Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[Ivan sntr]

"I'm a late-adopter and my late-adoption is a sign that we're at a bubble level. But then part of me understands the difference in this than say, an overinflated stock or a house. So here I sit smack dab in the middle, open to any outcome -- crash down or explosion up."

Could def go both ways. The reason why im so confident in bitcoin is: the community!
They stand behind the idea...mainstream media, goverments etc disinform and warn people about bitcoin for so many years now and its still here... now after like 10years it gets attention it probably deserves



so i like the one part in your book where you are saying something like if you are in your 30s and have close to zero net worth stop what you are doing, because its not working..

When i look at our economy I see the same problem.. Look at the debt we have, the debt is bigger than the total money supply, its just not working

If we have a look at our economy: its only based on debt! (photo attached)
There is gonna be a big bang in the near future and its not gonna hit greece next time! And than i dont wanna have too much money in any of the banks!, wanna see how much money your dollar/euro is worth than...

My grandgrandma had money in the bank to buy a house, exonomy collapsed, after that collapse with the same money she could have only buy a cow than, just as a reminder, it would not be the first time that a fiat currency loses all his value overnight


Governments paying for banks for bailout... it is unavoidable that it is gonna happen again! Its just a fact!
dont know when but i believe to know where people are gonna put there money and that are not gonna be the banks!

You can quote me on this estimation in 2020 again, but if the bitcoin Bubble is not bursting in the next 2years, and im not talking about a 3k pullback after it just gained 5k, i believe in 100k+ by 2020, with the next btc/block halving...
Momentum+adoption+Increased demand+less supply with halving+ low transactionfees and almost instant payments with implementation of the lightning network


Time will tell

 

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[Yoda]

Big crash happening.

 

[DVU]

Yup, correction happening

 

[jsk29]

Big crash happening.

I wonder if an overload of panic sell orders caused Coinbase to go down or vice versa?

Also curious to see if what happens as the traders/holders in Asia get up - it's ~5am there right now.

 

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[mThree2K]

Big crash happening.

Anyone knows why?

Enviado desde mi Mi Note 2 mediante Tapatalk

 

[c4n]

The real question is: is it over or just beginning/half-way through? Thoughts?

 

[mThree2K]

The real question is: is it over or just beginning/half-way through? Thoughts?

Don't know, the thing is BTC corrections are a lot more violent than usual stock corrections.

So if this doesn't stop soon the next few days will be bloody.

This is a great opportunity to get in. Let's see what the asians are going to do once the sessions open over there.

Enviado desde mi Mi Note 2 mediante Tapatalk

 

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[MJ DeMarco]

Well the disruption in services is concerning. GDAX / CoinBase has been screwy all day.

 

[c4n]

Yep, same with BitStamp.

 

[Ivan sntr]

If someone expects it to just go up all the time dont invest in bitcoin..
You are the once that panic and are likely to cause crashs...
Thats what your "crash" looks like atm, zoom out

 

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[Ivan sntr]

Well the disruption in services is concerning. GDAX / CoinBase has been screwy all day.

Use bittrex and get a ledger nano s and you will be fine

 

[Kingmaker]

GDAX is shitting the bed today, can't deposit funds from USD wallet to ETH at all. Missing out on this dip.
It's also been holding a small test bank account order since 11/21 as 'pending'. No response from support either, obviously.

Edit: also found "international" fees of 3% on every transaction because apparently Coinbase processes their transactions through Cheapside, England. They don't make that known at all when you purchase, seems scummy.

 

[DVU]

Big crash happening.

Just to clarify. It is NOT a crash. BTC has had a hell of a bull run. This had to happen.

 

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[ALC]

I do think that it's not a crash, some will sell because they're afraid, but some will see the opportunity to buy lower with that low momentum and then with the mass effect it will grow again.

 

[Interesting Life]

Isn't that the ultimate goal of every cryptocurrency? Mainstream adaption. The more pople use it, the bigger the value...

Yes. There's a difference though between adoption as a currency and investment speculation. I'm talking about it as investment speculation.

I have noticed though more vendors saying they accept Bitcoin which goes along with your point.

 

[Vigilante]

Well the disruption in services is concerning. GDAX / CoinBase has been screwy all day.

I picked an excellent day to send a wire transfer

 

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[James Fake]

Err.... what a day. I was completely right about Bitcoin shooting to $11.3k overnight, but being completely caught blind-sided by the massive drop (I knew it was coming, just thought Bitcoin would settle & consolidate above $11k after upcoming fork & CME before it broke downwards by much).

With that said; I took some good profits on shorts earlier that day but am also "locked" meaning funds just for day trading are tied until Bitcoin gets back (Only time you lose is if you sell).

Saying all that; many great lessons learned & only makes me a stronger trader. Thankfully, my only cost for these priceless lessons is having to wait until Bitcoin gets back (a week at most I think.. hopefully by tomorrow if Asia is smart to take advantage of blood).

1. I severely under-estimated shaky hands, but clear as day now as so many new investors came on board. (its every new investors first reaction: panic sell lol)
2. Giving RSI signals (me & @TKDTyler discussed this hours before ironically) less credit than they deserve
3. Going full manual without stop loss orders to save my a$$ in crashes like this was a bad idea. Being greedy was the driving factor. I thought I could manually time the market as it played around before breaking $11k, fell asleep, got caught lol. I, at the very least, should have put my money where my mouth was in my predictions and put a sell limit up around $11.2k
4. Being in a telegram chat that's 75% new investors is perfect place to get a gauge on how solid the price support lines are (aka how many shaky hands were coming in affecting the price run up)

A few other things... Anyways; great times!

 

[James Fake]

I picked an excellent day to send a wire transfer

Lol.. a small chance it will come back. My last attempt last week at wiring money via deposit into Coinbase was sent back to me since they had technical issues.

 

[MrYoshi]

Yeah, I've decided to not even buy into Bitcoin until it gets back down to 7k. I've essentially spent my entire week looking into videos and it seems like many of the more popular youtube guys don't even trade. Many of them just find awesome coins to invest in for the long term and trade or buy when dips come up.

 

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[James Fake]

Yeah, I've decided to not even buy into Bitcoin until it gets back down to 7k. I've essentially spent my entire week looking into videos and it seems like many of the more popular youtube guys don't even trade. Many of them just find awesome coins to invest in for the long term and trade or buy when dips come up.

Not sure on the $7k ever being seen again, but a triple-YES to buying in good coins & holding for a very long time. Much easier said than done once you're invested in.. I advise people NOT to day/weekly-trade like I do. In the long run; Holders make much more money than traders.

 

[MrYoshi]

Not sure on the $7k ever being seen again, but a triple-YES to buying in good coins & holding for a very long time. Much easier said than done once you're invested in.. I advise people NOT to day/weekly-trade like I do. In the long run; Holders make much more money than traders.

Yeah, it's at 10k so that definitely seems to be the case. I might put in 1k for the long haul and never touch it. DataDash thinks it's going to go way down, but he's admitted that Bitcoin is too volatile. I will say that it's unbelievable what some of these guys have done in only 1 year. Some of them started last December and are talking about getting close to getting their first million. I think it would be insanely fun to jump into trading full time, but right now I'm not positioned well enough to do so. I'll continue to learn more and if I see an opportunity I could go full time.

 

[James Fake]

hopefully by tomorrow if Asia is smart to take advantage of blood

Guess who's free mutha suckas!!... back to trading. Moved into 117LTC @$90.98, sell limit at $99.89. Predicting LTC & ETH to be lagging like they did yesterday as everybody stops, stares, and gives Bitcoin all the attention.. then pump comes, I'm out.

EDIT: Putting in my reasons for LTC jumping.

1) It follows BTC right now, BTC up, LTC up. But since LTC is lagging behind; it's price is much better for bigger profit returns than if BTC goes up proportionally. Then like yesterday, at some point LTC (and ETH) catch up in a hurry..

2) Nice coiling consolidation happening.. with BTC on the trend up, almost certain it breaks upwards out of it.

3) Comparably, volume is low in this coiling consolidation which indicates when money does flow in; it will make whatever break fairly nice in size.

 

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[loop101]

Doesn't betting on Bitcoins going up in value violate the commandment of Control?

 

[mike24601]

Quite an interesting day in crypto land. I followed the charts last night as BTC/LTC ran over $10,000/$100 respectively but figured this would happen. I also followed live as the correction occurred today and things seem to have rebounded ok. Needed to fill some gaps left behind in the 79-90 range and consolidate for a future run. New price target is $115-120 LTC by end of the year. I think now both coins have good support to firmly enter their new price ranges and stay there. There WILL be corrections to come but at much higher altitudes. @MrYoshi I have to agree with @JamesFend. Don't think we will see $7k again in Bitcoin...unless it was crashing through the floor.

On Coinbase/GDAX, today was an important stress test and both exchanges failed. Coinbase is adding 100,000 new accounts per day to complicate the issue. For traders it was a huge annoyance because many missed out on buying the huge dip, and for shaky hands it might have been a blessing because panicked sellers couldn't get out. Now that prices have rebounded they are probably breathing relief. Not a good thing in general but I am confident Coinbase will make good use of their high trading fees to upgrade the system now. *wink wink*

 

[mike24601]

Doesn't betting on Bitcoins going up in value violate the commandment of Control?

Yes it does. It's definitely not Fastlane and one shouldn't invest anything they wouldn't mind losing tomorrow. But it's also pretty interesting from a money making standpoint. A few of the people on this thread are already Fastlaners (I am NOT) so their reasons for investing are probably different.

 

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[mike24601]

One thing I've been putting a lot of thought into is what will happen when the stock market bull run comes to an end? Goldman and the ilk have been raising red flags lately as they see more and more of their clients transition from passive investing strategies to aloof, active interest in their portfolios. People are getting a bit nervous even though consumer confidence is super high, home buying through the roof, and cheap money still flowing out of lending institutions. We're more or less overdue for a correction and bear market phase and thus I am keeping all money not in crypto in cash.

The problem I see is that if we enter a downturn and people have less free cash to throw around, will we see a major pullback in the crypto market as well? Sure, the whole idea behind crypto is that it's not supposed to have these problems in the future, but right now the market is fueled by whatever discretionary income these new and shaky investors can spare. Food for thought as we approach 2018.

 

[James Fake]

Yes it does. It's definitely not Fastlane and one shouldn't invest anything they wouldn't mind losing tomorrow. But it's also pretty interesting from a money making standpoint. A few of the people on this thread are already Fastlaners (I am NOT) so their reasons for investing are probably different.

Nailed it right on the head. @loop101 - as this thread gets longer; the purpose of the thread can get lost. Trading crypto is most definitely NOT Fastlane and by no means was it meant to be suggested as a possible Fastlane vehicle. It's more a thread for other investors to share our journey.. like a hobby on the side, it's fun, it's exciting to think about & discuss, it gives us a mental break & stimulation from main work, and it makes money. But by all means... Build a real business first & foremost!

Now, the industry itself could be your niche in where you build your Fastlane business. It's fairly technical at the moment so like AI, VR, and other things; the barrier to entry to create a coin, exchange, dapp (ethereum app), etc. is quite high.

Me, personally, I am creating something crypto related as I find time from my main app businesses. Hence why I'm a bit deeper getting to know the nooks & crannies as a consumer/investor. When done; I don't plan on sharing or promoting it here on the forum as I thoroughly enjoy crypto discussions as a hobbyist from a nothing-to-benefit standpoint.

 

[Kingmaker]

Interesting tidbit: Coinbase on ios is currently #9 "most downloaded" apps,
and this:

"Blockchain" is the wallet/exchange sitting at #2 search results if you search for 'bitcoin' on ios.

Thoughts? Are all the new people propping up the price and it's gonna crash when they get try to get out, or this is just the beginning of the herd rush?

 

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[farmer79]

So I thought I'd put my trading hat on and make a few comments. I didn't mean to come in and say Bitcoin is going to 0 because it is a bubble. Also my sense from reading this thread is it younger guys who may be trading seriously for the first time in their lives. I am a bit of a grizzled vet and maybe too old and set in my ways to have embraced this technology anyways. However I was a full time self financed stock and commodity trader for nearly 12 years and for approx 5 years made a living doing it. Not a great living, probably not enough for a wife and kids,but still actually paid the bills. I don't say that to brag I was no George Soros but trust me it is harder than you think. I don't think there are too many trading experiences that I have not experienced. Everything from drug like highs to actually needing to lunge at the garbage so I could throw up. (Lock limit move in live hogs don't ask anymore please)

Full disclaimer I truly believe Bitcoin is going to 0 someday, and if not I believe the advantages, especially in US will be legislated away eventually. But good trading is good trading.

A few points to BitCoin traders,
1. You have caught a 1-3 market of a lifetime. ENJOY IT!! If you are new to trading you have no idea how rare this is. Savor it. Trading is usually extremely hard, low margin, thankless etc, The last market like this was probably Internet bubble 1999-2000. Be addicted to it! Eat, sleep, breathe Bitcoin. Know everything. Sleep with your phone so you can check prices at night. I am not joking I am really not. In the fall of 2008 I made a small fortune (to me anyways) when markets were collapsing, my regret is I didn't enjoy it more. It was my high water mark as a trader and I didn't enjoy it like I should have.

2. Why is it important to savor it? Because it will not last, simple as that. I don't mean it will go to 0. I mean volatility will dry up. Although I here a lot that it "is totally new", or "nothing like it in history.". It is still a tradable instrument, and one that appears free of manipulation. So it will trade like every other instrument. Which means eventually the market will figure out how to price it and the volatility will disappear and it will move into a range. At this point the wild trading swings and just being able to hold for new highs will be gone.

3. If you are absolutely confident in your beliefs and analysis push the envelope and your risk factor. Although I suspect it is very late to suggest this. The point is when markets like this come along they can be life changing, don't miss that. This is my biggest regret in 2008 when markets were starting to collapse. I had quite literally a perfect read on the markets, I understood what was happening and I had strategies that worked perfect in that environment. Without a word of lie I could have made 7 figures in 90 days. But I made less than a tenth of that because I was afraid to push the envelope. Thinking I should still be trading cautiously. What I missed in 2008 wasn't market analysis, it was how special 2008 was. Same thing with internet bubble.

4. Remember the true measure of a successful trader is not %return, not what one year of your income tax return says, not how many great calls you make, not how high your account equity got, the true measure of a trader is, "how much money did you take out of the market?" I can't stress that enough. By out I mean out of your trading account into a bank account where you can buy stuff with it. I don't mean you need to spend it, but it needs to be removed from trading account. Pay living expenses, buy a car, or just save it. But actually remove it from harms way in your trading account.

5. Building on point 4. DO NOT SPEND UNREALIZED GAINS EVER! Especially for taxes. And they are due on Dec 31st not April 15th. Sorry for the caps but it is that important. You have no idea how many traders got badly burned during internet bubble when they had a huge tax bill in 1999 and all the money was gone by March 2000 but they hadn't paid taxes yet. And unrealized includes trades closed but money still in trading account. I dont mean to pick on James as his contributions here are epic and more importantly he has been gifted an INSIDERS subscription which is the highest fast lane honour of all. Also I don't like giving unsolicited advice especially to people I don't know. He may have more trading experience than me in which case I look silly. So I mean it as a painful lesson I learned trading junior exploration stocks in 2005-2006. James made the comment that he went out with family for fresh expensive crab with a tiny portion of trading profits a day ago. You should absolutely do things like this, you need to celebrate successes. It is important and fun. But make sure you actually take the money out, even only a few hundred dollars. Make this a rule you never break. Trust me not only will you enjoy it more but if you do get caught in downdraft it won't hurt nearly as much. Especially as gains get bigger. Next thing you know you'll pick up 10-15K on a Friday trading and decide to fly to SanDiego for a football game, however you'll think"I'll take money out next month or once account is over 250k etc." You get hit with a downdraft and suddenly you have the bill for a trip that may represent regret rather than celebration. Everyone says how easy to convert or send Bitcoin is. If you are going to spend gains take them out of account and really enjoy.

6. The Bad will happen. I know it feels like Bitcoin is revolutionary. It feels like there had never been anything that even compares to it, so old rules, especially valuation rules don't apply. There may be a kernel of truth to this in the early days when it is taking off to the moon. But ultimately it is currency, a freely traded currency without central bank influence obviously, but still a currency. Its value will eventually be set solely by that metric. Because it is a unique product and because it being used primarily as a tool to speculate in it is easy to forget that. We could soar to 12,500 tomorrow on George Soros saying Bitcoin is the future. Remember how internet analysts could move stocks back in 1999-2000? But eventually it is going to move on its utility as a currency.

7. Markets at all time highs trade differently. They are special. They can run up much farther than you think. Up until the drop today yesterday there was not a single person who was down money from any purchase point. This gives unbelievable rocket fuel because all the "sell when I get back to even people" simply do not exist. Once we retrace more for a significant period of time rather than price a market accumulates a lot of these. And this make new highs much tougher.

8. If things work perfectly there is still much that can go wrong. As I have thought about Bitcoin the last few days I thought maybe a good best case comparison is Amazon. The internet was completely disruptive technology. I don't think even the most bullish Bitcoin person could think Bitcoin is more revolutionary and transformative than the internet. We'll call Amazon the cream of the original internet crop. It has risen from virtually nothing to nearly 1200 USD per share. However between March of 2000 and Oct 2001, Amazon dropped from over $75 to 5.5. It lost over 90% of it's value. And it was the perfect internet company. If you don't like stock comparisons go to currencies. Although not as dire as stocks 30-50 percent moves are certainly possible. So build that into your risk profile. A 50-90% move is not only possible it is probable. And it doesn't mean anything is wrong or bad, it is just moving like every other tradable instrument in the universe.

I wish all of you really good trading . If it is just the first of a huge leg up to 25000, I really do hope you all catch it. If your understanding of this unfamiliar technology allows you to understand an intrinsic value of 100,000 I really hope you have the fortitude and patience to ride it out. But please take some money all the way out along the way.

 

[James Fake]

@farmer79 - I read up until #3 before I had to write this thank you before reading further..

What you wrote was Gold and from a perspective I've never heard from before.. I can understand in entirely why your views are on Bitcoin as they are, as they should be.

I also think you are in a rare position of knowledge & experience that the crypto-trading-world needs right now... Have you thought about consulting or coaching? You don't even have to actually touch Bitcoin & people will pay to listen to you.. Here's why:

1. You pretty much traded in a very, very identical environment as crypto today.
2. Not only that, but you traded during all stages of it: the beginning, the fast middle, and the end.
3. You can write well with very vivid, distinct memory recollection.
4. Your advice of taking profits out & actually spending it and enjoying the ride isn't given out by your typical Joe trader (stuff like this is usually only given from an extremely wise ex-trader). This is below the surface, second-level deep wisdom here.. and I bet you are full of them!!

p.s. - I am fairly new to trading so your trading skill whales mine. I am not an expert at charts and patterns or signals. I am not an expert in crypto trading either lol; I just like to bring people together to share the journey & opinions. I definitely lose. I usually win more. (but I guess who wouldn't in a market like this). The one thing I will say I am good at is mass human psychology.. Being on the upper end of empathetic - I can place myself entirely in one's shoes & feel the feelings, fears, wants, needs, the why's, the deep stuff, etc. Couple this with decent chart signal knowledge + the things I learned (specific to crypto) while losing badly as I first started out.