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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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Bekit

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I hope and want crypto to crash for good with no point of return, so that we won't be in a world where crypto (bitcoin especially) replaces fiat and becomes the de-facto currency of all transactions.

It's scary when you think of this scenario whereby a customer pays you 0.0002 bitcoin for a product purchased via your ecommerce store, and that 0.0002 is say, for e.g, worth $45 at that time of purchase. Then next week, bitcoin suddenly dips 25%, and you're f*cked. You've made a loss. And then you've no choice but to keep hodling the bitcoin you've and wait till the right time to sell it to make a profit. f*ck. That then becomes a full-time investment job on top of the ecom store. How shitty is that. And I can't imagine trying to convert between crypto to fiat exchange rate in each calculation, and it would be messy in the accounting books as well. f*ck! Can you imagine doing corporate accounts with crypto instead of fiat?

Hope this nightmare never materializes. May bitcoin and crypto all go the hell!!!
The thing is, if we get to the point where crypto replaces fiat, it will no longer be the speculative roller-coaster ride that it is today. If crypto replaces fiat, that means that it will have reached the point of mass adoption. That means that there will no longer be huge gains left to be made. Sudden dips 25% will be a thing of the past. The fluctuations that do exist will be similar to the small fluctuations that we see today between currencies. To take one example, the exchange rate between USD and EUR changes constantly. But that doesn't make a noticeable blip in most people's finances. The exchange rate matters to people engaged heavily in international commerce. That's about it.

If we get to the point where crypto replaces fiat, nobody is going to be stressing over whether their 0.0002 BTC is still worth $45. All that they will care about is that their account went up by 0.0002 BTC. The exchange rate to USD will be meaningless, because USD will be irrelevant.
 

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Xeon

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The thing is, if we get to the point where crypto replaces fiat, it will no longer be the speculative roller-coaster ride that it is today. If crypto replaces fiat, that means that it will have reached the point of mass adoption. That means that there will no longer be huge gains left to be made. Sudden dips 25% will be a thing of the past. The fluctuations that do exist will be similar to the small fluctuations that we see today between currencies. To take one example, the exchange rate between USD and EUR changes constantly. But that doesn't make a noticeable blip in most people's finances. The exchange rate matters to people engaged heavily in international commerce. That's about it.

If we get to the point where crypto replaces fiat, nobody is going to be stressing over whether their 0.0002 BTC is still worth $45. All that they will care about is that their account went up by 0.0002 BTC. The exchange rate to USD will be meaningless, because USD will be irrelevant.

I hope so! The world is in a mania phase over bitcoin now, and these recent news of banks buying bitcoin and payment services accepting bitcoin is unsettling. I sure hope they're not crazy enough to make irrational decisions in making plans right now to replace fiat otherwise we're going to be in a world of pain.
 

Xeon

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Where have you been for the last 13 months?

No matter what happens, we are in for a world of pain.

buckle up

The pain from Covid19 is nothing from the chaos that crypto will bring the world, I'm afraid.
 

Frinys

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The pain from Covid19 is nothing from the chaos that crypto will bring the world, I'm afraid.
This post got a little longer than it was supposed to. I hope that I can help explain why such crypto chaos will never happen so that you don't have to fear that it will. :)

I don't think the crypto chaos you are talking about will happen. Remember, everything currency fluctuates. But price fluctuations diminish when usage increases.

The reason why Bitcoin and other crypto prices fluctuates so much is because no one really know how much one Bitcoin is worth. Is one bitcoin worth an apple? A 2000 square feet house? A barrel of oil? A rocket ship? Nothing? We don't know yet.

This will change when adoption occurs:
If person A sells houses for one bitcoin each, then 1 BTC is worth 1 House.
Then person B joins, which sell apples for 1 BTC each, 1 BTC is worth 1 Apple or 1 House.

In this example, what is the worth of bitcoin? Somewhere between 1 Apple and 1 House, but it is unclear exactly how much. But when more en more people start trading goods and assets with bitcoin, the market will correct itself toward Bitcoin's true value. Fluctuations will diminish to a point where it fluctuates just as little as any fiat currency.

The picture below is the US Dollar Index for the last 40 years. As seen, even the USD fluctuates. But no one notices those fluctuations in their daily lives, because all goods and assets in America are listed in USD.
Screenshot 2021-03-02 at 09.24.58.png
The same effect will happen for crypto, when or if adoption happens. No one will notice the fluctuations anymore. But adoption comes with some side effects.

Side effects include:
- No need for a middle man (bank, trusted party)
- Easy and quick transfer between border
- Programmable money
- A global currency not bound to any borders
- New, unknown use cases

Adoption will not happen overnight, and at some point, people just use crypto, without thinking about fluctuations. And when it happens, we will have a new, much better monetary system compared to today's fiat.
 

MitchC

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Here’s a good thread for the clown who’s worried about bitcoin getting mass adoption and still fluctuating wildly at the same time??

 

Timmy C

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Here’s a good thread for the clown who’s worried about bitcoin getting mass adoption and still fluctuating wildly at the same time??

You would have to be on crack to be selling your bitcoin.

Obviously doesn't apply to all situations.

Number go up technology vs number go down technology.
 

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The pain from Covid19 is nothing from the chaos that crypto will bring the world, I'm afraid.
Maybe, but even if crypto didn’t exist it would be just as painful, with no solution but to continue trusting our irresponsible governments.

play out the situation in your head without crypto... it’s just as bad or worse
 

Xeon

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This post got a little longer than it was supposed to. I hope that I can help explain why such crypto chaos will never happen so that you don't have to fear that it will. :)

I don't think the crypto chaos you are talking about will happen. Remember, everything currency fluctuates. But price fluctuations diminish when usage increases.

The reason why Bitcoin and other crypto prices fluctuates so much is because no one really know how much one Bitcoin is worth. Is one bitcoin worth an apple? A 2000 square feet house? A barrel of oil? A rocket ship? Nothing? We don't know yet.

This will change when adoption occurs:
If person A sells houses for one bitcoin each, then 1 BTC is worth 1 House.
Then person B joins, which sell apples for 1 BTC each, 1 BTC is worth 1 Apple or 1 House.

In this example, what is the worth of bitcoin? Somewhere between 1 Apple and 1 House, but it is unclear exactly how much. But when more en more people start trading goods and assets with bitcoin, the market will correct itself toward Bitcoin's true value. Fluctuations will diminish to a point where it fluctuates just as little as any fiat currency.

The picture below is the US Dollar Index for the last 40 years. As seen, even the USD fluctuates. But no one notices those fluctuations in their daily lives, because all goods and assets in America are listed in USD.
View attachment 37004
The same effect will happen for crypto, when or if adoption happens. No one will notice the fluctuations anymore. But adoption comes with some side effects.

Side effects include:
- No need for a middle man (bank, trusted party)
- Easy and quick transfer between border
- Programmable money
- A global currency not bound to any borders
- New, unknown use cases

Adoption will not happen overnight, and at some point, people just use crypto, without thinking about fluctuations. And when it happens, we will have a new, much better monetary system compared to today's fiat.


Thanks for the wonderful explanation. What about the fact that crypto isn't backed by the state/government/military like how fiat is? The lack of that gives the common man no assurance. The idea of money being stored in some "blockchain" thing and it's all digital, is unnerving.

Also, it's said that there'll only ever be 21 million bitcoins. Because the supply is so small and finite, at some point it'll be insufficient (even if 1 BTC is $0.0001 USD). Not sure what's gonna happen if that's the case. Physical military wars? LOL

I hope eventually governments will come up with their own stablecoins, regulated by the government.
Will feel more assured that way. The whole crypto feels like some wild wild west chaotic world right now....
 

Xeon

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Here’s a good thread for the clown who’s worried about bitcoin getting mass adoption and still fluctuating wildly at the same time??


Clown? LOL these are questions the common everyday man/woman will have about crypto. Not everyone is a reddit geek or savvy crypto investor/blockchain programmer.
 

Matt Sun

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Clown? LOL these are questions the common everyday man/woman will have about crypto. Not everyone is a reddit geek or savvy crypto investor/blockchain programmer.
The people of Venezuela are doing great with FIAT. You need just 1.000.000.000.000.000.000.000 bolivares now to buy 1 btc.
 

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Kak

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Clown? LOL these are questions the common everyday man/woman will have about crypto. Not everyone is a reddit geek or savvy crypto investor/blockchain programmer.
"Maybe the common man should stop being a retard and learn a thing or two about a thing or two and be less common. Bitcoin to $1B!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

LOL. In all honestly, I don't think THIS is IT, but I hope it is the start of something out of the grasps of government.

The whole decimal point thing becomes a nonissue with use. It is just like traveling and converting on a funky exchange rate. Basically, if you lived there, you would know.

Also, if it was THE currency, it would be no less stable than THE currency now, which is also based on nothing and actually eroded for political expedience. The widespread daily use is what stabilizes it.
 
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thechosen1

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It makes me think of how Social Media executives highly limit their kids use as they understand the danger.

This is something I think about a lot.

Also, let's say this happens and crypto is the new mainstream currency of the world and we get closer to the "dream" of a decentralized economy without government interference (I really don't see this happening since power always finds a way to maintain itself).

Who records the deeds to real property?
 

Kak

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Who records the deeds to real property?

This is my only problem with AnCap thinking. I absolutely love the theory and discussion of it. The practice, however, might be interesting.

On one hand there is only one property owner in the USA, the Government. It is theirs and you rent it from them.

The only reason the US government owns it instead of some other overlord is because they have the most guns and willingness to use them. All borders are drawn basically when the world is at a relative violence equilibrium. Borders exist because of guns. They didn’t file these borders with a higher authority. They just simply are.

The fact of the matter is this. We are most prosperous with the least amount of government and we are most oppressed with most amount of government. Measures should always be taken to limit government as much as possible. Now, eliminate government? I would argue it would be difficult and abstract, but we would have pockets of cooperating people either way.

If the land was TRULY yours, to the deepest definition of the word “yours,” it would be your country, and you would be the dictator of it. Sounds cool right? How many guns do you have? They and your willingness to use them are now the only thing drawing your border.

Obviously there are private sector solutions to this, like widespread treaties and alliances, but it is all general theory and never been tried. Read some Murray Rothbard, it is fascinating stuff.

Super small units of government are the most realistic. Little governments that actually represent the area and also have to compete with other nearby governments for the residency of the best and brightest. They have to run the place like a business, or go out of business.

Seasteading will be the first attempt at stateless society and it might be epic. Don’t like the rules, yacht your a$$ to a place with rules you like.

The bottom line, until we put the government in a place where what is in their best interest is ALSO in our best interest, we will experience some level of oppression. It is absolutely possible, but it is currently NOT how things work.
 
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thechosen1

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This is my only problem with AnCap thinking. I absolutely love the theory and discussion of it. The practice, however, might be interesting.

On one hand there is only one property owner in the USA, the Government. It is theirs and you rent it from them.

The only reason the US government owns it instead of some other overlord is because they have the most guns and willingness to use them. All borders are drawn basically when the world is at a relative violence equilibrium. Borders exist because of guns.

The fact of the matter is this. We are most prosperous with the least amount of government and we are most oppressed with most amount of government. Measures should always be taken to limit government as much as possible. Now, eliminate government? I would argue it would be difficult and abstract, but we would have pockets of cooperating people either way.

If the land was TRULY yours, to the deepest definition of the word “yours,” it would be your country, and you would be the dictator of it. Sounds cool right? How many guns do you have? They and your willingness to use them are now the only thing drawing your border.

Obviously there are private sector solutions to this, like widespread treaties and alliances, but it is all general theory and never been tried. Read some Murray Rothbard, it is fascinating stuff.

Super small units of government are the most realistic. Little governments that actually represent the area and also have to compete with other nearby governments for the residency of the best and brightest.

Seasteading will be the first attempt at stateless society and it might be epic. Don’t like the rules, yacht your a$$ to a place with rules you like.

Yup, this exactly! You need to have some kind of accountability otherwise your land is only yours insofar as you can defend it. And IDK, hiring bands of mercenaries just isn't my cup of tea.

However, this is a crypto opportunity, maybe, because you could (this has insane barriers to entry) create a cryptocurrency assigned to different units of real estate that's all open and transparent, sort of like the property appraiser's tax records.

Boom! No property tax, complete history and record of who owns the land

;)

But yeah until that takes off (Not holding my breath) we are going to need some kind of government to protect the property you own and paid for.
 

MitchC

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Clown? LOL these are questions the common everyday man/woman will have about crypto. Not everyone is a reddit geek or savvy crypto investor/blockchain programmer.

I can’t tell if you’re trolling and asking questions like a everyday man might or if you’re being serious.

the people of Venezuela figured Bitcoin and other solutions out pretty quickly when their currency went to shit.

@Kak is definitely right about government/central banks trying to maintain their power with guns so let’s see how this plays out.

What you are talking about with smaller societies reminds me of Gults gulch, Bitcoin could definitely be the currency of a place like that.
 

monfii

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This is my only problem with AnCap thinking. I absolutely love the theory and discussion of it. The practice, however, might be interesting.

On one hand there is only one property owner in the USA, the Government. It is theirs and you rent it from them.

The only reason the US government owns it instead of some other overlord is because they have the most guns and willingness to use them. All borders are drawn basically when the world is at a relative violence equilibrium. Borders exist because of guns. They didn’t file these borders with a higher authority. They just simply are.

The fact of the matter is this. We are most prosperous with the least amount of government and we are most oppressed with most amount of government. Measures should always be taken to limit government as much as possible. Now, eliminate government? I would argue it would be difficult and abstract, but we would have pockets of cooperating people either way.

If the land was TRULY yours, to the deepest definition of the word “yours,” it would be your country, and you would be the dictator of it. Sounds cool right? How many guns do you have? They and your willingness to use them are now the only thing drawing your border.

Obviously there are private sector solutions to this, like widespread treaties and alliances, but it is all general theory and never been tried. Read some Murray Rothbard, it is fascinating stuff.

Super small units of government are the most realistic. Little governments that actually represent the area and also have to compete with other nearby governments for the residency of the best and brightest. They have to run the place like a business, or go out of business.

Seasteading will be the first attempt at stateless society and it might be epic. Don’t like the rules, yacht your a$$ to a place with rules you like.

The bottom line, until we put the government in a place where what is in their best interest is ALSO in our best interest, we will experience some level of oppression. It is absolutely possible, but it is currently NOT how things work.


There is no justice, only power. - Gary Halbert
 

Frinys

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Thanks for the wonderful explanation.
You are welcome. It seems to me like you lack a very basic understanding of Bitcoin and blockchain technology. That's also why you get so many negative comments. I'd suggest you do some blockchain research to try to understand the fundamentals.

What about the fact that crypto isn't backed by the state/government/military like how fiat is? The lack of that gives the common man no assurance.
This is exactly the point of blockchain technology. Let's remove the trusted middle man. The USA has a relatively trusted government, but very many other countries do not.

The idea of money being stored in some "blockchain" thing and it's all digital, is unnerving.
It's only unnerving until you understand how it works. But that takes time. In short, blockchain makes digital data just as physical as an apple or gold nugget. It's the safest way to store digital information without relying on some middle man.

Also, it's said that there'll only ever be 21 million bitcoins. Because the supply is so small and finite, at some point it'll be insufficient (even if 1 BTC is $0.0001 USD). Not sure what's gonna happen if that's the case. Physical military wars? LOL
Let me tell you something crazy! Just like the USD has cents, BTC has Satoshis. You can buy 0.00000001 BTC if you want to, which equals one Satoshi. Most stuff actually is priced in satoshis, not Bitcoin.

I hope eventually governments will come up with their own stablecoins, regulated by the government.
Will feel more assured that way. The whole crypto feels like some wild wild west chaotic world right now....
The early internet was chaotic as well. So was the invention of electricity. So were the early railroads. Heard about the industrial revolution? It was chaotic.

At all times, innovation brings chaos at first. But that chaos is what blooms a new and better future.
 

Xeon

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You are welcome. It seems to me like you lack a very basic understanding of Bitcoin and blockchain technology. That's also why you get so many negative comments. I'd suggest you do some blockchain research to try to understand the fundamentals.


This is exactly the point of blockchain technology. Let's remove the trusted middle man. The USA has a relatively trusted government, but very many other countries do not.


It's only unnerving until you understand how it works. But that takes time. In short, blockchain makes digital data just as physical as an apple or gold nugget. It's the safest way to store digital information without relying on some middle man.


Let me tell you something crazy! Just like the USD has cents, BTC has Satoshis. You can buy 0.00000001 BTC if you want to, which equals one Satoshi. Most stuff actually is priced in satoshis, not Bitcoin.


The early internet was chaotic as well. So was the invention of electricity. So were the early railroads. Heard about the industrial revolution? It was chaotic.

At all times, innovation brings chaos at first. But that chaos is what blooms a new and better future.

What about the energy sustainability thing? In your opinion, do you feel this will eventually cause Bitcoin to collapse and end as a fad in history books? Stuff like these:




Will governments eventually say this is unsustainable and try to shut it down, causing crypto to crash and people to panic sell? E.g: imagine the amount of energy we need globally if the world adopts crpyto mainstream.
 

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What about the energy sustainability thing? In your opinion, do you feel this will eventually cause Bitcoin to collapse and end as a fad in history books? Stuff like these:




Will governments eventually say this is unsustainable and try to shut it down, causing crypto to crash and people to panic sell? E.g: imagine the amount of energy we need globally if the world adopts crpyto mainstream.

Why do you assume the energy output is a constant? Have you considered that this could actually be an incentive to develop new sustainable energy sources and enable them to scale and be more efficient and mainstream?

Also, why do you assume that governments trying to shut down crypto will trigger a panic sell?

Btw: do you know how much energy do data centers use? Doesn't that concern you as well?
 

mguerra

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What about the energy sustainability thing? In your opinion, do you feel this will eventually cause Bitcoin to collapse and end as a fad in history books? Stuff like these:




Will governments eventually say this is unsustainable and try to shut it down, causing crypto to crash and people to panic sell? E.g: imagine the amount of energy we need globally if the world adopts crpyto mainstream.
Do you know how much energy is required to mantain the current financial system running, with all its inneficiency and unnecessary middlemen?

You can bet it's WAY higher than BTC...
 

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Frinys

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What about the energy sustainability thing? In your opinion, do you feel this will eventually cause Bitcoin to collapse and end as a fad in history books? Stuff like these:
The energy sustainability thing is a misconception. People think that the energy is wasted, just to generate Bitcoin. That is not how it works.

The energy is used to secure Bitcoin. To rewrite the last 10 minutes of Bitcoin transactions, an attacker must have access to more energy than Bitcoin's total energy consumption for more than 10 minutes. Just to rewrite the last 10 minutes.

Since Bitcoin uses more energy than multiple countries combined, this is close to impossible. It is possible to hack a data center, and it's possible to infect the government's data systems. But Bitcoin is impossible to hack unless you have access to extreme amounts of energy.

When people start to realize that Bitcoin's electricity consumption is a good thing, it will be praised, not used as an excuse to shut Bitcoin down.

Edit: it is not possible to "shut" bitcoin down, just as it is not possible to "shut" down torrenting. Both are Peer-to-Peer communication, which basically means that there is no central server to shut down.

E.g: imagine the amount of energy we need globally if the world adopts crpyto mainstream.
This is a misconception. Bitcoin's energy consumption does not rise with adoption. It rises when either Bitcoin's price rises or electricity price lowers. The number of users does not directly affect Bitcoin's energy consumption.
 

Timmy C

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What about the energy sustainability thing? In your opinion, do you feel this will eventually cause Bitcoin to collapse and end as a fad in history books? Stuff like these:




Will governments eventually say this is unsustainable and try to shut it down, causing crypto to crash and people to panic sell? E.g: imagine the amount of energy we need globally if the world adopts crpyto mainstream.
If you wanted to destroy bitcoin, it had to be done in the first few years before bitcoin amassed enormous hashpower, decentralization, and huge network effects all over the globe.

That isn't going to happen.
When is bitcoin going to zero?
Never.
 

Timmy C

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It will be fantastic to make a boatload of money out of this, and yeh I have done okay.

Ultimately though, if people get rich, but crypto fails to make the world better for everyone, I won't see that as a good thing.
 

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It will be fantastic to make a boatload of money out of this, and yeh I have done okay.

Ultimately though, if people get rich, but crypto fails to make the world better for everyone, I won't see that as a good thing.

Lmao crypto is impossible to fail. People won't go back to carriages when they have cars.
 

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Ah yes, the bitcoin energy argument. It's a catchy argument for sure, and one I must admit I was myself conflicted with for some time. However, it appears that over time, not only is it becoming less of a problem, but it may actually be turning into a bit of a solution!


It's not that long of an article, but I know most won't read it, especially if they are biased toward the "obvious" "waste of energy" that is bitcoin, but I digress. Here are a couple snippets:

The typical anti-PoW argument​

So let’s reconstruct the environmentalist argument, which usually goes something like this:

A1 — Bitcoin mining is highly energy intensive.

A2 — The vast majority of bitcoin miners are located in China.

A3 — Bitcoin miners in China are mostly using dirty, coal-based power.

C1 — Bitcoin mining has a comparatively extreme carbon footprint.

C2 — Bitcoin is bad.

The first assumption is true, we all know that. It’s one of the fundamental reasons the Bitcoin network is so incredibly secure!

The second assumption used to be true, and is still not that far from the truth — but it’s inaccurate nonetheless. (For the sake of this post we’ll call it true, because it doesn’t really matter all that much.)

The third assumption however, is false, which ruins both conclusions.

The Takeaways​

  • Contrary to what you’ve heard in the media, bitcoin mining is not an environmental disaster. In fact, it is one of the cleanest billion-dollar industries on the planet.
  • The combined total bitcoin mining network draws less power than global gaming consoles running 4 hours per day.
  • Bitcoin mining is mainly powered on renewable energy, at levels more than four times higher than the global average (>77.6% vs ~18.2%).
  • Every year, enough hydro power is wasted in Yunnan and Sichuan alone to power the Bitcoin mining network many times over.
  • Bitcoin miners are highly mobile and can therefore serve as cornerstone demand for low-cost stranded renewables.
  • By increasing profitability and lowering reliance on subsidies, bitcoin mining can positively contribute to the development and scaling of renewable energy projects wherever conditions are the most favourable

The video game console comparison is one thing, but I think the better stat to compare to is the phantom load, i.e., the power consumed by devices that are plugged in, but not even powered on. The energy "wasted" by bitcoin is smaller than that wasted by devices that are not even being used for anything.
 

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By increasing profitability and lowering reliance on subsidies, bitcoin mining can positively contribute to the development and scaling of renewable energy projects wherever conditions are the most favourable

I love this kind of thing. Considering cause and effect, not just the cause.

If everyone could think like this, the world would be a MUCH better place. Alas, they won’t.

Driving up the demand curve does more than “rob” supply, it makes more profitable and therefore more viable the development of cheap and effective alternatives.
 

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Jun 12, 2018
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Melbourne, Australia
You gotta give it to Peter Schiff.

Of all the shit he's copped, he hasn't changed his stance in 10 + years.

I thought he would have capitulated by now.
 

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