter lasts longer.. Northwest, Northeast, some Southeast, mountain cities. I also agree, there will be govt. assistance for hardship at some point as well.


Most people who are not elderly and do not have underlying health conditions will not become critically ill from Covid-19.
Totally correct. I think my main argument here is it's more so for the one or two family members we all have that fit in that high mortality rate category. If you know for SURE, you definitely won't be going near grandpa.


1 million dead in the world or the US?

And is that in the next 6 months, 1 year, 5 years?
Great question man... Man, I wish I knew. I'm just decent at connecting dots, terrible at seeing anything beforehand!

My main objective was to shine light on that; I don't think this is going to be significantly more impacting than H1, Ebola, Zika, Swine, etc. or anything this century.

But my hunch: Depending on what countries it gets to.. 1 Million in a Year is low end globally. It could wipe out 100,000 easily alone in Africa and many other places where healthcare is lacking.
 
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James Fend

James Fend

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Take half a day to stock up a months supply of food and essential gear.

Then get back to work.
Agreed. My only thing is Testing. I'd want to personally know to give any family member or people I came close to that fit the higher mortality rate an early warning that "hey take your old butt to the hospital if you start feeling sick, don't play around you old stubborn fart!" or "stay the F away from me, I got it!"

And by "old", I mean anybody over 50. I personally don't think 50 is old, but I think anybody 50 or older will have to take a nice week or two of good ol' bed ridden sickness misery that could be possibly avoided.
 
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James Fend

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You are probably not wrong about the death count, but I don't see it as a reason to panic. It's not much worse than a common flu. The flu kills each year over half a million people worldwide and I don't see anyone going crazy about it. I don't see how is this any different
This.. I will have to completely disagree with. My thoughts on this isn't towards you personally @arl but more so at how social conditioning for control works (in this case by governments), so the rant isn't at you I promise lol.

1. 'Panic' is incorrect and Government beats this word into social conditioning.

DO NOT MIX FEAR AND PANIC TOGETHER. FEAR IS AN EMOTION, PANIC IS UNCONTROLLED BEHAVIOR. TWO DIFFERENT THINGS.

I am not in "panic". Panic is out of control. I am in full control. I am 110% logical. I am emotionally stable. In fact, I am beyond those three, and I am in 'Progressive forward thinking' level: sitting in some good sized King Cash, analyzing, and getting ready to buy a ton of cheap stocks and crypto at public's Max Fear level.

I am 100% the opposite of panic.

I have been shot at in my young buck teen days. I have seen a massacre of 50+ people from an AR-15 out of a hotel. I have been through alot of stuff in life. And trust me; what I write in logic IS NOT PANIC.

The government is who wants the general public to label people like me, to label the people buying waters and toilet paper, etc.

We are pre-cautious, we have fear, uncertainty, and doubt... But far from Out of Control.


See the term PANIC is socially conditioned to be used as almost a "personal jab" in order to control society. So the outliers like me get called "dude quit panicking".

The ironic thing about all this is that, those that labeled the people stocking up a bit as PANIC PEOPLE will actually be the people in true Panic. Panic behavior would be fighting over the last supply of goods because they're out of control. Pre-cautious are not fighting over anything right now. We are not freaking out about not finding toilet paper, we'll just go to another store tomorrow after work. PANIC is people taking off from work (once and if this thing gets bad) to fight other people in the crowd for the last water. That's UNCONTROL.

Humans by nature are EXTREMELY HYPO-CRITICAL. This is a Prime Example.
 
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James Fend

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You are probably not wrong about the death count, but I don't see it as a reason to panic. It's not much worse than a common flu. The flu kills each year over half a million people worldwide and I don't see anyone going crazy about it. I don't see how is this any different
2. Misinformation About The FLU Comparison

Fact: No immunity yet. First contact.

Fact: Higher spread via longer "incubation" period that not only can spread during that time, but also zero symptoms so you unknowingly do not reduce exposure to others at all.

Fact: Mortality rate thus far is 3.4% by W.H.O.

All said and done, there's a crap ton of discrepancy in that number. Like still sick, critical condition, not getting tested, etc. etc.

On the low end; I think it sits at 1-2%. (bro-science guess)..

Even if let's say it's below 1%... It's still much more deadlier than the Flu .1% by a large margin. If it's really 2-3% than its the difference between a 10 bedroom mansion and a tiny home.


Imagine this:
You're sitting in under the basketball goal and a three guys are dribbling full speed to you about to dunk on you.

Guy A is really really fast, but very very small. Yeah, he'll dunk on you, but.... it's not that bad. You probably won't get knocked to the ground and be a massacred highlight.

Guy B is very slow, but very very big. You'll prob just step out the way and not even get dunked on, but if you do, you're in for a pounding.

GUY C IS BOTH VERY VERY BIG, AND VERY VERY FAST. A FREAK OF NATURE ATHLETIC... THINK LEBRON JAMES. There's a reason why he dominates the NBA.

Essentially this sentence should be re-written like this:

BEING DUNKED ON BY LEBRON JAMES IS NO WORSE THAN BEING DUNKED ON BY THAT SUPER SMALL 75LB GUY. IN A GAME, THE 75LB GUY WILL GET THE SAME AMOUNT OF DUNKS IN A GAME THAN LEBRON JAMES.

A BIG FAT FALSE AND ANOTHER BIG FAT FALSE.
 

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Fact: Mortality rate thus far is 3.4% by W.H.O.
All said and done, there's a crap ton of discrepancy in that number. Like still sick, critical condition, not getting tested, etc. etc.

On the low end; I think it sits at 1-2%. (bro-science guess)..

Even if let's say it's below 1%... It's still much more deadlier than the Flu .1% by a large margin. If it's really 2-3% than its the difference between a 10 bedroom mansion and a tiny home.
I don't know where and how the WHO calculated the number. It seems to match deaths divided by infected cases. However, of those infected now some might still die. I think the number could be even higher. If I base my estimations on Italy alone, since I trust their numbers more than those of China. They have 144 deaths and 414 cured. That's a 25% death rate from all 'closed' cases.
 

MJ DeMarco

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Since this thread is full of opinion and conjecture, I'll offer a voice of counter reason also based on conjecture: I'm prepared for the worst, but I'm gonna speculate that it blows over by the summertime.

The key metric (country) I'm watching is South Korea which very much mimics Western civilization in terms of work, industry, and freedoms.
 

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The key metric (country) I'm watching is South Korea
Agreed. Another interesting study is Singapore as it is hot and fairly humid there right now so ‘should’ test the theory of the virus dying in those conditions. (Which so far it is still spreading)
 
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Except,... China, Korea, etc. also SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN way faster and quicker than us (yet look how significant their blow IS and CONTINUES to be). We have yet to even publicly say this "might get bad" except for WHO (who are getting carry the social stigma as THAT guy.. aka the guy with the Jesus sign yelling at you on the street).
Dude. China shut everything down in February. This virus started in NOVEMBER. We could thank the retarded Chinese government for jailing the initial doctors that tried to raise awareness rather than listening to them.
 

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