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Forum membership removes this block.Can somebody explain to me why the CFR is used for C0VlD-19 but not for the flu when comparing the two?
Flu death rate is calculated as deaths / total estimated flu cases, and that .1% number is constantly being compared to the 2-4% estimated death rate for C0VlD-19.
I understand there isn't an estimate for total C0VlD-19 cases, but it seems misleading at best to compare it to the flu in this way. One could argue that it's deceptive, even.
In 40 weeks beginning September 29, 2019 there have been ~270,000 confirmed cases of seasonal flu in the US. CDC estimates 23,000 have died from the flu in this same time period, which gives us a CFR of 8.5%, no?
Exactly. Worst possible case scenario we have to to learn to live with a little less for a little while. No one in the United States is going to starve to death.Our moral dilemma...
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My personal take is money will come and go. But if someone dies, they're gone forever.
Economies come back. Lives don't.
Right.That would be an extremely low flu season. Are you sure it’s not 270,000 hospitalizations. Usually the flu impacts many many millions each year.
CFR is = deaths / number of cases.
for flu they estimate it because we have lots of data and years of experience that if there are X laboratory positive cases in a population, that the total number infected is some multiple of that. They have done surveillance studies in the past to show this, which samples a section of the population whether they have symptoms or not.
with CV we can’t make these estimates for total infected because we have not done the surveillance study to determine the typical total infected Vs positive tests. So we rely more on the laboratory confirmed cases. But....the CFR is certainly high because there are lots of unaccounted for cases that must be included for an accurate CFR. The question is how high. SK has done very rigorous data collection, so their CFR is probably pretty close, but CFR can be infected by more than just # Ill. Hence the high death rates in Italy and Iran.
Economy /= stock market. The stock market will bounce back as far as anyone can tell. It's the unemployment and the imploding bond market we need to be worried about.Exactly. Worst possible case scenario we have to to learn to live with a little less for a little while. No one in the United States is going to starve to death.
And again, I'm not even convinced it's going to be the economic catastrophe they're saying. Wuhan was back to work in 2 months and haven't implemented the work-from-home measures we have.
Is 60 really that elderly?
I’m not going to pretend to have any insight into the logistics of a military lockdown. It would be interesting to talk with someone in the know at the National gaurd, maybe I can find someone for my podcast. Ive had a lot of people reach out already and had some very enlightening conversations.
I think there is always risk of civil unrest when you having trying times and people are scared. We just came across a story today while doing research, basically it appears Prague intercepted a shipment of masks and medical equipment bound for Italy and distributed it to their own hospitals. We had been speculating of such problems for a while, but this was the first time we’ve seen it happen outright. I expect to see it more. Hope it doesn’t lead to armed conflicts.
Trump won’t let that happen.
More good advice from you regarding the markets would be helpfulPoint of Information:
In times like these when information is unknown, sketchy, unverifiable, and a lot of speculation, all you can do is FACTUALLY OBSERVE what is happening, and use that to make decisions.
This is why I prepped 4 weeks ago. This is why I stocked up on ammo and got 3 more weapons. This is why I was ready before the media started addressing it.
But here are the facts:
First: China's reaction to this virus was unimaginable, like straight out of an apocalyptic movie. Lock downs, full hazmat gear, quarantines, medical shanty towns ... THAT IS A FACT. From that fact, you can DEDUCE that they know the origin, threat, and likely epidemiology that his virus poses.
Second.
Trillions of dollars are at stake.
Major, billion/trillion dollar industries have gone on hiatus.
You simply don't do that for a flu. For a minor threat. Not when you stand to lose billions. To put it medically, industry knows that this can destroy the patient (the worldwide economy) if they don't address it, so they've decided to amputate a leg (a few months of industry) in order to stave it off.
Again, in life, if you really want to gauge the severity of something (or lack of severity) all you need to do is follow the money. Money is telegraphing that this is BIG, from the markets, to the shutdowns.
I don't care about pro sports -- but it was a big indicator, another datapoint to analyze. And it also made it REAL for the generally uninformed.
I hope the money flow is wrong and that yes, this is a nothing burger. The world's countermeasures perhaps can make that more likely. I hold hope as it seems to be a worldwide effort.
I stopped going to the gym 4 weeks ago. I've gained 6 pounds. I've never done well with the flu, this thing I don't want to get.
If they don't tell people to be cautious and ask governments to quarantine towns and shut down schools and universities, they might end up with a wide-spread pandemic that hits hundreds of millions all over the globe.
If they do, and the virus barely manages to infect anyone, people will look at the panic and the economic losses and compare them to the handful of cases and say "See? It was a nothingburger!"
I see this welded doors story often on here. What's the actual story, they did this to one building early on? All buildings? Some buildings?
That's been my theory I echoed privately... that this has been here for months. Considering some very high profile people have it (politicians, athletes) it leads to the idea that this isn't new, but been here since January ... and a good % of the population already has it. To be honest, I've felt pretty poorly since our event in February. Not sick, but not normal. And I live with some high risk people.
LinkedIn connection request sent from George L1. Fed doesn't predict unemployment.
2. Fed is actually *currently* predicting 3.1% GDP growth (their estimate is delayed and that's from March 18):
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We all know that's not true, but that doesn't change the fact that the information in the graphic is incorrect.
1. Fed doesn't predict unemployment.
2. Fed is actually *currently* predicting 3.1% GDP growth (their estimate is delayed and that's from March 18):
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We all know that's not true, but that doesn't change the fact that the information in the graphic is incorrect.
LMAO - at previous big company X, we used to joke about taking turns for the blame so we could get on with fixing the problem.We should all turn our focus to what really matters here; who to blame for all of this and fake news!![]()
This is Wuhan confirmed cases:
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In China, cases started climbing rapidly. They took drastic measures. 2 months later things improved.
I'm sorry but that's ridiculous. Not Dying 4 Wall Street? People are so f*cking ignorant it's insane. Who said you're dying? What are you going to die from? I hate to keep comparing this to cars and other forms of death but people like this force you. In that case, I'm "NotDying4Travel".![]()
Trump’s Focus On Restarting Economy Sparks Backlash With Viral #NotDying4WallStreet Campaign
Social media users created the #NotDying4WallStreet hashtag as a response to U.S. officials suggesting that workers defy health recommendations to reopen the economy.www.forbes.com
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