Is city life about to change forever?

[samuraijack]

I live in downtown Manhattan, it's not dead at all. Don't believe the hype.

 

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[LordGanon]

If the city dwellers come to the countryside to invade and gentrify my beautiful three street-nothing-but-fields-and woods-not even 100 inhabitants-village...Please God. No.

They'll bring their trendy veganism and tell us not to go hunting or fishing anymore. Guns, in the hands of people! No way. Then, they'll complain that we don't grow soy (because it's an ecological catastrophe, you morons, just like your avocado toast from South America). No more free roaming dogs or cattle, because the helicopter kids still didn't learn how to fly. And of course, they'll want to diversify us folks, because we've been living in ignorance and have to be more cosmopolitan. No, we don't. That's why we don't live in your cities.

 

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[Fox]

This is a super interesting read...

NYC Is Dead Forever... Here's Why - James Altucher

I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC, it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories. Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. …

jamesaltucher.com

I would like to see what the people on here who are state side think of this and any other trends they might see coming.

 

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[Jon L]

During every major crisis, people start talking about the 'new normal.' During the Dot Com Boom, the new normal was that companies didn't need revenue anymore. How long did that last? (about long enough to create the Dot Com Bust). The new normal during the real estate bubble was that real estate was a GREAT! investment. That didn't last all that long, either. I'm sure the roaring twenties had people that were talking about the New Normal, how advanced society and technology had become, making basic human nature a thing of the past.

How many new normals do we need to have before we realize there's no such thing? Calamities come, calamites go. HUMAN NATURE DOESN'T CHANGE. People want to be around other people.

Pendulums do swing, however. But those swings aren't so easy to predict.

My daughter asked me earlier today, 'what do you think the future will be like?' I replied that I had no idea. I said that in the sixties, people thought that by the eighties, flying cars would be ubiquitous, and we'd be well on our way towards colonizing space. Instead, personal computers and then the internet cropped up, changing vast swaths of the economy. Cars remain about the same. Sure, they're quieter, smoother and more fuel efficient, but they still have gasoline engines, 4 tires, and go about the same speed. Someone from the 60s would immediately identify a car of today as a 'car.' They'd probably be very disappointed with how un-futuristic they look. Seems that the laws of physics and human driving capability have more of an impact than we thought. At the same time, they would look at us with puzzled amazement at what we call a phone.

Will NYC be different as a result of this pandemic? Yup. But, no one has even a hint of a clue as to what that change might entail 30 years down the road. The only thing I can guarantee is that Mr. Altucher is wrong. Why? Take a look at everyone who predicted major changes based on the new normals of the past. None of them panned out. They were far too extreme.

 

[Likwid24]

I live in downtown Manhattan, it's not dead at all. Don't believe the hype.

What part of Manhattan are you in? I live in Staten Island and haven't been to Manhattan since April, but according to friends that work in Manhattan, it's a disaster right now. Bums everywhere. Graffiti. Garbage. Stores closed. A ton of restaurants shut down for good. Homeless peeing and shitting on the streets (I have video of this).

This is why my Uncle who lives on the upper east side just bought another home in Florida. He's leaving. Also a group of well over 10,000 moms formed a Facebook group to discuss the filth and where they are moving to next.

This can be the end of NYC as we know it. I'm looking to make a move as well even though Staten Island hasn't been affected. It's only a matter of time.

 

[humananalytics]

I live in downtown Manhattan, around the financial district - a few things I've observered:

1. Rental prices are significantly down in Manhattan. Nowhere close to 50% though, seems like 20-30%
2. Rental prices are steady for family units in Brooklyn and Queens. Families deeply rooted in NYC are for the most part, staying
3. Most of my colleagues are actually tired of remote work. For most of us it actually leads to worse WLB
4. NYC's status as a financial hub is not arbitrary, most financial transactions are routed through NYC for international trade.
5. Dirt, filth, and homelessness seem to be up. Where I live, I'm largely unaffected, but when I venture uptown it does seem worse than I remember
6. When I do go on the subway very occasionally, there are still a decent number of people. Definitely less, but far from a ghost town
7. One of my friends owned a successful restaurant, he's closing it down, and his second one is at risk. According to him, many more restaurants are headed to towards closing

That being said I have no idea if it will bounce back or not. One interesting phenomenon we may see, is that rental prices in NYC decrease, which will actually attract a decent number of people to stay or come back. If NYC becomes priced close to a Tier 2 city, it becomes a pretty good deal.

 

[AFMKelvin]

Anyone thinking of leaving the city should move to Texas. The fact that's the second largest state in the country makes it easy to find cheap land and in any environment you like.

Why haven't you moved to Texas yet?

Plenty of land for everyone. You might qualified for free land in some counties.

The average price on acre is around $10k an acre and only 40 a minute drive to Dallas/Fort Worth.

Most have lakes or water reservoirs. You can fish all year around because winters are mild. Relaxed or non existent building codes. Build a house however you want. Tiny or huge. Guns everywhere and you can carry them anywhere. Horses and you can dress like a cowboy without looking stupid.

Cheap meat because there's plenty of cattle ranchers. Organic grass fed farms where you pick the animal you want.

Also some of the best satellite internet and it's a growing industry. If you're tech savvy you can make it selling wireless internet. For $100 a month you get 40 MBS of data almost anywhere in Texas.

 

[Ocean Man]

I know a lot of family members and friends that are really considering moving out of our state or the main city. It just isn’t worth it to them living there. Crazy rent, traffic, terrible homeless and violence situation downtown.

I’m not just an advocate for moving out of the city, I’m a huge advocate for going to different countries. I’ve said it in numerous forum threads. People need to get outside of their city, state, and country. The world is too huge! Don’t just stay in one place your entire life.

For me, I want to figure out how I can start an online business, so that I can earn US money while living in different countries.

If we’re talking about the US only, there seems to be a shift of people leaving the big states like WA, California, NY, and going more into the middle.

 

[AFMKelvin]

I just left the city a few weeks ago now I live in the country side. At first it was kind of boring but now that I'm used to it I like the country side better. I'm less anxious, paranoid, and less stressed out. No traffic and my diet had also improved because the nearest fast food is 20 miles from my house.

The internet has taken the magic of the city away. You no longer need to be in the city to grow as a person or in a field. All the information you need is now online.

 

[MTF]

Anyone thinking of leaving the city should move to Texas. The fact that's the second largest state in the country makes it easy to find cheap land and in any environment you like.

If you love living there, you shouldn't invite others lol. Once everyone starts moving there, it will get ruined.

As for the thread, recently a much less reputable site published a similar article on Los Angeles:

Hollywood Apocalypse: The rich and famous are fleeing in droves

CAROLINE GRAHAM: The pandemic has made many in Hollywood realise they don't need to live in LA - or anywhere near it - to keep working.

www.dailymail.co.uk

It's not really a new trend caused by the virus. History shows that all big and trendy cities eventually collapse. The pandemic just accelerated the pace of change.

 

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[WJK]

This is a super interesting read...

NYC Is Dead Forever... Here's Why - James Altucher

I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC, it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories. Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. …

jamesaltucher.com

I would like to see what the people on here who are state side think of this and any other trends they might see coming.

I lived in the Los Angeles area for 30 years and I loved it. Now I'm retired and live in the woods with the moose. I pined for my life in LA for years. Now, with all this happening, I'm just glad to have a safe, quiet place to live.

 

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[Mutant]

I get it. If I was still single and living in London and had the opportunity to work from home then I’d have left and gone back up North (in England) to stay with my parents (who I’d also want to be around at this time).

I know this thread is about the States, but I'd just thought I'd drop in my London observations.

Over the past few months, lots of people - myself included - have visited their parents or friends outside of London - for a holiday, to work from there for a bit, because they have no work for a bit (mainly actors, models, & events industry people in my group), but I'm struggling to think of anyone I know who's planning to permanently move away (that wasn't already for other reasons). That includes families & people of various ages.

I've been into Central a few times for work, & whilst things are certainly quieter, & it remains to be seen how much ultimately re-opens, it's definitely not a ghost town, & I've not seen boards everywhere like that Manhattan video, just the odd one.

The offices may tell a different story - I rarely worked in one beforehand anyway. But one company I work for is actually considering getting an office in the coming months - for cheap.

The general vibe I'm getting is that people are largely expecting a return to what was - eventually - but probably having lost some restaurants, shops, theatres, etc. along the way. How long that takes, & whether it ever truly materialises is another matter. But no one I know is really altering their plans because of that yet.

 

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[minivanman]

This is the way it was when we bought this house (Texas). If we would have needed a loan, we would have never of gotten it.

Hell no! If you are thinking about moving, move some where else besides Texas! Don't make traffic any worse than it already is. Move to Mississippi, they have very nice white beaches, all we have in Texas is trashy b!tches

 

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[GSF]

Related:
This twitter video illustrates what Altucher's post describes. Shows the ghost town view of boarded-up downtown Manhattan.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1291717913980747776

View: https://twitter.com/tadgermania/status/1291717913980747776

I believe this video was from 2 months back during the riots/ looting.

 

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[minivanman]

Y'all must not know that we just had 1/2 of California move here since 1017! No joke, I used to get 15 texts a week wanting to know if I had any electric dryers. My response was..... did you just move from California? Then they would say, "Yes! How did you know?" And I would say... because you are the 12th or 15th or what ever number it was from California this week that has asked that question. We do not need any more people here. Down by Houston is perfect.... 5 hours away from the DFW area

By the way.... California must have gas for dryers, here in Texas we use electric.

MTF.... No, I don't need my close friends here either, I can go visit them every few months.

 

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[WJK]

They're not like minded at all. They're already turning Austin into a mini California. Police were just defunded, homeless camping on the streets have increased, and drugs are somewhat legal.

They say that they want something different. And then they take those attitudes with them and try to make the new place like their old. Yuck. I wish they would come with an open mind.

 

[Andy Black]

This is a super interesting read...

NYC Is Dead Forever... Here's Why - James Altucher

I love NYC. When I first moved to NYC, it was a dream come true. Every corner was like a theater production happening right in front of me. So much personality, so many stories. Every subculture I loved was in NYC. I could play chess all day and night. I could go to comedy clubs. …

jamesaltucher.com

I would like to see what the people on here who are state side think of this and any other trends they might see coming.

I saw something in my Facebook feed a couple of days ago too about youngsters leaving New York (presumably many going back home to some town outside New York).

I “heard” that a lot of the Googlers in Dublin are heading back to their countries. It makes sense if they’re able to work from home till next year and the rent is so high in Dublin.

I get it. If I was still single and living in London and had the opportunity to work from home then I’d have left and gone back up North (in England) to stay with my parents (who I’d also want to be around at this time).

 

[Andy Black]

Just read the full article. It’s sad alright.

What stands out is that broadband could well be the reason things don’t go back to the way they were. The ability to hold Zoom meetings and work from home has changed so much.

What also stood out is how many students won’t be going back to college full-time. What direction is education heading in now?

 

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[Jon L]

I talked to someone in Florida today that is looking for a house to buy/rent. She said that the RE market is so hot right now that homes last only 24-48 hours on the market. They're being paid for in cash. People like her, who need a mortgage, have almost no chance of buying something. This is all from people moving out of the city.

 

[MetalGear]

• Macroeconomic trends say short-term there will be an exodus
• Long-term, I would still flip in the area, definitely not holding anymore rentals
• Luckily I am just outside of NYC and have interest in my current rental
• Seeing the same thing as @Likwid24, NJ/PA are experiencing an influx, even DE
• Manhattan proper will definitely take a hit
• Financial services companies already began their risk mitigation and business continuity plans after 9/11, this will likely move them towards more remote work
• Middle and back offices were moved to NJ/CT, North Carolina, and Utah mainly

 

[Likwid24]

If you love living there, you shouldn't invite others lol. Once everyone starts moving there, it will get ruined.

Not sure why you wouldn't want more like minded individuals moving closer to you.

BTW - me and my wife are considering Texas when I retire from the FDNY in 5 years. We've been looking at areas south of Houston (we need to be close to a beach). Friendswood seems like a great town.

 

[MTF]

Not sure why you wouldn't want more like minded individuals moving closer to you.

Because while at first you might be getting more like-minded individuals, eventually everyone wants to move there, including - inevitably - people who end up ruining the place. I might be a little cynical, but I think that if you want a place to retain its magic, you can't invite too many outsiders (and those who do come need to be the right fit, respecting the locals and integrating into the community).

It's one of the golden rules of surfing that you don't share any secrets spots because once a spot stops being a secret, it gets ruined by crowds and eventually surfers who don't follow basic etiquette/don't share your values/are aggressive/have no idea what they're doing. It might be fun to surf with a few of your buddies (like-minded individuals) but eventually, if more and more people know about the spot, the fun you have there declines due to the crowds and people who aren't like-minded.

Same thing happens with national parks. I know one place that used to be a quiet place where only people "in the know" used to go (in contrast to another place that has always been extremely crowded). As it became more and more popular, now it's frequented by Karens and Chads who go there only to take selfies while crowding the trails, destroying the environment, and the local vibe.

Same with tourist/expat destinations. For example, Byron Bay in Australia used to be a hippy, alternative town with little infrastructure, attracting mostly surfers and hippies. Nowadays, due to a huge increase in popularity it's the opposite of what it once was - it's crowded, catering to rich people, with some of the highest real estate prices in the entire country. Maybe the first surfers/hippies who invited other surfers/hippies were happy at first but I'm pretty sure that today they aren't happy with what happened to "their" hippy town.

I wonder how many Texans will be happy if Texas turns into another NYC or LA. For this reason, if I lived in Texas, I wouldn't encourage everyone but a few close friends to move there.

 

[Burton]

I live in Cracow and to be honest not much has changed. There are just two things I consider unusual:
- wearing masks in shops,
- fewer people on the main market area but it's obvious because there are fewer tourists.

Other than that I think it's pretty normal here. I went to Kazimierz last weekend which is a well-known district in Cracow and I couldn't believe but there were literally tons of people on the streets and restaurants. I asked one of the waitress from a restaurant we went to if it's normal and she told me that it's the same every weekend and even during a week there are a lot of people.

Clubs are open as well which is strange for me because you can go there without a mask and party all night long.

I don't think there will much change in the future as well. I'm from the IT world and have some connections with companies around Cracow that went fully remote. You can think that remote work is a future but they are having pretty tough times with their employees who don't want and can't work at their homes. Believe me or not, but most of their employees are these ones who already want to go back to work in the office.

 

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[Likwid24]

Because while at first you might be getting more like-minded individuals, eventually everyone wants to move there, including - inevitably - people who end up ruining the place. I might be a little cynical, but I think that if you want a place to retain its magic, you can't invite too many outsiders (and those who do come need to be the right fit, respecting the locals and integrating into the community).

I'll have to disagree with this. Texas is no secret. In fact, it's as big topic of conversation here in NY along with Florida and the Carolinas. People will move where they want to move.

 

[AFMKelvin]

Y'all must not know that we just had 1/2 of California move here since 1017! No joke, I used to get 15 texts a week wanting to know if I had any electric dryers. My response was..... did you just move from California? Then they would say, "Yes! How did you know?" And I would say... because you are the 12th or 15th or what ever number it was from California this week that has asked that question. We do not need any more people here. Down by Houston is perfect.... 5 hours away from the DFW area

By the way.... California must have gas for dryers, here in Texas we use electric.

MTF.... No, I don't need my close friends here either, I can go visit them every few months.

Yup I don't think other states understand the push back of Texans trying to keep Californians out. They even created a slogan for it " Don't California my Texas."

Don't California My Texas - History of a Polarizing Phrase - Reform Austin

"Don't California my Texas" - This represents a partisan resistance to change and attempts to pit the states against each other. Read more at Reform Austin.

www.google.com

 

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[AFMKelvin]

Most that I know are leaving to get away from the far left BS. They are like minded people that are tired of the democratic run cities that are turning to shit.

They're not like minded at all. They're already turning Austin into a mini California. Police were just defunded, homeless camping on the streets have increased, and drugs are somewhat legal.

 

[Andy Black]

Related:
This twitter video illustrates what Altucher's post describes. Shows the ghost town view of boarded-up downtown Manhattan.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1291717913980747776

View: https://twitter.com/tadgermania/status/1291717913980747776

Whoa. That video...

 

[SteveO]

@MetalGear

 

[Runum]

I believe this video was from 2 months back during the riots/ looting.

That is correct. @Likwid24

 

[Mutant]

Well, it sure looks like people are leaving San Francisco at least!

From: Zillow 2020 Urban-Suburban Market Report - Zillow Research