<div class="bbWrapper">I’ve been trying to stay off the social media and forum chatter. I’m not going to sort through all 80 pages of this thread to see if these links have been posted, but I searched and nothing came up.<br />
<br />
So, for those of you who like data...<br />
(And please note that I'm not an expert or MD like <a href="https://www.thefastlaneforum.com/community/members/26815/" class="username" data-xf-init="member-tooltip" data-user-id="26815" data-username="@GIlman">@GIlman</a> ... I'm just a data nerd.<br />
<br />
Hospital beds (enter in your location):<br />
<div class="bbCodeBlock bbCodeBlock--unfurl is-pending is-recrawl js-unfurl fauxBlockLink"
data-unfurl="true" data-result-id="59640" data-url="https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals" data-host="projects.propublica.org" data-pending="true">
<div class="contentRow">
<div class="contentRow-figure contentRow-figure--fixedSmall js-unfurl-figure">
<img src="/community/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fpropublica.s3.us-east-1.amazonaws.com%2Fassets%2Fcovid-hospitals%2Fsocial-card-fb.jpg&hash=39b2047b512b1882298e8235d7f874c7&return_error=1" loading="lazy" alt="projects.propublica.org" class="bbCodeBlockUnfurl-image" data-onerror="hide-parent"/>
</div>
<div class="contentRow-main">
<h3 class="contentRow-header js-unfurl-title">
<a href="https://projects.propublica.org/graphics/covid-hospitals"
class="link link--external fauxBlockLink-blockLink"
target="_blank"
rel="noopener"
data-proxy-href="">
Are Hospitals Near Me Ready for Coronavirus? Here Are Nine Different Scenarios.
</a>
</h3>
<div class="contentRow-snippet js-unfurl-desc">How soon regions run out of hospital beds depends on how fast the novel coronavirus spreads and how many open beds they had to begin with. Here's a look at the whole country. You can also search for your region.</div>
<div class="contentRow-minor contentRow-minor--hideLinks">
<span class="js-unfurl-favicon">
</span>
projects.propublica.org
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
For those also in CO, I found the link above through this CPR article:<br />
<div class="bbCodeBlock bbCodeBlock--unfurl is-pending is-recrawl js-unfurl fauxBlockLink"
data-unfurl="true" data-result-id="59641" data-url="https://www.cpr.org/2020/03/17/weeks-ahead-of-when-coronavirus-will-peak-in-colorado-hospitals-are-already-seeing-shortages/" data-host="www.cpr.org" data-pending="true">
<div class="contentRow">
<div class="contentRow-figure contentRow-figure--fixedSmall js-unfurl-figure">
<img src="/community/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fwp-cpr.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fuploads%2F2020%2F03%2F200310-ST-JOSEPH-HOSPITAL-CORONAVIRUS-HEALTH-CITY-PARK-WEST-KEVINJBEATY-01.jpg&hash=183886b89c9ad2a0d5acee36aa71e6d9&return_error=1" loading="lazy" alt="www.cpr.org" class="bbCodeBlockUnfurl-image" data-onerror="hide-parent"/>
</div>
<div class="contentRow-main">
<h3 class="contentRow-header js-unfurl-title">
<a href="https://www.cpr.org/2020/03/17/weeks-ahead-of-when-coronavirus-will-peak-in-colorado-hospitals-are-already-seeing-shortages/"
class="link link--external fauxBlockLink-blockLink"
target="_blank"
rel="noopener"
data-proxy-href="">
Weeks Ahead Of When Coronavirus Will Peak In Colorado, Hospitals Are Already Seeing Shortages
</a>
</h3>
<div class="contentRow-snippet js-unfurl-desc">It has not yet been two weeks since Colorado had its first identified case. The statewide tally stood at 183 on Tuesday night.</div>
<div class="contentRow-minor contentRow-minor--hideLinks">
<span class="js-unfurl-favicon">
<img src="/community/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cpr.org%2Ficons%2Ffavicon-32x32.png&hash=01ec846c05c160b9679eb6156f2ee9da&return_error=1" loading="lazy" alt="www.cpr.org" class="bbCodeBlockUnfurl-icon"
data-onerror="hide-parent"/>
</span>
www.cpr.org
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
The reason I've been following NYC is because of this blog post, from 3/13:<br />
<div class="bbCodeBlock bbCodeBlock--unfurl js-unfurl fauxBlockLink"
data-unfurl="true" data-result-id="59642" data-url="https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-python-and-the-pig/" data-host="www.epsilontheory.com" data-pending="false">
<div class="contentRow">
<div class="contentRow-figure contentRow-figure--fixedSmall js-unfurl-figure">
<img src="/community/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.epsilontheory.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2FER-Seattle-2.jpg&hash=d4fabc00b03f5b0677902b0496953e7d&return_error=1" loading="lazy" alt="www.epsilontheory.com" class="bbCodeBlockUnfurl-image" data-onerror="hide-parent"/>
</div>
<div class="contentRow-main">
<h3 class="contentRow-header js-unfurl-title">
<a href="https://www.epsilontheory.com/the-python-and-the-pig/"
class="link link--external fauxBlockLink-blockLink"
target="_blank"
rel="noopener"
data-proxy-href="">
The Python and the Pig
</a>
</h3>
<div class="contentRow-snippet js-unfurl-desc">The NYC healthcare system - one of the finest in the world - is about to be slammed beyond anything they have ever seen. ER</div>
<div class="contentRow-minor contentRow-minor--hideLinks">
<span class="js-unfurl-favicon">
<img src="/community/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.epsilontheory.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fcropped-epsilon-theory-logo-black-1000px-32x32.png&hash=60a60aad2137c39176a5e5583e85a3c5&return_error=1" loading="lazy" alt="www.epsilontheory.com" class="bbCodeBlockUnfurl-icon"
data-onerror="hide-parent"/>
</span>
www.epsilontheory.com
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
The link in the blog post to the NYC ILI (Influenza-like Illness) numbers are showing 1,143 on 3/19 when I ran it just now. These numbers can bridge the gap until the testing catches up.<br />
<div class="bbCodeBlock bbCodeBlock--unfurl js-unfurl fauxBlockLink"
data-unfurl="true" data-result-id="59651" data-url="https://a816-health.nyc.gov/hdi/epiquery/visualizations?PageType=ps&PopulationSource=Syndromic" data-host="a816-health.nyc.gov" data-pending="false">
<div class="contentRow">
<div class="contentRow-main">
<h3 class="contentRow-header js-unfurl-title">
<a href="https://a816-health.nyc.gov/hdi/epiquery/visualizations?PageType=ps&PopulationSource=Syndromic"
class="link link--external fauxBlockLink-blockLink"
target="_blank"
rel="noopener"
data-proxy-href="">
EpiQuery | Search for data, surveys and records on the health of New Yorkers
</a>
</h3>
<div class="contentRow-snippet js-unfurl-desc"></div>
<div class="contentRow-minor contentRow-minor--hideLinks">
<span class="js-unfurl-favicon">
<img src="/community/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fa816-health.nyc.gov%2Fhdi%2Fepiquery%2Fthemes%2Fcustom%2Fepiquery_barrio_subtheme%2Ffavicon.ico&hash=c4223e2f7ce2931cd1893985f94a873b&return_error=1" loading="lazy" alt="a816-health.nyc.gov" class="bbCodeBlockUnfurl-icon"
data-onerror="hide-parent"/>
</span>
a816-health.nyc.gov
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div>
<br />
I think that Gov. Cuomo has been doing a great job being proactive about shutting things down and testing. NYC is probably going to get hit hard, due to its population density. If it's a disaster there, I'd hate to see how it's going to look in those states that aren't social distancing (OK, FL, TX).<br />
<br />
The mountain towns here in CO are getting pummeled, due to lots of travelers and small communities. It's probably the only instance where I agree with the "endemic" labeling and saving test kits until we get more.<br />
<br />
I think the way we beat this thing (besides obviously, social distancing), is math and science. Ramp up the testing and get our healthcare workers and first responders some PPE already. And demand that they receive priority on getting their results back. It's ridiculous to have to make them self-quarantine for 5-7 days, while the rich NBA players get their results back in hours.<br />
<br />
I'm still following Italy, too. I think it's the best way of estimating when this might peak. However, the shutdown there is more severe, and thus, probably more effective, than here. You could argue that they have more elderly. Really, we're all just estimating with models and probabilities right now.<br />
<br />
For anyone who thinks that the US healthcare system is the best in the world, and we won't be like Italy, I think that you will be in for a real shock. And you should probably try traveling overseas more often.<br />
<br />
Even the doctors in Wuhan had solid systems in place... tens of thousands of medical staff brought in, planned rotations with a minimal team in full PPE in the "red zone" and everyone else in a "green zone" with tablets and remote communication to prevent spread.<br />
<br />
I see these photos of US healthcare workers PPE vs Italy and China, and I'm like WTF?<br />
<br />
Also, China has been trying different treatments on people: antivirals and drugs (remdesivir, HCQ, and others), serum antibodies. I remember reading that whistleblower doctor who died received ECMO, antivirals, reinjected serum antibodies from recovered patients. I have only heard of remdesivir being used in a compassionate case in WA, and no mention of ECMO.<br />
<br />
And all this crap about azithromycin/HCQ being a 100% miracle cure to sell headlines is infuriating. Everyone's working on it, and I'm hopeful we'll find a treatment or vaccine soon, but I am sick of all the misinformation on social media.<br />
<br />
Personally, I think it's going to be just as ugly in the US as it is in Italy, especially in areas where they're not social distancing.<br />
<br />
The sad part is that it could have been avoided; we could have looked more like South Korea or Singapore. The testing debacle and everything coming from the federal government is disgusting.<br />
<br />
And on a sort-of-related-tangent, the Epsilon Theory guy (Ben Hunt) also wrote an interesting post about the airlines bailout. Apparently, he's a PhD statistician, and he's the one that wrote that "Body Count" blog post, which probably triggered a lot of us to start looking at the math. Here's the blog post on the bailout:<br />
<div class="bbCodeBlock bbCodeBlock--unfurl is-pending is-recrawl js-unfurl fauxBlockLink"
data-unfurl="true" data-result-id="59643" data-url="https://www.epsilontheory.com/do-the-right-thing/" data-host="www.epsilontheory.com" data-pending="true">
<div class="contentRow">
<div class="contentRow-figure contentRow-figure--fixedSmall js-unfurl-figure">
<img src="/community/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.epsilontheory.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fdo-the-right-thing-1-2.jpg&hash=c5909653d27733c0c3cdcc8bb6cda6ff&return_error=1" loading="lazy" alt="www.epsilontheory.com" class="bbCodeBlockUnfurl-image" data-onerror="hide-parent"/>
</div>
<div class="contentRow-main">
<h3 class="contentRow-header js-unfurl-title">
<a href="https://www.epsilontheory.com/do-the-right-thing/"
class="link link--external fauxBlockLink-blockLink"
target="_blank"
rel="noopener"
data-proxy-href="">
Do The Right Thing
</a>
</h3>
<div class="contentRow-snippet js-unfurl-desc">Bailout the airlines and their rank-and-file employees? You bet.Bailout the CEOs? Not a chance.But that's what we're gonna do.</div>
<div class="contentRow-minor contentRow-minor--hideLinks">
<span class="js-unfurl-favicon">
<img src="/community/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.epsilontheory.com%2Fwp-content%2Fuploads%2Fcropped-epsilon-theory-logo-black-1000px-32x32.png&hash=60a60aad2137c39176a5e5583e85a3c5&return_error=1" loading="lazy" alt="www.epsilontheory.com" class="bbCodeBlockUnfurl-icon"
data-onerror="hide-parent"/>
</span>
www.epsilontheory.com
</div>
</div>
</div>
</div></div>
