The Worldwide C0VlD-19 Coronavirus Pandemic Discussion Thread...

[Drive2Riches]

A thought exercise.

Here's an example of exponential expansion of the virus from page 139 of our favorite book:



Pick any population and its number of infected individuals.
Find that number under Amount (no decimal) and then find the number for Days.

Right now, Washington is at Day 10 (around 512 infections confirmed, but skewed because of lack of testing.
Day 11 is going to be 3 days from now, because 3 days ago it was at around 256 detected infections.

The multiple is 3, so every 72 hours this thing doubles.

Day 17 is three weeks away = 65,536 infections.
And week four, the next week (or 6 days) is 262,144 infections. Just in the state of Washington.

The correlation of deaths to infections can be applied to these number statistically. Whether it's 0.6% or 3%, the number is scary, but even recovering, the sickness is scary as well.

Here's what I said just four days ago. And this tracks almost directly to this:

Locally, the Governor (WA) cited some numbers which in six weeks, if reached, means that for week seven the infections will be at 250,000 people. This is how exponential works.

 

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[loop101]

A thought exercise.

Here's an example of exponential expansion of the virus from page 139 of our favorite book:

View attachment 31081

Pick any population and its number of infected individuals.
Find that number under Amount (no decimal) and then find the number for Days.

Right now, Washington is at Day 10 (around 512 infections confirmed, but skewed because of lack of testing.
Day 11 is going to be 3 days from now, because 3 days ago it was at around 256 detected infections.

The multiple is 3, so every 72 hours this thing doubles.

Day 17 is three weeks away = 65,536 infections.
And week four, the next week (or 6 days) is 262,144 infections. Just in the state of Washington.

The correlation of deaths to infections can be applied to these number statistically. Whether it's 0.6% or 3%, the number is scary, but even recovering, the sickness is scary as well.

Here's what I said just four days ago. And this tracks almost directly to this:

The new infections will slow down after a certain number of people have already been infected and recovered. The number I have heard, is that it is 1% of the total population. WA has 7.5M people, so 1% of that is 75k. Maybe 1% is the wrong number, I don't know, but it is some number. It will be interesting to see if WA's new infections decline after 75K.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-C0VlD-19/

As the health care system becomes saturated with cases, it will become increasingly difficult to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In the absence of extreme interventions like those implemented in China, this trend likely won’t slow significantly until hitting at least 1% of the population, or about 3.3 million Americans.

 

[ChrisV]

And it looks like the partisan "get Trump" crowd has arrived.

If you're going to use this forum to express your Trump Derangement Syndrome, the "it's all Trump's fault!!" narrative, you will be removed from the thread. If you think Trump is 100% to blame and you think you're going to express that here in THIS thread, you are wrong. Take your esteemed opinion over to Reddit where your HuffPost and MotherJones links will be absorbed without question.

We've lasted 50+ pages without it.

I'm not a Trump fan by any stretch, but I think he's doing an excellent job of handling this situation.

The Travel ban? Excellent. Declaring a National Emergency before it gets completely out of control? F*cking Excellent. Freeing up FEMA disaster relief funds? Excellent. He's doing a really good job at listening to the experts around him.

He is aggressively attacking this problem and despite the many many disagreements I've had over the way he's done things in the past, if he can manage to do a good job at mitigating these damages he'll get a big gold star in my book.

The public roasting of this guy is so deserved. He was making entrepreneurs look like unethical dicks.

He Has 17,700 Bottles of Hand Sanitizer and Nowhere to Sell Them (Published 2020)

Amazon cracked down on coronavirus price gouging. Now, while the rest of the world searches, some sellers are holding stockpiles of sanitizer and masks.

www.nytimes.com

I have mixed feelings on price gouching. On the one hand I see how it can be seen as capitalizing on a tragedy. But on the other hand if people think it's worth $70 to protect their family, why should we tell them they can't do that?

How Price Gouging Helped My Family during a Storm | Mark Steckbeck

As an economist, I teach students about the benefits of what is derisively referred to as price gouging and why allowing prices to increase before and after a natural or man-made disaster is beneficial to those most in need. I am often asked something to the effect of, “How would you feel if it...

fee.org

Zerohedge

ZeroHedge - On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero

www.zerohedge.com

For example, when I found surgical masks gouged for $1 ea. I was so freakin excited and bought a reasonable amount for myself and my family (not too much, not too little.) But if they had pre-pandemic pricing at $4/box of 100 masks, people would likely buy them all and just stockpile for themselves and their family.

This?



Who is winning here? In one sense, I should have the right to decide if I want to spend $20 on a thing of toilet paper. These guys worked hard to stock up on supplies. They're providing a valuable service. But at the same time I see the opposite point. If you go in and buy all the sanitizer then other people can't get it and you may create a monopoly (which in another topic.)

But the ShopRite near me did something I found really admirable. They drastically discounted all soap and disinfectant but limited 4 per item per customer and put this sign up:



I think that's honestly the ideal solution.

Side note:

Mr. Anderson is now holding 500 packs of antibacterial wipes after Amazon blocked him from selling them for $19 each, up from $16 weeks earlier.

He bought the packs for $3 each. The next day, Amazon pulled his items and thousands of other listings for sanitizer, wipes and face masks. The company suspended some of the sellers behind the listings and warned many others that if they kept running up prices, they’d lose their accounts. Ebay soon followed with even stricter measures, prohibiting any U.S. sales of masks or sanitizer.

Commandment of control, anybody?

Mr. Colvin said he had posted 300 bottles of hand sanitizer and immediately sold them all for between $8 and $70 each, multiples higher than what he had bought them for. To him, “it was crazy money.” To many others, it was profiteering from a pandemic.

[...]

“From being in a situation where what I’ve got coming and going could potentially put my family in a really good place financially to ‘What the heck am I going to do with all of this?’”

 

[aspenriver]

A thought exercise.

Here's an example of exponential expansion of the virus from page 139 of our favorite book:

View attachment 31081

Pick any population and its number of infected individuals.
Find that number under Amount (no decimal) and then find the number for Days.

Right now, Washington is at Day 10 (around 512 infections confirmed, but skewed because of lack of testing.
Day 11 is going to be 3 days from now, because 3 days ago it was at around 256 detected infections.

The multiple is 3, so every 72 hours this thing doubles.

Day 17 is three weeks away = 65,536 infections.
And week four, the next week (or 6 days) is 262,144 infections. Just in the state of Washington.

The correlation of deaths to infections can be applied to these number statistically. Whether it's 0.6% or 3%, the number is scary, but even recovering, the sickness is scary as well.

Here's what I said just four days ago. And this tracks almost directly to this:

I think this a good way to grasp how quickly this virus is spreading.

I would also add the test turnaround time (usually 24-48 hrs) plus the incubation period (average around 5 days) to get a better sense of the amount of infected right now (not all showing symptoms yet though).

That would mean being around Day 12 with 2048 infections. Maybe even a lot more, depending on how much the testing is lacking.

 

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[Val Okafor]

Local Walmart isle. High consumer demand, thanks to the C0VlD-19 hysteria no ad/marketing budget required.

 

[Drive2Riches]

WA has 7.5M people

There is no data about how many people are truly infected. The number of new infections will spike when testing begins. Only then will we see data worthy of understanding the scope. As of today, there have been 6,569 people TESTED, which is fewer than a thousandth (0.08%) of the population of Washington. (6569/7.5M)

Public health experts agree that the true number of people who have been infected with C0VlD-19 in Washington greatly exceeds the number of C0VlD-19 infections that have been laboratory-confirmed. It is very difficult to know exactly how many people in Washington have been infected to date since most people with C0VlD-19 experience mild illness and the ability to get tested is still not widely available.

LINK

 

[Drive2Riches]

I would also add the test turnaround time (usually 24-48 hrs) plus the incubation period (average around 5 days) to get a better sense of the amount of infected right now (not all showing symptoms yet though).

This is great to think about. Although it reveals a feeling of futility to me. People getting tested would need to stop possible contagion by isolating during until negative result is determined. But the fact that incubation is maybe around 5 days actually means that even asymptomatic people must also be tested, and that is what's worrying.

I'm going to be watching the news regarding the health of the hand-shaking, microphone-adjusting group of CEOs of the rose garden. (control group: the "elbow guy")
Oh, and there is WH2 (maralogo) which seems quite the spark point for celebs and politicians who learned they tested positive. Fun times.

 

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[loop101]

There is no data about how many people are truly infected. The number of new infections will spike when testing begins. Only then will we see data worthy of understanding the scope. As of today, there have been 6,569 people TESTED, which is fewer than a thousandth (0.08%) of the population of Washington. (6569/7.5M)
LINK

Regardless of how many tests they have done, 1% of 7.5M is still 75K.

 

[Jon L]

Regardless of how many tests they have done, 1% of 7.5M is still 75K.

We're in the Seattle area and were tested just last night. The doctor that did the test said that University of Washington (UW) is processing 4000 tests per day, so something isn't getting reported correctly. (She's in direct contact with them multiple times per day). She also said that only 5% of tests results at UW are positive. These are people who had symptoms of the virus, not random samples from the population.

None of this is great news, but its still better than what many expected.

 

[Raoul Duke]

Spoiler: Find out who is behind the coronavirus...

 

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[Andy Black]

This is a nice read:

Balcony singing in solidarity spreads across Italy during lockdown

More apartment building residents sing or play instruments to boost morale

www.theguardian.com

 

[GIlman]

A thought exercise.

Here's an example of exponential expansion of the virus from page 139 of our favorite book:

View attachment 31081

Pick any population and its number of infected individuals.
Find that number under Amount (no decimal) and then find the number for Days.

Right now, Washington is at Day 10 (around 512 infections confirmed, but skewed because of lack of testing.
Day 11 is going to be 3 days from now, because 3 days ago it was at around 256 detected infections.

The multiple is 3, so every 72 hours this thing doubles.

Day 17 is three weeks away = 65,536 infections.
And week four, the next week (or 6 days) is 262,144 infections. Just in the state of Washington.

The correlation of deaths to infections can be applied to these number statistically. Whether it's 0.6% or 3%, the number is scary, but even recovering, the sickness is scary as well.

Here's what I said just four days ago. And this tracks almost directly to this:

This is a good example, but let me provide a revised model, to show the effect of reducing susceptible individuals from the pool. I will only extrapolate our so far to keep the model simple.

say we have a board with 10 pennies ok it. Each day we pick two random positions on the board without knowing if there is a penny on there or not. We do not replace pennies once removed. If there is a penny on there then that represents a newly infected person, if not then no one is infected. We assume we have 1 person infected to start and each day on average they are exposed to two people. If the person they meet is uninfected they will be infected. If they are already infected they can’t be infected a second time.

on day one we pick 2 slots. We get two pennies. Now statistically 20% of the population is infected.

on day two we pick 2 more slots. There is a 80% chance that we pick slots with a pennies so statistically there is now 36% infection rate in the population.

on day three we pick 2 more slots. There is statistically a 64% chance we pick slots with a penny now. So statistically 48.8% of people are infected.

On day 4 we pick 2 more spots. There is now statistically an 51.2% chance we pick a slot with a penny. So we statistically have 59.04% of the people infected.

On day 5 we pick a slot. There is now statistically a 40.96% chance of picking a slot with a penny. So now we have 67.232% of people infected.

I’m going to stop here to illustrate the point that if we didn’t account for the susceptible people are not factored in, then at this point in time 100% of people would be infected.

this is a linear model, I could do an logarithmic model but it’s harder to follow. Actual spread of disease is logarithmic in nature not linear, but the effect is generally the same. As more people become infected the rate of transmission decreases. you have the same number of exposures per day, but less and less people over time become infected per day because the percent of vulnerable people decreases as more people become immune due to prior illness.

this is why diseases burn out over time before 100% of the population becomes infected.

and no, 1% infection rate will not lead to a significant reduction in infection rate. 99% of encounters are still vulnerable at that point.

the model gets quite complex, because people do recover, so the total number of people infected that can pass it to others will eventually decline At the same time that the number susceptible declines. But estimates I’ve seen are that it takes 40-70% infected for the infection to die out naturally without a vaccine.

sorry if that explanation isn’t clear. It’s hard to explain a bit.

 

[aspenriver]

This is great to think about. Although it reveals a feeling of futility to me. People getting tested would need to stop possible contagion by isolating during until negative result is determined. But the fact that incubation is maybe around 5 days actually means that even asymptomatic people must also be tested, and that is what's worrying.

I read that asymptomatic people can't be tested (at least not inexpensively on a mass scale). Doctors should be telling those who takes a test to isolate.

The main point that I hope the people making decisions grasp is that there is a lag in the data. And it matters a lot due to the exponential nature that you pointed out.

I think most people will just look at the latest number of infections and not realize that it best serves as a conservative estimate of the people that had the virus a week ago.

 

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[RazorCut]

Meanwhile, in England:

Cheltenham Festival bubble brings respite despite disbelief elsewhere

Cheltenham Festival’s sanitisers had plenty of use but otherwise it was business as usual for the huge crowd on Gold Cup day

www.google.ie

The irony is a very high proportion of those race fans will be from your neck of the woods.

I swear Irish accents drown out the English on Gold Cup Week.

 

[Mckenzie]

We'll be OK. My kids are OK. My immediate family is OK. I don't see this as apocalyptic (and if it was, so be it). We have a circle of immediate friends, and what I have they're welcome to. We will figure out the next chapters if needed.

My viewpoint is perfectly summed up by this old writing from C.S. Lewis, far more eloquent than I could ever be. It was written in 1948 after the dawn of the atomic age.

In one way we think a great deal too much of the atomic bomb. “How are we to live in an atomic age?” I am tempted to reply: “Why, as you would have lived in the sixteenth century when the plague visited London almost every year, or as you would have lived in a Viking age when raiders from Scandinavia might land and cut your throat any night; or indeed, as you are already living in an age of cancer, an age of syphilis, an age of paralysis, an age of air raids, an age of railway accidents, an age of motor accidents.”

In other words, do not let us begin by exaggerating the novelty of our situation. Believe me, dear sir or madam, you and all whom you love were already sentenced to death before the atomic bomb was invented: and quite a high percentage of us were going to die in unpleasant ways. We had, indeed, one very great advantage over our ancestors—anesthetics; but we have that still. It is perfectly ridiculous to go about whimpering and drawing long faces because the scientists have added one more chance of painful and premature death to a world which already bristled with such chances and in which death itself was not a chance at all, but a certainty.

This is the first point to be made: and the first action to be taken is to pull ourselves together. If we are all going to be destroyed by an atomic bomb, let that bomb when it comes find us doing sensible and human things—praying, working, teaching, reading, listening to music, bathing the children, playing tennis, chatting to our friends over a pint and a game of darts—not huddled together like frightened sheep and thinking about bombs. They may break our bodies (a microbe can do that) but they need not dominate our minds.

— “On Living in an Atomic Age” (1948)

Thank you @Vigilante for posting this. It's a Sunday morning here in Australia, this is a real gift from you to us / me personally. After I read your post, I searched for the book and found this youtube CSLewisDoodle. Yes, just change "Atomic" to "Corona virus /COVID19:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxFmkg5dcyk&list=PL9boiLqIabFgjeaTcx_LLsXrguKfeqLmn&index=4
. It explained it all...Amazing...

"This is the first point to be made: and the first action to be taken is to pull ourselves together. If we are all going to be destroyed by ‘this C0VlD-19’, let that ‘CV” when it comes find us doing sensible and human things—praying, working, teaching, reading, listening to music, bathing the children, playing tennis, chatting to our friends over a ‘phone/internet’ and a game of darts—not huddled together like frightened sheep and thinking about ‘corona CV’. They may break our bodies (a 'CV' can do that) but they need not dominate our minds."

 

[Rabby]

A thought exercise.

Here's an example of exponential expansion of the virus from page 139 of our favorite book:

View attachment 31081

Pick any population and its number of infected individuals.
Find that number under Amount (no decimal) and then find the number for Days.

Right now, Washington is at Day 10 (around 512 infections confirmed, but skewed because of lack of testing.
Day 11 is going to be 3 days from now, because 3 days ago it was at around 256 detected infections.

The multiple is 3, so every 72 hours this thing doubles.

Day 17 is three weeks away = 65,536 infections.
And week four, the next week (or 6 days) is 262,144 infections. Just in the state of Washington.

The correlation of deaths to infections can be applied to these number statistically. Whether it's 0.6% or 3%, the number is scary, but even recovering, the sickness is scary as well.

Here's what I said just four days ago. And this tracks almost directly to this:

For mathematical accuracy, I would just like to point out that simple exponential growth does not model populations, including microbe populations (or infection rates, or death rates). Even in a lab, once resources hit a certain low or toxins a certain high, inherent limiters come into play. In the environment, limiters like human behavior, local density, immune response, and many unknowns will inevitably come into play.

If you want to look at population modeling, or infection spread, you should probably look at something with a built-in limiter, think of the logistic map and Mandelbrot set. It's a much more mature set of tools for population growth, decline, limiters, periods, etc. I think if you play with the numbers you'll see how it applies. Not that math is my game, per se, but I bet we would agree that extreme simplicity doesn't often model complex systems.

Here's a snappy lil video explanation:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovJcsL7vyrk

PS: Win a trip to SXSW! No, probably not.

 

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[GPM]

I have a three week old and a 18 month old at home with me right now. I am not too worried because I don't mind staying at home for weeks on end, but my wife is freaking out pretty bad.

I am more worried for my parents, as they insist on continuing to go to church 3 times a week. They have no underlying conditions that I am aware of, but my mom is not in the best of shape.

I need to do a regular grocery run on Monday which I am dreading. All I see in the local news are how empty the store shelves are around here. Thankfully there is a town with a costco only 35km away from where I live and apparently the madness has not hit there. All I want are my regular groceries! I was at the costco (I do 80% of my shopping there anyways) in the city near me at the start of last week and it was the worst I had ever seen it. It was busier than if you were to go near New Years. Apparently it is worse now.

 

[MoneyDoc]

At this point, more damage is being done by the media and this unnecessary panic than the virus itself.

It's truly so disturbing that this much people are sheep minded. No wonder the 1% are the 1%.

We can talk numbers all day long, but it still does not change the simple fact that it's a new virus and its supposed to spread. It also doesn't change the fact that influenza kills more and we should be more worried about getting the flu shot than toilet paper.

This will die down in a few weeks, but the impact this chaos will have, that was started by the media and people that can't think for themselves, will be tremendous.

 

[GIlman]

I have a three week old and a 18 month old at home with me right now. I am not too worried because I don't mind staying at home for weeks on end, but my wife is freaking out pretty bad.

I am more worried for my parents, as they insist on continuing to go to church 3 times a week. They have no underlying conditions that I am aware of, but my mom is not in the best of shape.

I need to do a regular grocery run on Monday which I am dreading. All I see in the local news are how empty the store shelves are around here. Thankfully there is a town with a costco only 35km away from where I live and apparently the madness has not hit there. All I want are my regular groceries! I was at the costco (I do 80% of my shopping there anyways) in the city near me at the start of last week and it was the worst I had ever seen it. It was busier than if you were to go near New Years. Apparently it is worse now.

based on your post it wasn’t clear what your specific concerns were.

as far as your kids, statistically children under 10 have not been affected.

your parents, depends on their age. Under 50 very low. 50-60 still low but more than less than 50. Over 60 the risk goes up but worse > 70.

as far as remaking available resources at the store, depends on the region. Here there was plenty of food just reduced choices.

 

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[GIlman]

There's plenty of blame to go around, but from a political perspective, I thought this was interesting:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/03/14/older-americans-are-more-worried-about-coronavirus-unless-theyre-republican/

(And for those of you who don't like the source, note that they are taking data from a Quinnipiac Poll, not their own polling.)

Both sides have already turned this entire crisis political -- the Left using it to attack a President they don't like and the Right using it to attack the media they dislike.

But, both the administration and right-wing media made a bad calculation about a month ago by not taking this thing seriously, and they sent the message to the American people that there wasn't much to worry about. Apparently, this message reverberated with a number of people who now are being put at risk (and are putting others at risk) simply by virtue of the fact that they haven't been convinced that the previous message was wrong.

I personally have in-laws who have a single source of news -- Fox News. And as of this morning, they are still convinced that the "liberal media" has forced Trump to "pretend" that this is a crisis (their words). They still remember his words from last month about the crisis being manufactured -- a "hoax" -- and don't believe the President is being sincere in his about-face on the topic.

Not sure how that can be rectified, but unless it is, this thing may potentially be much worse than it needs to be.

I agree with you in large part. But things are not static and the perspective and outlook reasonably changed for everyone over time based on how things turn. I don’t think it’s ever fair to apply hindsight bias (i.e. using what we Know today to interpret decisions or statements in the past without the benefit of your knowledge now) to judge anyone on either side of the aisle.

 

[Drive2Riches]

It also doesn't change the fact that influenza kills more and we should be more worried about getting the flu shot

This is what makes me frustrated!

Some of my family members get the flu shot every year, because their asthma and other chronic ailments become severely exacerbated with the flu.

No, based on my study so far, and living with this risk every day, I am NOT at all worried about anyone contracting the flu. Yes, people die from the flu, and yes, they're ones who are already compromised prior to getting the flu. But hey -- at least my family got their shot.

Where's the CV shot? Well, it's 18 months out, and people are currently talking about "herd immunity" which basically gives no F*cks to the weak, the elderly, and the immunodeficient.

 

[MJ DeMarco]

But, both the administration and right-wing media made a bad calculation about a month ago by not taking this thing seriously,

You mean ALL MEDIA? While the Democratic party and their media accomplices pushed impeachment while ignoring China?

LOL.

from last month about the crisis being manufactured -- a "hoax"

Ah yes, the narrative engineered by CNN, surely one of your "sources." Trump didn't say the CV was a "hoax", but that CV would be the new hoax to be weaponized against him to get him out of office. Just like emoluments, just like Russia, just like Ukraine, just like everything else the Democrats have done to see this man put to pasture. Now we can count on CV, no matter how he handles it, to be the new thing to "get Trump."

I haven't seen anything from this admin to indicate mishandling (yet) other than some boneheaded behavior at a press conference with hand shakes and microphones. Obviously that could change and this thing unfolds. At this point in time, I have no opinion -- I judge based on outcomes and execution, not because the admin currently has an (R) next to its name. At this stage of the event, it's too early in the execution cycle to make a judgment.

If you want to carry water for the Democrat party and their operatives, while pushing their "fake news" (CV is a hoax!!) do it elsewhere.

PS: I trust Fox News as much as I do CNN... simply one root of the same weed, but thanks for the insinuation.

 

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[MoneyDoc]

This is what makes me frustrated!

Some of my family members get the flu shot every year, because their asthma and other chronic ailments become severely exacerbated with the flu.

No, based on my study so far, and living with this risk every day, I am NOT at all worried about anyone contracting the flu. Yes, people die from the flu, and yes, they're ones who are already compromised prior to getting the flu. But hey -- at least my family got their shot.

Where's the CV shot? Well, it's 18 months out, and people are currently talking about "herd immunity" which basically gives no F*cks to the weak, the elderly, and the immunodeficient.

But the elderly, weak, and immunodeficient are also susceptible to many other respiratory diseases. If you have the flu, would you go visit your grandmother who can’t produce sufficient amounts of white blood cells? Of course not. So what’s different with the Coronavirus? No CV shot? The healthy don’t need it. The elderly/weak/immunodeficient: it’s your job as a responsible human to avoid contact with them. But that’s not specific to CV. That’s for any respiratory disease. So again, what’s different?

 

[MoneyDoc]

You mean ALL MEDIA? While the Democratic party and their media accomplishes pushed impeachment while ignoring China?

LOL.



Ah yes, the narrative engineered by CNN, surely one of your "sources." Trump didn't say the CV was a "hoax", but that CV would be the new hoax to be weaponized against him to get him out of office. Just like emoluments, just like Russia, just like Ukraine, just like everything else the Democrats have done to see this man put to pasture. Now we can count on CV, no matter how he handles it, to be the new thing to "get Trump."

I haven't seen anything from this admin to indicate mishandling (yet) other than some boneheaded behavior at a press conference with hand shakes and microphones. Obviously that could change and this thing unfolds. At this point in time, I have no opinion -- I judge based on outcomes and execution, not because the admin currently has an (R) next to its name. At this stage of the event, it's too early in the execution cycle to make a judgment.

If you want to carry water for the Democrat party and their operatives, while pushing their "fake news" (CV is a hoax!!) do it elsewhere.

PS: I trust Fox News as much as I do CNN... simply one root of the same weed, but thanks for the insinuation.

Well said. If Trump ends CV tomorrow, people will be more concerned about what he didn’t do or why he had handshakes with people, than they would that CV is gone.

 

[rblitz]

Well said. If Trump ends CV tomorrow, people will be more concerned about what he didn’t do or why he had handshakes with people, than they would that CV is gone.

The incubation period of the flu is usually 24 hours - 4 days. With CV it can be up to 14 days which makes it very likely (when having Corona) that you don't know you're contagious -- while you are.
So because you're not sitting around alone at home, it's "very likely" that you're spreading the virus in that period.

CV is also more contagious than the flu.

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Well said. If Trump ends CV tomorrow, people will be more concerned about what he didn’t do or why he had handshakes with people, than they would that CV is gone.

Exactly. No matter how he handles it, make no mistake, he will be crucified. The media and their sycophants will make sure of it.

you freaked out about CNN,

Yes Jason, because "CNN" is the one who pushed the "hoax" narrative which then was further picked up by their media cohorts, who all, basically, play for the same team... something you clearly believe, so much so you are perpetrating that "hoax" online.

Funny, the hoax itself, is a hoax.

 

[GIlman]

Please re-read my post. I'm not blaming anyone for what happened a month ago. I'm blaming people for not doing enough now.

What happened a month ago shaped perspective, and it's important that those people who have the ability to RESHAPE perspective do so in a way that's effective.

Like it or not, there are people who will only believe Trump and Fox News, and therefore it's Trump's and Fox News' responsibility to do whatever it take to change the perspective of those people.

Unless someone brings their personal politics into it, that just doesn't seem like a controversial stance. Does it?

agree with u on that. I lean republican but call out bullshit on either side.

I think the thing is fox and trump mold one perspective. CNN, abc, and msnbc form the other. Not sure how to meet in the middle.

 

[ChrisV]

I was gonna make a joke about Trump's about-face on the topic:

Something like:

Before: "I'm predicting this whole thing will blow over by April when it gets a little warmer"

...



....

"I am officially declaring a State of National Emergency."

Lol but all jokes aside I am happy with how he's currently handling this.

 

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[MTEE1985]

White House doctor reporting Trump tested negative. Good to hear.

Trump tests negative for coronavirus: White House doctor statement

U.S. President Donald Trump has tested negative for coronavirus, the president's physician, Sean Conley, said in a statement on Saturday.

www.reuters.com

 

[MJ DeMarco]

If questioning the dear leader is against your forum rules

No, but partisan hackery is. That was my perception of it, if that was off-base, then I apologize.

agree with u on that. I lean republican but call out bullshit on either side.

I lean on the entire spectrum, so much so, I've been ostracized from all parties.

I'm vegan. (Oh you belong over here on the left)
I own 4 glocks and an AR-15, and am a staunch 2A defender. (OH wait, you belong over here to the right!)
Gay people should marry (Wait, you belong over here. more left)
I believe in small government (Uh, maybe come back right??)
Religion is a control mechanism. (Maybe come back left?)
I believe in minimal taxation (come back right sir!!)
I believe in animal rights (YESSS, come here to the left!!!)
I believe that gender/social justice initiatives are crap (moves right again)

When it all boils down, I fit in neither party. I'm on an island to myself, which is why I can't stand partisan BS.

Judge a politician not by the R or D, but by their actions/results.
Judge a person, not by skin or gender, but by their actions/results.

I seek to uncover the truth, not to confirm biases. This thread is a search for truth, a truth that might save lives.

That's a perfectly reasonable assertion, and I agree with you. If that was the issue, we could have gotten past it very quickly and easily...

First, yes, CNN (along with nearly every other media outlet on the planet) sucks... They will sensationalize anything for their own benefit and to put $$$ in their pockets.

Next, I'm not saying Trump said it was a hoax. He was clearly saying that the attempt to use it against him was a hoax (which it was...like I said, media sucks).

BUT -- and this is the big BUT -- he used the word "hoax," and very few people on either side spent the 5 seconds it would take to think through that and what he meant. People don't think these days.

Many of those on the left immediately thought, "Trump is saying the virus isn't real!!!"

Many of those on the right immediately thought, "Trump is saying that the virus isn't a big deal!!!"

And even those on the right who might have interpreted the "hoax" quote as meaning a Democratic conspiracy likely also assumed that meant Trump didn't think the virus was a big deal.

Words matter. And that word -- even though it was interpreted wrongly by most people -- polarized people on the virus. The left started taking the virus too seriously (for that point). And the right started to not take the virus seriously enough.

As the chips fell, the left didn't see much repercussion for taking things too seriously. But, there are now repercussions for those who didn't take it seriously enough.

They have been anchored to their belief. And because of that anchoring, they are now at risk if someone doesn't break that anchor and convince them to be a little more concerned.

For a lot of those people, the only people who can do that are Trump and Fox News. So they have a responsibility to do it.

It's no different with CNN and the left. There are many people who don't believe anything they hear unless it comes from CNN or MSNBC. So, if the tables were turned, I would probably be saying the exact same thing but with liberals and CNN/MSNBC.

Makes sense.

I think we agree on the main point: Trump sucks as an orator and has a bad case of "foot in the mouth" syndrome -- which leads to these communication errors that either side can play football with. In this time of crisis, it won't work for him, but against.