You’re a bit hostile, dude.Thats a really dumb guess.
We’re all here to simply discuss. I’m not sure what the attitude is all about.
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Free registration at the forum removes this block.You’re a bit hostile, dude.Thats a really dumb guess.
Thats a really dumb guess.
Thats a really dumb guess.
He's not though, unfortunately. I think those numbers are with the containment methods; which they've figured out there's not much they can do about.That guy is a retard.
https://www.usnews.com/news/world-r...onavirus-could-infect-60-of-global-population
He leaves out (or its edited out) that that number is if we did absolutely nothing to curtail its spread.
No way Ebola was just as contagious as Corona is now. I’m calling BS on this graph.
@MJ DeMarco boot this guy
I went to drop a check off with my dad today. He invited me into his house for a visit and I declined for fear of having CV. My wife, myself, and two of my daughters all sick right now. Maybe its a cold, a flu, or CV. I don't trust the federal government right now that "things are under control". And since my parents are in their 60's, I'd rather use good judgement and not trust the information coming out that "everythings under control". I think once testing really gets underway, much more light will be shined on this thing. I am fairly optimistic that there are far more infections than we are aware of, and most people will recover without an issue.
In other news, the crazies are buying up bottled water from Costco. WTF?!?! I bought $3000 worth of food and supplies appropriate to keep my two homes operational and sanitary. I'm gonna sit back and relax while things unfold.
(side note) the commercial labs in Oregon supposedly should be able to do the testing here in the next two weeks.
I want to get this out there as soon as possible and I will go back and post into the thread some of my supporting perspectives but...
1 Million+ people will die from Coronavirus after it's all said and done. Please please take ACTION.
Here's what ACTION means... it does not mean wash your hands and bullshit (yeah do that, but we are past preventative stage), to increase the chances of not dying or being sick as a dog for weeks... we must play Offense.
Right now, it's "go into the hospital when you show symptoms and suspect Corona".. That's Bullshit. That is too late.
RAISE YOUR SELF AWARENESS & GO IN AS SOON AS SOMETHING SHOWS A BUMP IN CHANGE FROM BASELINE. Whether that's blood pressure, thirst, headache, couch, etc. etc. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU ARE "SICK".
When a foreign thing enters your body, your body will immediately give a reaction to it. Go in when you get this first initial reaction. If you blow it off or not aware enough to notice, and let the virus replicate and build enough in numbers to the point where you are actually feeling sick, then it's too late unless you want to be sicks for weeks, be near death, die, and everybody in your family going the same exact things.
"buT iF YouR yoUNg, yoU woNT Die" = Bullshit.
Think about this: you are sick as F*ck in the hospital bed, as well as other members in your family, and someone in your family dies. Yet, you are completely out of it cause you're sick, and although you don't die, you couldn't say your goodbyes.
Anyways, I will edit this later to add in my thoughts....
I'm not here to argue about the virus, try to prove my points, try to convince you I am some all knowing God, or this or that. I am truly giving out a plea for humanity with this. MJ will hate me and kick me off the forum, but I will try to bump this every day with more of what I see.
For the Record, at the time of this writing:
US Deaths = ~10 (some in critical condition and on the brink of)
US Infected Confirmed = ~122
Infected NYC Confirmed = 22
This is as of March 5, 2020. 8:37pm Pacific.
I believe you will be completely wrong.
My prediction is that death's in the USA wont be more than 20k. Im not here to discuss how bad even one death is ( it is).
IT has to do with more than health or viruses. The fact the whole world has stopped for this bring a whole different message.
Look at every other mass hysteria virus, Ebola, SARS, the Spanish flu and by the numbers this is one of the weakest ones.
Brian Suh 2.0. I heart @BellaPippin on her high horse. Savage.Can we kill this thread already it's like Brian Suh 2.0. The main thread is of much higher quality. @Fox
Wow really, the common flu? This is the pandemic of our lifetime and is very seriousYou are probably not wrong about the death count, but I don't see it as a reason to panic. It's not much worse than a common flu. The flu kills each year over half a million people worldwide and I don't see anyone going crazy about it. I don't see how is this any different
Thank you for taking the time. You literally just came in and lifted ALL of the anxiety right off from under me. It's comforting to know I shouldn't be worried even though the world is at a standstill. I'm just going to focus on what I CAN control! ACTIONCoronavirus Cases: Statistics and Charts - Worldometer
Updated Statistics, graphs, and data tables showing the total number of cases, cases per day, cases by country, cases outside of Hubei in China, recoveries and discharges, newly infected, active cases, outcome of closed cases: death rate vs. recovery rate for patients infected with the C0VlD-19...www.worldometers.info
This is another great website as well. They have detailed information such as mortality rates per age, infections per gender/age
Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer
Age, sex, demographic characteristics such as pre-existing conditions, of coronavirus cases of patients infected with C0VlD-19 and deaths, as observed in studies on the virus outbreak originating from Wuhan, Chinawww.worldometers.info
Check this out ^
if you're between the ages of 10-39 you have basically a .2% mortality rate.
If you're 40-49, that DOUBLES :O to .4%.
All the deaths are from the old dudes that are in their 70s+.
Nothing to worry about here folks... Move along.
Wow really, the common flu? This is the pandemic of our lifetime and is very serious
What @James Fend predicted here early March. Where are you James?In 9-10 days.. New York City will be at 10,000+ infected. By mid-March, we will be Maximum Fear level (in the stock market sense anyways).
EDIT 8:15pm:
10,000 infected. I removed "confirmed" as I got ahead of myself. Being "confirmed" will greatly depend on testing availability. There will be a rather big lag from actual infected and those positive tests:
1) Incubation and symptoms are not immediate.
2) Difficulty to get Tests completed. Time delay, shortage of tests, etc.
Once #2 is squared away, there will be a spike of confirmed. Will that happen in 9-10 days, possibly, not sure. If #2 and #1 tie in around the same time, then the spike will be quite large.
I guess... only in hindsight will we be able to say "there likely was 10,000 infected at that point".
However, regardless of exact number... The general point is: The number is unimaginably "no F*cking way" high especially from where we are today.
I call bullshit on the hysteria and manipulation while watching my back at the same time. An old sailing proverb would apply well here: Always one hand for the boat and one hand for yourself.
A few facts to put things in perspective:
According to the CDC, roughly 50 MILLION people worldwide contracted the FLU over the past five months.
That’s right. The flu. 50 million people. That works out to over 300,000 people PER DAY, which is pretty typical for a flu season.
Moreover, the CDC estimates that more than 50,000 people DIED of the flu during this past season.
But where was the mass panic? Where was the stock market crash? Where was the hysteria?
There's more to this story, obviously, but the main point is that you're comparing a very well known disease - flu in its various strains - to a new pathogen with a very unpredictable outcome that looks very grim .
The more we go, This thing is starting to look a lot like Wag the dog
Two issues here:
1. This article is over 5 days old. The situation is VERY different now.
2. Off-guardian is not a credible news site, and is known to lean to conspiracy theories over facts
OffGuardian - Bias and Credibility
CONSPIRACY-PSEUDOSCIENCE Sources in the Conspiracy-Pseudoscience category may publish unverifiable information that is not always supported by evidence.mediabiasfactcheck.com
I don’t know anything about Sweden as a country, but as @Antti points out the situation appears to be deteriorating. One problem I’ve seen with this pandemic is that things change so rapidly that you must make sure to be looking at the Very latest news and data. Stories and data from 2+ days ago can be totally different than today. Again I haven’t dug deep into Sweden, but we can’t point to any country as a success where infection rate is growing not shrinking. We have seen this pattern time and again that places that seemed fine, just blow up with mounting deaths seemingly overnight.
Some countries may be hit harder than others for known or unknown factors. I’m told the elderly in Italy as a percentage is very high for instance. But one pattern is clear, lots of governments act in denial until the numbers really skyrocket or young/famous/important people die. Then there is a collective oh sh*t, and you see an about face in policy and opinion. Everyone believes they will be different until they are not.
Even news anchors and experts they have on are giving false information. Last night I saw an epidemiologist expert on saying that we shouldn’t expect it to be as bad as people are saying because on the diamond princess the death rate was 1% and 7 people had died - totally false. People assume they can stop watching eventually and things wind change. As I’ve been saying this is a very very long illness
As of yesterday when he said this in fact 10 people had died and 15 remain in serious/critical condition. It’s not a good sign for people to be in serious/critical condition for so long. Some of those are highly likely to die, and many of those who do live are highly likely to have life long handicaps and may even be ventilator bound for the rest of their lives.
As I’ve been saying this is a very very long illness. So so many people struggle with this concept. It literally takes months and months to see the impact. if someone doesnt grasp and factor this in, they will derive a very very different picture than what is happening under the surface.
In a live dynamic population, you can’t ever see the true picture because infected are sometimes unaccounted for and also the exponentially increasing influx of new cases clouds what’s happening. People usually die starting 2-3 weeks after they got sick, but it can take much longer. So the deaths you see today are outcomes from 2-3 weeks (or longer) ago infections .
With a mushrooming, exponentially growing, new # of infections, it appears that the # dead is much less significant than it really is. Just look at an exponential growth curve. As long as something is doubling at a high rate, it gives false hope and the wrong outlook.
Let’s do a little thought experiment to demonstrate this. On day 1 we have 100 people infected. We assume the infection doubles ever 7 days, and on average it takes 2 weeks to die. 10% of the infected die at exactly 2 weeks after they initially get infected and no additional people die after more than 2 weeks of becoming infected. Here is our data.
7 days in, total 200 (100 new) infected 0 dead.
14 days in, total 400 (200 new) infected 10 dead
21 days in, total 800 (400 new) infected 20 dead
28 days in, total 1600 (800 new) infected 40 dead
35 days in, total 3200 (1600 new) infected 80 dead
42 days in, total 6400 (3200 new) infected 160 dead
Assume at this point a treatment to prevent new infection is developed, but there is no cure and treatment for those infected.
49 days in, total 6400 (0 new) infected 320 dead
56 days in, total 6400 (0 new) infected 640 dead
At day 7 you could proclaim this is a nothingburger, 200 infections and no one is dying (hmmm...this happened here @trump and many others). Then, notice that at any other point in time you try and calculate death rate from infected population, it is only 1/4 of the real death rate if you allow everyone to go from infection all the way through recovery or death. The new infections drown out the scale of how many are dying. The faster the doubling time which results in a bigger influx of new cases, and the longer the delay in outcome (death or recovery), the greater this effect. Note coronavirus doubles faster and time to resolution is longer than this example. Death rate is unknown but likely less than this example.
We have exactly one example of coronavirus that is snapshotted over time, it is the most pure example to follow. The diamond princess. It is the only “fixed experiment” that we have. As opposed to other populations the DP population was exposed and infections painstakingly counted. The exposures on the DP were all essentially at the same time, over a short period of time. As we follow the DP overtime no fresh cases are being added to cloud the picture of what is happening. We can then follow the outcome of all passengers over the required weeks and months, without clouding the picture will new cases occurring. As stated currently 10 of 712 passengers have died, 15 are still serious/critical, depending how those 15 resolve we will have min 10 deaths maximum 25 deaths.
But...until ALL have resolved we cannot actually state any final death rate, just a range with a maximum and minimum. And consider how long this “experiment” has been going on and we still have no answer. In fact when all infections had occurred on the diamond princess, there were only something like 50 known cases in the entire US. Now > 100K. And still over 1/2 of the cases from the diamond princess we do not know the live/die outcome of. Let that sink In!!
Now, back to Sweden...
I’ve been trying to follow a lot of the local papers around the world to get information as close to the source as i can.
Every country will follow similar patterns, but somewhat different rates. The time it takes for cases to double is not the same everywhere. There are things that do appear highly correlated to the rate of spread though.
1) Places with large international gateway airports. Makes sense, people bring it from other countries.
2) Tends to be worse with increasing population density
3) Tends to be worse with increases shared spaces, this is likely part of the reason why NYC has blown up faster than LA or Seattle. People ride the subway vs people driving their own cars, etc.
Anyway, this post is long enough. If something is not clear let me know.
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