Bitcoin / Cryptocurrency Discussion (And Predictions)

[c4n]

Your tasteless out-of-the-line comment won you the second space on my ignore list. Congratulations.

 

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[James Fake]

Today, my mother (60+ years) asked me about BTC. And then she mentioned ETH is also doing well.

Lol. Peers that are very outside the crypto space are mentioning and telling others about their gains. I think we know what time it isssssss: Pullback time!!

We have Bitcoin continuing to go up on Sell dominated volume and continued bearish divergence that is making its appearance on higher and higher time frames as we go up.

I got out completely at $40,000. I still foolishly hold this short from near $40,000 but I think it's more so out of boredom as I know it'll be some steady patience needed when to pile back in. I do think though (that despite the short): Getting completely out & awaiting pullback will in hindsight be a huge play.

As many others mentioned before; shorting is not very wise in a full on bull trend lol so I def do not recommend. Holding is the way to go. (that is: ya know.... unless I add on another 30%-40% cause I swing the mid-trend tops and bottoms *evil laughter*)

 

[James Fake]

I do want to add this in about institutional trading. I think there is a misconception in the crypto space that all and every institutional investor are diamond hands holders. They are not.

They have active trade desks and will actively trade the mid-term swings. They will accumulate and sell and take profit. Will they unload their whole portfolio? No. Will they reduce risk exposure and pull profit on the way up? Yes. Are they more patient and disciplined and able to see and commit to their long-term trend predictions? Yes. Do they have rules in place to cut off winners as they get bigger? YES.

Institutions would much rather Sell, reduce risk, and save gains and cry as it continues to go up (waiting for a pullback) than to diamond hands & bag hold onto a loser; I can guarantee you that. It is all about risk management for them.

They incorporate a CRAP LOAD of math, and they follow by it NO MATTER WHAT. If the numbers and deviations don't add up; they will sell and reduce positions and wait until their Mathematician Programmers give the Buy & Accumulate signal (aka mostly Algos; but it still takes human input to create and MAINTAIN an algo). There is also a huge mis-conception about "Algo Bots" in that, its a set it and forget it thing. NO. Algo bots need ALOT of maintenance and adjustments along various stages. Imagine playing a football game and not adjusting anything and doing the same 3 plays over and over again... probably won't end well especially as you get crushed after half-time.

I can also guarantee you they will NOT be the last man in or standing when this bull run eventually ends.

Examples: Greyscale buys in Bitcoin. They also sell Bitcoin. They buy XRP. They will also completely dump their XRP during a sell off along with everyone else. Micro will adjust and balance their books accordingly as well. If Bitcoin goes BLOOP and dies, Micro goes bankrupt; I will have to give them a slightly higher rating in risk management than that.

Bitcoin WILL NEVER BE IMMUNE to big 25-30% pullbacks during a bull uptrend regardless of who is in it.

With that said...

Whenever the McRib sandwich is available; it means BULL market! It is the unspoken signal for whales to accumulate... jk jk. Or Am I?

 

[James Fake]

To also add in lol...

I, in no way, shape, form, or fashion can beat those guys that I mentioned above lol. So anything I say; take with only about 15% seriousness lol.

I can, however, sense "greed" "frothiness" and "fear" pretty well amongst retail traders and gamblers. Anytime I get those "feels", I look to chart technicals to see if anything backs up those feels. If it's a match, I try to go with it lol. (unless the Feds print $2,200,000,000,000, even more in QE, and keep interest rates at zero, and then print another $900,000,000,000 lol)

Anyways.. in this case.

Greedy people entering the market + going up on sell volume + buying exhaustion (bear divergences) growing + hidden huge sells "randomly" = $25,500 in about 8-10 weeks lol.

 

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[GPM]

Today, my mother (60+ years) asked me about BTC. And then she mentioned ETH is also doing well.

I was like WTF?! That's it, I'm out, time to sell

This is exactly what I am looking for. I want to see and hear stories about people who have no idea talking about this. That is when I am going to sell.

Nearly all of my holdings are in Eth, and every night for the last week or so it peaks, and then comes down during the day, only to come up higher again through the night.

I figure we are near the end and I am contemplating selling a big portion tonight if it peaks again, and then possibly buying back in if it drops during the day in a similar trend as it has before. I am looking in Canadian dollars. If it hits $1600 tonight I will sell at that, and if it hits $1450 in the day I will buy back at that.

Worst case right now is that I do very well on what I put into this, and best case is that I can accumulate a bit more before the bottom falls out on this. At which point I want to get back into it because I think looking out 3-5 years we are going to be laughing at the highs we are at now, much the way we look back at 2017/2018. The world governments are not slowing down their destruction of fiat currencies, or their meddling in the economy. I would like an equal portion of ETH to BTC, whereas right now its more like 80/20.

 

[Sethamus]

This is exactly what I am looking for. I want to see and hear stories about people who have no idea talking about this. That is when I am going to sell

Here you go: I have already talked to my dad back in October and he wasn't convinced, but slightly interested. Called me yesterday to talk about bitcoin because he heard from one of his radio shows that he listened to that is is my generation gold and a lot different than even a year ago (bigger players). How many other people are now considering buying bitcoin from hearing a national radio show mention that it is a safer buy now?

 

[GPM]

Here is some more data to look at. Trading volume of BTC isn't nearly what it was at in the last peak yet either. I think we are getting close, but we are not there yet.

I am still going to be putting in a sell order tonight and try to buy again tomorrow if it looks like it is going to follow that same pattern.

 

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[James Fake]

A quick story of when I was a really, really outside retail "investor":

Back in 2014; I bought 1 share of Tesla at $234 and 1 share of Chipotle at like ~$350 something. It was my first stock, and I only bought it cause I kept hearing about it... everywhere. I knew ZERO about stocks.

The next day when I check the prices; they both dropped like 15%. I quickly sold and never took a look again. I bought the top lol.

Months later; I check the price and it was up like 10% or so.

Moral of the Story: I need a time machine.

Here you go: I have already talked to my dad back in October and he wasn't convinced, but slightly interested. Called me yesterday to talk about bitcoin because he heard from one of his radio shows that he listened to that is is my generation gold and a lot different than even a year ago (bigger players). How many other people are now considering buying bitcoin from hearing a national radio show mention that it is a safer buy now?

Ah man.. so the years of you mentioning BTC vs. a radio segment. We must work on your sales skills man! jkjk

Here is some more data to look at. Trading volume of BTC isn't nearly what it was at in the last peak yet either. I think we are getting close, but we are not there yet.

I am still going to be putting in a sell order tonight and try to buy again tomorrow if it looks like it is going to follow that same pattern.

So true. As far as retail chatter, its definitely no where near.. maybe 30%ish?? It feels an awful like late summer of 2017, which was about like... 1/3rd of the way. Whoa, did I just say felt like 30%ish and then put a timeframe that matched that; is my gut saying something here?

Anywho, I also remember Bitcoin slowing down in transaction times; slower and slower. I think this correlates a bit to where we are too. So, if I recall, it was taking like 1-2 hours or more to get a Bitcoin transfer at THE top... I will sell then and never look at Bitcoin again for 12+ months lol.

 

[Kevin88660]

I do want to add this in about institutional trading. I think there is a misconception in the crypto space that all and every institutional investor are diamond hands holders. They are not.

They have active trade desks and will actively trade the mid-term swings. They will accumulate and sell and take profit. Will they unload their whole portfolio? No. Will they reduce risk exposure and pull profit on the way up? Yes. Are they more patient and disciplined and able to see and commit to their long-term trend predictions? Yes. Do they have rules in place to cut off winners as they get bigger? YES.

Institutions would much rather Sell, reduce risk, and save gains and cry as it continues to go up (waiting for a pullback) than to diamond hands & bag hold onto a loser; I can guarantee you that. It is all about risk management for them.

They incorporate a CRAP LOAD of math, and they follow by it NO MATTER WHAT. If the numbers and deviations don't add up; they will sell and reduce positions and wait until their Mathematician Programmers give the Buy & Accumulate signal (aka mostly Algos; but it still takes human input to create and MAINTAIN an algo). There is also a huge mis-conception about "Algo Bots" in that, its a set it and forget it thing. NO. Algo bots need ALOT of maintenance and adjustments along various stages. Imagine playing a football game and not adjusting anything and doing the same 3 plays over and over again... probably won't end well especially as you get crushed after half-time.

I can also guarantee you they will NOT be the last man in or standing when this bull run eventually ends.

Examples: Greyscale buys in Bitcoin. They also sell Bitcoin. They buy XRP. They will also completely dump their XRP during a sell off along with everyone else. Micro will adjust and balance their books accordingly as well. If Bitcoin goes BLOOP and dies, Micro goes bankrupt; I will have to give them a slightly higher rating in risk management than that.

Bitcoin WILL NEVER BE IMMUNE to big 25-30% pullbacks during a bull uptrend regardless of who is in it.

With that said...

Whenever the McRib sandwich is available; it means BULL market! It is the unspoken signal for whales to accumulate... jk jk. Or Am I?

The biggest risk is stock market correction.

When a man is hungry all food looks delicious. When there is excess liquidity all assets are promising.

Once institutional money face margin call in equity they will dump commodity and cryptocurrency. Remember the crash in March 2020. Hot money comes and go quickly.

Bitcoin didnt go up because all institutions suddenly wake up about the future of blockchain. It is more like the excess liquidity enabled institutions to make money in stocks and have excess buying power to speculate elsewhere. A small amount of money can push this small market quickly. And then observers justify this trend with “logic”.

With the liquidity dries up price will crash and then people will say bitcoin is a scam it is too volatile as an asset...

Nothing underlying the fundamental of btc has changed much from March when it was 5k.

 

[Bekit]

To also add in lol...

I, in no way, shape, form, or fashion can beat those guys that I mentioned above lol. So anything I say; take with only about 15% seriousness lol.

I can, however, sense "greed" "frothiness" and "fear" pretty well amongst retail traders and gamblers. Anytime I get those "feels", I look to chart technicals to see if anything backs up those feels. If it's a match, I try to go with it lol. (unless the Feds print $2,200,000,000,000, even more in QE, and keep interest rates at zero, and then print another $900,000,000,000 lol)

Anyways.. in this case.

Greedy people entering the market + going up on sell volume + buying exhaustion (bear divergences) growing + hidden huge sells "randomly" = $25,500 in about 8-10 weeks lol.

Your ability to sense the general sentiment is why I am always interested to read your opinion. Thank you for your analysis.

The biggest risk is stock market correction.

When a man is hungry all food looks delicious. When there is excess liquidity all assets are promising.

Once institutional money face margin call in equity they will dump commodity and cryptocurrency. Remember the crash in March 2020. Hot money comes and go quickly.

Bitcoin didnt go up because all institutions suddenly wake up about the future of blockchain. It is more like the excess liquidity enabled institutions to make money in stocks and have excess buying power to speculate elsewhere. A small amount of money can push this small market quickly. And then observers justify this trend with “logic”.

With the liquidity dries up price will crash and then people will say bitcoin is a scam it is too volatile as an asset...

Nothing underlying the fundamental of btc has changed much from March when it was 5k.

I agree, this seems like the greatest risk to me, too.

 

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[James Fake]

The biggest risk is stock market correction.

When a man is hungry all food looks delicious. When there is excess liquidity all assets are promising.

Once institutional money face margin call in equity they will dump commodity and cryptocurrency. Remember the crash in March 2020. Hot money comes and go quickly.

Bitcoin didnt go up because all institutions suddenly wake up about the future of blockchain. It is more like the excess liquidity enabled institutions to make money in stocks and have excess buying power to speculate elsewhere. A small amount of money can push this small market quickly. And then observers justify this trend with “logic”.

With the liquidity dries up price will crash and then people will say bitcoin is a scam it is too volatile as an asset...

Nothing underlying the fundamental of btc has changed much from March when it was 5k.

Preach.. Agreed 100%. Ironically.. I pulled up TSLA's chart next to BTC (both weekly candles) earlier this morning. And guess what....... lol. Interesting, right? Outside of like May 2019 to Dec 2019 on Bitcoin, they are nearly identical since March from it's pumps, dumps, and consolidation zones.



Side Note: I closed my Bitcoin short. It's acting strong like it has one more leg left mid-term.

 

[Kevin88660]

Preach.. Agreed 100%. Ironically.. I pulled up TSLA's chart next to BTC (both weekly candles) earlier this morning. And guess what....... lol. Interesting, right? Outside of like May 2019 to Dec 2019 on Bitcoin, they are nearly identical since March from it's pumps, dumps, and consolidation zones.

View attachment 36297

I am speculating a diminishing btc dominance for this 2-3weeks. Alt coin going up and btc consolidating towards the downside.

 

[Timmy C]

I went out with a friend of mine last night.

She said what is with everyone talking about Bitcoin!

You have bitcoin don't you!

How do I get it.

I didn't know everyone was talking about it......

Not a good sign guys.

 

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[csalvato]

I went out with a friend of mine last night.

She said what is with everyone talking about Bitcoin!

You have bitcoin don't you!

How do I get it.

I didn't know everyone was talking about it......

Not a good sign guys.

Yes, we are seeing the typical signs of a top.

Oh well, let it rip, I'm ready

 

[James Fake]

EDIT: Scratch this. It's going to be a bit volatile here.. the bears did a Major push in the last hour. I suspect this thing takes a nice and very quick dump. I am not sure from there quite yet.

 

[Timmy C]

Took a few hours and studied the charts..

It looks like Bitcoin is ready to rip another leg up to $44,000.. I suspect it begins its climb up within the next 24 hours. After that; I'll have to take a look, but I think like @Kevin88660 mentioned, Bitcoin will likely consolidate and then alts will pop.

I went ahead and began entering some positions again...

Crazy to think that we can keep pushing higher from here.

Although I don't like trading, you seem to be spot on quite a bit man, haha.

 

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[Xeon]

I went out with a friend of mine last night.

She said what is with everyone talking about Bitcoin!

You have bitcoin don't you!

How do I get it.

I didn't know everyone was talking about it......

Not a good sign guys.

So the tide is going to ebb back to the sea all of a sudden anytime from now, and many will be caught naked from the waist down? LOL

 

[ric2020]

Hey Fastlaners,
As Bitcoin is slowly becoming the real deal. I wanted to give Bitcoin it's own thread containing just long-term & short-term predictions & any big crypto news to help any others who's trading, hodling, etc. a place to throw in your predictions & any actions you plan on taking.

I see the current stage of Bitcoin & crypto as the new Napster & Limewire. Industry bigs (middle-men) will do all they can to fight it & shut it down, but they will soon find out - You can't beat the under-lying ideals & world-changing tech. It will carry on & win out in other forms because the market has experienced the benefits and the market always wins (it will even beat out government regulations).

Bitcoin is in the experienced the benefits stage. As more and more adopt to use Bitcoin as a form of payment (even if the sellers offering to take Btc as payment are valuing on speculative price/trading); the fact remains: They are still using Bitcoin as currency. It is being used as the real deal of exchange between goods & money.

Predictions Nov 8, 2017:
A fork titled B2X was recently cancelled (or "suspended") by their own backers & creators. This is going to give Btc a big bull-run for the next week or so to ~$9,000.

Once it hits this; if the bull-run slows down; a market correction drop of ~20-30% will hit around early or mid December. This will be a short-lived correction though as many are waiting on the sideline (who haven't jumped in the game) for this drop to happen and ready to buy into Bitcoin.

With or without this market correction happening; I strongly believe Btc will at least flirt with $10k before the year is over with.

My actions: I am going to Hodl until I see about a ~15% drop then going to sell half of my coins to later re-buy in once it begins climbing back from the drop. Then Hodl, Hodl, Hodl.

Bitcoin is for Sidewalkers

 

[Timmy C]

Bitcoin is for Sidewalkers

Cool story bruh.

 

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[James Fake]

Crazy to think that we can keep pushing higher from here.

Although I don't like trading, you seem to be spot on quite a bit man, haha.

Eh, I had to take it all back lol. The bears pushed it really hard in the last hour, and then just disappeared. Imagine a bear pushing a rock all the way to the edge of a cliff and then leaving.

I got a feeling that they come back later while the US sleeps and pushes it over lol. Kind of like January 4th situation where it dumped super fast to $27k but recovered in a flash.

 

[Timmy C]

 

[Beebop27]

View attachment 36301

Chinese New Year,
Friday
12 February

 

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[PetePreneur]

Aaaand I'm out! It's been a pleasure everyone!

It's been a long 3 years, but I've finally cashed out of crypto for now.

I was one of the idiots that bought the top back in December 2017, invested in a number of shitcoins, only to see my money drop from about $15,000 to $1,500.

I then eventually bought about $2,000 (I think) worth of VeChain back in June 2019 after the Walmart China deal and it's gone back up to about $15,000 from there!

I actually sold it slightly early before VET has just had a small pump, but I've come to learn that it's a waste of time trying to time the market, so I'm okay with not making quite as much as I possibly could have from it. Although, I did see a pattern of things moving from Bitcoin to alts, so maybe I am a little bit annoyed at myself for panic selling there haha.

At the time when I first bought in I was selling on Amazon and was looking at getting out of that anyway, so crypto seemed like a good way of in theory tripling up my money quickly by riding the hype, before cashing out and deciding on what to go into next, but I'll let you be the judge of how that plan worked out haha.

My reasons for cashing out now are as follows:

I feel too many people have been burned by this in the past like me, so they'll be looking at cutting their losses or taking profits in fear of everything crashing again.

Most of the people invested in this are smarter and more experienced this time around vs 2017. You've got both the 2017 lot and institutional investors making up the majority of the game this time, so I can't see us reaching the same point of delusion as last time because people are looking at the vertical Bitcoin chart and starting to panic because we've seen it all before haha.

Tether is apparently having some sort of a ruling on January 15th I think, which could apparently result in it collapsing? I don't know much about this, but the rumour is still concerning nevertheless.

I'm starting to hear stories of people on this and Reddit of their friends and family asking about Bitcoin, which is a classic sign of a bubble.

I can see here in the UK Coinbase is the 20th most downloaded app on Apple's free list, so even though it reached number 1 at the height of 2017, it's anyone's guess if we will see the same craze as that because of the amount of people who got completely destroyed in 2018 or people knowing those people that will discourage as many people from jumping in.

I actually have a plan of what I want to do with the money too this time, which is to buy more stock for my new business, so I'm going to need it desperately soon anyway and therefore it's riskier than before.

I wish everyone the best of luck and I will most likely be back in a couple of years, but for now I think it's getting too parabolic for it to last much longer. I just couldn't live with myself having seen the signs of a crash and ignoring them.

This might be a pretty dumb decision, but only time will tell I guess!

Thanks everyone!

 

[Andy Black]

I went out with a friend of mine last night.

She said what is with everyone talking about Bitcoin!

You have bitcoin don't you!

How do I get it.

I didn't know everyone was talking about it......

Not a good sign guys.

Someone messaged me out of the blue yesterday. I only vaguely know him and we’ve not spoken in a couple of years. He was wondering if I knew about Bitcoin. He makes his money playing in a band.

I know nothing about Bitcoin (it’s one of those rabbit-holes I’m deliberately avoiding). It does seem like a shoe-shine moment though....

 

[csalvato]

Aaaand I'm out! It's been a pleasure everyone!

It's been a long 3 years, but I've finally cashed out of crypto for now.

I was one of the idiots that bought the top back in December 2017, invested in a number of shitcoins, only to see my money drop from about $15,000 to $1,500.

I then eventually bought about $2,000 (I think) worth of VeChain back in June 2019 after the Walmart China deal and it's gone back up to about $15,000 from there!

I actually sold it slightly early before VET has just had a small pump, but I've come to learn that it's a waste of time trying to time the market, so I'm okay with not making quite as much as I possibly could have from it. Although, I did see a pattern of things moving from Bitcoin to alts, so maybe I am a little bit annoyed at myself for panic selling there haha.

At the time when I first bought in I was selling on Amazon and was looking at getting out of that anyway, so crypto seemed like a good way of in theory tripling up my money quickly by riding the hype, before cashing out and deciding on what to go into next, but I'll let you be the judge of how that plan worked out haha.

My reasons for cashing out now are as follows:

I feel too many people have been burned by this in the past like me, so they'll be looking at cutting their losses or taking profits in fear of everything crashing again.

Most of the people invested in this are smarter and more experienced this time around vs 2017. You've got both the 2017 lot and institutional investors making up the majority of the game this time, so I can't see us reaching the same point of delusion as last time because people are looking at the vertical Bitcoin chart and starting to panic because we've seen it all before haha.

Tether is apparently having some sort of a ruling on January 15th I think, which could apparently result in it collapsing? I don't know much about this, but the rumour is still concerning nevertheless.

I'm starting to hear stories of people on this and Reddit of their friends and family asking about Bitcoin, which is a classic sign of a bubble.

I can see here in the UK Coinbase is the 20th most downloaded app on Apple's free list, so even though it reached number 1 at the height of 2017, it's anyone's guess if we will see the same craze as that because of the amount of people who got completely destroyed in 2018 or people knowing those people that will discourage as many people from jumping in.

I actually have a plan of what I want to do with the money too this time, which is to buy more stock for my new business, so I'm going to need it desperately soon anyway and therefore it's riskier than before.

I wish everyone the best of luck and I will most likely be back in a couple of years, but for now I think it's getting too parabolic for it to last much longer. I just couldn't live with myself having seen the signs of a crash and ignoring them.

This might be a pretty dumb decision, but only time will tell I guess!

Thanks everyone!

Grats on your journey!

I think the main difference between 2017 and now is the level of institutional involvement, so all bets are off and I continue to hold, even through top signals.

this could burn me, but I think it’s worth noting that 2021 ≠ 2017

 

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[Deleted70138]

One of the best arguments for allocating some of your capital in bitcoin seems to be the idea, that if it becomes world-wide currency/reserve than you can benefit from rising tide, but if it fails, then you just lose small enough not to worry about.

For the sake of wearing a hair-shirt, what would be the argument against this idea?

 

[kugrenyuk]

Hi Guys,

I am newbie about cryptocurrencies.
Do you suggest any book or forum to understand well this argument ?

Thanks

The Pomp podcast is great to find out more about Bitcoin

 

[csalvato]

One of the best arguments for allocating some of your capital in bitcoin seems to be the idea, that if it becomes world-wide currency/reserve than you can benefit from rising tide, but if it fails, then you just lose small enough not to worry about.

For the sake of wearing a hair-shirt, what would be the argument against this idea?

theres nothing against this idea...

logic dictates that there’s infinite upside and worst case is you lose your whole investment.

The possibility of infinity at the risk of losing your initial investment is a drop dead simple EV calculation.

 

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[GPM]

Anywho, I also remember Bitcoin slowing down in transaction times; slower and slower. I think this correlates a bit to where we are too. So, if I recall, it was taking like 1-2 hours or more to get a Bitcoin transfer at THE top... I will sell then and never look at Bitcoin again for 12+ months lol.

Is there a good way to find out what these times are? I just sent a small amount of BTC to myself and maybe took a few minutes to so.

ETH didn't make the move I was expecting it to last night, it hovered around $1550 the whole day until this afternoon, where it then has been increasing to $1650. I have my finger on that sell button at the moment, but I am going to wait until dinner I figure.

I would like to sell some 100% digital assets and maybe pick up some of that nice hard and shiny yellow colored stuff. How cool would that be?

 

[GPM]

Well I just ran into a problem. I was using Coinbase before to sell because I can just paypal myself the money (I am in Canada, most of these want US bank accounts or EUR ones). Coinbase makes me sell to an account that I hold, not to coinbase. So I can't hold cash to buy again through them.

Is anyone using an exchange that can hold your cash that you get from selling? Essentially I need to hold the cash for a day and put in a buy order using that if the price drops.