Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Timmy C]

What do you think about analyzing the crypto charts like the stock charts?
A friend yesterday said, he does it and will make much money that way.
But I don’t think you can compare that 1:1

I had some stocks I got rid of lastly .But I allways do the wrong.

I would focus more on fundamental analysis than technical analysis.

Most traders get Rekt. 90% + don't out perform holders. But im SURE @James Fake is the exception.

I just buy and hold.
I do use TA sometimes, but I maybe sell some alts like 6 months after buying usually.

One position I've hold for more than 2 years and have just taken profit along the way.

The only coins I have not taken profit on is BTC and ETH and I am okay with that.

If you don't know what your doing, well, I don't what to say.

Someone csn tell you, but your ultimately the one that decides when to hit buy and sell for better or worse.

 

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[Thinh]

Buy and hold is a lot more safer than trading, but it also takes much more time to make money
As always, it's a risk/reward thing.

As for selling Bitcoin (or not), no one can predict where the market goes, just make assumptions with different probabilities.
Right now, we're ranging, and as long as bitcoin stays above 28k I wouldn't expect another major correction.
IF it goes below this though, I'd think a lot about selling. Sure, HODLing works. I'm also bullish in the long term, so I believe it will eventually go towards 6 figures. But if you sell 1 $BTC at $28k and it goes down to $14k, well you can buy two. This is why selling is much better than hodling, in this precise case.

 

[GPM]

The largest reason for me thinking these prices suck is that mining difficulty has also increased, and my ethereum payouts are down by like 40% now compared to a few months ago. Guess that's the trend it is taking anyways. I've increased my hashes 2x recently, and payouts in ethereum are relatively the same.

So lower prices and lower payouts are a double kick in the nuts

 

[Matt Sun]

Honestly, I sold. I'm not a great crypto investor, I'm happy I got mi money back from my loses of 2017 and I also put some money in February and sold in April for a nice fast profit. (I "lost" a lot in the last crash thought, I would have been much better if I sold all higher). But hey, I'm actually making money instead of losing !
Since btc passed the previous ath of 20K, I had always believed it will be at that price again sooner or later, maybe in a few months, maybe in a few years. I sold some days ago cause I still believe that and I'll wait to buy at 10-20K price point.

 

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[Antifragile]

 

[nitrousflame]

Honestly, I sold. I'm not a great crypto investor, I'm happy I got mi money back from my loses of 2017 and I also put some money in February and sold in April for a nice fast profit. (I "lost" a lot in the last crash thought, I would have been much better if I sold all higher). But hey, I'm actually making money instead of losing !
Since btc passed the previous ath of 20K, I had always believed it will be at that price again sooner or later, maybe in a few months, maybe in a few years. I sold some days ago cause I still believe that and I'll wait to buy at 10-20K price point.

 

[Timmy C]

So many people here seem to forget the first rule of investing.
Buy low sell high. Nothing has changed in the value proposition apart from the price of the assets, and now, you want to sell.
That's not investing, that's gambling and letting your emotions lead your decisions.
If your thinking about selling because you are down, you invested more than you can afford to lose.
Full stop.

 

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[Ocean Man]

So many people here seem to forget the first rule of investing.
Buy low sell high. Nothing has changed in the value proposition apart from the price of the assets, and now, you want to sell.
That's not investing, that's gambling and letting your emotions lead your decisions.
If your thinking about selling because you are down, you invested more than you can afford to lose.
Full stop.

It’s not about selling because we’re down, I’m perfectly fine where I’m at. The only reason I would sell is that I’d think the market keeps dipping to where I can sell right now and get way more than I currently have if it’s really a large dip.

No fear right now. Prices are returning somewhat so it’s fine.

 

[Timmy C]

It’s not about selling because we’re down, I’m perfectly fine where I’m at. The only reason I would sell is that I’d think the market keeps dipping to where I can sell right now and get way more than I currently have if it’s really a large dip.

No fear right now. Prices are returning somewhat so it’s fine.

Yeh that's cool man.
Just remember when you factor in CGT, it isn't worth it a lot of the time.

 

[ZF Lee]

Think it ultimately depends, I feel like the market is a bit weird at the moment. I've done the same thing in the stock market, continuously lowering my dollar cost average and ended up holding huge bags for a long time. Which weren't worth it.

The markets could go up, they could stay flat, or they could go down. Nobody really knows. But it'd be nice if it did go down to have pulled out beforehand and purchase more at a significantly lower price than what I would've got than if I held.

Definitely bullish long-term, I just think there's a coming correction that would drop prices significantly again and it'd be great to take advantage of that.

Trying reading up Tom Williams' work on Volume Spread Analysis (VSA)
And then The Secret Science of Price and Volume by Tim Ord. I've found these books helped me understand how to read charts much better and even see potential bottoms.

For DCA, I've felt safer to do it mindlessly for mutual funds, but for stocks, I'd have planned a limit on how much and how to continue dollar-cost averaging.

We also need to see why it dipped in the first place...was it to correct the charts back to a moving average, say 20-day or 60-day MA after an all-high peak? Predicting a potential bad news incoming? Sector rotation turning to another industry?

One of my theories on why the market is weird is because we now have too many retailers who SHOULDN'T be in the markets, but there they are.

So when the smart-money buys/sells amass, the retailers just fall for the usual traps and the panic buying/selling become even worse- their emotions are even more desperate.

I would focus more on fundamental analysis than technical analysis.

Most traders get Rekt. 90% + don't out perform holders. But im SURE @James Fake is the exception.

I just buy and hold.
I do use TA sometimes, but I maybe sell some alts like 6 months after buying usually.

One position I've hold for more than 2 years and have just taken profit along the way.

The only coins I have not taken profit on is BTC and ETH and I am okay with that.

If you don't know what your doing, well, I don't what to say.

Someone csn tell you, but your ultimately the one that decides when to hit buy and sell for better or worse.

I don't understand how daytraders are happy nabbing pennies by buying/selling on the same day.

I'd rather be patient and wait for the stock/instrument to give me a much better return.
And this is where most traders fall short of ...patience. I myself have missed out good prices by buying early in the week, when Friday could be better lol.

I do some swing trades now and then, but they are more likely to work only if the overall market sector is bullish, and it has steadily kept to the moving average on a general uptrend before.

 

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[dgr]

What do you think about analyzing the crypto charts like the stock charts?
A friend yesterday said, he does it and will make much money that way.
But I don’t think you can compare that 1:1

I had some stocks I got rid of lastly .But I allways do the wrong.

I think crypto it's a different animal. Even with stocks, it's hard. You're competing against very intelligent, connected, and trained teams of people for whom it's their day job, and also algorithms.

It's worst than a lottery in my opinion. B/c with a lottery ticket you only invest a few minutes at worst. Trading takes a lot of hustle.

Buy and hold is a lot more safer than trading, but it also takes much more time to make money
As always, it's a risk/reward thing.

Well, how long it takes to make real money trading?

If you account for the time invested in training, being on top of it, the mistakes that make you lose a lot of cash, the time to recover that cash so you can trade again, etc, I think it takes actually much more time to make money trading than HODLing.

Better to spend that time in your business.

(And the emotional rollercoaster ride of trading will take years of your life for sure)

Edit to add:

I don't understand how daytraders are happy nabbing pennies by buying/selling on the same day.

The emotional spike of being right when gambling I guess.

 

[Ing]

One of the most fun things about crypto for me is following a jungle of cartoon animals

(The first newsletter I've paid for in my life tbh)

Imagine one scenario: you like meme coins and got some of anyhalf a year ago When it multiplied x10 allways change into other Meme coins. OMG Why didn’t I realize that,or at least got information about that crypto market , when my son told me 10 years ago.

 

[Timmy C]

 

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[Hai]

It’s not about selling because we’re down, I’m perfectly fine where I’m at. The only reason I would sell is that I’d think the market keeps dipping to where I can sell right now and get way more than I currently have if it’s really a large dip.

No fear right now. Prices are returning somewhat so it’s fine.

1. The more you trade the more mistakes you can make.
2. No fear, but greed for potentially better gains by trying to beat the market

 

[Timmy C]

1. The more you trade the more mistakes you can make.
2. No fear, but greed for potentially better gains by trying to beat the market

Selling after it's already dumped 50% + in hopes of buying in lower isn't exactly a great strategy IMO.

Keep buying I say!

 

[GerTex]

Something completely different about this cycle is the existence of DeFi. If you think we’re entering a bear market you can just exchange into stable coins and park them somewhere. Don’t have to stay on the sidelines completely.

Example: Invest them into AAVE, borrow 50% against your balance (get paid for borrowing by taking advantage of the MATIC special), then flip it into CURVE and make more $% there.

No praying if your coins go up or down - just safe % on your money.

 

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[Kevin88660]

How does it work, when I want to buy a relativ new crypto, which is only awaylable via pancakeswap? How does and is that save?
F.e. I would like to buy

MoonRetriever​

MoonRetriever price today, FETCH to USD live price, marketcap and chart | CoinMarketCap

The live MoonRetriever price today is $0 USD with a 24-hour trading volume of $0 USD. We update our FETCH to USD price in real-time.

coinmarketcap.com

Now

Need to download metamask, learn defi, set up bsc network, buy bnb the network token for fee.

Go to reddit section crypto moon shot and learn everything about new launch. What are doxxed dev, contract ownership renounced, liquidity locked? Learn how to navigate poocoin and coinhunt.

 

[mguerra]

Something completely different about this cycle is the existence of DeFi. If you think we’re entering a bear market you can just exchange into stable coins and park them somewhere. Don’t have to stay on the sidelines completely.

Example: Invest them into AAVE, borrow 50% against your balance (get paid for borrowing by taking advantage of the MATIC special), then flip it into CURVE and make more $% there.

No praying if your coins go up or down - just safe % on your money.

Do you have a link to a resource that explains how to do this?

 

[GerTex]

Ignore the sensational title. Enjoy the information. He explains it pretty well.

View: https://youtu.be/gZaMcMMSJwY

 

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[GerTex]

After stacking yields you'll be able to make somewhere between 10-60% yields per year. Not the 10x-100x people are going into crypto for but nice and stable without putting your money at risk.

Let me know if you have questions after watching that. Here to help.

 

[mguerra]

Ignore the sensational title. Enjoy the information. He explains it pretty well.

View: https://youtu.be/gZaMcMMSJwY

Thanks brother. I'll have my first experience with DeFi this week.

 

[FreeMan]

Long time reader, first time poster on this thread...

I bought a little bit of Ethereum back in 2017 and am looking to buy some more again as I like its value prop as the next internet, world computer, etc. I've only started to look into this space again, so I'm still a noob.

I know the gas fees are high and they're looking to fix that, but I just can't wrap my head around the correlation between ETH, the token's price, and the gas fees.

Even if they reduce the gas fees substantially from what they are now, wouldn't the relative increase in the ETH (token's) price offset any gas fee reduction?

So if the current gas fee is 50 gwei and is reduced 5x to 10 gwei, but the price of ETH shoots up 5x, doesn't the gas fee reduction get cancelled out by the higher ETH price?

So I'm thinking that a high ETH price is the opposite of what you want for lower gas fees for more widespread usage and adoption of the network. Or am I totally missing something?

 

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[Kevin88660]

Long time reader, first time poster on this thread...

I bought a little bit of Ethereum back in 2017 and am looking to buy some more again as I like its value prop as the next internet, world computer, etc. I've only started to look into this space again, so I'm still a noob.

I know the gas fees are high and they're looking to fix that, but I just can't wrap my head around the correlation between ETH, the token's price, and the gas fees.

Even if they reduce the gas fees substantially from what they are now, wouldn't the relative increase in the ETH (token's) price offset any gas fee reduction?

So if the current gas fee is 50 gwei and is reduced 5x to 10 gwei, but the price of ETH shoots up 5x, doesn't the gas fee reduction get cancelled out by the higher ETH price?

So I'm thinking that a high ETH price is the opposite of what you want for lower gas fees for more widespread usage and adoption of the network. Or am I totally missing something?

A lot of ETH demand come from using in the ethereum network system, and high gas fee could drive then out to competitor like bsc network. Hence less demand for eth.

 

[FreeMan]

A lot of ETH demand come from using in the ethereum network system, and high gas fee could drive then out to competitor like bsc network. Hence less demand for eth.

Sure, I understand people may look at alternative networks if gas fees stay high.

But if I am bullish on the Ethereum network, should I be bearish on the ETH price?

 

[Timmy C]

A lot of ETH demand come from using in the ethereum network system, and high gas fee could drive then out to competitor like bsc network. Hence less demand for eth.

BSc isn't a competitor.

They are a centralized scam Ponzi that have sacrificed decentralization for speed.

Problems Eth is solving.

 

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[Kevin88660]

Sure, I understand people may look at alternative networks if gas fees stay high.

But if I am bullish on the Ethereum network, should I be bearish on the ETH price?

High eth price does not deter user from using the network.

Because the gas fee is to a large extend “priced in dollars” not in eth. If it cost 100 US dollar a transaction, higher eth price just mean less eth needed per transaction.

 

[Kevin88660]

BSc isn't a competitor.

They are a centralized scam Ponzi that have sacrificed decentralization for speed.

Problems Eth is solving.

Most of the users are using to make money, looking for risk adjusted return. Saying that bsc has greater centralization risk is just making it risker in one aspect with regard to a tail risk event. Most investment could fail due to rug pull, project failure, hack and many others which are far more likely than bsc chain failing. And the market has spoken that high transaction fee is not worth it for the extra decentralization offered by ethereum network for non-whales.

 

[Timmy C]

Most of the users are using to make money, looking for risk adjusted return. Saying that bsc has greater centralization risk is just making it risker in one aspect with regard to a tail risk event. Most investment could fail due to rug pull, project failure, hack and many others which are far more likely than bsc chain failing. And the market has spoken that high transaction fee is not worth it for the extra decentralization offered by ethereum network for non-whales.

That will pass though.

BSc has no longevity. Just my opinion.

 

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[CryptoCurt]

Sounds so easy.....

But just if you can leave all emotions aside. What do you think?

 

[Timmy C]

Sounds so easy.....
View attachment 38211View attachment 38212
But just if you can leave all emotions aside. What do you think?

It is easy.
Buy the blood, even if it's yours.

FOMO buy the blood.

Several here say they want to/have sold.
That's always a buy signal.