Harsh Reality vs Pursuing Your Dreams

[MTF]

In the most glamorous, dream-driven niches, business models, or careers, the harsh reality is that very few people reach the top. For example, the vast majority of actors are broke. Most novelists make peanuts. Wannabe influencers will never reach the high level of success they expect. Most bloggers will quit before they start making any money, let alone reaching five or six figures.

Knowing the harsh reality (or perhaps ignoring it?), most people still pursue these most popular businesses, thinking that they'll be special, that the statistics apply only to other people. Sometimes it's caused by their belief that you need to do what you love. But often it's not even that. They just see so many people making a living in a given niche (say, YouTubers) that they think they can do it, too. But the competition is so fierce that the odds are stacked against them.

How do you protect yourself against this naive thinking that the harsh reality doesn't apply to you? I mean, if most novelists end up making pennies and just a handful of authors make most money, what makes you think that you'll be better than them? Why not launch a business with very few competitors where you have much higher chances of success?

Or do you believe that if you really care about pursuing a given business, you'll succeed no matter what the reality is for most people?

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

This is why I like to say, passion is a horrible business model.

 

[Ronak]

Do you have a college degree? You beat out 93% of the world.

Ok-- maybe that's a cheap shot.

Take the US, for example. Most people you probably know have degrees. Care to guess what percentage of the U.S are college educated? 80%? 60 something?

Its 35%-- that's a minority.

There are dozens of things that you've done in your life without thinking that are statistically impossible. Even being born-- you beat out 100 million other sperm-- is an anomaly.

Now, the flipside.

Have you ever raised $1 million in capital? Ever sold $1 million worth of products or services?

There are tens of thousands of people who have, maybe even millions. If you were to rent out a ballroom in a hotel, they would fill it up 10 times over, and still not run out of those people. To those people, it's nothing special, just normal routine, they can do it in their sleep. But they weren't born that way. They took a certain path, and now, it's 2nd nature. If they can do you, so can you-- or even better yet, you can partner with them.

Odds/averages are largely meaningless because you are a unique individual. I believe that half the battle is in just willing to try. Business is a great equalizer- it doesn't depend on physical skill to achieve great feats like football or basketball would.

Ultimately, it should be a consideration, but not the primary focus. Starting an airline is statistically a poor financial proposition. That's a good reason to avoid it.

But if you spent your life in the industry, figuring out countless ways to beat the odds by improving the different aspects of the flight experience, and have built out a team of people that can help you, by all means, you should go for it.

My philosophy is to use the odds where it helps and adjust your perspective to where it makes sense.

 

[SEBASTlAN]

In the most glamorous, dream-driven niches, business models, or careers, the harsh reality is that very few people reach the top. For example, the vast majority of actors are broke. Most novelists make peanuts. Wannabe influencers will never reach the high level of success they expect. Most bloggers will quit before they start making any money, let alone reaching five or six figures.

Knowing the harsh reality (or perhaps ignoring it?), most people still pursue these most popular businesses, thinking that they'll be special, that the statistics apply only to other people. Sometimes it's caused by their belief that you need to do what you love. But often it's not even that. They just see so many people making a living in a given niche (say, YouTubers) that they think they can do it, too. But the competition is so fierce that the odds are stacked against them.

How do you protect yourself against this naive thinking that the harsh reality doesn't apply to you? I mean, if most novelists end up making pennies and just a handful of authors make most money, what makes you think that you'll be better than them? Why not launch a business with very few competitors where you have much higher chances of success?

Or do you believe that if you really care about pursuing a given business, you'll succeed no matter what the reality is for most people?

 

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[Black_Dragon43]

In the most glamorous, dream-driven niches, business models, or careers, the harsh reality is that very few people reach the top. For example, the vast majority of actors are broke. Most novelists make peanuts. Wannabe influencers will never reach the high level of success they expect. Most bloggers will quit before they start making any money, let alone reaching five or six figures.

Knowing the harsh reality (or perhaps ignoring it?), most people still pursue these most popular businesses, thinking that they'll be special, that the statistics apply only to other people. Sometimes it's caused by their belief that you need to do what you love. But often it's not even that. They just see so many people making a living in a given niche (say, YouTubers) that they think they can do it, too. But the competition is so fierce that the odds are stacked against them.

How do you protect yourself against this naive thinking that the harsh reality doesn't apply to you? I mean, if most novelists end up making pennies and just a handful of authors make most money, what makes you think that you'll be better than them? Why not launch a business with very few competitors where you have much higher chances of success?

Or do you believe that if you really care about pursuing a given business, you'll succeed no matter what the reality is for most people?

Wow amazing thread @MTF! Thanks for bringing this up. As entrepreneurs, we often feel the compulsion to be positive because that's what our peers expect of us, and have a tendency to repress any negative, and don't even want to contemplate the possibility that we will fail. Which I think is not a very functional perspective, but I know many would disagree.

So here's how I approach this.

At the bottom of this discussion is your philosophy as to what causes success. If you believe success is a matter of luck, then you will feel that your chances are small, the more participants there are. After all, not everyone can be successful.

The alternative is believing that success is a matter of cause and effect. If you believe this, then you (and maybe everyone else) may not know the "success formula", but you know that it is out there. You know that success is never a matter of luck, rather it's about discovering what this formula is for you, in that particular industry or niche.

There is a third possibility as well. Not having ANY kind of belief, either that it's possible or that it's not possible. And then you simply set out to discover if it's possible. So if the activity or business matters to you, it's something you enjoy, then you will do it, always doing your best to reach success, and removing ALL limiting beliefs as to what may be possible. The truth is that you simply do not know.

Regarding this third option, there is this tendency in business circles to give overwhelming power to beliefs. You need to belief this or that in order to be successful. If you don't, you don't even have a chance. However, my view is that it's NOT an empowering belief that gets you to success, but rather disbelieving your disempowering beliefs which makes you open to doing what it takes to succeed. It's those actions that take you to success.

So which one do you believe, and why?

Personally I believe the second one. Success is a matter of cause and effect. To succeed, I don't necessarily need to be the best, I just need the right formula. So if the respective business is something I care about, I believe that I can succeed if I just discover the right formula, the winning combination that opens the lock.

 

[Fox]

I think when you truly aim for the top the competition isn't as thick as it seems.

Basics:
Pick a smart niche that you spot an opportunity in and have some skills that give you a winning shot

The numbers:
- Most will not even show up with any real attempt - 30-50% gone there already
- Most who do show up will just aim for okay/average level results - another 20-25% there
- Some people will aim big won't have the ability to reach the top and probably should have done something else (10-15%)
- And only a few people are left who are your real competition (like 10% or less)

Bonus:
If you figure out a good angle early in the game you can reduce that 10% of people left down to 1% or less by having your own unique approach. Pick a niche within a niche and make the odds even better.

 

[Guest-5ty5s4]

I believe you should only pursue passion after you have your bases covered. Let’s say after you are debt free, financially free, have a break, etc. Not required, but gives a huge advantage.

I also believe most people write off ideas like this without ever even attempting them, and like starting a business, most of the “failures” never gave an honest effort in the first place.

For example, let’s say you want to be a famous musician. I might ask “how many shows do you play each month?”

If your reply is “each MONTH? That’s so many! I can barely get a couple gigs a year,” or if you only play in one town, or if you refuse to travel, or you only play certain types of up scale venues, then you aren’t going to make it because you aren’t even TRYING enough to be in the running.

What I mean is, you have to at least enter the race if you’re going to win.

And the people who are really in the race aren’t walking.

They’re doing everything they can - their personal lives are fully oriented towards their goal. If you’re not, you’re not going to make it. You’ve got to be all in.

Jordan Peterson said “some games can only be played if you’re all in” - and that really hit me. He’s right!

 

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[The-J]

I can't seem to find the Seth Godin article I read this from, but one of the traits of successful entrepreneurs he mentions is an almost delusional belief in oneself.

You mention the harsh reality that most people never make it. One aspect that Seth Godin believes that entrepreneurs share is that they simply don't worry about the possibility of not making it, because it's just not an option in their minds. Limiting beliefs? None whatsoever. Fear? Of course they're afraid, but it's not failure that they're afraid of. They're much more afraid of being wrong now and having to pivot painfully and slowly. Thing is, they know that they will pivot if they're wrong. It's just a fact of life. If they're wrong, they will lose money, investors will lose money, people will lose confidence, and they'll have to go through more pain to try and make their vision a reality. It sucks, but it is what it is.

Quit? Never. Pivot? Maybe, hopefully not but maybe.

Most people quit before they reach their destination anyway (see: OPs avatar picture) so if you never really stop, then your odds of making it vastly increase because you're always in the game. Instead of a 1% chance, you might have a 30% chance just by virtue of the number of times you try.

 

[eliquid]

In the most glamorous, dream-driven niches, business models, or careers, the harsh reality is that very few people reach the top. For example, the vast majority of actors are broke. Most novelists make peanuts. Wannabe influencers will never reach the high level of success they expect. Most bloggers will quit before they start making any money, let alone reaching five or six figures.

Knowing the harsh reality (or perhaps ignoring it?), most people still pursue these most popular businesses, thinking that they'll be special, that the statistics apply only to other people. Sometimes it's caused by their belief that you need to do what you love. But often it's not even that. They just see so many people making a living in a given niche (say, YouTubers) that they think they can do it, too. But the competition is so fierce that the odds are stacked against them.

How do you protect yourself against this naive thinking that the harsh reality doesn't apply to you? I mean, if most novelists end up making pennies and just a handful of authors make most money, what makes you think that you'll be better than them? Why not launch a business with very few competitors where you have much higher chances of success?

Or do you believe that if you really care about pursuing a given business, you'll succeed no matter what the reality is for most people?

There is so many things going on here...

I get what you mean. What you are trying to say and setup, I do.

But my thought is this:

1. "vast majority of actors are broke" - If you are talking about the ones that went to California and are waiting tables, those aren't actors. They're waiters.

2. "Most novelists make peanuts" - most of them aren't novelist. They maybe have a day job or career. Writing is their side hobby. They more than likely aren't novelists.

3. "Wannabe influencers" - keyword being wannabe. These people aren't influencers.

So right off the bat, based on my logic and thinking.. the so called "actors" market is cut back 80% or more. Same with novelists and influencers. What might be a huge market/audience to you or others, is really only 20% to me because real actors are not waiting tables.

The actors who make this their full-time job are to me. So now the market is so much smaller and I can base any numbers/stats on just those that actually matter.

So when this is done, is the new small pool of actors really broke now? And what's broke? Homeless or just getting by? $1m Ferrari or G6?

Maybe the frame needs to be changed. Who are really actors? What is really broke?

When we exclude hobbiest and part-timers and dreamers who have never been in a movie/tv series.. what does the outcome look like now?

In the same vein, you can become a good basketball player but it doesn't mean you'll ever become an NBA player. Your odds are just extremely low and unless it's your #1 biggest dream ever, it realistically doesn't make sense to pursue this goal. These guys aren't merely damn good. Not even great. They're one of a kind, and are often simply lucky (lucky as in, a certain series of events worked out for them while it didn't work for countless others - a single injury at the wrong time can ruin your career).

So I'm not saying at all that we can't learn new things or use this "the odds are stacked against me" as an excuse not to pursue big goals. It's more of being cautious of this bias and choosing carefully what we're pursuing so that we don't waste time chasing something that's completely unrealistic for everyone but a few select people.

So in one thought, the NBA basketball player was often simply lucky. A certain series of events worked out for them while not working out for others.

But then in another thought, you are trying to actively chose carefully what you pursue so no time is wasted in something unrealistic.

BUT, how do you know what's realistic? Also, if it's all down to luck, why even plan or be careful in what you choose as to not waste time since luck and life is gonna pick for you?

If we all assume an NBA player gets to where he is based on luck and certain events happening to them, how does the next Michael Jordan who maybe right now is in the 2nd grade get to the NBA if he decides today it's just luck and he needs to quit wasting time being unrealistic? Especially if his parents think the same way?

The truth is, the "lucky" events happened because of certain events the believer did before hand, proactively towards their dream/goal.

Jordan didn't get lucky. Sure certain events happened to him to have him in the NBA, but those events happened because of what he did prior. Those events prepared him for the next event and the next so that when things lined up, he was at the right place at the right time.

Those events can't unfold without the event before it. Like you said, a certain series of events happened. But you got to put yourself in that series, in those events.

He didn't sit around thinking it wasn't realistic and wasn't going to happen and he needs to chase another dream. If he did, he wouldn't have been watching replays of games, doing 1k freethrows, working out, making dunks, playing college ball, etc to get to the level he did when it was "go time".

I guess I believe reality. I do agree that you can very often achieve whatever you want with the right formula. But sometimes life chooses for you. You can simply be in the right place at the right time while someone else isn't.

Entrepreneurs do like to avoid talking about it. But even for the world's greatest entrepreneurs, luck played a big role. Elon Musk would have failed with SpaceX if it wasn't for that final try that worked out.

In my case, one person told me something that is basically responsible for my business success. If it wasn't for her, I'd probably never figure it out. So I was lucky in this aspect. You could say that I was hanging out in the right environment and it was another matter of cause and effect. But most actors live in California, yet most work as waiters lol.

Some people do get lucky by being at the right place at the right time. People win the lottery.. Some people get a magical VP of Marketing job at an agency when they know 0 about marketing online.

But time snuffs them out.

I know a guy that got back to back jobs as senior level marketing talent. VP this, CMO that, SVP here, etc... Honestly, I was jealous when it happened to him. Mainly because I taught this guy everything he knew and just 6 months ago he was asking me about PPC and SEO.

But guess what, he lasted 3-6 months in each of those roles and was fired at each.

So time snuffs you out in one way or another. You might get the 15 minutes of fame and the lucky draw, but if you can't output and perform at that level, you get thrown to the waste side. Knowing this, I now don't care about who life makes lucky, because it will end when it is suppose to. Luck maybe pulled the ticket for you ( I dont believe this ), but luck doesn't keep you in the game when it's "go time".

On Elon and how luck played a big role in the last final try for Space X, that wasn't luck. That was countless tests, checklists, top talent and failures to learn from. That wasn't luck... it wasn't luck he was determined to keep trying, that he and his team had all this failure data prior.

And those actors that live in california you keep referencing, they aren't actors. They're waiters. Quit making the "pool" of actors so large to fit your model/belief. Just because I call myself an actor, doesn't mean I am one. Why are you in belief these other ones are too? Because they claim to be?

 

[MTF]

Most people quit before they reach their destination anyway (see: OPs avatar picture) so if you never really stop, then your odds of making it vastly increase because you're always in the game. Instead of a 1% chance, you might have a 30% chance just by virtue of the number of times you try.

Solid post, and particularly this part. Thank you for your perspective. I'd agree that simply deciding not to quit greatly increases the odds. Because if you give yourself 5 years to make it, your chances of making it are obviously much lower than a person who's not going to quit, even after 10 or 15 years. In publishing, this may be the difference between putting out just 5 books vs 15, one of which strikes it big.

I'm really enjoying all the perspectives in this thread. Grateful for all the responses!

 

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[solyom]

Then a real entrepreneur, when sees a trend like that (e.g. lots of people want to become influencers), builds a service that can be sold to many of these gold diggers.

Just think about Canva: how many influencers are using it to create FB / Instagram content. While Canva earns big amount of money serving them.

As the saying goes: in times of gold rush, sell shovels.

 

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[KenDunlop]

In the most glamorous, dream-driven niches, business models, or careers, the harsh reality is that very few people reach the top. For example, the vast majority of actors are broke. Most novelists make peanuts. Wannabe influencers will never reach the high level of success they expect. Most bloggers will quit before they start making any money, let alone reaching five or six figures.

Knowing the harsh reality (or perhaps ignoring it?), most people still pursue these most popular businesses, thinking that they'll be special, that the statistics apply only to other people. Sometimes it's caused by their belief that you need to do what you love. But often it's not even that. They just see so many people making a living in a given niche (say, YouTubers) that they think they can do it, too. But the competition is so fierce that the odds are stacked against them.

How do you protect yourself against this naive thinking that the harsh reality doesn't apply to you? I mean, if most novelists end up making pennies and just a handful of authors make most money, what makes you think that you'll be better than them? Why not launch a business with very few competitors where you have much higher chances of success?

Or do you believe that if you really care about pursuing a given business, you'll succeed no matter what the reality is for most people?

I try to avoid thinking about 'the odds'. Let's say I want to become a world-famous bodybuilder like Arnold Schwarzenegger. (I don't, but whatever). When Arnold was young, people rightly told him that there was no money in bodybuilding. Lots of people probably told him the 'chances' of reaching his goal were very low. But think of it this way; if you go to the gym, even once, the 'chances' of you becoming a world-famous bodybuilder just went up, and you made them go up proactively, you didn't roll a dice.
Arnold worked out for five hours a day, every day, just like his hero Reg Park. And when he achieved his bodybuilder physique, he didn't stop there. He was active in getting attention in Hollywood for bodybuilding and starred in a film documentary. He made sure he became a famous bodybuilder, all just as a stepping stone to his acting career!

 

[Empires]

Interesting topic.

Ever since I was a kid the way I talked myself out of being nervous when trying new things, was to tell myself that if other people can do it then so can I.

This is true for most things and has helped me a lot through life. When I became a mechanic I had to get my CDL to drive a bus, but I wasn't nervous because there are thousands of bus drivers so if they can do it then so can I.

Obviously it is not a true statement, just because others are in the NBA doesn't mean I can be. But I bet you I can become a damn good basketball player, because guess what? There are thousands of other great basketball players that aren't in the NBA so I could be too. (I suck at basketball for the record)

I guess I am part of the naive thinkers who think the odds don't apply to them, because I agree with what you're saying. Most people won't make it, and the odds are stacked against us.

But there is not a second where I don't think I am going to make it. Naivety? Confidence? I'm not sure.

And at the end of the day, the worst odds you have of succeeding are if you don't try at all.

 

[Sethamus]

Since Arnold Schwarzenegger was brought up early in this topic I’ll drop this video.

He didn’t have passion, he had goals. He then put in the work very few people would to achieve those goals. That is a big mindset difference and taking action compared to most.

 

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[MTF]

Then a real entrepreneur, when sees a trend like that (e.g. lots of people want to become influencers), builds a service that can be sold to many of these gold diggers.

Just think about Canva: how many influencers are using it to create FB / Instagram content. While Canva earns big amount of money serving them.

As the saying goes: in times of gold rush, sell shovels.

Very good point. You're essentially still benefiting from a huge, established market, but with 1/10, if not 1/100 the competition as way fewer people sell shovels.

I don't think I tell anything new here with mentioning the survivorship bias.

You never hear of the guy who tries to be a novelist but fails.

You always see just the radiant successful ones.

Survivorship Bias

The Misconception: You should focus on the successful if you wish to become successful. The Truth: When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisib…

www.google.de

Good observation and another reason to be cautious when getting tips from successful people. As the article points out:

In short, the advice business is a monopoly run by survivors. As the psychologist Daniel Kahneman writes in his book Thinking Fast and Slow, “A stupid decision that works out well becomes a brilliant decision in hindsight.”

I talked with a lot of "Digital Nomads" while I was in Gran Canaria who really had a naïve view of business and who were believing incredible bullshit from various marketing gurus. And they did not even seem to be interested to hear about the experience and information that I was trying to give them so that they would not waste months of their life on a project that had no chance of success...

Many digital nomads don't care about making more than perhaps $5k a month. It's more than enough to live like a king in SE Asia and many other places. Their priorities are different and maybe they really don't care about improving their business.

Here the point about survivorship bias is very relevant. Elon is an outlier, plain and simple. He's a business genius with a lot of luck. Not that he can't give good advice; it's just that his advice won't apply to most mortals.

I try to avoid thinking about 'the odds'. Let's say I want to become a world-famous bodybuilder like Arnold Schwarzenegger. (I don't, but whatever). When Arnold was young, people rightly told him that there was no money in bodybuilding. Lots of people probably told him the 'chances' of reaching his goal were very low. But think of it this way; if you go to the gym, even once, the 'chances' of you becoming a world-famous bodybuilder just went up, and you made them go up proactively, you didn't roll a dice.
Arnold worked out for five hours a day, every day, just like his hero Reg Park. And when he achieved his bodybuilder physique, he didn't stop there. He was active in getting attention in Hollywood for bodybuilding and starred in a film documentary. He made sure he became a famous bodybuilder, all just as a stepping stone to his acting career!

So given the chance to know your odds, you still wouldn't think about them? If, for example, through research you could learn that 1 in 1000 people become successful bodybuilders, but 1 in 100 people become successful business owners selling products for bodybuilders, you would still prefer not to think about it if your primary goal was to make money in this industry?

 

[Black_Dragon43]

I guess I believe reality. I do agree that you can very often achieve whatever you want with the right formula. But sometimes life chooses for you. You can simply be in the right place at the right time while someone else isn't.

Entrepreneurs do like to avoid talking about it. But even for the world's greatest entrepreneurs, luck played a big role. Elon Musk would have failed with SpaceX if it wasn't for that final try that worked out.

In my case, one person told me something that is basically responsible for my business success. If it wasn't for her, I'd probably never figure it out. So I was lucky in this aspect. You could say that I was hanging out in the right environment and it was another matter of cause and effect. But most actors live in California, yet most work as waiters lol.

Absolutely... most of the make or break things seem to be chance occurrences, looking back. And how could it be otherwise? Life occurs through specific, super concrete events, not through abstract, general principles.

As you remarked in your case, one conversation was a turning point.

However, these things are not possible unless we take action, action guided by abstract, general principles. Unless we put one foot in front of another, doing what it takes to move our mission forward.

You did not know that that conversation would be a turning point for you. You had no way of knowing. In that way, you can look at it as a chance occurrence. That you met this specific person, and they said the specific thing. But the fact that you WERE interested to take action and move ahead is what made that conversation possible in the first place. If you had not applied the general principle of taking action, and moving forward, that conversation would not have happened.

Same thing for Elon Musk. He would have failed if he hadn't applied certain principles, such as never giving up, learning from his mistakes, and so on. The application of general principles, over the long run, makes "luck" possible. Your cumulative chance of success expands over time.

 

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[splok]

Knowing the harsh reality (or perhaps ignoring it?), most people still pursue these most popular businesses, thinking that they'll be special, that the statistics apply only to other people.

How do you protect yourself against this naive thinking that the harsh reality doesn't apply to you?

As Ronak basically says, looking at the distribution of winners and losers only really matters if all participants are equally skilled (or if skill doesn't matter). It's possible to look at a market rationally and decide that you have the ability to outperform the leaders. Whether you're right or not is the real question.

I think the only real protection is familiarity with the market in question (well, and also a reasonably accurate view of your own abilities). Can you explain exactly why the current winners are winning? If you can't, then either you aren't familiar enough or it's luck. Assuming you think you know what makes them successful, can you find other participants that tick the same boxes but aren't successful? if so, then either you're missing something or its luck. Then assuming you've nailed the winning formula and that you can outperform it, how responsive is the market to new entries? There are plenty of places where your product can be better but not "better enough" to make anyone switch.

Of course, that's probably still insufficient analysis, but if you can do that, I think it safely rises above naive.

 

[Fr33zerPop]

I can't seem to find the Seth Godin article I read this from, but one of the traits of successful entrepreneurs he mentions is an almost delusional belief in oneself.

You mention the harsh reality that most people never make it. One aspect that Seth Godin believes that entrepreneurs share is that they simply don't worry about the possibility of not making it, because it's just not an option in their minds. Limiting beliefs? None whatsoever. Fear? Of course they're afraid, but it's not failure that they're afraid of. They're much more afraid of being wrong now and having to pivot painfully and slowly. Thing is, they know that they will pivot if they're wrong. It's just a fact of life. If they're wrong, they will lose money, investors will lose money, people will lose confidence, and they'll have to go through more pain to try and make their vision a reality. It sucks, but it is what it is.

Quit? Never. Pivot? Maybe, hopefully not but maybe.

Most people quit before they reach their destination anyway (see: OPs avatar picture) so if you never really stop, then your odds of making it vastly increase because you're always in the game. Instead of a 1% chance, you might have a 30% chance just by virtue of the number of times you try.

I agree. I can't remember who said it but they said most entrepreneur failure is in EXECUTION (Maybe Seth Godin in The Dip). While we certainly can fail at our actions, more likely we simply fail to move forward. We (often implicitly) decide it's not worth our time or money to continue to work toward the goal. BUT-- this assessment is often made not out of a quality critical assessment of the viability, but rather simply out of the desire to go do something with easier/immediate rewards.

 

[Fr33zerPop]

Thanks a lot! You are right, nobody would steal my idea for a saturated market. So the idea is coloring books. Since I am already a fiction writer, I also hope that the additional content would help me with amazon algorithm. But this is not the main reason. The main reason is, that I have practiced pen drawing my whole life, I just didn‘t see what I should do with it, because it seemed just too ridiculous to make money with such a simple skill . Now I finally see the elephant in the room.
I have checked a lot of different coloring books on amazon. There is still demand, according to the reviews. I have list of things, that people like/dislike, and can clearly see why some books are loved and most are not.

I think that's a great idea. If I were trying to evaluate it, I'd put these pieces together:
-- The qualities you see that the market is still buying
-- Avoiding the qualities that are fading (adult coloring therapy books maybe?)
-- A visual subject that is largely untapped in coloring books (I've seen a lot of patterns and flowers, but not as much architecture, pizza, or maps for example)
-- A non-visual theme that I'm passionate about (health and wellness, Jesus, electronic music, relationships)
-- My target purchaser (I should know who I want to buy these: adults for themselves for fun, adults for their kids, adults for their kids to give as a gift to another kid, adults to give as a gift to another adult, gag gift, wedding gift, office gift, graduation gift, curriculum or therapy bulk purchase, personal organization... It will probably only fit one of these categories)
-- My target price (making sure it aligns with my purchaser's motives)
-- How my unique perspective/art will make it special (this is where you insulate from faster/cheaper competition)

Then, I'd take that brainstorm page and try to come up with new connections that I hadn't thought of, like...
-- A wedding coloring book for the guests in attendance (gift)
-- A kids coloring book with hand-drawn brick (formerly known as Lego) favorite kids foods
-- A personal diary/journal that has coloring pages for goals/achievements.

So, you probably already know what you want to make, but maybe this sparks some new ideas for niching down if you're feeling like the market is too wide. If you could sell it at a Saturday market, there's probably an online audience out there for you. You could even promote it with YouTube videos that point people back to it, like free drawing tutorials, or pen/paper/pencil reviews.

Hope your entrepreneurial gears are whirring...

 

[Primeperiwinkle]

You could always use Bayes Theorem..


The Theory That Would Not Die by Sharon McGrayne

Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions by Schlaifer and Raiffa

Superforecasting The Art and Science of Predicting by Philip Tetlock

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don’t Have All The Facts by Annie Duke

Probability, Frequency, and Reasonable Expectation by R.T. Cox

Applied Statistical Decision Theory by Raiffa and Schlaifer

An Introduction to Markov Chains by Schlaifer


This is from the preface in the first book..

“In a celebrated example of science gone awry, geologists accumulated the evidence for Continental Drift in 1912 and then spent 50 years arguing that continents cannot move. The scientific battle over Bayes’ rule is less well known but lasted far longer, for 150 years. It concerned a broader and more fundamental issue: how we analyze evidence, change our minds as we get new information, and make rational decisions in the face of uncertainty. And it was not resolved until the dawn of the twenty-first century. On its face Bayes’ rule is a simple, one-line theorem: by updating our initial belief about something with objective new information, we get a new and improved belief. To its adherents, this is an elegant statement about learning from experience.”

Anyhoo.. it’s basically a mathematical way of looking at the world that helps you make radical yet HIGHLY effective decisions based on the information or lack of information that you have. Bayes Theorem has changed almost every aspect of the world we live in.. yet most ppl have never heard of it.

 

[.B.]

So would you say that it's just ignorance, or perhaps even willingly choosing not to know the reality so as not to demotivate yourself? I guess that many desperate people may think that their chosen popular business idea "has to work." If the odds are stacked against them, they just won't listen. Because IT HAS TO WORK.

Ignorance for many.
And for some, it is because their subconscious mind filters out any information that does not fit with their current beliefs. To a point that it will seem to you that they act totally irrationally.
That is probably when you get the impression that they won't listen.

I talked with a lot of "Digital Nomads" while I was in Gran Canaria who really had a naïve view of business and who were believing incredible bullshit from various marketing gurus. And they did not even seem to be interested to hear about the experience and information that I was trying to give them so that they would not waste months of their life on a project that had no chance of success...

 

[KenDunlop]

Very good point. You're essentially still benefiting from a huge, established market, but with 1/10, if not 1/100 the competition as way fewer people sell shovels.



Good observation and another reason to be cautious when getting tips from successful people. As the article points out:

In short, the advice business is a monopoly run by survivors. As the psychologist Daniel Kahneman writes in his book Thinking Fast and Slow, “A stupid decision that works out well becomes a brilliant decision in hindsight.”



Many digital nomads don't care about making more than perhaps $5k a month. It's more than enough to live like a king in SE Asia and many other places. Their priorities are different and maybe they really don't care about improving their business.



Here the point about survivorship bias is very relevant. Elon is an outlier, plain and simple. He's a business genius with a lot of luck. Not that he can't give good advice; it's just that his advice won't apply to most mortals.



So given the chance to know your odds, you still wouldn't think about them? If, for example, through research you could learn that 1 in 1000 people become successful bodybuilders, but 1 in 100 people become successful business owners selling products for bodybuilders, you would still prefer not to think about it if your primary goal was to make money in this industry?

I've got a very goal-based approach to this. If your goal was simply 'succeed in the bodybuilding industry' and you knew you had a better 'chance', or less resistance, selling products to bodybuilders then that would be a legitimate way to do it.

If, like Arnold, your goal was specifically to become a world-famous bodybuilder, then you won't want to look at the easier option because it doesn't align with your goals.
I think Arnold's girlfriend at one point wanted him to 'settle down' and work in a health food store in LA, so this more or less actually happened. Before then, he had people in Austria telling him not to go to America and just become a police officer like his Dad. His 'chances' at those occupations might well have been better, but he wasn't interested.

 

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[MTF]

If, like Arnold, your goal was specifically to become a world-famous bodybuilder, then you won't want to look at the easier option because it doesn't align with your goals.

I understand. That's a good way to discern between two completely different things: doing something sexy because everyone else is doing it and you hope you can be one of the cool kids (say, being an influencer) and doing something sexy/unsexy/doesn't matter because YOU want to do it and care about it so much you don't care about the odds at all.

 

[Ronak]

There are plenty of places where your product can be better but not "better enough" to make anyone switch.

This is a huge deal! Entrepreneurs automatically assume that if a product/service is better, then you will automatically win. It likely has to be at least twice as good as the current offering to make a dent. Otherwise, your timing is probably more important than how much better the offer is. If you release something that's 50% better, but after another competitor has gained traction, you would've been better off shipping earlier, even if it wasn't "ready" or was inferior to your later version.

 

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[MTF]

Can you explain exactly why the current winners are winning?

Sometimes there's no way to explain it. You can't always understand why someone is winning because you can't replicate their process/environment/state of the world when they started exactly.

- Some people will aim big won't have the ability to reach the top and probably should have done something else (10-15%)

What makes you think that you don't belong to this group? Ultimately that's what this thread is about. We think we are better than others. But others also think they're better than others.

Also on this topic:

I assume I’m below average | Derek Sivers

 

[TinyOldLady]

I am currently in a situation, that relates to this thread, and I would love to hear your opinion.
There is this product I want to create, but just because I think it would be the best use of my skills.
The harsh reality is, the hype of the product is gone a couple of years ago and there is a lot of products like this in the world. I did some research. Many of the products are really shitty, made to ride the wave apparently. I can clearly see what I can improve (what kind of value I will provide), I checked some of my options and I am willing to put in the time.
Though I am good at this skill, it will be a lot of work, so I am not going to do it out of passion, but because I think this is somehow my best chance to create a nice product for people.
So despite the faded hype I still plan (actually started) to create this product, see what happens, and hopefully learn a lot in the process.
What do you think? What would you do in my case? Even if I am fooling myself and there will be no added value to the saturated market, isn‘t it better to try, instead of not trying?
I just fight a lot with that voice in my head, that say: maaaan, you always miss the train

(PS: @MTF this year I have finally published my first fiction, as I promised on my INSIDERS thread 4 years ago. It feels really different than I imagined I am officially an author now and my next book is currently being edited)

 

[The-J]

From Ray Dalio's book "Principles"

 

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[sparechange]

People generally pursue the path of least resistance, which is why drop shipping for example took off in such a big way.

 

[Fr33zerPop]

Made me think of this thread:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-JgG0ECp2U

His sarcasm is saying that doing everything "right" is no guarantee, and the advice from successful people is likely horribly near-sighted. We're terrible at identifying when we got a random or inherent leg up--mistakenly thinking others will have a similar experience.*

1) Learn to be hyper-aware of what makes your situation unique, and strategize with enthusiasm your unique place/skill/passion/experience/angle/product for someone else's unique solution. For me, I'd rather sell "my unique" thing to 10000 people than compete to sell the obvious thing to 7 billion.

2) Random situations will give some people more favorable opportunities than others--but we can change the frequency of ours. Learn what "a good opportunity" would be in your situation and make yourself more available to them. This might mean more networking, pressing through that one big fear you're trying to avoid, or dropping pride/laziness/fear and really evaluating your audience's need--and adjusting your product. We can't make the opportunity bus come by our house more often, but we CAN be on the curb, shoes tied, ready to jump on.

* Want a good example? I've seen tons of people selling "make your own video course" be-a-millionaire courses. They teach all the "steps" of their journey, but fail to recognize that they are highly motivated, very charismatic people--essential to their success. Many people will fail using their product because they don't have similar personality skills developed.

 

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[Deleted73907]

I don't think I tell anything new here with mentioning the survivorship bias.

You never hear of the guy who tries to be a novelist but fails.

You always see just the radiant successful ones.

Survivorship Bias

The Misconception: You should focus on the successful if you wish to become successful. The Truth: When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisib…

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