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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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Timmy C

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I am not sure that any previous models or price histories or comparisons to other assets apply now.

The typical signs of a “top” for a security or asset are the same signs you’d expect to see in the mass adoption of a new technology.

I believe this may be mass adoption, not simply a set of top signals.

It would suck to have liquidated positions just as we cross the chasm into the early majority.

Time will tell, though.

Not there yet mate.

Maybe in another 5 years time.
 

Mainstream7

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Not that I don't see us potentially going there.

But all of this NFT stuff and everything going so digital doesn't sit well with me.

View: https://twitter.com/darrenrovell/status/1364925228195938307?s=19

It's similar to the development of social media. Everyone knows it's bad. But companies still capitalize on it.
It's capitalizing on a generation of people who are increasingly withdrawn, prefering the digital world over the physical world.
 

GPM

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Digital art... isn't that like every Pixar movie?

Well crypto is tanking. If March was historically such a bad month for it then why does no one ever talk about this in February, all you ever hear about is moon shots.

I have personally been trying to increase my hashing power and have not even looked at anything online until yesterday, right during the bloodbath lol. Talk about a serious surprise for me. Oh well, serves me right for having my head in the sand.
 

csalvato

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Digital art... isn't that like every Pixar movie?

Well crypto is tanking. If March was historically such a bad month for it then why does no one ever talk about this in February, all you ever hear about is moon shots.

I have personally been trying to increase my hashing power and have not even looked at anything online until yesterday, right during the bloodbath lol. Talk about a serious surprise for me. Oh well, serves me right for having my head in the sand.
I wouldn’t be too worried.


If you truly are worried, usually that’s a good sign to buy more.
 

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GPM

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I wouldn’t be too worried.


If you truly are worried, usually that’s a good sign to buy more.
I am worried. Everything in me says to panic and to sell. Which means that I am going to not sell on this cycle. I still have not seen mass hysteria on the internet where everyone and their dog is so smart for buying bitcoin.

I am a little miffed at the timing of this drop as I need to raise some funds by selling Eth to pay for some hardware upgrades. I have two weeks before that bill is due, so hopefully it rebounds some before that time.

I am still eyeballing the mass panic buying which indicates that is when I need to sell. Sometime before summer I would imagine.
 

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Timmy C

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I am worried. Everything in me says to panic and to sell. Which means that I am going to not sell on this cycle. I still have not seen mass hysteria on the internet where everyone and their dog is so smart for buying bitcoin.

I am a little miffed at the timing of this drop as I need to raise some funds by selling Eth to pay for some hardware upgrades. I have two weeks before that bill is due, so hopefully it rebounds some before that time.

I am still eyeballing the mass panic buying which indicates that is when I need to sell. Sometime before summer I would imagine.


Buying the fear is realizing you are the fear.

If you cant buy, at least hold.
 

Frinys

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I have never seen more different price opinions in this thread than now. Here's my opinion.

The Asian stock market is up. February Bitcoin futures expired last Friday. Positivism is returning to online crypto forums. People are starting to talk about the stimulus check. Very soon, the heaviest dip last week is more than 7 days ago, normies watching coinmarketcap and coingecko will therefore forget the dip even happened.

I don't think we have entered a bear market yet.

Ethereum has received much hate in the last few weeks for its high fees. Sooner or later people will realize that high fees == high usage. ETH relative to BTC will probably go up this month, while ADA/BTC goes down. I'm flirting with the idea of shorting ADA, but it's hard to say how long the Cardano community hive mind can push the price.
 

Timmy C

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I have never seen more different price opinions in this thread than now. Here's my opinion.

The Asian stock market is up. February Bitcoin futures expired last Friday. Positivism is returning to online crypto forums. People are starting to talk about the stimulus check. Very soon, the heaviest dip last week is more than 7 days ago, normies watching coinmarketcap and coingecko will therefore forget the dip even happened.

I don't think we have entered a bear market yet.

Ethereum has received much hate in the last few weeks for its high fees. Sooner or later people will realize that high fees == high usage. ETH relative to BTC will probably go up this month, while ADA/BTC goes down. I'm flirting with the idea of shorting ADA, but it's hard to say how long the Cardano community hive mind can push the price.
Ultimately I think cooling off here for a bit is a good idea.

Keep the celebrity posts at bay for a while, and hopefully makes us not have a premature blow-off top.
 

Frinys

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Ultimately I think cooling off here for a bit is a good idea.

Keep the celebrity posts at bay for a while, and hopefully makes us not have a premature blow-off top.
I agree, it would definitely be the best for long-term adoption. But with corona free time, stimulus checks, and the stock market going bananas, I don't think that will happen.
 

Timmy C

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For any type of mass adoption to occur.

We must get human readable addresses.

crypto addresses as they are is like having a horse powered steam engine.
 

Ondkeso

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For any type of mass adoption to occur.

We must get human readable addresses.

crypto addresses as they are is like having a horse powered steam engine.
Like these crypto domains?
 

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Timmy C

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Like these crypto domains?


Yep.

Still complicated for average folks.

one day when it's as easy as getting a new email account, then less techy people will be able to get into it
 

Kak

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Sooner or later people will realize that high fees == high usage.

I understand your point that higher transaction fees means adoption is looking good... but won’t more adoption make those fees even higher?

The reason I ask is in the crypto stuff that I’ve done, the fees are often much much higher than even a credit card fee would be. It already seems more expensive than just swiping a visa. IE, not competitive with alternatives.

How is this growing problem not considered a big a$$ headwind for the big two cryptos? Not arguing, just asking. Wasn’t easy, infinitely divisible, and nearly free, transfer of value from anyone to anyone kind of the point?
 
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Sethamus

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I understand your point that higher transaction fees means adoption is looking good... but won’t more adoption make those fees even higher?

The reason I ask is in the crypto stuff that I’ve done, the fees are often much much higher than even a credit card fee would be. It already seems more expensive than just swiping a visa. IE, not competitive with alternatives.

How is this growing problem not considered a big a$$ headwind for the big two cryptos. Not arguing, just asking. Wasn’t easy, infinitely divisible, and nearly free, transfer of money from anyone to anyone kind of the point?
IMO. Once visa and MasterCard come on board I image it would be how today’s fiat is used in the retail space. For business transactions where actual instant transfer may be needed the fees are not that expensive. Eventually ETH will fix the fees or a smaller altcoin(it could be one visa and master back) comes to the forefront for daily retail transactions.
For me it really isn’t a big deal that I can’t go buy candy bar in crypto. Can I go buy a house with a smart contract that’s digitized where I don’t have to sign millions of papers and go to a stupid office? That is what I want.

I really haven’t done any research on how to find out which of these alts are you going to win so I don’t hold any. Would it be possible though to have eventually the top few all be broadly excepted? We have the penny still today....and compared to a $100 bill which is common. Could Bitcoin be the main value holder and these other alt coins fill in the gaps to normalize the retail market? 1xyz = 0.000013 BTC or something.

I have no clue, but this is what I think about when talking about alts. I’ll do more research after the bull run to see if I should position myself in alts. How do y’all see the broad picture in 10 years @csalvato @Timmy C @GPM @AceVentures and everyone else I didn’t tag.
 

James Fake

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Ah, yes...

The Fear post was in relation to what was happening in the broad market and a hike in bond rates having people scared to buy the big dip on Thursday and Friday.

I told almost everybody I know to buy the dip in stocks and Bitcoin before this upcoming melt up to create the top. Almost none of them bought anything lol.

Within the next 2-3 weeks is when I have Bitcoin sky-rocketing towards $100k target.


These same people are going to hit me when Bitcoin is at $60k here (within this week likely) and asking me should they buy; I will send them a screenshot of me telling to buy the $46-47k dip and dca anything lower..
 
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Frinys

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I understand your point that higher transaction fees means adoption is looking good... but won’t more adoption make those fees even higher?
Yep, it will.

The fee argument illustrates why Ethereum is much more valuable than Cardano. Cardano does not even support dApps yet, while Ethereum has so many dApps that the fees are getting out of hand.

Right now, the fees are acting as proof that Ethereum is useful. The big question is how Eth 2.0 is going to turn out.
The reason I ask is in the crypto stuff that I’ve done, the fees are often much much higher than even a credit card fee would be. It already seems more expensive than just swiping a visa. IE, not competitive with alternatives.
It really depends on how money much you move and if you move between borders or not. A cup of coffee and a 10$ fee on top is expensive. But for a $1M transfer, the $10 fee is peanuts.
How is this growing problem not considered a big a$$ headwind for the big two cryptos. Not arguing, just asking. Wasn’t easy, infinitely divisible, and nearly free, transfer of value from anyone to anyone kind of the point?
It's a good question. Ethereum must solve the problem, and that's what they are trying to do with Ethereum 2.0. But it takes time, and much can happen before then. I'm open to the possibility that another blockchain can overtake Ethereum's throne in the future. But right now, no other blockchain can match it in terms of usage.

Bitcoin is the most secure trustless system in the world. That is worth very high fees if you ask me, much higher than todays.

I don't think that Bitcoin or Ethereum will ever be used for daily transactions. But other blockchain solutions exist that suit daily transactions better.
 

Xeon

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I hope and want crypto to crash for good with no point of return, so that we won't be in a world where crypto (bitcoin especially) replaces fiat and becomes the de-facto currency of all transactions.

It's scary when you think of this scenario whereby a customer pays you 0.0002 bitcoin for a product purchased via your ecommerce store, and that 0.0002 is say, for e.g, worth $45 at that time of purchase. Then next week, bitcoin suddenly dips 25%, and you're f*cked. You've made a loss. And then you've no choice but to keep hodling the bitcoin you've and wait till the right time to sell it to make a profit. f*ck. That then becomes a full-time investment job on top of the ecom store. How shitty is that. And I can't imagine trying to convert between crypto to fiat exchange rate in each calculation, and it would be messy in the accounting books as well. f*ck! Can you imagine doing corporate accounts with crypto instead of fiat?

Hope this nightmare never materializes. May bitcoin and crypto all go the hell!!!
 

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