A thought exercise.
Here's an example of exponential expansion of the virus from page 139 of our favorite book:
Pick any population and its number of infected individuals.
Find that number under Amount (no decimal) and then find the number for Days.
Right now, Washington is at Day 10 (around 512 infections confirmed, but skewed because of lack of testing.
Day 11 is going to be 3 days from now, because 3 days ago it was at around 256 detected infections.
The multiple is 3, so every 72 hours this thing doubles.
Day 17 is three weeks away = 65,536 infections.
And week four, the next week (or 6 days) is 262,144 infections. Just in the state of Washington.
The correlation of deaths to infections can be applied to these number statistically. Whether it's 0.6% or 3%, the number is scary, but even recovering, the sickness is scary as well.
Here's what I said just four days ago. And this tracks almost directly to this:
Here's an example of exponential expansion of the virus from page 139 of our favorite book:
Pick any population and its number of infected individuals.
Find that number under Amount (no decimal) and then find the number for Days.
Right now, Washington is at Day 10 (around 512 infections confirmed, but skewed because of lack of testing.
Day 11 is going to be 3 days from now, because 3 days ago it was at around 256 detected infections.
The multiple is 3, so every 72 hours this thing doubles.
Day 17 is three weeks away = 65,536 infections.
And week four, the next week (or 6 days) is 262,144 infections. Just in the state of Washington.
The correlation of deaths to infections can be applied to these number statistically. Whether it's 0.6% or 3%, the number is scary, but even recovering, the sickness is scary as well.
Here's what I said just four days ago. And this tracks almost directly to this:
Locally, the Governor (WA) cited some numbers which in six weeks, if reached, means that for week seven the infections will be at 250,000 people. This is how exponential works.
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