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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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GPM

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I'm a small fish, but until EIP1559 hits, the more transactions and the more fees being paid for ethereum the better off I'm doing.

That is some serious quarterly transaction volume increase.
 

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AceVentures

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I'm a small fish, but until EIP1559 hits, the more transactions and the more fees being paid for ethereum the better off I'm doing.

That is some serious quarterly transaction volume increase.

I just exported my ethscan. I spent ~$8000 in txs fees this past month alone. Will be fun to look back in 2025 and laugh at how much ETH I spent trying out the new tech.
 

Matt Sun

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Timmy C

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Regarding binance token shitcoin.

They are a successful EXCHANGE. A centralized one that will die eventually, and that rug pulls its customers.

If you think the future of finance will be built on a foreign company-controlled blockchain, then that's beyond rationality.

Any defi on Binance coin isn't defi at all.

Few.
 

Xeon

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Nice.
 

Frinys

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@Xeon, I don't know what happened. Previously, you asked great questions in this thread and received many excellent answers. You have been treated with respect, and people have tried to teach you how blockchain works.

Now, it seems the only thing left in your posts is bitterness. This bitterness won't do you any good, no matter if crypto goes up or down. Why waste time on this topic if it only makes you emotionally unwell?

Most of us here enjoy everything about crypto. We enjoy contributing to this thread because we get to share thoughts, teach and learn. It's a joyful experience.

If you don't find joy in discussing blockchain technology, why bother writing a post? You only end up wasting your time.

Your bitterness won't be fulfilled even if you are right and crypto goes to zero. Bitterness doesn't work that way. The bitterness will, however, make you feel miserable if cryptocurrencies become internationally adopted.
 

Timmy C

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@Xeon, I don't know what happened. Previously, you asked great questions in this thread and received many excellent answers. You have been treated with respect, and people have tried to teach you how blockchain works.

Now, it seems the only thing left in your posts is bitterness. This bitterness won't do you any good, no matter if crypto goes up or down. Why waste time on this topic if it only makes you emotionally unwell?

Most of us here enjoy everything about crypto. We enjoy contributing to this thread because we get to share thoughts, teach and learn. It's a joyful experience.

If you don't find joy in discussing blockchain technology, why bother writing a post? You only end up wasting your time.

Your bitterness won't be fulfilled even if you are right and crypto goes to zero. Bitterness doesn't work that way. The bitterness will, however, make you feel miserable if cryptocurrencies become internationally adopted.
He's the type of guy that will rub your face in it when it crashes, then while you accumulate and make more money he will come back in with bitterness again.
 

Frinys

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He's the type of guy that will rub your face in it when it crashes, then while you accumulate and make more money he will come back in with bitterness again.
I agree. I don't see why people would do that to themselves. But then again, we all gotta do something.
 

Frinys

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Security Inheriting Consensus Protocols​

One of the things I figured when I wrote my master's thesis (about blockchain technology) some years ago, is that it is impossible to secure all decentralized blockchains with Proof of Work or Proof of Stake.
  • Proof of Stake requires a significant market cap before the consensus mechanism provides security.
  • Proof of Work requires significant hash power before the consensus mechanism provides security.
This is feasible for the top cryptos, but it is impossible for lower-cap cryptocurrencies. The less used a blockchain is, the easier it is to attack. New blockchain solutions have a very hard time securing their blockchain, and 51% attacks are increasing both in frequency and strength.

There are two ways to solve this. Either by (1) creating the solution as smart contracts on top of an established cryptocurrency, like Ethereum. Or by (2) inheriting the security of an established cryptocurrency, like Bitcoin. Most people know about 1, but not about 2.

Inheriting the security of another blockchain as simple as sending transactions to the security providing blockchain (eg. Bitcoin) with metadata. By doing so, the security inheriting protocol (e.g Stacks) can prove that the transaction exists on the security providing (Bitcoin) blockchain.

It is a very clever approach. To do a 51% attack on a security inheriting blockchain, the attacker must also do a 51% attack on the security providing blockchain. And as we know, it's almost impossible to 51% attack Bitcoin.

Currently, there are only a few types of protocols that inherit Bitcoins security. Two of them are Stack's Proof of Transaction (PoX) and VeriBlock's Proof of Proof (PoP). I think both of these consensus protocols will be very successful in the future.
 

volodya

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I predict a never-ending loop of analysis paralysis
Yes, that’s the problem with posts like that. They lack any substance.
Any person who thinks that Bitcoin is “overvalued” must be selling and holding means it not. The reverse is true also.
 

AceVentures

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The thing that's outstanding about ETH and why most of these fast-chain L1s won't make it as designed is because ETH started with and built a massive network using PoW. It's still running on PoW. And it is consistently generating massive rewards for it's miners. It's the beauty of boostrapping security using PoW and merging into PoS that gives it real promise.

There is and will continue to be constant sellside pressure from miners to cover their increasing costs at decreasing block reward rates. That security is only there in so far as there is economic incentive to secure the network.

The Beacon Chain has about 4 million ETH staked right now and the network and has been running in parallel to ETH1 (PoW) since December 2020. Decentralized Finance today uses ETH, the native token of the system, as collateral for all kinds of financial products. When they merge the current execution layer with the staked Beacon Chain consensus layer, there could be massive network rewards for ETH staking. Some estimates of high double-digit rewards for staking ETH.

In PoS validators have economic incentive to hold and secure the network, gaining further ETH that compound their share of the economy. Beacon Chain consensus + EIP1559 basefee burn + ever-growing DeFi usage on ETH = Deflationary supply. People are calling this the Ultra Sound Money principle. Ultra Sound referring to rates of token burn with exponentiation network usage.

Once EIP1559 goes live and a base-fee burn mechanism is introduced to every transaction, ETH will experience a massive shift in supply rates. Similar to multiple Bitcoin halving cycles. That is scheduled for July. This encourages further holding since EIP1559 introduces a big change in supply.

What seems to be the driving factor right now, as I can read from market demands and capital inflow are DeFi products. Lending protocols are booming. All kinds of ways of locking ETH and taking out loans, some at 0% interest. These vaults are experiencing massive ETH lockups. How is this possible?

In my honest opinion, I would tell anybody that wants to bet on the future of france, to actually start using DeFi. You'll know it's all about ETH once you start using DeFi. You'll understand how it works, because you'll have loans and you'll be managing debt, and you can get insured and you can hedge via various indices, you can get dynamic ERC20 coins to abstract collateral into intelligent vaults that can manage risk and increase your margins to protect you from liquidation. There are new ways of playing with money coming out every day. And the serious liquidity pools are all secured on ETH. If you think it runs on something else you haven't been using this shit enough to make an intelligent bet.

Put this up on your fridge and take a good look next time your palms get sweaty reading FUD on Yahoo.

1619100182571.png
 

GPM

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Have you guys thought much about what is going to happen once EIP1559, and eventual PoS hits Eth? All those miners are going to be moving to something else. That is A LOT of computing power that will need to find somewhere else to point. So far it looks like a large portion of that will jump over to Raven.

Ethereum currently has 541 TH/s of total hashrate.
Raven is hovering around 11 TH/s, and this algorithm gives roughly half the hashes as Eth, so we can say it effectively has an equivalent of 22 TH/s when compared to Ethereum

If 50% of miners move from Ethereum to Raven, this could potentially be a 10-12x increase in computing power in the next few months. I wonder what that will do for them. Same goes for whoever wins this computing power.
 

volodya

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"Close to The Top" (at least for this bull market cycle)
Looking at Bitcoin prices today going further down from the top. Sure looks like you called it at a perfect moment! Hats off to you my friend! Well done.
And thanks for starting this thread.
 

Timmy C

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Ocean Man

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It annoys me to see people freaking out over ETH's and Bitcoins "dips". If you're in ETH or Bitcoin to become a millionaire in a month, then you've got the wrong idea..

Every hour there are posts that say "HODL", "Buy the dip!", and posts with six paragraphs talking about how it's just temporary down.
 

Timmy C

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It annoys me to see people freaking out over ETH's and Bitcoins "dips". If you're in ETH or Bitcoin to become a millionaire in a month, then you've got the wrong idea..

Every hour there are posts that say "HODL", "Buy the dip!", and posts with six paragraphs talking about how it's just temporary down.
The ONLY concern is if you.put in money you need for food.

few.

I'll keep adding to positions and chill.
 

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TinyTim

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It annoys me to see people freaking out over ETH's and Bitcoins "dips". If you're in ETH or Bitcoin to become a millionaire in a month, then you've got the wrong idea..

Every hour there are posts that say "HODL", "Buy the dip!", and posts with six paragraphs talking about how it's just temporary down.

Let's be honest, most of the retail investors in the crypto space are straight gambling. As such, they are likely also highly exposed (or overexposed) to the alts. Last night, BTC dipped about 5-7%, and then many alts plunged 40% in a few hours.

They were cocky, but now we have a dip, the doubts will start to form. "Have I bought the top?" "Will my memecoin now drop 99%?"
 

AceVentures

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Let's be honest, most of the retail investors in the crypto space are straight gambling. As such, they are likely also highly exposed (or overexposed) to the alts. Last night, BTC dipped about 5-7%, and then many alts plunged 40% in a few hours.

They were cocky, but now we have a dip, the doubts will start to form. "Have I bought the top?" "Will my memecoin now drop 99%?"

Yep, you nailed it!

"Can you sell crypto on robinhood?"

I imagine some poor lad scrambing around to sell his DOGE before his fiancee finds out how much he lost playing with lottery tokens.

1619184555277.png
1619184565131.png
 

Timmy C

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Why are you guys annoyed? I’m finally happy! I like buying on the dips. Let it be, you need human emotions to drive market cycles to be able to take advantage of them.
The only people that are annoyed are broke gamblers.

I'll eat ramen noodles to hold it out if I must


I'd rather sleep on the street than sell.
I know what I hold.
 

PeterBoss

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Yep, you nailed it!

"Can you sell crypto on robinhood?"

I imagine some poor lad scrambing around to sell his DOGE before his fiancee finds out how much he lost playing with lottery tokens.

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View attachment 37703
It's fair to say that the whole ecosystem lacks maturity. Even if you don't believe in any of this stuff, it seems like the 'smort' (not a typo, just stating... who knows what smart is) would be to have long exposure to ETH and instead of just HODL, hedge short with shitty alt coins.

Granted, it's specially difficult to be short, as a lot of these platforms don't even allow you to borrow or be short, but anyway... just sharing a passing thought. It would also be tricky to calculate the hedge I guess, but arguably could be done factoring in the delta of volatilities between coins.

Not that it's needed, but everything I say it's just for the sake of theoretical discussion and by no means should ANYONE take this as advice. I just like theoretical discussions and finance in general.
 

Timmy C

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For those worried about an end to the bull market already, I say, VERY MUCH doubt that.

This bull market has been coming in hot. I've yet to see anything close to resembling the type of high top you expect before a crash.

If you're worried about a major top, then you're probably just in too deep or you had expectations that you could just invest and make millions without ever being tested.

Focus on the big picture, reign in expectations.
 

GPM

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There is almost no interest in Crypto this round compared to 2018 from what I can se so far. I think we still have a way to go.

This is going to see-saw for a while I figure. There is the odd mention of this from regular folk, but nothing at all like what I saw in 2018.

I have been trying to get some friends to buy for like a year and they STILL won't even bother to pull up a chart and see what is happening. I figure when we are closer to the top they will be the one telling me about it and how I should buy.
 

Frinys

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It's fair to say that the whole ecosystem lacks maturity. Even if you don't believe in any of this stuff, it seems like the 'smort' (not a typo, just stating... who knows what smart is) would be to have long exposure to ETH and instead of just HODL, hedge short with shitty alt coins.

Granted, it's specially difficult to be short, as a lot of these platforms don't even allow you to borrow or be short, but anyway... just sharing a passing thought. It would also be tricky to calculate the hedge I guess, but arguably could be done factoring in the delta of volatilities between coins.

Not that it's needed, but everything I say it's just for the sake of theoretical discussion and by no means should ANYONE take this as advice. I just like theoretical discussions and finance in general.
I have shorted a few coins (with a very small percentage of my portfolio) on Binance. I think it is much easier to spot an overhyped coin than to predict a pump.

The problem however, is that it's very hard to predict when a pump is over. There are simply too many investing with their heart and not their brain. A coin can do a x2 in a week, and then do another x4 after a you have placed a short position.

There are ways to mitigate this risk, but I don't this it's worth the hassle compared to just holding.
 

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