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HOT TOPIC Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

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Kak

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You gotta give it to Peter Schiff.

Of all the shit he's copped, he hasn't changed his stance in 10 + years.

I thought he would have capitulated by now.
I’m a fan. His best content is unintended consequences of government intervention in the economy. He did something recently about the new Colorado labor laws.

He is way way more than anti Bitcoin.
 

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csalvato

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I’m a fan. His best content is unintended consequences of government intervention in the economy. He did something recently about the new Colorado labor laws.

He is way way more than anti Bitcoin.
I love Peter. He's right about everything except Bitcoin.

Though it's hard to not feel like the rest of his takes are soiled by the fact that he is missing the mark so badly on Bitcoin.

Either that, or he's right, and BTC goes to 0 and gold goes to a bagillion dollars. I won't hold my breath for that tho.
 

Kak

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I love Peter. He's right about everything except Bitcoin.

Though it's hard to not feel like the rest of his takes are soiled by the fact that he is missing the mark so badly on Bitcoin.

Either that, or he's right, and BTC goes to 0 and gold goes to a bagillion dollars. I won't hold my breath for that tho.

Proclaiming that a very intelligent economist is unquestionably “wrong” carries even a greater level of the grandiose confidence you are off-put by. Especially considering he has earned the ability to be grandiose, unlike the average BTC bull.

Peter is only really guilty of being too careful to the point where he misses out on opportunity, but there are plenty of people that aren’t messing with Bitcoin. Is Warren Buffet also “soiled” in your book? Is Ray Dalio? Are countless other billionaires?

If not, the only other explanation is that he is a gold bull... So many Bitcoin people have a visceral hatred for gold... I don’t know why. It isn’t the competition. It isn’t anything like gold, despite Grayscale insisting on the comparison. BTC has much more in common with high flying growth stocks than old fashioned gold which is more like a mature dividend aristocrat.

Honestly, devoid of this grandiosity in the Bitcoin community, that is literally begging to be humbled, I’d be heavily in on this. Like I’ve said in the past, there is little objectivity. I’m playing the other players, not my cards. There’s no hand. Just other investors sitting at the table. I don’t have much to go on, but the mania and ultra confidence is rarely a positive for long. F’ckin laser eyes, trolling a prominent Austrian economist, and eggplant emojis aren’t going to do it for me.

Look, I know we have mutual respect @csalvato ... please understand, I am just calling it like I see it. I know you guys appreciate when I do that. This is more of a statement on the crypto community as a whole and not targeted at you specifically.
 
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csalvato

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Proclaiming that a very intelligent economist is unquestionably “wrong” carries even a greater level of the grandiose confidence you are off-put by. Especially considering he has earned the ability to be grandiose, unlike the average BTC bull.

He has been calling for the collapse of bitcoin for at least 10 years, and it continues to rocket up at a meteoric pace. Every time it rockets up, he doubles down on how terrible it is and that it will go to 0.

To me, that's pretty unequivocally and objectively "wrong" and incorrect on his calls on Bitcoin at every step of the way .

This isn't about speaking loudly and being "grandiose" or having a strong opinion.

He's been objectively wrong.

Peter is only really guilty of being too careful, but there are plenty of people that aren’t messing with Bitcoin. Is Warren Buffet also “soiled” in your book? Is Ray Dalio? Are countless other billionaires?

Buffet is on record as saying the reason he invests in anything is because he understands it deeply. And he's not invested in Bitcoin.

Logically, it's safe to say he doesn't understand it and all his on-the-record statements on BTC corroborate.

Ray Dalio has also come out on the record saying that he is not against Bitcoin, and that Bridgewater is investigating it for his fund, and is speaking at Consensus 2021 this year.

Like Buffet, Dalio believes strongly that you need to know a market inside and out to participate. He has concerns (some valid, some not), and admits he doesn't know nearly enough about it to be competent participating in the market.

It's not at all surprising that two geriatrics don't fully understand BTC and I understand if they don't want to invest the time to fully understand the market to participate.

If your gauge for whether or not BTC is a good investment is because of what Buffet or Dalio are doing, you may want to consider a different compass.

For example, Paul Tudor Jones is still actively managing his fund and he has published a strong bull case for BTC, and made big moves to back that up.

As for Peter, he is informed on BTC. Very informed. And consistently made the wrong call from a social, economic and investing perspective.

If not, the only other explanation is that he is a gold bull... So many Bitcoin people have a visceral hatred for gold

IDK, this isn't my experience.

Most people I know who are in crypto were also big proponents of gold, as well. Most started by being fans of Schiff (and thus gold), including people like Erik Voorhees (founder of Shapeshift, who debated Schiff on Bitcoin in 2018)

That is, until it did absolutely nothing during the most incredible and unprecedented injection of cash into the money supply in history.

When an asset doesn't do it's job, it's not a surprise that investors sour on it. It didn't deliver on its promise. If BTC didn't go up during this huge inflation, you would see people souring on BTC, too, like I nearly did during the first 2 months of COVID where it was a total dog.

I'd hardly call that a visceral hatred. Sounds more like a rational understanding.

Look, I know we have mutual respect @cslavato... please understand, I am just calling it like I see it. I know you guys like when I do that. This is more of a statement on the crypto community as a whole and not really targeted at you specifically.

No offense taken. I enjoy the conversation.
 
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Kak

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He has been calling for the collapse of bitcoin for at least 10 years, and it continues to rocket up at a meteoric pace. Every time it rockets up, he doubles down on how terrible it is and that it will go to 0.

To me, that's pretty unequivocally and objective "wrong" and incorrect on his calls on Bitcoin at every step of the way .

This isn't about speaking loudly and being "grandiose" or having a strong opinion.

He's been objectively wrong.
Both sides carry a level of hypocrisy to the argument. The reality is that this very moment might be the cheapest a Bitcoin will ever be again, it also might be the last time it is ever this high. This is objective reality. Saying he is wrong because we are in the middle of a mania as if it is proof of the world caving to Bitcoin forever is not objective reality.

I owned Bitcoin around $4000 for a few years with nothing of notoriety happening. Did that make it objectively trash? No, that proved nothing either.


Buffet is on record as saying the reason he invests in anything is because he understands it deeply. And he's not invested in Bitcoin.

Logically, it's safe to say he doesn't understand it and all his on-the-record statements on BTC corroborate.

Ray Dalio has also come out on the record saying that he is not against Bitcoin, and that Bridgewater is investigating it for his fund, and is speaking at Consensus 2021 this year.

Like Buffet, Dalio believes strongly that you need to know a market inside and out to participate. He has concerns (some valid, some not), and admits he doesn't know nearly enough about it to be competent participating in the market.

It's not at all surprising that two geriatric don't fully understand BTC and I understand if they don't want to invest the time to fully understand the market to participate.

If your gauge for whether or not BTC is a good investment is because of what Buffet or Dalio are doing, you may want to consider a different compass.

My gauge is me. Not other people. Sometimes I’m very right. Sometimes I’m wrong... but I haven’t turned it over to one of them for a reason.

For example, Paul Tudor Jones is still actively managing his fund and he has published a strong bull case for BTC, and made big moves to back that up.

See this just looks like confirmation bias to me.

IDK, this isn't my experience.

Most people I know who are in crypto were also big proponents of gold, as well. Most started by being fans of Schiff (and thus gold), including people like Erik Voorhees (founder of Shapeshift, who debated Schiff on Bitcoin in 2018)

That is, until it did absolutely nothing during the most incredible and unprecedented injection of cash into the money supply in history.

When an asset doesn't do it's job, it's not a surprise that investors sour on it. It didn't deliver on its promise. If BTC didn't go up during this huge inflation, you would see people souring on BTC, too, like I nearly did during the first 2 months of COVID where it was a total dog.

I'd hardly call that a visceral hatred. Sounds more like a rational understanding.

The dollar, despite being joined by a shit load new dollars, has NOT experienced much movement in the DXY. In fact, it has rallied with Bitcoin over the last 3 months. Why? Well I believe that the foreign banks doing the same shit keeps the ratio between currencies similar...

That said, the traders are ruling the roost. When NOMINAL bond yields are rising because of a bond sell off, not because of the fed tightening, they still sell gold. The real reason for the sell off? The real rate... Which is negative. Treasuries have stomped gold. They will ultimately decouple when investors inevitably view them as worthless at any rate. But for now, gold has been clobbered based on old sentiment of this coupling.

Basically, despite the cash injection and inflation fears, the rejection of bonds by the investor market, and the rise in yields, investors have not decoupled them.

Gold has underperformed my expectations even given the circumstances we have had over the last 6 months. Yes. But the dollar hasn’t fallen to 85-80-75-70 yet. Give it time, it very well might. The market demand for yield will be sky high, but the fed will be buying them all anyway. The rate will finally be nonsense to the investors, even if it already is today.

For now we have 1-2% measured relative movement in the dollar, down then up. So Bitcoin goes up 360%? That’s not correlation. That’s not an inflation hedge. It is something else entirely. If it was “the new gold,” or some kind of inflation hedge, the yeilds would have killed it too.


8A05A0BE-6AE8-4D3E-BE9C-BECE9FB6FA35.jpeg
EBE8BFA8-1A3C-4940-B489-3B9777DC1137.jpeg41999F00-D449-4FB3-869A-905EEA181803.jpeg
 

Timmy C

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Proclaiming that a very intelligent economist is unquestionably “wrong” carries even a greater level of the grandiose confidence you are off-put by. Especially considering he has earned the ability to be grandiose, unlike the average BTC bull.

Peter is only really guilty of being too careful to the point where he misses out on opportunity, but there are plenty of people that aren’t messing with Bitcoin. Is Warren Buffet also “soiled” in your book? Is Ray Dalio? Are countless other billionaires?

If not, the only other explanation is that he is a gold bull... So many Bitcoin people have a visceral hatred for gold... I don’t know why. It isn’t the competition. It isn’t anything like gold, despite Grayscale insisting on the comparison. BTC has much more in common with high flying growth stocks than old fashioned gold which is more like a mature dividend aristocrat.

Honestly, devoid of this grandiosity in the Bitcoin community, that is literally begging to be humbled, I’d be heavily in on this. Like I’ve said in the past, there is little objectivity. I’m playing the other players, not my cards. There’s no hand. Just other investors sitting at the table. I don’t have much to go on, but the mania and ultra confidence is rarely a positive for long. F’ckin laser eyes, trolling a prominent Austrian economist, and eggplant emojis aren’t going to do it for me.

Look, I know we have mutual respect @csalvato ... please understand, I am just calling it like I see it. I know you guys appreciate when I do that. This is more of a statement on the crypto community as a whole and not targeted at you specifically.
It's the red isn't it?

I knew I should have gone with blue eyes right from the start.
 

GPM

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I like when people cry about crypto energy use with today's solutions. As in they look to future issues with today's solutions. As everything progresses so do the solutions.

But but but it's unsustainable! Energy usage is only going to increase! Know what else is going to increase? Our ability to solve energy issues.

The sky is always falling, the world is always ending. Don't use that as an excuse to put your head in the sand.
 

Timmy C

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When I look to the future, I don't see gold as a store of value, and that's the truth.

The bull market will end, but that still doesn't change my opinion.

I guess that's why there's a market, as not everyone will agree.

Why not hold both?
I have held and bought bitcoin for years and decided to buy gold at the time covid hit.

For one reason only:
I see bitcoin as the future, but gold in the current minds of the hive minds persuaded me to get that also for protection.

Doesn't matter. I don't hate gold. It just isn't a long term store of value or inflation hedge in my eyes. Not since Bitcoin.

The intersection of technology, economics, geopolitics, and history all points towards bitcoin for me.

How many companies accept bitcoin as a form of payment?

How many companies accept gold?
 

MitchC

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I bought an office desk online the other day in Australia and when I got to the payment page they accepted Bitcoin, that was a pleasant surprise but the potential is there for it to be the norm sooner that people might expect.

shopify changed the game when it came to building mobile friendly ecom stores, all it would take is 1 company to do that with Bitcoin.

I believe the way they accepted it was through coinspot which probably has a very simple to install shopify connection.
 

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Proclaiming that a very intelligent economist is unquestionably “wrong” carries even a greater level of the grandiose confidence you are off-put by. Especially considering he has earned the ability to be grandiose, unlike the average BTC bull.

Peter is only really guilty of being too careful to the point where he misses out on opportunity, but there are plenty of people that aren’t messing with Bitcoin. Is Warren Buffet also “soiled” in your book? Is Ray Dalio? Are countless other billionaires?

If not, the only other explanation is that he is a gold bull... So many Bitcoin people have a visceral hatred for gold... I don’t know why. It isn’t the competition. It isn’t anything like gold, despite Grayscale insisting on the comparison. BTC has much more in common with high flying growth stocks than old fashioned gold which is more like a mature dividend aristocrat.

Honestly, devoid of this grandiosity in the Bitcoin community, that is literally begging to be humbled, I’d be heavily in on this. Like I’ve said in the past, there is little objectivity. I’m playing the other players, not my cards. There’s no hand. Just other investors sitting at the table. I don’t have much to go on, but the mania and ultra confidence is rarely a positive for long. F’ckin laser eyes, trolling a prominent Austrian economist, and eggplant emojis aren’t going to do it for me.

Look, I know we have mutual respect @csalvato ... please understand, I am just calling it like I see it. I know you guys appreciate when I do that. This is more of a statement on the crypto community as a whole and not targeted at you specifically.

I really like Peter and agree with most of his ideas and arguments, however I believe that he is biased when it comes to bitcoin (regardless of him being eventually right or wrong about bitcoin).

I have seen him in debates about Bitcoin, and as he was giving solid and rational arguments for gold, when the other person debating saying anything positive about bitcoin he, first didn't let him finish (first sign of prejudice against the topic) and automaticaly argue against it and generally with arguments that could also apply to what he argued previously about gold. That alone to me is a huge red flag that someone is being closedminded about a topic. Is not only about the arguments he uses (some of them are solid, others not so much) but about how he uses them.

Probably there is more to it, but at least the impression I get is that he is such a gold maximalist that he feels the need to defend "his team" the same way a football fan would do. In my opinion, someone is not less of a radical as the average bitcoin maximalist just for being a reputed economist.

Even brilliant and respected professionals can be wrong from time to time. And the more prestigious you are, the more likely that you get overconfident. It is human nature after all.

That is a thing I love about Dalio, his obsession with looking at things from different perspectives. And the way he articulates his view on bitcoin is no exception.

I agree with you about the trolling, but to me it looks like Peter actually has fun with it, if not he would't have put the eggplant emoji in his name or post certain things to trigger the trolls.
 
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Kevin88660

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When I look to the future, I don't see gold as a store of value, and that's the truth.

The bull market will end, but that still doesn't change my opinion.

I guess that's why there's a market, as not everyone will agree.

Why not hold both?
I have held and bought bitcoin for years and decided to buy gold at the time covid hit.

For one reason only:
I see bitcoin as the future, but gold in the current minds of the hive minds persuaded me to get that also for protection.

Doesn't matter. I don't hate gold. It just isn't a long term store of value or inflation hedge in my eyes. Not since Bitcoin.

The intersection of technology, economics, geopolitics, and history all points towards bitcoin for me.

How many companies accept bitcoin as a form of payment?

How many companies accept gold?
The advantage of gold over bitcoin is that it does not need a community.

Bitcoin is just a string of open source code that an engineer can recreate it in a few hours. So many competitors in the altcoin space have failed because they cannot replicate the strength of the bitcoin community.

If you have enough people believing in it and refuse to sell it and market it to the world then the sky is limit. If everyone is skeptical and playing short term pump and dump after a 20 percent price rise then the project will be dead.

Thats why you see the bitcoin whales spreading the hate against other projects. There is fundamentally no technical superiority about bitcoin over other crypto. It is the people and the consensus around it making it valuable.

It is the same network effect like a social media. There is nothing stopping twitter users and engineers to quit the platform to replicate it elsewhere. In theory it is easy but in practice not so.

if you are a believer of gold, you don’t have to worry about people recreating gold properties within a few hours. If we have found it we would have know it, given the last few thousand years of monetary history. The scarcity, malleability and durability of it has won the test of time. You do not have to be an insecure gold maximalist calling silver and platinum shit metals on twitter everyday.
 

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Timmy C

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The advantage of gold over bitcoin is that it does not need a community.

Bitcoin is just a string of open source code that an engineer can recreate it in a few hours. So many competitors in the altcoin space have failed because they cannot replicate the strength of the bitcoin community.

If you have enough people believing in it and refuse to sell it and market it to the world then the sky is limit. If everyone is skeptical and playing short term pump and dump after a 20 percent price rise then the project will be dead.

Thats why you see the bitcoin whales spreading the hate against other projects. There is fundamentally no technical superiority about bitcoin. It is the people and the consensus around it making it valuable.

It is the same network effect like a social media. There is nothing stopping twitter users and engineers to quit the platform to replicate it elsewhere. In theory it is easy but in practice not so.

if you are a believer of gold, you don’t have to worry about people recreating gold properties within a few hours. If we have found it we would have know it, given the last few thousand years of monetary history. The scarcity, malleability and durability of it has won the test of time. You do not have to be an insecure gold maximalist calling silver and platinum shit metals on twitter everyday.


* I disagree.

But anyway, it doesn't matter as you just don't invest in Bitcoin if you believe that.

We will see who was right in the end.

Wish you luck.
 

Timmy C

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I can see the argument for holding harder assets such as gold and silver in times like these.

I think gold and bitcoin people agree on most things.

The only disagreement is what the superior asset is now.
 

Kevin88660

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* I disagree.

But anyway, it doesn't matter as you just don't invest in Bitcoin if you believe that.

We will see who was right in the end.

Wish you luck.
I trade what others believe in. I do believe in buying the dips in this bull cycle for btc and quality alt.

I just cite one advantage gold has over crypto. It is not community dependent.

The technology is open source. The value comes from the community.

Saying that the value is community driven is not necessarily trivializing it.
 
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MitchC

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Saying that the value is community driven is not necessarily trivializing it.

I agree, and Facebook, the example you used, is the perfect comparison. Really the whole value of bitcoin is the community, there’s a million other alt coins that can do what it does and maybe better than it does it but Bitcoin has the community. You could build a “better” social media but Facebook is still going to be the king.

Considering Bitcoin now has Elon musk and other big names and companies invested in it, that’s going to be a very hard community to beat. Not to mention all of the exchanges, atms, stores accepting it, miners, people talking about it, first mover advantage, branding etc.
 

Kevin88660

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I agree, and Facebook, the example you used, is the perfect comparison. Really the whole value of bitcoin is the community, there’s a million other alt coins that can do what it does and maybe better than it does it but Bitcoin has the community. You could build a “better” social media but Facebook is still going to be the king.

Considering Bitcoin now has Elon musk and other big names and companies invested in it, that’s going to be a very hard community to beat. Not to mention all of the exchanges, atms, stores accepting it, miners, people talking about it, first mover advantage, branding etc.
A lot of btc whales are pushing for institutional development towards the next stage. Tell the public company to be the first, rather than the last company to convert some cash reserve into bitcoin.

Other coin community do not have the resources or the liquidity depth to fulfill such goals.
 

csalvato

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See this just looks like confirmation bias to me.

I won't claim to be immune to confirmation bias. I'm not that stupid.

However, you put forward that some billionaires aren't into BTC as if that has some sort of weight.

Then you backtrack and say you only think for yourself and ignored the fact that 1 of the 2 billionaires you mentioned by name is moving towards supporting Bitcoin.

Another example of confirmation bias, maybe?

Both sides carry a level of hypocrisy to the argument. The reality is that this very moment might be the cheapest a Bitcoin will ever be again, it also might be the last time it is ever this high. This is objective reality. Saying he is wrong because we are in the middle of a mania as if it is proof of the world caving to Bitcoin forever is not objective reality.

When he explicitly says that Bitcoin will never hit 5k, 10k, 25k and 50k, then it does, he's wrong.

When he explicitly says that Elon isn't "stupid enough" to buy bitcoin, then he does, he's wrong.

I mean, that's not my opinion. He was wrong. That's the definition of wrong, when you predict something and it doesn't come true.

These are only two examples of his BTC predictions that were wrong (he said one thing, another thing happened)

I'm not even sure why you'd want to do the mental gymnastics required to say that Schiff isn't wrong on BTC.

Note: I like Schiff. I think Schiff is right on everything but Bitcoin. Schiff has done great things for awareness on our economy and promoting free market economics.

Gold has underperformed my expectations even given the circumstances we have had over the last 6 months. Yes. But the dollar hasn’t fallen to 85-80-75-70 yet. Give it time, it very well might.

For sure. I personally think gold may come breaking through and both BTC and Gold will rocket upwards. Hell, maybe gold even overtakes Bitcoin in terms of relative gains, though I doubt it.

While it may break through and overtake BTC, I personally think it's days as a store of value are over, so the probability of a massive uptick is < 25%, imo. Likely, just not the most probable winner.

But that's neither here nor there: your original comment about how "crypto people" "hate gold" and I was just pointing out that most people I know personally (with 6 and 7 figure portfolios including crypto) are not anti-gold. They just soured on the investment because it didn't do what was expected.

It didn't live up to the narrative.

In today's market, narrative has a huge impact on price and performance. Fundamentals still matter, but not nearly as much as narrative.

It's hard to argue that gold has a narrative similar to equities and Bitcoin.

Maybe when reality catches up and narratives are not as important for market movements, this will change.

I personally don't foresee that for several years as we continue to "melt up" (as you put it).

Time will tell. Unlike Schiff, I don't claim to have a crystal ball. That means I can avoid being wrong because I am playing probabilities, not certainties.
 
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monfii

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In anyway, we need to stop comparing BTC to gold.

It's like comparing apples to bacon. They share some of their respective functions, but they're inherently different in nature, and, to my humble opinion, cannot be compared.
 

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Huge f*ckin' inverse head and shoulders on Bitcoin.. If it completes and breaks it in the next weeks; it's headed straight to $100k.

Hope ya'll bought that dip or $46-47k range and held like a champ.. =)

Can't buy dips...no fiat left :happy:
 

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EvanOkanagan

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Huge f*ckin' inverse head and shoulders on Bitcoin.. If it completes and breaks it in the next weeks; it's headed straight to $100k.

Hope ya'll bought that dip or $46-47k range and held like a champ.. =)
Are you going to continue holding if it hits 100k or selling off at that point?
 

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Actually it is a good question, what does one do when it hits 100k? Wait for it to hit 500k?
Personally, my target is 500k, which would roughly match the 2019 market cap of gold.

I think it could go much higher than that, but that's the price target I'm expecting.

I don't anticipate selling much before then. Maybe I will sell 1-2 BTC at 100k/coin and get a mortgage on a rental property or something.
 

Sethamus

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Personally, my target is 500k, which would roughly match the 2019 market cap of gold.

I think it could go much higher than that, but that's the price target I'm expecting.

I don't anticipate selling much before then. Maybe I will sell 1-2 BTC at 100k/coin and get a mortgage on a rental property or something.
This is your 2021 target?
 

Timmy C

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Jun 12, 2018
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Huge f*ckin' inverse head and shoulders on Bitcoin.. If it completes and breaks it in the next weeks; it's headed straight to $100k.

Hope ya'll bought that dip or $46-47k range and held like a champ.. =)


I don't know where the sell button is on any exchanges.

Permanent HODL.
 

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