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Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

AceVentures

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I think Bitcoins place in this ecosystem is secure and its value will continue to grow, as the baseline / reserve cryptocurrency.

You have put an awful lot of emphasis on ETH though here. I don't think this is necessarily correct and don't ever see ETH as the one and only home for DeFi in a winner takes all scenario. I think what is more likely is an eco system of many blockchains, with eventual interoperability, ETHs fees will remain (relatively) high but this is in return for its superior security, I think there will be a spectrum of blockchains to cater across the board, of which ETH will be one part of.

The article and the post I made did not make a winner take all assumption if you read it - in fact it makes the case for lower market capture, hence the more conservative 0.1% and 0.5% estimates for perspective. Additional efficiencies brought about by these cost-reducing algorithms and earnings generated mostly by dApps are presented within the framework we're assuming.

You can have multiple base settlement layers, but it is my bet that there really wouldn't be a need for multiples of this function, especially once you start getting more interoperability with ETH. What you want is a more decentralization, more secure, and faster base settlement layer, not necessarily more chains for this specific purpose.

If ETH gains on this, which I'm betting by this summer it will begin to really shine, then other base layers may not be as useful for global settlement purposes.

1618864044727.png

Other building blocks in the DeFi stack still have a long way to go and many fascinating projects are taking a jab at offering the most unique value proposition to users. I'm just not convinced we need 5 different settlement layers - I just need 1 really good, fast, decentralized one to secure all of my transactions.

I'm increasingly convinced that most problems can be solved with L2 and additional EIPs with new ERC standards. You have all of the elements you need... It's the creativity that's yet to catch up with the possibilities, it's not that we need more use-case-specific L1s. In fact I think the extra constraints or "rules" set up in the DOT ecosystem will workout against it in the long term. I think innovation requires flexibility and freedom - ETH offers more of this than DOT, which imposes all kinds of rules for the game. Maybe the extra rules makes the game stronger, or maybe it encourages the players and builders to switch to a more open sandbox.

In my estimation, Chainlink or maybe even some other Decentralized Oracle Network will be able to relay any information on and off chain. In that scenario, why do you need a Polkadot? It's faster! but ETH gets faster with DPoS and sharding. dApps on DOT can natively interact with each other! Link will allow any blockchain to speak to any piece of information - so once you have a scalable global settle network that can operate cheap and efficiently, all you need to do is plug data to it. That's how my thinking goes right now...

Anyway that's my understanding of it all where I stand today. I could change my stance as I learn more and I always welcome discussion so I may learn from differing perspectives.
 
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Timmy C

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The article and the post I made did not make a winner take all assumption if you read it - in fact it makes the case for lower market capture, hence the more conservative 0.1% and 0.5% estimates for perspective. Additional efficiencies brought about by these cost-reducing algorithms and earnings generated mostly by dApps are presented within the framework we're assuming.

You can have multiple base settlement layers, but it is my bet that there really wouldn't be a need for multiples of this function, especially once you start getting more interoperability with ETH. What you want is a more decentralization, more secure, and faster base settlement layer, not necessarily more chains for this specific purpose.

If ETH gains on this, which I'm betting by this summer it will begin to really shine, then other base layers may not be as useful for global settlement purposes.

View attachment 37639

Other building blocks in the DeFi stack still have a long way to go and many fascinating projects are taking a jab at offering the most unique value proposition to users. I'm just not convinced we need 5 different settlement layers - I just need 1 really good, fast, decentralized one to secure all of my transactions.

I'm increasingly convinced that most problems can be solved with L2 and additional EIPs with new ERC standards. You have all of the elements you need... It's the creativity that's yet to catch up with the possibilities, it's not that we need more use-case-specific L1s. In fact I think the extra constraints or "rules" set up in the DOT ecosystem will workout against it in the long term. I think innovation requires flexibility and freedom - ETH offers more of this than DOT, which imposes all kinds of rules for the game. Maybe the extra rules makes the game stronger, or maybe it encourages the players and builders to switch to a more open sandbox.

In my estimation, Chainlink or maybe even some other Decentralized Oracle Network will be able to relay any information on and off chain. In that scenario, why do you need a Polkadot? It's faster! but ETH gets faster with DPoS and sharding. dApps on DOT can natively interact with each other! Link will allow any blockchain to speak to any piece of information - so once you have a scalable global settle network that can operate cheap and efficiently, all you need to do is plug data to it. That's how my thinking goes right now...

Anyway that's my understanding of it all where I stand today. I could change my stance as I learn more and I always welcome discussion so I may learn from differing perspectives.
Link effectively has a monopoly on the oracle space.
 

Timmy C

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Yep - seems more and more like it. Again I ask the group, what is your bear market catalyst? Everything points to up-only, and I haven't found a likely catalyst for change in the opposite direction.

This was on CNBC today - and I don't think the market has swallowed it whole yet. But China seems to be open to crypto... surprise surprise! Li Bo, who was appointed by the People's Bank of China as the deputy governor just last week, is now declaring cryptocurrencies as viable investment alternatives.

Fun question, how much would it cost the PBOC to invest in a sizeable bag across every prominent DeFi ecosystem? How much would it cost them if for 10 years they've been strategically buying a small share of the possible infrastructure of the future? Relative to their GDP I mean. It seems like a drop in a sea of money for China. I mean think about it, they're led by engineers. For 10-12 years since Bitcoin first came out, the secret service or the intelligence agencies or whoever the hell knows a thing or two about networking in China doesn't get the memo about this? This is pure speculation but interesting to think about.
The bear market catalyst is these plebs leverage trading.

This thread is a top signal indicator, go back to 2017 and see how excited people where then in this thread.
Between 2017 up until now, no one gave a crap about crypto tech, no one wanted to learn about it.

It's only been me and a few others since.
 

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Can you imagine the IOT related to crypto?

On my mind I’ve thought about basic things, like a vending machine that accepts crypto, door locks that unlock at your address, and more. Not entirely sure yet if these are valid use-cases but just thinking about what we can do with a digital currency and address.
 
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James Fake

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Guys..... we're getting close. And by "close".. I think many knows what that means lol.

The weekly ascending triangle broke down and did a fake breakout. The price action was a big warning shot that matches the sentiment that I've been sitting and waiting and waiting and waiting for.... and its here.

Its a shame that we may not see $70k... let alone $100k, but..... it feels about right. In December 2017; around $17k, everybody was screaming $25k easy. Seems most folks including me was shouting $70-77k and well

$19k divided by $25k = 76%

$64k divided by $75-78k = 70-80%ish range.

What a ride it was.
 

Timmy C

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Guys..... we're getting close. And by "close".. I think many knows what that means lol.

The weekly ascending triangle broke down and did a fake breakout. The price action was a big warning shot that matches the sentiment that I've been sitting and waiting and waiting and waiting for.... and its here.

Its a shame that we may not see $70k... let alone $100k, but..... it feels about right. In December 2017; around $17k, everybody was screaming $25k easy. Seems most folks including me was shouting $70-77k and well

$19k divided by $25k = 76%

$64k divided by $75-78k = 70-80%ish range.

What a ride it was.

God forbid if we get a red month after 6 months of higher prices.
The world is ending.
 

Timmy C

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What do you notice on ALL blow-off tops?
None of them consolidated for up to 3 months, and it wasn't a slight move down, it was a straight 70% dump overnight.
 
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Frinys

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Guys..... we're getting close. And by "close".. I think many knows what that means lol.

The weekly ascending triangle broke down and did a fake breakout. The price action was a big warning shot that matches the sentiment that I've been sitting and waiting and waiting and waiting for.... and its here.

Its a shame that we may not see $70k... let alone $100k, but..... it feels about right. In December 2017; around $17k, everybody was screaming $25k easy. Seems most folks including me was shouting $70-77k and well

$19k divided by $25k = 76%

$64k divided by $75-78k = 70-80%ish range.

What a ride it was.
Out of curiosity, do you trade based on your predictions?

If so, how is your portfolio doing compared to just holding?
 

Timmy C

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I can honestly say I haven't sold a single sat in year's.

Not a single gwei.

I have 100% taken profit on everything else haha.
 
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Timmy C

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Peer to peer.
Your welcome.
found this one, but it requires phone number and email. Trade limit is $1282

I find with local bitcoins etc, they require ID.
Not much point in OTC if you have to give your data.
Requires some hustle to not give that stuff over.
 
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Timmy C

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The Crypto Anarchist Manifesto 1988 below:​

''The State will of course try to slow or halt the spread of this technology, citing national security concerns, use of the technology by drug dealers and tax evaders, and fears of societal disintegration.''​

Lol dead accurate considering this was published in 1988!​

 

PeterBoss

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Can you imagine the IOT related to crypto?

On my mind I’ve thought about basic things, like a vending machine that accepts crypto, door locks that unlock at your address, and more. Not entirely sure yet if these are valid use-cases but just thinking about what we can do with a digital currency and address.
You could, once you solve some issues. Most likely level 2 solutions, akin to how current card payments work would enable that kind of thing.
 
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PeterBoss

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Someone has to sell the top.

What will they buy?

Surely not bitcoin or eth...

I think we will see many more altcoins go on absurd runs ones it's over.
Yeah, this is my problem with most of the crypto scene... people just trying to get rich quick, buying whatever because 'to the moon' and having zero rationality.
Nothing wrong with supporting a project/network you want to see grow, or advocating for a set of ideas, but most of the stuff you read online is far from it.
Love the technical side of things, the ideological concepts behind some of it... but it seems the general public is set on turning everything they touch into crap .

I would even dare say... if someone buys a currency just looking for price appreciation, which is appreciating on the base currency you are quoting against. Then he/she has fundamentally misunderstood what the whole point was (unless you are hedging a position for any particular reason, which seems unlikely due to the maturity and use cases of these instruments).

Anyway, no one can save people from themselves, and unfortunately there are a lot more 'shitcoin buyers' than 'Satoshis' in the world.
 

Timmy C

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Yeah, this is my problem with most of the crypto scene... people just trying to get rich quick, buying whatever because 'to the moon' and having zero rationality.
Nothing wrong with supporting a project/network you want to see grow, or advocating for a set of ideas, but most of the stuff you read online is far from it.
Love the technical side of things, the ideological concepts behind some of it... but it seems the general public is set on turning everything they touch into crap .

I would even dare say... if someone buys a currency just looking for price appreciation, which is appreciating on the base currency you are quoting against. Then he/she has fundamentally misunderstood what the whole point was (unless you are hedging a position for any particular reason, which seems unlikely due to the maturity and use cases of these instruments).

Anyway, no one can save people from themselves, and unfortunately there are a lot more 'shitcoin buyers' than 'Satoshis' in the world.
Yeh it's full of greed.
There is far more speculation in crypto than other markets.
It's human nature. Getting rich quick is a possibility in this market for sure. Happens all the time.
I for one do not have the balls to buy heavily into scam coins.

I buy projects that I think have good potential for the long term, take profits on the more risky plays if I can.

And yes, you except to be compensated for taking on more risk and being an early investor.

That's why index fund returns are pathetic and or non existent.

Because everyone knows to do that.
 

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This time the money is likely to stay in the crypto circle
Lol, I think that you are underestimating the power of dumb money. If you remember back in 2017, people were literally getting second mortgages on their homes to buy bitcoin and bragging about it on twitter. It was all over the place. Think dude who dumps his life savings into something after it has gone parabolic and done a 3x in 3 days is going to stay in it? Nope, first sign of red and he sells at a massive loss and then cries about how much of a scam this is.

Google search interest for bitcoin and anything crypto related is at something like 30% today compared to what it was like at the last peak in 2017/18. Dumb money is not even close to there yet. Look what some reddit idiots did to Gamestop, just wait until those morons start literally dumping everything they have into bitcoin.

I was chatting with a successful businessman a couple of days ago about this. He works with local angel investors, and his group probably wields a significant portion of the wealth in Western Canada. This guy had no idea what Ethereum even was and only knew about bitcoin, and heard of Doge in passing. Older gentleman with a crap ton of money to swing and didn't know anything about any of this. Guys like him are all over the place. There is an insane amount of money NOT in the crypto space.
 
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AceVentures

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Lol, I think that you are underestimating the power of dumb money. If you remember back in 2017, people were literally getting second mortgages on their homes to buy bitcoin and bragging about it on twitter. It was all over the place. Think dude who dumps his life savings into something after it has gone parabolic and done a 3x in 3 days is going to stay in it? Nope, first sign of red and he sells at a massive loss and then cries about how much of a scam this is.

Google search interest for bitcoin and anything crypto related is at something like 30% today compared to what it was like at the last peak in 2017/18. Dumb money is not even close to there yet. Look what some reddit idiots did to Gamestop, just wait until those morons start literally dumping everything they have into bitcoin.

I was chatting with a successful businessman a couple of days ago about this. He works with local angel investors, and his group probably wields a significant portion of the wealth in Western Canada. This guy had no idea what Ethereum even was and only knew about bitcoin, and heard of Doge in passing. Older gentleman with a crap ton of money to swing and didn't know anything about any of this. Guys like him are all over the place. There is an insane amount of money NOT in the crypto space.

When the mechanics under the hood are abstracted into a BUY NOW button that links your bank to a DeFi lending protocol for 20% fixed APY they will come.

They don't need to know how or why ETH works. They just need a smart contract that secures their funds and guarantees them a yield better than traditional finance.
 

AceVentures

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Then he/she has fundamentally misunderstood what the whole point was
This
Older gentleman with a crap ton of money to swing and didn't know anything about any of this. Guys like him are all over the place. There is an insane amount of money NOT in the crypto space.
I agree, the thing is that it's harder to see them when you are into crypto than when you are not. BTC is 10+ and yet, it's only the beginning.
Get this everyone.

I used to hold $300 of dogecoin but traded it for bitcoin.

If I didn't do that, lol, it would be worth $70,000 at today's price.

Never underestimating a good meme again.
You can write this in the "dumbest financial decision" thread: GOLD! - What Are the Dumbest Financial Decisions You Have Ever Made?

Why did you buy doge at first?
 

Matt Sun

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Get this everyone.

I used to hold $300 of dogecoin but traded it for bitcoin.

If I didn't do that, lol, it would be worth $70,000 at today's price.

Never underestimating a good meme again.

You mind sharing your memecoin strategy ? Buy and sell in a month ? hold longer ? And how much did you risk ? Man we need a real economy, not crypto meme millionaires... but i'd rather be rich than right.
 

AceVentures

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Feel like you sort of understand ETH 2.0, PoW vs PoS, rollups, sharding, but it still doesn't all come together in a fluid way?

Check out this easy to follow substack post visualizing these elements in a very simple and elegant manner.

It will greatly improve your understanding and appreciation for Ethereum.

Below: some intuitive cartoons from the article as incentive to study further.

1618930494635.png
1618930405022.png
1618930414269.png
1618930422837.png
 
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Timmy C

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You mind sharing your memecoin strategy ? Buy and sell in a month ? hold longer ? And how much did you risk ? Man we need a real economy, not crypto meme millionaires... but i'd rather be rich than right.
I honestly had no idea what I was doing then.

I have no insight to share.
 

Matt Sun

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I honestly had no idea what I was doing then.

I have no insight to share.
Oh i was talking about your shiba buy. A friend of mine talked to me about ir just joking. It has gone up 100% since he mentioned it lol
Ps I do think this tech (Btc, Eth and Iota) will change life on this planet, maybe even for centuries to come.
 

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#1. Monero (XMR) is THE privacy coin. This one will inevitably moonrocket. It will take a very long time, though. I'm willing to bet it'll surpass Bitcoin around year 2040, but a lot can happen before that.

#2. Oxen is an interesting Monero fork, but it's unlikely to see widespread adoption, so I'm on the fence.

#3. Ethereum has already received pretty wide adoption, but it has some drawbacks. It's a decent short-term investment.
The very fact that you are willing to make definitive predictions into 2040 means you know nothing about forecasting.
 
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Timmy C

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You mind sharing your memecoin strategy ? Buy and sell in a month ? hold longer ? And how much did you risk ? Man we need a real economy, not crypto meme millionaires... but i'd rather be rich than right.
I said years ago and I didn't know what I was doin already.

You have your answer bro.
 

Fox

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The big sell offs on coinbase IPO...

EzL4IsbUUAoYIBt.jpeg
 
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Timmy C

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The big sell offs on coinbase IPO...

View attachment 37660
Yeh originally I thought it was dodgy.

Apparently as it's a direct listing they have to sell their shares or something.

Anyway, coinbase is going to zero anyway.

Coinbase has tons of BTC on their exchange.

What happens when people take their bitcoins off the exchange? They don't have a business anymore. Coinbase isn’t a leader in anything except onboarding fiat currency (primarily US dollars). With decentralized exchanges continuing to grow (Uniswap, Sushiswap etc.), there is no need to trust a centralized exchange to hold your money anymore. Over the long-term, there will be no need for central authorities to hold your crypto assets at all.
 
G

GuestUser4aMPs1

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@Fox since it's a direct listing, Coinbase won't issue new shares. Their current equity holders will have to sell their shares into the market, which is the only way this could happen. This podcast episode from Coindesk lays it out pretty well, starting @ 9:17
 

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